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The one guy you want (1 Viewer)

moleculo

Footballguy
for a late round flyer, look to KJ Hamler. he will come dirt cheap due to his injury last year, plus Jeudy/Sutton/Albert O, he's kind of the forgotten man. But consider this - Wilson is perhaps the best deep thrower in the league, and Hamler is an excellent deep threat. 2nd round draft pedigree to boot. Can he play the Tyler Lockett role?
 

Nero

Footballguy
Fournette, Akers, Allen Robinson and Thielen
When I read this I thought I was in the "The One Guy You want...To Avoid" thread.
You are probably in the majority. That is why I like these players at ADP.

Fournette was RB2 from weeks 10-15. Unless you think Rachaad White is cutting into his workload, he is likely top 5 based on volume an TD potential.

Darrel Henderson was RB11 over the first half of the season. I see that as the floor for Akers.

Thielen was a WR1 until he was injured. I feel like he is at worst a high end WR2.

I think Robinson has WR1 potential in the Rams offense.
 

Grid71

Footballguy
Kareem Hunt. Browns would have won at least 3 more games last season if they’d just stuck with their dominant run attack to close out games. Watson will miss extended time setting up a heavy dose of Chubb and Hunt in 2022. There is also a possibility another team loses their starting RB and seeks a trade.
 

Cadence calls

Footballguy
1 guy I want?
Thats easy
Gotta be JT.
Be it auction or redraft (1.01)
I can build my whole team around him.

Assuming I don’t get JT, or any of the top 5 guys in a snake,
Id go with Josh Allen. I’d take him in the 3rd in redraft. No sheet.
Hes gonna be a top 3 QB, and I can also build a team around him.
 

Cadence calls

Footballguy
Aside from those 2 obvious guys (and JJ, Kupp, etc)
and we are talking redraft
I gotta have Penny as I think he is gonna be a RB1 this year.
And can be had in the 4- 6 range

Also, Breece Hall, who can be had around the same spot as Penny.

If I came out of my zero rib draft with Penny and Hall, Id be freaking stoked.
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Aside from those 2 obvious guys (and JJ, Kupp, etc)
and we are talking redraft
I gotta have Penny as I think he is gonna be a RB1 this year.
And can be had in the 4- 6 range

Also, Breece Hall, who can be had around the same spot as Penny.

If I came out of my zero rib draft with Penny and Hall, Id be freaking stoked.
The problem with Penny is you then have to grab Walker the next round, unless you envision a season where Penny finally stays healthy. Obviously it’s not impossible that he does, but sometimes you can’t ignore the track record.
 
This is basically for redrafters. I have the 12th overall pick in a 12-teamer. I have been mocking quite a bit the last week or 2, and have found myself taking Tom Brady at the 7/8 turn over and over. I tried snagging QB's at the 3/4, 5/6, and 9/10 turns, but by far, my favorite outcomes are when I take Brady at 7/8. This is not meant to be a QB discussion - more of a who and where do you take your guy in redraft?


TheWinz, good to see another familiar face still posting here after all these years.

I have several must haves this year, and here are a few with some brief reasoning.

Note, pretty much all my must-haves over the years are guys you can get later in drafts, with fairly strong upside. I virtually NEVER have a top 5-ish guy as a must have since they are drafted so highly anyway. I'm trying to steal upside and value later in drafts.

CeeDee Lamb - As I just pointed out in the Lamb thread, I think hes almost a dead lock for high end WR2/Low end WR1 production, with a slight emphasis towards early season production. i.e. no Gallup.

Michael Pittman - I usually play in 3 WR leagues, and in drafts you can sometimes get Pittman as an WR3/late WR2. With Matt Ryan there now, I think he should have a pretty solid floor.

Brandin Cooks - Same as Pittman, though you can get him even later. Lack of defense, a suspect run game and very little competition for targets.....all green lights. Check out the depth chart after Cooks. Seriously? :lol: This guy have produced everywhere he has played....when healthy. He finished as WR21 or thereabouts last year, depending on format and you can get him for pennies on the dollar in drafts.

Rashaad Penny - Going late as well, you may possibly get low end RB1 value on the cheap. Though injury concerns are there, so if I get him I might try and handcuff him with Walker. Plus, Carson is now gone.

Ezekiel Elliot - I won't be owning Elliot and Lamb in the same leagues, but I'm usually in many so I can acquire both pieces from a good offense and spread them out across multiple leagues. The Cowboys, for whatever reason seem to be dedicated to Elliot, and he was playing injured all last season. He is another prime handcuff suspect too. If I own Elliot, I will be damn sure to reach for Pollard.
I really like the Brandin Cooks call. Every year in my keeper league (10 team 10 player keeper) he gets dropped. Every year I draft him as my WR 5. I would like that trend to continue this year.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
Aside from those 2 obvious guys (and JJ, Kupp, etc)
and we are talking redraft
I gotta have Penny as I think he is gonna be a RB1 this year.
And can be had in the 4- 6 range

Also, Breece Hall, who can be had around the same spot as Penny.

If I came out of my zero rib draft with Penny and Hall, Id be freaking stoked.

Regarding Penny - very difficult to attain RB1 status on what may be the worst team in the NFC.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
The guy I try to get in every draft is Isaiah Mckenzie. I have always liked his talent and was surprised he wasn't used more. He is now gonna be the starting slot WR for the Bills. He is a much more explosive Cole Beasley and will be used in other creative ways. Crowder is always hurt so I'm not too concerned about the competition.

Others I like....

Diontae Johnson......Too many people think he is just a volume guy. I think he has a chance to be elite with a QB who can get him the ball down field.

Julio Jones......Godwin may be slow to getting back to good health. Evans will always pull a hammy at some point. Gronk is gone for now. He is going super late in drafts. I think he is an easy pick. Tom fricking Brady is his QB.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
One of the top 5 WRs. Not as specific, I realize, but that’s my redraft answer.

I feel like in there are 5 locked and loaded elite WR, then a big drop-off to a large group of virtually interchangeable assets at the position.

in whichever order you prefer,

Kupp, Adams, Jefferson, Chase, Diggs.

Some of the next tier has players with more upside than others, of course, but in redraft I absolutely want an elite WR with my 1st pick, then RB-RB, then I’ll start playing it by ear.

Ordinarily I don’t love picks 4-5 but this year I’m feeling pretty good if I’m drafting an elite WR there & getting good value on RBs in the 2nd & 3rd. Swift, Barkley, Lenny all seem to be hanging out there for that 2.07-2.08 spot, and that’s a really nice way to start a draft this year.

if i wind up 9-12, and none of those 5 are on the board, I’m probably taking a RB with my 1st pick and making Lamb & Evans my priorities in the 2nd. It’s less ideal, but it could also work well.
Are you concerned about the offensive line for the Raiders? I think Adams is a very safe pick but I am concerned about any ceiling potential especially with Renfro and Waller there.

Regarding Diggs, I'm a little concerned that he is no longer Josh's only guy. Gabe D is gonna start demanding targets. They may have an excellent pass catching back now with James Cook. I love I Mckenzie in the slot. Dawson Knox may get more looks. Year one it was just Diggs and Allen.

I also like to start with an elite WR since I am in a 3 WR league and they go fast. Also, there will be good RB's in the second round. I just kinda feel like Diggs and Adams may be a bit limited in upside compared to others.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
Pitts (3rd) - Great talent, but Mariota sucks and ATL won't score that much. 3rd rounder way too rich given the RBs and WRs that are on the board.
Delanie Walker did pretty well with Mariota as his QB. I think he was a top 6 TE those years. I think Pitts is destined to be the TE 1 for years to come at some point. It sounds like they are going to try to get him lined up more with LB's this year as opposed to playing against elite corners on the outside. I think the gamble on Pitts elite ability is worth the risk.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
One of the top 5 WRs. Not as specific, I realize, but that’s my redraft answer.

I feel like in there are 5 locked and loaded elite WR, then a big drop-off to a large group of virtually interchangeable assets at the position.

in whichever order you prefer,

Kupp, Adams, Jefferson, Chase, Diggs.

Some of the next tier has players with more upside than others, of course, but in redraft I absolutely want an elite WR with my 1st pick, then RB-RB, then I’ll start playing it by ear.

Ordinarily I don’t love picks 4-5 but this year I’m feeling pretty good if I’m drafting an elite WR there & getting good value on RBs in the 2nd & 3rd. Swift, Barkley, Lenny all seem to be hanging out there for that 2.07-2.08 spot, and that’s a really nice way to start a draft this year.

if i wind up 9-12, and none of those 5 are on the board, I’m probably taking a RB with my 1st pick and making Lamb & Evans my priorities in the 2nd. It’s less ideal, but it could also work well.
Are you concerned about the offensive line for the Raiders? I think Adams is a very safe pick but I am concerned about any ceiling potential especially with Renfro and Waller there.

Regarding Diggs, I'm a little concerned that he is no longer Josh's only guy. Gabe D is gonna start demanding targets. They may have an excellent pass catching back now with James Cook. I love I Mckenzie in the slot. Dawson Knox may get more looks. Year one it was just Diggs and Allen.

I also like to start with an elite WR since I am in a 3 WR league and they go fast. Also, there will be good RB's in the second round. I just kinda feel like Diggs and Adams may be a bit limited in upside compared to others.
Oh I absolutely have JJ, Kupp & Chase above Adams and Diggs.

That said, because of the depth of RB I’d still rather take a shot on Adams or Diggs (if they’re on the board) and then get a potentially elite RB in the 2nd than take the RB at 7-8-9 and take a 2nd round WR

As for Oakland’s OL, I have no concerns. Carr has played behind a suspect line at various times in his career and done well. I expect that offense to be explosive. The presence of Renfrow & Waller keeps defenses from sending everything at Adams. I expect a bigger than people think year from him.
 
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Mongidig

Footballguy
One of the top 5 WRs. Not as specific, I realize, but that’s my redraft answer.

I feel like in there are 5 locked and loaded elite WR, then a big drop-off to a large group of virtually interchangeable assets at the position.

in whichever order you prefer,

Kupp, Adams, Jefferson, Chase, Diggs.

Some of the next tier has players with more upside than others, of course, but in redraft I absolutely want an elite WR with my 1st pick, then RB-RB, then I’ll start playing it by ear.

Ordinarily I don’t love picks 4-5 but this year I’m feeling pretty good if I’m drafting an elite WR there & getting good value on RBs in the 2nd & 3rd. Swift, Barkley, Lenny all seem to be hanging out there for that 2.07-2.08 spot, and that’s a really nice way to start a draft this year.

if i wind up 9-12, and none of those 5 are on the board, I’m probably taking a RB with my 1st pick and making Lamb & Evans my priorities in the 2nd. It’s less ideal, but it could also work well.
Are you concerned about the offensive line for the Raiders? I think Adams is a very safe pick but I am concerned about any ceiling potential especially with Renfro and Waller there.

Regarding Diggs, I'm a little concerned that he is no longer Josh's only guy. Gabe D is gonna start demanding targets. They may have an excellent pass catching back now with James Cook. I love I Mckenzie in the slot. Dawson Knox may get more looks. Year one it was just Diggs and Allen.

I also like to start with an elite WR since I am in a 3 WR league and they go fast. Also, there will be good RB's in the second round. I just kinda feel like Diggs and Adams may be a bit limited in upside compared to others.
Oh I absolutely have JJ, Kupp & Chase above Adams and Diggs.

That said, because of the depth of RB I’d still rather take a shot on Adams or Diggs (if they’re on the board) and then get a potentially elite RB in the 2nd than take the RB at 7-8-9 and take a 2nd round WR

As for Oakland’s OL, I have no concerns. Care has played behind a suspect line at various times in his career and done well. I expect that offense to be explosive. The presence of Renfrow & Waller keeps defenses from sending everything at Adams. I expect a bigger than people think year from him.
I'm picking at 9 today in my first online championship draft. My choices will be either Diggs, Cooks, or Adams. I'm toying with the idea of taking Swift because I think he's gonna be huge this year but he also sometimes falls to my pick in the second round. I've thought Adams was a bit too high in ADP but I am coming around on him. There is something strange going on with Waller. He has hammy issues, contract issues etc. I was concerned about the QB downgrade but Carr is still pretty darn good and you know he will try to feed his boy.
 

massraider

Footballguy
Courtland Sutton--WR2 prices, and I think he has WR2 floor, and top 5 WR ceiling.

Wilson can support two really good WR, and I think it possible Jeudy is only decent, and may be a clear #2 to Sutton. 160 targets are gone (Fant/Patrick), I think Albert O and Hamler are JAGs, and after a knee injury, and a Drew Lock season, I think he's flying under the radar. He's a year younger than Mike Williams, that blew my mind.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I'm picking at 9 today in my first online championship draft. My choices will be either Diggs, Cooks, or Adams. I'm toying with the idea of taking Swift because I think he's gonna be huge this year but he also sometimes falls to my pick in the second round. I've thought Adams was a bit too high in ADP but I am coming around on him. There is something strange going on with Waller. He has hammy issues, contract issues etc. I was concerned about the QB downgrade but Carr is still pretty darn good and you know he will try to feed his boy.
I feel like the two biggest ADP-driving false narratives this off-season have been Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Team changes tend to scare FF managers more than sometimes warranted. IMO Adams is a virtual lock for ~85% of his GB production, and of course he's capable of more. I expect a ton of shootouts in that division, and Adams should be one of the primary beneficiaries.
85% of his 2021 production = 104 receptions, 1320 rec yd, 9 TD.
90% of his 2021 production = 110/1397/10

Pretty close to what I expect from Chase, tbh.

Then you can get one of Swift, Barkley or Kamara on the way back?

Yes please.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
I'm picking at 9 today in my first online championship draft. My choices will be either Diggs, Cooks, or Adams. I'm toying with the idea of taking Swift because I think he's gonna be huge this year but he also sometimes falls to my pick in the second round. I've thought Adams was a bit too high in ADP but I am coming around on him. There is something strange going on with Waller. He has hammy issues, contract issues etc. I was concerned about the QB downgrade but Carr is still pretty darn good and you know he will try to feed his boy.
I feel like the two biggest ADP-driving false narratives this off-season have been Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Team changes tend to scare FF managers more than sometimes warranted. IMO Adams is a virtual lock for ~85% of his GB production, and of course he's capable of more. I expect a ton of shootouts in that division, and Adams should be one of the primary beneficiaries.
85% of his 2021 production = 104 receptions, 1320 rec yd, 9 TD.
90% of his 2021 production = 110/1397/10

Pretty close to what I expect from Chase, tbh.

Then you can get one of Swift, Barkley or Kamara on the way back?

Yes please.
The bottom line is Adams is a complete stud. Kamara does seem to fall to my second pick. He scares me. I'm deciding between him, A Jones, and Kelce. I don't think Barkley will be there. Swift might but it's a long shot. If I do get the WR in the first and RB in the second I have a chance at Andrews or Pitts in the third which I love.

Do you like Diggs or Adams better?
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Regarding Diggs, I'm a little concerned that he is no longer Josh's only guy. Gabe D is gonna start demanding targets. They may have an excellent pass catching back now with James Cook. I love I Mckenzie in the slot. Dawson Knox may get more looks. Year one it was just Diggs and Allen.
Possible but also Diggs kind of got unlucky last year. The peripheral stats indicate he should have had a better a year than he did. He was 2nd in air yards, 7th in deep targets, 2nd in RZ targets, 2nd in unrealized air yards. Even if his target share dips a bit, he could make up for it by getting a little more luck on the deep shots and RZ looks. That said, I don't think he is going to be able to repeat his 2021 numbers.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I'm picking at 9 today in my first online championship draft. My choices will be either Diggs, Cooks, or Adams. I'm toying with the idea of taking Swift because I think he's gonna be huge this year but he also sometimes falls to my pick in the second round. I've thought Adams was a bit too high in ADP but I am coming around on him. There is something strange going on with Waller. He has hammy issues, contract issues etc. I was concerned about the QB downgrade but Carr is still pretty darn good and you know he will try to feed his boy.
I feel like the two biggest ADP-driving false narratives this off-season have been Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Team changes tend to scare FF managers more than sometimes warranted. IMO Adams is a virtual lock for ~85% of his GB production, and of course he's capable of more. I expect a ton of shootouts in that division, and Adams should be one of the primary beneficiaries.
85% of his 2021 production = 104 receptions, 1320 rec yd, 9 TD.
90% of his 2021 production = 110/1397/10

Pretty close to what I expect from Chase, tbh.

Then you can get one of Swift, Barkley or Kamara on the way back?

Yes please.
The bottom line is Adams is a complete stud. Kamara does seem to fall to my second pick. He scares me. I'm deciding between him, A Jones, and Kelce. I don't think Barkley will be there. Swift might but it's a long shot. If I do get the WR in the first and RB in the second I have a chance at Andrews or Pitts in the third which I love.

Do you like Diggs or Adams better?
Adams > Diggs

The ADP suggests the FF community sees Diggs as better, presumably due to playing with Josh Allen.

I disagree. I love Diggs, but I think Adams is the WR to target if you miss the big 3. Barkley made it to me at 2.08 on Saturday in my home league. Ya never know.

Kamara's top 5 overall upside calms any fears I have about him. I started out one NFC high stakes exactly like that with Adams -> Kamara.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Courtland Sutton--WR2 prices, and I think he has WR2 floor, and top 5 WR ceiling.

Wilson can support two really good WR, and I think it possible Jeudy is only decent, and may be a clear #2 to Sutton. 160 targets are gone (Fant/Patrick), I think Albert O and Hamler are JAGs, and after a knee injury, and a Drew Lock season, I think he's flying under the radar. He's a year younger than Mike Williams, that blew my mind.
I could be wrong but it looks like the AFC West is going to be a Wild Wild West when these 4 teams play each other, having one of the top 3-4 WRs for targets on these teams will pay dividends and I think you have 1 of them.

34-31 should be a popular score in these showdowns of QBs and Air Raids
 

Pipes

Footballguy
Jerry Jeudy. Guy is an excellent talent that now has a legit QB throwing to him. His adp of WR 27-32 is way too low imo. Buying every chance I get
 

Manster

Footballguy
I'm trying to get as many shares of Stafford/Kupp/Arob as I can......unless the elbow is real issue, this trio will win leagues, especially the value of Staff and ARob.

Agree on Cooks. I got him criminally late last night as my WR 3/4 and I'm beyond happy.

Godwin is another guy, based on uncertainty, and therefore sliding down to great value.

I like Dillon quite a bit too. All signs point to him getting a lot of touches. Great snag if you go WR heavy to start.
 

Stat Correction

Footballguy
Guys that I'm often walking away with in redrafts based on value:

Burrow - Ridiculous weapons and vastly improved o-line. Am banking on more running from him this season also, now that he's another year away from his injury. Does anyone remember how well he scrambled in college? Think he can have a P. Manning-esque ascension if everything breaks right.

Mixon - Another guy that I've never been that high on before....but last year erased any doubts. Will catch a lot of passes again, and was a TD machine in 2021. The real deal.

Hunt - Have never drafted him much in the past, but his value this year is ridiculous. All he ever does is produce. Startable as it is, but with a Chubb injury or a trade....he could be golden. (Note: also picking up D'Ernest as a late flyer. He convinced me last year that he is the real deal when given the opportunity).

Penny - Risky? Yes. However, the price is right and he e finally showed what he is capable of late last season with the combo of opportunity and health. 7.2 ypc over the last 5-6 games with multiple TD's? 6th or 7th round redraft RB? Yes, please.

Andrews - Love Schultz too, but Andrews will be the cog of that Ravens offense. With Hollywood gone, he is the guy that Lamar will trust, and he simply has a knack for getting open and winning in the end zone. 1,000 yards and 10+ TD's should be a locked in floor, if healthy.

Amon-Ra St. Brown - Seriously, this guy got his sealegs in the second half of the season and straight dominated.....as a rookie on a bad team, no less. He was basically the only skill player left standing for D's to cover....and they couldn't. Goff knows who "the man" is now, and has stated as much publicly. Jameson Williams is injured and will behind on development when he finally returns. Are we really concerned about DJ Chark? Believe your eyes.

Elijah Moore - Another "believe your eyes" situation. The guy was a beast before he went down last year. Garrett Wilson will be the real deal, but rookie WR's are often slow out of the gate (like Moore was). Starts the season with Flacco, who peppered him last year. With Breece in the backfield, defenses will have to remain honest. Gimme some Moore!

Lazard
- Adams and MVS gone. Rodgers still Rodgers. Who's gonna be on the receiving end of his 3,500+ yards and 30+ TD's? No, Lazard isn't the next coming of Donald Driver, but the guy is a baller and has earned Rodger's trust. Multuple TD's late last season only solidifies my belief that he will be trusted early and often. Insane value.
 

Wigglytuff's Gruff

Footballguy
I don't think there's anyone for me this year. Feel like whatever gets thrown my way/comes to me in the draft I'll be content with it and make it competitive.
 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
non believer in Schultz no way he can top last years numbers, a regression is due. He's a one trick pony, i.e., curl route.wash.rinse.repeat. something tells me Dallas is about to fall off the cliff this season, McCarthy's last year as HC of the Cowboys.

one guy I want is Devonta Smith. Reports out of camp is that this guy is 100% uncoverable, unstoppable, just like he was at Alabama. Takes a giant leap in year 2, catches 90+ balls and 12+ TDs. Eagles gonna pass the ball like crazy!
another guy I want is Trevor Lawrence - dude looks RAZOR sharp so far in camp. quantum leap forward in year two is coming.
Mike Williams
Darrell Henderson is the starter with the Rams getting him everywhere I can.. Cam Akers can only make one cut in practice, and that's on the non-achilles injured foot. he's toast. anyone claiming they want Cam Akers is nuts.in the history of the NFL, there has never been a RB to return to his previous self once tearing an Achilles. Are you guys nuts? you think this Akers bum is going to be anything more than a seat warmer for the remainder of his career?! name one RB to return from an Achilles to be even somewhat successful. oh you need more time? I'll wait. still thinking? HMU in november when Akers has barely 150 rush yards to his name.
Elijah Moore
George Pickens
I. Likely
 

LawFitz

Footballguy
The only two must haves for me this year are Justin Jefferson (have him rated #2 overall, just behind Taylor); and

George Pickens - I've not been as high on a rookie WR in a long while. Redraft concerns be damned. He's better than Dionte and Claypool right now. Only a matter of time before Tomlin realizes it. I'll let GP percolate as my WR5 until he does.
 

Manster

Footballguy
I've done two redrafts so far and I have drafted St Brown in both as WR 4/flex territory....i didn't set out to draft him....but the value was too good

Pretty standard scoring, .25 ppr I think....he's one of those dudes that slips even though he finished the year strong, and looks to continue to be Goff's favorite target......and the shiny new toy is injured. Chark and Hockenson will get love, but what am I missing? I know it's the lions, but they look like they might actually be competent on offense.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
non believer in Schultz no way he can top last years numbers, a regression is due.
He’s been top 4 in TE scoring the last 2 years.

There’s a dearth of pass catchers and they franchised him. Dude’s a lock for production at a 6-7 round price. I recall reading he had more 10+ point performances than all but 4 TE over the last 2 years.

He’s not flashy. He’s not going to give you Pitts, Andrews or Kelce upside. But there’s plenty of upside in PPR, and I believe he’ll outscote Goeddart, Kmet, Irv, ‘Muth, and a number of other preseason darlings at the position. Top 6 seems quite realistic.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
one guy I want is Devonta Smith. Reports out of camp is that this guy is 100% uncoverable, unstoppable, just like he was at Alabama. Takes a giant leap in year 2, catches 90+ balls and 12+ TDs. Eagles gonna pass the ball like crazy!
Hasn’t he been DTD much of the preseason? Where’s that word coming from and who’s trying to cover him on the sidelines?

I have him as my Wr5 in a 16 team dynasty league so I really hope you’re right. I’d love to deal him for an elite LB or DT at some point this year.
 

massraider

Footballguy
Hasn’t he been DTD much of the preseason? Where’s that word coming from and who’s trying to cover him on the sidelines?

I have him as my Wr5 in a 16 team dynasty league so I really hope you’re right. I’d love to deal him for an elite LB or DT at some point this year.
I heard this too. I think when I heard it I was at the tattoo parlor, where Jalen Hurts was getting AJ Brown's face tattooed on his chest.
 

JAA

Footballguy
As an Eagles fan I hate to say it, but Im on the Ezekiel Elliott ADP bandwagon. If he doesnt perform well this year he could be a cut candidate based on his Cap Savings (https://overthecap.com/player/ezekiel-elliott/4717). Unlikely, but I believe he has to perform here on out.

Next - does anyone believe Elliott is really a bum? Is he a top 5 back? Prolly not. However, if he finishes as a top 10 RB, would anyone be surprised? He is 27 and averaged 240 touches last 2 seasons (career lows by game average).

I feel like Elliott is primed for a comeback season, at least not a regression. His ADP in PPR is like ~28. Feels like good value for a potential top 10 RB in PPR.
 

Captain_Apocalypse

Footballguy
Aside from those 2 obvious guys (and JJ, Kupp, etc)
and we are talking redraft
I gotta have Penny as I think he is gonna be a RB1 this year.
And can be had in the 4- 6 range

Also, Breece Hall, who can be had around the same spot as Penny.

If I came out of my zero rib draft with Penny and Hall, Id be freaking stoked.
As a Seahawks fan I really don't want a share of any of these guys... The top rusher on that team is likely to be Travis Homer or DJ Dallas...
Though Penny is the best bet IMO, if he stays healthy... Big IF though
 

Gally

Footballguy
A-Rob is the guy I must have. It would not surprise me if he outscores Kupp and is the #1 WR for the Rams this year.
 

Zow

Footballguy
Trey Lance late all day. Huge upside this year.
I'm with you on Lance. Though, in standard leagues you really need to pull the trigger before the 8th round so not sure what you mean by "late."

I also really am targeting the following above their ADP:
1. Rhamondre Stevenson
2. Brandin Cooks
3. Michael Pittman
 

Weebs210

Footballguy
When I say late that's basically what I mean. Shoring up all my other positions and depth and watch teams draft qbs. I judge when I should grab him based on that. Unfortunately I did miss on him in one league by literally one pick. It was a live draft and I heard the guy say "let's try something new this year". I immediately knew he was taking lance.
 

massraider

Footballguy
When I say late that's basically what I mean. Shoring up all my other positions and depth and watch teams draft qbs. I judge when I should grab him based on that. Unfortunately I did miss on him in one league by literally one pick. It was a live draft and I heard the guy say "let's try something new this year". I immediately knew he was taking lance.
Matt Stafford threw 40 TDs, was like QB11 and didn't win anyone anything in fantasy.

I am blown away by Lance's ranking. I like the team, his potential, everything. He could have a great year, and be QB16.
 

Weebs210

Footballguy
That is a pretty bad comparison considering Stafford probably runs like a 5.5 40. Lance brings upside with his legs.
 

Galileo

Footballguy
Courtland Sutton--WR2 prices, and I think he has WR2 floor, and top 5 WR ceiling.

Wilson can support two really good WR, and I think it possible Jeudy is only decent, and may be a clear #2 to Sutton. 160 targets are gone (Fant/Patrick), I think Albert O and Hamler are JAGs, and after a knee injury, and a Drew Lock season, I think he's flying under the radar. He's a year younger than Mike Williams, that blew my mind.
I hope he shines. I went RB-RB to start at the back end of my draft and got Sutton and M. Williams at the 3-4 turn to be my WR1a and WR1b
 

Phantom Knight

Footballguy
I'm picking at 9 today in my first online championship draft. My choices will be either Diggs, Cooks, or Adams. I'm toying with the idea of taking Swift because I think he's gonna be huge this year but he also sometimes falls to my pick in the second round. I've thought Adams was a bit too high in ADP but I am coming around on him. There is something strange going on with Waller. He has hammy issues, contract issues etc. I was concerned about the QB downgrade but Carr is still pretty darn good and you know he will try to feed his boy.
I feel like the two biggest ADP-driving false narratives this off-season have been Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Team changes tend to scare FF managers more than sometimes warranted. IMO Adams is a virtual lock for ~85% of his GB production, and of course he's capable of more. I expect a ton of shootouts in that division, and Adams should be one of the primary beneficiaries.
85% of his 2021 production = 104 receptions, 1320 rec yd, 9 TD.
90% of his 2021 production = 110/1397/10

Pretty close to what I expect from Chase, tbh.

Then you can get one of Swift, Barkley or Kamara on the way back?

Yes please.
Like HSG, and as you are leaning, I'd have to take Adams at the 9 assuming he is still there.
 

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