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Thoughts on the Old Guard (Henry/Zeke/Hopkins/Kelce): How Much Is Left in the Tank? (1 Viewer)

zamboni

Footballguy
Heading into my draft, I'm trying to determine the value of Henry, Zeke, Hopkins and Kelce - historical studs whose best days may be in the past.

What are the thoughts on how much these guys still have in the tank?

I may be missing a few, and next year we may have a bunch more that will be at that stage (perhaps Fournette, Kamara, Jones, Conner) but these are the closest to the end guys right now IMO.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
I think they all have a decent amount left in the tank.

I wouldn't be surprised if Henry finished as RB1 this season. I think anyone not having him as a top-3 RB is likely going to regret it. He's the overwhelming favorite to lead the NFL in touches.

Zeke's problem isn't Zeke in my opinion, its that Tony Pollard is an excellent player. That Dallas RB situation is Gordon/Ekeler all over again in my opinion, and much like then, I don't think it means the older player is done, but the younger one is just better, though with the WR issues Dallas has, I'm fully expecting Pollard to see plenty of snaps out wide. I view Zeke as an RB2, but would want to pair him with Pollard.

Hopkins has probably lost a step, but he's also going around 40 WRs into drafts. Tough to pass up that value late. He could still be the Cards #1 WR when he comes back, and put up top 10-15 numbers when he comes back.

Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down, and is an elite stud. He's absolutely a quality 2nd round pick. No reason he can't put up another 1100-10 season, and there is upside from there, if nobody really steps up at WR.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
He's still probably a ways from the cliff, but his numbers did seem to fall off in the second half of the regular season last year (prior to the big playoff performance). I think he's far from done, but at age 32, it's possible that we see a gradual dropoff to where he doesn't provide nearly as much of an advantage at the position as in years past.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised if Henry finished as RB1 this season. I think anyone not having him as a top-3 RB is likely going to regret it. He's the overwhelming favorite to lead the NFL in touches.
I agree with you, although I would have a bit more concern in PPR leagues given that he rarely catches passes. And if the overall offense drops off with the loss of AJ Brown, they may need to be a bit more pass heavy.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
He's still probably a ways from the cliff, but his numbers did seem to fall off in the second half of the regular season last year (prior to the big playoff performance). I think he's far from done, but at age 32, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we see a gradual dropoff.
Kelce had 2 games outside of the top-5 from week 8 through week 17.

I kinda think people are looking at Kelce's age, and his stats compared to 2020 and assuming he's falling off, when the reality is that 2020 was a career season, and the best yardage season in the history of the TE position, he was always going to come down from that.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
He's still probably a ways from the cliff, but his numbers did seem to fall off in the second half of the regular season last year (prior to the big playoff performance). I think he's far from done, but at age 32, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we see a gradual dropoff.
Kelce had 2 games outside of the top-5 from week 8 through week 17.

I kinda think people are looking at Kelce's age, and his stats compared to 2020 and assuming he's falling off, when the reality is that 2020 was a career season, and the best yardage season in the history of the TE position, he was always going to come down from that.
Fair point that 2020 was a career season, but also leads to my point about how much of a relative value advantage he'll provide at the position going forward with Andrews, Pitts and Waller. Fortunately, the TE landscape is pretty barren and shows no sign of changing any time soon.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised if Henry finished as RB1 this season. I think anyone not having him as a top-3 RB is likely going to regret it. He's the overwhelming favorite to lead the NFL in touches.
I agree with you, although I would have a bit more concern in PPR leagues given that he rarely catches passes. And if the overall offense drops off with the loss of AJ Brown, they may need to be a bit more pass heavy.
For what its worth, he was on pace to shatter his career high in catches and targets before getting hurt last year.

Small sample size (obviously) but Henry had 144 and 177 yards in the games Brown mostly missed, and did miss last year. When Brown missed 2 games in 2020, Henry had 1 bad game and 1 huge game.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Hypothetical question: in a PPR league (traditional 1/point per 10 yards, 6 points receving/rushing TDs), without considering existing roster composition, would you take Kelce or Henry?

Both of their ADPs are very close (source: FantasyPros).
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Hypothetical question: in a PPR league (traditional 1/point per 10 yards, 6 points receving/rushing TDs), without considering existing roster composition, would you take Kelce or Henry?

Both of their ADPs are very close (source: FantasyPros).
Henry easily. I have Henry as a mid 1st, and could argue top-3. Kelce is more a top of round 2 guy for me.

ETA: Henry is in the 3-8 range depending on how you prefer to build, Kelce is in the 12-16 range.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
I agree with you, although I would have a bit more concern in PPR leagues given that he rarely catches passes. And if the overall offense drops off with the loss of AJ Brown, they may need to be a bit more pass heavy.
Sure, we already know Henry's big appeal is non-PPR, but TEN being a bit more pass heavy? Did you know TEN averaged more carries in their 5 losses than they did in their 12 wins last year? Henry easily tops 300 carries even if the team goes 0-17, as long as he stays healthy.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
I had fallen into the habit of using FF Calculator for ADP selections, thanks for helping me change a habit.
Using FF Calc blows right now, because 90% of the time it's on autodraft. Their ADP isn't even close. I like Yahoo's, because more often than not, it's humans making the picks.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I had fallen into the habit of using FF Calculator for ADP selections, thanks for helping me change a habit.
Using FF Calc blows right now, because 90% of the time it's on autodraft. Their ADP isn't even close. I like Yahoo's, because more often than not, it's humans making the picks.
Interesting.
MFL's is probably the best as you can take out mock drafts, and set it to 100% humans.
hard to find but here's the link and you can then just change ppr or non ppr.
 
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Chaka

Footballguy
I had fallen into the habit of using FF Calculator for ADP selections, thanks for helping me change a habit.
Using FF Calc blows right now, because 90% of the time it's on autodraft. Their ADP isn't even close. I like Yahoo's, because more often than not, it's humans making the picks.
Interesting.
MFL's is probably the best as you can take out mock drafts, and set it to 100% humans.
hard to find but here's the link and you can then just change ppr or non ppr.
Yup. That was my go-to until you mentioned FFC in another thread. I never closed the tab in my browser and got lazy.

You're a bad influence D.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
ya that's why the mfl one is good, you can set it to AFTER AUG 15 for some pretty up to date data and it takes out dynasty, rookie only, mocks, etc and keeps it strictly to what real people's drafts that are hosted on the site go
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
ya that's why the mfl one is good, you can set it to AFTER AUG 15 for some pretty up to date data and it takes out dynasty, rookie only, mocks, etc and keeps it strictly to what real people's drafts that are hosted on the site go
My one worry with MFL is that it will still be impacted by dynasty. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve always known of MFL as a dynasty site and don’t know anyone who uses it for redraft. I think dynasty players are far more likely to fall for young players and avoid veterans. In the end nowhere is perfect and paying attention to the player list on the site you draft from is probably the best strategy.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
ya that's why the mfl one is good, you can set it to AFTER AUG 15 for some pretty up to date data and it takes out dynasty, rookie only, mocks, etc and keeps it strictly to what real people's drafts that are hosted on the site go
My one worry with MFL is that it will still be impacted by dynasty. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve always known of MFL as a dynasty site and don’t know anyone who uses it for redraft. I think dynasty players are far more likely to fall for young players and avoid veterans. In the end nowhere is perfect and paying attention to the player list on the site you draft from is probably the best strategy.
There are tons of redraft leagues on MFL and you can filter their adp info for redraft only.
 

yoman

Footballguy
Kelce would be the only one of those players I would be excited about drafting unless they fell below their ADP. I am not excited about the Titan's overall offense. There are other players going around where Zeke is that I like a little better. The Hopkins situation has him at a discount but there are now even more mouths to feed in the Arizona offense so I don't see have a good feeling about him coming back and becoming a top tier WR
 

Deamon

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
ya that's why the mfl one is good, you can set it to AFTER AUG 15 for some pretty up to date data and it takes out dynasty, rookie only, mocks, etc and keeps it strictly to what real people's drafts that are hosted on the site go
My one worry with MFL is that it will still be impacted by dynasty. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve always known of MFL as a dynasty site and don’t know anyone who uses it for redraft. I think dynasty players are far more likely to fall for young players and avoid veterans. In the end nowhere is perfect and paying attention to the player list on the site you draft from is probably the best strategy.
you can filter where it's ONLY redraft ADP and no dynstasy, etc.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
ya that's why the mfl one is good, you can set it to AFTER AUG 15 for some pretty up to date data and it takes out dynasty, rookie only, mocks, etc and keeps it strictly to what real people's drafts that are hosted on the site go
My one worry with MFL is that it will still be impacted by dynasty. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve always known of MFL as a dynasty site and don’t know anyone who uses it for redraft. I think dynasty players are far more likely to fall for young players and avoid veterans. In the end nowhere is perfect and paying attention to the player list on the site you draft from is probably the best strategy.
you can filter where it's ONLY redraft ADP and no dynstasy, etc.
I get that but the people drafting there are likely dynasty focused people and have a POV that bleeds into their redraft approach.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
This has been the weirdest year for redraft ADP IMO and I think the explosion of best ball is behind it. Because "best ball season" comes before redraft leagues get going, it has created ADPs that are wildly different at so many locations. Some are being totally influenced by best ball, some are pretty insulated from it. BB requires some different approaches to drafting than redraft. Plus the BB drafters tend to be pretty sharp, respond quickly to new info but also more susceptible to fads or falling head over heels for the next hot thing. Also BB loves their WRs way more than redraft players. It's really hard to get an idea of what your old old school home league draft will look like.
ya that's why the mfl one is good, you can set it to AFTER AUG 15 for some pretty up to date data and it takes out dynasty, rookie only, mocks, etc and keeps it strictly to what real people's drafts that are hosted on the site go
My one worry with MFL is that it will still be impacted by dynasty. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve always known of MFL as a dynasty site and don’t know anyone who uses it for redraft. I think dynasty players are far more likely to fall for young players and avoid veterans. In the end nowhere is perfect and paying attention to the player list on the site you draft from is probably the best strategy.
you can filter where it's ONLY redraft ADP and no dynstasy, etc.
I get that but the people drafting there are likely dynasty focused people and have a POV that bleeds into their redraft approach.
Lol that's a pretty ridiculous point of view!

People aren't dumb, they can adjust to redraft and with hundreds of drafts, you wouldn't see any difference even if so, maybe the smallest bump in rookies but that's a stretch. MFL runs way more redraft than dynasty drafts.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I get that but the people drafting there are likely dynasty focused people and have a POV that bleeds into their redraft approach.
I am not sure why you think MFL doesn't cater to redraft, or is skewed towards dynasty. A redraft is a redraft, it's a little weird to think that just because someone participates in a dynasty they can't properly focus on their redraft leagues as well.

Either way, rest assured there are plenty of redraft only types on MFL. They've been around since long before dynasties became mainstream.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
In a 1.5 PPR for TEs, doesn't Kelce and Andrews have to be considered 1st round picks instead of 2nd?
You could make a case for taking both at the 1/2 turn, if you can flex. In leagues where WR's got 1PPR and TE's got 1.5PPR, Andrews would've finished behind only Cooper Kupp, and Kelce would've finished behind Davante, Deebo, and Justin.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
In a 1.5 PPR for TEs, doesn't Kelce and Andrews have to be considered 1st round picks instead of 2nd?
Kelce yes. Andrews not really. You can find lots of adp with this format and I believe kelce is late first and Andrews early to mid 2nd but I'd have to look, I'm kinda assuming.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
Kelce yes. Andrews not really. You can find lots of adp with this format and I believe kelce is late first and Andrews early to mid 2nd but I'd have to look, I'm kinda assuming.
Comical how we posted at the same time with different answers, huh? :P
 

Deamon

Footballguy
In a 1.5 PPR for TEs, doesn't Kelce and Andrews have to be considered 1st round picks instead of 2nd?
You could make a case for taking both at the 1/2 turn, if you can flex. In leagues where WR's got 1PPR and TE's got 1.5PPR, Andrews would've finished behind only Cooper Kupp, and Kelce would've finished behind Davante, Deebo, and Justin.
Haha ya, I mean Kelce lost Hill so there's some vacated targets there. Tough to say but surely lots of FFPC drafts out there to look at that use that format.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
personally I let others pick the RB’s at this stage. They seem to drop off the cliff more often than find the fountain of youth, especially when they are chosen higher than they deserve. The only player of the four the OP listed I would take is Kelce. I could see his yards decreasing, but he’s still a elite red zone threat nd should get DD TD’s.
 

need2know

Footballguy
I think they all have a decent amount left in the tank.

I wouldn't be surprised if Henry finished as RB1 this season. I think anyone not having him as a top-3 RB is likely going to regret it. He's the overwhelming favorite to lead the NFL in touches.

Zeke's problem isn't Zeke in my opinion, its that Tony Pollard is an excellent player. That Dallas RB situation is Gordon/Ekeler all over again in my opinion, and much like then, I don't think it means the older player is done, but the younger one is just better, though with the WR issues Dallas has, I'm fully expecting Pollard to see plenty of snaps out wide. I view Zeke as an RB2, but would want to pair him with Pollard.

Hopkins has probably lost a step, but he's also going around 40 WRs into drafts. Tough to pass up that value late. He could still be the Cards #1 WR when he comes back, and put up top 10-15 numbers when he comes back.

Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down, and is an elite stud. He's absolutely a quality 2nd round pick. No reason he can't put up another 1100-10 season, and there is upside from there, if nobody really steps up at WR.
Agree with all except zeke. That guy has lost more than a step
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I get that but the people drafting there are likely dynasty focused people and have a POV that bleeds into their redraft approach.
I am not sure why you think MFL doesn't cater to redraft, or is skewed towards dynasty. A redraft is a redraft, it's a little weird to think that just because someone participates in a dynasty they can't properly focus on their redraft leagues as well.

Either way, rest assured there are plenty of redraft only types on MFL. They've been around since long before dynasties became mainstream.
Maybe it's my own self bias but I know personally that all the prep I do for dynasty puts a ton of attention on rookies, 2nd year players and thus when redraft fantasy season comes a long I know am far more aware of those players than I was before I played dynasty. Not even saying that is bad, just influences how I think and draft even in redraft. Maybe I am just an idiot and can't get out of my own way.

As for MFL, I know they are probably the largest dynasty site out there but there is redraft is so much smaller than Yahoo and ESPN. Plus, I have to imagine their crowd is far more into fantasy football than the casual environment one might see on Yahoo, ESPN and often in home leagues.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
personally I let others pick the RB’s at this stage. They seem to drop off the cliff more often than find the fountain of youth, especially when they are chosen higher than they deserve. The only player of the four the OP listed I would take is Kelce. I could see his yards decreasing, but he’s still a elite red zone threat nd should get DD TD’s.
The RBs scare the heck out of me but Kelce does make me a little nervous. Age 33 is really getting up there. We have seen great TEs be effective at this age and beyond but this is the age we do typically see them slip a bit. At TE slipping from elite to very good is a huge slide- especially when talking about a player being drafted in the first 15 picks.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I get that but the people drafting there are likely dynasty focused people and have a POV that bleeds into their redraft approach.
I am not sure why you think MFL doesn't cater to redraft, or is skewed towards dynasty. A redraft is a redraft, it's a little weird to think that just because someone participates in a dynasty they can't properly focus on their redraft leagues as well.

Either way, rest assured there are plenty of redraft only types on MFL. They've been around since long before dynasties became mainstream.
Maybe it's my own self bias but I know personally that all the prep I do for dynasty puts a ton of attention on rookies, 2nd year players and thus when redraft fantasy season comes a long I know am far more aware of those players than I was before I played dynasty. Not even saying that is bad, just influences how I think and draft even in redraft. Maybe I am just an idiot and can't get out of my own way.

As for MFL, I know they are probably the largest dynasty site out there but there is redraft is so much smaller than Yahoo and ESPN. Plus, I have to imagine their crowd is far more into fantasy football than the casual environment one might see on Yahoo, ESPN and often in home leagues.
Come on brother, don't be so hard on yourself. I am certain you can get out of your own way.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
The RBs scare the heck out of me but Kelce does make me a little nervous. Age 33 is really getting up there. We have seen great TEs be effective at this age and beyond but this is the age we do typically see them slip a bit. At TE slipping from elite to very good is a huge slide- especially when talking about a player being drafted in the first 15 picks.
Not taking Kelce as TE1 feels like classic overthinking IMO.

We are in an era where old notions about all players, except RBs for the most part, play longer and at a higher level than ever before.

Paradigm, meet Shift.
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
personally I let others pick the RB’s at this stage. They seem to drop off the cliff more often than find the fountain of youth, especially when they are chosen higher than they deserve. The only player of the four the OP listed I would take is Kelce. I could see his yards decreasing, but he’s still a elite red zone threat nd should get DD TD’s.
The RBs scare the heck out of me but Kelce does make me a little nervous. Age 33 is really getting up there. We have seen great TEs be effective at this age and beyond but this is the age we do typically see them slip a bit. At TE slipping from elite to very good is a huge slide- especially when talking about a player being drafted in the first 15 picks.
I agree, but he does have a lot of trade value also. If you don’t like how things are going with him, he should get a nice haul in return.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Not taking Kelce as TE1 feels like classic overthinking IMO.

We are in an era where old notions about all players, except RBs for the most part, play longer and at a higher level than ever before.

Paradigm, meet Shift.
I certainly have Kelce as my TE1. The question is do I have Kelce above Saquon, Swift, Adams, Diggs, Kamara?
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Not taking Kelce as TE1 feels like classic overthinking IMO.

We are in an era where old notions about all players, except RBs for the most part, play longer and at a higher level than ever before.

Paradigm, meet Shift.
I certainly have Kelce as my TE1. The question is do I have Kelce above Saquon, Swift, Adams, Diggs, Kamara?
Yup - that’s the issue. Not whether Kelce is the #1 TE (almost a given), but which RB/WRs would you draft him over in a PPR league.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Yup - that’s the issue. Not whether Kelce is the #1 TE (almost a given), but which RB/WRs would you draft him over in a PPR league.
I certainly like the idea of Kelce around the turn, getting 1100/10 from the TE spot is a huge advantage and Kelce comes with even more upside that that. What other TE can you say 1300/14 is on the table? However, at TE the margins are so thin. If Kelce plays more like TE5 than the pick was a complete waste.
 

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