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The Unique Case of the NE Patriots (1 Viewer)

If the Patriots traded Aaron Hernandez for Ray Rice tomorrow, would the Patriots offense be better or worse?
I'll say worse, just because, as good as rice is, I'm not going to sell ridley/vereen short --- I think those guys can be as good as we need them to be.hernandez provides them with a better blocker, receiver, and versatility in scheme.is anybody on defense confused about what ray rice is going to do on the field, even though the guy is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield?is ray rice going to block for another rb?
Okay. Is there a running back in the NFL the Patriots could trade Hernandez for that could make their offense better?If no, is there a running back in the history of the NFL that the Patriots could trade Hernandez for that could make their offense better?
LeSean McCoy. Not so sure they could trade for him by just giving Hernandez, but his receiving skills and ability to be featured will make him even deadlier with Brady than he already is in Philly.However, I believe Vereen can become that RB.
 
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'jurb26 said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
but it's a good point , and people should slow down on this best offense in history stuff.last year, the pats played 4 games against 3 legit playoff teams, I think (no, I don't count den).they were 1/4,and easily could have been 0/4, scoring around 19 ppg.so, before they have a historically great offense, maybe they should start by creating an offense that can beat playoff teams in 2012.
:goodposting: Pretty much how I see it too.I forgot about the Gronk injury for the SB. Good call.The fact still remains that NYG adapted and played NE significantly better the 2nd time around. Perhaps the rest of the league will look at what Balt, NYG and Pitt (a team I didn't even mention before) did and be better prepared to slow the Pats down.
You act like everyone in the league has a pass rush like the Giants, or the total defense that the Ravens have.
 
'David Yudkin said:
'az_prof said:
I am not sure that they are that unique or special. First, I think they will regress because I think teams will figure better how to defend their 2TE formations. I am not convinced that they are that much better talent wise than the next 10 best fantasy TEs. I DO think Brady is a top 5 QB and Bellicheat is one of the best schemers, which helps make their production unique. I know that my opinion is the minority opinion and their owners and NE fans will proceed to attack me. That's fine. This is my opinion and I am sticking to it until they prove otherwise. One year does not a HOFer make.
The Pats updgraded their receiving corps by a large margin in adding Lloyd and Gaffney. I can't prove it, but I suspect that the Pats are the only team to start a season with 6 guys that had at least 700 receiving yards the year before.Can't stop the 2 TE set? What will teams do if the Pats stick Hernandez in the backfield with 4 WR (Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Branch) and Gronk at the TE spot? Teams couldn't stop the 2TE set . . . but the Pats really only used Welker to the best of his abilities. Branch did ok, but clearly Ocho Cinco was a bust. Brady will have better options to go along with Gronk / Hernandez / Welker this year.
Too bad you can't have 6 skill position players on the field at the same time (well not running routes). That would leave you with only 4 lineman and the quarterback.
 
'jurb26 said:
'David Yudkin said:
Good thing they don't have to face the Ravens and Giants every week. The Packers got shut down by the Giants, too, so I suppose we should write off their offense as easy to defend.I don't see how adding Lloyd and Gaffney can be viewed as HURTING the offense and their productivity. Having a deeper set of receivers will only HELP the offense by giving them more options. They now have capable players, while not elite, know what they are doing and can be counted on to be where they are supposed to be. Between Lloyd and Gaffney, they added two players that had almost 2,000 combined receiving yards last year. Of the top passing teams from last year, which other team got better in that area?
Way to take things completely out of context. When did I say we should write off the Pats offense? I'm simply providing support that contradicts the notion that "no NFL D has answers for them." That seems to be the OP thesis and it is simply untrue.Also, when did I say adding Lloyd and Gaffney would HURT them? Again, I'm simply pointing out that this is NOT a team with 4 elite options in the passing game.
You are arguing against something that you are interpreting incorrectly. If you look at my original post, I clearly defined what I meant by "elite". Those four players are, by that definition, elite. Quite frankly I dont think there is much arguement to make against that fact. There is enough film on these guys to show how much they manhandle single coverage. With regards to the numbers you posted, you found 2 games out of the 19 the Pats played where they were "stopped" (really more like slowed down, but thats semantics). Not to mention that in one of those games Gronk was hurt severly. There is also the fact that Lloyd was present in neither of those games, which was a premise of what I wrote. Having Lloyd takes them to another level. The reality is that there are probably no teams with the personel to shut them down consistently. Not saying it cant happen because this is the NFL. In a given game, a team could get enough quick pressure to throw them off. But that will be far from the norm.
 
Patriots a very condensed and restricted passing game, Very little intermediate and downfield passing – They were easy to defend

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/02/09/cosells-watching-the-super-bowl-patriots-offense-was-easy-to-defend/

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/02/08/cosell-talks-the-giants-defense-rests/
All good points, but they were all in the context of last year's team. 85 was a non-factor all year and Gronk was hurt for the SB. This made the Pats easier to contain in the final game. Add speed that must be respected on the outside and a healthy gronk to make the Blackburn mismatch favor NE and I think there is possibility that OP prediction makes some sense. I'm not making injury excuses, Giants implemented a great scheme to win. I am buying in to the idea that the personnel mix the Pats have lined up for this year will stretch most teams beyond their ability to adequately defend the field.

 
'David Yudkin said:
'FF Ninja said:
Here's what I have projected for the Pats receiving distribution . . .

Targets Rec Yds TDWelker 140 100 1190 6Gronk 110 75 1000 12Lloyd 100 60 975 6Hern 90 68 815 7Gaffney 50 35 450 3Branch 40 30 375 4Edelman 8 5 50 0Slater 3 1 20 0RBs 85 50 450 4Fells 4 2 25 0 630 426 5350 42
Just curious, are you projecting any injuries? I don't think Gaffney or Branch see the field that much if the top 4 guys play 16 games.
I think the Pats will rotate personnel more than in the past. I can't see either Lloyd or Gaffney coming to NE to hold a clip board. Branch might be the odd man out as he seems to have lost his ability to get separation and lost a step or two. I also think the big three (TEs and Welker) were utilized as much as they were due to the fact that Branch didn't bring much the latter part of the year and Ocho did close to nothing. I'm not sure how you go about predicting injuries for receivers and tight ends. What I projected was only 100/3 more than last season . . . but I can see the Pats exceeding those numbers. Easy schedule, still a soft defense, mostly unproven running game, etc. I still see the offense moving the ball through the air a lot more than on the ground.
I wasn't saying you should project injuries, just curious if that was why Gaffney and Branch had that many receptions. Maybe I'm blinded by my love for Lloyd in 2012, but I don't think they'll take him out much and/or play a lot of 3WR sets. The 2WR/2TE set should be a staple for them.Some food for thought from the Brandon Lloyd thread:
I don't have the formation numbers, but here is the snap count for Patriots WRs and TEs in 2012:95% Rob Gronkowski89% Wes Welker77% Aaron Hernandez75% Deion Branch51% other WRs (led by Ochocinco at 26%)Aaron Hernandez missed 2 games, and Branch missed 1 and sat out most of week 17. If you leave out those 4 games (weeks 3, 4, 15, and 17), then other WR drops to 37% of the snaps (led by Ochocinco at 20%).
When taking that into account, it appears that Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and Lloyd will all see well over 80% of the snaps (not necessarily together) and the other WRs will see maybe 30-40% and you'd have to think they won't be the first or second option on those plays.
 
I am not sure that they are that unique or special. First, I think they will regress because I think teams will figure better how to defend their 2TE formations. I am not convinced that they are that much better talent wise than the next 10 best fantasy TEs. I DO think Brady is a top 5 QB and Bellicheat is one of the best schemers, which helps make their production unique.

I know that my opinion is the minority opinion and their owners and NE fans will proceed to attack me. That's fine. This is my opinion and I am sticking to it until they prove otherwise. One year does not a HOFer make.
The Pats updgraded their receiving corps by a large margin in adding Lloyd and Gaffney. I can't prove it, but I suspect that the Pats are the only team to start a season with 6 guys that had at least 700 receiving yards the year before.Can't stop the 2 TE set? What will teams do if the Pats stick Hernandez in the backfield with 4 WR (Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Branch) and Gronk at the TE spot? Teams couldn't stop the 2TE set . . . but the Pats really only used Welker to the best of his abilities. Branch did ok, but clearly Ocho Cinco was a bust. Brady will have better options to go along with Gronk / Hernandez / Welker this year.
And all 6 of those guys had at least 97 targets last year. I agree that Brady will have better options this year, but in terms of fantasy I think it could really cut into individual numbers.

 
'David Yudkin said:
'FF Ninja said:
Here's what I have projected for the Pats receiving distribution . . .

Targets Rec Yds TDWelker 140 100 1190 6Gronk 110 75 1000 12Lloyd 100 60 975 6Hern 90 68 815 7Gaffney 50 35 450 3Branch 40 30 375 4Edelman 8 5 50 0Slater 3 1 20 0RBs 85 50 450 4Fells 4 2 25 0 630 426 5350 42
Just curious, are you projecting any injuries? I don't think Gaffney or Branch see the field that much if the top 4 guys play 16 games.
I think the Pats will rotate personnel more than in the past. I can't see either Lloyd or Gaffney coming to NE to hold a clip board. Branch might be the odd man out as he seems to have lost his ability to get separation and lost a step or two. I also think the big three (TEs and Welker) were utilized as much as they were due to the fact that Branch didn't bring much the latter part of the year and Ocho did close to nothing. I'm not sure how you go about predicting injuries for receivers and tight ends. What I projected was only 100/3 more than last season . . . but I can see the Pats exceeding those numbers. Easy schedule, still a soft defense, mostly unproven running game, etc. I still see the offense moving the ball through the air a lot more than on the ground.
I wasn't saying you should project injuries, just curious if that was why Gaffney and Branch had that many receptions. Maybe I'm blinded by my love for Lloyd in 2012, but I don't think they'll take him out much and/or play a lot of 3WR sets. The 2WR/2TE set should be a staple for them.Some food for thought from the Brandon Lloyd thread:
I don't have the formation numbers, but here is the snap count for Patriots WRs and TEs in 2012:95% Rob Gronkowski89% Wes Welker77% Aaron Hernandez75% Deion Branch51% other WRs (led by Ochocinco at 26%)Aaron Hernandez missed 2 games, and Branch missed 1 and sat out most of week 17. If you leave out those 4 games (weeks 3, 4, 15, and 17), then other WR drops to 37% of the snaps (led by Ochocinco at 20%).
When taking that into account, it appears that Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, and Lloyd will all see well over 80% of the snaps (not necessarily together) and the other WRs will see maybe 30-40% and you'd have to think they won't be the first or second option on those plays.
Don't you also have to consider that those numbers may be the way they are because they really lacked WR depth after Welker and Branch. THey're adding 2 players who led their team in receiving.
 
Pats aren't the best offense in the NFL. Not even second.
The Pats were second in yardage and third in points scored last year. A case can be made they improved this year.
A case can be made for just about anything until they actually play the games. Nothing really that unique about them.
How are you defining best? Yards? Points? Yards per play? Not being combative, just looking to generate discussion and understand your POV.As far as what is unique about them, what other team in the NFL is a Top 3 Passing Yardage offense with the majority of targets/yards coming from two TEs and a slot WR?
 
but it's a good point , and people should slow down on this best offense in history stuff.last year, the pats played 4 games against 3 legit playoff teams, I think (no, I don't count den).they were 1/4,and easily could have been 0/4, scoring around 19 ppg.so, before they have a historically great offense, maybe they should start by creating an offense that can beat playoff teams in 2012.
:goodposting: Pretty much how I see it too.I forgot about the Gronk injury for the SB. Good call.The fact still remains that NYG adapted and played NE significantly better the 2nd time around. Perhaps the rest of the league will look at what Balt, NYG and Pitt (a team I didn't even mention before) did and be better prepared to slow the Pats down.
If you look at NE's schedule, it's pretty soft again this year (hypothetically).
 
that's probably what you said nov 7, 2010, too.

or maybe going into that bills game last year.

edit: but I agree they are certainly a potential 13 win team, if that's what you're going for.

 
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Say all you want but I don't understand what 2TE has to do with anything? I understand the thought but in the end it comes down to receiving threats as the Pats are a passing team.

Do want to be a jack of all trades, run/pass/PA or do you want to be the master of one? You need a little balance but even when teams knew the Packers had to pass they still couldn't in most cases stop them. Also I think it was very understated about what the loss of Joe Philbins son just days before the game against the Giants did to the team, although its not an excuse for losing just something that contributed.

In the end the Pats are going to be really good but just because you add more weapons it doesn't mean the team gets better automatically. They still can only have a limited number of people on the field at 1 time, with your master 2 TE set that means a max of 3 WRs. Will Llyod still be out there running every route as hard as possible when he only gets 2-3 balls his way some games? Like others said they lead their teams in receiving last year, they were getting the most passes there way. Ever have a time in your life when you were the bench player just coming in for short period of times, a lot easier to get in a groove and go all out when your the star instead of the backup.

 
Say all you want but I don't understand what 2TE has to do with anything? I understand the thought but in the end it comes down to receiving threats as the Pats are a passing team.

Do want to be a jack of all trades, run/pass/PA or do you want to be the master of one? You need a little balance but even when teams knew the Packers had to pass they still couldn't in most cases stop them. Also I think it was very understated about what the loss of Joe Philbins son just days before the game against the Giants did to the team, although its not an excuse for losing just something that contributed.

In the end the Pats are going to be really good but just because you add more weapons it doesn't mean the team gets better automatically. They still can only have a limited number of people on the field at 1 time, with your master 2 TE set that means a max of 3 WRs. Will Llyod still be out there running every route as hard as possible when he only gets 2-3 balls his way some games? Like others said they lead their teams in receiving last year, they were getting the most passes there way. Ever have a time in your life when you were the bench player just coming in for short period of times, a lot easier to get in a groove and go all out when your the star instead of the backup.
I would actually say that's exactly what it means. Lloyd is a clear improvement over the personel they had in his position last season (ochocinco, branch, etc). And as for Lloyd running his routes hard, he took less money to come to NE. I don't expect him to get pouty, I think he knows what he's getting into. Not to mention the fact that I don't think there will be too many games where he only gets 2 or 3 balls thrown his way. The pats should be throwing early and often.
 
2011 Passing Statistics: An outlier or the continuation of an ongoing trend?

One of the more debateable topics this season is that of the multiple 5000 yard passers. This is clearly new ground that we have stepped upon in the football world, as only 2 QBs had EVER thrown for 5000 yards in a season before 3 accomplishing this feat last year (and Eli Manning threw for 4,933 yards). While many would see this as an outlier year, one that is sure to "regress" in some way, I would urge you to look at this post by Butcher Boy:

2011: 117,601 passing yards

2010: 113,450

2009: 111,851

2008: 108,177

2007: 109,722

There is a definite upward trend of about 3-4% per year since 2008. I see no reason why the numbers will not continue this trend or at least stabilize at the current high number due to the current state of QB favorable rules on the field. Therefore, you can resonably conclude that there will be multiple QBs who exceed or at least come very close to 5,000 yards.
It would seem, when looking at this data, that last years passing numbers were more the continuation of an ongoing trend than the start of something new. Certainly, last season saw prolific passing statistics that we had never seen before, but keep in mind that when we talk about 5000 yard passers we are talking about just one benchmark, an arbitrary threshold if you will. It is more beneficial to look at these numbers as a whole than to focus on individual performances with such thresholds if we want to discuss a league-wide trend. I would say that if you look at the data and the way the league is trending, it is not only possible, but LIKELY that there will be multiple QBs exceeding or coming close to 5000 yards passing as the original poster stated. Keep in mind that we have spoken now only as the league as a whole, and not the specific case of the Patriots.
I appreciate the well-thought out post, but I need to disagree with you here. Take a look at this chart. This is the slope from QB1 to QB12 for each of the last eight years. The top lavender line is last year, and the green line right below it is 2007. This shows Brady '07, Brees '11, Rodgers '11, Brady '11, Stafford '11 and Newton '11 as pretty significant standouts. Everything else lines up pretty normally, while showing the upward trend across the league in performance.So, while it's possible that Brady COULD be in for a special year (he's #1 QB on my rankings), it's not reasonable to conclude the above. The trend in QB performance is most definitely pointing upward, but that doesn't mean that last year wasn't an outlier.

Again, thanks for the post.

 
I don't know if this was the thread, but there was quite a bit of speculation about how many times brady would throw the ball this year, and he ended up setting a career high at 637.now, that the season's over.same number of completions as the previous year on 26 more throws, and that's with hernandez missing most of the year.

 
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In fact, here are my current projections for the NE passing game:

Brady: 640 attempts, 8.28 YPA, 5299/46/12 (TDs are admittedly probably a shade high, but I'm all in on NE)
haha....just reread the op, and while he was a bit optimistic overall, he was money on the attempts.
 
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to get back to the op, I wanted to post some pats stats, since 2007 is always thrown out there for comparison as the pot of gold year.

from football outsiders (thx, FO)

and pro-football-reference

2007

pass/run - 586/451

yards - 6580 - 1st

plays - 1058 - 2nd by 2 plays

off td - 67

rush td - 17 - tied 5th

drives - 158 - actually tied with indy for lowest in league

yds/drive - 41.63 - 1st in league (indy 2nd at 37)

td/drive - .424 - 1st in league (indy 2nd at .323)

DSR - .812 - 1st in league (indy 2nd at .769)

DSR represents Drive Success Rate, as introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown.

2011

pass/run - 612/438

yards - 6848 - 2nd

plays - 1082 - 2nd

off td - 57

rush td - 18 - 3rd

drives - 173 - 4th lowest (pit lowest at 165)

yds/drive - 39.53 - 2nd (NO 1st at 42.44)

td/drive - .329 - 3rd (GB 1st at .375)

DSR - .775 - 2nd (NO 1st at .788)

rolling into 2011, I thought new england was going to be the dominant team everybody's talking about for 2012, and maybe I'm a spoiled pats fan, but I'd say 2011 turned out to be good, but not great.

comparing these 2 sets of stats, I think they're remarkably similar -- more similar than I expected, but the key difference, and this is what I DID expect, is basically drive efficiency.

there's about a .100 drop off from 2007 to 2011 in td/drive, resulting in about 10 fewer brady td's over 170+ drives.

I'll post up td/drive leaders from the past few years for comparison:

2011 - GB .375

2010 - NE .354

2009 - NO .312

2008 - NO .309

2007 - NE .424

2006 - IN .324

2005 - IN .314

2004 - IN .367

2003 - KC .306

2002 - KC .299

2001 - SL .324

2000 - SL .350

average of above subtracting 2007 - .330

so, you can see the 2007 pats did their damage just by being crazy efficient on their drives --- just about .100 above the typical leader or nearly 30%.

30% better than an annual leader is pretty efficient, and this obviously includes some of the very best offenses of the last decade - saints, indy, packers, rams.

the 2011 team weighed in at only .329 td/drive, which is just about exactly the .330 average of annual leaders shown above.

those of you looking to squeeze more fantasy points out of the pats this year can actually do so if mcd and lloyd manage to pimp that drive efficiency back up to the crazy good ted williams level.
as a bit of a post mortem post, football outsiders has the pats leading the league this past year in td/drive at .333, which is nearly identical to 2011 and the average league leader, but not at that freakish .400 level I was hoping for.although, hernandez missed quite a bit of time.

 
If the Patriots traded Aaron Hernandez for Ray Rice tomorrow, would the Patriots offense be better or worse?
I'll say worse, just because, as good as rice is, I'm not going to sell ridley/vereen short --- I think those guys can be as good as we need them to be.hernandez provides them with a better blocker, receiver, and versatility in scheme.is anybody on defense confused about what ray rice is going to do on the field, even though the guy is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield?is ray rice going to block for another rb?
Okay. Is there a running back in the NFL the Patriots could trade Hernandez for that could make their offense better?If no, is there a running back in the history of the NFL that the Patriots could trade Hernandez for that could make their offense better?
I would say that the RB would have to be an elite talent, a once in a generational talent. Were talking AP pre-injury, Tomlinson, Sanders etc. it would have to be someone who is just so talented, that a defense would have to choose which foot to shoot itself in. While i think rice is one of the better backs on the league, he is not enough of a freak for defenses to key on him OVER that pats passing game.
What about AP post-injury?
 
but it's a good point , and people should slow down on this best offense in history stuff.last year, the pats played 4 games against 3 legit playoff teams, I think (no, I don't count den).they were 1/4,and easily could have been 0/4, scoring around 19 ppg.so, before they have a historically great offense, maybe they should start by creating an offense that can beat playoff teams in 2012.
:goodposting: Pretty much how I see it too.I forgot about the Gronk injury for the SB. Good call.The fact still remains that NYG adapted and played NE significantly better the 2nd time around. Perhaps the rest of the league will look at what Balt, NYG and Pitt (a team I didn't even mention before) did and be better prepared to slow the Pats down.
If you look at NE's schedule, it's pretty soft again this year (hypothetically).
I hear this every year, so I thought I'd take a look now that the season's over.2 of their 4 losses this year were to superbowl teams by a combined 8 points.they played 6 of the 11 playoff teams, finishing 3-3.balt played 6 games against 5 playoff teams.sf played 5 games against 4 playoff teams.atl played 2 playoff teams.hou played 7 games aganst 6 playoff teamsden played against 5 playoff teams.gb played 6 games against 5 playoff teams.as for aggregate w/l totals, their total opponents' w/l was around .500, which is about the same as hou, sf, sea, balt, was, and gb, with den finishing 28th at 117-139, indy and cincy 30th and 31st, and atl last. minny was the playoff team with the toughest aggregate, finishing 8th at 132-122 --- about the same as giants and saints.
 
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