This years RBs/sleepers (1 Viewer)

[cowpie]

Is it me, or does this year seem like there are more RBs that could be semi sleepers this year.

I am afraid that some crappy player that doesn't get a rb early could really benefit from Drafting WR WR, in the first 2 rounds, then follow it with taking 5-6 rbs.

C taylor, foster, droughns, parker, j lewis could all be there in the 3rd round and all of them could put up top15 numbers or higher.

then in the 4th/5th round you have t jones, benson, dunn, r bush, mccallister, t bell,

in the 6th round Joseph Addai, f taylor, c brown,

7th, gore, deangelo williams, ron dayne, lendale white, maroney

8th, marion barber, gado,

correctme if i am wrong, but i am actaully considering using this strategy.

two top 5 WRS (if i pick between 6th and 12th spot) the 5 or 6 RBs.

i figure withthe shotgun effect that with my 3rd and 4th rounders, i would at least have two medium RBs with an upside potential, then with 5-8, i have some that could really come on as the year goes on.

 

[JimmyD]

This is called the stud WR theory. Basically means if there isn't a stud RB left (say after top 6/7 are gone) then take two stud WR (Owens/Moss or whoever you have in you top 3). The following 4 rounds involves you and 4 RB. And then plan on having 6 RB, 2WR, 1QB, 1TE by round 10.

A perferct draft could look like this:

1.12 - Owens

2.01 - Moss (I have him #2)

3.12 - Foster

4.01 - Tatum Bell

5.12 - Addai or Taylor

6.01 - Dayne

7.12 - DeAngelo Williams or Gado or Barber

8.01 - QB

If it were to fall like that you'd be starting the following:

RB1 - Denver RB

RB2 - Carolina RB

WR1 - Owens

WR2 - Moss

That would win some games. Then again it could all implode as you watch your handcuffs go 1-2 picks in front of you all night

 

[David Yudkin]

There's good news and bad news on this front. First the bad news. A Top 15 RB as you were hoping for will score half as many points as a Top 3 RB. Once you get in the Top 25 range, you are looking at around 60 fewer points compared to a Top 10 RB. And this assumes that the guys you end up with actually produce in the RB 15-25. They are available later because they are riskier picks (although some will likely rank in the range you mention but probably not a lot better than that). In 0 PPR leagues, I have a hard time loading up on WR early as there is not a lot of benefit scoring wise in doing so.

Now the good news. As I posted the other day, there has been an INCREDIBLE amount of RB turnover in recent years for a wide range of reasons (injuries, benching, suspensions, etc.). In the past three seasons, almost half the starting RB are different from Week 1 vs the time fantasy playoffs role around (I used Weeks 14-16 as a baseline). Certainly, other RB were used in Weeks 2-13 that didn't start Week 1, but I did not even consider those.

HOWEVER, that does not mean that a non-Week 1 starter will get a lot of work over the course of the entire season. All it means is that later in the year different backs work their way into the lineup. But it could take them 3 months do it. No matter how you slice it, you have to get lucky and hit on a RB tht either plays a lot more than expected or far outproduces his projected numbers for this to work.

I've tried this strategy over the years, and it's worked sometimes and fizzled the next. Believe it or not, I was in a league last year and loaded up on WE early AND hit the jackpot on RB. I got Lamont Jordan and Thomas Jones. Problem was I think I ended up with RMoss and Owens and still got shelled. That's the thing--people tend to think that WR are more reliable than RB (after the studs are gone), but IMO that's really not the case (at least not in recent seasons).

Any strategy COULD work, whether you want to try a different one is up to you.

 

[cowpie]

i was not thinking handcuffing other than foster mainly because i think the starters

J jones,

a green,

t jones

c dillon.

d rhoads (50/50)

will lose their jobs as the year goes on either cause they are too old and are not as good, or they are injured.

 

[David Yudkin]

i was not thinking handcuffing other than foster mainly because i think the starters

J jones,

a green,

t jones

c dillon.

d rhoads (50/50)

will lose their jobs as the year goes on either cause they are too old and are not as good, or they are injured.

What happens if it takes 8-10 weeks for the "other guy" to take over (ie you have Maroney but not Dillon)? Having a bunch of handcuffs without the starter could leave your team 3-7 before the backup sees any playing time (and there's still no guarantee at him playing Week 11 either).

 

[BigJim®]

correctme if i am wrong, but i am actaully considering using this strategy.

two top 5 WRS (if i pick between 6th and 12th spot) the 5 or 6 RBs.

i figure withthe shotgun effect that with my 3rd and 4th rounders, i would at least have two medium RBs with an upside potential, then with 5-8, i have some that could really come on as the year goes on.

 

[cowpie]

i was only planning on using this strategy in the event that i did not get a top 5 rb pick.. maybe even a top 6.

mainly because i am not thrilled at who his available from 7 -12. whether it be prior injuires and a durablity issue or just a non proven players.

as far as the players in the later rounds i am targeting, i was thinking that if i ended up with say moss and holt or s smith c johnson (my top 4 any order)

that would be way ahead of everyone elses 2 starters. on the RB side i was figuring that if i started with two say foster and dunn or bell, they are top 20 players or highre, that means that my # 2 would be at least as good as most others #2.

so i would only be lacking in the # 1 spot and there always seems to be a top backup that ends up blowing up.

M barber could be favored over j jones. and seems to be

Benson over jones - heck, jones hasn't even reported yet,

gore - although not a top 15 could be a decent # 2

c brown is grreat when he plays and the hype on white and lowered browns value. Brown in the better blocker and i think has the upper hand.

the thing is i don't need my #1 player to be a top 12 over the full season, just a top 12 or better at the end of the seaon or when the other player is out for good

 

[JimmyD]

i was not thinking handcuffing other than foster mainly because i think the starters

J jones,

a green,

t jones

c dillon.

d rhoads (50/50)

will lose their jobs as the year goes on either cause they are too old and are not as good, or they are injured.

I understand, I'm not a big fan of handcuffing, however if you pass on RB in the first two rounds you really only have a couple options.1. Draft the best RB left and hope that a 2 out of 6 pan out.

2. Handcuff as best you can and know that you've just about guaranteed yourself a starting RB for the season.

Off of this list the guys I'd think about handcuffing would be Bell/Dayne and Foster/Williams just because those are good systems and whoever is running the ball is going to be worth starting.

 

[cowpie]

i was not thinking handcuffing other than foster mainly because i think the starters

J jones,

a green,

t jones

c dillon.

d rhoads (50/50)

will lose their jobs as the year goes on either cause they are too old and are not as good, or they are injured.

What happens if it takes 8-10 weeks for the "other guy" to take over (ie you have Maroney but not Dillon)? Having a bunch of handcuffs without the starter could leave your team 3-7 before the backup sees any playing time (and there's still no guarantee at him playing Week 11 either).

dont' forget, i would have 2 of the top 5 WRS which should count for something.

and foster and dunn or droughs being my top 2 shouldn't be all that bad.

 

[cowpie]

i was not thinking handcuffing other than foster mainly because i think the starters

J jones,

a green,

t jones

c dillon.

d rhoads (50/50)

will lose their jobs as the year goes on either cause they are too old and are not as good, or they are injured.

I understand, I'm not a big fan of handcuffing, however if you pass on RB in the first two rounds you really only have a couple options.1. Draft the best RB left and hope that a 2 out of 6 pan out.

2. Handcuff as best you can and know that you've just about guaranteed yourself a starting RB for the season.

Off of this list the guys I'd think about handcuffing would be Bell/Dayne and Foster/Williams just because those are good systems and whoever is running the ball is going to be worth starting.

i agree with you there, but i wouldn't target both duos since it would tie up too much roster. one maybe, but not two. and not denver cause i some rb that i have never heard of will probably start running the show t here. they never finish with the same starter.