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The Rice vs Moss debate (1 Viewer)

BaBastage

Footballguy
A couple of threads recently fueled the Jerry Rice / Randy Moss GOAT debate.

While I'm in the Rice camp, I think there's a very good chance that Randy overtakes Jerry in a few of the categories that just a few years ago seemed out of reach.

Take a look at touchdowns by year played

You can see Rice, Moss, Owens, Carter, and Harrison.

Both Owens and Moss have a legitimate shot if they stay healthy and play at a 12-13 TD per year pace for the next 5 years.

If Moss and Brady come near to the 07 numbers, I'd say Moss becomes a lock even when his TD production wanes as he gets older. I'm less convinced Owens will do it - too much turmoil and I think the injury risk will catch up to him.

Anyhow, seeing in puts things in perspective, doesn't it?

 
Through 7-8 years, Moss and Rice were neck and neck. Then he went to Oakland and his numbers suffered, otherwise theyd probably be even right now.

Moss was and is tremendous - you can see it easily on the field and the numbers also back it up.

 
I play when I want to play.It is really just up to Moss if he wants to play long enough or not.
I agree with the sentiment, and that's why I'm behind Rice in the discussion.But I think that if Moss has another good year, he'll be close enough to "want" to continue to play.
 
I play when I want to play.It is really just up to Moss if he wants to play long enough or not.
I agree with the sentiment, and that's why I'm behind Rice in the discussion.But I think that if Moss has another good year, he'll be close enough to "want" to continue to play.
There is no question about Rice's passion for the game. His smile is sybolic to me of a guy with too much heart and having fun to stop playing. Amoungst friends we try to imitate his smile or just say "Jerry" when smiling as we know what this means.I could see Randy Moss retiring if he wins a super bowl. If the Patriots don't win one with him I think he will keep trying. I do think this is one of his goals.I think Moss has more talent than Rice ever had. Doesen't mean he is a better player though. There is more than just talent that makes a player good or GOAT.
 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?

A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.

 
If Rice had the physical ability/talent that Moss possesses...he would have put it out of the park long ago IMO.

 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.
While you make a good point about the game changing to favor the offense and the passing game. This is true it has.But Moss having a problem getting off the line? Thats funny man.The only thing I recall Moss saying he needed to get better at is beating the cover 2. Which usualy means he is being triple covered as both safeties have to pick him up.I think he has adapted to the cover 2 by now..ETA- Jerry Rice and WCO is what has lead to the league becoming more of a passing game than a running game. That does not mean that Rice was not getting similar targets to what top WR get today. The WCO was meant to be an extension of the running game with high % passing and RAC. One could actualy argue that defenses were a lot less prepared for Jerry Rice and WCO in its infancy as they were geared more towards stoping the run that was more favored by offenses during that time.
 
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there is no greater disparity in the NFL then the difference between Jerry Rice and the next best WR ever. Look at any other position and you can see 5 guys who are neck and neck with one another ... that is not the case with WR.

 
So Moss would need to average 10-11 TDs per season for 6 more seasons (meaning he'd play until about age 37)? Maybe. I doubt he'll play that many more years, but I could perhaps see him averaging 15 TDs for 4 more seasons. It'll be close.

Looking at the list of up-and-comers, Fitzgerald seems the next likely candidate. He's got 46 TDs and he'd age 25 now, so if he plays until age 38, he'd need to average 11-12 TDs per year. He'll need Boldin to leave Arizona, and for Leinart to step up to top-QB status.

Geez, Rice is a warrior.

 
No chance. Owens doesn't have 5 years left in the tank and I doubt Moss does either.
I agree on Owens but not so sure on Moss. Has Moss ever had a serious injury? Just checked. Outside of his rookie season he has never missed more than three starts in a season. And in his entire career he has missed a grand total of 6 games. Out of a possible 176 career games in the regular season he has played in 170 of them. That's pretty impressive.Rice missed only 4 games his first 12 seasons and then blew the knee the second game of his 13th. But he followed that with 7 seasons of 16 games played. That's impressive as well. I doubt Moss catches him but if he legitimately put his mind to it (and stayed healthy) I think he could catch him... Having Brady for the next 6-7 years should Moss last that long is a definite plus...
 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.
I agree with you. Plus, advancements in medicine might give todays and future players more longevity.I'd love to do a variance-from-mean analysis of these guys. Basically, take a look at Rice's totals by year, and compare that to the average (similar, if you can define it) receiver that year. That would theoretically give a baseline for comparing players within their era's.Unfortunately, I don't have access to a database that I can query.
 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?

A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.
I agree with you. Plus, advancements in medicine might give todays and future players more longevity.I'd love to do a variance-from-mean analysis of these guys. Basically, take a look at Rice's totals by year, and compare that to the average (similar, if you can define it) receiver that year. That would theoretically give a baseline for comparing players within their era's.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to a database that I can query.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm
 
When it is all said and done people will talk about Larry Fitz and Rice as the best WR's ever

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/FitzLa00-2.php
Through age 25:Moss 414-6743-60

Fitz 426-5975-46

Rice 200-3575-40

Through age 32:

Rice 820-13275-131

Moss 843-13201-135

To stay even with Rice through age 33, Moss would need 99-1922-11 this season. (Rice has the best year yardage wise for a WR (at 33) with 1848 in the crazy year that was 1995.)

 
When it is all said and done people will talk about Larry Fitz and Rice as the best WR's ever

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/FitzLa00-2.php
Through age 25:Moss 414-6743-60

Fitz 426-5975-46

Rice 200-3575-40

Through age 32:

Rice 820-13275-131

Moss 843-13201-135

To stay even with Rice through age 33, Moss would need 99-1922-11 this season. (Rice has the best year yardage wise for a WR (at 33) with 1848 in the crazy year that was 1995.)
This is very telling in that Rice's first season was when he was 23. Moss' first season he was 21. Rice has a slight edge at age 32 and played two less season...
 
When it is all said and done people will talk about Larry Fitz and Rice as the best WR's ever

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/FitzLa00-2.php
Through age 25:Moss 414-6743-60

Fitz 426-5975-46

Rice 200-3575-40

Through age 32:

Rice 820-13275-131

Moss 843-13201-135

To stay even with Rice through age 33, Moss would need 99-1922-11 this season. (Rice has the best year yardage wise for a WR (at 33) with 1848 in the crazy year that was 1995.)
I like Fitz. I really do. But he is not at the same level as Moss Rice and Harrison.And no Randy Moss will not be forgotten.

 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?

A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.
I agree with you. Plus, advancements in medicine might give todays and future players more longevity.I'd love to do a variance-from-mean analysis of these guys. Basically, take a look at Rice's totals by year, and compare that to the average (similar, if you can define it) receiver that year. That would theoretically give a baseline for comparing players within their era's.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to a database that I can query.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm
Part of the challenge here will be that there were fewer guys that came close to Rice's numbers in the 80s and early 90s than there are today in the Moss era, so I would expect Rice to have a huge advantage vs his peers compared to Moss vs his peers.
 
I always thought of Jerry Rice as a guy that never had any special talent given to him and he had to work his ### off to get everything. I don't know if Moss can keep playing until his late 30's while maintaining his high level of play, but there's no doubt in my mind that Jerry Rice was the hardest worker in NFL history. If the hardest worker in NFL only had a 9 TD season at age 40, I don't see Moss being able to do the same. Not because he isn't talented, I just don't see him having the motivation to stay in shape like Rice does. Moss always looked like a guy who can turn it on and off anytime he wants because of pure talent, but that can only last you so long as you get older. His work ethic just isn't in the same class as people like Marvin Harrison, much less, Jerry Rice.

 
A couple of threads recently fueled the Jerry Rice / Randy Moss GOAT debate.

While I'm in the Rice camp, I think there's a very good chance that Randy overtakes Jerry in a few of the categories that just a few years ago seemed out of reach.

Take a look at touchdowns by year played

You can see Rice, Moss, Owens, Carter, and Harrison.

Both Owens and Moss have a legitimate shot if they stay healthy and play at a 12-13 TD per year pace for the next 5 years.

If Moss and Brady come near to the 07 numbers, I'd say Moss becomes a lock even when his TD production wanes as he gets older. I'm less convinced Owens will do it - too much turmoil and I think the injury risk will catch up to him.

Anyhow, seeing in puts things in perspective, doesn't it?
Owens will be 36 years old in December. Even if he had a "Rice like" finish to his career and stayed healthy and effective until he's 40 he'll come up short of Rice's totals.Moss is only 32 so if he lasts to 40 he'd need to average about 80 receptions, 1000-1100 receiving yards and 7 Receiving TDs to pass Rice in those stats. He's got a reasonable shot (20%??) at the TD mark but the other 2 look out of reach.

 
I always thought of Jerry Rice as a guy that never had any special talent given to him and he had to work his ### off to get everything. I don't know if Moss can keep playing until his late 30's while maintaining his high level of play, but there's no doubt in my mind that Jerry Rice was the hardest worker in NFL history. If the hardest worker in NFL only had a 9 TD season at age 40, I don't see Moss being able to do the same. Not because he isn't talented, I just don't see him having the motivation to stay in shape like Rice does. Moss always looked like a guy who can turn it on and off anytime he wants because of pure talent, but that can only last you so long as you get older. His work ethic just isn't in the same class as people like Marvin Harrison, much less, Jerry Rice.
Well.. I wouldn't go that far.Moss works very hard in the offseason to keep himself in shape.But as far as the passion. Moss has said before that Football is not everything to him. I would not say that about Jerry Rice. Rice is the kind of guy who catches slants in his dreams because he loves it so much.
 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?

A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.
I agree with you. Plus, advancements in medicine might give todays and future players more longevity.I'd love to do a variance-from-mean analysis of these guys. Basically, take a look at Rice's totals by year, and compare that to the average (similar, if you can define it) receiver that year. That would theoretically give a baseline for comparing players within their era's.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to a database that I can query.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm
Part of the challenge here will be that there were fewer guys that came close to Rice's numbers in the 80s and early 90s than there are today in the Moss era, so I would expect Rice to have a huge advantage vs his peers compared to Moss vs his peers.
This is true.Rice was competing with guys like Mike Quick ect. for most of his early years.

It wasn't close.

Moss has been competing with Marvin TO ect. in a league that passes the ball a lot more than it did back in the day.

 
I have to think it is very unlikely that Moss catches Rice. Through 11 years, Moss is behind by 11 touchdowns. I actually think he pulls close to even or even ahead through year 14 or 15, but that is where Rice separates from the pack. You just can't predict that another receiver will put up 1,000+ yard, 7+ td seasons in their late 30's. It is possible, but the odds are much greater that Moss slows down or even retires in the next 5 or so years. Moss is basically equal to Rice through his early 30's...the likely separation will come after age 35. Also, we are only discussing receiving TD's...which is fine. However, Rice does have an extra 10 rushing tds in his career, so the overall TD record is much more likely to stay with Rice.

 
Through 7-8 years, Moss and Rice were neck and neck. Then he went to Oakland and his numbers suffered, otherwise theyd probably be even right now.
It's not like Rice didn't spend a few years in Oakland himself . . .
 
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What's with all the "Rice wasn't that talented, he just worked hard" schtick recently?
I said that I think Moss has more talent than Rice had. And what I mean by that is physical talent. Moss is faster than Jerry was. He is slightly bigger. Can jump higher ect.That is not to say that Jerry did not have insane off the charts talent.In his day Rice was considered a big WR at 6' 2". And I think he was bigger than most other WR in his early years. In fact Rice is one of the trend setters that caused teams to look for bigger WR than they had been.But when you hear coaches and players and personel make comparisons at WR.. they always say things like "he has great leaping ability. Kind of like Randy Moss." ect. ect. They always use Moss as the example because he has every talent or trait that they are looking for in a WR.In any case. Jerry certainly had great talent. So do a lot of players. It was not his talent that made him great however. It was his circumstances, work ethic and passion that made him GOAT.. not just his talent. And Randy Moss's talent will not be enough for him to surpass Jerry's numbers without that same passion and work ethic.No schtick. Just my honest opinion about this.
 
Someone will eventually catch Rice, if only because current rules are far more favorable to the passing game than they were in Rice's time. How would Rice do if he couldn't be touched past 5 yards? How would Moss be different if the game was a little more physical at the line today?

A list of guys from the past decade with gaudy stats says one thing- its easier to put up gaudy stats today. Compare players to their peers. Rice dominated the position, without debate.
I agree with you. Plus, advancements in medicine might give todays and future players more longevity.I'd love to do a variance-from-mean analysis of these guys. Basically, take a look at Rice's totals by year, and compare that to the average (similar, if you can define it) receiver that year. That would theoretically give a baseline for comparing players within their era's.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to a database that I can query.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm
Part of the challenge here will be that there were fewer guys that came close to Rice's numbers in the 80s and early 90s than there are today in the Moss era, so I would expect Rice to have a huge advantage vs his peers compared to Moss vs his peers.
This is true.Rice was competing with guys like Mike Quick ect. for most of his early years.

It wasn't close.

Moss has been competing with Marvin TO ect. in a league that passes the ball a lot more than it did back in the day.
That was my point. Rice was doing things that none of his peers could even come close to. And he had some pretty impressive peers- Art Monk, Chris Carter, Steve Largent, Michael Irvin, Sterling Sharp, Tim Brown, Irvin Fryar, James Lofton, Andre Rison, Andre Reed.... And then there was the run and shoot offense making silly stats for guys like Hermann Moore, Drew Hill and Haywood Jefferies. Rice's phenomenal skill overshadowed all these guys, some of the most talented in league history. They just couldn't compare. My intention isn't to take anything away from Moss or T.O. or Harrison, etc. Just to point out that none of them totally overshadowed the others. Rice did that. If Randy Moss plays long enough to break all the records, good for him. But he still didn't dominate an entire generation.

 
A couple of threads recently fueled the Jerry Rice / Randy Moss GOAT debate.

While I'm in the Rice camp, I think there's a very good chance that Randy overtakes Jerry in a few of the categories that just a few years ago seemed out of reach.

Take a look at touchdowns by year played

You can see Rice, Moss, Owens, Carter, and Harrison.

Both Owens and Moss have a legitimate shot if they stay healthy and play at a 12-13 TD per year pace for the next 5 years.

If Moss and Brady come near to the 07 numbers, I'd say Moss becomes a lock even when his TD production wanes as he gets older. I'm less convinced Owens will do it - too much turmoil and I think the injury risk will catch up to him.

Anyhow, seeing in puts things in perspective, doesn't it?
I stopped reading after that. Owens is about to fall off that cliff that Harrison tripped over in 2007. Five years is a LONG time even for a receiver Moss's age to produce like that.
 
A couple of threads recently fueled the Jerry Rice / Randy Moss GOAT debate.

While I'm in the Rice camp, I think there's a very good chance that Randy overtakes Jerry in a few of the categories that just a few years ago seemed out of reach.

Take a look at touchdowns by year played

You can see Rice, Moss, Owens, Carter, and Harrison.

Both Owens and Moss have a legitimate shot if they stay healthy and play at a 12-13 TD per year pace for the next 5 years.

If Moss and Brady come near to the 07 numbers, I'd say Moss becomes a lock even when his TD production wanes as he gets older. I'm less convinced Owens will do it - too much turmoil and I think the injury risk will catch up to him.

Anyhow, seeing in puts things in perspective, doesn't it?
I stopped reading after that. Owens is about to fall off that cliff that Harrison tripped over in 2007. Five years is a LONG time even for a receiver Moss's age to produce like that.
Moss has averaged 0.79 TD/gm over his career, counting everything (the two years in OAK, a year with Cassel, some less than stellar fill-ins at QB in MIN, etc.). If he stays in NE with Brady, I personally see him keeping up that pace. Even with half his games having been played with Cassell, Moss has averaged 1.06 TD/gm in NE.

He's currently 62 TD receptions behind Rice. So it would take Moss 78 more games at the same rate of production to catch Rice (5 seasons provided Moss stayed healthy), which would mean Moss would be 36 that year. Of all of Rice's records, IMO that's the most likely one for Moss to catch Rice in.

By comparison, Owens is playing at age 36 . . . the year Moss would theoretically be able to break the TD receiving record. Ironically, Owens averaged 0.81 TD/gm from 32-35 years old. So I definitely think Moss has a decent chance to overtake Moss if he plays nice, wants to play that long, and is willing to play for a reasonable amount of money to stay with NE.

 
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I play when I want to play.

It is really just up to Moss if he wants to play long enough or not.
I agree with the sentiment, and that's why I'm behind Rice in the discussion.But I think that if Moss has another good year, he'll be close enough to "want" to continue to play.
There is no question about Rice's passion for the game. His smile is sybolic to me of a guy with too much heart and having fun to stop playing. Amoungst friends we try to imitate his smile or just say "Jerry" when smiling as we know what this means.I could see Randy Moss retiring if he wins a super bowl. If the Patriots don't win one with him I think he will keep trying. I do think this is one of his goals.

I think Moss has more talent than Rice ever had. Doesen't mean he is a better player though. There is more than just talent that makes a player good or GOAT.
I agree that Moss is more gifted physically, but I think that Rice was a much better student of the game and a superior player from the work-ethic/film-room/mental aspect. Given the choice between the two, I'd go Rice everytime. Brains, hard work and dedication to one's craft > mere physical talent anyday.

If Moss had come to play every day and every game and each play, I think he'd have had a legitimate shot at being the greatest of all time. The Oakland years and the "I play when I want to play" mentality in general throughout his career have ended up wasting a good portion of his talent/time/snaps in the league, IMO. To be greatest of all time means you put forth maximum effort on each play in every game, no matter the scoreboard (remember the Heidi game?). Rice did this, Moss doesn't.

MW

 
When it is all said and done people will talk about Larry Fitz and Rice as the best WR's ever

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/FitzLa00-2.php
Through age 25:Moss 414-6743-60

Fitz 426-5975-46

Rice 200-3575-40

Through age 32:

Rice 820-13275-131

Moss 843-13201-135

To stay even with Rice through age 33, Moss would need 99-1922-11 this season. (Rice has the best year yardage wise for a WR (at 33) with 1848 in the crazy year that was 1995.)
This is very telling in that Rice's first season was when he was 23. Moss' first season he was 21. Rice has a slight edge at age 32 and played two less season...
Oakland = 2 yrs. I'd call it a wash ;)

 
When it is all said and done people will talk about Larry Fitz and Rice as the best WR's ever

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/FitzLa00-2.php
Through age 25:Moss 414-6743-60

Fitz 426-5975-46

Rice 200-3575-40

Through age 32:

Rice 820-13275-131

Moss 843-13201-135

To stay even with Rice through age 33, Moss would need 99-1922-11 this season. (Rice has the best year yardage wise for a WR (at 33) with 1848 in the crazy year that was 1995.)
This is very telling in that Rice's first season was when he was 23. Moss' first season he was 21. Rice has a slight edge at age 32 and played two less season...
Oakland = 2 yrs. I'd call it a wash ;)
I would agree with that. But then I throw in Rice's 13th season. Blew out his knee. Played in only two games....
 
Through 7-8 years, Moss and Rice were neck and neck. Then he went to Oakland and his numbers suffered, otherwise theyd probably be even right now.Moss was and is tremendous - you can see it easily on the field and the numbers also back it up.
The interesting thing is MANY experts said Randy Moss was washed up when he played in Oakland. Just goes to show you the experts know very very little. I mean, how do you miss your evaluation of one of the best WRs to ever play the game?
 

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