Thomas Jones & Cedric Benson (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

Im looking at the early ADPs for redraft leagues, and I'm seeing Jones as a late 2nd to late 3rd rounder, and Benson in the 6th, and Im beginning to think that you will get a top 10 RB if you spend a late 2nd and and early 5th on them...

Hear me out:

- The Bears run offense was top 10 last year with some of the worst QB play in the league. That QB play is sure to improve with either a healthy Grossman, Griese, or a more seasoned Orton.

- The Bears have the weakest schedule in the league and get poor offenses in at least 9 games (DETX2 MINX2 GBX2 NYJ BUF SF).

- The Bears defense is dominant and meshes well with Ron Turner's ball control philosophy. They should be able to grind it out a lot in the 2nd half of those games against the weaker teams.

- The offensive line is completely intact from last year and should only get better.

All signs seem to be pointing to a top 5 rush offense. People will be scared off by the question mark of who the main man will be, at least until training camp gets going and the starter is determined. Teams that draft 1,2,3 and get one of the true superstud RBs would be well-served to think about this strategy...

Thoughts?

 

[Otis]

This is pretty decent.

 

[Portis 26]

I agree, with the proviso that one of the backs needs to beat the other out.

Your problem is if they end up in a lame RBBC.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Im looking at the early ADPs for redraft leagues, and I'm seeing Jones as a late 2nd to late 3rd rounder, and Benson in the 6th, and Im beginning to think that you will get a top 10 RB if you spend a late 2nd and and early 5th on them...

Hear me out:

- The Bears run offense was top 10 last year with some of the worst QB play in the league. That QB play is sure to improve with either a healthy Grossman, Griese, or a more seasoned Orton.

- The Bears have the weakest schedule in the league and get poor offenses in at least 9 games (DETX2 MINX2 GBX2 NYJ BUF SF).

- The Bears defense is dominant and meshes well with Ron Turner's ball control philosophy. They should be able to grind it out a lot in the 2nd half of those games against the weaker teams.

- The offensive line is completely intact from last year and should only get better.

All signs seem to be pointing to a top 5 rush offense. People will be scared off by the question mark of who the main man will be, at least until training camp gets going and the starter is determined. Teams that draft 1,2,3 and get one of the true superstud RBs would be well-served to think about this strategy...

Thoughts?

Are you saying that if you have one of the 1st 3 picks in the draft you would take TJ in the end of the 2nd round and then grab Cedric in the 5th?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I agree, with the proviso that one of the backs needs to beat the other out.

Your problem is if they end up in a lame RBBC.

This is definitely the big risk here, although they never went RBBC last year despite having the depth to do it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Are you saying that if you have one of the 1st 3 picks in the draft you would take TJ in the end of the 2nd round and then grab Cedric in the 5th?

Well its just an idea I'm bouncing around right now, but its starting to sound pretty sweet.... superstud, TJ, WR1, WR2, Benson in the first 5 rounds.

 

[FrostBite]

I've always played by the rule - never draft a Chicago Bear.

 

[dickey moe]

So when would you project to draft both of them? Sounds like a situation you could easily be screwed out of if you miss out on the handcuff.

 

[Portis 26]

This is definitely the big risk here, although they never went RBBC last year despite having the depth to do it.

That was more out of necessity than anything else. Benson was too raw, and then when at last he was ready to go, he got hurt, so they never really had much of chance to do the RBBC thing. Lovie Smith's recent comments would suggest that they are considering some form of RBBC.

 

[FrostBite]

I think I'd be happier getting Kevin Jones in the second and stealing Benson from the TJ owner in the 5th or later...

Guarentee yourself a starting RB in Jones... and make sure someone else doesn't get the TJ/Benson combo. Then if Benson takes over, you've got 3 quality starting RB's.

 

[The Shizzle]

I've always played by the rule - never draft a Chicago Bear.

Yeah "Sweetness" was horrible from 76-86 in my fantasy leagues.Even worse if you had IDP players such as Singletary and Dent!!

 

[FrostBite]

I've always played by the rule - never draft a Chicago Bear.

Yeah "Sweetness" was horrible from 76-86 in my fantasy leagues.Even worse if you had IDP players such as Singletary and Dent!!

How did I know this was coming? I guess I should have said... in the last 20 years.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

So when would you project to draft both of them? Sounds like a situation you could easily be screwed out of if you miss out on the handcuff.

TJ late 2nd-early 3rd Benson 5th.That was also the concern with the LJ/Preist combo last year, and many rode that strategy to a title. The key here is, when you see a super productive running game, you lock it up (if you can, which is what disqualifies Denver, at least as of right now)

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I agree, with the proviso that one of the backs needs to beat the other out.

Your problem is if they end up in a lame RBBC.

This is definitely the big risk here, although they never went RBBC last year despite having the depth to do it.

I don't believe they were comfortable with the idea of starting both a rookie QB and rookie RB in the backfield last year...this idea would be better served going with little brother Julius Jones and Marion Barber III a round or two later than you would have to with Benson. Much less chance of an RBBC situation in Dallas this year.

JJones and MBIII is definitely another candidate for this strategy - Barber will likely go later than Benson because of name recognition and not being a former top 5 pick. Dallas bolstered their line with Fabini and TO should help stretch the field and open running lanes. One thing they dont have going for them is the schedule. The NFC east is going to be brutal.

 

[dickey moe]

So when would you project to draft both of them? Sounds like a situation you could easily be screwed out of if you miss out on the handcuff.

TJ late 2nd-early 3rd Benson 5th.That was also the concern with the LJ/Preist combo last year, and many rode that strategy to a title. The key here is, when you see a super productive running game, you lock it up (if you can, which is what disqualifies Denver, at least as of right now)

Most who road to the title used a variation of that strategy and drafted LJ and not Holmes (that's what I did at least). I think it's risky to have to be using two of your first five picks on Jones/Benson.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think I'd be happier getting Kevin Jones in the second and stealing Benson from the TJ owner in the 5th or later...

Guarentee yourself a starting RB in Jones... and make sure someone else doesn't get the TJ/Benson combo.  Then if Benson takes over, you've got 3 quality starting RB's.

So much more risk with Kevin Jones. You have that A) he didnt look good last year B) Kitna and McCown? really? C) Mad Mike has a problem running a balanced offense. They do have the advantage of the soft schedule the whole NFC Norris gets, but I dont see them getting in ball control mode game after game the same way the Bears should.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

So when would you project to draft both of them? Sounds like a situation you could easily be screwed out of if you miss out on the handcuff.

TJ late 2nd-early 3rd Benson 5th.That was also the concern with the LJ/Preist combo last year, and many rode that strategy to a title. The key here is, when you see a super productive running game, you lock it up (if you can, which is what disqualifies Denver, at least as of right now)

Most who road to the title used a variation of that strategy and drafted LJ and not Holmes (that's what I did at least). I think it's risky to have to be using two of your first five picks on Jones/Benson.

Would you trade your late 2nd and early 5th for a top 10 pick in a redraft? because if its not RBBC, I think thats what you get when you draft the "chicago running game" in the form of Jones and Benson.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Just to be clear, this is just an idea... Im not sure that Im sold on it, which is why Im putting it out there to be poked full of holes.

 

[Bojang0301]

Just to be clear, this is just an idea... Im not sure that Im sold on it, which is why Im putting it out there to be poked full of holes.

I was watching some Benson highlights the other day and I still believe he can overtake TJ... I think grabing both would be a great idea just not sure that they can combine for KC like rushing numbers.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Just to be clear, this is just an idea... Im not sure that Im sold on it, which is why Im putting it out there to be poked full of holes.

I was watching some Benson highlights the other day and I still believe he can overtake TJ... I think grabing both would be a great idea just not sure that they can combine for KC like rushing numbers.

Hence the "poor man's" in the title of thread. Its wrong to expect any rushing attack to produce numbers like KCs, they are an anomaly.

 

[NattyDread]

This is definitely the big risk here, although they never went RBBC last year despite having the depth to do it.

That was more out of necessity than anything else. Benson was too raw, and then when at last he was ready to go, he got hurt, so they never really had much of chance to do the RBBC thing. Lovie Smith's recent comments would suggest that they are considering some form of RBBC.

I've now heard this idea of Lovie possibly using a RBBC a few times now. Does anyone have a link?

 

[Quez]

How many people see these guys being taken as back to back picks in dynasty leagues? I would have to consider it at 14-15 or 12-13,

In a redraft maybe if they fall and I had a back to back in the 20's I would consider.

TJ was a stud in the begining of the season

 

[slayer666]

That was also the concern with the LJ/Preist combo last year, and many rode that strategy to a title.

The difference last year was Priest was old and injury prone. Thomas Jones is 27 and Cedric Benson is 23.

Thomas Jones is too talented to sit on the bench. Cedric Benson makes too much money to sit on the bench. Neither of these guys is going to sit on the bench full time. I think this situation has RBBC written all over it. The only way I see your strategy working is if one or the other gets injured.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I agree, with the proviso that one of the backs needs to beat the other out.

Your problem is if they end up in a lame RBBC.

This is definitely the big risk here, although they never went RBBC last year despite having the depth to do it.

I don't believe they were comfortable with the idea of starting both a rookie QB and rookie RB in the backfield last year...this idea would be better served going with little brother Julius Jones and Marion Barber III a round or two later than you would have to with Benson. Much less chance of an RBBC situation in Dallas this year.

JJones and MBIII is definitely another candidate for this strategy - Barber will likely go later than Benson because of name recognition and not being a former top 5 pick. Dallas bolstered their line with Fabini and TO should help stretch the field and open running lanes. One thing they dont have going for them is the schedule. The NFC east is going to be brutal.

I don't know why you would say that about their schedule??? Over half the teams on their 2006 schedule gave up over 4 yards per carry in 2005.

Atlanta 4.7 YPC

Houston 4.5 YPC

Indianapolis 4.4 YPC

New Orleans 4.3 YPC

Tennessee 4.2 YPC

Detroit 4.2 YPC

Washington 4.1 YPC

Arizona 4.0 YPC

2006 Dallas Cowboys Schedule

Date Opponent Time/Result

Sep 10 @Jacksonville 4:15pm

Sep 17 Washington 8:15pm

Week 3 BYE

Oct 1 @Tennessee 1:00pm

Oct 8 @Philadelphia 4:15pm

Oct 15 Houston 1:00pm

Oct 23 N.Y. Giants 8:30pm

Oct 29 @Carolina 8:15pm

Nov 5 @Washington 1:00pm

Nov 12 @Arizona 4:15pm

Nov 19 Indianapolis 1:00pm

Nov 23 Tampa Bay 4:15pm

Dec 3 @N.Y. Giants 1:00pm

Dec 10 New Orleans 1:00pm

Dec 16 @Atlanta 8:00pm

Dec 25 Philadelphia 5:00pm

Dec 31 Detroit 1:00pm

All times are Eastern

The difference between facing GB, MIN, and DET twice and facing PHI, WAS, and NYG twice is HUGE.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

That was also the concern with the LJ/Preist combo last year, and many rode that strategy to a title.

The difference last year was Priest was old and injury prone. Thomas Jones is 27 and Cedric Benson is 23.

Thomas Jones is too talented to sit on the bench. Cedric Benson makes too much money to sit on the bench. Neither of these guys is going to sit on the bench full time. I think this situation has RBBC written all over it. The only way I see your strategy working is if one or the other gets injured.

You guys are starting to make a good case for RBBC. Although, Im not sure I totally agree with the assertion that Benson won't sit strictly because of the money he makes. He will have to earn his playing time in practice, nothing is going to be given to him.

 

[David Yudkin]

Im looking at the early ADPs for redraft leagues, and I'm seeing Jones as a late 2nd to late 3rd rounder, and Benson in the 6th, and Im beginning to think that you will get a top 10 RB if you spend a late 2nd and and early 5th on them...

Hear me out:

- The Bears run offense was top 10 last year with some of the worst QB play in the league. That QB play is sure to improve with either a healthy Grossman, Griese, or a more seasoned Orton.

- The Bears have the weakest schedule in the league and get poor offenses in at least 9 games (DETX2 MINX2 GBX2 NYJ BUF SF).

- The Bears defense is dominant and meshes well with Ron Turner's ball control philosophy. They should be able to grind it out a lot in the 2nd half of those games against the weaker teams.

- The offensive line is completely intact from last year and should only get better.

All signs seem to be pointing to a top 5 rush offense. People will be scared off by the question mark of who the main man will be, at least until training camp gets going and the starter is determined. Teams that draft 1,2,3 and get one of the true superstud RBs would be well-served to think about this strategy...

Thoughts?

I love ya Bloom, but IMO this is flaVVed. And here's why.A Holmes/LJ tandem was locking up DOUBLE what a RB in the Top 10 would get (a RB ranked in the 8-10 range). Locking up Jones and Benson only gets you what a Top 10 RB would net you.

I am not so sure that the Bears could sniff what the Chiefs have done, even if they do rank Top 5 in rushing attempts.

TDs by Bears RB in 2005: 13

TDs by Bears RB in 2004: 13

TDs by Chiefs RB in 2005: 30

TDs by Chiefs RB in 2004: 35

Total yards by Bears RB in 2005: 2315

Total yards by Bears RB in 2004: 2086

Total yards by Chiefs RB in 2005: 2888

Total yards by Chiefs RB in 2004: 2896

The Bears RBs need another 500-600 yards and 18-20 TD to get to the level of the Chiefs. And if Jones and Benson SPLIT time, neither one might not be a great play this year. In that scenario, either one might be a fantasy RB2 if they split the workload almost equally.

However, the early word out of Chicago is that one guy will start and one guy will sit.

IMO, investing a 2nd and 6th rounder to get 1 Top 10 RB is not a great investment unless you are projecting the Bears RB production to go through the roof.

 

[squistion]

That was also the concern with the LJ/Preist combo last year, and many rode that strategy to a title.

The difference last year was Priest was old and injury prone. Thomas Jones is 27 and Cedric Benson is 23.

I agree, I missed out on Preist, but I picked up LJ at 7.02 with that rationale (don't know why he was still available). I just didn't see Preist lasting a whole season. That is why I think this is an apples and oranges comparison, although it does merit some consideration.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Im looking at the early ADPs for redraft leagues, and I'm seeing Jones as a late 2nd to late 3rd rounder, and Benson in the 6th, and Im beginning to think that you will get a top 10 RB if you spend a late 2nd and and early 5th on them...

Hear me out:

- The Bears run offense was top 10 last year with some of the worst QB play in the league. That QB play is sure to improve with either a healthy Grossman, Griese, or a more seasoned Orton.

- The Bears have the weakest schedule in the league and get poor offenses in at least 9 games (DETX2 MINX2 GBX2 NYJ BUF SF).

- The Bears defense is dominant and meshes well with Ron Turner's ball control philosophy. They should be able to grind it out a lot in the 2nd half of those games against the weaker teams.

- The offensive line is completely intact from last year and should only get better.

All signs seem to be pointing to a top 5 rush offense. People will be scared off by the question mark of who the main man will be, at least until training camp gets going and the starter is determined. Teams that draft 1,2,3 and get one of the true superstud RBs would be well-served to think about this strategy...

Thoughts?

I love ya Bloom, but IMO this is flaVVed. And here's why.A Holmes/LJ tandem was locking up DOUBLE what a RB in the Top 10 would get (a RB ranked in the 8-10 range). Locking up Jones and Benson only gets you what a Top 10 RB would net you.

I am not so sure that the Bears could sniff what the Chiefs have done, even if they do rank Top 5 in rushing attempts.

TDs by Bears RB in 2005: 13

TDs by Bears RB in 2004: 13

TDs by Chiefs RB in 2005: 30

TDs by Chiefs RB in 2004: 35

Total yards by Bears RB in 2005: 2315

Total yards by Bears RB in 2004: 2086

Total yards by Chiefs RB in 2005: 2888

Total yards by Chiefs RB in 2004: 2896

The Bears RBs need another 500-600 yards and 18-20 TD to get to the level of the Chiefs. And if Jones and Benson SPLIT time, neither one might not be a great play this year. In that scenario, either one might be a fantasy RB2 if they split the workload almost equally.

However, the early word out of Chicago is that one guy will start and one guy will sit.

IMO, investing a 2nd and 6th rounder to get 1 Top 10 RB is not a great investment unless you are projecting the Bears RB production to go through the roof.

I don't expect an explosion of Chiefs proportions. The Priest/LJ comparison is based on the idea of a strategy of overspending on a talented backup because you know that the running game will yield a top RB but are unsure which one it will be. The payoff coming because the net value of the stud you get is worth more than the worth of the two picks used to get him. I do expect the Bears running game to take an uptick this year because of the reasons I laid out in the initial post, not to chiefs at their prime levels, but in the top 5 rushing attacks in the league, I don't think 2300/16 is out of the question for the rushing game as a whole. I think they have the defense and schedule to get 500+ carries, and the passing game can only go up. The Bears were very close to the depths of the 49ers and very far behind the other 30 teams in the league. The inevitable improvement will create more TD opportunities and possibly result in an increase in YPC because the defenses will have to play a little softer on the run. I can see the numbers being around the Steelers numbers last year minus a few TDs. The problem there was that Willie and Bettis were splitting the TDs and yards. A feature back instead of RBBC would yielded something like 1600 total yards and 11 TDs which would have been top 10 numbers.

I think there's a steep drop from the top 8-10 RBs to the next tier and would think about giving up a 5th to have 2 of that group instead of a riskier back at RB2 or stud WR. The question comes down to the risk of RBBC.

Comparing the Bears running game to Chiefs is definitely a stretch, but I do think they have the ideal conditions for improvement to an already strong running game.

 

[Otis]

You certainly are not getting Priest/LJ production, but you also aren't paying a Priest/LJ price. Per VBD if you can have these two guys cheap enough it becomes worth it, and I think both of these guys perceived values are lower than their true values.

I also like the Bears production to improve with improved QB play and another year under the new regime.