Wheelhouse
Footballguy
Quarterback: Damon Huard, KC - He started 8 games for the Chiefs last season (half a season, stat-wise) and totalled 11 TD passes and only 1 INT. In 5 of the 8 games he had at least 18.8 fantasy points (using FBG fantasy stats). In 4 of the 8 games, Huard had multiple TD passes. His QB rating of 98.0 was 2nd only to Peyton Manning. He's not looked at as a shoe-in for 2007, because he has some competition in Brodie Croyle. Personally, I think Huard will win the job and impress once again. He shouldn't be drafted to be a starter, but a nice diamond in the rough that if he wins the starting job, will most assuredly outpeform his ADP.
Running Back: Jerious Norwood, ATL - Even with a 50/50 split of rushing duties with Warrick Dunn, I am confident that Norwood will be better than the 33rd best RB in the league this year, because that's where he's being drafted. Norwood averaged 6.2 YPC outside of the Georgia Dome and 6.6 YPC inside the friendly confines. To me, that's an unbenchable accomplishment, despite only having three games of double digit carries in 2006. I think we're going to see a heavy dose of Jerious Norwood this year and we all know Atlanta is a very successful run-heavy team. How can he not outperform his ADP?
Wide Receiver: DJ Hackett, SEA - In order to really nail the WR sleeper, you've got to make a gutsy call. In order to make the right gutsy call, there has to be solid, concrete reasons for doing so. Here's mine - #1 WR on the team, Darrell Jackson gone to SF via free agency which opens up more opportunities - CHECK. Despite being, at best the WR3 last season for Seattle, Hackett had 10 games out of 13 in which he had 3 receptions or more - CHECK. At least one game in which he had 13 targets in a game - CHECK. 67.2% reception percentage (41 rec on 61 targets) means he can catch the ball and will be looked at as a 3rd down target. - CHECK. Currently the 36th WR being drafted. I would not be surprised at all if he winds up in the top 25, which would clearly outperform his ADP.
Tight End: David Martin, MIA - With Randy McMichael gone AND Miami's leading receiver, Wes Welker with New England, I can see David Martin stepping up in the Dolphins offense this season. Chris Chambers, although flashy and streaky, has never been a consistent receiver in the NFL. I'm guessing that David Martin, who plays like a WR, will have a big role in the Dolphins offense this season, especially with a QB like Trent Green who actively looked Tony Gonzalez's way for the Chiefs. It should be good enough for him to exceed being better than the 30th best Tight End in the NFL.
Defense/ST: Denver - This is a difficlt pick, because teams can come out of nowhere in this category. Denver is currently the 10th defense being selected according to Antsports ADP. I like their depth and of course the addition of Dre Bly joining Champ Bailey make them arguably the best secondary in the NFL. Even a moderate pass rush with that secondary will have plenty of chances to take the ball to the house.
Kicker: This is known as a fairly meaningless category, but just to humor you, I'm making a pick that will be a top 5 kicker. There's always one every year that comes out of nowhere. This year that kicker will be Olindo Mare, NO. I think the dome will help his accuracy and he's always had a strong leg. New Orleans should continue with the offensive onslaught and Mare is going to benefit. Currently has an ADP as the 18th best kicker. No way he finishes the season there.
Running Back: Jerious Norwood, ATL - Even with a 50/50 split of rushing duties with Warrick Dunn, I am confident that Norwood will be better than the 33rd best RB in the league this year, because that's where he's being drafted. Norwood averaged 6.2 YPC outside of the Georgia Dome and 6.6 YPC inside the friendly confines. To me, that's an unbenchable accomplishment, despite only having three games of double digit carries in 2006. I think we're going to see a heavy dose of Jerious Norwood this year and we all know Atlanta is a very successful run-heavy team. How can he not outperform his ADP?
Wide Receiver: DJ Hackett, SEA - In order to really nail the WR sleeper, you've got to make a gutsy call. In order to make the right gutsy call, there has to be solid, concrete reasons for doing so. Here's mine - #1 WR on the team, Darrell Jackson gone to SF via free agency which opens up more opportunities - CHECK. Despite being, at best the WR3 last season for Seattle, Hackett had 10 games out of 13 in which he had 3 receptions or more - CHECK. At least one game in which he had 13 targets in a game - CHECK. 67.2% reception percentage (41 rec on 61 targets) means he can catch the ball and will be looked at as a 3rd down target. - CHECK. Currently the 36th WR being drafted. I would not be surprised at all if he winds up in the top 25, which would clearly outperform his ADP.
Tight End: David Martin, MIA - With Randy McMichael gone AND Miami's leading receiver, Wes Welker with New England, I can see David Martin stepping up in the Dolphins offense this season. Chris Chambers, although flashy and streaky, has never been a consistent receiver in the NFL. I'm guessing that David Martin, who plays like a WR, will have a big role in the Dolphins offense this season, especially with a QB like Trent Green who actively looked Tony Gonzalez's way for the Chiefs. It should be good enough for him to exceed being better than the 30th best Tight End in the NFL.
Defense/ST: Denver - This is a difficlt pick, because teams can come out of nowhere in this category. Denver is currently the 10th defense being selected according to Antsports ADP. I like their depth and of course the addition of Dre Bly joining Champ Bailey make them arguably the best secondary in the NFL. Even a moderate pass rush with that secondary will have plenty of chances to take the ball to the house.
Kicker: This is known as a fairly meaningless category, but just to humor you, I'm making a pick that will be a top 5 kicker. There's always one every year that comes out of nowhere. This year that kicker will be Olindo Mare, NO. I think the dome will help his accuracy and he's always had a strong leg. New Orleans should continue with the offensive onslaught and Mare is going to benefit. Currently has an ADP as the 18th best kicker. No way he finishes the season there.
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at those expecting Martin to suddenly become Gonzalez. He's very inconsistent. He never could beat out Bubba Franks for that gig in Green Bay. The Packers tight ends were the worst position on the team last season. Franks was absolutely horrible last season and Martin couldn't overtake him. I mean Franks was playing like his shoelaces were tied together to goodness sake! Martin couldn't even get on the field. Plus he's alway hurt. Only one 16 game season in 6 and he got a whopping 13 catches that season. He sucks. Plain and simple. He sucks at playing football. No way around it. Consider that Green Bay has a dearth of talent at TE with Bubba Franks playing like Bubba Gump and Donald Lee. Also consider Favre's ability to find the TE when Chmura and Jackson were there, not to mention the seasons of hitting Bubba for the short scores. Also consider that Green Bay had the second most cap space in the league this offseason. And Ted Thompson is a pretty darn good judge of talent.Did the Packers attempt to resign Martin? Even with 20m in cap space? No. They decided to roll the dice with a 7th rounder instead.
at those expecting Martin to suddenly become Gonzalez. He's very inconsistent. He never could beat out Bubba Franks for that gig in Green Bay. The Packers tight ends were the worst position on the team last season. Franks was absolutely horrible last season and Martin couldn't overtake him. I mean Franks was playing like his shoelaces were tied together to goodness sake! Martin couldn't even get on the field. Plus he's alway hurt. Only one 16 game season in 6 and he got a whopping 13 catches that season. He sucks. Plain and simple. He sucks at playing football. No way around it. Consider that Green Bay has a dearth of talent at TE with Bubba Franks playing like Bubba Gump and Donald Lee. Also consider Favre's ability to find the TE when Chmura and Jackson were there, not to mention the seasons of hitting Bubba for the short scores. Also consider that Green Bay had the second most cap space in the league this offseason. And Ted Thompson is a pretty darn good judge of talent.Did the Packers attempt to resign Martin? Even with 20m in cap space? No. They decided to roll the dice with a 7th rounder instead.
at those expecting Martin to suddenly become Gonzalez. He's very inconsistent. He never could beat out Bubba Franks for that gig in Green Bay. The Packers tight ends were the worst position on the team last season. Franks was absolutely horrible last season and Martin couldn't overtake him. I mean Franks was playing like his shoelaces were tied together to goodness sake! Martin couldn't even get on the field. Plus he's alway hurt. Only one 16 game season in 6 and he got a whopping 13 catches that season. He sucks. Plain and simple. He sucks at playing football. No way around it. Consider that Green Bay has a dearth of talent at TE with Bubba Franks playing like Bubba Gump and Donald Lee. Also consider Favre's ability to find the TE when Chmura and Jackson were there, not to mention the seasons of hitting Bubba for the short scores. Also consider that Green Bay had the second most cap space in the league this offseason. And Ted Thompson is a pretty darn good judge of talent.Did the Packers attempt to resign Martin? Even with 20m in cap space? No. They decided to roll the dice with a 7th rounder instead.
