The School of Mock - Version 1.0 (1 Viewer)

[5Rings]

6. SF- Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon

Ngata is a guy whose stock I believe will rise significantly post-combine. I think his size/strength/speed numbers , along with his versatility - he could play nose, DT in a 4-3, or even play some end (frightening at his size) will make him a better fit than Williams for the 49ers. They need a nose tackle badly - this pick just makes sense.

I don't see it. What SF needs are playmakers on offense, and while a stud NT ties up 2 blockers and frees up the ILB to make plays....yada yada yada...he doesn't fill the biggest need or even BPA, IMO.SF has Sopogoa and Adams at NT, two young players who did pretty well last year, especially Ike. Ike missed his rookie year w/injuries and at times looked like a beast in the middle last year. The D wasn't bad, it was just on the field all the time last year due to a totally inept offense.

On a team that had the worst offensive numbers in its storied history, an offensive playmaker is a must. As much as it might be a reach, I think Vernon Davis might go here. I also think SF is a prime candidate to move down a few slots and go for Holmes.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Sorry in my previous post I forgot to say good job. Most of the picks looks look very solid. I don't pretend to know the needs of other teams as well as my fav team (Dallas). So, I tend to stick to what I know best.

IMO.....Dallas takes a LB or O-line in round one.

Carpenter

McNeil

Scott

Gilles

This would be our board if your picks were true from 1-17 (IMO).

Again, I didn't mean to jump to critize. I tend to focus in my own teams picks. My belief is that Dallas fills the S spot through FA as there are some quality players for cheap.

Thanks for the time and effort on the Mock. I always enjoy reading these.

No problem, man. I enjoy the input from homers because, as you mentioned, you know your team's needs better than others - likewise here. The input of Dallas fans (and guys like Bloom, who are draft kingpins) will help shape the next mock, in which I will likely have Dallas going for Ko Simpson or Marcus McNeill (unless they sign a free-agent S, but I have to believe Parcells wants to get more talent in the secondary.)

 

[Dave Baker]

Bulger doesn't have a lot of miles on him - I think they still like him as their QB for the next several years if he can avoid the damn injuries.

Yep, although it seems Bulger is likely to get hurt more and even if he is healthy, plenty predict Young will take 3-4 years to become a valid NFL starter anyway.

See, this I disagree with. He has the athletic talent to play the position, give him a year on the bench to learn the game, and get him in there. If he's really a four-year project, I cannot imagine anyone spending a high draft pick on him, maybe not even a first-round pick, period.

Young could be great or he could take a while. Being a great NFL QB is much more than being athletic or even smart. And if the Rams are unsure about Bulger's ability to stay healthy plus they think there's reasonable chance Young becomes great, it's a nice move.

 

[ffchamp1]

Nice job on the mock, looks good.

I will stand by what I have said before, Brick will go #1 and Young will drop. Young will drop because Bush will drop AND I believe he is overrated.

I know Hawk is the best LB, but I have a very hard time seeing him go at #5 when the Packers need Williams just as bad. Hell they need Williams, Hawk and Huff!

Tom

 

[Evilgrin 72]

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

Another very easy pick.  It appears more by the day that Edgerrin James is a goner - here is a guy available at #30 who is capable of starting from day 1.  Given the success of Marion Barber III in Dallas, and the fact that Maroney was considered the more talented back when the two played together for the Gophers, it bodes well for Maroney's success. He has good speed and good vision, and can definitely step in right away.  Would be a great fantasy pick too, if this happens

Given that logic, we can Lee Suggs to outplay his former VTech backup Kevin Jones, which hasn't happened (and wont). I'm not sold on Moroney just because he once looked better than a college teammate who's doing ok in the NFL. I need more if I'm going to spend a 1.4 on him. We'll see.

I never said it guarantees he'd be better, I said it bodes well for the future if a guy who played in the same system but was considered a slightly inferior talent had more success as a rookie than expected.I think Maroney would be a bonafide steal for Indy at 1.30.... when you say 1.4 are you talking about fantasy rookie drafts? If so, I don't think he'd be a bad pick at 1.4 if Indy drafted him, and cut bait with Edge. The TD potential for Maroney would be VERY high....

 

[aposulli]

And again - If /When Abraham is gone, these top defensive players will go right to the Top of the Jets wish list if they pick at the 4 spot.....

Abraham has just been franchise tagged. Though there is speculation that they might trade him, they would probably only do so to stockpile more picks, not to trade up.It is a fact that the Jets are in salary cap hell. They would be absolute toast as a franchise if they got Bush and he happened to be a bust (although thats a reach).

I'm not bashing the original attempt at a mock. I wouldnt be at all surprised if there were multiple trades involving the top 5 teams.

Sorry to keep the J-E-T-S (suck suck suck) chatter going. As a Pat fan, I too am sick of talking about them. Seems ridiculous to talk about a team that wont be competing for 5+ years

One more point of confusion about the original mock... DC Jimmy Willams to the Ravens? Havent they put enough effort into their D backfield inthe last few years? They have really neglected their linemen (O and D) in the last couple years. Ogden and the boys are getting old, and there is talk of moving Suggs to OLB. Anyhow, just last year they got Rolle to go with McAllister. Am I missing something? (Granted Williams is a terrific talent, and he might even go earlier)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

6. SF- Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon

Ngata is a guy whose stock I believe will rise significantly post-combine.  I think his size/strength/speed numbers , along with his versatility - he could play nose, DT in a 4-3, or even play some end (frightening at his size) will make him a better fit than Williams for the 49ers.  They need a nose tackle badly - this pick just makes sense.

I don't see it. What SF needs are playmakers on offense, and while a stud NT ties up 2 blockers and frees up the ILB to make plays....yada yada yada...he doesn't fill the biggest need or even BPA, IMO.SF has Sopogoa and Adams at NT, two young players who did pretty well last year, especially Ike. Ike missed his rookie year w/injuries and at times looked like a beast in the middle last year. The D wasn't bad, it was just on the field all the time last year due to a totally inept offense.

On a team that had the worst offensive numbers in its storied history, an offensive playmaker is a must. As much as it might be a reach, I think Vernon Davis might go here. I also think SF is a prime candidate to move down a few slots and go for Holmes.

Maybe. WR and CB are probably their biggest needs, but the value isn't here at this choice. I agree 100% that they might mvoe down for Holmes, and that would likely be their best move, but if they stay here, I like Ngata. His stock is going to be through the roof due to his size and speed - he has the ability to be a dominant DL for a decade or more. Bryant Young isn't getting any younger, and he's the only sure-fire stud they have on the line, that's why Ngata was slotted here.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Nice job on the mock, looks good.

I will stand by what I have said before, Brick will go #1 and Young will drop. Young will drop because Bush will drop AND I believe he is overrated.

I know Hawk is the best LB, but I have a very hard time seeing him go at #5 when the Packers need Williams just as bad. Hell they need Williams, Hawk and Huff!

Tom

Williams and Hawk were the two guys I looked at for Green Bay - it was almost a coin-toss.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

And again - If /When Abraham is gone, these top defensive players will go right to the Top of the Jets wish list if they pick at the 4 spot.....

Abraham has just been franchise tagged. Though there is speculation that they might trade him, they would probably only do so to stockpile more picks, not to trade up.It is a fact that the Jets are in salary cap hell. They would be absolute toast as a franchise if they got Bush and he happened to be a bust (although thats a reach).

I'm not bashing the original attempt at a mock. I wouldnt be at all surprised if there were multiple trades involving the top 5 teams.

Sorry to keep the J-E-T-S (suck suck suck) chatter going. As a Pat fan, I too am sick of talking about them. Seems ridiculous to talk about a team that wont be competing for 5+ years

One more point of confusion about the original mock... DC Jimmy Willams to the Ravens? Havent they put enough effort into their D backfield inthe last few years? They have really neglected their linemen (O and D) in the last couple years. Ogden and the boys are getting old, and there is talk of moving Suggs to OLB. Anyhow, just last year they got Rolle to go with McAllister. Am I missing something? (Granted Williams is a terrific talent, and he might even go earlier)

Ravens were a tough pick. I looked at LB here, OL, even RB and QB. They have a lot of places they could use help, and I realize they have Rolle and McAllister, but that's about it. Carter is pretty much done, Deion is gone, Reed has been hurt... they have absolutely no depth back there. Williams is a huge talent and can play safety if they need him to (McAllister/Rolle/Reed/Williams is a potentially scary backfield) for the time being, then transition to corner to replace McAllister as their shut-down guy of the future. It's by no means a cinch, but is a pick that makes more sense than on first glance.

 

[MLBrandow]

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

Another very easy pick.  It appears more by the day that Edgerrin James is a goner - here is a guy available at #30 who is capable of starting from day 1.  Given the success of Marion Barber III in Dallas, and the fact that Maroney was considered the more talented back when the two played together for the Gophers, it bodes well for Maroney's success. He has good speed and good vision, and can definitely step in right away.  Would be a great fantasy pick too, if this happens

Given that logic, we can Lee Suggs to outplay his former VTech backup Kevin Jones, which hasn't happened (and wont). I'm not sold on Moroney just because he once looked better than a college teammate who's doing ok in the NFL. I need more if I'm going to spend a 1.4 on him. We'll see.

baddabing! More corroborative evidence that shows that Maroney is bound to fall out of the first round.Overall, this was a pretty good mock. I'm glad you had the balls to actually predict a couple different picks than the norm. Whenever you can go "too easy" in mid-february, it's safe to say that that's more than likely NOT going to be the pick.

So, throw Vince Young and Jay Cutler under the bus in terms of going to Tennessee and Miami, respectively.

At that, nobody wants to read different analysis on the same old picks. That's why I really like this draft among other things. There are a lot of different picks in here with valid reasoning.

Couple other picks that bothered me.... Jean-Gilles is another guy I have pencilled in to fall a lot on draft day. I just don't see an overweight guy who is only very average 40-time per his weight, and with a questionable motor as a first round prospect.

Also, why LenDale White isn't going to Minnesota bothers me some. The Vikings already have three (if they cut Onterrio Smith, two) all-purpose backs like DeAngelo Williams, yet they have no homerun threat. Here you can obviously argue, well Moore and Fason simply aren't as good as Williams, yes but by how much? White is a completely different runner than either of the former, and that's why he projects as the pick to Minnesota much more often. Plus, given Brad Childress' past experience, it seems that he's going to want an up-the-gut threat to go with his perimeter receiving back.

Very solid analysis and draft. Like it a lot. For the Bucs pick, I disagree heavily because OT simply isn't that big of a need as people believe. If they were that distressed at tackle, they wouldn't have had their entire OL start all 16 games last season (the same 5 guys). The most dire need on the line is Right Guard, simply because Mahan is a center playing the position (and he's been playing it pretty decently), but if they decide to get rid of incumbent Wade and move Mahan over (which I think they will this offseason), they'll want to draft Guard, and not tackle, and neither in the first round. Plus, they've got a lot of young guys at Tackle who are still developing, and Kenyatta Walker WILL be back next year, and probably starting. He is in the last year of his contract in 2006, and he's only making $670K, a big bargain for a guy who has several years in the system that will be playing for a big salary. The reason a lot of people said Walker would be cut in 2005 was because his salary was $2.5M. That they held onto him tells me he is definitely going to be there in 2006, and as such, won't be replaced. As for Davis, he may be better suited at guard as some suggest, but he is an adequate LT for the Bucs because they are a left-handed offense (Simms, Cadillac). So being 330lbs and a fantastic run-blocker are more important on the left side than protecting pass-rushers, since that is Simms' strongside, not his blindside. Obviously, you'd like a guy that can do both, but considering the potential upgrade with what they have, there's not enough to justify anymore than a 2nd round pick at best.

 

[Warpig]

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

Another very easy pick.  It appears more by the day that Edgerrin James is a goner - here is a guy available at #30 who is capable of starting from day 1.  Given the success of Marion Barber III in Dallas, and the fact that Maroney was considered the more talented back when the two played together for the Gophers, it bodes well for Maroney's success. He has good speed and good vision, and can definitely step in right away.  Would be a great fantasy pick too, if this happens

Given that logic, we can Lee Suggs to outplay his former VTech backup Kevin Jones, which hasn't happened (and wont). I'm not sold on Moroney just because he once looked better than a college teammate who's doing ok in the NFL. I need more if I'm going to spend a 1.4 on him. We'll see.

I'm in the same boat as you. I have the 1.4 in a 32 team dynasty and I'm fairly certain I might be looking at Maroney. I'm not sure I wanna take him over Matt Leinert or Vince Young.

 

[5Rings]

6. SF- Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon

Ngata is a guy whose stock I believe will rise significantly post-combine. I think his size/strength/speed numbers , along with his versatility - he could play nose, DT in a 4-3, or even play some end (frightening at his size) will make him a better fit than Williams for the 49ers. They need a nose tackle badly - this pick just makes sense.

I don't see it. What SF needs are playmakers on offense, and while a stud NT ties up 2 blockers and frees up the ILB to make plays....yada yada yada...he doesn't fill the biggest need or even BPA, IMO.SF has Sopogoa and Adams at NT, two young players who did pretty well last year, especially Ike. Ike missed his rookie year w/injuries and at times looked like a beast in the middle last year. The D wasn't bad, it was just on the field all the time last year due to a totally inept offense.

On a team that had the worst offensive numbers in its storied history, an offensive playmaker is a must. As much as it might be a reach, I think Vernon Davis might go here. I also think SF is a prime candidate to move down a few slots and go for Holmes.

Maybe. WR and CB are probably their biggest needs, but the value isn't here at this choice. I agree 100% that they might mvoe down for Holmes, and that would likely be their best move, but if they stay here, I like Ngata. His stock is going to be through the roof due to his size and speed - he has the ability to be a dominant DL for a decade or more. Bryant Young isn't getting any younger, and he's the only sure-fire stud they have on the line, that's why Ngata was slotted here.

If you want to go D, its AJ, Mario, or even Huff--playmakers. As for replacing BY, he played DE almost exclusively last year and I could def see Mario going at 6/7 to SF...but not a NT when Ike and Adams are there.

I also think Vernon Davis' stock--like you predict Ngata's--will go through the roof at the combine and warrant a top 10 selection. A TE is a young QB's best friend, and after the collection of stiffs at TE last year and the lack of quality at WR...Davis fills a definite need.

Good mock, excellent reasoning and only really disagree with a few picks.

 

[cstu]

Best mock yet.

Pretty scary actually since it's almost exactly what I was thinking.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

Another very easy pick.  It appears more by the day that Edgerrin James is a goner - here is a guy available at #30 who is capable of starting from day 1.  Given the success of Marion Barber III in Dallas, and the fact that Maroney was considered the more talented back when the two played together for the Gophers, it bodes well for Maroney's success. He has good speed and good vision, and can definitely step in right away.  Would be a great fantasy pick too, if this happens

Given that logic, we can Lee Suggs to outplay his former VTech backup Kevin Jones, which hasn't happened (and wont). I'm not sold on Moroney just because he once looked better than a college teammate who's doing ok in the NFL. I need more if I'm going to spend a 1.4 on him. We'll see.

baddabing! More corroborative evidence that shows that Maroney is bound to fall out of the first round.Overall, this was a pretty good mock. I'm glad you had the balls to actually predict a couple different picks than the norm. Whenever you can go "too easy" in mid-february, it's safe to say that that's more than likely NOT going to be the pick.

So, throw Vince Young and Jay Cutler under the bus in terms of going to Tennessee and Miami, respectively.

At that, nobody wants to read different analysis on the same old picks. That's why I really like this draft among other things. There are a lot of different picks in here with valid reasoning.

Couple other picks that bothered me.... Jean-Gilles is another guy I have pencilled in to fall a lot on draft day. I just don't see an overweight guy who is only very average 40-time per his weight, and with a questionable motor as a first round prospect.

Also, why LenDale White isn't going to Minnesota bothers me some. The Vikings already have three (if they cut Onterrio Smith, two) all-purpose backs like DeAngelo Williams, yet they have no homerun threat. Here you can obviously argue, well Moore and Fason simply aren't as good as Williams, yes but by how much? White is a completely different runner than either of the former, and that's why he projects as the pick to Minnesota much more often. Plus, given Brad Childress' past experience, it seems that he's going to want an up-the-gut threat to go with his perimeter receiving back.

Very solid analysis and draft. Like it a lot. For the Bucs pick, I disagree heavily because OT simply isn't that big of a need as people believe. If they were that distressed at tackle, they wouldn't have had their entire OL start all 16 games last season (the same 5 guys). The most dire need on the line is Right Guard, simply because Mahan is a center playing the position (and he's been playing it pretty decently), but if they decide to get rid of incumbent Wade and move Mahan over (which I think they will this offseason), they'll want to draft Guard, and not tackle, and neither in the first round. Plus, they've got a lot of young guys at Tackle who are still developing, and Kenyatta Walker WILL be back next year, and probably starting. He is in the last year of his contract in 2006, and he's only making $670K, a big bargain for a guy who has several years in the system that will be playing for a big salary. The reason a lot of people said Walker would be cut in 2005 was because his salary was $2.5M. That they held onto him tells me he is definitely going to be there in 2006, and as such, won't be replaced. As for Davis, he may be better suited at guard as some suggest, but he is an adequate LT for the Bucs because they are a left-handed offense (Simms, Cadillac). So being 330lbs and a fantastic run-blocker are more important on the left side than protecting pass-rushers, since that is Simms' strongside, not his blindside. Obviously, you'd like a guy that can do both, but considering the potential upgrade with what they have, there's not enough to justify anymore than a 2nd round pick at best.

Thanks a lot, man. For Tampa, I saw them replacing Davis with Scott and moving Davis to G to replace Mahan, which I think would be a big upgrade for them. They may ultimately choose to go WR or CB instead though - but they don't have a ton of GLARING needs, which makes them tough to project. As a TB homer, who do you see them taking here?

 

[Verbal Kint]

Good mock, I like that you went in a few different directions.

My thoughts, if the NYJ do move up to #1, I think they pass on Bush and take Leinart . I know it's crazy to think that, but I think that with the issues with Pennington, they go for the franchise QB??? What would be interesting then is what the Saints do at #2? They wouldn't take Bush, because of McAllister, so I can see them grabbing Young, leaving Bush to fall into Tennessee's lap.

What you think about that?

I still don't see why everyone keeps calling Leinart a franchise QB. Yes he will be drafted high. But salary alone doesn't make someone a franchise QB. He has yet to prove that he can do anything when he is QB of a team that is subpar compared to it's rivals. There are at least 4 better players in the draft than him IMO anyway. You pay that kind of money for him at 1.01 you are paying for name recognition only. The Jets taking Leinart at 1.01 would be the dumbest draft move in their history, and believe me, they have an impressive resume of dumb draft moves already.

He is the best QB going into the draft. The Jets are so screwed up right now that they cannot blow this pick. I mean they can they are the Jets, but the front office being new will want as close to a sure thing as they can get. Your argument is that he is not that good because he performed at an elite level with elite players. Does that apply to Carson Palmer as well? Leinart will be a good fit for the Jets. I think whoever goes to N.O. as the QB is screwed be it either Leinart or Young. With Leinart the Jets have a future to build towards. With Bush you have the "is he an every down back", what about Martin... blah blah blah... not to mention the who plays QB, Brooks Bollinger?

Lienart is supposed to be a more polished QB than Palmer was going into the draft. How is he not a franchise QB?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

Another very easy pick.  It appears more by the day that Edgerrin James is a goner - here is a guy available at #30 who is capable of starting from day 1.  Given the success of Marion Barber III in Dallas, and the fact that Maroney was considered the more talented back when the two played together for the Gophers, it bodes well for Maroney's success. He has good speed and good vision, and can definitely step in right away.  Would be a great fantasy pick too, if this happens

Given that logic, we can Lee Suggs to outplay his former VTech backup Kevin Jones, which hasn't happened (and wont). I'm not sold on Moroney just because he once looked better than a college teammate who's doing ok in the NFL. I need more if I'm going to spend a 1.4 on him. We'll see.

baddabing! More corroborative evidence that shows that Maroney is bound to fall out of the first round.Overall, this was a pretty good mock. I'm glad you had the balls to actually predict a couple different picks than the norm. Whenever you can go "too easy" in mid-february, it's safe to say that that's more than likely NOT going to be the pick.

So, throw Vince Young and Jay Cutler under the bus in terms of going to Tennessee and Miami, respectively.

At that, nobody wants to read different analysis on the same old picks. That's why I really like this draft among other things. There are a lot of different picks in here with valid reasoning.

Couple other picks that bothered me.... Jean-Gilles is another guy I have pencilled in to fall a lot on draft day. I just don't see an overweight guy who is only very average 40-time per his weight, and with a questionable motor as a first round prospect.

Also, why LenDale White isn't going to Minnesota bothers me some. The Vikings already have three (if they cut Onterrio Smith, two) all-purpose backs like DeAngelo Williams, yet they have no homerun threat. Here you can obviously argue, well Moore and Fason simply aren't as good as Williams, yes but by how much? White is a completely different runner than either of the former, and that's why he projects as the pick to Minnesota much more often. Plus, given Brad Childress' past experience, it seems that he's going to want an up-the-gut threat to go with his perimeter receiving back.

Very solid analysis and draft. Like it a lot. For the Bucs pick, I disagree heavily because OT simply isn't that big of a need as people believe. If they were that distressed at tackle, they wouldn't have had their entire OL start all 16 games last season (the same 5 guys). The most dire need on the line is Right Guard, simply because Mahan is a center playing the position (and he's been playing it pretty decently), but if they decide to get rid of incumbent Wade and move Mahan over (which I think they will this offseason), they'll want to draft Guard, and not tackle, and neither in the first round. Plus, they've got a lot of young guys at Tackle who are still developing, and Kenyatta Walker WILL be back next year, and probably starting. He is in the last year of his contract in 2006, and he's only making $670K, a big bargain for a guy who has several years in the system that will be playing for a big salary. The reason a lot of people said Walker would be cut in 2005 was because his salary was $2.5M. That they held onto him tells me he is definitely going to be there in 2006, and as such, won't be replaced. As for Davis, he may be better suited at guard as some suggest, but he is an adequate LT for the Bucs because they are a left-handed offense (Simms, Cadillac). So being 330lbs and a fantastic run-blocker are more important on the left side than protecting pass-rushers, since that is Simms' strongside, not his blindside. Obviously, you'd like a guy that can do both, but considering the potential upgrade with what they have, there's not enough to justify anymore than a 2nd round pick at best.

Also, to address your other points, LenDale to Minnesota was something I considered strongly, I just think that in this scenario as it played out, that Williams has more star potential. I know Fason and Mewelde are more similar to Williams than White, but I just thought if Minensota had any faith in either guy to be their franchise back, they wouldn't be looking RB at all.Gilles could EASILY drop if he comes to the combine out of shape - I think I mentioned that. If he does, he's out of the first round and Pope is in to Chicago.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

6. SF- Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon

Ngata is a guy whose stock I believe will rise significantly post-combine.  I think his size/strength/speed numbers , along with his versatility - he could play nose, DT in a 4-3, or even play some end (frightening at his size) will make him a better fit than Williams for the 49ers.  They need a nose tackle badly - this pick just makes sense.

I don't see it. What SF needs are playmakers on offense, and while a stud NT ties up 2 blockers and frees up the ILB to make plays....yada yada yada...he doesn't fill the biggest need or even BPA, IMO.SF has Sopogoa and Adams at NT, two young players who did pretty well last year, especially Ike. Ike missed his rookie year w/injuries and at times looked like a beast in the middle last year. The D wasn't bad, it was just on the field all the time last year due to a totally inept offense.

On a team that had the worst offensive numbers in its storied history, an offensive playmaker is a must. As much as it might be a reach, I think Vernon Davis might go here. I also think SF is a prime candidate to move down a few slots and go for Holmes.

Maybe. WR and CB are probably their biggest needs, but the value isn't here at this choice. I agree 100% that they might mvoe down for Holmes, and that would likely be their best move, but if they stay here, I like Ngata. His stock is going to be through the roof due to his size and speed - he has the ability to be a dominant DL for a decade or more. Bryant Young isn't getting any younger, and he's the only sure-fire stud they have on the line, that's why Ngata was slotted here.

If you want to go D, its AJ, Mario, or even Huff--playmakers. As for replacing BY, he played DE almost exclusively last year and I could def see Mario going at 6/7 to SF...but not a NT when Ike and Adams are there.

I also think Vernon Davis' stock--like you predict Ngata's--will go through the roof at the combine and warrant a top 10 selection. A TE is a young QB's best friend, and after the collection of stiffs at TE last year and the lack of quality at WR...Davis fills a definite need.

Good mock, excellent reasoning and only really disagree with a few picks.

Thanks, man. I also have Davis in the top 10 to Arizona. Mario could go to SF also, I just saw them as the team most likely to take Ngata, as I personally believe Ngata fits best as a 3-4 NT and the 49ers play a 3-4. I think they probably trade down though.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Best mock yet.

Pretty scary actually since it's almost exactly what I was thinking.

Thanks a lot, bro.I gotta run now, but I will bump this tomorrow and discuss further, so if you have questions/comments, let 'em rip - will respond tomorrow.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great stuff EG, thanks!

 

[Chaos Commish]

on the mock.

Doesn't look anything like mine.

On the Bing pick: As a Cowboy fan who has watched tons of USC football-- I don't hate it. You're right. He has excellent range and could be a free safety if asked to be. I like him better than Simpson, so don't make THAT swap in version 2.0. Simpson is a strong safety, a tackler, a mini-Roy. They're not a good combo.

That being said, a different type of safety alltogether is probably the best fit. A pure free safety like Jason Allen or Pat Watkins (my preference in the 2nd round). There's a wealth of DBs in this draft who could help Dallas. I hope they wait for round two and get the best OL in round one. If not, they could still wait for a safety and get a DT or ILB. They are a little weak in the middle of that defense.

If they traded down for D'Qwell that would make me happy. I don't like any of these receivers. They're just not first round quality.

 

[Ridgelake]

Evilgrin. Good stuff.

I like the Demeco Ryans pick to the Giants. At only 225 lbs, he fits a 4-3 MUCH better than a 3-4.

As a Dallas "homer", I'll add my voice to those comments about Bing. I agree with your analysis that he may end up as the #2 safety behind Huff. He is a bigtime playmaker and that is something that Parcells covets. The problem with Bing, however, (as has been pointed out already), is that he is too similar to Roy Williams. They are both strong safeties. Polamalu, Reed, and Taylor are strong safety as well. They all do their best work creating havoc in the box.

Dallas needs a deep safety. A coverage safety. A free safety. A QB of the secondary. That is not a position that is taken in the first round. A playmaking havoc-creating guy, yes. A center fielder, no.

Who would be better at reading offenses, diagnosing pass paterns, and getting other guys into position? A rookie strong safety converting to free safety or an experienced vet like a Chris Hope or a Corey Chavous? The answer is obviously the latter, and thats how I think Dallas will solve its safety problem.

Now who will Dallas draft? Its got to be a RT, doesnt it? That position held the entire offense hostage last year, forcing them into max-protect schemes all the time. Thats gotta be the first round pick, right? Right? RIGHT?????

I doubt it. In 19 seasons as a head coach, Parcells' teams have never drafted a tackle in the first round. Parcells stated in a press conference during the season that tackles and WRs have the highest bust rates of first rounders. Its much more likely that the RT problem is addressed with a FA like a Tom Ashworth or John Runyan. Notwithstanding a FA pickup, I'd be surprised if Dallas didnt draft Oline in rounds 2 and/or 3. I also think McNeill is a Flozell Adams clone and will get some consideration.

So they draft a WR, right? Keyshawn and Glenn are older than dirt! I doubt it. See Parcells' comments on first round OT and WR bust rates. Plus, this year's WR crop is poor. Again, not likely.

Ok, so no safety, OT, or WR in round 1, who do they draft?

Defensive front seven. WHAT?, They got Ware, Spears, Canty, James and all of them! Yep. And they need a complement to Ware at OLB, a NT under 30, and wouldn't mind an upgrade at the other ILB spot opposite James. Couple that with the fact that Parcells' teams have drafted defensive front seven more than any other spots in the first round with the values likely to be on the board at 18, and you have one of 3 likely picks.

1) Bobby Carpenter

2) Gabe Watson

3) Manny Lawson

Carpenter has the versatility to play multiple positions in a 3-4. He has the size that Parcells covets (~255 lbs).

Watson is a space eater that every 3-4 needs. Dallas' current NTs are Jason Ferguson, LaRoi Glover, and Thomas Johnson. Only Ferguson is over 300 lbs. Only Johnson, a converted DE undrafted rookie free agent last year, is under 30. Glover has personally stated that he doesnt think he will be back next year. Does a 30+ year old and a former rookie free agent seem like depth at a critical position for the 3-4? Not to me either. Thats where Watson comes in. It should be noted that Dallas spent a LONG time talking with him at the Senior Bowl. Know who they spent a LONG time talking with last year? DeMarcus Ware. Don't be surprised if Dallas calls Watson's name come April.

Lawson is a converted 4-3 DE speed rusher who Dallas also spent a lot of time talking to at the Senior Bowl. If Carpenter is off the board at 18 (and also assuming Hawk and Greenway are long gone), Lawson might be the guy for Dallas. Personally, I'd like to see them try to trade down if both Carpenter and Watson are gone, but Lawson would be a likely pick if they can't.

I'll throw out 1 more name. If somehow Vernon Davis drops to 18, watch out. Parcells loves TEs and pairing him with Witten would cause defenses all kinds of fits. In effect, he would be the additional explosive playmaker that this offense could really use. He probably won't be available, but you never know.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I doubt it. In 19 seasons as a head coach, Parcells' teams have never drafted a tackle in the first round. Parcells stated in a press conference during the season that tackles and WRs have the highest bust rates of first rounders. Its much more likely that the RT problem is addressed with a FA like a Tom Ashworth or John Runyan. Notwithstanding a FA pickup, I'd be surprised if Dallas didnt draft Oline in rounds 2 and/or 3. I also think McNeill is a Flozell Adams clone and will get some consideration.

We're mostly on the same page.Parcells with the Giants, drafts 83-89...

84 and 88 he drafted first round tackles

89 a first round guard. All three were busts, I think.

With the Pats no 1st round OL.

With the Jets only one first round pick in three years because he gave one up for Mawae-- a center.

I'd love a link to the transcript of this presser. I've been looking for it.

They need one of the OTs. Anything else is foolish.

 

[Ridgelake]

Parcells with the Giants, drafts 83-89...

84 and 88 he drafted first round tackles

89 a first round guard.  All three were busts, I think.

With the Pats no 1st round OL.

With the Jets only one first round pick in three years because he gave one up for Mawae-- a center. 

I'd love a link to the transcript of this presser.  I've been looking for it.

They need one of the OTs.  Anything else is foolish.

CC, Parcells did not draft a first round tackle at any time. In 84, at 1/27 the Giants picked guard William Roberts. In 88, they went Eric Moore, G, at 1/10. in 89, Brian Williams, C at 1/18. Those are the only first round offensive linemen.As for the presser, I doubt that you will find a transcript. You might be able to find the audio tape at Dallascowboys.com. I believe it was during the week of the Rams game (week 17) that he made those comments. Here is a link that would likely have the audio. Link

I agree that OT is by far the most important need for Dallas. They truly were held hostage by their tackles last year after Flozell went down. But I fully expect them to go the FA route for the starter. Next year is too important to Parcells to rely on a rookie at tackle.

Edit: Added the link.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Parcells with the Giants, drafts 83-89...

84 and 88 he drafted first round tackles

89 a first round guard. All three were busts, I think.

With the Pats no 1st round OL.

With the Jets only one first round pick in three years because he gave one up for Mawae-- a center.

I'd love a link to the transcript of this presser. I've been looking for it.

They need one of the OTs. Anything else is foolish.

CC, Parcells did not draft a first round tackle at any time. In 84, at 1/27 the Giants picked guard William Roberts. In 88, they went Eric Moore, G, at 1/10. in 89, Brian Williams, C at 1/18. Those are the only first round offensive linemen.As for the presser, I doubt that you will find a transcript. You might be able to find the audio tape at Dallascowboys.com. I believe it was during the week of the Rams game (week 17) that he made those comments. Here is a link that would likely have the audio. Link

I agree that OT is by far the most important need for Dallas. They truly were held hostage by their tackles last year after Flozell went down. But I fully expect them to go the FA route for the starter. Next year is too important to Parcells to rely on a rookie at tackle.

Edit: Added the link.

Well okay but... nfl.com lists two of those guards as draft day tackles. I'm not arguing. I really don't care. I just hope that Parcells is smart enough to recognize the available tackles this year are unusually talented. He "got by" (was held hostage) by a sixth round slug last year who most thought would be UFA after the draft. I wouldn't compare Petitti to any of the top five tackles in this draft and Dallas can probably have their pick of two or three remaining when it's their turn. With Flozell back, we're not talking about a rookie at LT. Rookies hold up fine at RT. Several "higher draft picks" did last year and a couple were decent at LT-- better than anything Dallas had.

Further, great LTs are not found in free agency. Teams hang on to them. Dallas needs one for the future. McNeill, Scott or Winston... and they pass-- I'll call that foolish.

 

[Ridgelake]

Well okay but... nfl.com lists two of those guards as draft day tackles.

Curious, because nfl.com lists those guys as guards here

 

[Chaos Commish]

Well okay but... nfl.com lists two of those guards as draft day tackles.

Curious, because nfl.com lists those guys as guards here

Like I said. I don't care. I think we see the situation in Dallas identically. I'd rather you make the first draft pick this year instead of JJ or Bill.

 

[Texasmouth]

Evilgrin,

This is one of the best mocks I have ever seen on this board, and I can literally take issue with only one of your picks, and thats Bing to DAL, as I think you are overrating his "playmaking" abilities against the passing game, and taht Dallas would be incredibly vulnerable on the deep third of the field with he and Roy at S.

EXCELLENT JOB.

Thanks, man. I had a feeling that the Bing pick would draw the most heat, I am just higher on the guy than most. I can see easily see Dallas taking Jonathan Scott, Marcus McNeill, Chad Jackson, Broderick Bunkley, or Ko Simpson with that pick as well, and it may change after the combine. I know Bing has struggled some in pass coverage, but he's a great hitter, excellent in run support (which Parcells loves), and just seems to be able to put himself in position to make big plays.

Sorry, by reading what you just said about Bing, he sounds exactly like Roy Williams. Now, I love Roy Williams and all, but the last thing on earth we need is a guy who:

has struggled some in pass coverage

 

[Texasmouth]

Who would be better at reading offenses, diagnosing pass paterns, and getting other guys into position? A rookie strong safety converting to free safety or an experienced vet like a Chris Hope or a Corey Chavous? The answer is obviously the latter, and thats how I think Dallas will solve its safety problem.

Nothing would make me happier than JJ throwing some cash at Chavous. Has anyone seen this guy on NFL network? He is a draft expert and seems to know more about football than most people I have ever heard. He would be the perfect veteran addition to a young defense. He is great in coverage and he is a big hitter in his own right. He actually reminds me a lot of Darren Woodsen.

 

[Shrek]

Good mock, I like that you went in a few different directions.

My thoughts, if the NYJ do move up to #1, I think they pass on Bush and take Leinart  .  I know it's crazy to think that, but I think that with the issues with Pennington, they go for the franchise QB??? What would be interesting then is what the Saints do at #2?  They wouldn't take Bush, because of McAllister, so I can see them grabbing Young, leaving Bush to fall into Tennessee's lap.

What you think about that? 

I still don't see why everyone keeps calling Leinart a franchise QB. Yes he will be drafted high. But salary alone doesn't make someone a franchise QB. He has yet to prove that he can do anything when he is QB of a team that is subpar compared to it's rivals. There are at least 4 better players in the draft than him IMO anyway. You pay that kind of money for him at 1.01 you are paying for name recognition only. The Jets taking Leinart at 1.01 would be the dumbest draft move in their history, and believe me, they have an impressive resume of dumb draft moves already.

He is the best QB going into the draft. The Jets are so screwed up right now that they cannot blow this pick. I mean they can they are the Jets, but the front office being new will want as close to a sure thing as they can get. Your argument is that he is not that good because he performed at an elite level with elite players. Does that apply to Carson Palmer as well? Leinart will be a good fit for the Jets. I think whoever goes to N.O. as the QB is screwed be it either Leinart or Young. With Leinart the Jets have a future to build towards. With Bush you have the "is he an every down back", what about Martin... blah blah blah... not to mention the who plays QB, Brooks Bollinger?

Lienart is supposed to be a more polished QB than Palmer was going into the draft. How is he not a franchise QB?

Link?Seriously, this is conjecture, not fact.

IMO Palmer going into the draft >>>> Leinart going into the draft

 

[Dave Baker]

Good mock, I like that you went in a few different directions.

My thoughts, if the NYJ do move up to #1, I think they pass on Bush and take Leinart  .  I know it's crazy to think that, but I think that with the issues with Pennington, they go for the franchise QB??? What would be interesting then is what the Saints do at #2?  They wouldn't take Bush, because of McAllister, so I can see them grabbing Young, leaving Bush to fall into Tennessee's lap.

What you think about that? 

I still don't see why everyone keeps calling Leinart a franchise QB. Yes he will be drafted high. But salary alone doesn't make someone a franchise QB. He has yet to prove that he can do anything when he is QB of a team that is subpar compared to it's rivals. There are at least 4 better players in the draft than him IMO anyway. You pay that kind of money for him at 1.01 you are paying for name recognition only. The Jets taking Leinart at 1.01 would be the dumbest draft move in their history, and believe me, they have an impressive resume of dumb draft moves already.

He is the best QB going into the draft. The Jets are so screwed up right now that they cannot blow this pick. I mean they can they are the Jets, but the front office being new will want as close to a sure thing as they can get. Your argument is that he is not that good because he performed at an elite level with elite players. Does that apply to Carson Palmer as well? Leinart will be a good fit for the Jets. I think whoever goes to N.O. as the QB is screwed be it either Leinart or Young. With Leinart the Jets have a future to build towards. With Bush you have the "is he an every down back", what about Martin... blah blah blah... not to mention the who plays QB, Brooks Bollinger?

Lienart is supposed to be a more polished QB than Palmer was going into the draft. How is he not a franchise QB?

Link?Seriously, this is conjecture, not fact.

IMO Palmer going into the draft >>>> Leinart going into the draft

Actually, I also recall Palmer being considered as less polished than Leinart at similar stages of the game. Palmer, though, had the arm strength. But Leinart is considered to be one of the most polished QBs to come out in a while.

 

[3nOut]

I would be surprised to see Chicago take a guard that high even though Brown is old. TE makes more sense to me, i know its becoming a cliche in mocks, but its a case where the depth of the draft class fits the team need perfectly.

I have been on the chicago drafting a TE bandwagon myself, but if only one TE goes this far, they may wait until the second to land their TE and go best talent available in the first. If not OL, then DB to improve their depth.

 

[Bob Magaw]

If the Vikings actually get DeAngelo Williams, I better have a clean pair of shorts handy.

just to be safe, you can put on a pair of depends sat morning... i think you should be able to take them off no later than the #13 BAL pick...* here is a rare case where you would probably like nothing more than to soil those shorts, though...

 

[MLBrandow]

As a TB homer, who do you see them taking here?

I've got my money riding on Sinorice Moss at No.23, whether he's the first WR taken or the 4th. Galloway's about to crash and burn, and the Gruden O needs that speed threat badly. Plus going up against Steve Smith twice a year is probably pissing Gruden off enough to want one of his own.... I have a full write-out in my latest mock.... http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=226570

If he's gone, it would depend who falls. There are a lot of higher up guys that they'd like to get their hands on. If Bunkley were to somehow fall, I'd have to believe they might bite on him, or one of the other penetrating DTs, as I see that being a need this offseason. Of course, I also see them landing Jonathan Lewis from VT in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Davis may well move to guard, but I don't see it. People say he is, but if he wasn't good enough to outplay Sean Mahan, I don't believe he will. If The Bucs can't land Davin Joseph in the 2nd and Moss is gone, depending on how the chips fall, they may try to trade down to the bottom of the first and reach for him. If they can't get him, I think they keep the same line they had last season, and then draft Tackle in the 1st next year, since Kenyatta Walkerwill be gone.

You have to remember as well, they will be drafting to replace Walker if he underperforms, not Davis. Although Davis plays LT, it's the RT that protects the blindside for the Bucs.

Also, next year they will be drafting CB early as well to prep for Barber/Kellys departure probably in '09 or '10, much like the Eagles did with Taylor / Vincent.

They really have some key needs starting next year, but this year they don't, so it depends who falls, but my money's on Moss by a lot.

 

[Bob Magaw]

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

Another very easy pick.  It appears more by the day that Edgerrin James is a goner - here is a guy available at #30 who is capable of starting from day 1.  Given the success of Marion Barber III in Dallas, and the fact that Maroney was considered the more talented back when the two played together for the Gophers, it bodes well for Maroney's success. He has good speed and good vision, and can definitely step in right away.  Would be a great fantasy pick too, if this happens

Given that logic, we can Lee Suggs to outplay his former VTech backup Kevin Jones, which hasn't happened (and wont). I'm not sold on Moroney just because he once looked better than a college teammate who's doing ok in the NFL. I need more if I'm going to spend a 1.4 on him. We'll see.

baddabing! More corroborative evidence that shows that Maroney is bound to fall out of the first round.Overall, this was a pretty good mock. I'm glad you had the balls to actually predict a couple different picks than the norm. Whenever you can go "too easy" in mid-february, it's safe to say that that's more than likely NOT going to be the pick.

So, throw Vince Young and Jay Cutler under the bus in terms of going to Tennessee and Miami, respectively.

At that, nobody wants to read different analysis on the same old picks. That's why I really like this draft among other things. There are a lot of different picks in here with valid reasoning.

Couple other picks that bothered me.... Jean-Gilles is another guy I have pencilled in to fall a lot on draft day. I just don't see an overweight guy who is only very average 40-time per his weight, and with a questionable motor as a first round prospect.

Also, why LenDale White isn't going to Minnesota bothers me some. The Vikings already have three (if they cut Onterrio Smith, two) all-purpose backs like DeAngelo Williams, yet they have no homerun threat. Here you can obviously argue, well Moore and Fason simply aren't as good as Williams, yes but by how much? White is a completely different runner than either of the former, and that's why he projects as the pick to Minnesota much more often. Plus, given Brad Childress' past experience, it seems that he's going to want an up-the-gut threat to go with his perimeter receiving back.

Very solid analysis and draft. Like it a lot. For the Bucs pick, I disagree heavily because OT simply isn't that big of a need as people believe. If they were that distressed at tackle, they wouldn't have had their entire OL start all 16 games last season (the same 5 guys). The most dire need on the line is Right Guard, simply because Mahan is a center playing the position (and he's been playing it pretty decently), but if they decide to get rid of incumbent Wade and move Mahan over (which I think they will this offseason), they'll want to draft Guard, and not tackle, and neither in the first round. Plus, they've got a lot of young guys at Tackle who are still developing, and Kenyatta Walker WILL be back next year, and probably starting. He is in the last year of his contract in 2006, and he's only making $670K, a big bargain for a guy who has several years in the system that will be playing for a big salary. The reason a lot of people said Walker would be cut in 2005 was because his salary was $2.5M. That they held onto him tells me he is definitely going to be there in 2006, and as such, won't be replaced. As for Davis, he may be better suited at guard as some suggest, but he is an adequate LT for the Bucs because they are a left-handed offense (Simms, Cadillac). So being 330lbs and a fantastic run-blocker are more important on the left side than protecting pass-rushers, since that is Simms' strongside, not his blindside. Obviously, you'd like a guy that can do both, but considering the potential upgrade with what they have, there's not enough to justify anymore than a 2nd round pick at best.

i don't think it follows that because TB started the same five OL all season necessarily means none of them are beyond upgrading...its possible that you are right (you give cogent analysis of more direct kind on individual players elsewhere)... but if you were, i don't think it would be due to THAT reason...

simply... its not a mutually exclusive proposition to state that maybe not all five OL are blue chip, elite talents... but they were the best they had (presumably the reserves were worse).

* also not sure i agree with point upthread about maroney & suggs... suggs has looked pretty good when healthy... its just that he is rarely healthy... blown acl in college... stenosis (narrowing of internal spinal column that can lead to chronic, debilitating back problems & nerve-related pain) diagnosis & blown shoulder before the draft... & perpetual injuries with CLE... & the browns in the butch davis era & with crennell thus far aren't exactly the chiefs or seahawks as far as run blocking... & who have their QBs been to keep defenses from stacking 8 in the box?

IF suggs had been healthy, & gone to the chiefs, we might have a completely different opinion of him (i think he still has ncaa record for consecutive games with a rushing TD... something like 27-28?)... there were a lot of indications that suggs was an injury risk BEFORE his draft... maroney is expected to get a clean bill of health at combine & personal workouts leading up to draft...

 

[Foosball God]

I'd be very surprised if the Lions go D-line with their 1st round pick.

 

[MLBrandow]

i don't think it follows that because TB started the same five OL all season necessarily means none of them are beyond upgrading...its possible that you are right (you give cogent analysis of more direct kind on individual players elsewhere)... but if you were, i don't think it would be due to THAT reason...simply... its not a mutually exclusive proposition to state that maybe not all five OL are blue chip, elite talents... but they were the best they had.

It was the best they had, but if you remember (probably only the guru buc fans would know this.... but that they constantly shift their OL because it's so bad in recent years. The fact that they held on to the same 5 guys all year is a great sign (can't remember the last time that happened.... maybe Capella knows... pretty sure it's been a LONG time). Of all the guys, I'd consider only Mahan at Center (if he goes there) and Dan Buenning to be "blue-chip" caliber players. The rest are "average starter." At that, why spend a first round pick to marginally upgrade a position you have a lot of young guys at? They will have Jeb Terry at Guard and Chris Colmer at Tackle, going into their 2nd and 3rd years respectively. I don't know if they believe Terry will be a startable guard, but he makes a very good backup at the least. On Colmer, I think they have faith in him to develop into a starter, but I could be wrong.The problem is that they have no one to takeover for McFarland, who WILL be cut, and they have no one to take over for Brooks if he goes in the next few years. They also don't have anyone to replace Galloway (well sinorice moss if you count that draft pick), and no one to take over for either CB, but I think they have at least 3 more good years out of Barber and Kelly. And they need immediate help at NB, so I could see them spending a 3/4 pick potentially on a CB developmental project with a lot of upside. Maybe Zemaitis if he falls.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Good mock, I like that you went in a few different directions.

My thoughts, if the NYJ do move up to #1, I think they pass on Bush and take Leinart  .  I know it's crazy to think that, but I think that with the issues with Pennington, they go for the franchise QB??? What would be interesting then is what the Saints do at #2?  They wouldn't take Bush, because of McAllister, so I can see them grabbing Young, leaving Bush to fall into Tennessee's lap.

What you think about that? 

I still don't see why everyone keeps calling Leinart a franchise QB. Yes he will be drafted high. But salary alone doesn't make someone a franchise QB. He has yet to prove that he can do anything when he is QB of a team that is subpar compared to it's rivals. There are at least 4 better players in the draft than him IMO anyway. You pay that kind of money for him at 1.01 you are paying for name recognition only. The Jets taking Leinart at 1.01 would be the dumbest draft move in their history, and believe me, they have an impressive resume of dumb draft moves already.

He is the best QB going into the draft. The Jets are so screwed up right now that they cannot blow this pick. I mean they can they are the Jets, but the front office being new will want as close to a sure thing as they can get. Your argument is that he is not that good because he performed at an elite level with elite players. Does that apply to Carson Palmer as well? Leinart will be a good fit for the Jets. I think whoever goes to N.O. as the QB is screwed be it either Leinart or Young. With Leinart the Jets have a future to build towards. With Bush you have the "is he an every down back", what about Martin... blah blah blah... not to mention the who plays QB, Brooks Bollinger?

Lienart is supposed to be a more polished QB than Palmer was going into the draft. How is he not a franchise QB?

Link?Seriously, this is conjecture, not fact.

IMO Palmer going into the draft >>>> Leinart going into the draft

Actually, I also recall Palmer being considered as less polished than Leinart at similar stages of the game. Palmer, though, had the arm strength. But Leinart is considered to be one of the most polished QBs to come out in a while.

i don't have links, but if you take a look at multiple mocks on web & scouting reports contained therein... leinert is constantly compared to guys like manning & brady, in terms of his intangibles, football IQ, poise, accuracy, pocket sense... he doesn't have a huge arm... but neither do those guys... if you think manning & brady are "franchise"-type QBs... those are the types of players he is being compared to by the scouts...i have also heard plenty of scouts address his arm strength specifically (mike mayock comes to mind, but there are others... possibly dan pompei of sporting news?) that insist his arm is plenty strong & he can make all the throws needed to succeed in the NFL... again, manning hardly has a cannon strapped to the side of his body... but you don't hear many scouts (anymore) questioning his arm strength...

he does anticipate extraordinarily well, makes excellent decisions with the ball & almost always puts it in a good/the right place.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Well okay but... nfl.com lists two of those guards as draft day tackles.

Curious, because nfl.com lists those guys as guards here

Like I said. I don't care. I think we see the situation in Dallas identically. I'd rather you make the first draft pick this year instead of JJ or Bill.

Thanks a lot for the input, guys. My logic behind the Bing to Dallas pick was primarily predicated on the fact that Bing had some success playing next to Polamalu in the USC secondary, IIRC, so I thought he could fit into Dallas' scheme. He seems to have a nose for the ball and I thought he might complement Williams nicely. Plus, he gives them depth at both safety spots, should Williams go down. I will likely give the Dallas pick the most attention in the next version, as it seems to have aroused the most ire/discussion. My next pick would have been an OT, but you guys bring up good points about Parcells and his propensity to (not) draft first-round tackles. The more I look at it, the more a guy like Bobby Carpenter might make sense. I think he's cut out for a 3-4 defense, he's got first-round talent, and he's a Parcells kind of high-motor player.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Evilgrin,

This is one of the best mocks I have ever seen on this board, and I can literally take issue with only one of your picks, and thats Bing to DAL, as I think you are overrating his "playmaking" abilities against the passing game, and taht Dallas would be incredibly vulnerable on the deep third of the field with he and Roy at S.

EXCELLENT JOB.

Thanks, man. I had a feeling that the Bing pick would draw the most heat, I am just higher on the guy than most. I can see easily see Dallas taking Jonathan Scott, Marcus McNeill, Chad Jackson, Broderick Bunkley, or Ko Simpson with that pick as well, and it may change after the combine. I know Bing has struggled some in pass coverage, but he's a great hitter, excellent in run support (which Parcells loves), and just seems to be able to put himself in position to make big plays.

Sorry, by reading what you just said about Bing, he sounds exactly like Roy Williams. Now, I love Roy Williams and all, but the last thing on earth we need is a guy who:

has struggled some in pass coverage

He has, but I think that's something that can be rectified, which is why I projected him here. When Polamalu came out, he had a similar rep - great in run support, high-motor player, but questions as to whether or not he could adequately cover NFL WRs or TEs. He's proved he has the talent to do so, and I imagine Bing, with some additional coaching, could be solid in pass coverage too - he has the size and speed, like Troy, to overcome this. I just like Bing more than most, but with all the comments I've seen from the Dallas homers, I will have to re-think that choice.

 

[Please See Mine]

Overall I like this a lot, however there is no way that the Eagles will pick a WR at 14.

I realize that it is completely logical and your case is solid, but Reid just does not value WR's that much. All indications here are that the pick will be a defensive lineman.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I'd be very surprised if the Lions go D-line with their 1st round pick.

I think they have to address the defensive side of the ball in round 1. That one was seriously a tough pick, but after staring at their depth chart for about 10 minutes, I finally decided on Redding as the player they'd likely most want to upgrade, hence Hali at 1.9. This could go a lot of different ways, though - an OL is certainly a possibility, but with Ferguson and Justice already off the board in my mock, I didn't see the value at OT in their spot. As I mentioned, they very easily may trade down from this spot with an OT in mind, but at #9, to me, it boiled down to Greenway and Hali as the two best talents available at need positions. The depth of LB in this draft, coupled with the premium typically placed on pass rushers on draft day, led me to the Hali pick.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Overall I like this a lot, however there is no way that the Eagles will pick a WR at 14.

I realize that it is completely logical and your case is solid, but Reid just does not value WR's that much. All indications here are that the pick will be a defensive lineman.

I came very close to projecting Kiwanuka or Bunkley to Philadelphia at #14. I have to admit I'm no expert on Reid's draft tendencies, but I just saw this as a unique situation for the Eagles to be in dire need of a WR and no receivers having been taken at this point. It's not often that at #14, a team has its pick of the entire WR lot, so I thought it might be an ideal spot to grab a top talent at that position. Odds are, one of these "less thought of" receivers will prove to be a star, and Holmes has as good a chance as anyone - plus, he's the most likely to be able to start right away.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Good mock, I like that you went in a few different directions.

My thoughts, if the NYJ do move up to #1, I think they pass on Bush and take Leinart . I know it's crazy to think that, but I think that with the issues with Pennington, they go for the franchise QB??? What would be interesting then is what the Saints do at #2? They wouldn't take Bush, because of McAllister, so I can see them grabbing Young, leaving Bush to fall into Tennessee's lap.

What you think about that?

I still don't see why everyone keeps calling Leinart a franchise QB. Yes he will be drafted high. But salary alone doesn't make someone a franchise QB. He has yet to prove that he can do anything when he is QB of a team that is subpar compared to it's rivals. There are at least 4 better players in the draft than him IMO anyway. You pay that kind of money for him at 1.01 you are paying for name recognition only. The Jets taking Leinart at 1.01 would be the dumbest draft move in their history, and believe me, they have an impressive resume of dumb draft moves already.

He is the best QB going into the draft. The Jets are so screwed up right now that they cannot blow this pick. I mean they can they are the Jets, but the front office being new will want as close to a sure thing as they can get. Your argument is that he is not that good because he performed at an elite level with elite players. Does that apply to Carson Palmer as well? Leinart will be a good fit for the Jets. I think whoever goes to N.O. as the QB is screwed be it either Leinart or Young. With Leinart the Jets have a future to build towards. With Bush you have the "is he an every down back", what about Martin... blah blah blah... not to mention the who plays QB, Brooks Bollinger?

Lienart is supposed to be a more polished QB than Palmer was going into the draft. How is he not a franchise QB?

Link?Seriously, this is conjecture, not fact.

IMO Palmer going into the draft >>>> Leinart going into the draft

Actually, I also recall Palmer being considered as less polished than Leinart at similar stages of the game. Palmer, though, had the arm strength. But Leinart is considered to be one of the most polished QBs to come out in a while.

Thanks for the backup. Though I've heard it numerous times, I would have been hard pressed to find a link. And Shrek's original issue with Leinart was that he benefitted from the system. But Palmer played in the exact same system with the same players. If Leinart is even on par with Palmer, he should be considered a franchise QB, hands down.

 

[WampusCat43]

24. CIN - Ko Simpson, S, South CarolinaProbably would have taken Bunkley here after passing on Travis Johnson last year, but Denver wisely saw this possibility and snapped him up, leaving Cincinnati to address their other need spot. Madieu Williams is a rising star, but Kaeshivarn sucks antelope nuts and they have no depth at safety. Simpson is a boom/bust type of player with little experience, but great upside, and will carry a first-round grade if he runs a 4.5 at the combine.

When I saw you predicted 'safety' here my first thought was 'Kaesviharn is finally going to be replaced. Yes!' (Good effort on the spelling, btw)."Sucks antelope nuts" is...original. I'd like to see that on his Topps card

 

[Evilgrin 72]

24. CIN - Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina

Probably would have taken Bunkley here after passing on Travis Johnson last year, but Denver wisely saw this possibility and snapped him up, leaving Cincinnati to address their other need spot.  Madieu Williams is a rising star, but Kaeshivarn sucks antelope nuts and they have no depth at safety.  Simpson is a boom/bust type of player with little experience, but great upside, and will carry a first-round grade if he runs a 4.5 at the combine.

When I saw you predicted 'safety' here my first thought was 'Kaesviharn is finally going to be replaced. Yes!' (Good effort on the spelling, btw)."Sucks antelope nuts" is...original. I'd like to see that on his Topps card

K-A-E-S-V-I-H-A-R-NI threw a little jab in on all the Steelers' division rivals' picks, just for a few laughs.

 

[Ridgelake]

The more I look at it, the more a guy like Bobby Carpenter might make sense. I think he's cut out for a 3-4 defense, he's got first-round talent, and he's a Parcells kind of high-motor player.

Ahhhh, another convert. Now to get the mediots to understand.......

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The more I look at it, the more a guy like Bobby Carpenter might make sense.  I think he's cut out for a 3-4 defense, he's got first-round talent, and he's a Parcells kind of high-motor player.

Ahhhh, another convert. Now to get the mediots to understand.......

I think Carpenter is ideal ina 3-4, but with relatively few teams running it, it limits where I thought he might go as a first-round pick. The Steelers would consider him at #32, but I think they take Mangold if he's still around.Dallas at 18 would be a good fit - I may change that in the next mock.

 

[Foosball God]

I'd be very surprised if the Lions go D-line with their 1st round pick.

I think they have to address the defensive side of the ball in round 1. That one was seriously a tough pick, but after staring at their depth chart for about 10 minutes, I finally decided on Redding as the player they'd likely most want to upgrade, hence Hali at 1.9. This could go a lot of different ways, though - an OL is certainly a possibility, but with Ferguson and Justice already off the board in my mock, I didn't see the value at OT in their spot. As I mentioned, they very easily may trade down from this spot with an OT in mind, but at #9, to me, it boiled down to Greenway and Hali as the two best talents available at need positions. The depth of LB in this draft, coupled with the premium typically placed on pass rushers on draft day, led me to the Hali pick.

Your line of reasoning isn't horrible, but the Lions depth at LB is pretty deceiving. IMO they either go OLine, LB, or secondary.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I'd be very surprised if the Lions go D-line with their 1st round pick.

I think they have to address the defensive side of the ball in round 1. That one was seriously a tough pick, but after staring at their depth chart for about 10 minutes, I finally decided on Redding as the player they'd likely most want to upgrade, hence Hali at 1.9. This could go a lot of different ways, though - an OL is certainly a possibility, but with Ferguson and Justice already off the board in my mock, I didn't see the value at OT in their spot. As I mentioned, they very easily may trade down from this spot with an OT in mind, but at #9, to me, it boiled down to Greenway and Hali as the two best talents available at need positions. The depth of LB in this draft, coupled with the premium typically placed on pass rushers on draft day, led me to the Hali pick.

Your line of reasoning isn't horrible, but the Lions depth at LB is pretty deceiving. IMO they either go OLine, LB, or secondary.

Given the first 8 players off the board in this mock, and without trading down, who do you think they take at #9? Greenway? One of the OTs? Huff/Williams? Always looking for homer input.....

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think Carpenter is ideal ina 3-4, but with relatively few teams running it, it limits where I thought he might go as a first-round pick. The Steelers would consider him at #32, but I think they take Mangold if he's still around.

Dallas at 18 would be a good fit - I may change that in the next mock.

That would be quite the turnaround for the Dallas defense in two drafts, wouldn't it?Adding Spears, Canty, and Ware last year and then Carpenter this? That's called a radical transformation.