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This Draft Sucked For 1QB Fantasy Football - 2023? Fahrt Noise - NEW! Rank the Top Twelve Post-Draft In Here! Getcha Feels On And Your Cries Out! (1 Viewer)

According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?
Did you even try this? Because it’s not true. I just tried it and it’s still off by 3000pts. FYI.

Not saying the KCT is the best or anything, but at least actually run it through before you complaining?

Right, KTC is the only calculator that gives a bonus to the side trading fewer players ("stud bonus", basically), which boosts Bijan's value to around 14,000 when you plug in that trade.

No calc is perfect, but they're the only one that even tries to account for piling mediocre players into a stud which breaks most calculators.
 
Draft talent over situation.
Every year people mess up and take lesser guys on seemingly good landing spots.
In general I agree, but all these guys are talented and only a few really stand out. Unless you have advanced scouting skills (which I don't claim to have), a lot of it is just gut instinct.
Prime example of what I am talking about........Rashee Rice.
Did anyone even have him as a first or even 2nd rounder before the Chiefs drafted him?
Now I see some have him top 5??

Yeesh
 
Really doesn't help me to try to draft talent. Somehow I always end up with a Jerry Jeudy and not CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson. Last year it was Drake London and obviously there are 2 WRs from that draft that everyone would rather have now. I agree that for the most part you should draft talent, not situation, but I'd rather just get a little lucky every now and then.
 
Draft talent over situation.
Every year people mess up and take lesser guys on seemingly good landing spots.
In general I agree, but all these guys are talented and only a few really stand out. Unless you have advanced scouting skills (which I don't claim to have), a lot of it is just gut instinct.
Prime example of what I am talking about........Rashee Rice.
Did anyone even have him as a first or even 2nd rounder before the Chiefs drafted him?
Now I see some have him top 5??

Yeesh
I guess it's possible that Rice is really talented and KC saw something in him. Then again, not sure I'm that gung ho on KC's draft record for early round WRs, as evidenced most recently by Skyy Moore.
 
Draft talent over situation.
Every year people mess up and take lesser guys on seemingly good landing spots.
In general I agree, but all these guys are talented and only a few really stand out. Unless you have advanced scouting skills (which I don't claim to have), a lot of it is just gut instinct.
Prime example of what I am talking about........Rashee Rice.
Did anyone even have him as a first or even 2nd rounder before the Chiefs drafted him?
Now I see some have him top 5??

Yeesh
What bothered me most was Jayden Reed. He was my WR6 pre-draft. I understand it sounds kinda crazy, I was quietly probably one of the highest on him around. I see Stef Diggs in him. But either way, I was having the happy problem of wondering if I should take him late 2nd or let him drop to late 3rd and taking him there for better value because he wasn't even in most peoples top 40. Now he's getting mocked late 1st.... woof.

Similar but not as drastic value swing for me on TE. I had LaPorta as my TE2 and Schoonmaker as TE5. I seemed like one of the few who had LaPorta over Mayer, Musgrave, and Washington. And one of the only with Schoonmaker that high at all. With GB taking two tight ends including Musgrave, and Washington landing behind Friermuth, everyone has LaPorta top 3, and Schoonmaker's gone from consensus 9-12 right up to where I had him predraft.

So yeah, landing spots stunk for people hoping for value increases on the original projected top 15 or so players. But they also stunk for my projected midround "sleepers" that got much higher draft capital than expected and are now going for at, if not over, what I had their value at prior.
 
Here's my very preliminary draft board in 1QB rookie/FA .5 PPR. My picks that I thought would matter are #7, #25, and 28. I didn't hate what I saw from the #7 spot. A lot of options on the table, but to some extent I'm hoping these will sort themselves out prior to the mid-August draft in training camp. #25 & #28 feels like junk unless you have room to stash flawed WR prospects. I'm stacked at the WR position in a 12-team start 2 + 1 Flex, which would be the reason for the hate:

1. Bijan
----
2. Gibbs
------
3. JSN - think he's can't miss, but not sold on the ceiling. Good spot, but closer to Addison and Flowers than some are thinking.
4. Richardson - I have him here purely for the trade-bait upside behind Mahomes.
5. Charbonnet - I respect the draft position and how run-heavy the Seahawks skew. I'm thinking Carroll might not love Walker as much as his fantasy shareholders.
6. Kincaid - long play, high risk, can't ignore the ceiling
7. Addison - landing spot matches the talent, very safe. Ceiling is very much capped.
8. Flowers - Some downside on the landing spot but not as bad as some are thinking. Unlike JA, he could emerge as the top receiving target and I believe in the talent.
---------
9. Kendre Miller - Stash. Like him enough that I would consider moving down from 1.7. Won't be surprised if he's always part of a split backfield.
10. Johnston - Not a fan of the prospect, but have to keep an open mind given the landing spot and draft capital.
-------
11. Spears - liked the talent. Mid-3rd capital is solid. Might have him this high in part for DH insurance.
12. Roschon - might belong at the top given the open competition. My gut says that he'd go earlier than mid-4th if he had the juice to go with the "jack of all trades" label.
13. Achane - this might be too high for lineup leagues but I'll gamble on the chance that he's a weight outlier. Like him more in best ball.
14. Stroud - Don't love the ceiling in a 1 QB.
15. Young - " "
16. Bigsby - wouldn't fault anyone for swapping spots with Spears.
----------
17. LaPorta - Not sure how high he ascends, but I like his chances of ultimately cracking top-12 TE.
18. Rashaad Penny (FA) - struggling with where to put the prized FA in our league
19. Rice - on the off chance that Mahomes is right this time, originally had him outside my top 28
20. Mayer - safe, but I don't like the ceiling
21. Musgrave - struggling with where I should stack him up relative to Kraft, not to mention Schoonmaker/Ferguson(UFA), I think Musgrave owns the upside over all
22. Mingo - as out on him as Rice, but have to respect the draft capital. I know many will have him higher.
----------
23. Levis -- it's going to take some buzz to keep him in my top 28
24. Abanikanda -- lotto ticket to share a backfield with Carter? yuck
25 Eric Gray -- lotto ticket behind Barkley
26. Sean Tucker -- I know, not a believer in R White
27. Zach Evans -- I know, old habits die hard, not a bullish on Akers
28. Vaughn -- fun way to waste a pick, I probably move these RBs ahead of him: (Chase Brown, Jerome Ford, Malik Davis, McBride)


I know this last tier is gross. Probably a reflection of my roster having zero room for any more WR projects. Here are the WRs that probably belong ahead of all of these guys in a dynasty startup. They're going to have to make some noise for me to consider at the 3.1 & 3.4. I realize many will be selected in the 2nd:


23-alt. Jayden Reed
24-alt. Hyatt
25-alt. Downs
26-alt. Mims
27-alt. Tillman
28-alt. Boutee - pending medical miracle
 
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Wtf are 1QB leagues?

Get with your league and upgrade to Superflex at the very least (start 2 TE should be added too). Start 2 QB/TE leagues add many layers to strategy, pick value, etc. The draft tree and strategies are 10x more fun in this format.

With you on SF. I would feel absolutely sick feeling obligated to draft a Levis or Hooker over some of the other talent at those spots, but that's the benefit of shoring up the position at the startup.

Not sure that I see much point to start 2 TE, but I see no harm. It creates urgency to keep searching for studs that can be inserted into your lineup even when you already have one. I think it's preferable to TE premium scoring.
 
Draft talent over situation.
Every year people mess up and take lesser guys on seemingly good landing spots.
In general I agree, but all these guys are talented and only a few really stand out. Unless you have advanced scouting skills (which I don't claim to have), a lot of it is just gut instinct.
Prime example of what I am talking about........Rashee Rice.
Did anyone even have him as a first or even 2nd rounder before the Chiefs drafted him?
Now I see some have him top 5??

Yeesh
I don't do pre-draft rankings anymore as I think doing so unintentionally caused me to put blinders up about a nonzero number of prospects, but a) he was on my radar and b) still can't be justified in the top 5. He's going to get picked a lot earlier than pre-draft would've indicated and I'm all for veering from groupthink, but his pick number should be something north of 5.
 
This draft must really suck as by now 40 different people would have posted their rookie rankings and I haven’t seen anyone even try.
Me personally, I don't do rankings anymore. Ever since I saw Bramel's combined board I've copied his approach.
Does Bremel do rankings anymore?
:shrug:

I love reading substantive opinions from others and draft capital matters, but I don't get much out of just rankings so I stopped seeking them out.
 
Really doesn't help me to try to draft talent. Somehow I always end up with a Jerry Jeudy and not CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson. Last year it was Drake London and obviously there are 2 WRs from that draft that everyone would rather have now. I agree that for the most part you should draft talent, not situation, but I'd rather just get a little lucky every now and then.
I think you will be OK with London.

The thing that blows my mind (and it has been mentioned) is the out of control hype that once existed.... the "trade all your 2022 picks and acquire as many 2023 picks as possible" hype.
 
Really doesn't help me to try to draft talent. Somehow I always end up with a Jerry Jeudy and not CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson. Last year it was Drake London and obviously there are 2 WRs from that draft that everyone would rather have now. I agree that for the most part you should draft talent, not situation, but I'd rather just get a little lucky every now and then.
I think you will be OK with London.

The thing that blows my mind (and it has been mentioned) is the out of control hype that once existed.... the "trade all your 2022 picks and acquire as many 2023 picks as possible" hype.

It was stupid then and some of us realized it. I’ll remember the industry guys who were saying outlandish ****. They no longer have my ear.
 
According to the keep trade cut everyone loves to reference here it says Robinson value in 1 QB leauges is 8978 and that rookie picks 9 and 10 combine to value at 9311
So people should be trading pick 1 for picks 9+10 right ?
Did you even try this? Because it’s not true. I just tried it and it’s still off by 3000pts. FYI.

Not saying the KCT is the best or anything, but at least actually run it through before you complaining?
I was looking at their chart page with values

Right now as I type this Robinson value is 9042
The #9 rookie (they list as Charbs) is 4774
The #10 rookie (they list as Stroud) is 4570

I don't need no calculator to see that the 2 guys add up to more than Robinson value.

So something is way off.


EDIT - I see now by putting it in some mythical "adjustment" comes out of nowhere.
 
Really doesn't help me to try to draft talent. Somehow I always end up with a Jerry Jeudy and not CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson. Last year it was Drake London and obviously there are 2 WRs from that draft that everyone would rather have now. I agree that for the most part you should draft talent, not situation, but I'd rather just get a little lucky every now and then.
I think you will be OK with London.

The thing that blows my mind (and it has been mentioned) is the out of control hype that once existed.... the "trade all your 2022 picks and acquire as many 2023 picks as possible" hype.

It was stupid then and some of us realized it. I’ll remember the industry guys who were saying outlandish ****. They no longer have my ear.
I'm not following, but then again I don't absorb much content so that's probably the source of the disconnect. Last year I thought there was a very clear top 7 or 8 depending on what you thought about Pickens then a rather steep tier drop followed by a muddled mess. The one player that probably never belonged in there was Dotson, but aside from him I'm not sure I see much of a difference between what was in there this time last year and what's in there this year. At RB and WR anyway. QB and TE are both substantial improvements though.
 
Honestly in a TE-P draft I’m really liking picks 1-11 quite a bit so far.
I am reminded me of the annual TE is deep this year that's said every August as I write this, but I really like the 2nd tier of TE's too.
This year ain’t that. This looks like a legitimately deep & talented TE class.

1.12 - Mayer

That’s 3 in the top 12

Picks 13-16 could/should include a charbonet or Achane - I’d be happy to be sitting there with pick 13 right now. 12-team SF leagues picks 2.01-2.04 are going to produce some value.
 
Great TE class but I’m done drafting them unless it’s some kind of TE premium or 2 TE league. They just take too long to develop. I’ve had too much success getting quality TEs in cheap trades or even off WW after other managers have given up on them.
Indeed. TEs are FF roulette outside the top 3.
 
Great TE class but I’m done drafting them unless it’s some kind of TE premium or 2 TE league. They just take too long to develop. I’ve had too much success getting quality TEs in cheap trades or even off WW after other managers have given up on them.
My board certainly looks quite a bit different in my keep 35 dynasty then it does in my keep (up to) 41 with 7 player taxi and keep 40 TE-P - all include IDP. TE acquisition in the former can be done relatively cheaply, but in the deeper formats I think there is room to be both patient and bargain hunt with slow starters.
 
Honestly in a TE-P draft I’m really liking picks 1-11 quite a bit so far.
The only pick in the first few rounds I have now in any league is 1.12 in SF and I agree, picks up to 11 look good. Hopefully someone takes someone I wouldn’t early.
I’ve updated in the drafts topic. The whole 1st round is looking good - and it’s a 16-team SF IDP and no IDP has been taken through 2.03 (pick 19)
 
Speaking of Rashee Rice, predraft FFPC ADP had him as the 30th picked rookie at pick 149 overall.
Will be interested to see the post draft ADP
 
1.01 Bijan
1.02 Gibbs
1.03 JSN
1.04 QJ
1.05 Richardson
1.06 Charbonnet
1.07 Rice
1.08 Achane
1.09 Addison
1.10 Kincaid
1.11 Flowers
1.12 Miller

That's my 5/2/23 guess at how my 1QB rookie draft is going to go. Somebody will jump on Richardson once the top 3-4 are gone just for the upside, some RBs will sneak into the first because they always do (Spiller, Pierce, Rachaad all went in the 1st last year), somebody will jump at Rice bc of landing spot, and I'll throw up in my mouth when I can't trade out of the 1.12.
 

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