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I am not good with this tyoe of stat transfer...sorry.
this goes hand in hand with people making projections that are not in line with historic AVT. it is a zero sum game where there are historic constraints on how many receiving yards there is to go around. unless people start thinking that WR2s will start getting more yardage than what has happened in the past making the pool deeper, this is a perception that is just not accurate.
i don't think it's unreasonable to say that, even though i'm fairly confident that (for example) only 10 WRs will finish with > 200 fantasy points given AVT, that the pool of potential WRs that could finish in that top 10 varies from year to year. And if that pool was in one's own opinion 25 WRs deep last year and is 35 WRs deep this year, the value of those 35 may move other positions on one's draft board up or down.i'm not saying i necessarily see it this year, but i think the argument could be made.
Difference between #1WR and #152003 - 110 points2004 - 79 points2005- 88 points2006 - 60 pointsNothing historically different is being predicted. Last year was the wrong year to blow early picks on WR, so people are proabably reacting to that recent experience. You did fine picking WR later in 2006. Whether this year is better or worse for top tier wide receivers is a valid question. so what's with thethis goes hand in hand with people making projections that are not in line with historic AVT. it is a zero sum game where there are historic constraints on how many receiving yards there is to go around. unless people start thinking that WR2s will start getting more yardage than what has happened in the past making the pool deeper, this is a perception that is just not accurate.
Agreed. I'd throw Djax in there as well.
I think the question here is if these players will be available in round 5?For Evans, Driver, Colston I really doubt it. Housh probobly not based off last years performance that he may not match. Burress or SJax perhaps I'm not sure.Jackson would be a risky pick as your WR 1 given he has changed teams and his recent injury history. Could pay off but not a WR I would be confident in as my true #1 after sluffing off the position for 4 rounds.
This seems like a good reason to draft RB's early.
This is a good reason to draft elite scorers early . . . which ties into the theme of taking TEs and QBs early.Don't kid yourself, it's tough picking someone that will be a top scoring RB after 15-20 have already come off the board. But many times it's worth taking a shot on a RB than it is on a WR that is in a pack of other guys in the same tier.
QB is a dicey situation to evaluate. Clearly there is a lot that changes from preseason projections to end of year production. That's why I generally value end of year numbers far greater than preseason projections and I come to my own conclusions. You are right though, that there's not a ton seperating the QBs.
. After a few weeks I just ended up dropping all 3 and picking up Steve McNair as my base QB and then picking up a second QB off waivers as needed for matchups--Losman, Leftwich, Alex Smith, Brad Johnson all made 1 week appearances. Still beat the LT owner twice to win the championship.So you're a guy that would load up on RBs, consider Gates in the 3rd, take a QB in round 4 or 5 and wait on wide receivers because they so closely packed statistically? Do you see this as a recent trend or has this been your strategy always?I tend to agree (except for QB), but all it will take is for some WR to get 17TDs this year to get everyone talking about dominating next year's draft by going WR/WR in the first and second round.
I don't really have a set drafting game plan mainly because I play in so many different size league with so many different starting player configurations, rules, and scoring systems. Given that that's the case, I generally look to exploit the scoring system to eke out the most points possible. Obviously things will vary when there are 10, 12, 14, or 16 teams and there could be 0, 0.5, 1, or 2 PPR depending upon position and whether it is a HTH, total points, best ball, or Survivor style league.What I would use as a general rule of thumb for the most common league formats is drafting RBs that are slated to get the ball A LOT. There are not a lot of them out there, so if there are a ton or RBs already drafted and a guy looking at 300 carries still on the board (say Edgerrin James) or a bunch of players that are projected at 200 carries in a RBBC then I'd take the 300 carry guy.
Which all makes me want to change one of my leagues to starting 2QBs. However, there is only @ 30 pts separating QB12 from QB24. Still, I think it makes the draft more interesting.
FF is all about context. Numbers in vacums mean nothing at all. The more information you have to bounce off to place things within proper context the better decision can be made. Context: and I just discovered the CODE key at the top of this dialouge applette for formatting tables. Just cut and paste the table and click on the # (CODE) icon right above and it takes care of formatting for you.
