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The Official Unofficial Super Bowl Kicker Contest! Free to Enter, Difficult to Win! (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I've been feeling a little bit bad because I completely spaced doing a K contest this year, despite saying I would do a K contest this year. 

So to keep my promise, I figured I'd do one for the SB. Obviously with only 2 kickers, I have to mix the rules of the contest up a bit to make it harder to win, so here goes...

  1. Pick a K. You have 2 choices (obviously). 
  2. Predict that K's total FF points based on the following performance metrics: .1/1 yard (3 point minimum). A 31 yard FG = 3.1 yards, 56 = 5.6, etc. 
  3. Predict the total number of Field Goals (FGs) by your K. 
  4. Predict the total number of Point-After TDs (PATs) by your K
  5. Predict the total combined yardage of your K''s FGs (e.g. if you pick Evan McPherson, & he has FGs of 31, 52, 47 & 26 yards. That's 156 yards combined.) - Please note: this metric will be scored at .5/1, so if you guess 100 and the number is 120, that's a 10 point variance, not 20.
  6. Predict total number of Missed FG (MFG) for your K
  7. Predict total number of Missed Point After TD (MPAT) for your K. Note:  a blocked FG does not count as a miss for this contest. 


Whomever gets closest to all of these numbers will win a 4-pack of award-winning hot sauce in a mix of heat to your preference, made by yours truly (and as seen on Hot Ones) 

The way I calculate this is pretty straightforward. I put it into a spreadsheet, and determine the total variance of your combined guesses.

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Here's an example of what an entry would look like & how it would be scored.

A hypothetical entry:

  1. McPherson
  2. 16.7 points
  3. 3 FG
  4. 3 PAT
  5. Total combined yardage = 108
  6. 0 MFG
  7. 1 MPAT


The Scoring:

IF, hypothetically, the performance of McPherson in this game is as follows:  15.7 points (1) ,  3 FG (1), 4 PAT (1),  total combined yardage 122 (7), 0 MPAT (0), then you will finish with a total variance of 10, and would have a pretty good shot at winning. 

The closer that number is to 0, the better.  :pickle:  

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  • In the event that one (or more) entries has the same data, or the same resulting differential, the tiebreaker shall be time-stamp, so get those entries in asap. 
  • If you want to change your entry after submitting, please delete & re-post. Because timestamp is a tiebreaker, do not edit your entry. 
  • Sauce will be shipped via USPS Priority Mail, as soon as possible after the game (it might take me a couple of days to get it out depending on the flow of business next week) 
  • USA only, sorry. If you still want to play & have a friend in the USA, you can always have it shipped to them. 
  • Contest locks as soon as the national anthem has been beaten to death by whomever is holding that last note for an unreasonably long period of time. So get those guesses in before kickoff!
May you all hit your National Anthem prop bets. I can think of no more patriotic form of gambling addiction.  :)  
 

note: you don’t need to pick the “best” kicker. Just pick one & make your guesses. 

 
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Gally

Footballguy
Based on the way this is written I just want to be sure I understand the categories:

  • #3 - By the term "FGs" you mean made field goals
  • #4 - By the term "PATs" you mean made point after TD's
  • #6 - By the term "MFG" you mean missed field goals
  • #7 - By the term "MPATs" you  mean missed point after TD's
Also - does a blocked kick count as a miss?  I don't think it counts in most fantasy football platforms as a miss to the kicker.  

Thanks for doing this.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Based on the way this is written I just want to be sure I understand the categories:
I appreciate this - it always helps to get a 2nd set of eyes on it so I don't cause any confusion. I'll edit my post to clarify these. Thanks! 

  • #3 - By the term "FGs" you mean made field goals 
Yes. 

  • #4 - By the term "PATs" you mean made point after TD's
Yes

  • #6 - By the term "MFG" you mean missed field goals
Yes

  • #7 - By the term "MPATs" you  mean missed point after TD's
Yes

Also - does a blocked kick count as a miss?  I don't think it counts in most fantasy football platforms as a miss to the kicker.  
Great question - in my league a blocked kick inside 30 is still -1. For this contest, I'mma ignore blocked kicks, as I never really agreed with that. It's (typically) not the K's fault. 

Thanks for doing this.
My pleasure! Gotta make the SB interesting since neither of my teams are in it, and ordinarily I'd have done 3-4 of these by now. 

:hifive:

 

rockaction

Footballguy
1. Gay 
2. 15.6
3. 3 MFG
4. 3 MPAT
5. 126 Yards 
6. 0 MPAT 
7. 1 (last second loser...wah wah. Sorry, mang) MFG

 
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Rubi

Footballguy
As I was discussing this with my friend Sam Adams he suggested I get advice from our buddy Thomas Jefferson,so Tom agreed to flip over and here's what he suggested:

1. M. Gay

2. 10.2   total points

3. 2  FG

4. 3  PAT

5. 81  total yards

6. 0  MPAT

7. 0  MFG

 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
Feel like the inexplicable lack of participation here is going to be my key to some fine hot sauce. 

:thumbup:
It's early and I expect everyone who entered prior Lucky Dog Hot Sauce contests to enter this one. There might be a late entry advantage in this contest!  I've tried a few of the sauces, love the complex flavors combined with the heat. My vegan foodie daughter in LA also loved them. Good luck!

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
It's early and I expect everyone who entered prior Lucky Dog Hot Sauce contests to enter this one. There might be a late entry advantage in this contest!  I've tried a few of the sauces, love the complex flavors combined with the heat.
Thank you so much! 

My vegan foodie daughter in LA also loved them. Good luck!
This sort of feedback is the best. One of my sauces has honey, but I do try to appeal to all tastes & dietary preferences. 
:)  

 

Gally

Footballguy
  1. Pick a K. You have 2 choices (obviously). 
  2. Predict that K's total FF points based on the following performance metrics: .1/1 yard (3 point minimum). A 31 yard FG = 3.1 yards, 56 = 5.6, etc. 
  3. Predict the total number of Field Goals (FGs) by your K. 
  4. Predict the total number of Point-After TDs (PATs) by your K
  5. Predict the total combined yardage of your K''s FGs (e.g. if you pick Evan McPherson, & he has FGs of 31, 52, 47 & 26 yards. That's 156 yards combined.) - Please note: this metric will be scored at .5/1, so if you guess 100 and the number is 120, that's a 10 point variance, not 20.
  6. Predict total number of Missed FG (MFG) for your K
  7. Predict total number of Missed Point After TD (MPAT) for your K. Note:  a blocked FG does not count as a miss for this contest. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's an example of what an entry would look like & how it would be scored.

A hypothetical entry:

  1. McPherson
  2. 16.7 points
  3. 3 FG
  4. 3 PAT
  5. Total combined yardage = 108
  6. 0 MPAT
  7. 1 MFG
Careful of the bold @Hot Sauce Guywhen doing the totals.  You flip flopped the missed FG and PAT between your description and your sample (#6 & #7).  It might get confusing when totaling things up especially when the entries don't specify if it's a MFG or MPAT.  

Just trying to head off controversy for you.  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Careful of the bold @Hot Sauce Guywhen doing the totals.  You flip flopped the missed FG and PAT between your description and your sample (#6 & #7).  It might get confusing when totaling things up especially when the entries don't specify if it's a MFG or MPAT.  

Just trying to head off controversy for you.  
I see what you mean. thanks for pointing it out. 

ETA: when scoring it, I will score it according to the rules as stated in that order.  The example has been fixed. Good catch. 

 
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OldMilwaukee

IBL Representative
1.     Matt Gay

2.     7.1points

3.     1 Field Goal

4.     3 PAT

5.     total FG yards  41

6 .    0 Missed FG

7.     0 Missed PAT

 

Gally

Footballguy
I see what you mean. thanks for pointing it out. 

ETA: when scoring it, I will score it according to the rules as stated in that order.  The example has been fixed. Good catch. 
Might want to @ the people that are different to make sure they are aware

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Might want to @ the people that are different to make sure they are aware
If they listed it in their post as “thing = number” it’s probably ok. And most have it 0, 0, so…
 

but I’ll see what I can do. 
 

ETA: I now see some didnt. I will @ those folks. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Attention: @SeniorVBDStudent, @rockaction  - please note that my example of scoring had the MPAT & MFG in the wrong order.  For those who had 0, 0 in their entries, it was irrelevant. Likewise, for those who listed "thing = number" it is irrelevant. 

However yous two have it simply 6. 0, 7. 1 or whatever. 

So ya might want to edit to fix, so it's clear which is a 0 or 1 for you. I will allow you two to edit (and you two only) for this purpose. It will not count against your time-stamped entry - I can see by the order posted whether you were 1st or not, should it come to a tie-breaker, which it likely won't. 

Sorry about that - my bad. :(  

 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
1.    Matt Gay

2.     14.4 points

3.     3 Field Goal

4.     3 PAT

5.     total FG yards  114

6 .    0 Missed FG

7.     0 Missed PAT

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Plenty of time before kickoff! Best advice: get about 3 beers & 2 shots in, chow some hot wings for inspiration then make a guess.

good luck everyone! :pickle:

 

brun

Footballguy
1.    Matt Gay

2.    9.9 points

3.     2 Field Goal

4.     3 PAT

5.     total FG yards  69

6 .    0 Missed FG

7.     0 Missed PAT

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Dacomish said:
@OldMilwaukee is like "BOOM!" with his 41 total yards prediction, as long as Gay doesn't get any more FG and another XP or 2 and he has this in the bag for sure! 
The yardage was always going to produce the largest variance, even at half value. 

I’ll check it in the morning when I’m sober. What a game. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
OK, for a rare change, I didn't even need a spreadsheet. I calculated out @OldMilwaukee, and his/her TOTAL variance was 2 points.  :shock:

Just a crazy good call on Gay's 41 yard kick. The hardest leg of this was nailing the yardage, and boy howdy right on the button. 

1 point off of his total points, and 1 PAT off (but amazingly should have nailed this one too. My under thanks that holder)  results in a variance so small, everyone else lost on the yardage alone by comparison. 

I'll take a 2nd glance over it, but pretty sure this is a flawless victory (FINISH HIM!) for Old Milwaukee. 

DM me a good shipping address & a preference / range  of heat & I'll get your winnings off asap. 

Congratulations, Sir or Madame, and great job!  :hifive:

 
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