The Soulfly Top 30 WRs (Dynasty) UPDATED (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

Special Thank to Meecrob for the general idea/outline.

I've never sat and made myself an excel sheet using stats and subjective "ideas" to come up with a dynasty ranking of my own. I've always just used the eye test, research, and lots of film.

So, I gave it a shot - and surprisingly, my excel rankings are pretty close to my actual "eyeball" sheet... Not exact, but I like the way I can see quantitatively why some guys are where they are, even though I quantified some qualitative stats.

As always... not an exact science. Borrowed a bit from Meecrob as I mentioned above... Placed much more emphasis on performance stats over age (0.7 v 0.3), used an average over the past 2 years (if applicable) and added a personalized "freakishness factor" which encompasses size, speed, power, natural ability and "wow" factor (all subjective)

This is a PPR ranking, and you'll notice if/when comparing my numbers to meecrobs for 2014 performance, my numbers differ slightly, as I used MFL official stats.

Enjoy. Blast away, or discuss away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Q606W4AnbhNU1NNnloa3ZYTzg/view?usp=sharing

***Updated with Freakish MULTIPLIER***

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Q606W4AnbhekxON2IydjBGc3c/view?usp=sharing

 

[kutta]

Good stuff. I agree with a lot of your rankings except OBJ at number 1. I see how that happened, but maybe you need a "has proven it" score to weight guys who have consistently been good. They will have far less question marks than a guy who's done it for one year.

 

[Soulfly3]

Good stuff. I agree with a lot of your rankings except OBJ at number 1. I see how that happened, but maybe you need a "has proven it" score to weight guys who have consistently been good. They will have far less question marks than a guy who's done it for one year.

Agreed. Like I stated, this aren't my actual rankings, but my ranking based mostly on quantitative measurements, mixed w a bit of qualitative.

In my own rankings, I actually have MIke Evans above OBJ... but both are very high... But OBJ definitely isnt number 1.

My rankings are close to this... which makes me feel good about what Im doing, as it's nice to see it on paper... but they arent exact.

Fun to see why/how you rank them the way you do, despite some numbers telling you a little differently.

 

[12punch]

you'd put cobb 7 without knowing where his next contract will be?

 

[Soulfly3]

you'd put cobb 7 without knowing where his next contract will be?

based on the chart, yes.

on my actual rankings (that I do differently) no.

You can see I dont "love" cobb all that much, he's freak rating is "low"... but fact is, his numbers speak for themselves where he is NOW.

If cobb leaves, his QB numbers will drop, as will his ranking.

 

[msommer]

you'd put cobb 7 without knowing where his next contract will be?

based on the chart, yes.

on my actual rankings (that I do differently) no.

You can see I dont "love" cobb all that much, he's freak rating is "low"... but fact is, his numbers speak for themselves where he is NOW.

If cobb leaves, his QB numbers will drop, as will his ranking.

I'd maybe add a field for comments. For instance in the event that Sammy Watkins gets a QB i/o EJ, he might have upside

 

[cstu]

There's something wrong when Hopkins is behind Edelman, Sanders, and Tate.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Not sure about the QB modifier. Takes some of the dynasty aspect out. Guys with Peyton get a bump for example even though he only has a year or two left. Situations also change pretty frequently. I'd put a lot more emphasis on the receivers talent vs situation.

 

[Soulfly3]

There's something wrong when Hopkins is behind Edelman, Sanders, and Tate.

agreed. his year in 2013 really hurt him in this sheet.

2014 wasnt an amazing year either, and his QB stinks...

I like him more than the chart shows, that's for certain

 

[Soulfly3]

Not sure about the QB modifier. Takes some of the dynasty aspect out. Guys with Peyton get a bump for example even though he only has a year or two left. Situations also change pretty frequently. I'd put a lot more emphasis on the receivers talent vs situation.

yup. very tough.

imo, peyton only plays one more year... but for all I know he plays 2-3 more.

other guys like brady, brees, ben etc may play 3-5yrs more...

I can only give a number as best I can... Peyton should be a 2 in the QB rank (the highest, as he one of the GOAT) but I bumped him down to 1.5 to assume some "risk" in his retirement.

These sheets are brutal for things like this

 

[Slapdash]

Cooks, Super Mart, Stills, and Randle look too high to me. Hilton and Hopkins too low.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Not sure about the QB modifier. Takes some of the dynasty aspect out. Guys with Peyton get a bump for example even though he only has a year or two left. Situations also change pretty frequently. I'd put a lot more emphasis on the receivers talent vs situation.

yup. very tough.

imo, peyton only plays one more year... but for all I know he plays 2-3 more.

other guys like brady, brees, ben etc may play 3-5yrs more...

I can only give a number as best I can... Peyton should be a 2 in the QB rank (the highest, as he one of the GOAT) but I bumped him down to 1.5 to assume some "risk" in his retirement.

These sheets are brutal for things like this

I might try it with only a 0-1 scale for the QB. It's pushing guys with good QBs too high imo and talented WRs too low.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think I'd have one of the young Arizona WRs ahead of Randle for sure. Besides, what is the latest with Cruz in NY?

 

[Soulfly3]

***UPDATE***

Made one "small" change that had some pretty dramatic results.... Dramatic in many senses, but most importantly, that it better reflects my actual "eye test" dynasty rankings.

As suggested above, I changed the QB rate to a scale of 0-1, but most importantly, I used the "freak factor" as a multiplier, instead of just an addition.

This created a more reflective set to what I like... Thoughts? (note: still not perfect, but much better, imo)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Q606W4AnbhekxON2IydjBGc3c/view?usp=sharing

 

[12punch]

I Think you're Probably Better Off Just Posting The Top 30 Master List That you're Trying To Massage This To reflect

 

[Soulfly3]

I Think you're Probably Better Off Just Posting The Top 30 Master List That you're Trying To Massage This To reflect

Nah.

I have always done things my way.... Which I mentioned in the OP... watch, learn, research, rank.

It's nice to have some tangible numbers to help confirm what your eyes see, is also what's going on, on the field.

This is merely an exercise in bettering myself/my rankings to win as many leagues as I can... or make better trades in the future.

I will NEVER stop doing things my original way... But now, I think I'll also always be working with, and tweaking this sheet to back up what I think Im seeing.

 

[fruity pebbles]

You do realize that the players now go in order of freakishness since it's so highly factored? Since that is subjective, the list becomes a fairly normal opinion based dynasty list.

 

[Soulfly3]

You do realize that the players now go in order of freakishness since it's so highly factored? Since that is subjective, the list becomes a fairly normal opinion based dynasty list.

Yup.

I did notice this... But, well... The guys I have ranked the highest are generally the most "freakish" guys... I mean, I think that's fairly normal.

I'm not worried about it as is.

because, without it... I have guys like hopkins, watkins, marshall way too low.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Working backwards from a list you like to try to create a non-biased formula is pretty difficult. Admire the attempt, but doubt you start finding outliers that lead you to breakout players this way since the most heavily weighted values are arbitrarily chosen by you already. You might as well just post your raw "normal" WR rankings as the bells and whistles aren't really effecting much here.

 

[Bri]

Randle doesn't belong at all

 

[Bri]

I am not a fan of a player playing sparingly through an injury (for FF) but...do you think AJ Green is too low?

 

[Soulfly3]

I am not a fan of a player playing sparingly through an injury (for FF) but...do you think AJ Green is too low?

Yup.

 

[Bri]

If I say Alshon Jeffrey is not as good as Brandon Marshall but your rankings say he is much better...what's your reply?

 

[Soulfly3]

If I say Alshon Jeffrey is not as good as Brandon Marshall but your rankings say he is much better...what's your reply?

I disagree.

Alshon is every bit as good, imo, with youth and no major injuries on his side.

 

[saintfool]

here's my issue with Demaryius in Dynasty: Manning is strictly year-to-year now. This is not the same as saying "every QB is an injury away from career or season ending injury" but rather we seem to be asked to light candles, say prayer vigils at conclusion of every season now with Manning. Thomas may have oodles of talent but there is no denying his value in dynasty is now directly wedded to Manning. part of dynasty valuation is predicated on stability, upside or growth in their system. i see very little evidence of it for Thomas while Manning is at the helm. he can't be top 3 or 5 despite the gaudy numbers he has put up because of it.

 

[Soulfly3]

Demariyus is a monster tho... Manning or not.

I mean, we can use Mike Evans as the most current example... Garbage at QB, still put up great numbers (and he's only a rookie)

I feel like cream always rises to the top... WIll his numbers be the same post-Manning? Of course not (unless they sign another top end QB), but I dont see him slipping too far down from where he is now, tbh.

But I see your point, completely

 

[saintfool]

Demariyus is a monster tho... Manning or not.

I mean, we can use Mike Evans as the most current example... Garbage at QB, still put up great numbers (and he's only a rookie)

I feel like cream always rises to the top... WIll his numbers be the same post-Manning? Of course not (unless they sign another top end QB), but I dont see him slipping too far down from where he is now, tbh.

But I see your point, completely

yeah, i tend to think uncertainty knocks down a players value in dynasty formats. so iffy QB play, coaching changes or even impending FA drop players in dynasty for me. continuity - which is not to be confused with stasis - is a virtue.

 

[Sabertooth]

No Josh Gordon????!!!!?? Lol

 

[Soulfly3]

No Josh Gordon????!!!!?? Lol

You know he's in there.

You just can't see him.