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'The Profit' by Mike Brown (1 Viewer)

Dexter Manley

Footballguy
Just noticed this article in the subscriber material for the first time. Is this the first year he's been making these picks? Just curious.

How does he go about handicapping games? Does anyone know? I'm not looking to praise or bash, I would just like some more information WRT to the guy, as I've never heard of him before (no offense).

Here is his record to date.

SEASON TOTALS

OVERALL: 18-12-1 (60%)

BEST BETS: 4-3-1 (57%)

PICK OF WEEK: 1-1 (50%)

 
Not sure. I have heard of him on the site before though. And several of us Footballguys have a better record so far this season in our yahoo league.

 
Going 18-12-1 = making money right? :lol:
Yes, but a monkey could go 18-12-1 or better the first 2 weeks of the season. I would just like some more info on the guy. He hardly gives any analysis on his picks.
you could send him an email with your questions. I'm sure he'd respond. brown@footballguys.com.and you can look through the archives. he's been writing the article for the past couple years I believe.
 
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Going 18-12-1 = making money right? :thumbup:
Yes, but a monkey could go 18-12-1 or better the first 2 weeks of the season. I would just like some more info on the guy. He hardly gives any analysis on his picks.
I love how you say you're not here to bash, yet you start a thread asking for his qualifications. And in your first reply, you compare him to a monkey.At least be up-front about what you are saying.
 
Going 18-12-1 = making money right? :confused:
Yes, but a monkey could go 18-12-1 or better the first 2 weeks of the season. I would just like some more info on the guy. He hardly gives any analysis on his picks.
you could send him an email with your questions. I'm sure he'd respond. brown@footballguys.com.and you can look through the archives. he's been writing the article for the past couple years I believe.
Uhh, 18-12 is pretty damn good. And if monkeys could do that, they wouldn't have those big casinos in Vegas. I've never known a bookie to lose money in the long run.
 
He's been writing the Profit for at least 3-4 years that I can remember. I don't think that he has fared as well the last couple of years, but it's a fun read nonetheless. It's not meant to be a professional handicapping tool if that is what you are after.

I've always enjoyed comparing my picks to his. Fwiw, I'm 22-9 so far.

 
I think I can talk to someone for 5-10 minutes and tell whether they are a sharp or a square....AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PICKS THEY MAKE. On any message board, you'll have a handful of guys who do well over the course of the year. In the same way, we could start a thread and have everyone flip a bunch of coins...I'm sure quite a few of us will have 75+% of them land on heads- that doesn't mean that those people are great at flipping heads.

 
I think I can talk to someone for 5-10 minutes and tell whether they are a sharp or a square....AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PICKS THEY MAKE. On any message board, you'll have a handful of guys who do well over the course of the year. In the same way, we could start a thread and have everyone flip a bunch of coins...I'm sure quite a few of us will have 75+% of them land on heads- that doesn't mean that those people are great at flipping heads.
A radio station in LA - KROQ I think - had the morning DJs and Sports Guy making picks - one of the DJ's went up against a magic marker. The marker was dropped from above the page of picks or something. Did pretty damned well.Just thought of that when you mentioned the flipping coins.Agree with your post aside from that. (or including...)
 
Sonny Lubick Blow Up Doll said:
Going 18-12-1 = making money right? :shrug:
Yes, but a monkey could go 18-12-1 or better the first 2 weeks of the season. I would just like some more info on the guy. He hardly gives any analysis on his picks.
I love how you say you're not here to bash, yet you start a thread asking for his qualifications. And in your first reply, you compare him to a monkey.At least be up-front about what you are saying.
SLB, laying it out like it is, as always. :thumbup:
 
In response to the first question, my qualifications are non-existent. Thanks for those in this thread that backed me up, but the truth of the matter is that a monkey and I will typically be right around the same 50% ratio. I'm not Ace Rothstein if that's what you're looking for. As mentioned earlier, this and the Power Rankings are intended to be more in fun than anything.

Sometimes I feel a little badly because they're the only weekly features that don't provide hardcore insightful analysis. But then I get over it.

For the record, I don't ONLY write those. I'm a regular contributor for most preseason features, the magazine, and in-season on game summaries. Just so no one thinks my job around here is "being a clown".

 
For those interested, this is a great site to bookmark

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/

Basically, The Sports Monitor serves as a 'watchdog' for handicappers who have the confidence to document the picks they charge paying clients money for. As a handicapper, I think you have to pay to be involved with the service, so you're really putting yourself out there as a handicapper doing this - paying to be held accountable for the picks you're charging money for. Pretty ballsy for those who are doing it, though, and you have to respect that.

A handicapper I respect and trust once told me something that I have used this site to verify over the past 5 years - that even the 'best' NFL/NCAA Football handicappers, over the course of a whole season of wagering (in other words, a large, and credible sample size), very rarely finish with an overall winnin percentage higher than somewhere between 55-62.5%...so if MB is 18-12 at this point, he's actually right around average, and that's pretty nice.

A guy who's picks I play is monitored here at The Sports Monitor. NFL, he's currently 8-1 over the 1st 2 weeks, but he'll be the first to tell you that it's almost inevitable that a week or weeks will come along that brings things back to the standard percentage, to temper your expectations, and not to get greedy, and increase the percentage of bankroll you're playing.

So, enjoy The Sports Monitor if you choose - at worst it's another tool in the box for all us 'recreational' gamblors!

 
In response to the first question, my qualifications are non-existent. Thanks for those in this thread that backed me up, but the truth of the matter is that a monkey and I will typically be right around the same 50% ratio. I'm not Ace Rothstein if that's what you're looking for. As mentioned earlier, this and the Power Rankings are intended to be more in fun than anything.Sometimes I feel a little badly because they're the only weekly features that don't provide hardcore insightful analysis. But then I get over it.For the record, I don't ONLY write those. I'm a regular contributor for most preseason features, the magazine, and in-season on game summaries. Just so no one thinks my job around here is "being a clown".
Thanks for the response. Like with everything else on the site, I read it to hear someone's else opinion about what's going to take place each Sunday. Sometimes I agree, sometimes I disagree, a lot of times I learn something new and go from there. In the end, it's my decision on which player to start and which teams I pick to win.
 
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DM - Regarldless of his qualifications, what difference should it make to you? Not bashing or anything, it just shouldn't really matter to anyone. I enjoy his perspective.

 
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Michael Brown said:
Raider Nation said:
Michael Brown said:
In response to the first question, my qualifications are non-existent. I'm not Ace Rothstein if that's what you're looking for.
You guys do have the same wardrobe, however. :)
Well when you look at the staff profile pics of guys like Stuart and Wood, you see the need for me to class it up a bit. ;)
Is Woods balding? :thumbdown:And to Dexter Manley: I'd like to wager he can't beat 18 - 12 over the next two weeks. Let's see what kind of monkey he is... :popcorn:
 
Michael Brown said:
In response to the first question, my qualifications are non-existent. Thanks for those in this thread that backed me up, but the truth of the matter is that a monkey and I will typically be right around the same 50% ratio. I'm not Ace Rothstein if that's what you're looking for. As mentioned earlier, this and the Power Rankings are intended to be more in fun than anything.Sometimes I feel a little badly because they're the only weekly features that don't provide hardcore insightful analysis. But then I get over it.For the record, I don't ONLY write those. I'm a regular contributor for most preseason features, the magazine, and in-season on game summaries. Just so no one thinks my job around here is "being a clown".
I just want to say I enjoy The Profit, and this is the first season I have read it. I am not a betting guy, but this season we added the NFL Pool feature to our fantasy season at MFL. I've been a football fan for a long while, and just never got into picking winners or the spread...I still remember those infomercials with a crazy screaming guy that will give you his locks by just dialing a 1-900 number. When Hammering Hank or the Shwam come on TV, I change the channel.With that said, yours is the first article/column I have read for info regarding picking winners...and I repeat we do not play the spread...so I adjust accordingly. After two weeks, I am 24-7. The season is long (we are playing the picks through the Super Bowl) and I figure to have some bad weeks ahead of me.Keep up the good work. :lmao:
 
For those interested, this is a great site to bookmark

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/

Basically, The Sports Monitor serves as a 'watchdog' for handicappers who have the confidence to document the picks they charge paying clients money for. As a handicapper, I think you have to pay to be involved with the service, so you're really putting yourself out there as a handicapper doing this - paying to be held accountable for the picks you're charging money for. Pretty ballsy for those who are doing it, though, and you have to respect that.

A handicapper I respect and trust once told me something that I have used this site to verify over the past 5 years - that even the 'best' NFL/NCAA Football handicappers, over the course of a whole season of wagering (in other words, a large, and credible sample size), very rarely finish with an overall winnin percentage higher than somewhere between 55-62.5%...so if MB is 18-12 at this point, he's actually right around average, and that's pretty nice.

A guy who's picks I play is monitored here at The Sports Monitor. NFL, he's currently 8-1 over the 1st 2 weeks, but he'll be the first to tell you that it's almost inevitable that a week or weeks will come along that brings things back to the standard percentage, to temper your expectations, and not to get greedy, and increase the percentage of bankroll you're playing.

So, enjoy The Sports Monitor if you choose - at worst it's another tool in the box for all us 'recreational' gamblors!
I have no opinion on that site, but I just want to say that nearly all of these "pay us for picks" services are scams. They inflate their record a few ways:1. They'll often bet on the favorites on the money line....obviously this is going to hit at much higher than 50%, and it makes their record look good...but since it doesn't pay 1:1 thats irrelevant.

2. They'll offer a ton of different types of picks: "5 star plays of the week", "Monday night specials", "Upset of the week", etc. And then after the year is over they'll just pick the category that did the best and promote that in the advertisments for next year.

And more I can't think of at the moment.

The bottom line is that sports betting is hard work. Most people, even those who know football very well, are simply horrendous at it. And even those who are great at it still only win 55-60% of their plays in the long run, so forget anyone who advertises anything better.

 
In response to the first question, my qualifications are non-existent. Thanks for those in this thread that backed me up, but the truth of the matter is that a monkey and I will typically be right around the same 50% ratio. I'm not Ace Rothstein if that's what you're looking for. As mentioned earlier, this and the Power Rankings are intended to be more in fun than anything.Sometimes I feel a little badly because they're the only weekly features that don't provide hardcore insightful analysis. But then I get over it.For the record, I don't ONLY write those. I'm a regular contributor for most preseason features, the magazine, and in-season on game summaries. Just so no one thinks my job around here is "being a clown".
Thank you so much for your reply. I was mostly curious if you were a tout or simply a staff member who does this along with other features. From your response you are definitely the latter. Fwiw, I'm not a big fan of touts as most of them are notorious for being scam artists.I don't get a chance to read most of the FGB articles (there's so much), and just happened to notice 'The Profit' the other day, so I had no idea how long it had been running, or what other work you did for the site. I will definitely check out your article every week.Finally, it's obvious that I wasn't comparing Michael Brown to a monkey. It sucks that a few people in this thread have worse reading comprehension than Dexter Manley. My thoughts and prayers are with you. I was simply pointing out the fact that a monkey (or someone flipping coins as in Assani's example) could post a very impressive W-L record picking games for an entire season, let alone a couple weeks. The genesis of my monkey reference came years ago on a TV show where they had a known Vegas tout go head-to-head against a monkey picking pro games. The monkey beat the "expert."The bottom line is, you have to look at a lot more than someone's short-term win/loss record to determine whether or not they are a good handicapper or sports bettor.
 
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Thank you so much for your reply. I was mostly curious if you were a tout or simply a staff member who does this along with other features. From your response you are definitely the latter. Fwiw, I'm not a big fan of touts as most of them are notorious for being scam artists.
Spoken like a gentleman.But do you really think Joe and David would allow some greasy Vegas tout post articles on their site?
 
Thank you so much for your reply. I was mostly curious if you were a tout or simply a staff member who does this along with other features. From your response you are definitely the latter. Fwiw, I'm not a big fan of touts as most of them are notorious for being scam artists.
Spoken like a gentleman.But do you really think Joe and David would allow some greasy Vegas tout post articles on their site?
probably not, but the accuracy of the Footballguys predictions leave alot to be desired. Understood no one can predict the future, and this site is intended to keep us users informed above all else, but the flipping the coin tactic works better than alot of the "informed" recommendations found on the site.I imagine most all of us are looking for an edge, and if providing us with the up to date information to create our own edge is the main purpose of this site, then job well done... I just feel the site has lost it's edge with the influx of up to the minute information provided elsewhere for free...
 
What qualifications does anyone list for predicting the future?

The notion that one could be "qualified" for this is funny.

 
Thank you so much for your reply. I was mostly curious if you were a tout or simply a staff member who does this along with other features. From your response you are definitely the latter. Fwiw, I'm not a big fan of touts as most of them are notorious for being scam artists.
Spoken like a gentleman.But do you really think Joe and David would allow some greasy Vegas tout post articles on their site?
probably not, but the accuracy of the Footballguys predictions leave alot to be desired. Understood no one can predict the future, and this site is intended to keep us users informed above all else, but the flipping the coin tactic works better than alot of the "informed" recommendations found on the site.

I imagine most all of us are looking for an edge, and if providing us with the up to date information to create our own edge is the main purpose of this site, then job well done... I just feel the site has lost it's edge with the influx of up to the minute information provided elsewhere for free...
stp-d - if you are interested in how FBGs predictions compare to the other "experts", you may want to follow this thread Rankings Evaluation. You can draw your own conclusion on whether they are better than a coin.
 
I would love to see a FBG contest where we track our picks and "play bankroll".
I very much agree. This would be an excellent feature.Side note, I enjoy both the Profit and Power Ranking weekly articles a great deal. I find them very entertaining, if nothing else.
 
I saw this topic, and my first thought "Mike Brown wrote a book on how he's been fleecing the people of Cincinnati for all these years?"

 

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