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The Worst Draft Ever (for 2016) (1 Viewer)

tone1oc

Footballguy
I think with Fantasy that sometimes it's not about hitting, but avoiding the misses.  This thread is about people that I will miss (but not miss, miss) this year.  

Using FFCalc's ADP for Standard leagues, I have assembled a round by round team of the worst possible picks.  This is my who's who of losers at their current ADP, players you should avoid at their current price.  

Let's assume it's start 1 Qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1TE Flex, DST, K and that I'm picking from position 7, as I want to be middle of the rounds to be in reasonable range of early and later round picks by ADP.   I also am building a team here, so I balanced the picks to what an actual worst draft would look like if someone was actually drafting.

1.07 - Lamar Miller (1.09 ADP) I could see his ADP dropping now with the injuries to the OL.  But he is currently being drafted as RB4.  He's not a bell-cow and wildly overvalued, even before the injuries.  He is just the guy you need to draft in round 1 to build an all world worst draft.

2.05 - Jordy Nelson (2.07 ADP) I love Jordy, and if he's able to get back to pre-injury form you will be more than happy with him as your WR1.  Problem is that he's aging and has just now resumed practicing.  I fear that a loss of explosion will make it a lot easier to defend him and the big plays we are used to seeing from Jordy will dry up.  I'm a buyer of Jordy if he slips in to the late 2nd/early 3rd as my WR2.  I'd much rather bank on Keenan Allen, BMarsh, Evans in that price range.

3.07 - Brandin Cooks (3.04 ADP) Last year he feasted on big plays with pinpoint accuracy and/or defensive lapses.  He stills struggles to consistenly get open and get off the press and isn't very good in contested ball situations.  Addition of Michael Thomas who is already pro ready and generating buzz in addition to Coby Fleener should also limit his TD upside.  

4.05 - Jordan Reed (4.06 ADP) To me there are just too many quality TE's later to spend a mid 4th on Reed, who is a concussion away from irrelevancy.  When he plays and is targets he's among the best, problem is that's often not the case.  If I'm going to invest in the 2nd TE tier I'd wait a round and get Olsen.

5.07 - Michael Floyd (5.06 ADP) Along with Lamar Miller, he's in the "If ifs and ands" HOF.  People are looking at the 2nd half of last season as him turning the corner, I see it as just another pattern in an up and down career that we are now in year 5.  He's arguably their 3rd best WR, and Palmer has fits where he simply doesn't trust him. The breakout will not be happening and you will be chasing points week to week.  

6.05 - Ben Roethlisburger (6.05 ADP) Why pay a 6th round price for something you can get in the 10th+ with Andy Dalton.  Aside from AB his WR's are very questionable and he will be without Bell for at least 3 games.   He offers a nice floor without the upside you'd expect from a QB being drafted this high with so much QB talent going later.

7.07 - Ameer Abdullah (7.07 ADP) He can't really run between the tackles and Theo Riddick is better in pass protecting and catching the ball.  He's probably best served as a rotational guy with gamebreakinig ability.  Not someone you want to count on as a RB2/Flex

8.05 - Jay Ajayi (8.10 ADP) This might not apply here in the 8th for much longer, but if you haven't got the memo yet..  He's not good and is the clear backup to Foster and being outplayed by Isaiah Pead.  He will be on your waiver wire soon enough.

9.07 - Christine Michael (9.10 ADP) We won't get fooled again.  Well, some of you will.  He's saying doing all the right things and has dominated this preseason.  He's earned a role on the Seahawks, but that role isn't worth a 9th/10th round pick in fantasy.  Rawls is the better 2 down back and I've like the juice in Prosise with his limited touches so far, though he was running with the 1s on passing downs.  The only way this pick makes sense is if Michael is the primary ball carrier, something I just don't see happening. 

10.05 - Markus Wheaton (10.02 ADP) With emergence of Rogers in the slot, I think they rotate Wheaton with Coates/DHB on the other side of Brown.  I don't see consitent volume coming his way, and he's yet to make the most of his opportunities.  I'm going for more upside and less meh at this spot.  Someone like Funchess or Michael Thomas.

11.07 - Houston or any Defense (11.09 ADP)  Houston may not have Watt to start the season and he makes everything go there.  But there are a host of team defenses being drafted in and around this range based on ADP.  Worse yet, is that by drafting a defense early you are probably inclined to hold on to them for a bad matchup.  

12.05 - Matt Ryan (12.07 ADP) I needed a backup QB and this is about as bad as I could do here.  I really like Dalton or Winston in this range and think Matt Ryan will have another underwhelming campaign.

13.07 - Victor Cruz (13.09 ADP) He's finished.  A waste of a pick.  There will be no salsa-ing this year or ever again.  At least by Cruz in an NFL endzone.

14.05 - Dorial Green-Beckham (14.03 ADP) When the Titans say you suck, you probably do.  Let someone else waste a roster spot.  He sucks.

15.07 - Kicker Do not draft a kicker, take a one week flier with a guy whose situation could change drastically between draft and week 1.   Someone like Jordan Howard or CJ Prosise.
 

Final Wost Imaginable Roster Ever for 2016
QB - Ben Roethlisburger
RB - Lamar Miller
RB - Ameer Abdullah
WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - Brandin Cooks
TE - Jordan Reed
FLEX - Michael Floyd
DEF - Houston
K - Anyone
Bench - Matt Ryan
Bench - Jay Ajayi
Bench - Christine Michael
Bench - Markus Wheaton
Bench - Victor Cruz
Bench - Dorial Green-Beckham

Just awful.

 
FTR.. I did this for lurkers drafting this weekend.  Good luck, tone1oc loves the lurkers! 

 
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Disagree with a lot of that, especially on Jordy Nelson. Look at what Aaron Rodgers got out of James Jones last year.

 
Disagree with a lot of that, especially on Jordy Nelson. Look at what Aaron Rodgers got out of James Jones last year.
With Jordy it was more about who is available around him and the associated risk with him, if healthy he is going to be productive.  I am not sure it will justify his 2.05 price tag, but I do concede that I may be foolish with this one.  

Thanks for input, I'm not shocked we differ on opinion. 

 

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