There were only 33 TD passes Week 1 going into Monday Night (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

61 TD passes Wk 1-2019
52 TD passes Wk 1-2020
61 TD passes Wk 1 -2021
51 TD passes Wk 1-2022

Just 33 in Week 1 in 2024, what conclusions if any can we draw?
Why has this number dipped so much and why in a pass happy league is the downward trajectory in TD passes from what we've seen prior?
That has a massive impact on WRs and TEs and RBs as well and might be part of why there is such a dry market on most waiver wires

Why aren't there more 40-50 TD pass seasons for QBs? 5,000+ yds passing shouldn't be such a hurdle as it was when Marino did it in '84
I'd like to know why folks think this is happening
I believe these training camps where players don't even take the field for a single drive and then just start the season is impacting early play in the NFL

 

[Gally]

I believe these training camps where players don't even take the field for a single drive and then just start the season is impacting early play in the NFL

This is for sure a big factor into the disjointed and lackluster play. Passing game work will be the most affected because it does take timing to be effective. With the timing off it's going to take a big hit on producing. I believe the lack of playing i pre-season is the biggest reason for this happening.

 

[Gatorade]

They pay these QBs so much these days, that they cannot afford an injury in preseason. Very few looked sharp, even the ones that did play preseason.

 

[Snotbubbles]

61 TD passes Wk 1-2019
52 TD passes Wk 1-2020
61 TD passes Wk 1 -2021
51 TD passes Wk 1-2022

Just 33 in Week 1 in 2024, what conclusions if any can we draw?
Why has this number dipped so much and why in a pass happy league is the downward trajectory in TD passes from what we've seen prior?
That has a massive impact on WRs and TEs and RBs as well and might be part of why there is such a dry market on most waiver wires

Why aren't there more 40-50 TD pass seasons for QBs? 5,000+ yds passing shouldn't be such a hurdle as it was when Marino did it in '84
I'd like to know why folks think this is happening
I believe these training camps where players don't even take the field for a single drive and then just start the season is impacting early play in the NFL

How many TDS in Wk 1 - 2023?

 

[Anarchy99]

How many TDS in Wk 1 - 2023?

37 I believe.

 

[need2know]

thats pretty crazy

 

[Ministry of Pain]

thats pretty crazy

Lot of young arms in the league also has something to do with it

 

[jm192]

I agree it's the lack of pre-season snaps/looks. The NFL as a whole has felt a little slow to get going the past few years. We'll be fine come week 4 or 5. But yeah, not the most exciting week 1.

 

[(HULK)]

61 TD passes Wk 1-2019
52 TD passes Wk 1-2020
61 TD passes Wk 1 -2021
51 TD passes Wk 1-2022

Just 33 in Week 1 in 2024, what conclusions if any can we draw?
Why has this number dipped so much and why in a pass happy league is the downward trajectory in TD passes from what we've seen prior?
That has a massive impact on WRs and TEs and RBs as well and might be part of why there is such a dry market on most waiver wires

Why aren't there more 40-50 TD pass seasons for QBs? 5,000+ yds passing shouldn't be such a hurdle as it was when Marino did it in '84
I'd like to know why folks think this is happening
I believe these training camps where players don't even take the field for a single drive and then just start the season is impacting early play in the NFL

How many TDS in Wk 1 - 2023?

That's what I'm wondering too. If it was also lower, it might contribute to the narrative that the shorter preseason and lack of snaps for starters results in less scoring in week 1.

 

[packdog]

i wouldn't put it all on lack of preseason reps. we have a higher amount of qbs running in for tds. just running qbs in general are increasing. also a changing of the guard as some guys fade away and new guys get drafted and are different. in 2019 we still had eli, brees, rivers, ryan, bigben, etc. as more pocket passer types. arod and purdy will likely boost the pass tds by 2-5 i think tonight

 

[Max Power]

Any fallout related to forcing the tackles closer to the line? That has to be a net negative to QB play.

 

[jon_mx]

Perhaps part of the issue is this trend that most teams believe a QB must be mobile, so we are getting a ton of great running QBs, but not as many who can stay in the pocket and read defenses and throw accurately. And oddly, fantasy football could be playing a bit of a role in this trend as it values a running QB more than it should. There is so much narrative which pumps up these running QBs because they put out massive fantasy points.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Even Mahomes only had 1 with all the new toys he has.

 

[Scoresman]

I don't think this is new. TDs, especially passing have been down for a few seasons now and it seems like this is the new normal.

Previous analysis into this revealed it was due to a combination of Cover 2 defenses, poor O line play, and the retiring of many great QBs (Brady/Brees/Manning, etc) .

 

[Anarchy99]

I think some of it stems from teams with new environments. There were 3 rookies starting yesterday, 5 others were playing for a new team, and 6 were returning from being injured at the end of last year and were probably rusty. When you factor in teams with new head coaches and offensive coordinators, it paints a pretty clear picture that a lot of situations were in transition.

 

[Anarchy99]

There were also 16 QB so far this week that had fewer than 200 passing yards.

 

[Uncle Leo]

None so far in MNF. Very weird indeed.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

At least some of the blame falls on Daniel Jones and Bryce Young.

 

[Zow]

They pay these QBs so much these days, that they cannot afford an injury in preseason. Very few looked sharp, even the ones that did play preseason.

Agreed. While teams are understandably limiting the preseason to avoid injury, seems like QBs come into the season a little raw for NFL game speed.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Another Rushing TD. That’s 3 on MNF. Will we get a passing score tonight? This is crazy!

 

[Buckna]

Just flashed some info on MNF, 5th fewest passing yards per game in a given week in 20 years.

 

[BobbyLayne]

There was a LOT of bad offensive line play this week.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I don't think this is new. TDs, especially passing have been down for a few seasons now and it seems like this is the new normal.

Previous analysis into this revealed it was due to a combination of Cover 2 defenses, poor O line play, and the retiring of many great QBs (Brady/Brees/Manning, etc) .

2 good podcasts discussing these trends which have been going on for a few years and their evolution

A Sports Mystery: What Happened to the NFL Quarterback?

Today, a mystery about what some people consider the most important position in sports: What the hell is going on with the NFL quarterback? We are two weeks int

podcasts.apple.com

Jayden Daniels coming-out party, another big night for Josh Allen, concerns for the Bengals defense, and the reasons why offenses have fallen behind with Mitch Schwartz

Look, NFL, you can give us as many two-game Monday nights as you want, so long as we get to watch quarterback performances like we saw from Jayden Daniels, Josh

podcasts.apple.com

Another big element is that the value of finding a good qb on a rookie contract is so high, that teams generally prefer to try to do that as opposed to having a decent veteran qb. 20 years ago, half the teams would probably just start a dalton or Flacco or tannehill type, but now those teams are trying to extract the value of the rookie contract qb.

Mitch Schwartz did wonder aloud why teams are so willing to pay top dollar for anyone who is like a top half of the league qb after the rookie contract rather than just the top 5 or so, since this incentive is so strong. It seems like teams are willing to take the risk when they don’t have much, but once they get to a certain threshold, they become much more risk averse.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Passing TDs are back!!!