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The one guy you want (1 Viewer)

TheWinz

Footballguy
This is basically for redrafters.  I have the 12th overall pick in a 12-teamer.  I have been mocking quite a bit the last week or 2, and have found myself taking Tom Brady at the 7/8 turn over and over.  I tried snagging QB's at the 3/4, 5/6, and 9/10 turns, but by far, my favorite outcomes are when I take Brady at 7/8.  This is not meant to be a QB discussion - more of a who and where do you take your guy in redraft?

 
This is basically for redrafters.  I have the 12th overall pick in a 12-teamer.  I have been mocking quite a bit the last week or 2, and have found myself taking Tom Brady at the 7/8 turn over and over.  I tried snagging QB's at the 3/4, 5/6, and 9/10 turns, but by far, my favorite outcomes are when I take Brady at 7/8.  This is not meant to be a QB discussion - more of a who and where do you take your guy in redraft?


 TheWinz, good to see another familiar face still posting here after all these years. 

I have several must haves this year, and here are a few with some brief reasoning.

Note, pretty much all my must-haves over the years are guys you can get later in drafts, with fairly strong upside. I virtually NEVER have a top 5-ish guy as a must have since they are drafted so highly anyway. I'm trying to steal upside and value later in drafts.

CeeDee Lamb -  As I just pointed out in the Lamb thread, I think hes almost a dead lock for high end WR2/Low end WR1 production, with a slight emphasis towards early season production. i.e. no Gallup.

Michael Pittman - I usually play in 3 WR leagues, and in drafts you can sometimes get Pittman as an WR3/late WR2.  With Matt Ryan there now, I think he should have a pretty solid floor.

Brandin Cooks -  Same as Pittman, though you can get him even later. Lack of defense, a suspect run game and very little competition for targets.....all green lights.  Check out the depth chart after Cooks. Seriously?   :lol:    This guy have produced everywhere he has played....when healthy. He finished as WR21 or thereabouts last year, depending on format and you can get him for pennies on the dollar in drafts.

 Rashaad Penny -  Going late as well, you may possibly get low end RB1 value on the cheap.  Though injury concerns are there, so if I get him I might try and handcuff him with Walker. Plus, Carson is now gone.

Ezekiel Elliot - I won't be owning Elliot and Lamb in the same leagues, but I'm usually in many so I can acquire both pieces from a good offense and spread them out across multiple leagues. The Cowboys, for whatever reason seem to be dedicated to Elliot, and he was playing injured all last season.   He is another prime handcuff suspect too. If I own Elliot, I will be damn sure to reach for Pollard.

 
Having a hard time passing on Javonte at the 1/2 turn. I know Gordon is back and I may regret it, but not really liking any of the mocks I do where he isn't one of my 2 picks there.

 
Having a hard time passing on Javonte at the 1/2 turn. I know Gordon is back and I may regret it, but not really liking any of the mocks I do where he isn't one of my 2 picks there.


 I owned Javonte everywhere last year in redraft......and in the spots I didn't have Gordon as well, I actually traded early season for Gordon. I expected a bit of a timeshare, and thats exactly what happened.  I never mind these scenarios, for if an injury occurs, you have instant RB1 (or close) production.   Last year both oddly avoided any sizeable injury time off, so it was a bit of a cluster####. (I drafted them as my RB3 ish types, so it didn't cripple me anyway).

This year smells like a full-blown Javonte breakout season, so I can see the thought process.  I just don't like pulling the trigger on him at the 1/2 turn, as its not like we have seen "high end elite production" from him yet. Unless there is a Gordon injury, I would assume Javonte gets about 70% of the work as a guess. Which may be strong, but I don't know if I can justify such an early pick for that.

 
This is basically for redrafters.  I have the 12th overall pick in a 12-teamer.  I have been mocking quite a bit the last week or 2, and have found myself taking Tom Brady at the 7/8 turn over and over.  I tried snagging QB's at the 3/4, 5/6, and 9/10 turns, but by far, my favorite outcomes are when I take Brady at 7/8.  This is not meant to be a QB discussion - more of a who and where do you take your guy in redraft?
I found myself in this exact situation last year.  In all my re-draft leagues I ended up with Brady.  It was right about that same time.  After the top-sexy QB's picks went off the board and Brady was always sitting there.  I don't see much difference for this year.  

For this year guys in my mind that seem like I would want to target are the following:

  • Allen Robinson - I have always been a fan and think he is a tremendous WR.  Last year was an anomaly and don't put any weight into his current skills.  My only worry is that camp notes will be too good and his ADP will creep up to far where he isn't an auto draft for me.  I would like as my WR3 in the 6th/7th but I fear he is creeping up into the 4/5 range when all said and done.
  • Zeke Elliott - I love him as my RB2.  Late 3rd/early 4th would be ideal.  Probably depends on your league whether he makes it that far or not.  How many are soured on him and high on Pollard.
  • Devante Parker - I think he will be a great fit with Mac.  I haven't looked into ADP but as I could see doubling up with A-Rob as the 7th/8th rounders
  • Irv Smith - I am a believer.  His cost is so low with top 5 upside in eyes.  
  • Adam Thielen - I think he will be overlooked and his price will be right.  He is still a red zone factor for Cousins.  
  • AJ Dillon - I believe.  He will be a priority get that I will reach for to make sure I get him.  
  • Eli Mitchell - I don't think SF backfield is as hard to figure out as most think.  If Mitchell falls enough I can see me taking the plunge
  • Robert Woods - Isn't on the PUP and will be forgotten as usual.  
 
Comments are more about team situations I like or dislike versus specific player ADPs...which will change a lot in the next month....

List excludes QBs...I like Carr, Cousins, Fields, Jones as potential value plays at that position.  Tua, Mariota, and Kyler Murray on bust watch.

Avoiding Arizona...bad smell.

Selective Atlanta....Patterson trickeration, Pitts targets, Koo volume

Resurgent Baltimore run game a year after injury decimation.

Continued Buffalo passing game success.

Carolina studs only (CMC, Moore)

Chicago slightly surprises with offense...Fields is an interesting flier.

Cincinnatti regression?  Less a superbowl hangover and more Baltimore resurgence.

Cleveland radioactive.

Dallas....overweight the Cowboys or the Eagles or both?

Detroit...continued pick and choose based on value.

Green Bay....skill position players on sale?  won't overweight but won't avoid.

Houston....Cooks, duh.

Indy - Taylor, Pittman, Mo Alie-Cox....Ryan will be overhyped but 7% better than Wentz.

Laxonville... Etiene, Marvin as value plays.

KC...no surprises Elaire, MVS, Kelce

Raiders.... heavy exposure.  am I a sheep?

Chargers...heavy exposure

Rams.  Akers, Kupp, Jefferson.

Miami...underweight.  Some Waddle, Gesicki.

Vikings... overweight.

Patriots... some exposure to Harris, Parker, Henry.

NO.... light exposure to Thomas and Landry

New York (both teams) zero exposure (maybe a flier on the milf-chasing qb)

Phi... heavy on Dallas or PHI or both?  (Javonta, Goedart)

Pit.  Harris.

SF.  LIght exposure.  Mitchell, Kittle.  monitor deebo drama.

Sea.  Light exposure.  Penny.  Gino is a franchise killer.

TB....Evans, Godwin

Ten. Light Exposure.  Henry.

Wash.  Avg exposure.  McLaurin, Gibson.

 
 I owned Javonte everywhere last year in redraft......and in the spots I didn't have Gordon as well, I actually traded early season for Gordon. I expected a bit of a timeshare, and thats exactly what happened.  I never mind these scenarios, for if an injury occurs, you have instant RB1 (or close) production.   Last year both oddly avoided any sizeable injury time off, so it was a bit of a cluster####. (I drafted them as my RB3 ish types, so it didn't cripple me anyway).

This year smells like a full-blown Javonte breakout season, so I can see the thought process.  I just don't like pulling the trigger on him at the 1/2 turn, as its not like we have seen "high end elite production" from him yet. Unless there is a Gordon injury, I would assume Javonte gets about 70% of the work as a guess. Which may be strong, but I don't know if I can justify such an early pick for that.
Yeah it's a bit high, but he won't be available at the 3/4, so I'm probably going to do it. I've got questions about everyone else likely to be available there anyway, so I'm just going to get the guy I like. Had him last year as my RB3 as well, so I know the Gordon frustration well. I think the pain of missing out on him if he breaks out big-time would be worse. Better than drafting someone who checks a box but I don't really like.

 
Agreeing with Lamb and Elliott but not both in the same league.  Question whether Elliott lasts into the late 3rd by late August though.

 
As an AJ Dillon owner (also javonte in that league so hope y’all don’t curse them) in dynasty I don’t love saying it but Aaron Jones in PPR at the rb13 is a lock imo. 
i think they’ll both have good seasons. Jones playing ekeler/kamara while Dillon gets a ton of carries. 

late round, especially now - I’m still taking Russell gage where I can get him almost free. 

 
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First name that came into my head was Russell Wilson. Seems like a good-to-great offense that was missing a QB... and Russ seems like a great fit. Think it's gonna come down to o-line play (which should be an improvement from SEA) but I think he could have a huge year. 

 
In terms of value plays:

QB Rodgers, Carr

RB Jones, Kamara

WR Deebo, AJ Brown

TE Schultz, Friermuth, Irv Smith

 
I found myself in this exact situation last year.  In all my re-draft leagues I ended up with Brady.  It was right about that same time.  After the top-sexy QB's picks went off the board and Brady was always sitting there.  I don't see much difference for this year.  

For this year guys in my mind that seem like I would want to target are the following:

  • Robert Woods - Isn't on the PUP and will be forgotten as usual.  
:goodposting:

 
CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman, Brandin Cooks, Rashaad Penny, Ezekiel Elliot
Since I know I have pick 12 and it's a snake draft...

CeeDee Lamb - I don't have to worry at all about him, because 2.1 is too early, and he's always gone by 3.12
Michael Pittman - He's available at the 3/4 turn quite often, and someone I've got my eyes on
Brandin Cooks - He's a gift at the 5/6 turn, and falls more often than he should
Rashaad Penny - His ADP puts him firmly at the 7/8 turn, but you'd likely have to double up and take Walker at the same time
Ezekiel Elliott - No way Zeke lasts until the end of round 3, so he won't be on my roster

 
Breece Hall gets the benefit (at the moment) of an OL I think can make a huge leap while the Jets look to manage Wilson to being a franchise QB eventually instead of hoping for a Herbert like explosion in Year 2.

Rhamondre Stevenson feels like a guy who'll rise about 3 rounds over the next 3 weeks.  Just too much buzz about him right now.  But I do think this is happening.

Chase Edmunds might look like he's in a crowded backfield, but his signing bonus was $3M more than Mostert/Michel combined and their first signing in FA.  And his 900 scrimmage yards in 11 games seems like it's being overlooked.

Allen Robinson is chomping at the bit.  The QB's he's had to carve a career from have been 🤮.  And I can't see Kupp doing what he did in 2021 again...Woods/OBJ went for 72/861/9

Deandre Hopkins is being discounted too heavily.

 
 TheWinz, good to see another familiar face still posting here after all these years. 

I have several must haves this year, and here are a few with some brief reasoning.

Note, pretty much all my must-haves over the years are guys you can get later in drafts, with fairly strong upside. I virtually NEVER have a top 5-ish guy as a must have since they are drafted so highly anyway. I'm trying to steal upside and value later in drafts.

CeeDee Lamb -  As I just pointed out in the Lamb thread, I think hes almost a dead lock for high end WR2/Low end WR1 production, with a slight emphasis towards early season production. i.e. no Gallup.


If he finishes as a high WR2/Low WR 1 then you are overpaying since Lamb is going off as the WR6 off the board.

 
Having a hard time passing on Javonte at the 1/2 turn. I know Gordon is back and I may regret it, but not really liking any of the mocks I do where he isn't one of my 2 picks there.
I do think Javonte has the skillset and body frame to be a bell cow, but sadly, so does Melvin.  It would serve DEN well to have a repeat performance by both RB's, but would suck for FF.

 
Rhamondre Stevenson


I like Rhamondre a lot. In a Pats fan heavy league so not sure I'll be able to get him at a value but I'd love to. Had him last year and as a Pats fan got to see a lot of his games. Looked good, rough around the edges, but so was a lot of the offense. If he has upped his pass-pro game him and Harris could be a wild 1-2 punch.

 
Breece Hall gets the benefit (at the moment) of an OL I think can make a huge leap while the Jets look to manage Wilson to being a franchise QB eventually instead of hoping for a Herbert like explosion in Year 2.

Rhamondre Stevenson feels like a guy who'll rise about 3 rounds over the next 3 weeks.  Just too much buzz about him right now.  But I do think this is happening.

Chase Edmunds might look like he's in a crowded backfield, but his signing bonus was $3M more than Mostert/Michel combined and their first signing in FA.  And his 900 scrimmage yards in 11 games seems like it's being overlooked.

Allen Robinson is chomping at the bit.  The QB's he's had to carve a career from have been 🤮.  And I can't see Kupp doing what he did in 2021 again...Woods/OBJ went for 72/861/9

Deandre Hopkins is being discounted too heavily.


I'm on all five sans Edmonds whom I'm not sure can handle volume.

 
For this year guys in my mind that seem like I would want to target are the following:

  • Allen Robinson
  • Zeke Elliott
  • Devante Parker
  • Irv Smith
  • Adam Thielen  
  • AJ Dillon
  • Eli Mitchell
  • Robert Woods
With the 12th pick...

Allen Robinson - His ADP has been rising slowly, but you can still get him at the 5/6 turn sometimes.  He's not worthy of the 3/4 turn, and always gone by the 7/8 turn
Ezekiel Elliott - He seems to be in a dead zone for anyone with the 12th pick.  Way too early for 12/13, and always missed at 36/37
DeVante Parker - I haven't really delved into him for this year, but ADP says he is a reach at the 11/12 turn, and decent value at the end of the 13th
Irv Smith - I wouldn't want him as my weekly starter in a redraft, but I love him for best ball types.  ADP says 11/12 turn
Adam Thielen - Like Zeke, he's in a dead zone for anyone with the 12th pick.  Either reach for him at the end of the 5th, or miss him altogether
AJ Dillon - I have seen him fall a few times to the 5/6 turn, but those are few and far between
Eli Mitchell - See Dillon above
Robert Woods - I'll scoop him up all day at the 9/10 turn, but he's a reach before that

I do like drafting from the turns, but just know, some players you are just not going to end up with, unless you have go-go-gadget arms.

 
If he finishes as a high WR2/Low WR 1 then you are overpaying since Lamb is going off as the WR6 off the board.


 You are correct.  But as I alluded to in my first post, I usually opt for later draft slots. (In our bigger leagues, we use a drawing, then pick whatever spot you want from whatever is left........if you are first off the board, then you get your pick of any spot)

If you are in the late spots, and you don't get CeeDee Lamb at or around the turn, you won't be owning him anywhere..... at least in my "must start 3WR"  leagues. 

So, I guess he one of my "must haves".

  :football:

 
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As an AJ Dillon owner (also javonte in that league so hope y’all don’t curse them) in dynasty I don’t love saying it but Aaron Jones in PPR at the rb13 is a lock imo. 
i think they’ll both have good seasons. Jones playing ekeler/kamara while Dillon gets a ton of carries. 

late round, especially now - I’m still taking Russell gage where I can get him almost free. 
If reports continue to say good things about Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, Gage's ADP is going to steadily drop until fantasy draft day

 
If reports continue to say good things about Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, Gage's ADP is going to steadily drop until fantasy draft day
 In a dynasty league I just traded for Gage a few weeks ago yay.........I did so because I had Godwin..............I also own Julio.................

 
You already have most of the houses. Might as well go for the monopoly and buy the Brady Hotel.
I actually already have Brady too.  I also have Burrow as well so it be tough to know what QB to start each week.  I couldn't get it right in the playoffs last year I played Brady both games and Burrow crushed but luckily I still won the ship anyway otherwise that been crushing.

 
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Ja’marr Chase.

I joined a league this week because Chase was in the two team dispersal draft and I wanted another shot at him.  Fortunately the other guy chose the 1.02 and 2.01 instead of the 1.01, so I got another share of Chase.

 
One of the top 5 WRs. Not as specific, I realize, but that’s my redraft answer. 

I feel like in there are 5 locked and loaded elite WR, then a big drop-off to a large group of virtually interchangeable assets at the position.  

in whichever order you prefer,

Kupp, Adams, Jefferson, Chase, Diggs. 

Some of the next tier has players with more upside than others, of course, but in redraft I absolutely want an elite WR with my 1st pick, then RB-RB, then I’ll start playing it by ear.

Ordinarily I don’t love picks 4-5 but this year I’m feeling pretty good if I’m drafting an elite WR there & getting good value on RBs in the 2nd & 3rd. Swift, Barkley, Lenny all seem to be hanging out there for that 2.07-2.08 spot, and that’s a really nice way to start a draft this year. 

if i wind up 9-12, and none of those 5 are on the board, I’m probably taking a RB with my 1st pick and making Lamb & Evans my priorities in the 2nd. It’s less ideal, but it could also work well. 
 

 
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 if i wind up 8-12, I’m probably taking a RB with my 1st pick and making Lamb & Evans my priorities in the 2nd. It’s less ideal, but it could also work well. 
 
I am a bit confused by this paragraph compared to the rest of your post.  You said you want one the top 5 WR's.  Why would you not take one if you are in the 8-12 spot?  I am sure at least one will still be on the board for you.  

 
I am a bit confused by this paragraph compared to the rest of your post.  You said you want one the top 5 WR's.  Why would you not take one if you are in the 8-12 spot?  I am sure at least one will still be on the board for you.  
I’m thinking if one of those 5 aren’t there. In my league it’s very likely that all 5 will be gone by 1.10, but yes you’re correct that 1.08-1.09 it is possible one will still be there. Again; less likely knowing my league-mates, but possible. I’ll edit my post. 

Sorry if that was unclear. 

 
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I’m thinking if one of those 5 aren’t there. In my league it’s very likely that all 5 will be gone by 1.10, but yes you’re correct that 1.08 it is possible one will still be there. I’ll edit my post. 

Sorry if that was unclear. 
Yeah. The way I read the post is that you would take the WR with an early draft pick but later you wouldn't.   I still would be surprised if ALL those 5 WR's go before the top 7 or 8 RB's so I think you should be fine.

 
This is tough because draft slot determines a lot of what is available, especially early on. It’s also tough to say because there are such wide variances in ADP right now. More than I can ever remember as Best Ball sharps have one ADP and then the redraft crowd seems to have their own ADP. When I mock for redraft, Juju is a player I find myself taking over and over. WR34 is just too nice of a value for the likely KC WR1. 

 
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Yeah. The way I read the post is that you would take the WR with an early draft pick but later you wouldn't.   I still would be surprised if ALL those 5 WR's go before the top 7 or 8 RB's so I think you should be fine.
Hard to say. My league tends to go ham on the elite WR in the 1st round. So by 1.09 those 5 are very likely all off the board, thus creating value at RB. Evans/Lamb aren’t sure-thing elite, but both have that upside, IMO, and make for excellent wrap-around picks. 

 
I think its Hollywood Brown for me. I think the move to Arizona, and the switch to Kyler Murray are both huge upgrades for Brown, and he was quietly a top-10 WR last year until Lamar Jackson got hurt.

I always had this theory, that Hollywood and Andrews weren't all that different than Tyreek and Kelce, they were just in a much less pass heavy offense. Last year that changed, and I think Andrews proved he was Kelce's level, but Hollywood proved he wasn't THAT far off either. 

I've got Hollywood as WR15, and probably somewhere in the WR5-10 range the 1st 6 weeks. I also think Arizona is a strong candidate to have the best offense in the NFL, especially with how bad their defense looks. 

 
travdogg said:
I think its Hollywood Brown for me. I think the move to Arizona, and the switch to Kyler Murray are both huge upgrades for Brown, and he was quietly a top-10 WR last year until Lamar Jackson got hurt.

I always had this theory, that Hollywood and Andrews weren't all that different than Tyreek and Kelce, they were just in a much less pass heavy offense. Last year that changed, and I think Andrews proved he was Kelce's level, but Hollywood proved he wasn't THAT far off either. 

I've got Hollywood as WR15, and probably somewhere in the WR5-10 range the 1st 6 weeks. I also think Arizona is a strong candidate to have the best offense in the NFL, especially with how bad their defense looks. 
Usually I disagree with your assessments, but hope you nailed this one.

 
Agree with those saying Cooks. 
 

Later in drafts, I am always spending a pick on Marvin Jones. The situation was so, so bad last year which derailed the passing game. I like Kirk, but we know the track record of FA WRs changing teams is horrible. The next most likely benefit from what has to be a huge jump in the passing game is Jones. MJJ has been top 25 in targets the last 2 years in a row and he costs basically nothing to find out if he can be the beneficiary of the Lawrence rise. 

 
I had been taking a lot of Evans in 2nd as well Juju in 5th. Will see if that continues for Evans with recent news/moves. 
 

Later in drafts (Rds 13-15) I seem to frequently be scooping up Palmer and/or Jefferson who are in high scoring offenses and I think may be able to be flex plays or at least great bye week guys. With upside ability/opportunity to shoot up to WR2. (edit- will have to keep an eye on news about Jefferson’s knee)
 

And since I’ve been fading early RBs a lot (zero or anchor) I find myself always grabbing Darrell Henderson in like the 12th who will probably get more work in that backfield than the draft position represents. It probably should worry me more when sometimes he is my RB3 but for now it hasn’t. 

 
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This guy has an ADP of 153 on FBG and 157 on FantasyPros
He is currently atop the depth chart on his team with a healthy 4.4 YPC
His main competition is a rookie and a 32-year old with a high of 147 touches
He is 26 years old with back-to-back RB2 finishes in 2018/2019

Why not use a 13th round pick on Marlon Mack?  By the time the season begins, he will be 2 years removed from the Achilles, and if he takes a backseat to Pierce or Burkhead, just toss him into the waiver wire pool.  Currently, he is a starting RB for free.
 

 
The guy I want this year is Dalton Schultz.  With a late 5th early 6th round price tag, I can get 80-90 catches and 6-8 TDs.  Each TE ranked higher (where you will have to spend a 4th or earlier pick on) has question marks for me

Kelce (late 1st early 2nd) - 33 years old, KC offense will be different without Tyreek.  Teams can double him more this year.

Andrews (late 2nd) - coming off of a career year, did most of his damage when Lamar was out, and no Hollywood Brown to stretch out the defenses.  Like Kelce, teams can double him more.

Pitts (3rd) - Great talent, but Mariota sucks and ATL won't score that much.  3rd rounder way too rich given the RBs and WRs that are on the board.

Waller (4th) - Adams kills his upside.

Kittle (4th) - Lots of competition for targets, run first offense, and an inexperienced QB in Lance.

So Schultz is incredible value in the late 5th early 6th. (I play in some 10 team leagues so Schultz is a late 7th early 8th round pick)  If I miss out on Schultz, I will wait for Ertz or Goedert and try to back him up with Irv Smith or Hunter Henry.

 
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The guy I want this year is Dalton Schultz.  With a late 5th early 6th round price tag, I can get 80-90 catches and 6-8 TDs.  Each TE ranked higher (where you will have to spend a 4th or earlier pick on) has question marks for me
I see that value being real!  Cooper gone, Gallup on PUP/ recovering, Lamb will get lots of double coverage.  Schultz should benefit the most.  

 
I'm starting to really like Taysom Hill as a late flyer. Worst case you drop him three weeks in, best case he's starting for an injured Winston at some point in the year from your te spot.
 
I'm starting to really like Taysom Hill as a late flyer. Worst case you drop him three weeks in, best case he's starting for an injured Winston at some point in the year from your te spot.

Until MFL reclassifies him and you're hosed. Would be a great pick in the subscriber contest if your theory pans out.
 

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