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You are probably in the majority. That is why I like these players at ADP.
The problem with Penny is you then have to grab Walker the next round, unless you envision a season where Penny finally stays healthy. Obviously it’s not impossible that he does, but sometimes you can’t ignore the track record.
I really like the Brandin Cooks call. Every year in my keeper league (10 team 10 player keeper) he gets dropped. Every year I draft him as my WR 5. I would like that trend to continue this year.
TheWinz, good to see another familiar face still posting here after all these years.
I have several must haves this year, and here are a few with some brief reasoning.
Note, pretty much all my must-haves over the years are guys you can get later in drafts, with fairly strong upside. I virtually NEVER have a top 5-ish guy as a must have since they are drafted so highly anyway. I'm trying to steal upside and value later in drafts.
CeeDee Lamb - As I just pointed out in the Lamb thread, I think hes almost a dead lock for high end WR2/Low end WR1 production, with a slight emphasis towards early season production. i.e. no Gallup.
Michael Pittman - I usually play in 3 WR leagues, and in drafts you can sometimes get Pittman as an WR3/late WR2. With Matt Ryan there now, I think he should have a pretty solid floor.
Brandin Cooks - Same as Pittman, though you can get him even later. Lack of defense, a suspect run game and very little competition for targets.....all green lights. Check out the depth chart after Cooks. Seriously?This guy have produced everywhere he has played....when healthy. He finished as WR21 or thereabouts last year, depending on format and you can get him for pennies on the dollar in drafts.
Rashaad Penny - Going late as well, you may possibly get low end RB1 value on the cheap. Though injury concerns are there, so if I get him I might try and handcuff him with Walker. Plus, Carson is now gone.
Ezekiel Elliot - I won't be owning Elliot and Lamb in the same leagues, but I'm usually in many so I can acquire both pieces from a good offense and spread them out across multiple leagues. The Cowboys, for whatever reason seem to be dedicated to Elliot, and he was playing injured all last season. He is another prime handcuff suspect too. If I own Elliot, I will be damn sure to reach for Pollard.
Are you concerned about the offensive line for the Raiders? I think Adams is a very safe pick but I am concerned about any ceiling potential especially with Renfro and Waller there.
Delanie Walker did pretty well with Mariota as his QB. I think he was a top 6 TE those years. I think Pitts is destined to be the TE 1 for years to come at some point. It sounds like they are going to try to get him lined up more with LB's this year as opposed to playing against elite corners on the outside. I think the gamble on Pitts elite ability is worth the risk.
Oh I absolutely have JJ, Kupp & Chase above Adams and Diggs.
I'm picking at 9 today in my first online championship draft. My choices will be either Diggs, Cooks, or Adams. I'm toying with the idea of taking Swift because I think he's gonna be huge this year but he also sometimes falls to my pick in the second round. I've thought Adams was a bit too high in ADP but I am coming around on him. There is something strange going on with Waller. He has hammy issues, contract issues etc. I was concerned about the QB downgrade but Carr is still pretty darn good and you know he will try to feed his boy.
I feel like the two biggest ADP-driving false narratives this off-season have been Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Team changes tend to scare FF managers more than sometimes warranted. IMO Adams is a virtual lock for ~85% of his GB production, and of course he's capable of more. I expect a ton of shootouts in that division, and Adams should be one of the primary beneficiaries.
The bottom line is Adams is a complete stud. Kamara does seem to fall to my second pick. He scares me. I'm deciding between him, A Jones, and Kelce. I don't think Barkley will be there. Swift might but it's a long shot. If I do get the WR in the first and RB in the second I have a chance at Andrews or Pitts in the third which I love.
Possible but also Diggs kind of got unlucky last year. The peripheral stats indicate he should have had a better a year than he did. He was 2nd in air yards, 7th in deep targets, 2nd in RZ targets, 2nd in unrealized air yards. Even if his target share dips a bit, he could make up for it by getting a little more luck on the deep shots and RZ looks. That said, I don't think he is going to be able to repeat his 2021 numbers.
Adams > Diggs
I could be wrong but it looks like the AFC West is going to be a Wild Wild West when these 4 teams play each other, having one of the top 3-4 WRs for targets on these teams will pay dividends and I think you have 1 of them.
Agreed.
He’s been top 4 in TE scoring the last 2 years.
Hasn’t he been DTD much of the preseason? Where’s that word coming from and who’s trying to cover him on the sidelines?
If I'm being honest, part of the reason I'm rooting for George Pickens is because I was a huge Carl Pickens fan.
I heard this too. I think when I heard it I was at the tattoo parlor, where Jalen Hurts was getting AJ Brown's face tattooed on his chest.
As a Seahawks fan I really don't want a share of any of these guys... The top rusher on that team is likely to be Travis Homer or DJ Dallas...
What is late? He seems to be going around QB10 (and earlier) in current drafts I have seen
I'm with you on Lance. Though, in standard leagues you really need to pull the trigger before the 8th round so not sure what you mean by "late."
Matt Stafford threw 40 TDs, was like QB11 and didn't win anyone anything in fantasy.
I hope he shines. I went RB-RB to start at the back end of my draft and got Sutton and M. Williams at the 3-4 turn to be my WR1a and WR1b
Like HSG, and as you are leaning, I'd have to take Adams at the 9 assuming he is still there.
That's a bold take and I like it!
I too want Pickens. Hoping my league mates havent caught up yet and I can snag him at 1.9 in a rookie draft.
