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The One Guy You Want…To Avoid (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
We have a “the one guy you want” topic - thought it would be interesting to see which of the seemingly sought-after players you absolutely do NOT want. 

They could fall a full round and you would still pass on them in any format.

 
Tyreek. The Qb downgrade is so massive that I just can’t get myself to pay a late 2nd/early 3rd for a Tua WR. Ditto for Waddle who isn’t going too much later.

 
CEH: this isn’t a Ronald Jones thing, even though his presence is a factor. It’s more that I’ve never been impressed by what I’ve seen on the field from CEH, and there are other players at his ADP who I think will contribute more. 

 
Allen Robinson

Not buying into the Rams hype.  Starting to go in the 4th now.

 
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While talented and not "too old" I want no parts of Amari Cooper.  The Run 1st, 2nd and 3rd offense scheme while Watson serves his suspension, Cooper might see 4 targets a game?  What's his ADP?  early 5th round?  Give me Hollywood Brown, Darnell Mooney  or Amon-St Ra over Cooper. 

 
I'd agree with the no Browns idea, at least not anywhere near current ADPs. Obviously if Chubb is there in the 3rd round or something, I'm not passing on him, but that's unlikely. 

 
Might be unpopular, but my early avoid is Derrick Henry. The mileage is high, the team might not be that good, should be facing stacked boxes all day and I’m no fan of that foot injury. 
 

S Barkley, I get that he has a high upside but his downside is also pretty low. I’ll pass and take other players at that ADP.  

 
Hmmm, if I can only pick one early round guy

Joe Burrow, so little value at his current ADP...people draft him because they like him, not because of the underlying stats and forward looking analysis.

 
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candian fantasy guy said:
Might be unpopular, but my early avoid is Derrick Henry. The mileage is high, the team might not be that good, should be facing stacked boxes all day and I’m no fan of that foot injury. 
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Yeah, I'm wary of him as well...I wouldn't call him an avoid, but I basically have zero shares and wont have him in any redrafts.

 
I'll try to be bold here and choose someone in round 2 - Javonte Williams

It will take a Melvin Gordon injury for him to return value with an ADP of 2.3.  May as well just take Gordon 6 full rounds later.

 
I'll pass on deebo at his current price.  I don't really care about the rushing and I'm a fan of his talent but the uncertainty with Lance at qb, plus aiyuk and kittle, plus the possibility that shanahan leans on the run game to protect lance early... i think the risk is greater than the reward. 

 
Derrick Henry was on pace for such a stupid workload last year (over 500 touches)...and while his career workload is not 'in the red' due to underuse early in his career, just will work around him.

The smoke around Leonard Fournette's conditioning is enough to worry about his ability to stay healthy soft tissue wise.  Might it be nothing?  Sure...but I don't think this is the first time he's had an issue with this.

I don't know why James Conner's receiving stats when Edmonds was healthy were atrocious, then exploded once he got hurt but his value seems to be assuming he'll be uber productive in the passing game.  But without 15 TD's and a significant piece of the RB passing attack, what is this guy?

With the Gruden/Mayock drafting engine looking like a real trainwreck in hindsight, Josh Jacobs feels like and 'anything but...' option for McDaniels for whatever reason.  Definition of an inherited player.

DK Metcalf...love the player, hate the situation.

DEN WR's...no doubt this group will wind up being productive collectively.  But if 3 people from the same movie/TV show get nominated for Best Actor, generally they split the vote.  And a true alpha hasn't emerged to date with this group.

 
TripItUp said:
Hmmm, if I can only pick one early round guy

Joe Burrow, so little value at his current ADP...people draft him because they like him, not because of the underlying stats and forward looking analysis.
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I'm pretty indifferent to Burrow, and probably won't end up with him. However, I'm curious what you mean by the bolded. Burrow led the league in completion % and YPA (which is incredible as those stats are often at odds) and was 3rd in TD%. So the argument for Burrow's upside, is boils down to him having more pass attempts. Which there are 2 reasons to think could happen.

1. An improved OL, leading to both more time to throw (as Burrow certainly loves his deep shots) and likely a reduction in sacks/hits.

2. Being another year removed from his knee injury, he won't be babied/protected as much. He averaged 29 attempts per game in his 1st 6 games. He averaged 35 from then on, which is a pace that would have been top-10 in the NFL. 

Again, I'm not saying draft Joe Burrow at all costs, but I can see stats backing up why he could/should be better than he was a year ago, where he finished as QB8. 

 
travdogg said:
I'm pretty indifferent to Burrow, and probably won't end up with him. However, I'm curious what you mean by the bolded. Burrow led the league in completion % and YPA (which is incredible as those stats are often at odds) and was 3rd in TD%. So the argument for Burrow's upside, is boils down to him having more pass attempts. Which there are 2 reasons to think could happen.

1. An improved OL, leading to both more time to throw (as Burrow certainly loves his deep shots) and likely a reduction in sacks/hits.

2. Being another year removed from his knee injury, he won't be babied/protected as much. He averaged 29 attempts per game in his 1st 6 games. He averaged 35 from then on, which is a pace that would have been top-10 in the NFL. 

Again, I'm not saying draft Joe Burrow at all costs, but I can see stats backing up why he could/should be better than he was a year ago, where he finished as QB8. 
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Schedule is significantly more difficult and they aren't surprising anybody this year.  I expect him to not return value at ADP.

 
Gibson - Maybe too obvious. I think he's talented but the Commanders have never figured out how to properly use him IMO... and the situation there isn't getting any better. Each news blip from camp seems worse for him. Not sure anyone is clamoring to get him, but I'm certainly not.

Kelce - Something feels off about the KC offense to me. I feel like this is the year Kelce's production sees a dip. Would rather take Andrews, Pitt, or essentially no TE.

Kupp - Last year as his peak. I think ARob is gonna soak way more targets away and I think Van Jefferson takes a step up this year as well. He'll have big games but I don't seem him as the #1 WR overall (I'd rather have J Jefferson).

Aaron Jones - I'm not buying the "lack of WR = RB production" hype. Even if I did I think AJ Dillon is gonna get a decent piece of that pie. I have a feeling the GB offense is going to implode this year without receiving threats for Rodgers. 

 
TripItUp said:
Hmmm, if I can only pick one early round guy

Joe Burrow, so little value at his current ADP...people draft him because they like him, not because of the underlying stats and forward looking analysis.
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That and a week 16 prime time matchup with BUF. 

I like Burrow at ADP, because I believe the Bengals will throw much more than they did in 2021. 

If I’m wrong about that, I’m probably going to still get decent value out of the pick. If I’m right about it, I could get a really nice profit on the pick. 

 
RenegadeRoy said:
Aaron Jones - I'm not buying the "lack of WR = RB production" hype. Even if I did I think AJ Dillon is gonna get a decent piece of that pie. I have a feeling the GB offense is going to implode this year without receiving threats for Rodgers. 
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I'm actively targeting Jones in round 2...could finish RB1...as a matter of fact my basic redraft strategy is the following:  

Round 1:  Stud WR

Round 2;  Aaron Jones

Round 3 Saquon (if he's there)

 
TripItUp said:
I'm actively targeting Jones in round 2...could finish RB1...as a matter of fact my basic redraft strategy is the following:  

Round 1:  Stud WR

Round 2;  Aaron Jones

Round 3 Saquon (if he's there)
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It's tough though, what pick could this work with?  I guess in theory pick 7 or 8 could get your Chase and Jones but that would be not overly likely.  And No chance SB is there at 3.07.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
DEN WR's...no doubt this group will wind up being productive collectively.  But if 3 people from the same movie/TV show get nominated for Best Actor, generally they split the vote.  And a true alpha hasn't emerged to date with this group.
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this is a good one. I’m sure one will become Wilson’s favorite target.

I'm not sure which one. So the smart play is probably to get Patrick as the lowest risk/highest reward candidate at ADP. 

 
TripItUp said:
Hmmm, if I can only pick one early round guy

Joe Burrow, so little value at his current ADP...people draft him because they like him, not because of the underlying stats and forward looking analysis.
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I get the idea of thinking he can't replicate his efficiency from last year, but if there is any QB I feel has a shot at an all-time type season explosion, it's Burrow.

He's a legit star.  Like all-time type potential.  One of the craziest stats from his season ago was that in 20 total games, he was sacked 70 times.  People blame David Carr getting sacked 70 times in a season as a reason for why he never turned into anything yet Burrow is leading a team that drafted him #1 overall to a SB appearance less than two years after going 2-14.

It's easy to look at his numbers and say he can't replicate that efficiency.  And maybe not.  But after last year, I can certainly see the brass there saying, he needs more than 520 attempts.  They invested in protecting him.  And 600 attempts would be enough to replicate last years numbers at pretty pedestrian rates of production.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
I get the idea of thinking he can't replicate his efficiency from last year, but if there is any QB I feel has a shot at an all-time type season explosion, it's Burrow.

He's a legit star.  Like all-time type potential.  One of the craziest stats from his season ago was that in 20 total games, he was sacked 70 times.  People blame David Carr getting sacked 70 times in a season as a reason for why he never turned into anything yet Burrow is leading a team that drafted him #1 overall to a SB appearance less than two years after going 2-14.

It's easy to look at his numbers and say he can't replicate that efficiency.  And maybe not.  But after last year, I can certainly see the brass there saying, he needs more than 520 attempts.  They invested in protecting him.  And 600 attempts would be enough to replicate last years numbers at pretty pedestrian rates of production.
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Burrow is going to be fine for two reasons.   Chase and Higgins.  What a duo.  

 
TripItUp said:
All of this Burrow love is exactly why he's overvalued...will be fun to revisit this in 6 months.
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I might fade Burrow a little in redraft, but he's pretty sexy to us dynasty owners.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
DEN WR's...no doubt this group will wind up being productive collectively.  But if 3 people from the same movie/TV show get nominated for Best Actor, generally they split the vote.  And a true alpha hasn't emerged to date with this group.
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I'm putting my money on Sutton being the guy there. Another year removed from knee surgery, and he has a 1100-yard season on his resume with Flacco/Lock. 

TheDirtyWord said:
He's a legit star.  Like all-time type potential.  One of the craziest stats from his season ago was that in 20 total games, he was sacked 70 times.  People blame David Carr getting sacked 70 times in a season as a reason for why he never turned into anything yet Burrow is leading a team that drafted him #1 overall to a SB appearance less than two years after going 2-14.
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Slightly off topic, but I'll always believe Carr wasn't going to be good anyway, and most of those sacks were his fault, as he basically refused to throw it away. That latter point is true of Burrow as well. Most of his sacks were his fault too. That said, Burrow throws a perfect deep ball so, much like Russell Wilson, you accept the sacks because big plays more than make up for it. Carr never had the big plays. 

Deamon said:
It's tough though, what pick could this work with?  I guess in theory pick 7 or 8 could get your Chase and Jones but that would be not overly likely.  And No chance SB is there at 3.07.
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I could see Barkley being that in the mid-3rd round. There are SO MANY people who have been burned by him (or the Giants in general) that despite his ADP, nobody wants to be the one to pull the trigger. I could see a similar logic happening with Kyle Pitts/Falcons this year too. 

 
travdogg said:
I could see Barkley being that in the mid-3rd round. There are SO MANY people who have been burned by him (or the Giants in general) that despite his ADP, nobody wants to be the one to pull the trigger. I could see a similar logic happening with Kyle Pitts/Falcons this year too. 
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This is coming from someone who was burned already, but Saquon wouldn't make it past me at 3.1, let alone mid 3rd.

 
Saquon. Fool me once…

Giants still can’t admit Jones isn’t the answer and even if Saquon stays healthy, Jones will tank his value. I’ll let him be someone else’s “value” pick. 

 
bostonfred said:
I'll pass on deebo at his current price.  I don't really care about the rushing and I'm a fan of his talent but the uncertainty with Lance at qb, plus aiyuk and kittle, plus the possibility that shanahan leans on the run game to protect lance early... i think the risk is greater than the reward. 
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That’s who I came to post. Way too many variables that have to hit to justify that adp. New QB, maybe new role, new OC, contract situation.  If all 4 don’t end up being a problem, you’ll get 2rd return for your 2rd pick.  

 
gump said:
Agree…what ADP driving the overvalued talk? The FBG writers even went that route.
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FBG Experts ADP is 10

CBS 11

Consensus is 7.

He's pretty much going after Hurts and Murray.  The ceiling is definitely higher than Hurts and the floor is hi with Chase and Higgins.  

My strategy this year has been to let people reach on Allen and Mahomes, wait until Hurts and Murray are drafted.  If at that time Herbert and LJax are available I might give them a look, but usually they are gone.  For there is managing the draft position and who's taken at QB to get one of Brady, Dak, Burrow, Rodgers, Stafford, Wilson.  While I like all those guys, my preference is Burrow and Wilson.

 
BassNBrew said:
My strategy this year has been to let people reach on Allen and Mahomes, wait until Hurts and Murray are drafted.  If at that time Herbert and LJax are available I might give them a look, but usually they are gone.  For there is managing the draft position and who's taken at QB to get one of Brady, Dak, Burrow, Rodgers, Stafford, Wilson.  While I like all those guys, my preference is Burrow and Wilson.
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get out of my brain! 

 
Toss up between Deebo and Tyreek, who are both overpriced with major changes around them from last season.

Give me Tee, AJ, or Pittman before any of these two.

 
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