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The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (3 Viewers)

No. Putin's regime is not Stalin's and the extent of *bloody* purges is vastly exaggerated. Also they don't really care for your views as long as you don't take active action. Some my social media mutuals were posting critical stuff, while working for the state. Nobody cares
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I really like his post at the end of the thread:

Do not be more Catholic than a Pope. If you rea more Catholic than a Pope, you endanger the Pope and he gets rid of you. You must be less Catholic than a Pope, and then you get promoted. That's why Russian system selects for guilty people (from the propaganda standpoint). The end
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themeistersinger said:
Russia, Ukraine Trade Blame in Fresh Strike on Nuclear Plant
www.themoscowtimes.com

Russia, Ukraine Trade Blame in Fresh Strike on Nuclear Plant - The Moscow Times

Russia and Ukraine accused each other on Thursday of shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Russian-controlled southern Ukraine ahead of an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to address global concerns over the facility.
www.themoscowtimes.com www.themoscowtimes.com
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The UN should take over the security of nuclear facility now creating a safe zone. Any violations (shelling, bombing, incursions etc) will be dealt with swiftly. Stop with the words and take control of the situation..
 
Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east
www.bbc.com

Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east

The Luhansk base was targeted after a Russian journalist revealed its location online, Ukraine claims.
www.bbc.com

Money quote
The Ukrainian daily Ukrainska Pravda reports that a pro-Kremlin Russian journalist, Sergei Sreda, revealed the Wagner HQ in a Telegram post on 8 August. He posted photos of his visit to the HQ and a sign in one of them identified its address as Mironovskaya 12, Popasna.
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themeistersinger said:
Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east
www.bbc.com

Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east

The Luhansk base was targeted after a Russian journalist revealed its location online, Ukraine claims.
www.bbc.com

Money quote
The Ukrainian daily Ukrainska Pravda reports that a pro-Kremlin Russian journalist, Sergei Sreda, revealed the Wagner HQ in a Telegram post on 8 August. He posted photos of his visit to the HQ and a sign in one of them identified its address as Mironovskaya 12, Popasna.
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SELF-SELECTING TARGET: A pro-RU journalist, Sergei Sreda, posted on Telegram after of his visit to a Wagner Group HQ on the front. A sign in one of them identified its address as Mironovskaya 12, Popasna. Ukrainian artillery then destroyed the building.
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The explosions in Crimea only demonstrate what most of us new all along- even if Russia succeeds in the invasion of Ukraine it will not end well for them. Occupying hostile territory almost never does.
 
themeistersinger said:
‘A question of time’: Ukrainians determined to win back the south
www.theguardian.com

‘A question of time’: Ukrainians determined to win back the south

War against Russia is entering a decisive phase, but on the frontline a big push still feels some way off
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sharing one quote from it:
Advanced western weapons have allowed Ukraine to erode Moscow’s military superiority, slowly but surely. “They have made a difference. Previously they fired 100 shells at us, now they fire 20. We are approaching parity,” Kostenko said. He continued: “To liberate Kherson we don’t need to attack Kherson. If we control the bridge, they have no logistics. If they make a pontoon bridge, it can easily be destroyed.”

The Russians appear to have come to the same conclusion. Some western intelligence experts believe it is a matter of time before they abandon Kherson and retreat across the river. Their military leadership reportedly fled last week to the safer left bank. Russian motorised and airborne regiments have been reinforcing defensive positions, with additional soldiers brought in, as well as equipment from Crimea.
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It nearly 6 months since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today, I explore Ukraine’s potential counteroffensive in the south, and the considerations for planning and conducting such a large-scale campaign. 1/25 🧵
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threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: It nearly 6 months since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine began. Today, I explore Ukraine’s potential counteroffensive in the south, and the considerations for planning and conducting such a large-s...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
The Ukrainian attack on Russian bases in Crimea in the past week has brought attention back to a war which many in the west have largely lost sight of. In this thread, an examination of the prospects for a Ukrainian victory. 1/18 🧵
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threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: The Ukrainian attack on Russian bases in Crimea in the past week has brought attention back to a war which many in the west have largely lost sight of. In this thread, an examination of...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24

Institute for the Study of War

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive operations in Ukraine while reaffirming that Russia’s objectives in the war have not changed. At a meeting with defense m
understandingwar.org understandingwar.org

Either running out of ammunition of running out of soldiers.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated on August 24 that Russian forces are slowing down the overall pace of their offensive operations in Ukraine while reaffirming that Russia’s objectives in the war have not changed. At a meeting with defense ministers from member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Shoigu stated that Russian troops will be slowing down the pace of offensive operations in Ukraine in a conscious effort to minimize civilian casualties.[1] Shoigu also reiterated that operations in Ukraine are going according to plan and that Russian forces will accomplish all their objectives, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia’s maximalist strategic war aims in Ukraine have not changed.[2] The Russian MoD has previously issued similar statements to account for the pace of operations in Ukraine.[3]

Shoigu's statement may also represent an attempt by the Russian MoD to set information conditions to explain and excuse the negligible gains Russian forces have made in Ukraine in the last six weeks. Since Russian forces resumed offensive operations following a pause on July 16 Russian forces have gained about 450.84 km2 (roughly 174 square miles) of new territory, an area around the size of Andorra. Russian forces have lost roughly 45,000 km2 of territory since March 21 (the estimated date of Russian forces’ deepest advance into Ukraine), an area larger than Denmark. As ISW has previously assessed, Russian forces are unable to translate limited tactical gains into wider operational successes, and their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are culminating. Shoigu’s statement is likely an attempt to explain away these failings.[4]
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The finite army
ridl.io

The finite army – Riddle Russia

Following six months of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Pentagon estimates Russian military casualties at 70−80 thousand, both killed and wounded. In the second half of July 2022, the CIA estimated Russian losses at 15,000 killed and 45,000 wounded. At the time of writing, the General Staff of...
ridl.io ridl.io
 
At this point I’d say it’s fairly clear that Russia’s leadership intends for the 3rd Army Corps (3AC) to be used offensively. Russia has held back a lot of high end kit including BMP-3, T-80BVM, T-90M, and even the latest AK-12 models (h/t @JakOSpades)
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threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @tom_bullock_ on Thread Reader App

@tom_bullock_: At this point I’d say it’s fairly clear that Russia’s leadership intends for the 3rd Army Corps (3AC) to be used offensively. Russia has held back a lot of high end kit including BMP-3, T-80BVM,...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
There's been lots of talk about Russia not able to replenish their armor, artillery rounds, precision munitions, and manpower. But I've seen little analysis on the replenishment of munitions and manpower for Ukraine. Are they taking similar losses and are they running out of capable soldiers?
 
The Z Machine said:
There's been lots of talk about Russia not able to replenish their armor, artillery rounds, precision munitions, and manpower. But I've seen little analysis on the replenishment of munitions and manpower for Ukraine. Are they taking similar losses and are they running out of capable soldiers?
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Ukraine has already run out of the 152 mm shells that work in their Soviet era artillery. So they are using the NATO 155 mm shell exclusively.
In terms of manpower, Ukraine and Russia losses seem to be comparable, but Russia has a much bigger pool to draw from. Although a much higher percentage of Ukrainians are willing to server compared to the Russians.
As long as NATO is willing to stick it out with supplying Ukraine, they should be able to eventually overtake whatever the Russians have in reserve in terms of equipment. But this coming winter is going to severely strain the NATO alliance, when Europeans are freezing in their homes and would gladly sacrifice the Ukrainians to get their hands on some of that sweet Russian Crude and Natural Gas.
 
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