The NFL's movement to the 3-4 D (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

I play in a few "big play" dynasty IDP leagues where the normal defensive lineup is 3 DL, 4 LB and 4 DB. In regards to the DL position (both DE & DT), these leagues award 2 pts per solo, 1 pt per assist and a whopping 12 pts per sack. Yup, 12 pts per sack. Needless to say, the top-tier pass-rushing 4-3 DE's (Allen, Mario, Peppers, Osi, Tuck, etc, etc) are extremely valuable and command a hefty bounty to acquire...or trade...or draft.

With the NFL's movement to the 3-4 D, chasing the great DE's brings much more risk than just a few seasons ago. For example ~

*** Kampman and Dumervil will be moved to OLB this year

*** Peppers is demanding to be moved to a 3-4 OLB this year

*** Suggs was move to OLB last year (in my leagues)

*** Justin Smith was almost moved to OLB last year in the Niner's hybrid 3-4

*** Kiwanuka is a DE only when injury/retirement dictates a move

*** Merriman, Ware, Wimbley, Spencer, Gholston were monster DE's entering the NFL only to land on 3-4 D's and ultimately get slapped with LB designations

*** The majority of the top-tier DE's in this year's draft (Orakpo, E Brown, Maybin, English, etc) will most likely become OLB's in the NFL.

I'm raising the white flag.

I'm taking a new focus and acquiring pass-rushing DT's this offseason primarily for my DL depth. More specifically, my search revolves around pass-rushing DT's on 4-3 D's. For the record, I try to avoid the DE's in the 3-4 and definitely avoid the DT/NT position in a 3-4.

Since the players in my leagues are bid upon and awarded dollar contracts, the small demand for DT's allows me to acquire these DT's for pennies on the dollar. Granted...I will be sacrificing a few pts/game, but I should be adding more consistency (DT's normally have more tackles than DE's). Additionally, I will not have to carry the large contracts associated with many of the top DE's and I will not have to worry about a position change with a switch the 3-4.

Here are my Top-10 pass-rushing DT's in "big play" dynasty IDP leagues:

1. Kevin Williams (MIN) - will we get the '08 or '07 Kevin Williams?

2. Darnell Dockett (AZ) - the most under-rated DT in the NFL

3. Tommy Kelly (OAK) - the Raiders gave him too much $$$ last season, but this monster posted 56-4.5 one season after tearing his ACL

4. Tommie Harris (CHI) - if he can get his head into the game, I could easily see 40-8 each season for the next 4-5 years

5. Albert Haynesworth (TEN) - will jump to #2 if he's franchised again and motivated to play...hands down the best DT in the NFL

6. Amobi Okoye (HOU) - last season's ankle injury temporarily derailed his growth...new attacking D will help.

7. Brandon Mebane (SEA) - sleeper DT after posting 5 sacks last season...Kerney, Tapp and Jackson will relieve pressure

8. Shaun Rodgers (CLE) - probably will never see 75 tackles again, but should be a lock for 4-6 sacks

9. Sedrick Ellis (NO) - new scheme should allow him to ride the coat-tails of Smith, Grant and McCray

10. Tony Brown (TEN) - falls off the list if Haynesworth departs in FA

 

[Jene Bramel]

It's an interesting thought, worth considering because of the relative costs involved. There's an argument that it makes the elite, and seemingly ever-rarer, defensive end even more valuable than before. It's painful to be hurt when one changes positions without enough warning to plan for it, but I'm not sure the DT risk-reward matches the DE risk-reward. It'll be fun to follow.

We're probably also going to see more call for the addition of a DE/OLB hybrid position, despite the difficulties that might entail, or a move to separate ILB and OLB to mirror the CB/S and DE/DT separations started a few years ago.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Think it makes the elite 4-3 DEs in good defenses (so there's no need to change) all the more valuable since there's only a handful of them and most leagues start 2.

 

[PewterFan]

Think it makes the elite 4-3 DEs in good defenses (so there's no need to change) all the more valuable since there's only a handful of them and most leagues start 2.

:(I do, however, like Weiner Dog's thinking outside the box. I would consider it as a Plan B of sort after all the top 4-3 DE's are gone.

 

[Weiner Dog]

It sounds like Brandon Mebane's stock just received a nice little boost with the Colin Cole signing. Mebane posted 5.5 sacks as a 1-gap DT last year, but appears to be playing the 3-gap position this year.

link:

http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2...ange_for_mebane

 

[JamesTheScot]

I don't disagree with the proposition that good DT's provide excellent value. For several years I've always worked the waiver wire to shore up my DL corp by watching to see which DL's were getting it done that season (my same approach, BTW, to CB's). As you might imagine, the majority of the DL's on the waiver wire to start the season are DT's. Most of the 4-3 DE's are off the board at the end of our auction.

I think the shortcoming with WD's approach is that a 4-3 DT is hurt by a scheme change to 3-4 arguably just as much as a 4-3 DE is, so the risk isn't actually averted. If you admit that you avoid 3-4 DE's and NT's, what do you do with your stud 4-3 DT that suddenly ends up as a 3-4 DE or NT the next season?

I also suspect that the tackle numbers for DT's fluctuate quite a bit over the course of multiple seasons, even when the scheme and personnel situation is stable, so it's difficult to count on them as year to year performers in dynasty or carryover systems.

So I'm in on the value argument, but I'm out on the risk aversion argument.