The Spagnuolo Speculation (1 Viewer)

[Rylenol]

I've been doing my due diligence on runningbacks that should be off the board by the 10th overall pick (I draft at 9 in my 12 man redraft league) and I've found myself really intrigued by Steven Jackson's situation this year. Out is the old regime and in is Steve Spagnuolo as the HC and Pat Shurmur as OC. My theory, and by theory I'm in no way trying to take credit for something that is largely speculative, hinges on the fact that Spagny and Shurm were involved in one way or another with the offensive game plan that showed no restraint in running the legs off of a runningback that has an injury filled history. Jackson was obviously the center of the offense last year and all signs have already pointed to that being the case again this year but I do feel that this coaching change further reinforces the fact that Jackson should be in line for a heavy, heavy workload as Westbrook was given an insane workload despite his small size and history of injuries. What Spagnuolo and Shurmur have at their disposal is the behemoth version of Westbrook. I wont drone on any longer but I'm as high off Jackson as I've ever been.

BTW - this is my first post here at FBG forums. Here's a toast to fantasy football forums; where analysis and deliberation result in more precise fantasy football knowledge than any one sided article could ever provide.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Welcome to the forums!

There is a lot to like about Jackson's fantasy fortunes going forward. His naysayers will point to his games missed the past two years and/or to the bad Rams offense. It's hard to argue with top3-5 productin when he is healthy, though... There aren't that many RBs that have a real shot at being the #1 overall fantasy RB; Jackson is one of them.

He shouldn't be there at nine, but if he is you got a steal.

 

[msommer]

In the absence of a Ward, a Ware and a Bradshaw hanging around, Spags may want to control that urge...

 

[Tanner9919]

Welcome to the forums!

There is a lot to like about Jackson's fantasy fortunes going forward. His naysayers will point to his games missed the past two years and/or to the bad Rams offense. It's hard to argue with top3-5 productin when he is healthy, though... There aren't that many RBs that have a real shot at being the #1 overall fantasy RB; Jackson is one of them.

He shouldn't be there at nine, but if he is you got a steal.

and just when is he healthy?! he NEVER has been healthy in any season, other than 2006. he's only played a full 16-game schedule once in his career. barely rushes for 1000 yards, doesn't score many TDs, in fact, only once ( again, 2006) did he score more than 8 TDs in a given season. he runs upright.he doesn't avoid contact, he likes to dish it out. Only once in his career has he handled more than 254 carries in any season.. no thanks.

for my money, if you want a guy who probably will be there at #8 ( because he is underrated) and is a stone cold lock for 300+ carries, 1300+ yards and 9-12 TD, it is Clinton Portis...oh, and he almost never gets hurt.and he's VERY capable of becoming the #1 RB in the NFL this season - check his schedule.

never seen a guy get more praise off of one good season,than Steven Jackson..

 

[Blackjacks]

Welcome to FBG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like Jackson alot this year also. The rams are built this year to be a ball controled offense while Spags works out the kinks in the defense. Jackson is going to get alot of touches. I see this as a positive and a negative. The positive of course is touching the ball more should reflect in more points in fantasy football but the negative has to do with Jackson's past of not staying healthy. Do you really want to give the rock to a guy with his medical history? I think alot of his injuries that past couple of years have had to do with a lack of desire to be on the field. It is no secret tht he, as well as most of the team, didn't care for Linehan. He didn't drive them to be excellent and that's where I think Spags is going to be different. I think the players see him as a leader and he is earning there respect.

Also, add int he fact the oline is looking very good with some additions this year. I truely expect Smith to be our left tackle which is a nice upgrade from often injured Orlando Pace. Also add in FA signing Jason Brown who was the top olineman available in free agency to go with Jacob Bell, Richie Incognito and Alex Barron if you ahve a very nice line without the injury concern you have had in the past. You also have nice depth in case something does happen to one of these guys.

You can definelty expect nice numbers this year from Jackson. I think if I was doing my rb rankings right now I would have him @ #4 behind ADP, MJD and Turner. If you can get him at #9 I think your doing pretty good for yourself.

The gameplan this year for the Rams is to be conservative and be in the game in the fourth quarter and I personally, (homer her) see them being atleast 8-8 and in the playoff picture. I think they are a good bet to win the division.

 

[Blackjacks]

Wow, can you have 2 more different posts than the 2 above?

I don't blame the other oster for his view. It is easy to see Jackson in that way. I just see something different. (Again maybe being a homer)

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Welcome to FBG!!!!!!!!!!!!!I like Jackson alot this year also. The rams are built this year to be a ball controled offense while Spags works out the kinks in the defense. Jackson is going to get alot of touches. I see this as a positive and a negative. The positive of course is touching the ball more should reflect in more points in fantasy football but the negative has to do with Jackson's past of not staying healthy. Do you really want to give the rock to a guy with his medical history? I think alot of his injuries that past couple of years have had to do with a lack of desire to be on the field. It is no secret tht he, as well as most of the team, didn't care for Linehan. He didn't drive them to be excellent and that's where I think Spags is going to be different. I think the players see him as a leader and he is earning there respect.Also, add int he fact the oline is looking very good with some additions this year. I truely expect Smith to be our left tackle which is a nice upgrade from often injured Orlando Pace. Also add in FA signing Jason Brown who was the top olineman available in free agency to go with Jacob Bell, Richie Incognito and Alex Barron if you ahve a very nice line without the injury concern you have had in the past. You also have nice depth in case something does happen to one of these guys. You can definelty expect nice numbers this year from Jackson. I think if I was doing my rb rankings right now I would have him @ #4 behind ADP, MJD and Turner. If you can get him at #9 I think your doing pretty good for yourself.The gameplan this year for the Rams is to be conservative and be in the game in the fourth quarter and I personally, (homer her) see them being atleast 8-8 and in the playoff picture. I think they are a good bet to win the division.

Another hearty welcome to FBG on behalf of the FBG staff!I think blackjacks is right on with his analysis of the mental state of the team - last year they seemed to "wake up" for about 4 games (including a dominant performance against Dallas), then back to sleep. His analysis of the line's possible improvement is also sound. Jason Smith played almost exclusively in a two point stance at Baylor, but he has the mean streak to be a terrific run blocker.I don't know if I agree about 8-8 and winning the division, but if they are motivated on D and Bulger plays well, it's not out of the question.As far as SJax fantasy prospects, like Blackjacks, I have him 5th right now, with Forte ahead of him, simply because of the injury history - he has had two significant injuries the last two years. He has still produced like a top end RB1 during some terrible stretches of offensive and team play. Just a 10 or 20% improvement by Bulger in converting drives, the line in keeping Bulger healthy, and the defense in staying competitive in games could get Jackson back to his astronomical 2006 numbers. The only real hitch is that there's no clear handcuff to Jackson to hedge the injury risk, and no matter who ends up #2 on the depth chart, the situation has proven to be a moving target once SJax went down the last two seasons.Your optimism about Jackson is very well founded. I'll also add that Shurmur has expressed some positive things about Randy McMichael and I think he can be a bigger part of the passing offense than anyone realizes right now.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Welcome to the forums!

There is a lot to like about Jackson's fantasy fortunes going forward. His naysayers will point to his games missed the past two years and/or to the bad Rams offense. It's hard to argue with top3-5 productin when he is healthy, though... There aren't that many RBs that have a real shot at being the #1 overall fantasy RB; Jackson is one of them.

He shouldn't be there at nine, but if he is you got a steal.

and just when is he healthy?! he NEVER has been healthy in any season, other than 2006. he's only played a full 16-game schedule once in his career. barely rushes for 1000 yards, doesn't score many TDs, in fact, only once ( again, 2006) did he score more than 8 TDs in a given season. he runs upright.he doesn't avoid contact, he likes to dish it out. Only once in his career has he handled more than 254 carries in any season.. no thanks.

for my money, if you want a guy who probably will be there at #8 ( because he is underrated) and is a stone cold lock for 300+ carries, 1300+ yards and 9-12 TD, it is Clinton Portis...oh, and he almost never gets hurt.and he's VERY capable of becoming the #1 RB in the NFL this season - check his schedule.

never seen a guy get more praise off of one good season,than Steven Jackson..

I always respond to your anti-Jackson posts, but you never respond to my responses, so I will keep this brief:You cherry pick pick 254 rushes like it is meaningful... how about 250? Then Jackson has hit it in 3 out of 4 season as the starter. How about 225? All four seasons. Carries per game? 19.83 over the last four years.

Portis has 20.52 carries per game for his career. Portis' touches per game with receptions: 22.85. Jackson's: 23.67.

Jackson has only played in 16 games once... true. He played in 15 games in 2005 and 14 in 2004 behind Faulk. So, through 5 seasons he has played in 14+ games 3 times, and 69 out of 80 games overall.

How did iron man Portis (who I like as well btw) fare in his first 5 season? 8, 13, 15, 16, 16 games played. 68 out of 80 games. Kind of similar, eh? But you will ignore this because you like Portis.

Portis had 9 TDs in 16 games last year. Jackson had 1 less TD in four fewer games... but Portis is a stone-cold lock for double digit TDs and Jackson doesn't score them? Portis' TD/g in his career as a starter: .76/g. Jackson's? .73/g. HUGE difference. Portis' TDs in Washington? .63/g. Uh oh.

You going to bring up Brandon Jacobs again as a great option again? Didn't think so.

How many RBs play 16 games a year? In the consensus top 30 RBs last year, 17 missed games (16 due to injury, plus Larry Johnson due to suspension). A few more had significantly diminished roles due to nagging injuries.

NO RB IS A SAFE BET TO PLAY 16 GAMES!

Further, NOBODY can predict which RBs will stay healthy. Football is a collision sport, and RBs collide more than any other skill position.

~~~

This is not meant as a Portis vs Jackson post, I like both guys. Portis is fine value at pick 9/10. I only use Portis as an example because Tanner used him as the safe stud example.

~~~

I didn't keep this as brief as I thought. Maybe I'll copy/paste this response in the future when Tanner posts his drivel.

 

[Rylenol]

Thought this article kind of ties in nicely with my point about Jackson's value, especially in PPR leagues, and the West Coast system brought in by Shurmur.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcwest/0-9-199...ng-numbers.html