The New Upside-Down Draft (1 Viewer)

[Newmancrew]

Just drafted on Fantasy Calculator from the 7 spot. This is the year to go RB/TE OR Calvin/TE or RB. There's so much value in QB's like Ryan, Big Ben and RGIII in rounds 6-8. Here it is:

QB: Newton, Freeman

RB: Martin, Best, JStew, Ingram, F Jones, Vereen

WR: Calvin, Harvin, Britt, Heyward Bey, Collie

TE: Gronk, Celek

 

[Bamac]

Tried this approach in a dynasty startup a few weeks ago from pick 5. Main difference is that the mid-round running backs are solid guys who hopefully have 1-2 years of RB2 left in them--Turner, Gore, D Williams, etc.

1. QB - Rodgers

2. TE - Gronkowski

3. WR - Cruz

4. WR - Stevie Johnson

5. RB - Reggie Bush

6. WR - Decker

7. RB - Gore

8. RB - Hills

9. N/A - (Traded for future 1st)

10. RB - Turner

11. TE - Cook

12. WR - Sanu

13. WR - LaFell

14. WR - Randy Moss

***

 

[karmarooster]

I'd love to hear Waldman weigh in this if he has a chance.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

WR are deep and similar this year after Calvin. Vick, Romo, Rivers, EMan, PMan and dare I say even Roeth make waiting on QB worthwhile too.

This is the year to go back to RB/RB in the first two rounds, or even RB/TE.

This I agree with. Although I won't be surprised if Gronk/Graham/Hernandez do as well but yet end up closer to the rest of the pack.

While G/G/H are very talented, they may be benefiting more from unique utilization than they are from unique ability. And since it's a copy-cat league, we can reasonably expect teams to try and mimic that success with their own TE's after unraveling how the Pats are doing it. The league is actually pretty well stocked with talented receiving TE's. It's just a matter of time before everyone is doing it. When that happens there won't be the same distance between the #1 ceiling and the #12 floor. Anyone not think that's what the Colts had in mind with their two TE picks this year?

Yeah...they've got an elite QB throwing to them in addition to unique ability. Not too many other teams could come close to what Brady and his 2 TE's do. Brees if he had another Jimmy Graham, Rivers if he had another Gates, Rodgers if he had another Finley and maybe Stafford if he had another Pettigrew.

If Brees, Rivers, Rodgers and Stafford do what Brady has done, you've just made the field of stud TE's go 10 deep. That was my point. Who did San Diego draft this year at TE? Who has GB drafted the last two years at TE? There are two pretty good pass catching TE's in Detroit already. That's what I'm saying. G/G/H can still be better than the rest and end up 1, 2 and 3. But there's a real chance that the gap closes. And if NE did it with 2 rookie TE's, why couldn't San Diego do it with a wiley vet and a raw but gifted rookie? Remember that some people thought it would be a year or two before Graham would ever show up because he was so raw. It's not crazy to think the gap could close sooner rather than later. Teams insert and rely on rookie pass catchers much sooner than they used to.

 

[karmarooster]

Well this is picking nits a bit, but Gronk and Hernandez didn't really do it as rookies. Last year was the 2nd season for both; as rookies they both each had about 550 yards, although Gronk had 10 TDs.

 

[karmarooster]

While I agree there are several QBs who will flirt with 4,500-5,000 yards and 30 TDs (or the equivilent in fantasy points for rushing QBs) - Stafford, Cam, Vick, Eli, Romo, possibly Ryan, IMO there are only two QBs who look likely to crack 5,000 yards and 40 TDs.

Being light on RBs is part of the original strategy - every year there are mid round guys that turn out to be solid starters, the point is to grab several and hope. In any case, it just seems like a waste to spend 2nd/3rd/4th round picks on RBs with major issues CJ, Richardson, MJD, Murray, DMC, AP, Forte, Charles, and Lycnh all seem WAY over valued to me.

ETA - you trainwreck GIF is pretty rude, considering I took the time to write this, and supposedly as a scientist I figured you would have a more articulate and researched way to express the dangers of the strategy, rather than begin the thread with a dismissive and rude animation. Nonetheless, I appreciate the feedback.

Your deviation in the plan by taking fewer RB's eliminates the solution to the problem created by passing on proven, quality RB's. You can't go light in terms of ranking and also go light in terms of roster spots reserved for RB and expect to do well. Why? Because you have to roster several RB's to increase your odds of hitting on the surprise guys who end up in the top 10.

Your system, if you limit the number of RB's you take, depends critically on hitting the target with fewer shots. Now, if you're some fantasy football genius than can do that with repeatability, you wouldn't need to employ your own strategy because you are just better at accurately predicting results. In which case you could start a rankings website and make millions.

But if you aren't, and don't be insulted because I think your aren't, you may get lucky in some particular year, but the strategy will fail in more years than not because you are gambling on long shots while taking fewer shots.

As for your comment that there isn't much difference in AJ and someone like Stevie Johnson, that's just crazy talk and sets off red flags for anything you've got to say.

I wanted to respond to this in two ways. For one, I think I may not have been clear in the OP. The goal is to skimp on RBs in the first two rounds, but not necessarily draft FEWER than normal RBs as well. I said Quantity at RB, and Quality at WR in the OP. The subsequent posts and mock drafts may not have demonstrated that, because typically in mock I only go about 10 rounds, whereas in real drafts it is quite possible to get some late round RBs who produce (Hillis in 2010). Second, I think I've needed to revise the strategy a bit due to the substance of your response. Because there are SO many quality WRs, basically running through about the 7th Round in my opinion (ending with DeSean Jackson and Antonio Brown), AND given that there are so many high upside WRs in rounds 7-10 (R. Moss. Moore, DHB, Little, Titus, Floyd(s))... I think it's important to target RBs in rounds 3 through 5.

When I did mocks to grab WRs in those mid rounds 3-5, I found that I was bypassing very good WRs in rounds 5-7 just because I needed RBs. For example, it doesn't make much sense to me to grab Beanie Wells, James Starks, JStew/DWill, Helu, Spiller, Tate, etc., when there are QUALITY WRs available like Decker, Britt, DeSean, ABrown, etc.

Thus here's a mock reflecting your criticism (rightly deserved - I appreciate the feedback). From #10/12, and PPR as always:

QB - Brady

RBs - Bradshaw, Martin, MBush, Vereen, PThomas, Taiwan Jones

WRs - Colston, Britt, R.Moss, DHB, Crabtree

TE - Gronk

(note - in a real draft I would be much more concerned with grabbing Wilson and Blount).

 

[karmarooster]

Also, to respond to the AJ v. Stevie criticism, I think that was taken out of context a bit. AJ is a beast of a WR and has the talent to put up 100 catches and 1300 yards (although has a miserable career TD%), it's just that there are red flags with him due to injury risk (not only to him but his QB), and the likelihood that the Texans transition to one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Of course he has higher upside than Stevie, who is a virtual lock for about 80/1,000-1,100/8-10 barring some sort of breakout (which is entirely possible given the slump that the Bills offense went through in the second half of last season). If AJ plays a full season, but has a bit of a reduction in output due to offensive philosophy or age, he's not far off from Stevie.

What I stand by, however, are the other WR comparisons I made in the OP. This year, everyone is high on Julio (rightfully so), but last year that guy was Dez, who has just as much upside. Dez is currently available a full round after Julio. Likewise, Percy Harvin and Maclin in the 5th round compared to someone like Greg Jennings, who has the same ceiling as those guys. Jennings has finished as WR4 two times, and Harvin finished as WR7 last year. My point is that there are TONS of very athletic WRs, and a Roddy/Julio/Marshall/Nicks/Wallace are (almost) as likely to land in the top 10 at the end of the year as DT/Austin/Dez/Harvin/Maclin/Lloyd. Obviously there are risks associated with the later guys, but they are very palatable risks.

 

[karmarooster]

As for your comment that there isn't much difference in AJ and someone like Stevie Johnson, that's just crazy talk and sets off red flags for anything you've got to say.

FYI last year in 15 games, Stevie averaged 13.7 points per game PPR; in 7 games AJ averaged 13.6 points per game PPR.

 

[Pampernick]

Kind of went with this strategy in my auction keeper phenom league and wound up with....

QB-Rodgers

RB-SJax,Dbrown

WR-Nicks, Harvin, Djax

TE-Gronk

I graded Gronk and Graham as first round value with phenom league rules.

 

[Instinctive]

As for your comment that there isn't much difference in AJ and someone like Stevie Johnson, that's just crazy talk and sets off red flags for anything you've got to say.

FYI last year in 15 games, Stevie averaged 13.7 points per game PPR; in 7 games AJ averaged 13.6 points per game PPR.

But how many of those games were actually a healthy AJ and Schaub?

 

[karmarooster]

As for your comment that there isn't much difference in AJ and someone like Stevie Johnson, that's just crazy talk and sets off red flags for anything you've got to say.

FYI last year in 15 games, Stevie averaged 13.7 points per game PPR; in 7 games AJ averaged 13.6 points per game PPR.

But how many of those games were actually a healthy AJ and Schaub?

Likely only a handful. And how many of those games were actually a healthy Stevie, before he pulled his groin and played through it, and how many were actually a healthy Fitzpatrick? Same difference.

 

[Instinctive]

As for your comment that there isn't much difference in AJ and someone like Stevie Johnson, that's just crazy talk and sets off red flags for anything you've got to say.

FYI last year in 15 games, Stevie averaged 13.7 points per game PPR; in 7 games AJ averaged 13.6 points per game PPR.

But how many of those games were actually a healthy AJ and Schaub?

Likely only a handful. And how many of those games were actually a healthy Stevie, before he pulled his groin and played through it, and how many were actually a healthy Fitzpatrick? Same difference.

It's not the same difference though. AJ has proven he can be, and physically is, and absolute monster and a stud. AJ has more 100/1500 seasons than Steve Johnson likely will in his entire career. And AJ is still in the prime age for a receiver at only 31 (iirc). And for all the talk about Andre never having a double digit TD season - the year he had 8 TDs in 8 games before the broken leg is basically a double digit TD season. Steve Smith has only ne double digit TD season. Brandon Marshall has one of 10 - he has 7, 3, 10, 6, 6 as his TD totals as a starter. Only the 3 season did he miss multiple games (he played in 14).

Andre has seasons of 8,9,8,8 - and that last one is in 8 games, the first one in 13. You don't think it's possible that he gets to double digits those seasons? Or maybe one more play breaks his way in the other two seasons?

You can worry about how many high TD seasons a guy has had before and try to say it's predictive. I'll worry about the fact that he's a physical monster, he clearly has the ability to get to double digits, he's the main receiver by far in Houston, and in healthy games over the last three years (in case we want to discount his younger, physically stronger years before) he averages about 6.5 receptions, 100 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game.

I may have just talked myself into going Andre/Fitz to start off. I had been mocking almost always with Rodgers/Brady and then hoping for Andre or Fitz, but typically ending up with two of Julio/Green/Marshall/Dez in rounds 2/3. TEs have never made it to me in round 2.

I'll take AJ in the 2nd all day if I can. And WAY over Steve Johnson.

 

[karmarooster]

Sure it's POSSIBLE that AJ catches more than 10 TDs for the first time in his career, but I don't think it's likely given his age, injury risk, and changing offensive philosophy. That 8 game season in 2007 is ancient history at this point. You point out that AJ has more 1500 yard seasons that Stevie, true... but Stevie has more double-digit TD seasons than AJ already in just 4 seasons. Also I'm certainly not saying that you shouldn't take AJ in the 2nd over Stevie, or that Stevie will be better than him straight up... the OP was pointing out that you can take a Brady/Gronk/Graham in Round 2 and get quality WRs through the first half-dozen rounds. The elite QBs and TEs will go in early runs.

The reality is that of course Andre has higher upside than Stevie. He could hit the fountain of youth and return to his 100+/1,500 yard/8 TD seasons of his glory years. It's possible, but I wouldn't say its likely.

It's much more likely IMO that AJ plays a bit below the output of those years when the Texans had a prolific passing offense, not much at RB, a weak defense that forced them to catch-up, and very few options outside of AJ. Most of those factors are no longer true - they have possibly the strongest 1-2 RB punch in the league, no longer have a 4,000 yard+ passing offense, a very strong defense, although they still remain with few passing options outside of AJ.

Outside of his two amazing 1500 yard season, AJ has put up the following: 86/1,200/8 in in 2010, and 100/1,150/5 in 2006. Returning that neighborhood is much more likely than going 1,500 again. FWIW, FBGs staff projections all have him between 82-86 receptions / 1,198-1,270 yards / 8 TDs.

So I aks you again: how far off, on a PPG basis, are those numbers from what Stevie has done in the last two years? He's been pretty consistent at 76-82 / 1,000 / 7-10. Mind you that was his breakout 3rd year, and last year, again, playing with a hurt groin and an ineffective Fitzpatrick for half the season. He ALSO has the possibility of improving and getting up into the 1,100-1,200 yard range.

In any case, we're getting somewhat off the path of what I was getting at in the OP regarding WRs this year. Other than Calvin, there are a number of 'elite' guys who I don't expect to VASTLY outperform guys much lower. Roddy White compared to Percy Harvin. Mike Wallace compared to Antonio Brown. Brandon Marshall compared to Demaryius Thomas. Jennings compared to Miles Austin.

WRs are now the deepest position with literally dozens having the ability to go over 1,000 yards.

 

[Robo35]

Love the article guys and love reading your comments but i have a question my league is a 2 qb, 2rb, 4 wr and 1 te

How does this affect ur guys strategy also ppr 6 pt td thx

 

[karmarooster]

Love the article guys and love reading your comments but i have a question my league is a 2 qb, 2rb, 4 wr and 1 te How does this affect ur guys strategy also ppr 6 pt td thx

Obviously QBs are bigger in your league and I would expect Rodgers and Brady to both be top 5 picks.

 

[Instinctive]

Love the article guys and love reading your comments but i have a question my league is a 2 qb, 2rb, 4 wr and 1 te How does this affect ur guys strategy also ppr 6 pt td thx

Getting two stud QBs becomes a dramatic advantage. Really high chance I would go QB/QB.

 

[karmarooster]

Attempted to implement this strategy in a recent $$ draft, not a mock. Although there's a caveat, this league is .5 PPR for RBs, but full PPR for WRs and TEs - which explains some of the RB value available in the mid rounds. Drafted from the 6 spot out of 12 teams:

QB - Tom Brady (1st) (QB1 - yes, over Rodgers)

WRs - Brandon Marshall (2nd) (WR5)

Roddy White (3rd) (WR7)

Brandon Lloyd (5th) (WR18 - a slight reach, but I wanted to pair with Brady)

Denarius Moore (7th) (not so happy about this anymore given his hamstring situation)

RBs - Frank Gore (6th) (RB24)

Kevin Smith (8th)

Deangello Williams (9th)

Jacquizz Rodgers (10th)

Mikell Leshoure (11th)

Shane Vereen (12th)

TE - Antonio Gates (4th) (TE3)

Love this team at QB, WR, TE, but obviously RBs are going to be somewhat of a guessing game. To buy myself some time to sort out the RB situation, I was happy to pick up Kevin Smith as he should be a bona-fide starting RB for at least the first 2 weeks, and thereafter Leshoure will be worked in. This league starts 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, and a flex, so picking RB2 and Flex is going to be tricky especially after Leshoure comes back and muddles the Detroit backfield situation.

Also, rather than drafting Moore, I could've had one of Hills/McGahee/D.Brown, and then grabbed Nate Washington or Greg Little later. The downside to going heavy on QB/WR/TE in the early draft means that you have little flexibility in the mid-late rounds where you need to take a boatload of RBs, and I didn't feel flexible enough to grab value at other positions because I was so behind at RB. And I think I'm ok with only 4 WRs right now, because that position is typically the easiest to identify waiver wire pickups (Laurent Robinson, Victor Cruz, where are you?) but I'm also feeling a little shaky at backup TE given Gates' history.

Thoughts? Given the scoring format, I'm happy enough with this team.

 

[Ace08]

I'm a huge proponent of the original upside down method. Been using it for the last 5 years (way before Waldman wrote that article) and the results have simply been wonderful. My league mates started out hating me....last year I actually caught a couple trying to mimic me. To me elite WR's are just absolute money in ppr leagues and I have a pretty good eye for "mining" rb's late so it works great for me.

I'll be honest...I hate this new version. I've mocked it, studied it, analyzed it. Absolutely hate it. You're better off drafting traditionally IMO. It's one thing to wait on RB's where the nature of the position lends itself to being able to take advantage of the rapidly changing landscape...middle round WR's simply won't keep up with the elite guys who are all gone by the end of the 3rd round.

To each their own..I know alot of people have made up their minds this year that the middle round WR's aren't that far off from the higher drafted ones.....I couldn't possibly disagree more. This would be a great thread to revisit after this upcoming season just to see how it all panned out.

I'll be sticking to regular upside down drafting in all 4 of my money ppr leagues. I'm a firm believer it's a fundamentally sound philosophy. This year more than ever....which flies in the face of what many on this site think will happen apparently.

 

[karmarooster]

Yes but I deviated somewhat from the OP, which was to go QB/TE in the first two rounds, and focus on the sick Value WRs of the middle rounds. Marshall and White are not the same as Percy, Decker, Austin, Maclin, etc. Instead I went QB-WR-WR-TE-WR.

Also, if you don't have a shot at Calvin, which WR are you going to take in the first round? The drop off between Calvin and whoever you label as WR2-5ish is pretty significant, and there's no clear WR2 or WR3 to me. Fitz is up there, and Julio too if you want him, but I can't see taking either one in the first round. Maybe at the turn Fitz/Julio?

I won a league last year going Calvin/Roddy at the turn, but this year doesn't seem to be the year to take a WR in the first round who isn't name Calvin Johnson. I just think you're better off getting one of the top 2 QBs or top 2 TEs, rather than taking the 2nd WR off the board in the first round.

Thanks for the commentary, tho! I appreciate contrary views like yours.

 

[rickyg]

I have been a pretty big proponent if not necessarily "upside down" drafting, but "against the grain drafting" for several years now. However, im not so sure that upside down deafting works so well anymore. Savvy owners have caught in and im seeing more an more people grabbing stud qbs and wrs in rounds 1 and 2 before going rb. So ive been testing out going back to traditional rb heavy drafting in the early rds. Here is a mock that I completed today going the VERY traditional route of 3 straight rbs. I picked from the 8 spot:

1) d. Murray - passed on Brady

2) Sjax - workhorse on a jeff fisher team

3) t Richardson - if he is what we think he can be 3rd rd will be a steal

4) jordy Nelson - having a strong camp and on best passing offense in nfl. Also the new apple of rodgers eye. No qualms about him as my wr1

5) a. Hernandez - might challenge for top tight end this year

6) p. garçon - really clicking with rgIII and could be a steal

7) k. Britt - risky with the surgeries but he is back at practice and 7th rd could end up a steal.

8) rgIII - high upside pick and high cieling given the likely high rushing yds and rushing td totals from him this year even if his passing isnt amazing

9) Roethlisberger - backed up a rookie qb with a solid bet and can play matchups.

10) g. Little - I think he will be big this year.

11) a. Collie - another potential steal in the 11th rd

12) r. Hillman - if mcgahee goes down look out.

13) s. vereen - could potentially be the starter in NE.

All in all I am happy with this draft and I'm seriously considering going this way if the trend continues this year with upside down drafting. Interestingly enough, the new upside down drafting might just be going rb heavy in first 3 rds!

 

[Ace08]

Karma...I've mocked the hell out of the 9, 10 and 11 positions in 12 man ppr mocks on ffcalculator. I'm married with 2 kids so you should be aware I have no life. I do more mocks than I should and I'm an accountant so I'm a natural over-analyzer.

I took a slightly different approach this season when preparing for my drafts. I've basically broken down it down to 2 scenarios

1. I get Calvin

2. I don't get Calvin

For #2 it probably means I'm drafting somewhere between 6-12. Once Calvin is gone there are only 4 RB's who would stop me from going WR in the first round:

Foster

Rice

McCoy

McFadden

If those 4 are gone I've made my peace with taking Julio in the first. I know it's early, I know people will criticize....I don't care to be honest. I know most non-hardcore guys like us will probably value Fitz and Andre more so in theory I should take one of them first and then take Julio in the 2nd but I simply can't stand the thought on missing out on Julio on the wrap-around. All it takes is one guy liking him and it would ruin my day.

So with that said...below is a conservative view of what my team will look like assuming I miss out on the 5 guys I mentioned above. This I feel is the worst case scenario...where no value RB's fall past where they should basically forcing me to go WR-WR-WR. I'm open minded and am willing to SLIGHTLY deviate from my strategy if what I feel is a good value presents itself at RB (for example Richardson or Matthews fall to the 3rd round). If that happens I'd then follow up with someone like Percy Harvin in the 4th. Either way...I'm walking out the of the first 4 rounds with 3 WR's unless things really go wrong and multiple people in my league all of a sudden incorporate my strategy (which I don't think they will because they are all stubborn bastards).

1) Julio

2) Fitz or Andre (take your choice)

3) AJ Green / Brandon Marshall / Hakeem Nicks (take your choice or whichever falls)

4) McGahee or Reggie Bush (take your choice)

5) Ridley or Hillis (take your choice)

6) If Witten or Finley are there I'll grab them...if not it means I'll end up waiting til the 8th and taking Fred Davis. If Fred Davis is gone at 8 I'm likely waiting til even later and grabbing a combo of Greg Olsen and Kyle Rudolph. Back to the 6th pick, if the 2 TE's are gone I'm taking another RB here (Donald Brown for example, sometimes the leftover of Ridley/Hillis makes it back as well

7) This is where I start to consider taking my QB. It usually ends up being a choice between the likes of Ryan/Rivers/Eli/Peyton. I'm fine with any one of those 4

From that point on I'm mining RB's. I look for RB's in 2 way committee's (avoid the 3 way messes like San Fran) who are preferably competing with an older RB with a ton of mileage (Jacquizz Rodgers is a perfect example). I'll end up with anywhere between 6-8 RB's in total on my team. The odds say of those 6-8 at least half will be starters by week 4 or 5. I've done this for 5 years and more often than not I end up with MORE than 2 choices for my 2 rb spots. The running back position is simply fluid league wide. Situations change from week to week...which is the basic premise for my entire strategy.

 

[karmarooster]

Thanks again for the replies Ricky and Ace.

However, two things:

1) you're talking about mocks. It's easy to get every target you seek in the round you want in mocks. In real drafts, there's a guy (like you) who will go for Julio in the first, or take Brady over Rodgers in the first (like me). Best laid plans in mocks never work out in real drafts.

2) Ace - the team you've run in a mock in a traditional upside-down strategy works out to having ever-so-slightly better WRs than the team I drafted, but gives up significantly at QB and TE. (I'm going to ignore RBs as basically both of us are mining them in mid and late rounds). I feel like you're stuck in the mold of going WR-WR-WR and missing value at QB and TE. Consider the results of the draft I just did (where WRs get full PPR, but RBs get .5 PPR, thus inflating WRs and deflating RBs):

Calvin - 1.05

Fitz - 2.06

Julio - 2.07

Andre - 2.09

Marshall - 2.11

Welker - 2.12

Roddy - 3.02

AJ - 3.03

Jennings 3.05

Cruz - 3.06

Nicks - 3.09

That's a huge drop from Calvin to Fitz, and I think by sticking to a non-Calvin WR in the first, you're giving up value there. So let's assume that you could actually get the team that you mocked (which is dubious, but just assume) - your mock stacks up to mine as follows:

QB - Rivers ... (or Eli/Peyton/Big Ben - Ryan will no longer be available in the 7th. He's the clear QB5 and pushing Vick for QB4 at this point).

WRs - Julio, Andre/Fitz, AJ Green/Nicks/Marshall

TE - Witten/Finley/F.Davis

vs.

QB - Brady

WRs - Marshall, Roddy, Lloyd

TE - Gates

Thus I think you've slightly upgraded at WR (and gotten your guy in Julio). But only slightly - Julio, Fitz, Nicks, is in my opinion, a small upgrade over Marshall, Roddy, and Lloyd. Arguably, Marshall and Roddy will have the most receptions out of those 6 guys. Although I'm a big believer in Lloyd, and basically bet my team on the Brady to Lloyd connection, these guys were also available: Austin, Stevie, Bowe, Maclin. He's certainly a wildcard.

In exchange for that upgrade at WR (although mostly at WR3), you've given up BIG time at QB, and slightly again at TE (everything I've read about Gates in camp is that he is fully healthy, and lighter so as to avoid re-injury, but at this point at least he looks healthy through the first few weeks).

Would you trade (a) Brady + one of Lloyd/Austin/Bowe/Maclin for (b) Rivers + Nicks? I certainly would want option (a). But to each his own - we're basically debating the finer points of the strategy and not the fundamentals of it as this point.

I would be willing to go the more traditional route (traditional upside down... lol), however, if I could get Matt Ryan. Maybe next draft I'll get Julio, Roddy, AND Ryan.

 

[Ace08]

Thanks again for the replies Ricky and Ace. However, two things:1) you're talking about mocks. It's easy to get every target you seek in the round you want in mocks. In real drafts, there's a guy (like you) who will go for Julio in the first, or take Brady over Rodgers in the first (like me). Best laid plans in mocks never work out in real drafts.2) Ace - the team you've run in a mock in a traditional upside-down strategy works out to having ever-so-slightly better WRs than the team I drafted, but gives up significantly at QB and TE. (I'm going to ignore RBs as basically both of us are mining them in mid and late rounds). I feel like you're stuck in the mold of going WR-WR-WR and missing value at QB and TE. Consider the results of the draft I just did (where WRs get full PPR, but RBs get .5 PPR, thus inflating WRs and deflating RBs):Calvin - 1.05Fitz - 2.06Julio - 2.07 Andre - 2.09Marshall - 2.11Welker - 2.12Roddy - 3.02AJ - 3.03Jennings 3.05Cruz - 3.06Nicks - 3.09That's a huge drop from Calvin to Fitz, and I think by sticking to a non-Calvin WR in the first, you're giving up value there. So let's assume that you could actually get the team that you mocked (which is dubious, but just assume) - your mock stacks up to mine as follows:QB - Rivers ... (or Eli/Peyton/Big Ben - Ryan will no longer be available in the 7th. He's the clear QB5 and pushing Vick for QB4 at this point).WRs - Julio, Andre/Fitz, AJ Green/Nicks/MarshallTE - Witten/Finley/F.Davisvs.QB - BradyWRs - Marshall, Roddy, LloydTE - GatesThus I think you've slightly upgraded at WR (and gotten your guy in Julio). But only slightly - Julio, Fitz, Nicks, is in my opinion, a small upgrade over Marshall, Roddy, and Lloyd. Arguably, Marshall and Roddy will have the most receptions out of those 6 guys. Although I'm a big believer in Lloyd, and basically bet my team on the Brady to Lloyd connection, these guys were also available: Austin, Stevie, Bowe, Maclin. He's certainly a wildcard.In exchange for that upgrade at WR (although mostly at WR3), you've given up BIG time at QB, and slightly again at TE (everything I've read about Gates in camp is that he is fully healthy, and lighter so as to avoid re-injury, but at this point at least he looks healthy through the first few weeks).Would you trade (a) Brady + one of Lloyd/Austin/Bowe/Maclin for (b) Rivers + Nicks? I certainly would want option (a). But to each his own - we're basically debating the finer points of the strategy and not the fundamentals of it as this point. I would be willing to go the more traditional route, however, if I could get Matt Ryan. Maybe next draft I'll get Julio, Roddy, AND Ryan.

Karma...there's a fundamental difference here where you and I disagree and that's ok. But because of that difference we are each going to see things differently.I don't rate your WR's anywhere near as high as you do (other than Marshall). I'm not a huge Lloyd guy and as Julio rises to the top this year I think Roddy comes back to being just a "good" WR.And in addition. All 3 of my guys I feel are going to have "explosive" weeks much more frequently than yours. These explosive weeks are what win H2H matchups in my opinion after playing FF for 15 years.So yeah...I can see where you're coming from but again this returns the main underlying point. In my opinion there are only 7 or 8 "elite" wr's this year. I base this off my own projections, not any consensus since I'm aware most people don't approach FF the way I do. Two of your 3 WR's aren't in my elite class....meanwhile I'm getting 3. Forget about total points for the year which can be misleading...I feel my 3 guys will do well on a weekly basis (CRANK if you will) with upside for massive weeks.I welcome the disagreement so that's cool...I'm use to nobody agreeing me when it comes to my strategy. Like I said though...it's worked tremendously well for me over the last 5 years. The only thing that would ever stop me from drafting this way would be if too many people in my leagues adopted the same style as well....then I'd really have to rethink things.

 

[VaTerp]

Attempted to implement this strategy in a recent $$ draft, not a mock. Although there's a caveat, this league is .5 PPR for RBs, but full PPR for WRs and TEs - which explains some of the RB value available in the mid rounds. Drafted from the 6 spot out of 12 teams:QB - Tom Brady (1st) (QB1 - yes, over Rodgers)WRs - Brandon Marshall (2nd) (WR5)Roddy White (3rd) (WR7)Brandon Lloyd (5th) (WR18 - a slight reach, but I wanted to pair with Brady)Denarius Moore (7th) (not so happy about this anymore given his hamstring situation)RBs - Frank Gore (6th) (RB24)Kevin Smith (8th)Deangello Williams (9th)Jacquizz Rodgers (10th)Mikell Leshoure (11th)Shane Vereen (12th)TE - Antonio Gates (4th) (TE3)Love this team at QB, WR, TE, but obviously RBs are going to be somewhat of a guessing game. To buy myself some time to sort out the RB situation, I was happy to pick up Kevin Smith as he should be a bona-fide starting RB for at least the first 2 weeks, and thereafter Leshoure will be worked in. This league starts 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, and a flex, so picking RB2 and Flex is going to be tricky especially after Leshoure comes back and muddles the Detroit backfield situation.Also, rather than drafting Moore, I could've had one of Hills/McGahee/D.Brown, and then grabbed Nate Washington or Greg Little later. The downside to going heavy on QB/WR/TE in the early draft means that you have little flexibility in the mid-late rounds where you need to take a boatload of RBs, and I didn't feel flexible enough to grab value at other positions because I was so behind at RB. And I think I'm ok with only 4 WRs right now, because that position is typically the easiest to identify waiver wire pickups (Laurent Robinson, Victor Cruz, where are you?) but I'm also feeling a little shaky at backup TE given Gates' history. Thoughts? Given the scoring format, I'm happy enough with this team.

Definitely would have gone Hillis, or either of the other 2 RBs over Moore in the 7th. And I'd have said that pre-hamstring.Also curious as to what RBs were available in the 5th? I like the start and finish of the draft but really don't like the Lloyd and Moore picks. My

 

[karmarooster]

Hokie - 5th round RBs were fairly sparse: BJGE, Bush, Redman, Turner, JStew. I'll stick with Lloyd - he's the 2nd cheapest receiver on the Pats (Hernandez in the 6th) and I'm basically rolling the dice here. If Brady is awesome, Lloyd will most likely be awesome, and vice versa. I'm doubling down on that hoping that it hits big and gives me a chance at the total points $.

Ace - I like Roddy to get 90 receptions this year, and I'll take that in PPR to go with Marshall's 90-100+. That said, I imagine there were other WRs that you might put in your 'elite' WR category like AJ Green, Nicks, Cruz, maybe Jennings. Other gems also available later like Harvin, Dez, DT. Specifically Roddy was not my main point - the QBs Brady and Rodgers vs. the likes of Rivers, Big Ben, Eli, etc.

For WRs were are considering and debating truly 'elite' WRs against those just outside that elite but fantasy WR1 category still, whereas for QBs we're talking about the two guys with the best chance to be QB1 overall, maybe even #1 fantasy scorers, against clear secondary/midlevel QBs.

The difference between QB1 & 2 against QB 6 & 7 (Ryan and Rivers last year, actually) was about 10 points per game, whereas WR2 & 3 against WR12 was only about 5 points.

 

[macknova]

I don't understand why you can't use a variation of this strategy.

To me, I want one runningback in the top 10-15 backs, depending how many you can live with as your RB1.

Then at the RB2, there I will wait and play matchups.

I want to make sure I have a top 3 QB or a top 2 TE. But with my other high pick, I want a RB. Load up on WRs in the middle rounds.

Prototypical draft (10th slot, 12 team, PPR)

1. Darren McFadden

2. Jimmy Graham

3. AJ Green

4. Hakeem Nicks

5. Reggie Bush

6. Eric Decker

7. Matt Ryan

8. David Wilson

9. Toby Gerhart

10. Mikel Leshoure

11. Daniel Thomas

12. Austin Collie

13. Mike Goodson

14. Montario Hardesty

15. Defense

16. Kicker

 

[ShadowMaster]

 

[karmarooster]

This is nice, but no way you get this in a real draft:

1. Darren McFadden

2. Jimmy Graham

3. AJ Green

4. Hakeem Nicks

5. Reggie Bush

6. Eric Decker

7. Matt Ryan

8. David Wilson

 

[macknova]

I've gotten that in a FFC mock before, except with Gronk instead of Graham. I think my league mates will value Gronk more, so I'm putting him as falling.

Regardless, the WR at the 3/4 turn are usually very good.

To me, an upside-down draft this year is QB-TE. Catching up on 2 positions is difficult, you're basically guaranteed a RB group you're not confident with, and WR is also behind the 8-ball, unless you just completely wait on RB.

If the right WR fall where I can go something like

Graham

Brees

Nicks

Cruz

Antonio Brown

RB

Between the 2nd and 3rd rounds, you want players like Gates, Newton, Stafford and Vick to go, so more RB and WR fall. Worst case scenario, you're left with all 4 out there, and the WR tier drops a bit to guys like Nelson and Cruz, and the RBs are down to uglier guys like Gore/Turner/Green-Ellis.

It all depends on getting lucky with the runningbacks. I've seen similar plans work, and I've seen it blow up in people's faces.

Bottom line, there is no substitution for making quality picks. If the draft board and value dictates QB and TE high, then do it. Personally, unless it just flat out doesn't work value-wise, I want at least 1 RB with my top 2 picks as an anchor, and I want either an elite QB or TE. If I can get both without sacrificing too much at RB, all the better.

 

[VaTerp]

Hokie - 5th round RBs were fairly sparse: BJGE, Bush, Redman, Turner, JStew. I'll stick with Lloyd - he's the 2nd cheapest receiver on the Pats (Hernandez in the 6th) and I'm basically rolling the dice here. If Brady is awesome, Lloyd will most likely be awesome, and vice versa. I'm doubling down on that hoping that it hits big and gives me a chance at the total points $.

I assume you're responding to me but I'm a Terp not a Hokie. I guess I'm an honorary one though so it's all good.Anyways, I don't think the bolded is necessarily true. Brady threw for over 5200 yards and 39 TDs and nobody not named Welker, Gronk, or Hernandez had more than 700 yards of 5 TDs.

Now, I certainly think Lloyd is an upgrade over Branch/Ocho but Brady does like to spread it around and there will be at least another WR in the fold as well. But you are making take a closer look at my Lloyd ranking. I likely need to move him up my board a bit. Still don't like him in the 5th after already having 2 WRs but I don't like any of those RBs there either. And with the scoring system maybe it works out well for you. We'll see.

 

[bengalbuck]

This is nice, but no way you get this in a real draft:1. Darren McFadden2. Jimmy Graham3. AJ Green4. Hakeem Nicks5. Reggie Bush6. Eric Decker7. Matt Ryan8. David Wilson

Agreed. Almost every guy on that list is at least a half round below their average ADP. Can't see getting AJ in the late 3rd or Nicks in the 4th. Jimmy Graham's ADP is 10th overall. McFadden is going before 10 in most drafts, etc.I do love that team though. If it was possible, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

 

[Dragon1952]

Thanks again for the replies Ricky and Ace. However, two things:1) you're talking about mocks. It's easy to get every target you seek in the round you want in mocks. In real drafts, there's a guy (like you) who will go for Julio in the first, or take Brady over Rodgers in the first (like me). Best laid plans in mocks never work out in real drafts.2) Ace - the team you've run in a mock in a traditional upside-down strategy works out to having ever-so-slightly better WRs than the team I drafted, but gives up significantly at QB and TE. (I'm going to ignore RBs as basically both of us are mining them in mid and late rounds). I feel like you're stuck in the mold of going WR-WR-WR and missing value at QB and TE. Consider the results of the draft I just did (where WRs get full PPR, but RBs get .5 PPR, thus inflating WRs and deflating RBs):Calvin - 1.05Fitz - 2.06Julio - 2.07 Andre - 2.09Marshall - 2.11Welker - 2.12Roddy - 3.02AJ - 3.03Jennings 3.05Cruz - 3.06Nicks - 3.09That's a huge drop from Calvin to Fitz, and I think by sticking to a non-Calvin WR in the first, you're giving up value there. So let's assume that you could actually get the team that you mocked (which is dubious, but just assume) - your mock stacks up to mine as follows:QB - Rivers ... (or Eli/Peyton/Big Ben - Ryan will no longer be available in the 7th. He's the clear QB5 and pushing Vick for QB4 at this point).WRs - Julio, Andre/Fitz, AJ Green/Nicks/MarshallTE - Witten/Finley/F.Davisvs.QB - BradyWRs - Marshall, Roddy, LloydTE - GatesThus I think you've slightly upgraded at WR (and gotten your guy in Julio). But only slightly - Julio, Fitz, Nicks, is in my opinion, a small upgrade over Marshall, Roddy, and Lloyd. Arguably, Marshall and Roddy will have the most receptions out of those 6 guys. Although I'm a big believer in Lloyd, and basically bet my team on the Brady to Lloyd connection, these guys were also available: Austin, Stevie, Bowe, Maclin. He's certainly a wildcard.In exchange for that upgrade at WR (although mostly at WR3), you've given up BIG time at QB, and slightly again at TE (everything I've read about Gates in camp is that he is fully healthy, and lighter so as to avoid re-injury, but at this point at least he looks healthy through the first few weeks).Would you trade (a) Brady + one of Lloyd/Austin/Bowe/Maclin for (b) Rivers + Nicks? I certainly would want option (a). But to each his own - we're basically debating the finer points of the strategy and not the fundamentals of it as this point. I would be willing to go the more traditional route, however, if I could get Matt Ryan. Maybe next draft I'll get Julio, Roddy, AND Ryan.

Karma...there's a fundamental difference here where you and I disagree and that's ok. But because of that difference we are each going to see things differently.I don't rate your WR's anywhere near as high as you do (other than Marshall). I'm not a huge Lloyd guy and as Julio rises to the top this year I think Roddy comes back to being just a "good" WR.And in addition. All 3 of my guys I feel are going to have "explosive" weeks much more frequently than yours. These explosive weeks are what win H2H matchups in my opinion after playing FF for 15 years.So yeah...I can see where you're coming from but again this returns the main underlying point. In my opinion there are only 7 or 8 "elite" wr's this year. I base this off my own projections, not any consensus since I'm aware most people don't approach FF the way I do. Two of your 3 WR's aren't in my elite class....meanwhile I'm getting 3. Forget about total points for the year which can be misleading...I feel my 3 guys will do well on a weekly basis (CRANK if you will) with upside for massive weeks.I welcome the disagreement so that's cool...I'm use to nobody agreeing me when it comes to my strategy. Like I said though...it's worked tremendously well for me over the last 5 years. The only thing that would ever stop me from drafting this way would be if too many people in my leagues adopted the same style as well....then I'd really have to rethink things.

I think you're selling Roddy White a little short. Julio basically had 8 decent weeks, in weeks 3, 4, 9 and 13-17 where he averaged 9 targets, 5.5 rec, 104 yds per game and totaled 8 TD's. In those same weeks Roddy averaged 13 targets, 6.8 rec, 95 yds per game and totaled 5 TD's. In what's becoming a passing team I don't think Julio makes Roddy just a "good" WR. I mean do you really think Julio can average much better than those 8 weeks over an entire season?

 

[karmarooster]

I get the hype - I think Julio has top 3 upside (Dez, at least physically), maybe top 2 upside in the entire NFL.

He is physically capable of insane stats like 90/1,500/15 TDs. The Falcons could lead the NFL in passes like the Lions last year. But that also means Roddy is a good bet to have 90+ receptions.

You may have convinced me aim for a Calvin/Fitz and Julio WR-WR old-school style upside draft...

 

[Garrett]

Good thread, I really like Ace's conviction to buck the ADP trends and take the player he wants in Jones. If you just focus on ADP data and the general consensus, you just run values/numbers the entire draft and use VBD to get above average results. The problem with that is above average value doesn't win the league. Whether it's the first round or the last round, you have to hit on a few players who will dramatically outperform expectations to win it all. If you think you know who those players are, you have to be sure you get them.

 

[Ace08]

Good thread, I really like Ace's conviction to buck the ADP trends and take the player he wants in Jones. If you just focus on ADP data and the general consensus, you just run values/numbers the entire draft and use VBD to get above average results. The problem with that is above average value doesn't win the league. Whether it's the first round or the last round, you have to hit on a few players who will dramatically outperform expectations to win it all. If you think you know who those players are, you have to be sure you get them.

If I've learned anything from all of these years of playing FF it's the bolded sentence above. This is 150% accurate.And this is exactly why I take so many RB's late....cause every time you hit on one you're not only bucking the trend, you're bucking the supposed built in "competitive balance" which is suppose to exist by bypassing one position for another. You're NOT ONLY getting the stud WR's that you drafted early...but now you're supplementing that with above average RB production.

That's why this strategy has worked so well for me over the last 5 years....Maybe I'm consistently getting lucky, maybe all the hours of research I put into studying the hell out of middle to late round RB's is paying off...or maybe it's a combination of the two. All I know is to me it's alot easier to mine late RB's than it is to find elite, consistent WR's late. I'm sure someone out there has had success doing the exact opposite, but to be honest I wouldn't even know what to look for to identify these late WR's...if I did hit on one it would be pure luck.

RB's, on the other hand.....I've basically created a little "checklist" of factors I look for. Every middle to late RB I find that meets the majority of these factors are guys I target and attack aggresively in the late rounds. And just like clockwork...every year by around week 4 or 5 I have TOO MANY options for just 2 rb spots. I can't even tell you how many times the RB position has actually ended up being a position of strength and tremendous depth just by using quantity over quality drafting methods.

 

[ShaHBucks]

This year I'm either going QB-TE or TE-QB with Rogers and Gronk being my top two players to build around. If Rodgers is gone then I go Gronk because I think Stafford has a top 4 season this year and hes usually sitting there on the swing. Another thing I notice is when I grab Gronk someone who pick in between my next pick has no choice but to grab Graham, that works out well because he's off my board at this point. If I get Rodgers and no TE then I usually go Andre Johnson then Julio/Nelson 3rd. 4th I start looking for RB, mainly Bradshaw, S-Jax or Bush. One wrinkle to the normal backwards draft is I want to get a nice backup TE or QB to disturb my draft-mates board as well since my rb's are likely commitee or great backups anyway. It works because when I'm looking for WR your looking RB, your looking for middling WR's im looking RB, I took the starting QB/TE you wanted as my backup already, its not ok to wait this year lol.

Here is a 12 team standard where Julio, S-Jax and Bradshaw was gone by rd 2 and Helu(another rb target of mine) went the pick before gates. Should be fun even if I fall flat on my face.

QB: Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford

RB: Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Kevin Smith, Mikel Leshoure, Shane Vereen

WR: Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Leonard Hankerson, Donald Jones

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates

PK: Matt Bryant

TD: Green Bay Packers

10 team. Another that went well but Stafford wasnt there in the 2nd. Rivers/Tamme would be a nice trade offer for anyone.

QB: Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Kevin Smith, Bernard Scott

WR: Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Torrey Smith Kenny Britt, Leonard Hankerson

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jacob Tamme

PK: Alex Henery

TD: Cincinnati Bengals

 

[lebowski]

Good thread, I really like Ace's conviction to buck the ADP trends and take the player he wants in Jones. If you just focus on ADP data and the general consensus, you just run values/numbers the entire draft and use VBD to get above average results. The problem with that is above average value doesn't win the league. Whether it's the first round or the last round, you have to hit on a few players who will dramatically outperform expectations to win it all. If you think you know who those players are, you have to be sure you get them.

If I've learned anything from all of these years of playing FF it's the bolded sentence above. This is 150% accurate.And this is exactly why I take so many RB's late....cause every time you hit on one you're not only bucking the trend, you're bucking the supposed built in "competitive balance" which is suppose to exist by bypassing one position for another. You're NOT ONLY getting the stud WR's that you drafted early...but now you're supplementing that with above average RB production.

That's why this strategy has worked so well for me over the last 5 years....Maybe I'm consistently getting lucky, maybe all the hours of research I put into studying the hell out of middle to late round RB's is paying off...or maybe it's a combination of the two. All I know is to me it's alot easier to mine late RB's than it is to find elite, consistent WR's late. I'm sure someone out there has had success doing the exact opposite, but to be honest I wouldn't even know what to look for to identify these late WR's...if I did hit on one it would be pure luck.

RB's, on the other hand.....I've basically created a little "checklist" of factors I look for. Every middle to late RB I find that meets the majority of these factors are guys I target and attack aggresively in the late rounds. And just like clockwork...every year by around week 4 or 5 I have TOO MANY options for just 2 rb spots. I can't even tell you how many times the RB position has actually ended up being a position of strength and tremendous depth just by using quantity over quality drafting methods.

Curious who you may be targeting his year?

 

[Mr. Soup Nazi]

If you guys were real sharks, you'd start out Kicker, Defense.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Good thread, I really like Ace's conviction to buck the ADP trends and take the player he wants in Jones. If you just focus on ADP data and the general consensus, you just run values/numbers the entire draft and use VBD to get above average results. The problem with that is above average value doesn't win the league. Whether it's the first round or the last round, you have to hit on a few players who will dramatically outperform expectations to win it all. If you think you know who those players are, you have to be sure you get them.

If I've learned anything from all of these years of playing FF it's the bolded sentence above. This is 150% accurate.And this is exactly why I take so many RB's late....cause every time you hit on one you're not only bucking the trend, you're bucking the supposed built in "competitive balance" which is suppose to exist by bypassing one position for another. You're NOT ONLY getting the stud WR's that you drafted early...but now you're supplementing that with above average RB production.

That's why this strategy has worked so well for me over the last 5 years....Maybe I'm consistently getting lucky, maybe all the hours of research I put into studying the hell out of middle to late round RB's is paying off...or maybe it's a combination of the two. All I know is to me it's alot easier to mine late RB's than it is to find elite, consistent WR's late. I'm sure someone out there has had success doing the exact opposite, but to be honest I wouldn't even know what to look for to identify these late WR's...if I did hit on one it would be pure luck.

RB's, on the other hand.....I've basically created a little "checklist" of factors I look for. Every middle to late RB I find that meets the majority of these factors are guys I target and attack aggresively in the late rounds. And just like clockwork...every year by around week 4 or 5 I have TOO MANY options for just 2 rb spots. I can't even tell you how many times the RB position has actually ended up being a position of strength and tremendous depth just by using quantity over quality drafting methods.

Curious who you may be targeting his year?

Yeah, I had the same question!

 

[TheCommish]

My league starts 9 offensive positions, but only 1 HAS to be a RB (we flex a lot more than most leagues, giving teams lots of different ways to build their rosters). Drafting in the back half of the order this year in a 12-team league, I'm probably going with a strategy like this. I can't see Calvin falling to me, and I can't pull the trigger on the TEs in the first round, so I'm thinking the previously unthinkable (to me, anyway) and leaning toward drafting a QB in round 1. Then I would take Graham in the 2nd if he's there (but probably not Gronk), or else load up on top flight WRs for the next few rounds. Just need to get one serviceable RB, or get lucky with a late-round flier or waiver wire pickup, and ride my QB-WR-TE studs to big scores each week.

Oh, and avoid injuries. That's always a nice thing to do, too.

 

[Matt Waldman]

I'm a huge proponent of the original upside down method. Been using it for the last 5 years (way before Waldman wrote that article) and the results have simply been wonderful. My league mates started out hating me....last year I actually caught a couple trying to mimic me. To me elite WR's are just absolute money in ppr leagues and I have a pretty good eye for "mining" rb's late so it works great for me.I'll be honest...I hate this new version. I've mocked it, studied it, analyzed it. Absolutely hate it. You're better off drafting traditionally IMO. It's one thing to wait on RB's where the nature of the position lends itself to being able to take advantage of the rapidly changing landscape...middle round WR's simply won't keep up with the elite guys who are all gone by the end of the 3rd round.To each their own..I know alot of people have made up their minds this year that the middle round WR's aren't that far off from the higher drafted ones.....I couldn't possibly disagree more. This would be a great thread to revisit after this upcoming season just to see how it all panned out.I'll be sticking to regular upside down drafting in all 4 of my money ppr leagues. I'm a firm believer it's a fundamentally sound philosophy. This year more than ever....which flies in the face of what many on this site think will happen apparently.

Just an FYI. I never claimed to invent the thing. Folks have been doing this for years. However, I have been writing about this concept for five years at various places in print and the Internet. ThanksM

 

[DexterDew]

a little more than half way through a draft where i ended up doing the upside down draft (and another team did, too)

12 team PPR, start 2RB/2WR/1TE and can flex any. I waiting until the sixth round to pick my first RB. Had the 1.05, 2.08, etc

QB: Rodgers

RB: D Brown, Stewart, Ingram and P Thomas

WR: Fitz, AJ, Lloyd and Cobb

TE: AHern

Can roster up to 8 RBs so I will be using the frequent fliers strategy.

IF there are RBs that you like in the 6-10th round, you can fill out the QB/TE/WR with above average talent across the board

 

[Instinctive]

a little more than half way through a draft where i ended up doing the upside down draft (and another team did, too)12 team PPR, start 2RB/2WR/1TE and can flex any. I waiting until the sixth round to pick my first RB. Had the 1.05, 2.08, etcQB: RodgersRB: D Brown, Stewart, Ingram and P ThomasWR: Fitz, AJ, Lloyd and CobbTE: AHernCan roster up to 8 RBs so I will be using the frequent fliers strategy. IF there are RBs that you like in the 6-10th round, you can fill out the QB/TE/WR with above average talent across the board

It's a bit tougher when others do it too, isn't it? Slightly dilutes the top WRs and TEs - for instance I want Graham, but if the guy in front of me is also going upside down, he may grab him.

 

[rascal]

Good thread, I really like Ace's conviction to buck the ADP trends and take the player he wants in Jones. If you just focus on ADP data and the general consensus, you just run values/numbers the entire draft and use VBD to get above average results. The problem with that is above average value doesn't win the league. Whether it's the first round or the last round, you have to hit on a few players who will dramatically outperform expectations to win it all. If you think you know who those players are, you have to be sure you get them.

If I've learned anything from all of these years of playing FF it's the bolded sentence above. This is 150% accurate.And this is exactly why I take so many RB's late....cause every time you hit on one you're not only bucking the trend, you're bucking the supposed built in "competitive balance" which is suppose to exist by bypassing one position for another. You're NOT ONLY getting the stud WR's that you drafted early...but now you're supplementing that with above average RB production.

That's why this strategy has worked so well for me over the last 5 years....Maybe I'm consistently getting lucky, maybe all the hours of research I put into studying the hell out of middle to late round RB's is paying off...or maybe it's a combination of the two. All I know is to me it's alot easier to mine late RB's than it is to find elite, consistent WR's late. I'm sure someone out there has had success doing the exact opposite, but to be honest I wouldn't even know what to look for to identify these late WR's...if I did hit on one it would be pure luck.

RB's, on the other hand.....I've basically created a little "checklist" of factors I look for. Every middle to late RB I find that meets the majority of these factors are guys I target and attack aggresively in the late rounds. And just like clockwork...every year by around week 4 or 5 I have TOO MANY options for just 2 rb spots. I can't even tell you how many times the RB position has actually ended up being a position of strength and tremendous depth just by using quantity over quality drafting methods.

Curious who you may be targeting his year?

Yeah, I had the same question!

bump

 

[hotdogcollars]

Good thread, I really like Ace's conviction to buck the ADP trends and take the player he wants in Jones. If you just focus on ADP data and the general consensus, you just run values/numbers the entire draft and use VBD to get above average results. The problem with that is above average value doesn't win the league. Whether it's the first round or the last round, you have to hit on a few players who will dramatically outperform expectations to win it all. If you think you know who those players are, you have to be sure you get them.

If I've learned anything from all of these years of playing FF it's the bolded sentence above. This is 150% accurate.And this is exactly why I take so many RB's late....cause every time you hit on one you're not only bucking the trend, you're bucking the supposed built in "competitive balance" which is suppose to exist by bypassing one position for another. You're NOT ONLY getting the stud WR's that you drafted early...but now you're supplementing that with above average RB production.

That's why this strategy has worked so well for me over the last 5 years....Maybe I'm consistently getting lucky, maybe all the hours of research I put into studying the hell out of middle to late round RB's is paying off...or maybe it's a combination of the two. All I know is to me it's alot easier to mine late RB's than it is to find elite, consistent WR's late. I'm sure someone out there has had success doing the exact opposite, but to be honest I wouldn't even know what to look for to identify these late WR's...if I did hit on one it would be pure luck.

RB's, on the other hand.....I've basically created a little "checklist" of factors I look for. Every middle to late RB I find that meets the majority of these factors are guys I target and attack aggresively in the late rounds. And just like clockwork...every year by around week 4 or 5 I have TOO MANY options for just 2 rb spots. I can't even tell you how many times the RB position has actually ended up being a position of strength and tremendous depth just by using quantity over quality drafting methods.

Curious who you may be targeting his year?

Yeah, I had the same question!

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forget who he's picking, what are those items on your checklist? teach a man to fish...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

lol at rb1/2/3 UNKNOWN

 

[oukurt]

WR are deep and similar this year after Calvin. Vick, Romo, Rivers, EMan, PMan and dare I say even Roeth make waiting on QB worthwhile too.This is the year to go back to RB/RB in the first two rounds, or even RB/TE.

agreed. In a recent 14 tm redraft I picked late 1st and was pretty happy with Murray and Richardson. With the wealth of WRs I got 2 really good ones in rounds 3 and 4. Got a nice QB (Romo) in 5th. I really wanted one of the top TEs in round 2, but when that didn't happen I switched to this tactic and feel pretty good about it. I haven't gone RB/RB in years. It felt so retro. Will see how it works out.

 

[oukurt]

I don't understand why you can't use a variation of this strategy.To me, I want one runningback in the top 10-15 backs, depending how many you can live with as your RB1. Then at the RB2, there I will wait and play matchups. I want to make sure I have a top 3 QB or a top 2 TE. But with my other high pick, I want a RB. Load up on WRs in the middle rounds.Prototypical draft (10th slot, 12 team, PPR)1. Darren McFadden2. Jimmy Graham3. AJ Green4. Hakeem Nicks5. Reggie Bush6. Eric Decker7. Matt Ryan8. David Wilson9. Toby Gerhart10. Mikel Leshoure11. Daniel Thomas12. Austin Collie13. Mike Goodson14. Montario Hardesty15. Defense16. Kicker

Would be thrilled with this draft with the exception of Gerhart in 9th. There had to have been some better high upside types available there. This is the type of draft I am going to try to pull off with my last draft next week.

 

[kyoun1e]

This seems like a no brainer strategy in my 12 team PPR league.

In this league I can go run n shoot 1 RB / 4 RBs or go 1 RB / 3 WRs / 2 TE.

And my league is still stuck in the RB mentality which will probably leave even more WR value in the middle rounds.

My average mock result:

#5: QB1 -- Rodgers/Brady/Brees

#20: TE 1 -- Graham/Gronk

#29: RB 1 -- Sproles or D. Martin

#44: WR 1 -- P. Harvin

#53: WR 2 -- B. Loyd

#68: WR 3 -- A. Brown (Note: Continually look for McGahee, Hillis, D. Brown, K. Smith, S. Ridley here...gone. That's ok).

#77: WR 4 -- T. Smith/E. Decker/P.Garcon/R. Wayne

#90: RB 2 -- Here's where the fun begins with RB quantity -- J. Rodgers, M. Bush, B. Take, CJ Spiller, etc.

I'm not even going to think about starting 2 RBs this year.

Upside down and run n shoot all the way.

KY

 

[dollarbill13]

I've done this recently, with a 10 team redraft with a whopping 10 bench spots, with 2 QB, 3 WR, 3 RB and a flex.

1.7 Dree Brees

2.4 Larry Fitzgerald

3.7 Victor Cruz

4.4 Julio Jones

5.7 Dwayne Bowe

6.4 Antonio Gates

7.7 Antonio Brown

8.4 Roy Helu ( Yahoo glitched, I picked Jeremy Maclin and it gave me Roy Helu, a few other guys in the draft chat mentioned Maclin was selected and they tried to pick him and they ended up with other players.)

9.7 Josh Freeman ( He was the last Tier 4/5 QB left)

10.4 Donald Brown

11.7 CJ Spiller

12.4 Jacquizz Rodgers

13.7 Malcolm Floyd

14.4 Coby Fleener

15.7 LaGarrette Blount

16.4 Kendall Hunter

17.7 Ryan Tannehill (Was the last starting QB left period, even Skelton was gone before him, even Locker was gone, who wasn't named the starter yet)

18.4 Kendall Wright

19.7 Isaiah Pead

20.4 Brandon LaFell ( Could have gotten Cobb, felt better about LaFell)

21.7 Cincinnati DEF

22.4 Alex Henery K

You gotta let the draft come to you in some ways, but I will agree with the OP, WR just seems to be the better value when other teams are making runs at certain positions. I also think it makes a difference that I was the only one using the strategy in this draft. I will say this, I've tried this upside down in three other drafts this year and a few mocks and at some point, you will have to reach for a QB, even if it's for your depth QB.

I'd agree for any league where Julio Jones can fall to the 4th round.