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Things you thought you'd never say 2 months ago... (1 Viewer)

Trading Phillip Rivers for TRich was an awful decision.

Drafting David Wilson was an awful decision.

I regret drafting Ray Rice 5th overall.

I should have taken Peyton Manning in the first.

Thank heavens I picked up the KC def or I'd be no where near 1st place.

A SD RB not named Mathews and a WR not named Floyd or Brown might save my season.

 
Khy said:
Sabertooth said:
Khy said:
Bankerguy said:
Jordan Reed is the best rookie in the NFL right now.
That says a lot about this years class.
Terrance Williams?
Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Geno Smith, Gio Bernard, Eddie Lacy? Those five offensive rookies are all having much, much, much better seasons than Jordan Reed who has more or less a single good game all season. No to mention the like... 4-5 defensive rookies in contention. Either way, it'd be overkill to even consider Reed Top 10 at this point.
Lol. Reed is top 10 at his position...which of those other players is also top 10 at his position?
That isn't what you said... you said he's the top rookie. And no, I don't think I'd say he's without a doubt a Top 10 TE.

Jimmy Graham

Jordan Cameron

Julius Thomas

Vernon Davis

Antonio Gates

Jason Witten

Martellus Bennett

Tony Gonzalez

Charles Clay

Jermichael Finley

Are 10 guys that at this very point without taking injuries into account that I would want over Reed. He had one massive game, lets not go crowning him OROY. It's also a lot easier to be a Top 10 TE than it is to be a Top 10 WR, RB, QB or Top 10 LB, DE, CB etc.

There's only 32 "starting" TEs in the NFL and only about 10-12 teams actually feature TEs in their systems. Being a Top 10 TE to me isn't nearly as impressive as being a Top 20 WR (Keenan Allen) or a Top 15 QB (Geno Smith) in your rookie year. Not to mention that WR and QB takes a considerable amount more talent to play than TE. WRs tend to run significantly more complex routes and have more skilled defenders covering them. QBs are field generals, they have to make all the play calling adjustments on the fly, hit all the passes, announce all the blitz assignments etc.

Jordan Reed isn't even in the Top 5-10 in the OROY bidding right now. Sorry, I understand you probably really want him to be. Maybe you're a Washington homer, or you drafted him in dynasty, or has a speculative pickup on him in redraft. Either way, no he's not even close to the best rookie right now. Geno, TWilliams, Allen, Gio and Lacy are all far far ahead of him in that regard.
I guess it's how you define best. From a VBD standpoint since becoming a starter and getting the accompanying snap count, Reed has been fantastic. He didn't get in much the first few weeks.

Now according to this post, by Adam Harstad "Reed was one of just 7 rookie TEs since 1980 averaging 40 yards a game, one of just 3 rookie TEs since 1980 with 4 receptions per game.

Including this week, Reed currently holds the top mark for yards per game (59.6, tied with Jeremy Shockey), and passed Keith Jackson for the most receptions per game (5.2, vs. Jackson's 5.1)."

I'd say that's better than being the 15th ranked QB or 18th ranked RB.
Sure, including this week he's averaging... 5.2 rec and 59.6 yards. Take away this week? He's averaging 4.25 rec and 41 yards. All I'm saying is relax... he had one huge game and a bunch of other mediocre or decent games. It's possible he doesn't eclipse 5 receptions and 100 yards in a game again this entire season. Let alone 9 for 134. All I'm saying is we have 5 games worth of data. 4 of them tell us his value is 4.25 rec and 41 ypg. The other 1 tells us his average is about 5 rec and 60ypg. Big differences considering we're only subtracting and adding one game to the mix here.

Personally, I like to justify my OROY based on more than a single game. Let us not forget he also did it against Chicago. Who hasn't been that great against TEs. They're allowing about 10ppg against TEs and that's also a little skewed when you consider they faced Heath Miller on a snap count and the Lions & Giants who barely feature their tight ends in anything but the red zone passing game. If you think 10ppg isn't high, keep in mind that only 8 teams are allowing double digit PPG to opposing TEs and one of them is the Bears.
Why wouldn't you include this week? He's gotten more yardage every week since week 2.

 
In my dynasty league I am starting Jeremy Kerly, Cole Beasley, Mike James, and Jordan Reed......and I like my chances of putting up a good week.

 
No matter my draft position, I am drafting J Graham in the first and then 4 WRs after that in my PPR league. I will cobble together backs available in the 6th-9th rounds and go RBBC like every other team in the NFL has done.
ya know, thats a damn good idea..Moreno was a scrap heap, undrafted player in 10 & 12 team leagues Im in, he's top 5 in scoring and a borderline top ten NFL rb..lesson learned, dont draft rbs early go for the top TEs and WRs first..especially Jimmy Graham. :goodposting:
I think it's a good idea too. Can somebody bump this next August?

 
I never thought I'd be saying Kenny Britt has 8 catches for 67 yards... and be talking about what he produced in 6 games as opposed to 1 game.

 
Things you thought you'd never say 2 months ago...
"The Green Bay Packers are completely run heavy, there are few RB handcuff tandems I'd rather have for the FF playoffs run than Lacy and Starks.

Their passing game is hopeless though, their WRs & TE are barely rosterable."

 
"I'm worried that Eddie Lacy might wear down from too many touches against 8 man fronts."

 
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My healthy first round pick has never missed a game this season and has put up less points than a kicker

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Things you thought you'd never say 2 months ago...
"The Green Bay Packers are completely run heavy, there are few RB handcuff tandems I'd rather have for the FF playoffs run than Lacy and Starks.

Their passing game is hopeless though, their WRs & TE are barely rosterable."
this is silly on a couple levels.
 
No matter my draft position, I am drafting J Graham in the first and then 4 WRs after that in my PPR league. I will cobble together backs available in the 6th-9th rounds and go RBBC like every other team in the NFL has done.
ya know, thats a damn good idea..Moreno was a scrap heap, undrafted player in 10 & 12 team leagues Im in, he's top 5 in scoring and a borderline top ten NFL rb..lesson learned, dont draft rbs early go for the top TEs and WRs first..especially Jimmy Graham. :goodposting:
I think it's a good idea too. Can somebody bump this next August?
Yeah, it's a great idea if you landed Moreno. Like with every draft strategy, you just have to pick the right guys (aka "get lucky").

 
No matter my draft position, I am drafting J Graham in the first and then 4 WRs after that in my PPR league. I will cobble together backs available in the 6th-9th rounds and go RBBC like every other team in the NFL has done.
ya know, thats a damn good idea..Moreno was a scrap heap, undrafted player in 10 & 12 team leagues Im in, he's top 5 in scoring and a borderline top ten NFL rb..lesson learned, dont draft rbs early go for the top TEs and WRs first..especially Jimmy Graham. :goodposting:
I think it's a good idea too. Can somebody bump this next August?
Yeah, it's a great idea if you landed Moreno. Like with every draft strategy, you just have to pick the right guys (aka "get lucky").
Jimmy Graham is the right guy.

 
No matter my draft position, I am drafting J Graham in the first and then 4 WRs after that in my PPR league. I will cobble together backs available in the 6th-9th rounds and go RBBC like every other team in the NFL has done.
ya know, thats a damn good idea..Moreno was a scrap heap, undrafted player in 10 & 12 team leagues Im in, he's top 5 in scoring and a borderline top ten NFL rb..lesson learned, dont draft rbs early go for the top TEs and WRs first..especially Jimmy Graham. :goodposting:
I think it's a good idea too. Can somebody bump this next August?
Yeah, it's a great idea if you landed Moreno. Like with every draft strategy, you just have to pick the right guys (aka "get lucky").
Jimmy Graham is the right guy.
But will the rbs you draft in rounds 6-9 be the right guys?

 
RBM said:
Run It Up said:
Rick James said:
No matter my draft position, I am drafting J Graham in the first and then 4 WRs after that in my PPR league. I will cobble together backs available in the 6th-9th rounds and go RBBC like every other team in the NFL has done.
ya know, thats a damn good idea..Moreno was a scrap heap, undrafted player in 10 & 12 team leagues Im in, he's top 5 in scoring and a borderline top ten NFL rb..lesson learned, dont draft rbs early go for the top TEs and WRs first..especially Jimmy Graham. :goodposting:
I think it's a good idea too. Can somebody bump this next August?
Yeah, it's a great idea if you landed Moreno. Like with every draft strategy, you just have to pick the right guys (aka "get lucky").
Jimmy Graham is the right guy.
But will the rbs you draft in rounds 6-9 be the right guys?
What you seem to missing is that the RBs you draft in the first three rounds are often not the right guys, either, and they miss at nearly the same rate as the mid-round RBs.

Receivers aren't 100% hits either but they hit much more often than RBs. Subscribers can check this week's Gut Check from Matt Waldman which listed "retention rates" of RB1s as 50% and of WR1s as 67%. This is a continuation of similar data over several years.

The best part is that when you intentionally wait on RBs, then you are more inclined to be bold with acquiring the free agent Zac Stacy types that are out there, as opposed to being patient like the Martin/Richardson/Rice/Foster/Spiller owners have been this season.

I hope most of the owners in my league continue to think that RB early and often is the only strategy worth considering.

 
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