The player I think makes the leap to top 10 in 2010 (1 Viewer)

[shader]

Donald Brown.

Why? Because I saw 2 or 3 runs last year that blew away anything Addai has to offer.

That's it, really. I don't have any expert analysis, or off-season knowledge. I just know that I liked what I saw and I think he will supplant Addai and give Peyton a weapon he hasn't had since Edgerrin James.

Now that he's had a year to learn the Indy scheme, and hopefully become a better blocker, I think he'll make a Ray Rice-like explosion and reward owners who take the chance on him.

There's usually 1 or 2 RB's every off-season that I peg as ready to make the leap, and DB is one this year.

 

[mikel2014]

I'd be interested in seeing those runs if you're able to find them. I can't make up my mind about Brown yet. He was high on my list coming out of college, but didn't impress me last season in the little time he saw. The situation certainly has potential for him to make the leap into starter worthy.

 

[Banger]

I don't see him making that leap this year unless Addai gets injured. Next year, Addai is a FA and I could definitely see it but Brown will be priced much higher as well.

 

[VaTerp]

I'd be interested in seeing those runs if you're able to find them. I can't make up my mind about Brown yet. He was high on my list coming out of college, but didn't impress me last season in the little time he saw. The situation certainly has potential for him to make the leap into starter worthy.

My thoughts exactly. The situation does have potential but the Colts have to run the ball better than they have the last 2 years. How much of that is Addai and how much is the O-line I don't know. But even without a strong ground attack, the RB in the league's most consistent offense always has intrigue from a FF perspective.

 

[domvin]

Not when they pass 68% of the time.

I think when Addai leaves, this is absolutely realistic

 

[Go DC Yourself]

Indy is set to pony up major bucks to its aging franchise QB. Unless Brown can protect that asset, he won't see the field for significant snaps. So don't watch his running during preseason, watch his blocking.

 

[Sylira21]

So don't watch his running during preseason, watch his blocking.

Exactly right.

 

[FavreCo]

The biggest thing stopping Brown from being a top 10 back is stat whore Manning.

 

[Ray_T]

I don't see him making that leap this year unless Addai gets injured. Next year, Addai is a FA and I could definitely see it but Brown will be priced much higher as well.

I disagree.I figure about halfway through the season they will find an excuse to give Brown a shot for a game or two. They will need to know if he can get it done so they can decide if they want to resign Addai.if they think Brown can get it done, he may take over the starting role by the end of the year and Addai will be an afterthought when he becomes a free agent.

 

[flyonthewall]

This is the perfect situation for owners/potential owners of both Addai and Brown, especially if you are in some sort of keeper league. Addai is playing for a big FA contract next year and Brown will be taking over for Addai next season. So you can reap the benefit of Addai's hard play this year and keep Brown for next season when he takes over in Indy!

 

[Grahamburn]

Brown would have to take over for Addai pretty early in the season to be top 10.

I can see this situation as very similar to Parker/Mendenhall in Pittsburgh last year. An injury plagued rookie season for the first round pick playing behind the aging, somewhat productive, unimpressive veteran. Parker got dinged and Mendenhall took off.

As it's been said before, Brown will have to be trusted by the Colts' coaching staff and Peyton Manning to effectively block on passing plays or he will not see the field. If he improves the blocking and Addai gets nicked up I could see a very productive season for Brown.

I disagree with the poster that said the Colts will try to "see what they have with Brown" so they can make a decision after the season on Addai. Indianapolis is built to win Super Bowls right now. If Addai is healthy he'll be the guy getting the majority of the RB snaps. He's shown he can protect Peyton, be a nice outlet receiver, and be productive enough in the running game to help this offensive juggernaut score points.

Without an injury to Addai I don't see Brown being fantasy relevant.

 

[zamboni]

Addai is playing for a big FA contract next year and Brown will be taking over for Addai next season.

I wouldn't necessarily bank on that.I don't think Addai will get a big contract next year. The league likely knows that, while he is a decent back, he is largely a product of the great system in Indy. Outside of scoring a bunch of TDs, his YPC has fallen pretty sharply since his promising rookie year. And before the start of 2011, he will be 28 - not exactly old, but not exactly young blood any more.As for Brown, the door is indeed open for him, but if he doesn't really impress, he could face the same fate that Addai did - having another high round pick/FA being added to an RBBC stable.

 

[fatkid]

Last year the colts only rushed the ball 330 times. Since then they have had turmoil on the Offensive line, with no gaurentee that any of the players brought in are any better than the ones they have.

To me, the Colts lead back is capped at Addai's season last year. 220 Carries, 840 Yds, 10 TDs There is no upside here for a top 10 player. Brown can be a nice surprise, but I just don't think the opportunities are there for top 10.

 

[Crippler]

Beanie for me. Loved how he looked at the end of the season running the ball as he took over. Love the addition of Faneca to help like he did for the Jets. Talk of more run over pass. Hightower is average talent at best. '

He is my prime guy to move up this year ala Ray Rice last year.

Brown is not even going to worthy of starting unless Addai goes down. Big Joe does too many of the little things well and is Peyton's guy and we all know about what Manning does for his guys. He is very loyal and why there is a chance Addai comes back next year when there is no market for him

 

[Sabertooth]

How about Harvin is/when Favre returns? He's got an amazing skill set and is only going to get better.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Not stone cold locks, but if things fall their way...

QB

Kolb. Offense is pass heavy, loaded w/ options at WR1 & WR2, a top 10 TE and a back that can catch as well.

(long shot) Stafford. By improving the D, adding Best, Burleson & Scheffler, the parts are in place for a spike up the rankings.

RB

S Green. Run, run and run some more. I'm not buying any chatter about the Jets calling more passes, ball control is the strength of the team.

(long shot) F Jones. Team is built to play in the SB, needs to stay healthy and have the opportunity.

WR

Harvin. He'll make it the DeSean Jackson way, taking a bunch of screens/slants the distance.

(long shot) Crabtree. Might be impacted by SF getting back to the run or Alex Smith's suckness, but he's not long from settling in the top 10 on a annual basis.

TE

J Gresham. Not too far behind the TE 10-13. Solid supporting cast on O, will face single coverage and will be a mismatch for most LB/S.

(long shot) H Miller. Steelers might want to run the ball, but that might be tougher than they think. Dump offs to Miller should be frequent before and after Roethlisbereger's time away.

 

[shader]

I like Beanie too. But Beanie is much tougher to get than Brown.

Addai isn't very good. He's just not. He's a product of a great system for running backs. The fact that he only averages the YPC that he does is testament to the fact that he sucks.

If Brown has learned the system (specifically, how to block), he will supplant Addai quickly and make some bigtime noise.

And I'm glad to see that few of you believe me. If everyone thought he would get it done this year, he would be going much earlier in drafts than he currently is.

 

[fightingillini]

I don't see him making that leap this year unless Addai gets injured. Next year, Addai is a FA and I could definitely see it but Brown will be priced much higher as well.

Addai did what he needed to do last year to keep his spot. No reason to believe it will significantly change. I see Addai getting 55-60% of the carries and most of the receptions. Brown has the skills, but only if Addai gets hurt will he even sniff the top 10.

 

[_lurker_]

Addai is playing for a big FA contract next year and Brown will be taking over for Addai next season.

I wouldn't necessarily bank on that.I don't think Addai will get a big contract next year. The league likely knows that, while he is a decent back, he is largely a product of the great system in Indy. Outside of scoring a bunch of TDs, his YPC has fallen pretty sharply since his promising rookie year. stable.

so if Addai doesn't get a big contract, why wouldn't IND just re-sign him on the cheap and keep it a RBBC?

 

[Banger]

I don't see him making that leap this year unless Addai gets injured. Next year, Addai is a FA and I could definitely see it but Brown will be priced much higher as well.

I disagree.I figure about halfway through the season they will find an excuse to give Brown a shot for a game or two. They will need to know if he can get it done so they can decide if they want to resign Addai.if they think Brown can get it done, he may take over the starting role by the end of the year and Addai will be an afterthought when he becomes a free agent.

ya I don't disagree with that at all but the premise of this thread is that he'll leap into the top 10. I don't doubt that he may get a shot, may take over at some point but with Addai in the picture I don't see him taking over early enough and having a bite enough bite to get him in the top 10.

 

[Grahamburn]

Not stone cold locks, but if things fall their way...

QB

Kolb. Offense is pass heavy, loaded w/ options at WR1 & WR2, a top 10 TE and a back that can catch as well.

(long shot) Stafford. By improving the D, adding Best, Burleson & Scheffler, the parts are in place for a spike up the rankings.

RB

S Green. Run, run and run some more. I'm not buying any chatter about the Jets calling more passes, ball control is the strength of the team.

(long shot) F Jones. Team is built to play in the SB, needs to stay healthy and have the opportunity.

WR

Harvin. He'll make it the DeSean Jackson way, taking a bunch of screens/slants the distance.

(long shot) Crabtree. Might be impacted by SF getting back to the run or Alex Smith's suckness, but he's not long from settling in the top 10 on a annual basis.

TE

J Gresham. Not too far behind the TE 10-13. Solid supporting cast on O, will face single coverage and will be a mismatch for most LB/S.

(long shot) H Miller. Steelers might want to run the ball, but that might be tougher than they think. Dump offs to Miller should be frequent before and after Roethlisbereger's time away.

It shouldn't be too much of a long shot. Heath Miller has been top 10 in 2 out of the last 3 seasons. He should also see an increase in targets this season with Santonio Holmes out of the picture.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Addai isn't very good. He's just not. He's a product of a great system for running backs. The fact that he only averages the YPC that he does is testament to the fact that he sucks.

Addai: 3.8 ypcBrown: 3.6 ypcAddai isn't an elite talent but he does everything well. The Colts o-line struggled big time in run blocking last year and Addai isn't the type of back that can make things happen on his own. He's a smart compact runner with good vision and average speed and power. Borwn looks like he may be a little more dynamic but his ypc was pretty bad last year as well.Like others have said Addai has the trust of Manning right now as he's a very good blocker and has good hands - so Brown must gain Manning's trust if he's going to see the filed more.I do like the call on Brown, but I don't think it's as simple as "Addai sucks".

 

[Nero]

Pierre Thomas - he has proven he is the best the Saints have to offer in every situation.

 

[hook014]

Beanie is a good call and I would love to get him at his ADP.

Also think I could get Forte cheap this year and he can crack the top ten even w/ Chester there. Chester is no bellcow and that offense is gonna score a whole lot more points than last year. I'm getting a seat on that train.

 

[southeastjerome]

Beanie is a good call and I would love to get him at his ADP.Also think I could get Forte cheap this year and he can crack the top ten even w/ Chester there. Chester is no bellcow and that offense is gonna score a whole lot more points than last year. I'm getting a seat on that train.

I agree with you on Forte. I see tons of potential there. I think he's a good fit for a Martz offense and could put up big #s.

 

[Ultima Thule]

Without an injury to Addai I don't see Brown being fantasy relevant.

Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner. He has shown virtually nothing yet and has helped to keep Addai fantasy relevant if anything. Don't hold your breathe on Brown.

 

[Banger]

I think F. Jones is the guy. Even with Barber in the picture, vulturing TDs, I think grabs hold of the offense this year. They are going to be a sick, sick offense.

 

[VaTerp]

Pierre Thomas - he has proven he is the best the Saints have to offer in every situation.

If given the touches and if he stays healthy I think PT would be a lock for top 5 numbers.Those are big ifs though. He's been banged up a little but injuries are hard to predict and affect just about every RB. The big problem I see is that Payton seems insistent on limiting his touches with a 3rd RB in addition to Bush. Last year it was Bell and this year its supposedly Hamilton.But Thomas is a good bet and I struggle not to rank him higher in my RB rankings. I just like everything I have seen from him the last 2 years and he without question the most productive RB on one of the league's most explosive offensives.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think F. Jones is the guy. Even with Barber in the picture, vulturing TDs, I think grabs hold of the offense this year. They are going to be a sick, sick offense.

I keep seeing people saying this about Felix. I think he's a nice player too. Nobody is going to deny his talent, but he's never been a big touch guy at any level. When he does get multiple touches he seems to get nicked up.He apparently bulked up his upper body, but it's his lower body that has been consistently injured. I expect Dallas to be an excellent offense as well, but there a TON of mouths to feed on that side of the ball, and there are two other players at Jones' position that are quality RBs as well. Austin, Bryant, Williams, Barber, Choice, Witten... With all of those guys siphoning touches and fantasy points from Jones I don't think he'll be able to crack the top ten.

 

[Chaka]

Beanie for me. Loved how he looked at the end of the season running the ball as he took over. Love the addition of Faneca to help like he did for the Jets. Talk of more run over pass. Hightower is average talent at best. '

He is my prime guy to move up this year ala Ray Rice last year.

Brown is not even going to worthy of starting unless Addai goes down. Big Joe does too many of the little things well and is Peyton's guy and we all know about what Manning does for his guys. He is very loyal and why there is a chance Addai comes back next year when there is no market for him

Big Joe? He is? We do?What does Manning do for his guys except take max contracts limiting the teams ability to sign better players (his guys or not)?

 

[TheFanatic]

I've seen 2-3 incredible runs by Reggie Bush too. Doesn't make him top 10. Need more of a sample than that...

 

[Chaka]

I think F. Jones is the guy. Even with Barber in the picture, vulturing TDs, I think grabs hold of the offense this year. They are going to be a sick, sick offense.

I keep seeing people saying this about Felix. I think he's a nice player too. Nobody is going to deny his talent, but he's never been a big touch guy at any level. When he does get multiple touches he seems to get nicked up.He apparently bulked up his upper body, but it's his lower body that has been consistently injured.

I expect Dallas to be an excellent offense as well, but there a TON of mouths to feed on that side of the ball, and there are two other players at Jones' position that are quality RBs as well.

Austin, Bryant, Williams, Barber, Choice, Witten... With all of those guys siphoning touches and fantasy points from Jones I don't think he'll be able to crack the top ten.

Williams has simply not been good for years and there is no reason to think he is going to be anything more than a role player. Choice won't steal touches unless Felix or Barber get hurt.As you said there are too many balls to go around and the priorities will be (in no particular order) Austin, Witten, Jones, Barber and maybe (in the second half of the season) Bryant. Barring injury Choice & Williams get table scraps after those guys.

 

[Chaka]

The biggest thing stopping Brown from being a top 10 back is stat whore Manning.

Says the guy with the Brett Favre username & avatar.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think F. Jones is the guy. Even with Barber in the picture, vulturing TDs, I think grabs hold of the offense this year. They are going to be a sick, sick offense.

I keep seeing people saying this about Felix. I think he's a nice player too. Nobody is going to deny his talent, but he's never been a big touch guy at any level. When he does get multiple touches he seems to get nicked up.He apparently bulked up his upper body, but it's his lower body that has been consistently injured.

I expect Dallas to be an excellent offense as well, but there a TON of mouths to feed on that side of the ball, and there are two other players at Jones' position that are quality RBs as well.

Austin, Bryant, Williams, Barber, Choice, Witten... With all of those guys siphoning touches and fantasy points from Jones I don't think he'll be able to crack the top ten.

Williams has simply not been good for years and there is no reason to think he is going to be anything more than a role player. Choice won't steal touches unless Felix or Barber get hurt.As you said there are too many balls to go around and the priorities will be (in no particular order) Austin, Witten, Jones, Barber and maybe (in the second half of the season) Bryant. Barring injury Choice & Williams get table scraps after those guys.

Williams may not be any good, but that doesn't mean he won't see targets, especially near the end zone.Felix/Barber getting dinged up seems pretty likely to me. Jones already reportedly has swelling in his knee. Barber quietly had a very productive 2009 with 1,153 yards and 7 TDs on a torn quad, which pretty much dwarfs what Jones managed. I don't think Marion just goes away.

Anyway, there aren't enough footballs for Felix to be top 10. Historically, I wonder what the fewest number of touches for a RB finishing in the top 10 was? Felix will probably have to break that record.

---------------------------------------

Back to Donald Brown.

 

[Defending Champs]

The biggest thing stopping Brown from being a top 10 back is stat whore Manning.

Says the guy with the Brett Favre username & avatar.