Brady has had between 474 and 601 pass attempts per year. The 474 was in Corey Dillon's big year in 2004. The 601 was the year that they couldn't stop the run in 2002. I think their defense is good enough that 600 is out of the question. I don't think they're going to hammer Maroney, Morris and Faulk so much that we'll see 474, either. Belichick likes to step on his opponent's throats, not blindly run the clock down, unless he's up by 15+ in the second half. I think he'll be in the mid-high range for pass attempts, so I'll call it 550 pass attempts.
Brady's completion percentage has been between 60.2 and 63.9. His best years were 2001, when he was throwing to Troy Brown a lot, and 2005, when Branch and Givens both had their best seasons. This will be the best set of receivers he has ever had. I'd say he should have at least a 63% completion percentage, and it may even be higher.
550 pass attempts x 63% is about 350 completions. Brady had 334 completions in 2005, and 373 in 2002, compared with 288, 319 and 317 in his three other full years. This seems like a little higher, but reasonable estimate for him this year.
Over the last five years, here's how the receptions have split out:
2001
WR Total Receptions 190
WR1 101
WR2 51
WR3 14
TE 19
RB 93
BRADY 264 (40 completions by other passers)
2002
WR Total Receptions 222
WR1 97
WR2 61
WR3 43
TE 63
RB 93
BRADY 373 (5 completions by other passers)
2003
WR Total Receptions 178
WR1 57
WR2 40
WR3 34
TE 66
RB 88
BRADY 317 (5 completions by other passers)
2004
WR Total Receptions 162
WR1 56
WR2 44
WR3 35
TE 65
RB 70
BRADY 293 (4 completions by other passers)
2005
WR Total Receptions 211
WR1 78
WR2 59
WR3 39
TE 53
RB 84
BRADY 334 (14 completions by other passers)
2006
WR Total Receptions 156
WR1 61
WR2 43* (*Ben Watson had 49 receptions. Also, the #2 receiver changed throughout the year.)
WR3 25*
TE 81
RB 89
BRADY 319 (7 completions by other passers)
A couple things to put these numbers in perspective:
In 2001 and 2002, Troy Brown was the best receiver on the team. He had 198 receptions in those two seasons. So it is possible for the #1 receiver to have 100 catches.
In 2005, Branch was the best receiver on the team. He had 78 receptions. When Brady has a top receiver, it is possible for him to get ~80 receptions.
The #1 receiver on the team has never had less than 56 receptions.
The #1 recever on the team averages 75 receptions over the course of Brady's career.
The #2 receiver on the team has never had more than 61 receptions.
The #2 receiver on the team averages 50 receptions over the course of Brady's career.
The #3 receiver on the team has never had more than 43 receptions.
The #3 receiver on the team averages 32 receptions over the course of Brady's career.
The tight ends have had between 53 and 65 receptions every year but 2001, when they only had 19 receptions, and last year, when they had an uncharacteristically high 81.
The tight end corps has averaged 63 receptions per year. 2001's low water mark is largely because they had no talent at the position. They drafted Daniel Graham in the first round in 2002 and added Fauria and Cleeland. 2006's high water mark is largely because Watson was the #2 receiver on the team with 49 receptions, compared with the #2 WR who had 43.
The running backs have pretty steadily had between 84 and 93 receptions. The only outlier year, with 70, was the year Corey Dillon arrived. He ran more, and caught less.
So let's take this information and use it to project the Pats.
We'll assume the TEs will no longer be considered the top receiving option. The Patriots now have legitimate WR threats. We'll also assume the running backs continue to contribute in the passing game, but maybe a little lower than normal. And last but not least, we'll assume that Moss is a little closer to a Troy Brown/Deion Branch skill level than Reche Caldwell.
2007
WR Total Receptions 200
Moss 82
Welker 56
Stallworth 52
WR4-6 28
TE 50
RB 84
BRADY 350
Rumors of Moss' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even in Oakland, he averaged over 15 yards per catch, and a TD/9 receptions. It's his receptions that dropped down. If you assume those same numbers from him in New England, you could predict him for:
Moss 82 receptions, 1200 yards, 9 TDs
That seems like a reasonable estimate to me. And that would make him a top 10 WR.
Note that I'm not making any wild predictions about Moss, or the New England offense here. I'm assuming they stay around historical levels, that Moss continues to produce near his average YPC in Oakland, and that he fills the #1 receiver role for New England. All of those seem like reasonable assumptions to me.
Now let's assess his risk/reward. Could he do better than this? Sort of. I don't think it's likely that he'll get 100 receptions. But he could catch more TDs, since he's probably the best red zone receiver on the team. Could he do worse than this? Definitely. It's remotely possible that he won't be the WR1, or that he'll miss time (he has only missed eight games in his career, but they've all been in the last three years). Could he get benched or cut? Yes. Belichick will keep him on a short leash.
Overall, I'd put him at the bottom of the top ten, or maybe just outside it, because of the risk. I think there's a better chance that he busts than that he's the guy that carries your team to the championship, but I think he's a better WR option than almost anyone outside the top ten receivers. I think he deserves consideration somewhere between picks 30 and 50. Right now his ADP is on the low end of that range at 44th overall.
The big IF - really BIG - is Can Stallworth stay healthy? If so, I also believe he will be more productive than Moss.
