Where is it? I can’t seem to find it?There’s a whole topic about this that I started recently. Definitely worth a read-through.
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Things we've learned already in 2021 that we should write down and commit to memory NOW! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
A question for all the skill proponents: How many TE1's (through week 7) in your league were on the waiver wire during week one?
In my TE Premium dynasty league (where 43 TEs are rostered across 12 teams), 3 of the top 11 were not even rostered during week one - Schultz, Knox, and Uzomah. Luckily, in a TE-starved world, I was able to grab one.
In my TE Premium dynasty league (where 43 TEs are rostered across 12 teams), 3 of the top 11 were not even rostered during week one - Schultz, Knox, and Uzomah. Luckily, in a TE-starved world, I was able to grab one.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well I don't know but I'm sure it is comparable to what you found. I am in 38 TE premium redrafts and took one of, and sometimes two of Kelce, Waller, Pitts, Hockenson, Andrews in almost all of them. I also took Gesicki in several. I make TE a priority in that format and those that have emerged from the waiver wire have found their way onto many of my rosters as well. I didn't get Knox or Shultz but I'm not hurting either. But, anybody that wants to advocate for waiting on TE in a TE premium format can make that case as well. I didn't want to do it this year. But in 2019 I had several high finishes, including 3rd in the FPC, by waiting on TE. And it was with the duo of Andrews (8th round) and Waller (17th), so go figure. I'm not a genius for drafting these top 5 guys everywhere but it is working out so far. I managed to fade Kittle as well. We'll see if these guys can keep it up. It is a big advantage.
The reason I dont like going RB/RB anymore is RBs ALWAYS get hurt and are ALWAYS available on the WW. How many stud WR become available on Waivers during a season? Last year was Jefferson. This year out of the top 36 week 8 WRs I only see Patterson who I would consider an every week starter as being undrafted. Meanwhile, your top 24 RBs have Hubbard, Patterson, DWilliams, Mitchell, Herbert, Booker, and Gainwell all picked up off waivers this season.
no one is saying pick wr off waivers. People saying pick them after round 2. Not sure how that affects your comment about rb in first two rounds. Plenty of value to be had for wide receivers after you go rb/rb.
also people say to stack running backs on your bench. Doesn’t mean you can’t do that after getting 2 Rb in first round. Then if they get injured you have backups or if they don’t you Have flex starts and trade bait.
Aj brown / davante/ Hopkins / waller / kittle all missed games so not like injuries are exclusive to RB in first two rounds.
I just don’t know that going WR / WR is viable anymore. Cant see Qb / wr or TE / QB or te / wr either unless Kelce.
you can do it yeah. But you’re working a lot harder. And those guys can’t even compare to Jonathan Taylor / eckler/ chubb guys. Even if they miss a couple games they still way better.
plus the guys you mentioned are only Temporary as the incumbent is supposed to return. Or they could get injured too cause they also run the ball.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Swift looked good Sunday no doubt. It also depends on your subs. I’m in a yardage-only league and I’m sitting Hopkins on a short week, picked up Cobb and probably will use him instead.
FairWarning
Footballguy
If you bet the under rushing yards of the top 12 RBs going into your draft, you will win 75%. I’m a firm believer that you may not win if your 1st rounder hits, but it’s likely you won’t if it busts.
Chaka
Footballguy
Hey brother I am not trying to single you out, or troll or anything like that.
But that draft sounds so very boring.
If you know RBs are going to be the top 20 of 24 picks or whatever, what's the point?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I drafted CMC 1.01 and I’m 6-1 leading my league in points.
the draft has more than 1 round.
Point taken. I think most optimal strategies are often boring and not unusual or exotic because they are tried and true. If your goal was entertainment then yeah, you disregard optimal strategy. I honestly feel like most of my drafts end up this way anyway. Sometimes people try stuff different and then they notice they get crushed and go back to it. I actually went WR-WR in two of my leagues this year because i had crap choices for RB when it hit me at the end of R1. I avoided the pitfalls of drafting poorly in R1 and 2 but I can't seem to makeup for losing a true RB1 even with a carousel of WW backups in Herberts/Collins/Murrays/etc and all the mid round Gordons/Sermons/Jamaal Williams aren't helping. And at worst you miss and blow your load on someone like Ty'Son or Elijah Mitchell because you thought they'd be studs ROS. Even R3 guys like Montgomery/Edwards/Davis/Jacobs/Carson didn't pan out.
You can adjust scoring / rostering / and other stuff like that to encourage non-RB positions to be weighted higher but even in PPR leagues I find that RBs get wiped out after round 2.
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FairWarning
Footballguy
That’s very impressive considering you lose the 1st overall pick and 22 are off the board before you picked again. The CMC guy in both of my leagues is in last. Heck, I have two wins and out of my top 6 picks - three are out, 2 have had nagging injuries all season, and thr 6th I waived (M Davis).
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Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah that's the crux of my issue. I completely understand that your leagues have an optimal strategy and if my league had similar format I would absolutely follow that strategy.
I just find any league that has an optimal strategy to be kind of dull.
I am not suggesting one is better than the other but I like leaving the first round where the first 12 picks saw 6 RBs, 4 QBs & 2 WRs come off the board. No one would bat an eye if it was 6 WRs or 6 QBs. I propose rules every season in an attempt to balance positional value.
I have been trying for years to get my league mates to separate the WR & TE positions. Next season I am going to suggest moving from 1 PPR to 0.5 PPR and change starting lineups to require only one mandatory RB instead of two
I don't know if it improves strategy at all, probably not, but I love that predicting positional runs is so much tougher. And there really doesn't seem to be a consistent lineup construction that always makes the playoffs.
I moved to superflex 1 RB 2 WR 1 TE 3 flex a long time ago. It's my league's favorite change. It just makes more sense considering how rare elite RBs are and I wanted to encourage creativity. However, I keep seeing people going RB/RB/RB/RB every year and it does get boring and very hard for zero RB to thrive in that environment lol. Also had 6 pt TD / 20 yard passing points to heighted QB value and .25 PPR. Wanted to move to .5 next year because RB is too highly valued.Yeah that's the crux of my issue. I completely understand that your leagues have an optimal strategy and if my league had similar format I would absolutely follow that strategy.
I just find any league that has an optimal strategy to be kind of dull.
I am not suggesting one is better than the other but I like leaving the first round where the first 12 picks saw 6 RBs, 4 QBs & 2 WRs come off the board. No one would bat an eye if it was 6 WRs or 6 QBs. I propose rules every season in an attempt to balance positional value.
I have been trying for years to get my league mates to separate the WR & TE positions. Next season I am going to suggest moving from 1 PPR to 0.5 PPR and change starting lineups to require only one mandatory RB instead of two
I don't know if it improves strategy at all, probably not, but I love that predicting positional runs is so much tougher. And there really doesn't seem to be a consistent lineup construction that always makes the playoffs.
I think 2 QB or 1 QB / super QB flex league is probably the way to go in order to increase value of QBs but many people think that is sacrilege and it is the hardest sell.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, some guys always follow the same strategy regardless of league configuration. It's tough when the overwhelming majority of information relates to 1 QB leagues.
There are so many different configurations it's definitely fun to play around with them and see if you can identify the exploits and capitalize upon them. I love zagging when others zig.
You really should try guillotine leagues. I've been so bored with standard because people more or less figured it out. Guillotine league is so new that no one has figured it out yet so it's like the first years when everyone just started playing FF. Was very resistant at first because most people hate change and walk into something with a handicap but it's the only league I care about now.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah they sound interesting but is it correct that your season could be over after week 1?
I think the FBG Subscriber Contest scratches that itch for me.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Zero RB is dead and forever will be dead.
Talent over opportunity 9 out of 10 times. Situations change real fast in the NFL- don't assume things will be the same week after week with some players who are struggling or coaching that could get fired.
Don't fall for "value" traps anymore with ambigiousness. The market is too smart now to have Swift where he was and Jamaal Williams where he was.
Almost all NFL offenses score tons of points. Even bad real life NFL teams have fantasy value- get your Bias out of it
Also, just in general, question your automatic bias towards any transaction or draft. Having like "this guy sucks he won't do anything in this situation" is a bad Bias and can lead you to failing to pick up players like C-Patt. "Oh he's 30 years old that's too late to breakout" is also a bad bias.
Talent over opportunity 9 out of 10 times. Situations change real fast in the NFL- don't assume things will be the same week after week with some players who are struggling or coaching that could get fired.
Don't fall for "value" traps anymore with ambigiousness. The market is too smart now to have Swift where he was and Jamaal Williams where he was.
Almost all NFL offenses score tons of points. Even bad real life NFL teams have fantasy value- get your Bias out of it
Also, just in general, question your automatic bias towards any transaction or draft. Having like "this guy sucks he won't do anything in this situation" is a bad Bias and can lead you to failing to pick up players like C-Patt. "Oh he's 30 years old that's too late to breakout" is also a bad bias.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
A lot to write about:
Always look at O Lines when assessing QB play, but look at volume when assessing RBs. A bad o line will kill a qbs value more than a RB, but a RBs volume will go down if the QB can't stay upright.
Always look at the "second guy (WR)" on a team with a new QB. Woods, K Allen, etc seem to be the talk of the beginning of the season but Kupp and Williams have been the stars.
Rookie QBs are just that: Rookies. Regardless of talent there will be an adjustment to the game. The exceptions (Marino, Luck, Manning, Herbert, Murray) are a smaller sample than you think.
The RB dead zone is a real thing.
Finally, all the work you do, there is still something you are going to miss. Elijah Mitchell? Cordarelle? WTF????
Always look at O Lines when assessing QB play, but look at volume when assessing RBs. A bad o line will kill a qbs value more than a RB, but a RBs volume will go down if the QB can't stay upright.
Always look at the "second guy (WR)" on a team with a new QB. Woods, K Allen, etc seem to be the talk of the beginning of the season but Kupp and Williams have been the stars.
Rookie QBs are just that: Rookies. Regardless of talent there will be an adjustment to the game. The exceptions (Marino, Luck, Manning, Herbert, Murray) are a smaller sample than you think.
The RB dead zone is a real thing.
Finally, all the work you do, there is still something you are going to miss. Elijah Mitchell? Cordarelle? WTF????
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
my “dead zone” RB picks:
Henderson
JaWill
The “dead zone” is observational hyperbole, and an overly simplified way of saying that “running backs drafted later are worse than running backs drafted earlier.” It’s a phrase that I was already sick of the second time I’d read it.
It was this year’s buzzy thing to type about by writers desperate for content in the off-season trying to coin a new phrase.
If you pick the right players in those rounds, there’s no “zone”. It’s just doing due diligence on those players in those rounds so that you don’t take the ones likely to bust.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
CMC -> Mixon -> Ridley -> Moore -> Pitts -> Henderson -> Higgins -> JaWill -> Stafford
It also helps that it's IDP & I have the 2nd ranked defensive squad in the league by points for.
FairWarning
Footballguy
If you score the worst in week 1 out of 18 teams then you probably deserve to lose. Out of 18 teams, you can bet some teams draft poorly and pickup guys who don't start for 10 weeks due to pre-season injury (i.e. Thomas). I think they even offer insurance on it so you can join a new Guillotine league in week 2 or get credit for fee next year. Probability wise, you have a 94% chance of not getting cut or 17/18 survival rate. They have new ones each week for people who get cut. Until you get to like 9 teams which is like 10 weeks in, you have over 90% chance of survival with doing nothing.
Survive past week 1 and then you can pickup Derrick Henry week 2 or some other stud and coast the rest of the season. That's the difference between this and subscriber contest. Eliminated teams get cut but surviving teams get to bid on star players. Makes for a ton of strategy and makes every player matter regardless of whether they are on your team or not.
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Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
HSG: Not arguing that point, but inside that dead zone it's not "knowledge", its luck. When you draft the top 7-10 RBs only injury really kills their value. 11 and on its just a crapshoot. Gus Edwards fell to me at the end of the 6th round and I was all "woo hoo" and then he was dead a few days later. Swift, Henderson, and JWIll seem to be the needles from that particular haystack, but 3-5 rounds later you have Pollard, Chubba, Both Williams boys etc. Javonte and Gordon are two decent starters there too, but you are banking on injury there.my “dead zone” RB picks:
Henderson
JaWill
The “dead zone” is observational hyperbole, and an overly simplified way of saying that “running backs drafted later are worse than running backs drafted earlier.” It’s a phrase that I was already sick of the second time I’d read it.
It was this year’s buzzy thing to type about by writers desperate for content in the off-season trying to coin a new phrase.
If you pick the right players in those rounds, there’s no “zone”. It’s just doing due diligence on those players in those rounds so that you don’t take the ones likely to bust.
(To be fair, the third WR tier was that way this year: Keenan, Mclaurin, ARob were all bunched together as were Woods and Kupp, but agian only one of those guys is a complete bust this year)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That doesn’t mean the “dead zone” is a thing, it just means there are more reliable picks at the position in the 1st 3-4 rounds. Which is already an obvious statement without the cute coin of phrase.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
what I hate is when you build your draft around getting the 1 or 2 elite rbs in the later rounds like Henderson and they get picked by the guy before you and it completely messes up your draft if they were supposed to be your set it and forget it starter. Then you end up with an edwards afterwards that you hate but were the best available rb and you need an rb. Dead zone is an apt nick name for me cause I’m mostly dead cause everyone’s gunning for the last perceived stud rb lol.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hahaha - ok, fair.tigerz said:
I took CMC/Mixon in the 1st 3 rounds, so my “dead zone” guys supplemented those picks.
i’ve tried the “sleeper back” 3-4-5 round RB strategy before & I’ve run into that a bunch. If you already have a couple studs, you can afford to miss those guys. But if you hit, you’re pretty set and can survive the volatility of the position.
And you also have to get lucky hoping they’re mot all hurt at once. Handcuffing is also important. See; Chubba & Perine.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Arguably it did. ARob & Keenan Allen have been disappointing, Higgins missed time with the shoulder & hasn’t had a breakout game yet, etc. quite a few WRs from the 4-7 round have been less than advertised this year.
The only proven "strategy" to work is to hit on you picks. It really doesn't matter if you go RB/RB or QB/WR or TE/WR anything else in between. If you happen to take guys that underperform or get injured in your first two picks (regardless of position) you will likely not fair well. I have won leagues drafting any number of combinations and the common thread in all the league I won was that the picks hit and did as I expected when I drafted them. The actual positions didn't really matter.tigerz said:
This also falls into the luck v skill debate. You can make all the perfect picks at the time of the draft based on all your skill and research and then half of them get hurt and you are toast. Granted you can work the waiver wire and put in the effort (skill?) to get replacements and might be able to turn it around and put up huge points only to lose to the last place team who happens to have some WR3 get three TD's and 180 yds that week and although you would have beaten everyone else that week you happen to lose to that "lucky" owner. Bottom line is that "skill" is easily found these days with the thousands of websites and cheatsheets available to everybody. All the information is out there and easily found. Gone are the days of doing your own research where you didn't have to rely on 5 month old fantasy football magazines. Heck I have seen a bunch of times the owner that couldn't make the draft and autodrafted win leagues more often than expected. I do agree the guys that put in the time and work will always be in the playoffs (or close to it) but once there luck is the only thing that matters significantly.
Yeah, I agree with what you are saying but I point out that there's a reason the early rounds are heavy RB picks and middle rounds are heavy WR picks and late rounds have a lot of backup RBs taken. The market prices them that way based on perceived probabilities of success based on perceived safety and volume. So might as well pick the value within the rounds presented. Otherwise you have to makeup for it later in draft. I don't perceive to know more than every other manager so I contend that going with the boring strategy of going RB first makes sense given the amount of RB talent in that round.
And it's just so hard to hit your picks if you can't actually pick the guy you wanted and researched in the later rounds. If I miss Zeke I can pick Kamara. If I miss Damien Harris I'm stuck with Melvin Gordon or Jamaal Williams. The tier drop offs are massive and everyone knows this so it's hard to be assured you'll get your guy. But if you are shopping for a WR2 around this area you are more likely to get it as there's more of those than lead RBs in non-committee roles.
Again, agree its luck. But not getting the guys you want is super frustrating and regardless of your draft style its hard to consistently hit picks after the first 5 rounds.
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This is why auctions are much, much better than drafts.......and should be the only way any startup dynasty league begins.
I really want to do this but half my league will leave if I do this. People hate change so much. Think this one is even harder than the 2 QB change.
One way I have found that actually worked really well as an introduction is to do the first 5 rounds as an auction. That way everyone gets a taste but it then goes to draft. The draft order is based on whoever has the most money left after the auction (so it adds a bit to strategy as well). It's something I have been able to talk some leagues into and eventually they all convert.
Interesting. I'm assuming the only way you can institute this is if you used myfantasyleague.com? Which raises another barrier of cheapskates who don't want to pay when ESPN is free lol.
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Actually we have only done it live. Auctions on line suck. So much better in person.
My dynasty league as a restricted free agent (RFA) auction every year prior to the draft. We do it live (or now via zoom or equal for the couple out of towners). We have a salary cap and if you have extra money after your keepers then you can bid on RFA players and the previous owner has the right to match the winning bid if he has enough cap space (hence restricted free agents). Then we roll into the rookie draft which then includes all players not on any teams so it's more than just rookies. Our league is on MFL but we don't really use the site for the auction portion. You could just do the auction live and then do the online draft once completed. Then you just use the auction results to fill in the first 5 rounds and go from there.
OK - back to the topic.
Every year I do miss out on some guys late because I think I can wait another round or it's just too early to take the guy. I always kick myself when I look back at the draft and realize I would have been much better off just reaching for the guy I wanted (and believed in) then trying to get better "value" with the pick. In the end "draft pick value" really means nothing once the season gets going. I need to make a note to just take a player I believed in when I have the chance. I actually did that with Kupp this year and got him in three leagues because if it. I really believed in him being a top 5 guy so "reached" for him and am happy I did.
Every year I do miss out on some guys late because I think I can wait another round or it's just too early to take the guy. I always kick myself when I look back at the draft and realize I would have been much better off just reaching for the guy I wanted (and believed in) then trying to get better "value" with the pick. In the end "draft pick value" really means nothing once the season gets going. I need to make a note to just take a player I believed in when I have the chance. I actually did that with Kupp this year and got him in three leagues because if it. I really believed in him being a top 5 guy so "reached" for him and am happy I did.
Honestly, because I believe luck is a huge factor in FF, I prefer to pick a team of players I liked and wanted rather than picked based on value. It just wasn't as fun having a technically sound team of value players that you never cared about. I reached for Brady over Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and people looked at me like I was crazy. But I knew I probably wouldn't get him 22 picks later and I thought he would be #1 this year and he ended up doing just that. Maybe I would have gotten him for value but it would be more likely I barely miss him because I'm trying to be cute cause I think he'd be there a round later.
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FairWarning
Footballguy
When drafting on the ends, I think you are doing it the right way. You can’t worry about value because may be your only shot at a player. The challenge is identifying those reach players.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Hopkins with 13 snaps last night. Sucks as I benched him for Cobb, but it’s yardage-only. Hopkins is basically worthless for the rest of the year now. Basically untradable now with the upcoming trade deadline and hurt.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Benard/Hubba/Pollard/Williams
Edwards/RoJo/Penny/Singletary
Bell/Cohen/Ekeler/Harris (2nd place)
Fournette/Henry/Henderson/Mattison/McKissic
What do those guys have in common? Currently my RBs on first place draft and go teams.
Plenty of strategies work. First two are zero RB. Next is heavy early capital. Last is stud early and then middling backs. If you make more good picks than bad regardless of position and avoid injuries, you'll have a good season.
Insein
Footballguy
Just stating what's already been said, getting a stud RB (and lucking into them not getting hurt) makes things so much easier. Took Zeke in redraft this year at 1.03. I was regretting it the first few weeks and had wished I took Tyreek instead but now after 7 weeks, it's obvious this was the right way to go. I'm not hurting at the RB position because I have that cornerstone where as years past I would always be scrambling trying to trade whatever I could for a stud RB and of course no one is selling.
fightingillini
Footballguy
There isn't a better feeling than putting 15+ points on the RB1 line week in and week out. Sure it's nice to have Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams, but I have playing FF for 22 years, and I can't recall any league winner in any of my leagues winning with a below average running game.
the problem with the analysis is it’s obvious that if you hit all your picks you will be successful… not sure that was ever in question.
just because you were successful doesn’t mean others were who did same strategy as you. people picking from same pools as you get more bad picks than good because there is less talent and safety in later rounds.
you might say someone like you who is great at picking can be more successful more times than not because of this year. Or that you can set lineups properly play matches or that injuries happen to a lot of rb and you can just have the backups and plenty on waiver.
And you’re right… you in your specific circumstances and league may be able to pull it off sometimes. In fact, I could auto draft and win a championship without ever picking Up anyone. Doesn’t mean it’s likely or easy.
what we’re saying is that all strategies have difficulties but it’s a lot harder to make your strategy work and a lot more risky because it’s dependent on hitting guys on waiver and late rounds where there is less talent and probability of bust is higher.
you may argue based on your experience rb in round 1 and 2 is injured more often. But these are all just off the cuff remarks based on a small sample size of experience. Not true probabilities that prove your strategy is better.
injuries aside, you are more likely to get good rbs in round 1 and 2 then get lucky in later rounds. You are more likely to find good wr in mid rounds and good qbs in late rounds. Not sure why people don’t think this is true. It’s why most people draft like this and we don’t have 10 wide receivers go in first round.
Everyone is going for the same sleeper and handcuff rb in later rounds and waivers even if they didn’t go zero rb. The only difference is you were luckier. Don’t think there’s such a thing as someone who is a genius at picking sleepers.
it really all comes down to luck. If everyone drafts same strategy then only luck separates you. That’s why people want to say other strategies work because they want to say it’s skill. Except those people just got lucky and picked right guys as well. And I think you could argue they are actually way luckier because of the difficulty with sub optimal strategies.
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FairWarning
Footballguy
The probability of busting late is greater, but the real killer is busting in the early rounds. We are more likely to keep playing them and the results don’t change. It’s hard to get full value in a trade, nor can you cut them.
agree with you Tigerz, you can win with any strategy,
agree with you Tigerz, you can win with any strategy,
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