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The Official Staff/Messageboard Survivor Thread (1 Viewer)

You guys let so many good kickers slide late that the value of early kickers was greatly diminshed.Still waiting for replies on my Bennett/Calico question.

 
You guys let so many good kickers slide late that the value of early kickers was greatly diminshed.Still waiting for replies on my Bennett/Calico question.
Bass:I know how much you like discussing my championship team from last season. I was helped in no small part by having Ferguson/Walker on my squad. They seemed to do well just about every week. I think that was a very safe move.I think that might work better with say, Morton/Kennison than Calico/Bennett. I don't love the Titans offense, but it's certainly an interesting play.Doing this with a couple of the 49ers WRs might not be a bad idea either.
 
Does anyone else think Bennett/Calico at WR is a strong play if you're OK on the byes with your other WRs? That Dallas combo last year definately helped many teams in the $15K Contest. At WR4/WR5, I would suspect they'd post a score for your survivor team 75% of the time.
I think Bennet/Calico is a strong play. I think that it can help you significantly if you have afforded yourself the roster space. The problem that I had with it in my draft is threefold.1) I think Calico has the ability to steal the job outright and may do so by midseason2) The value of Bennet's Draft spot was too close to where I wanted to get a $$ kicker. Therefore the play wasn't going to happen.3) I was saving this strategy for later in the draft as you will see and still got my $$ kicker.
 
Given that his 3rd back was only Moe Williams and the he already had 4 WRs through 9 rounds, I think I might have gone with Griffin before getting my WR5.
That is his best argument, but still not good enough IMO. Just because you have a RB#4 doesn't mean he's going to contribute to your team's point totals. I've said my piece on this, I'm pretty sure we're all clear on where I stand and where Chase stands.
 
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You guys let so many good kickers slide late that the value of early kickers was greatly diminshed.Still waiting for replies on my Bennett/Calico question.
Much different story in the other league. I took the first kicker at 13.01 in taking Vandy, and in the next two rounds, quite a few were snatched up. Woo hoo, I started a run! :nerd:
 
Solid WRs:Johnnie MortonTerry GlennKevin DysonTyrone CalicoKevin JohnsonRoy Williams
Johnnie Morton: Fourth best option on KC. At 33, he's not getting better. I could see him losing some time to Dante Hall, or even Boerigter.Terry Glenn: 750 yards on a team that couldn't run the ball OR have a legitimate number one WR. With the additions of Jones and Johnson, Glenn's going to do worse this year.Kevin Dyson: Do I really need to go here?Tyrone Calico: Third WR on the team. 297 yards last year.Kevin Johnson: Third team in three years. That's probably a sign. BTW, the Ravens aren't exactly a passing team.Roy Williams: Do I really need to go here, part 2? The number 2 WR on Detroit last year caught less than 300 yards. Hakim will take a lot of looks as the number 3 WR.Don't worry, the two WRs I picked up aren't any worse than this bunch.This is a good thing to keep in mind for all drafters: After about 40 WRs or so, there's just not a whole lot separating all the WR2s on teams.
I tend to disagree with all of this, but especially the T. Glenn part.Guy put up better numbers than Burress last year on a terrible offense. The offense should get better at RB and have better QB play. There will not be as many over throws of sure touchdowns when Glenn beats his defender this year.I like Glenn to improve this year. But if he gives me last years numbers I will be satisfied. 13 Fantasy PPG's is a lot more than Griffin will be putting up this year.Edit: sorry Glenn did not put up better numbers than Burress.Burress was taken by Chase at 8.06:Last year - 60/860/4 for 14.3 FPPGGlenn taken at 13.10:last year - 52/754/5 13.4 FPPGTHAT'S VALUE #####!
JoeTGlenn had 3 of his TD's in one game vs. the Lions last year. In fact, I was at the game. I was sitting next to the guy I was playing that week in a league and he had Terry Glenn. Lucky for me, he didn't play him that week as he thought Detroit's defense was good at home.If you take that one game away from Glenn, it's gets pretty spotty. If you think that Griffin is going to be the starter or at least get a significant amount of carries in a RBBC in Denver, I think it's worth the 12th round pick rather than a guy like Terry Glenn.Unlucky,I don't know how you can give Joffer an 8 when he's got 1 QB (Oakland). It could get real ugly in Oakland this year. I can see maybe a few games where they're doing horrible and they decide to pull Gannon during the game. Even though he's got both, cutting those stats in half will kill him.I'm very surprised that both those Miami QB's fell to you like that. Great timing. The Miami QB should put up decent QB numbers and should be a reliable No.2 QB behind Manning.Dodds,For the past few years, I've always wondered why Edge is rated so high and now I know it's because of you. I think your team is pretty solid, not flashy but a survivor. I just don't like E. James as a top 5 player.
 
I'm a firm believer that D's are highly unpredictable in this scoring system. You basically get 0 points for points and yards against unless you post a shutout or hold teams under 200 total yards. That is very rare. The rest is based on turnovers, TDs, and sacks. Sacks may be somewhat predictable. Turnovers less so, and TDs are nearly impossible. Combine that with the fact that Ds don't get hurt, and there's no reason to take any prior to your last two picks.
I disagree. The predictors for defensive turnovers in this scoring system are the quality of the D line, ballhawking/penetration skills of players behind the D line, defensive coaching philosophy, and the QBs they face. Ds that get lots of pressure are good for sacks and INTs. Ds that face bad QBs are good for sacks and INTs. Ds with good athletes in the secondary, and to a lesser extent at linebacker, are good for INTs and TDs. Kick returners are also important. Ds that give up few yards and points can also be good if they can get you a shutout or two over the course of the season. It might not be as predictable as in the Greek/Phenoms leagues, but it's close.
Well, let's test it out. Care to post your rankings and projections of all defenses using this scoring system? I'm curious to see how good they are. The other factor is dropoff from top to bottom - I don't think it's very big compared to other positions.
 
You guys let so many good kickers slide late that the value of early kickers was greatly diminshed.Still waiting for replies on my Bennett/Calico question.
Much different story in the other league. I took the first kicker at 13.01 in taking Vandy, and in the next two rounds, quite a few were snatched up. Woo hoo, I started a run! :nerd:
There's a reason we call it league two.
 
Well, let's test it out. Care to post your rankings and projections of all defenses using this scoring system? I'm curious to see how good they are. The other factor is dropoff from top to bottom - I don't think it's very big compared to other positions.
I tend to agree with Unlucky here. I think I could come a lot closer to predicting the top 5 Kicker's in the league than the top 5 Defense's for 2004.btw- i just read through Chase's defense by committee article. glad to know I end up getting two good ones at value. :thumbup:Edit: I hope BnB read Chase's article before critiqing my D's!lol
 
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Well, let's test it out.  Care to post your rankings and projections of all defenses using this scoring system?  I'm curious to see how good they are.  The other factor is dropoff from top to bottom - I don't think it's very big compared to other positions.
I tend to agree with Unlucky here. I think I could come a lot closer to predicting the top 5 Kicker's in the league than the top 5 Defense's for 2004.btw- i just read through Chase's defense by committee article. glad to know I end up getting two good ones at value. :thumbup:Edit: I hope BnB read Chase's article before critiqing my D's!lol
JoeT--you did a great job there.However, Mike did an even better job, knowingly or not. He got an excellent committee considering how late he took his teams.It's too bad I drafted way before I did this article--I guess I'll have to live with having the best D in the league :P
 
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Well, let's test it out. Care to post your rankings and projections of all defenses using this scoring system? I'm curious to see how good they are. The other factor is dropoff from top to bottom - I don't think it's very big compared to other positions.
You know I don't do projections the same way you do, but here's a rough cut estimate of the Ds. I'll probably change it around, since this is really off the top of my head, but the basics are the same. I'm looking at D line, playmakers behind them, defensive coaching philosophy, and positive influx of talent. You can see how long I took on coming up with this list (I started after reading your post) so my apologies for any duplicates or missing teams or whatnot. Just wanted to get something out there for discussion's sake.BaltimoreNew EnglandDallasCarolinaBuffaloOaklandJacksonvilleKansas CityWashingtonDenverPhillyMiamiNew OrleansMinnesotaChicagoSt LouisHoustonTampa BayTennesseeSan FranciscoAtlantaDetroitSeattleCincinattiGreen BayNY JetsPittsburghIndianapolisClevelandNY GiantsArizonaSan Diego
 
i don't think that's early. bfred and i discussed early on before the draft that having two legit starting kickers who would be guaranteed starting all 16 games (barring injury) was key to that position.if you draft 2 kickers but one gets cut and/or loses his starting status, not only do you now have only one kicker, but have wasted a roster space as well.this puts a little extra emphasis on kickers as the bottom 10 or so historically are marginal starters or can lose their starting role when you draft this early.drafting 2 "studs" is the way to go in this format.
I agree here. No matter what, if you have a bad D, like San Diego, at least you'll always know you have a gauranteed starter in the San Diego D.If you have a bad kicker, especially on teams where head coaches aren't afraid to change them up, he's no longer on your squad.I don't usually take the top kicker, but I like to take one of the top 6 kickers, and then pick another one a couple rounds later. I find that Stover has been falling as my No.2 kicker in 2 survivor drafts I've done so far and have been pleased with that.
 
Alright, the kicker strategy is already getting a little stale. Can we just release the rest of the rounds and be done with it?

 
In no particular order, Fullback Fro, Jason Wood, & Joe T have the strongest teams in League 1, IMO. Too close to call right now. I'm going to analyze the league in more detail later, but I will say the edge would go to Wood if he had a better TE.

 
In no particular order, Fullback Fro, Jason Wood, & Joe T have the strongest teams in League 1, IMO. Too close to call right now. I'm going to analyze the league in more detail later, but I will say the edge would go to Wood if he had a better TE.
I liked Wood's team a lot at first. His WR's are starting to scare me the more I look at them. I think he's short one quality receiver at this point.
 
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LHUCKS: How do the grades look so far?I know it's hard to judge my team yet, considering how I used each round effectively and we haven't seen 30% of my picks.

 
LHUCKS: How do the grades look so far?I know it's hard to judge my team yet, considering how I used each round effectively and we haven't seen 30% of my picks.
Yeah, I'm holding off until Dodds releases the rest of the rounds...I like your team, even with the wasted pick :P Seriously I've already talked to Haze, GregR, and FM69 on putting out composite rankings for both leagues. I think you guys will be impressed. Basically the three top finishers from SII and the top finisher from MBSLs will be judging. It should be quite accurate in terms of who has the best chance of surviving from the early July perspective. I know all three of the other guys know exactly what they are doing when it comes to survivor drafting.I must say that after I saw the draft(bootlegged copy) I wasn't surprised by the teams at all. My early money was always on the SII guys and they have all had solid drafts(curiously the top 3 from SII weren't selected to compete.) And from other people's rankings I know that is the consensus as well.Also, I knew the Staff would be solid, but was surprised to see a few(cough Dowling cough) drop the ball a little bit. Nevertheless the staff is much more consistent team to team than is the MB...again, exactly what I expected.Overall the draft has made my late June/early July much more eventful:thumbup:...I definitely don't have the flare for words that Mr. Pickles and JoeT have...my commentary is more Yudkin-like :nerd:
 
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LHUCKS: How do the grades look so far?I know it's hard to judge my team yet, considering how I used each round effectively and we haven't seen 30% of my picks.
Yeah, I'm holding off until Dodds releases the rest of the rounds...I like your team, even with the wasted pick :P Seriously I've already talked to Haze, GregR, and FM69 on putting out composite rankings for both leagues. I think you guys will be impressed. Basically the three top finishers from SII and the top finisher from MBSLs will be judging. It should be quite accurate in terms of who has the best chance of surviving from the early July perspective. I know all three of the other guys know exactly what they are doing when it comes to survivor drafting.I must say that after I saw the draft(bootlegged copy) I wasn't surprised by the teams at all. My early money was always on the SII guys and they have all had solid drafts(curiously the top 3 from SII weren't selected to compete.) And from other people's rankings I know that is the consensus as well.Also, I knew the Staff would be solid, but was surprised to see a few(cough Dowling cough) drop the ball a little bit. Nevertheless the staff is much more consistent team to team than is the MB...again, exactly what I expected.Overall the draft has made my late June/early July much more eventful...I definitely don't have the flare for words that Mr. Pickles and JoeT have...my commentary is more Yudkin-like :thumbup:
Lhucks,What I like about you is that nothing seems to surprise you. I'm a little upset at you for not letting me in on this Marshall Faulk rumor before the public got it. Seriously though, you were a Marshall Faulk supporter this year weren't/ aren't you?
 
What I like about you is that nothing seems to surprise you. I'm a little upset at you for not letting me in on this Marshall Faulk rumor before the public got it. Seriously though, you were a Marshall Faulk supporter this year weren't/ aren't you?
My take on Marshall,- I liked him in the third tier of backs in pt/reception leagues, and only if you could handcuff him. It'll be interesting to see how much truth there is to the rumors. Faulk looked pretty damn good at the end of last year. And Faulk isn't the type of guy that would pull a Barry Sanders...he's competitive as hell. Great call by Wiimer if he doesn't play though.As for surprises, just being honest about the draft. I've seen 75% of these guys draft so I know their tendencies. I also read the resumes and thought they were very telling.
 
What I like about you is that nothing seems to surprise you.
"Listen, here's the thing. If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker."-Rounders
 
I bet everyone would have picked me to be last pre-draft.
Some still do ;) j/k FF. You just happened to draft a lot of guys that I'm not very high on (other than Barlow), but I can't criticize the picks, I think you did get good value in most spots and didn't really reach on anyone.
 
I bet everyone would have picked me to be last pre-draft.
I wouldn't have said last, but not a front runner. IMO, your draft was much stronger then the MBSL from last year. But then who am I to speak...Shockey, Vick, Collins, Stewart.
 
Adding Bass N Brew and Levin's commentary here soon. I got sidetracked by people picking on stuff I wrote last year. Back on track here.And my KILLER SIMULATION will be coming tomorrow. I am going to rerun it tonight after tweaking for handcuffs (it currently doesn't fairly represent these players). I will run this for both leagues too. Should be interesting to say the least.

 
Fro's Bro'sS.McNair, J.DelhommeK.Barlow, R.Johnson, T.Jones, D.Foster, A.ThomasD.Jackson, J.Porter, R.Wayne, J.McCareins, T.Calico, B.Stokely,T.PinsktonT.Gonzalez, J.KleinsasserJ.Wilkins, J.HansonSEA, IND

 
Final Team Joe T:QB:T GreenJ GarciaT MaddoxRB:J LewisD DavisC GarnerK FaulkWR:H WardJ SmithD BranchD NorthcuttT GlennM MuhammadI HilliardTE:Boo WilliamsA BechtK:J ElamM GramaticaD:BengalsJetsIf I could go back and change this draft at all, I would have selected Moe Williams as my RB4 in the 10th round instead of taking TE1 Boo Williams. Also, in round 16 I would have locked up the Bucs running attack by taking Michael Pittman as my RB 5 instead of Ike Hilliard.Outside of those two changes, I see no flaws with my overall draft plan. I had a strategy coming in was successful in executing it. I love my WR's and think they are in the top 2 in the league. My QB's and RB's are solid and in the top half of the league. My TE's and K's are servicable. My D's are terrible, but they play every week and according to Chase's Defense article are a good platoon defense.

 
Haze, GregR, FM69 and I are shooting for a Wednesday release of our consensus rankings and commentary. :football:

 
Haze, GregR, FM69 and I are shooting for a Wednesday release of our consensus rankings and commentary. :football:
is that an actual schedule or will it be like the release of the rounds? ;)
 
If I could go back and change this draft at all, I would have selected Moe Williams as my RB4 in the 10th round instead of taking TE1 Boo Williams.
Best mistake that you never made....mark my words. Boo was the best value at TE in the draft.Three teams will be gone before Pittman suits up.
 
If I could go back and change this draft at all, I would have selected Moe Williams as my RB4 in the 10th round instead of taking TE1 Boo Williams.
Best mistake that you never made....mark my words. Boo was the best value at TE in the draft.Three teams will be gone before Pittman suits up.
Agreed, Boo over Moe was the right move in this format.
 

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