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Thoughts going into the 2014 Season. (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
Eddie Lacy is the real deal and may see even bigger stats his Sophomore season with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. I would be happy to draft this guy in the late 1st Round.

Julio Jones will probably be undervalued coming back from injury but I don't think he's going to have any problem rebounding and putting up big stats again, I know he'll be on many of my teams next season.

Drew Brees is the model of consistency. Sure, he got outplayed by Peyton Manning this year but Brees had a few weeks where he simply carried my team to a win. I think he's a great pick anywhere in the draft and if he falls into the 2nd Round, you've got to snap him up.

CJ Spiller will present a decent value, he'll definitely drop a few rounds from where he was drafted this year. But you've got to keep in mind that his guy was playing hurt all season long.

Avoid all Miami skill-players, unless they draft a Rookie that really stands out. There's no consistency to this team's offense.

Giovanni Bernard and Tyler Eifert are both players that I think are sneaky picks. They are just under the radar enough. Bernard will probably be drafted AFTER Eddie Lacy and Leveon Bell but has the upside to outproduce both of them, in my opinion. I would love to have both Lacy and Bernard on my team's next year.

I don't think Le'veon Bell will be a great value next-year. If you're drafting with Steelers fans, he's going to go way too early. He had upside where he was drafted as a Rookie but if he's taken anywhere in the first 3 Rounds that's too early for my liking.

Picks 1 - 3 look great in redraft: McCoy, Charles, and Peterson all seem like a lock for production at the Running Back position. Speaking of Minnesota, Cordarelle Patterson is a GREAT late-round flyer. I think you can draft this guy as your 4th WR pretty easily, unless there's someone who's more bullish than me on him. His upside is tremendous.

Broncos should look good for another year. Demaryius Thomas is obviously the guy you want the most. I wouldn't want to overpay for Julius Thomas and Knowshon Moreno though. 51 Touchdowns is pretty ridiculous and that inflated A LOT of these guys value this year. Montee Ball might be a late-round play.

I believe Andre Johnson still has some tread left on his tires. If there was a way to acquire him as your WR2, I would definitely jump on that. I wouldn't want to rely on this guy as my WR1 for the 2014 season though. If he somehow eeks his was into the 3rd Round in redrafts, I'd definitely jump on that. I think DeAndre Hopkins is definitely a breakout candidate as well. Put me in the category that wants the Texans to keep Matt Shaub.

Arian Foster is a big '?' for me. I think I'm going to outright avoid him unless he drops to me and I'm in need of a RB.

Justin Hunter and Justin Blackmon are going to be great late-round WR picks. The upside and athleticism is clearly there. If either team finds themselves with a decent Quarterback I would not hesitate to pull the trigger on them. They have WR1 / WR2 upside with a very, very low price-tag in terms of redraft value.

Seahawks Defense should be good to go for another-year. And for the production they've given me, I would have no problem taking them early. They are head and shoulders better than Fantasy-wise than most other defenses. I think Arizona and San Francisco would be nice consolation prizes to them, however.

Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, and AJ Green are the truth, I'd take them in the 2nd Round without batting an eye. These guys and Demaryius Thomas rival Calvin Johnson for Wide Receivers with the most upside.

Robert Griffin III is going to make a great late round pick. I don't know just how far he's going to fall but whoever pulls the trigger on him is going to get great value. I'm not sold on Pierre Garcon, he's on my do-not-draft list.

I don't think Jimmy Graham has had his career-year yet. Because of this, I would definitely recommend drafting this guy. He's one of the safest FF picks you could possibly make.

The entire New York Giants squad is on my "Do Not Draft" list. I can win a title without any of these scrubs. Same goes for the Jets. Unless Vincent Jackson drops, add the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to my "Do Not Draft" list as-well.

Frank Gore is a guy that I'm going to continue to draft until he completely falls off the map. He looked great this season and I think he's got a few more years of production left in him. If he goes in the late 2nd / early 3rd, I think that's a great pick for any team. Handcuff him with whichever SF RB flavor you like the most and enjoy your RB2 production for the year.

I'd avoid St Louis players like the plague as well. Tavon Austin has upside but even so, I don't think he's ever going to be a consistent player. I would happily let someone else overdraft him.

Calvin Johnson is great. If you have the option to draft a the flavor of the year RB or Calvin Johnson, take Calvin Johnson. At one point he had 300 yards in one game this year. Wrap your head around that...

Nick Foles, Russell, Wilson, and Andy Dalton are the Quarterbacks for you if you decide you want to wait for a Quarterback.

Andre Ellington may be poised for more carries next season, if he can be had late I think he makes a great bye-week filler (player to insert in case of injury).

Chris Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are probably going to drop in drafts. Don't think twice about scooping these guys up, they're not the players they once were but provide consistent Fantasy Points each week.

Besides Tom Brady, I would avoid most Patriots players. I think Aaron Dobson has a lot of upside and will likely NEVER own Rob Gronkowski unless he can be acquired on the cheap in Dynasty.

Antonio Brown will be on all my Fantasy Teams next year. He's a perfect fit for what Ben Roethlisberger tries to do at Quarterback. It seems like EVERY WEEK he's putting up huge numbers. If I could get him as my WR2/3 I would be floored.

Also, now that I mentioned him Ben Roethlisberger makes a great matchup play. You can pretty much predict when Big Ben's gonna go off for 3 TDs / 400 yards. Those weeks, he's money.

 
This coming year I think will be my first ever of taking a WR in the 1st instead of a RB. Unless I can grab McCoy somewhere, no chance I take others over the Calvin Johnsons of the NFL (AJ Green/DT/Dez/Gordon/Julio in that order I would guess).

As for your suggestions, I would avoid Gore because I disagree and think he did look a little slower, not as sharp as he has in the past.

I might go after Larry Fitzgerald depending on the QB of that team for the season (could easily be Palmer for another year, in which case I'll avoid him)

I doubt you can get Patterson as a "late round flyer" as you stated. He'll probably go around the 6th or 7th round in which case that would be WR3 most likely.

And there is 2 Rams players that I would LOVE to see on my team, being Stacy and Bradford (only as a backup because that will be the value in the 10th or later rounds, but I think he could bounce back and be top10 at the position)

 
I think we all know all these big names. Nothing exciting there.

I am more interested in stead man bailey, watching the New England receiver situation, players like Tyler effect, and probably what happens in Carolina and San Fran re: the RB situation, as well as where Ben Tate lands.

There are many more, but those are the type of moves that are really worth studying for 2014, especially in dynasty.

Oh, and where Jeremy Maclin ends up...kc maybe?

 
I stopped reading after the Bell in the first three rounds is too early. Bell has been every bit as good as Lacy over the last 8 games.

 
Too many things to go in-depth on the disagreements, but I think you're off on:

Gordon - end of top 12 for sure in PPR

Bryant - top 12 in PPR

Foles - can't wait too long on him, prob 3rd or 4th round.

CJ3 - bum

Fitz - Floyd will take over next year

NYG - there will be value here

Bell - mid 2nd rd would be a good deal

Gore - 3rd down, Bettis type role next year, someone new will step up.

Zac Stacy - mid 2nd with Bell

Vereen - def worth a look

Hunter - needs another year and a QB

Blackmon - don't trust him yet, dynasty buy low but redraft too much risk

Patterson - 6th round would be a bargain

 
I stopped reading after the Bell in the first three rounds is too early. Bell has been every bit as good as Lacy over the last 8 games.
Confused about this as well. Unless something happens to indicate a serious reduction in his touches, he seems very solid and likely to be consistent.

 
I stopped reading after the Bell in the first three rounds is too early. Bell has been every bit as good as Lacy over the last 8 games.
Confused about this as well. Unless something happens to indicate a serious reduction in his touches, he seems very solid and likely to be consistent.
Did you guys even watch football this year? Why do you like Bell? Is it because he is an every down back that catches passes and gets all the goal line carries? He is only on the field for roughly 90% of the offensive snaps... Not touching him unless he falls to the 6th or 7th.

 
Arian Foster is a big '?' for me. I think I'm going to outright avoid him unless he drops to me and I'm in need of a RB.

Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, and AJ Green are the truth, I'd take them in the 2nd Round without batting an eye. These guys and Demaryius Thomas rival Calvin Johnson for Wide Receivers with the most upside.

Nick Foles, Russell, Wilson, and Andy Dalton are the Quarterbacks for you if you decide you want to wait for a Quarterback.
There is no way in hades I would ever have Foster on my team next year. No matter where he falls. He will be the 2014 version of SJax

I probably would take all of those wr's mentioned above from pick 3 or so on. You know they will not bust and you know they will produce. Why risk that pick on a running back?

Foles, Dalton and probably Wilson will be the qb's coming off the board in the 3rd. If by waiting you mean the 3rdish rounds then yeah.

 
Names I will be sure to remember come draft time next year.

QB - A. Smith, I think he will again be a huge value in redraft. He fits perfectly in Reid's offense and there is a good chance KC upgrades his weapons this offseason. Another year in the offense won't hurt, either. He was QB12 this year and will be a QB1 again next year.

RB - D. Brown, if Indy doesn't do anything else to address the RB position (and I don't think they will) this guy could be a steal next year. Many will probably talk themselves back into believing in Richardson over the offseason and forget that Brown has looked like the clearly better RB.

WR - C. Patterson, here is a guy who could be a QB upgrade away from being a top WR in the NFL. Regardless of that, his involvement has increased to the point that Minn will have to feed him the ball in creative ways like they have to end this season.

TE - D. Allen, I thought Allen was in line for a break out season this year. Unfortunately the injury to start the season derailed that before it could even leave the gate. Indy is a team in desperate need of a reliable receiving option and I believe Allen is just the guy they need. Wayne is in the twilight of his career and there are no guarantees as to how he will recover. Fleener has shown he is not the answer as well.

 
If the offensive line improves, I'll take a flyer on the Giants 3rd WR late. Someone is going to pass Nicks.

 
It looks like I'll likely end up with CJ on another championship team next year. he finished with more points than Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, and finished 9th exceeding his draft position by quite a bit and yet still gets zero love. He's the gift that keeps on giving. Curious where he'll be going....

 
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It looks like I'll likely end up with CJ on another championship team next year. he finished with more points than Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, and finished 9th exceeding his draft position by quite a bit and yet still gets zero love. He's the gift that keeps on giving. Curious where he'll be going....
You mean Chris Johnson? I'm over here going through the stats trying to figure out n what system Spiller could have outscored those guys.

 
Pretty good point. He's still never finished with fewer than 1,400 total yards and will do it again if he can get 131 in the final game.

Basically just fell off in TDs the last 2 years, but back up a bit this year.

 
It looks like I'll likely end up with CJ on another championship team next year. he finished with more points than Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, and finished 9th exceeding his draft position by quite a bit and yet still gets zero love. He's the gift that keeps on giving. Curious where he'll be going....
Non ppr? Because in ppr Bush finished higher in total points and 2.5 higher in ppg. Drafted silmilarly, too.
 
Agree with lot in OP.

My hope is that Madden online Sunday Ticket deal is offered again (or some live online Sunday Ticket package) next season. Great buy for those of us that cut cable. Was fantastic IMO after some Week 1 hiccups.

Some random thoughts:[PPR]

Donald Brown: Indy's version of Pierre Thomas should they keep him (and who knows with Ballard likely returning). Might not bring ton of consistency long term, but I don't see him going away. I don't care how many offseason puff pieces I hear on Trent Richardson (losing weight/season long issues picking up system). I plan on grabbing Donald. Richardson would have to fall quite a bit to take (personally don't see happening by the time Aug/Sept rolls around)

Hakeem Nicks: Will be selling him after the new home hype.

Doug Martin: Big bounce back candidate. Bucs O-line/offense/Glennon really came together and made strides. Be interesting to see where he's drafted next season.

Jordan Reed's future should be closely monitored. Not a great sign having long term concussion issues at such a young age.

Hope Detroit can finally solve their WR2 issue (not for lack of effort -- Titus Young/Broyles). Ugly offense when Calvin taken away/hurt.

I think you've really got to ask yourself when/if Fred Jackson will ever go away as a committee back, if Buffalo will really improve as a team overall with Manuel and lastly even if not Jackson, will Spiller ever handle the load again/accrue any goalline looks. Spiller turns 27 before next season so owners can't really afford more 'wasteful' seasons.

I'll personally be closely monitoring Reggie Wayne/Da'Rick Rogers. Love the physicalness Rogers already plays with at such a young age. Indy get Luck some protection.

As wrong as I have been about passing on some RB's (McCoy/Charles/Matthews), I can't say I'd change anything at all if I drafted today.

 
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It looks like I'll likely end up with CJ on another championship team next year. he finished with more points than Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, and finished 9th exceeding his draft position by quite a bit and yet still gets zero love. He's the gift that keeps on giving. Curious where he'll be going....
You mean Chris Johnson? I'm over here going through the stats trying to figure out n what system Spiller could have outscored those guys.
sorry, yes. He burned so many people in the past that they can't get beyond it.

 
I think we will see a PPR season better than Sproles 2011 campaign out of Vereen if he stays healthy.

You cant take him in front of AD, McCoy and Charles but Lacy is the real deal.

I plan to own DaRick in most leagues. Loads of talent and he has seen the field a lot towards the end of the season and he should be cheap.

Dobson or Boyce will make a good WR pick next year.

It wont be a surprise to anyone, but T Williams will be a nice WR3/SW option if he is playing on the other side of Dez.

 
I think unless you have a top 3 pick, WR might be the way to go in PPR leagues.

You can certainly wait on a QB unless you want to take Manning or Brees. Just way too much value to be had later.

Wait on TE as well. Graham seems to be about the only sure thing. Unless he falls into your lap, just wait. Thomas, Gronk, and Reed all have an injury history.

There could be a bunch of RB value. Guys like Rice, Spiller, Johnson, etc. could fall into later rounds and present great value.

 
I think we will see a PPR season better than Sproles 2011 campaign out of Vereen if he stays healthy.

You cant take him in front of AD, McCoy and Charles
Vereen ahead of Charles/McCoy :no:

My wife told me I can't start drinking until evening, but good for you!

 
I stopped reading after the Bell in the first three rounds is too early. Bell has been every bit as good as Lacy over the last 8 games.
Confused about this as well. Unless something happens to indicate a serious reduction in his touches, he seems very solid and likely to be consistent.
Le'Veon is going to be force fed the ball next year, he is running well behind a patched together line -- wait until next year when they get Pouncey and (possibly) Velasco back. THAT will be a much improved line instead of running behind Cody Wallace & such.

 
Arian Foster is a big '?' for me. I think I'm going to outright avoid him unless he drops to me and I'm in need of a RB.
There is no way in hades I would ever have Foster on my team next year. No matter where he falls. He will be the 2014 version of SJax
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Foster might not even be in football anymore. Back problems and him clearly moving onto other work (acting) suggests that football isn't important to him. He's a smart guy and probably cherishes his brain and health more than other guys. He knows he can scratch out a good life more so than other football players. The dude has a SAG card now. He's moving on. It may not be 100% in 2014, but it'll happen sooner than later.

 
Arian Foster is a big '?' for me. I think I'm going to outright avoid him unless he drops to me and I'm in need of a RB.

Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, and AJ Green are the truth, I'd take them in the 2nd Round without batting an eye. These guys and Demaryius Thomas rival Calvin Johnson for Wide Receivers with the most upside.

Nick Foles, Russell, Wilson, and Andy Dalton are the Quarterbacks for you if you decide you want to wait for a Quarterback.
There is no way in hades I would ever have Foster on my team next year. No matter where he falls. He will be the 2014 version of SJaxI probably would take all of those wr's mentioned above from pick 3 or so on. You know they will not bust and you know they will produce. Why risk that pick on a running back?

Foles, Dalton and probably Wilson will be the qb's coming off the board in the 3rd. If by waiting you mean the 3rdish rounds then yeah.
Or...Foster will be the 2012 version of Peterson. I can nod my head at either side if this argument but, either way, he will be making or breaking lots of leagues next year because if he comes back and is healthy and this year off did him good, there are only about 4 backs in the league that have shown they can hang with him week in and week out. When he's on, he's a tremendous advantage each week unless you have Peterson, Charles, shady, and maybe another guy here or there...

 
Arian Foster is a big '?' for me. I think I'm going to outright avoid him unless he drops to me and I'm in need of a RB.

Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, and AJ Green are the truth, I'd take them in the 2nd Round without batting an eye. These guys and Demaryius Thomas rival Calvin Johnson for Wide Receivers with the most upside.

Nick Foles, Russell, Wilson, and Andy Dalton are the Quarterbacks for you if you decide you want to wait for a Quarterback.
There is no way in hades I would ever have Foster on my team next year. No matter where he falls. He will be the 2014 version of SJaxI probably would take all of those wr's mentioned above from pick 3 or so on. You know they will not bust and you know they will produce. Why risk that pick on a running back?

Foles, Dalton and probably Wilson will be the qb's coming off the board in the 3rd. If by waiting you mean the 3rdish rounds then yeah.
Or...Foster will be the 2012 version of Peterson. I can nod my head at either side if this argument but, either way, he will be making or breaking lots of leagues next year because if he comes back and is healthy and this year off did him good, there are only about 4 backs in the league that have shown they can hang with him week in and week out. When he's on, he's a tremendous advantage each week unless you have Peterson, Charles, shady, and maybe another guy here or there...
Peterson is the utmost aberration in regards to coming back from a major injury like that. There are a ton of other examples that would steer me way clear of Foster under any circumstance. The mileage and the mounting injuries just scream trouble.

Edit to add this factor, albeit small but he will have a rookie QB lining up under center as well.

 
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Great post, but I disagree about the Rams.

Stacy will be an obvious factor, and I like Bailey to be a great late round pick.

 
I stopped reading after the Bell in the first three rounds is too early. Bell has been every bit as good as Lacy over the last 8 games.
Confused about this as well. Unless something happens to indicate a serious reduction in his touches, he seems very solid and likely to be consistent.
Did you guys even watch football this year? Why do you like Bell? Is it because he is an every down back that catches passes and gets all the goal line carries? He is only on the field for roughly 90% of the offensive snaps... Not touching him unless he falls to the 6th or 7th.
You won't be getting him then.

 
There is no way Le'Veon Bell isn't a Round 1-3 pick. In fact, he'll probably be a later 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder next year. He gets plenty of yards, scores, and catches the ball. What's not to like?

 
I love what Foster has done as a Texans fan but I wouldn't touch him next season for the pick it will likely require. He's got a ton of mileage and basically came out of at least 2 games almost immediately (owners obviously started him and were immediately left wondering where he went). He's had an assortment of nagging leg injuries in recent years and now made it not even half a season with the back. And we have no idea what kind of offense or QB he'll be playing with next season. But those are just facts...

I'm just a homer that watched him from his first training camp here, and these are just my opinions. This dude ran with a chip on his shoulder and an attitude....like he was hungry. I worry about how hungry he is to a degree similar to what MoveToSkypager posted earlier. But then let's say for the sake of argument that he's still hungry. To the naked eye he doesn't seem to have the same juice in his legs he had either....he used to ALWAYS make the first guy miss in the open field. He made big plays in the passing game as well. The first guy ALWAYS whiffed when we swung the ball out to him in the flat. Now that guy gets him. Sure the OL and QB have progressively gone down the toilet but the Foster from 2010-2011 makes plays in similar situations that this version of Foster doesn't make anymore. It seemed like he wasn't even the same guy last season to a degree as well. I don't even really need to discount drafting him due to injury risk. His talent is slipping IMO. I see a guy that's already peaked and headed downhill fast, that's why I won't draft him for the pick it would take.

 
If I could offer one meta-critique of the OP, it's that it's too backward looking. You assume that this year's trends will all continue. The key to winning championships is figuring out what will change.

Look at it this way: If you had written this post a year ago, what would have been the sharpest insights?

  • Count on McCoy for a strong bounce-back year
  • Chip Kelly will make all of the PHI skill-position players more valuable
  • Andy Reid will do wonders for Jamaal Charles
  • Josh Gordon's two-game suspension will depress his ADP and make him a high-value sleeper
  • Manning will have a record-breaking season that will elevate all Denver skill players
  • Moreno's late-season surge in '12 was a sign of things to come
  • Brady's loss of weapons will finally catch up with him
  • First-round RBs who will end up being busts: Spiller, Rice, Richardson, Martin, Foster
  • Zac Stacy ... uh, I have no idea how you could have predicted that
The point is, other than Moreno, none of those insights would have been derived from 2012 trends (and even in Moreno's case, most of us ignored it).

So what will surprise us next year? No idea, but here are a few guesses:

  • Andrew Luck finally makes the leap
  • Bounce-back candidates: Martin, Julio, Rice, Harvin, Pitta
  • WRs who could make the leap: Patterson, Hopkins, Austin, Hilton/Rogers
  • QBs who could benefit from a coaching change: Stafford, RG3
  • WRs who could benefit from a new QB: Blackmon/Shorts, Austin, AJ/Hopkins
  • TEs who could make the leap into elite status: DAllen, Pitta
  • Players on new teams who could break out: Tate, JBell
 
I'm all in on Luck next year as the best value at QB. I think it will be a post hype bounce back season for him. He was still comfortably a top 10 QB overall this year in my league scoring in a "down" year.

 
I'm all in on Luck next year as the best value at QB. I think it will be a post hype bounce back season for him. He was still comfortably a top 10 QB overall this year in my league scoring in a "down" year.
I could see that...bring back Dwayne Allen, Reggie Wayne and/or maybe add a Jeremy Maclin for this guy. I wouldn't mind seeing them ditch Pep Hamilton for a better OC either but it seems inevitable that Luck will be an elite QB one day soon. Luck's the kind of guy you take a shot on taking it to an elite level....

 
I will never say never and try to have an open mind.. I vowed after spending big money the 2 previous years on Rashad Jennings I would never own him again. So I didn't pull the trigger even as a reluctant McFadden owner, and he put up quality production almost every week.

Also, I will try to avoid players and teams who choke when it matters. Or draft and trade before the choking begins. Stafford is the best example. The difference between his poise and decision making in the first 10 weeks vs the last 6 was off the charts. Just pure choking.

 
I love what Foster has done as a Texans fan but I wouldn't touch him next season for the pick it will likely require. He's got a ton of mileage and basically came out of at least 2 games almost immediately (owners obviously started him and were immediately left wondering where he went). He's had an assortment of nagging leg injuries in recent years and now made it not even half a season with the back. And we have no idea what kind of offense or QB he'll be playing with next season. But those are just facts...

I'm just a homer that watched him from his first training camp here, and these are just my opinions. This dude ran with a chip on his shoulder and an attitude....like he was hungry. I worry about how hungry he is to a degree similar to what MoveToSkypager posted earlier. But then let's say for the sake of argument that he's still hungry. To the naked eye he doesn't seem to have the same juice in his legs he had either....he used to ALWAYS make the first guy miss in the open field. He made big plays in the passing game as well. The first guy ALWAYS whiffed when we swung the ball out to him in the flat. Now that guy gets him. Sure the OL and QB have progressively gone down the toilet but the Foster from 2010-2011 makes plays in similar situations that this version of Foster doesn't make anymore. It seemed like he wasn't even the same guy last season to a degree as well. I don't even really need to discount drafting him due to injury risk. His talent is slipping IMO. I see a guy that's already peaked and headed downhill fast, that's why I won't draft him for the pick it would take.
Reasoning like this drives me nuts. By that reasoning, I guess we should completely write off Peterson too because Foster actually has less wear and tear over the last 4seasons then Peterson does. And, omg, petersons production fell by about 40 percent this year compared to last season. It's an obvious sign of decline, yes?

It's almost like people want to manufacture the even rather than truly observe it. Did Foster have a bad season? Yes. But is it possible, just possible to ever get a complete observation on things instead of just sifting out the pieces that support what you want to see? Can we also mention that the texans, as a whole, were utterly pathetic? Can we talk about how no team eyeballing a #1 pick overall has a super elite RB? Jamaal Charles last year was not jamaal Charles this year. Can we talk about how foot to back issues are commonly a progressive nagging thing that just tends to move from one spot to another due to over compensation until it gets completely healed?

I'm not here to sell you a used car or anything but every year we see these kinds of statements on player after player after player...as soon as people are sick of their sustained success, we can't wait to toss them to the side. And every year these are the guys that make that final piece of good ff teams. People have been writing off Wayne and AJ, Moreno and Steve smith, mjd and Colton, and countless others for years and they have their bad years but they also show why they are the types of players they are.

Don't be that guy that thought Terrell Davis couldn't possibly do anything but fail following the 1997 season.

 
I love what Foster has done as a Texans fan but I wouldn't touch him next season for the pick it will likely require. He's got a ton of mileage and basically came out of at least 2 games almost immediately (owners obviously started him and were immediately left wondering where he went). He's had an assortment of nagging leg injuries in recent years and now made it not even half a season with the back. And we have no idea what kind of offense or QB he'll be playing with next season. But those are just facts...

I'm just a homer that watched him from his first training camp here, and these are just my opinions. This dude ran with a chip on his shoulder and an attitude....like he was hungry. I worry about how hungry he is to a degree similar to what MoveToSkypager posted earlier. But then let's say for the sake of argument that he's still hungry. To the naked eye he doesn't seem to have the same juice in his legs he had either....he used to ALWAYS make the first guy miss in the open field. He made big plays in the passing game as well. The first guy ALWAYS whiffed when we swung the ball out to him in the flat. Now that guy gets him. Sure the OL and QB have progressively gone down the toilet but the Foster from 2010-2011 makes plays in similar situations that this version of Foster doesn't make anymore. It seemed like he wasn't even the same guy last season to a degree as well. I don't even really need to discount drafting him due to injury risk. His talent is slipping IMO. I see a guy that's already peaked and headed downhill fast, that's why I won't draft him for the pick it would take.
Reasoning like this drives me nuts. By that reasoning, I guess we should completely write off Peterson too because Foster actually has less wear and tear over the last 4seasons then Peterson does. And, omg, petersons production fell by about 40 percent this year compared to last season. It's an obvious sign of decline, yes?

It's almost like people want to manufacture the even rather than truly observe it. Did Foster have a bad season? Yes. But is it possible, just possible to ever get a complete observation on things instead of just sifting out the pieces that support what you want to see? Can we also mention that the texans, as a whole, were utterly pathetic? Can we talk about how no team eyeballing a #1 pick overall has a super elite RB? Jamaal Charles last year was not jamaal Charles this year. Can we talk about how foot to back issues are commonly a progressive nagging thing that just tends to move from one spot to another due to over compensation until it gets completely healed?

I'm not here to sell you a used car or anything but every year we see these kinds of statements on player after player after player...as soon as people are sick of their sustained success, we can't wait to toss them to the side. And every year these are the guys that make that final piece of good ff teams. People have been writing off Wayne and AJ, Moreno and Steve smith, mjd and Colton, and countless others for years and they have their bad years but they also show why they are the types of players they are.

Don't be that guy that thought Terrell Davis couldn't possibly do anything but fail following the 1997 season.
Lots of hyperbole in this post - the original poster simply said that he wouldn't touch Foster at his expected ADP. And this is based on a guy that has watched Foster since day one.

 
Guys, if you want to take Bell with your 1st / 2nd Round pick, go for it. But year after year, there's always a Rookie you can grab in Rounds 4 - 6 that gets taken in the 1st Rounds the following year. I'm happy to wait on RB unless a a decent one falls to me.

No way am I relying on Le'veon Bell as my RB1. Taking him in Rounds 1 - 2 won't be a value pick, imo.

Believe me guys, I'm as big of a fan of Bell as you guys are. I just don't need the guy to win me a championship. I'd rather grab Peterson, McCoy, Charles, Chris Johnson, or Lacy as my RB1 and stock up on some Rookies / breakout RB candidates (Giovanni Bernard).

 
Seahawks Defense should be good to go for another-year. And for the production they've given me, I would have no problem taking them early. They are head and shoulders better than Fantasy-wise than most other defenses. I think Arizona and San Francisco would be nice consolation prizes to them, however.
Couldn't disagree more. Every year there's a huge amount of turnover in Top 10 defenses. Far better to target sleeper teams. KC/AZ/CAR went largely undrafted this year and all ended up Top 5.

 
I could succumb to blind homerism and tell you Foster is the greatest and will rush for over 2000 yards I guess....I'm telling you exactly what I've observed watching every game he has played for Houston. I want him to come back to 2010-11 form, but I don't think he will simply by what I see each week. I'm not manufacturing anything, I love the guy but he didn't even look quite the same to me in 2012, and Kubiak beat the crap out of him that season. Someone will draft him hoping that he is that completely dominant player again, and it is my humble opinion his production will disappoint based on his ADP (which I would guess would be top 3 or 4 rounds)

 
I could succumb to blind homerism and tell you Foster is the greatest and will rush for over 2000 yards I guess....I'm telling you exactly what I've observed watching every game he has played for Houston. I want him to come back to 2010-11 form, but I don't think he will simply by what I see each week. I'm not manufacturing anything, I love the guy but he didn't even look quite the same to me in 2012, and Kubiak beat the crap out of him that season. Someone will draft him hoping that he is that completely dominant player again, and it is my humble opinion his production will disappoint based on his ADP (which I would guess would be top 3 or 4 rounds)
Besides, getting a new 1st Round Running Back can be fun to watch as a fan.

 
Owners will wring their hands and debate whether they should bench their studs when they go up against any NFCW team. All four teams could be top 8 defenses.

 
The problem with these posts is people are assuming what was true at the end of one season will carry over to the next season. If that was the case we wouldn't have the Spiller, Rice and Eli ruined my team threads.

I like to look at it the other way when going into the next year.

I think the Giants have great value going into next season, Cruz is going to be going as a wr2 in most draft and we have seen what he can do. Eli Manning could have great value as well, remember all the people saying they would never draft Rivers again only to watch him come back and play well this year and help fantasy owners.

Last year it was Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, CJ Spiller, and Stevan Ridley that were going to be the new Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, and Jamal Charles and they all had down years. Now everyone is saying it is Leveon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, and Zac Stacy. Will they all fall flat on their face? Probably not but odds are at least one of them gets hurt or disappoints fantasy owners.

Remember way back to the start of the year and you said you would never draft guys like Ryan Matthews, Fred Jackson, Frank Gore for various reasons? Well they all had good seasons and gave teams great value. Remember guys like Martin, Richardson, Spiller, Ridley, Rice, Foster are going to be some of those guys next, don't right them off too quickly.

My last bit of advice I can offer is the mistake I have made several times and hope I learn from it, but draft, trade, or pick up the best player. Don't pass on a waiver receiver because you think he will never see your starting lineup.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I think the Giants have great value going into next season, Cruz is going to be going as a wr2 in most draft and we have seen what he can do. Eli Manning could have great value as well, remember all the people saying they would never draft Rivers again only to watch him come back and play well this year and help fantasy owners.
If Killdrive is still OC, there will be no Rivers bounce back season. Rivers bounced back with new ideas on offense. The same old stale O philosophy will still be in place in NY if KillDrive is back. Gomer wants KillDrive back because he doesn't have to learn a new system.....and neither do the defenses that go against him.

 
I'm going to stay away from the Eagles next year. They'll get figured out in the offseason.

 
This thread illustrates something I have thematically addressed in a number of other threads, but it is relevant here, too: don't be the owner who takes a high risk player in rounds 1, 2, or 3 and don't get locked into thinking any one position is paramount over another.

You sabotage yourself by avoiding a safe choice early. Take risks, bu wait until you have anchors to offset volatility. There is no problem taking Manning, Graham, and Andre Johhson as your first few picks. Roll with speculative rbs later.

 

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