The Year in Review: AFC East (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Every offseason this board has some spirited debate about a lot of players. Sometimes we forget what really happened during the year and we simply look at the bottom line stats and jump to conclusions. I think while things are still fresh, its best to get down on paper some of our thoughts so they are not turned into delusional debates come Spring. I am going to try and break down the divisions 1 by 1, will take some time but I think it might be well worth it. Please don't be shy, chime in with your thoughts, and it doesn't need to be every team, if you just want to spout about Thomas Jones, go for it.

I am trying to look at both redraft as well as dynasty so again, don't hesitate to post about either of those outlooks.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

QB: Trent Edwards at his best this year was clearly better at running the offense than JP Losman. I think Losman will make a great back up QB for a lot of teams for years to come. That doesn’t mean he will be on a lot of teams, but I think he makes a nice back up because of his in game experience.

Edwards improved this year but got hurt and that lead to the demise of the Bills. Will Jauron be kept on? If he is then you hav to think they will continue along the Edwards path for at least another season. Trent is still pretty young and would only be entering his 3rd year as a pro.

RB: Marshawn Lynch has posted back to back 1,000 yard seasons however he also gets pushed at times by Fred Jackson. Lynch still has a 2.5:1 ratio for carries so he still is the featured back but Jackson seems like a better pass catching threat with 36 catches on only 43 targets, and almost a 2.5 ypr better than Lynch. The passing game has got to get better in order for Lynch to ever fully meet his potential. Right now though, he doesn’t look like an elite back yet, but he is the present and future for Buffalo at RB.

WR: Lee Evans has grown more and more frustrating to own in FF. In weeks 1-8 he was very serviceable for owners, in fact he was ranked 11th in non PPR leagues for PPG thru the 1st 8 weeks of the season…then he nosedived the rest of the way with an untimely injury to Trent Edwards as well. The thing with Evans is that he has a lot of 2/88/TD type games on his resume so he lives and dies with the big plays. He doesn’t seem to have a lot of 6/90 type games which dynasty owners love in PPR leagues. Evans in the FF playoffs posted 3/23, 4.22, 2/19…that is completely pathetic. Losman certainly did not help him much either and those two traditionally hook up a lot when Losman is under center.

The WR2 slot is a mish mash of guy but Josh Reed managed 54 catches, only 4 less than Evans but he only had 1 TD and not much more than a 10 yard avg on his catches. Hardy was drafted by the Bills but he did nothing for most ofg the year and then ended up on IR…little early to be labeled a bust but this team will not hand out a lot of points out of the WR2 position so I would cross them out come draft day, even late in the draft the Bills secondary WR are no bargain.

TE: Royal is pretty meh, eventually they need to upgrade this position.

Overall: Jauron was given an extension, but there is talk that he might not be back after the collapse form 5-1 to 7-8 where they stand right now. A win against New England would go a long way for him. If there is a new coach, I still think Lynch, Evans, and Edwards would all remain with the team. The offense is efficient but far form explosive like owners crave in these leagues.

Miami

QB: Chad Pennington turned his career back around this season. In terms of FF he is still pretty average but from an NFL perspective, what he did with very little around him made for an incredible story, regardless of what he does in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Penny was signed to a 2 year 11 million dollar deal, he is not going anywhere right now. Chad Henne will be groomed as well whenever Chad begins to wear out his welcome. But again, I expect Chad to be here for the foreseeable future and I believe the Dolphins will find a way to get another contract worked out with him, maybe 3-5 years beyond what he is singed to presently. I think I speak for most Phinsfans when I say he has been a welcome breath of fresh air down here. I am a staunch supporter of what he has done down here and I believe he is the next great Miami QB and will put his own mark on the franchise. Not to mention how awesome this guy is in the community, doesn’t get into trouble, doesn’t showboat, the guy is a total role model for the kids around here. The fans have been slow in warming up to him but he just needs more press coverage I guess. I believe Miami has all they need at QB between Penny and Henne being groomed…Henne has a bigger arm, just a matter of playing time for him in another year or two. Penny will eventually get hurt mid season, Henne will enter the game and the rest will be history.

RB: People need to remember that Ronnie Brown was coming off a torn ACL. I’m not totally sold that Miami has to keep Ronnie beyond his current contract which I think runs out the end of next year which will be his 5th in the league. For a #2 pick in the draft he has been alright but he hasn’t completely set the world on fire either. I’m not saying Miami is going to draft another RB high in the April draft but I would not get married to Brown in dynasty either. In 2007-Brown racked up close to 1,000 yards, almost 40 receptions, and 5 TD in a little less than 7 full games…this year he has 29 receptions for the season…he might never be a 50 catch back in this offense. IMHO, Brown is a guy you want to try to upgrade with by trading him away in dynasty.

Ricky Williams is a nice story but that is about it. 800 total yards and 5 TD, he made one of the best COP RBs in the entire NFL. He will likely be back as he is cheap for Miami at this point and no other teams will likely want to sign him. He serves a purpose in Miami.

WR: Everyone is going to talk about Miami upgrading the WR…why? Parcells teams with the Giants that won in 1986 and 1991…what great WR did those 2 teams have? McConkey and Ingram? Teddy Ginn Jr had 54/719/TD for the season…just 1 pass catching TD although he had 2 rushing and 1-2 more on returns IIRC. He will never justify the #9 overall pick in the draft, not sure if Miami can cut him and get out of some of that contract but he is one part of the Cam era I would like to see go. He has some great straight line speed but he is not an NFL WR on any level IMO.

Greg Camarillo was on pace for 80/900 and would have proved very reliable as a WR3 or flex in PPR leagues. He injured his knee but I would expect him back and ready to roll next year. Nothing flashy but he moves the sticks.

Davone Bess has filled in nicely for Camarillo. The undrafted rookie will finish with over 50 catches for the season. Look for him to be back next season with an expanded role on the team.

There certainly is room for better players at WR in Miami, just not sure you will see parcels bring in anyone that is a headache…the team is too fundamentally sound ot start getting loudmouths on the team.

TE: Fasano and Martin are a deadly duo at TE combining for 60/850/9TDs…you just would like to see more of it with 1 TE…Fasano did manage 6 of them and seems to be a favorite target at times for Penny…Fasano had little experience when he was traded to Miami but he looks good and I expect him to get better. 50 catches year in and year out with 5-6 TD is not unreasonable for Fasano…and penny loves to throw to the TE in this offense. They are open all the time it seems.

Outlook: Gotta like what they are putting together in Miami, but the offense is very spread out right now, will that continue?

New England Patriots

QB: Any talk that the Pats will sign Cassel and signal the end of the Tom Brady era is just silly. Cassel has been incredible down the stretch and anyone reading this should know by now that one of the best ways for QBs to learn the game and be groomed is to simply carry around the clipboard the first 2-3 years in the league which Cassel did. He had a learning curve at first but he quickly got things together and he is now set to go somewhere and sign for big money. He will likely be one of the hottest FA in a long time…ask yourself the last time a QB with his skills just pops up on the FA market? It really is a shame the Pats cannot get something for him in a trade…he would command a 1st round pick for starters. Brady will be back next year and owners that grabbed Cassel after Brady went down now find themselves with a nice little gem in dynasty leagues. SELL HIGH!!!

RB: Usual mess of Sammy Morris, Maroney, Faulk, Jordan…Faulk had 1,000 total yds, 57 receptions, 6 TDs…he was top30, that will never happen again. Morris is getting old and breaks down. Maroney is looking like a bust at this point. Jordan was hurt all year…don’t be surprised if they go draft a RB in round 2 or 3 with the idea of having them heavily involved in the offense. They need some stability at this position although it Is a nightmare for FF owners.

WR: Randy Moss despite Brady being out with the ACL injury, did post up 1,000 yds and 11 TD, nothing wrong with his game. A return of Brady and he will resume catching 80+ balls.

Welker, despite everyone saying he would be less targeted has 110 cathces and will likely move past his record of 112 last season. Not a lot of TDs but he is a nice WR2 in dynasty leagues with PPR. I cannot see the Pats bringing in a rookie WR anytime soon with what they already have.

TE: Watson is just a complete failure for owners at this point. He will likely fall outside of the 1st 15-20 TEs that are grabbed next year, maybe that is a good thing.

Overall: Well run organization, they will surely benefit from Bracdy back, but the team is set to win 11 games this year without Tom Brady…WOW!!!

New York Jets

QB: When the Jets signed Brett Favre, or traded for him, at the time I was talking to Wannabee and we both said why would a team that was only going to win 4-6 games anyways go out and make this move? And at the time we both thought it made them an 8 win team at best…if they lose to Miami on Sunday they will have beaten that prediction by only 1 game on the season, and they won’t be going to the playoffs either. I can’t see brett playing for long in New York. He doesn’t get along so well with his WR, he plays like he is approaching 40, all the good thing she did in 2007 seem like a distant memory and he could have just stayed retired and people would have talked about him going all the way to the NFC Championship and coming close to playing in a SB. The Jets have got to look at a long time solution and they will undoubtedly be in line to try and sing Cassel in Free Agency although I don’t think MC will sign with them but more on that in future releases. For the time being, if you saw a highly touted QB drafted by the Jets, I would look at drafting them in dynasty leagues as the Jets have to address this position for 2-3 years down the road, no way Favre will be there at that time.

RB: I think Jones and Washington have this thing pretty well sewn up. Jones has been a monster the 2nd half of the season for FF owners. Washington has chipped in some great playing time for the Jets too…not sure of his contract status but this tandem makes for a good 1-2 punch at RB for the Jets.

WR: Not a fan of Coles but he has been upset since the Jets released Penny. He got a new contract last off season so it is unlikely he is going anywhere. Cotchery surprisingly only posted 69/800/5TD…not what owners had in mind when they drafted him. I think he was simply OK when he was posting 80 catches but he is limited. Would not surprise me if the Jets try and upgrade somewhat at WR, but they are likely married to these two for the next year or two. These 2 are more efficient to me than explosive.

TE: Dustin Keller looks like he is going to be pretty good. 46/500/3TD are pretty nice numbers for a rookie.

Overall: Will Mangini stay? Will Favre play next year? Those are the two biggest questions when grading out the skill positions and what kind of position you want to take in dynasty leagues.

In Conclusion: It appears that the biggest questions in this division are where Cassel will end up…personally I think he would be best suited for a team that already is playoff team before he arrives, maybe even a team where the QB is aging and they need a long term solution…the Carolina Panthers certainly have to talked about as a great place for Cassel to land where he has a big time WR in Steve Smith, perhaps the best 1-2 punch at RB if not near the top of the NFL, and a good defense behind him. Cassel’s FA options almost need an entire thread dedicated to it.

 

[David Yudkin]

New England Patriots

QB:

It really is a shame the Pats cannot get something for him in a trade…he would command a 1st round pick for starters.

The latest that I have heard (which I don't believe will actually happen) is that the Pats will consider franchising Cassel and then trade him. The that same line of thinking has the Pats giving him up for a 2nd round pick, as teams will know that the Pats can't afford to keep Cassel on their roster and his $14 million cap charge would prohibit NE from signing or extending other players once free agency starts. Unless the Pats somehow have a trade lined up from the get go, I can't see this one playing out this way as they will have to set aside $28 million in cap room for Cassel and Brady as long as both would be on the roster (or franchised).Cassel, BTW, has been quoted recently as really wanting to stay in NE, but I think his agent would kill him if he came back for pennies on the dollar over starting someplace else for big money.

 

[Boston]

New England Patriots

QB:

It really is a shame the Pats cannot get something for him in a trade…he would command a 1st round pick for starters.

The latest that I have heard (which I don't believe will actually happen) is that the Pats will consider franchising Cassel and then trade him. The that same line of thinking has the Pats giving him up for a 2nd round pick, as teams will know that the Pats can't afford to keep Cassel on their roster and his $14 million cap charge would prohibit NE from signing or extending other players once free agency starts. Unless the Pats somehow have a trade lined up from the get go, I can't see this one playing out this way as they will have to set aside $28 million in cap room for Cassel and Brady as long as both would be on the roster (or franchised).Cassel, BTW, has been quoted recently as really wanting to stay in NE, but I think his agent would kill him if he came back for pennies on the dollar over starting someplace else for big money.

There is absolutely no way that the Pats are letting Cassell walk without getting something in return. They have spent four years developing him and he's too big of an asset to not get something back. Franchising him also prevents him from going to a team like the Jets unless they're willing to part with two #1's. My guess is he ends up in the NFC for a team like Tampa or San Fran...and I also think the Pats will get more than a #2 as I think there will be competition for his services.With regard to the MOPs post I have a few Patriot thoughts:

*I never quite understood why many thought Welker's 2007 season was his high point. BB and company brought him to Foxboro to be a reception machine that moves the chains. I see the last two years being par for the course with him as far as receptions go and I see his TD total going back to the 7-8 area in 2009 (i.e. I don't think it's a fluke that he's getting into the end zone lately with Cassell being more comfortable).

*The Pats need another RB in the mix. Faulk and Morris are quality backs but the key to their success is you don't ask them to do too much. They are high-end role players and in that situation they are very effective. I don't see Maroney back in 2009 (a lack of production and injuries is a bad combination). Two RBs that are free agents that could be factors are Sproles and Derrick Ward. Adding Sproles would give the Pats a big play threat who can help on special teams and I don't see the price tag being too much. Ward would would be a real nice fit but it's real difficult to guess what his worth will be on the open market. At the end of the day I would be blown away if another RB is not added.

*WR-Don't be surpriseed to see a big name added here. Chad Jax was a bust and Gaffney seemed to take a step backwards this year dropping some real catchable balls. A guy to watch is Chad Johnson. BB has always been a fan and he currently fits the mold (i.e. Moss and Dillon) of moves the Patriots have made in the past.

*The Pats could use an upgrade at TE. Watson is what he is at this point. A decent TE who really can't be trusted in big situations (who is no stranger to injuries as well). As for David Thomas it looks like he may not be anything more than a solid NFL backup.

 

[David Yudkin]

Getting back to Cassel for a minute, franchising him will not be as easy as it sounds. The Pats are about $2 million under the salary cap right now and would need $14 million in cap space in reserve to be able to franchise him (whether he signs the tender or not). The Pats have only 2 players (Harrsion at $3 million and Wright at $1.4 million) over $1 million in salary that are not signed past this year. (They have several guys coming off deals for close to the league minimum this year but those two are the only bigger contracts.)

I don't know how much the cap will go up next year, but NE would have to do a lot of creative accounting to squeeze Cassel in under the cap by March 1st (the start of free agency). And they CANNOT franchise him if they can't fit him under the cap. And the way Cassel is talking, I wouldn't totally rule out him staying on in NE if they give him at least a decent amount of money (although certainly not what he could get on the open market.)

 

[Boston]

Getting back to Cassel for a minute, franchising him will not be as easy as it sounds. The Pats are about $2 million under the salary cap right now and would need $14 million in cap space in reserve to be able to franchise him (whether he signs the tender or not). The Pats have only 2 players (Harrsion at $3 million and Wright at $1.4 million) over $1 million in salary that are not signed past this year. (They have several guys coming off deals for close to the league minimum this year but those two are the only bigger contracts.)I don't know how much the cap will go up next year, but NE would have to do a lot of creative accounting to squeeze Cassel in under the cap by March 1st (the start of free agency). And they CANNOT franchise him if they can't fit him under the cap. And the way Cassel is talking, I wouldn't totally rule out him staying on in NE if they give him at least a decent amount of money (although certainly not what he could get on the open market.)

*If Brady's healthy Cassel is a goner. He has a chance to start and make big $...he's not going to stay in Foxboro as a backup making far less than he could. The kid has made minimal money to date and this is his chance to score real big. That opportunity may only come once. I've heard him talk but that's just him being politically correct and saying theright things.*The salary cap is a tricky issue but I just don't see him hitting the open market without the Pats getting some compensation. How they accomplish this will be interesting but I do believe they'll figure out a way. The x-factor in all of this is Brady's health but with the Pats I don't expect to hear much about that...IMO the only clues you're going to get is how they handle Cassel. That will be the indicator about how they feel Brady is progressing.

 

[Carver]

There is no way in the world that NE doesn't franchise Cassel. None. He will get tagged, and there will be a bidding war for him. No doubt about it.

 

[Pat Patriot]

There is no way in the world that NE doesn't franchise Cassel. None. He will get tagged, and there will be a bidding war for him. No doubt about it.

I'm with Yudkin. I have been saying all along that I dont think the Pats will be able to franchise him. However, I was saying that 5 weeks ago before Cassel displayed the consistency of his talent that he has over the last 8 weeks of the season.This is going to be tough for the Patriots to tie up that much cap space without restructuring Brady's contract or making a number of tough cuts.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

There is no way in the world that NE doesn't franchise Cassel. None. He will get tagged, and there will be a bidding war for him. No doubt about it.

I'm with Yudkin. I have been saying all along that I dont think the Pats will be able to franchise him. However, I was saying that 5 weeks ago before Cassel displayed the consistency of his talent that he has over the last 8 weeks of the season.This is going to be tough for the Patriots to tie up that much cap space without restructuring Brady's contract or making a number of tough cuts.

The cap issues will only ultimately manifest themselves if all the teams who desperately need a quarterback are able to resist the temptation to bid for Cassel. Wouldn't you have to conclude that they will never be able to resist such a temptation?!?

 

[David Yudkin]

There is no way in the world that NE doesn't franchise Cassel. None. He will get tagged, and there will be a bidding war for him. No doubt about it.

I'm with Yudkin. I have been saying all along that I dont think the Pats will be able to franchise him. However, I was saying that 5 weeks ago before Cassel displayed the consistency of his talent that he has over the last 8 weeks of the season.This is going to be tough for the Patriots to tie up that much cap space without restructuring Brady's contract or making a number of tough cuts.

The cap issues will only ultimately manifest themselves if all the teams who desperately need a quarterback are able to resist the temptation to bid for Cassel. Wouldn't you have to conclude that they will never be able to resist such a temptation?!?

Pats can't trade Cassel unless he's franchised. And at the moment they can't franchise him without making some other roster or accounting moves. Other teams can't make offers to Cassel until March 1st. So the Pats have until then to figure out what they are doing.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

There is no way in the world that NE doesn't franchise Cassel. None. He will get tagged, and there will be a bidding war for him. No doubt about it.

I'm with Yudkin. I have been saying all along that I dont think the Pats will be able to franchise him. However, I was saying that 5 weeks ago before Cassel displayed the consistency of his talent that he has over the last 8 weeks of the season.This is going to be tough for the Patriots to tie up that much cap space without restructuring Brady's contract or making a number of tough cuts.

The cap issues will only ultimately manifest themselves if all the teams who desperately need a quarterback are able to resist the temptation to bid for Cassel. Wouldn't you have to conclude that they will never be able to resist such a temptation?!?

Pats can't trade Cassel unless he's franchised. And at the moment they can't franchise him without making some other roster or accounting moves. Other teams can't make offers to Cassel until March 1st. So the Pats have until then to figure out what they are doing.

So basically it's a timing problem? They can't figure out how to manipulate cap within the rules to buy enough time for a trade to go through? A (ridiculous example): could they work contingent contracts with their top 8 players to free up 12 MM on a contingent basis if Cassel agreed to a similar contingent contract? In such a scenario, the top 8 would agree to hypothetical cuts knowing that Cassel was agreeing to being cut without compensation after such and such a date? I'm reaching here, I know...

 

[David Yudkin]

There is no way in the world that NE doesn't franchise Cassel. None. He will get tagged, and there will be a bidding war for him. No doubt about it.

I'm with Yudkin. I have been saying all along that I dont think the Pats will be able to franchise him. However, I was saying that 5 weeks ago before Cassel displayed the consistency of his talent that he has over the last 8 weeks of the season.This is going to be tough for the Patriots to tie up that much cap space without restructuring Brady's contract or making a number of tough cuts.

The cap issues will only ultimately manifest themselves if all the teams who desperately need a quarterback are able to resist the temptation to bid for Cassel. Wouldn't you have to conclude that they will never be able to resist such a temptation?!?

Pats can't trade Cassel unless he's franchised. And at the moment they can't franchise him without making some other roster or accounting moves. Other teams can't make offers to Cassel until March 1st. So the Pats have until then to figure out what they are doing.

So basically it's a timing problem? They can't figure out how to manipulate cap within the rules to buy enough time for a trade to go through? A (ridiculous example): could they work contingent contracts with their top 8 players to free up 12 MM on a contingent basis if Cassel agreed to a similar contingent contract? In such a scenario, the top 8 would agree to hypothetical cuts knowing that Cassel was agreeing to being cut without compensation after such and such a date? I'm reaching here, I know...

While I'm not 100% sure, I do not believe that players can have provisional (ie short term situational) contract clauses. they can renegotiate but then cannot "undo" those changes. The rules allow for only one contract rework per year, so you couldn't change it on Sunday and reverse it on say Friday.I'm not saying it would be impossible, but the other hurdle is that the Pats have a lot of guys due for extensions and who have contracts up after next year. Those include Richard Seymour, Vince Wolfork, Mike Vrabel, Logan Mankins, Jarvis Green, Kevin Faulk, Steven Neal, Ellis Hobbs, Nick Kaczur, and some other less vital players. In theory, they could get these guys extensions to free up some cap room. Brady is underpaid, so while he's a potential candidate to try to save some money I'm not sure NE would do much with him until they feel confident he will be 100%. Not saying Cassel could not be franchised, just trying to figure out logistically how they could finagle it.