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The San Diego Chargers will win the Superbowl (1 Viewer)

tikigods

tikigods

Footballguy
Interesting. I guess I'll throw a few bucks on the Chargers.

The San Diego Chargers have never won a Super Bowl in franchise history, but if the "law of the Philadelphia Eagles home opener" holds, that could change in 2013.

What's the law you ask?

Since 2009, the team that Philadelphia plays in its home opener has gone on to win theSuper Bowl. Seriously -- and here's a refresher, just in case you need it.

The Eagles first home game in 2009 was against New Orleans. The Saints beat the Colts inSuper Bowl XLIV.

In 2010, Green Bay opened up Philadelphia's home schedule and guess what happened? ThePackers beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.

The streak didn't end in 2011 because that's when the Eagles opened up their home schedule with the New York Giants, the same Giants that beat the New England Patriots in Super BowlXLVI.

In 2012, the first regular season game at Lincoln Financial Field featured the Eagles against -- you guessed it, the Ravens. Of course, the Ravens went on to beat the 49ers in Super BowlXLVII.
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http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/22098477/chargers-will-win-super-bowl-xlviii-according-to-eagles-schedule-

 
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Chargers could easily win this week against a cinci team that hasn't won a playoff game since the early nineties. If they do, they will play denver, whose quarterback has gone one and done twice as often as he's won his first playoff game. The following week, they'd play the last remaining team of new england, kc or the colts, but all of those teams have flaws. And they'd get to play the nfc champ on a neutral field, which gives them a much better chance against a team like seattle, who would have to fly just as far to get to new york as they do. And in a snowy game, give me the running backs and deep but unspectacular receiving corps of san diego to neutralize seattle's big secondary.

I don't think its a stretch to consider them legit superbowl contenders in a relatively weak field.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
tikigods said:
tommyGunZ said:
I'll take your bet. What odds do you want?
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Odds are 50-1.
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Although I think they have no shot at all whatsoever in any way shape or form, even if they played a best of 10 Tim style - I want to drop $200 at those odds... The AFC isn't that scary and they've already won in Denver.

If they made it to NJ, I'd hedge the bet.
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25-1 to win the AFC.

San Diego beat the Colts, Chiefs twice, and Broncos in Denver. They only lost to Cincy by a touchdown. It's worth a flier.

 
tikigods said:
tommyGunZ said:
I'll take your bet. What odds do you want?
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Odds are 50-1.
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If the Chargers have a 37.5% chance to win each game, 50-1 would be fair odds (with no vigorish).

I'd give them a better chance than that against the Bengals, but then things would get tougher in the later rounds, so that might not be that far off. Given that the vigorish on these types of bets is typically substantial, that might make the Chargers one of the least bad bets available, but perhaps still not a good bet.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
tikigods said:
tommyGunZ said:
I'll take your bet. What odds do you want?
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Odds are 50-1.
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If the Chargers have a 37.5% chance to win each game, 50-1 would be fair odds (with no vigorish).

I'd give them a better chance than that against the Bengals, but then things would get tougher in the later rounds, so that might not be that far off. Given that the vigorish on these types of bets is typically substantial, that might make the Chargers one of the least bad bets available, but perhaps still not a good bet.
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Thoughts on winning at least the AFC at 25-1 odds? The AFC just seems so wide open and SD has handled most of the teams (fairly well) who they would face.

 
bostonfred said:
Chargers could easily win this week against a cinci team that hasn't won a playoff game since the early nineties. If they do, they will play denver, whose quarterback has gone one and done twice as often as he's won his first playoff game. The following week, they'd play the last remaining team of new england, kc or the colts, but all of those teams have flaws. And they'd get to play the nfc champ on a neutral field, which gives them a much better chance against a team like seattle, who would have to fly just as far to get to new york as they do. And in a snowy game, give me the running backs and deep but unspectacular receiving corps of san diego to neutralize seattle's big secondary.

I don't think its a stretch to consider them legit superbowl contenders in a relatively weak field.
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You just accurately described what MT and I have been secretly thinking since San Diego held KC on 4th down in OT last week.

Yes MT, I'm speaking for you.

 
If you're going to bet on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, you may as well just bet them to win the Super Bowl at 50-1. If they don't win the AFC, you'd lose both bets anyway. If they do win the AFC, then you just do as fantasycurse suggested and hedge before the Super Bowl to lock in a profit.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
If you're going to bet on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, you may as well just bet them to win the Super Bowl at 50-1. If they don't win the AFC, you'd lose both bets anyway. If they do win the AFC, then you just do as fantasycurse suggested and hedge before the Super Bowl to lock in a profit.
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I like your thinking.

 
As much as I'm a homer, I can't see SD winning on the road in Cincy, on the road in Denver, and then beating either Seattle of SF on a neutral field.

They can accomplish a couple of those, but all 3 is a pipe dream IMO.

 
As a Broncos fan, the Chargers are a bit of a worry because their ball-control offense can work well against a crappy defense like the Broncos - hell, it did less than a month ago! - which can limit the possessions by the offense. Beating the Bengals tomorrow will be a very tough task, but I won't be surprised if the Chargers somehow make it to NJ.

 
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tommyGunZ said:
As much as I'm a homer, I can't see SD winning on the road in Cincy, on the road in Denver, and then beating either Seattle of SF on a neutral field.

They can accomplish a couple of those, but all 3 is a pipe dream IMO.
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Hope, bro. Every team in this has a chance.

 
tommyGunZ said:
As much as I'm a homer, I can't see SD winning on the road in Cincy, on the road in Denver, and then beating either Seattle of SF on a neutral field.

They can accomplish a couple of those, but all 3 is a pipe dream IMO.
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Now imagine if they'd have to win 4 games.

 
tommyGunZ said:
As much as I'm a homer, I can't see SD winning on the road in Cincy, on the road in Denver, and then beating either Seattle of SF on a neutral field.

They can accomplish a couple of those, but all 3 is a pipe dream IMO.
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Giants x2, Ravens
 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
If you're going to bet on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, you may as well just bet them to win the Super Bowl at 50-1. If they don't win the AFC, you'd lose both bets anyway. If they do win the AFC, then you just do as fantasycurse suggested and hedge before the Super Bowl to lock in a profit.
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I think I'd lean the opposite way. If you think the Chargers will be underdogs in the Super Bowl, you'd win more while risking the same amount by betting on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, and then using whatever you win on that bet to take the Chargers in the Super Bowl. (Or if you want to hedge in order to lock in a profit, bet less than that on the Super Bowl.)

If you think the Chargers won't be underdogs in the Super Bowl, then I'd go with IE's approach.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
If you're going to bet on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, you may as well just bet them to win the Super Bowl at 50-1. If they don't win the AFC, you'd lose both bets anyway. If they do win the AFC, then you just do as fantasycurse suggested and hedge before the Super Bowl to lock in a profit.
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I think I'd lean the opposite way. If you think the Chargers will be underdogs in the Super Bowl, you'd win more while risking the same amount by betting on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, and then using whatever you win on that bet to take the Chargers in the Super Bowl. (Or if you want to hedge in order to lock in a profit, bet less than that on the Super Bowl.)

If you think the Chargers won't be underdogs in the Super Bowl, then I'd go with IE's approach.
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:thumbup:

 
bostonfred said:
Chargers could easily win this week against a cinci team that hasn't won a playoff game since the early nineties. If they do, they will play denver, whose quarterback has gone one and done twice as often as he's won his first playoff game. The following week, they'd play the last remaining team of new england, kc or the colts, but all of those teams have flaws. And they'd get to play the nfc champ on a neutral field, which gives them a much better chance against a team like seattle, who would have to fly just as far to get to new york as they do. And in a snowy game, give me the running backs and deep but unspectacular receiving corps of san diego to neutralize seattle's big secondary.

I don't think its a stretch to consider them legit superbowl contenders in a relatively weak field.
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Perhaps it's not that outrageous but it would blow my mind if they win in the one year since I've been a fan (2003) that I gave them absolutely no chance.

 
The Chargers needed two remarkably-blown calls by the refs to beat Kansas City's JV squad last week. I don't give them much of a shot winning in Cincy, much less winning the whole dang thing.

 
Despyzer said:
The Chargers needed two remarkably-blown calls by the refs to beat Kansas City's JV squad last week. I don't give them much of a shot winning in Cincy, much less winning the whole dang thing.
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The Chiefs' backups are pretty good. I think it's a lot worse that the Chargers lost to the Texans, Titans, and Raiders. But I also think it makes little sense to extrapolate from just one or a few bad games.

I do think the Bengals should be favored in this game -- even thought they lost to the Browns.

 
The tricky thing about the Chargers is that, while their defensive stats are poor, they have a running game that can help them dominate time of possession. An offense that can play keep away can mask a poor defense.

The Chargers became a run-first ball control team against the Giants. They have had 42 drives since then. Only 4 drives were 3 and out. 6 drives were kneeldowns to end a half or game. Of the remaining 32 drives, 22 yielded a touchdown or field goal.

 
If the Chargers win tomorrow, I'll feel a lot better about their chances winning the AFC. I think they can go into Denver and upset the Broncos.

 
Christo said:
tikigods said:
If the Chargers win tomorrow, I'll feel a lot better about their chances winning the AFC. I think they can go into Denver and upset the Broncos.
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As opposed to how you'd feel about their chances to win the AFC if they lose tomorrow.
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If they lose tomorrow they're out of the playoffs. :shrug:

I'm sure you're aware that they beat the Colts and Denver during the regular season....but lost to Cincinnati by a touchdown.

 
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tikigods said:
Christo said:
tikigods said:
If the Chargers win tomorrow, I'll feel a lot better about their chances winning the AFC. I think they can go into Denver and upset the Broncos.
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As opposed to how you'd feel about their chances to win the AFC if they lose tomorrow.
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If they lose tomorrow they're out of the playoffs. :shrug:

I'm sure you're aware that they beat the Colts and Denver during the regular season....but lost to Cincinnati by a touchdown.
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What's the regular season gots to do with it brah

 
Dan Lambskin said:
tikigods said:
Christo said:
tikigods said:
If the Chargers win tomorrow, I'll feel a lot better about their chances winning the AFC. I think they can go into Denver and upset the Broncos.
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As opposed to how you'd feel about their chances to win the AFC if they lose tomorrow.
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If they lose tomorrow they're out of the playoffs. :shrug:

I'm sure you're aware that they beat the Colts and Denver during the regular season....but lost to Cincinnati by a touchdown.
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What's the regular season gots to do with it brah
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Nothing, really. I guess that having beaten a team gives them a psychological advantage because they've been able to prove that they can beat them. Manning is a notorious choker, especially in cold weather. No real logic, just gut feelings.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
If you're going to bet on the Chargers to win the AFC at 25-1, you may as well just bet them to win the Super Bowl at 50-1. If they don't win the AFC, you'd lose both bets anyway. If they do win the AFC, then you just do as fantasycurse suggested and hedge before the Super Bowl to lock in a profit.
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you can hedge in the AFC Championship too you know.

 
tommyGunZ said:
Man In The Box said:
tommyGunZ said:
As much as I'm a homer, I can't see SD winning on the road in Cincy, on the road in Denver, and then beating either Seattle of SF on a neutral field.

They can accomplish a couple of those, but all 3 is a pipe dream IMO.
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Now imagine if they'd have to win 4 games.
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I don't think beating NE or Indy is a problem, which is why I didn't mention it.
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I'm a Pats fan but they are easily one of the weakest teams with a bye. Too many injuries.

 
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