The Weekly Gut Check No. 158 - High Risk Part II (1 Viewer)

[Matt Waldman]

Part II of My High-Risk Series...Shortcuts

Just another way to push the envelope. Personally, I think this is best used if you participate in a draft, but don't have access to the info you normally bring along or you're in a competitive league and wish to narrow your player pool enough to pinpoint which picks have the most value according to your standards of talent.

Part III and IV will be about Crank Scores. This year I have developed an AVT-based, X-value projection system for the scores as a projection method. I'll discuss the basic concept of Crank Scores in Part III and in part IV I'll provide a pre-training camp cheat sheet based on the projection method I'll review earlier in the article.

 

[RookieBlitz]

I am really enjoying the Gut Check series, definitely some things to think about while drafting this year (aka don't fall into the ADP trap)

 

[Mike]

Nice article. Not sure about the profile pic

 

[Matt Waldman]

Glad you like it (the article, not the pic). Admittedly, not all of these ideas will work out. However, I feel if I'm looking for new ways to compete as the landscape of the hobby changes then I figure many of you feel the same. I'm excited about next week's Crank Scores. I have a very interesting case of two teams matched up head-to-head 17 times based on '08 stats that I think will spawn discussion.

 

[FUBAR]

Not to get too much into the player discussion itself, but I was surprised to not see Vincent Jackson included. To me, he's one of the players that best fit this idea.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Great piece. Great series. This concept is especially useful for auction drafts, where you can really punish the other owners for being risk averse.

Maybe Mark can give a nod to auctions in the next article. I'd love to hear his thoughts on how you can game value in that format.

Cheers,

CA

 

[Matt Waldman]

Not to get too much into the player discussion itself, but I was surprised to not see Vincent Jackson included. To me, he's one of the players that best fit this idea.

He definitely would...and Cooley...I'll be giving my take on Auction drafts in a few weeks. I love auctions and enjoy the variety of strategies one can take. They are probably my favorite type of draft. I'm hoping I get a chance to be in one this year.

 

[Captain Hook]

Not to get too much into the player discussion itself, but I was surprised to not see Vincent Jackson included. To me, he's one of the players that best fit this idea.

He definitely would...and Cooley...I'll be giving my take on Auction drafts in a few weeks. I love auctions and enjoy the variety of strategies one can take. They are probably my favorite type of draft. I'm hoping I get a chance to be in one this year.

Matt - if you love auctions you be wild about the GridIron League (WCOFF) - bidding (real money) for draft slots in the first two rounds (then reverts to serpentine draft).....get to Vegas in September................first cold one on me

 

[Matt Waldman]

Thanks CH ...I'll have to wait 'til next year. Getting married this fall so Vegas is out. However, looking forward to returning to Vegas and participating in WCOFF.

 

[stickboy]

Part II of My High-Risk Series...Shortcuts

Part III and IV will be about Crank Scores. This year I have developed an AVT-based, X-value projection system for the scores as a projection method. I'll discuss the basic concept of Crank Scores in Part III and in part IV I'll provide a pre-training camp cheat sheet based on the projection method I'll review earlier in the article.

Nice work Matt. I'm especially interested in the Crank Score use for AVT and how you project with them. How do you correlate Crank Scores with the average numbers for a position? I played with the Crank Scores and total points from last year, and found that the majority of the top scorers were consistent scorers (as you would expect), but the correlation gets much weaker as you get to the middle of the player curve. I am using the Crank Scores to optimize flex positions and to help decide between RB-RB-WR and WR-RB-RB draft approaches, but that is because I can make general assumptions about relatively wide ranges on the AVT projection curve relative to Crank Score. Using average history for this year's ranked player projections and their X-values is a bit of a stretch to begin with, and I don't see how you can tie Crank Scores to the ranks other than in broad strokes.

I look forward to reading your article, and would be glad to give you early feedback if you are interested.

sb

 

[ratbast]

I very much enjoyed the article. I have prepared for drafts a number of ways through the years and find that the way that works best for me is tiering my players based on value to me and my keeper league. I combine that with the most current cheat sheet from my favorite source and a few profile mags. I think i take guys a little early but i get guys i want and have researched and moved up my tiers. The non tier cheat sheet assists me at seeing a player i dismissed and is dropping much farther than I expected.

Not exactly the same, but similar principles made me think about my tiering.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Part II of My High-Risk Series...Shortcuts

Part III and IV will be about Crank Scores. This year I have developed an AVT-based, X-value projection system for the scores as a projection method. I'll discuss the basic concept of Crank Scores in Part III and in part IV I'll provide a pre-training camp cheat sheet based on the projection method I'll review earlier in the article.

Nice work Matt. I'm especially interested in the Crank Score use for AVT and how you project with them. How do you correlate Crank Scores with the average numbers for a position? I played with the Crank Scores and total points from last year, and found that the majority of the top scorers were consistent scorers (as you would expect), but the correlation gets much weaker as you get to the middle of the player curve. I am using the Crank Scores to optimize flex positions and to help decide between RB-RB-WR and WR-RB-RB draft approaches, but that is because I can make general assumptions about relatively wide ranges on the AVT projection curve relative to Crank Score. Using average history for this year's ranked player projections and their X-values is a bit of a stretch to begin with, and I don't see how you can tie Crank Scores to the ranks other than in broad strokes.

I look forward to reading your article, and would be glad to give you early feedback if you are interested.

sb

We'll see how this projection method works and glad you're looking forward to seeing it. At worst, I think this can be one of many tools to use as a spot check for a handful of players you're researching as potential values or targets depending on your draft approach.

 

[RookieBlitz]

Thanks CH ...I'll have to wait 'til next year. Getting married this fall so Vegas is out. However, looking forward to returning to Vegas and participating in WCOFF.

Congrats!

 

[Black]

Nice article. Not sure about the profile pic

In the pic, you're looking a little like an 'outdoorsy' Ray Romano. Still, it seems more current that the Middle School mugshot they got of Bloom.Anyways...regarding the article...I am still trying to figure out what the profiling does in your favor. I mean, you could very well rank the guys by the shortest RBs, and then reduce your list to a fraction of the full list of RBs and be able to 'focus' your draft that way.I realize that you are choosing much more useful criteria, like accurate QBs and elusive RBs...but how is that different than just creating a list of 'must draft' players, based on much broader criteria, and drafting those guys a round or two higher than ADP?Enjoying the articles, but trying to figure out how to incorporate this into my strategies.