Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Great idea for a thread by noneother in the Rivers thread.
I think something like this is worth doing every year for those in dynasty leagues. I know Sig frequently does it in the Shark Pool for the RB (and sometimes the WR/QB groups, too). We all do it in our heads, but I think it's a great exercise to help improve your future draft boards. Probably works better if you stay true to your original impressions.
Anyway, here's his post and my reply. I figured it was worth starting a separate thread.
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Top 10 potential
Willis, Ryans, Sims, Thurman
If you couldn't see the potential in Willis and Ryans based on the information at hand by the end of the preseason, you weren't looking hard enough. Sims projected highly in the Derrick Brooks mold. And you can still search for my man-love posts on Thurman from my pre-staff days. I've cooled on Sims significantly and, well, Thurman is another story.
Top 15 potential
Mayo, Lofton, Posluszny, Beason, Hawk, Ruud, Tatupu
Not much to say here. I would have argued that Beason had the most long term upside of this group, but Connor may put a dent in that argument. Magaw turned me onto Tatupu and I had come around on him (pre-staff days) by August.
Top 25 potential
Rivers, Dizon, Greenway, Crowder, Timmons
This is the tough group for me. Relatively big fan of Greenway and Timmons. Jury remains out on both, but it's not in my favor so far. I'm a little off the consensus on Dizon and Rivers, and that'll be interesting to follow.
Top 36 potential
Connor, Harris, Jackson, Johnson
Harris is the big miss here. After watching him play and considering the scheme, he should have been at least a tier higher. My dynasty rankings note what I think of him now. Connor may make me look equally silly.
For this season, I'd add Gooden into the top 25 group and strongly consider Bell among the top 36.
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Dizon is likely to move up in my redraft rankings with the news that Millen/Marinelli are already going back on their "our rookie will start out as a SLB" talk. Lofton and Rivers (and Connor) have room to move up if they win every down starting MLB roles. Mayo is probably stuck in the 30-40 range for me unless he looks very impressive on the field during the preseason and projects to 60 snaps/game.
I think this is a good exercise for everyone to do. I was planning to post a thread discussing these guys after June minicamps gave us enough information to go on with this year's newbies, but it might be even more important to do now.
I think something like this is worth doing every year for those in dynasty leagues. I know Sig frequently does it in the Shark Pool for the RB (and sometimes the WR/QB groups, too). We all do it in our heads, but I think it's a great exercise to help improve your future draft boards. Probably works better if you stay true to your original impressions.
Anyway, here's his post and my reply. I figured it was worth starting a separate thread.
Willis and Posluszny were in the top 15 for me in August last year, and I may have had Willis nine in the last pre-season redraft ranking. Beason was down in the 30s as a WLB who wasn't in the nickel. Ryans was in my top 15 redraft in 2006. I wasn't on staff before then.Hindsight is easy of course, but here's how I think I'd have tiered the consensus top five IDP LB prospects from the past four classes (long term potential) based on scouting reports, scheme and situation only...
___________________
Top 10 potential
Willis, Ryans, Sims, Thurman
If you couldn't see the potential in Willis and Ryans based on the information at hand by the end of the preseason, you weren't looking hard enough. Sims projected highly in the Derrick Brooks mold. And you can still search for my man-love posts on Thurman from my pre-staff days. I've cooled on Sims significantly and, well, Thurman is another story.
Top 15 potential
Mayo, Lofton, Posluszny, Beason, Hawk, Ruud, Tatupu
Not much to say here. I would have argued that Beason had the most long term upside of this group, but Connor may put a dent in that argument. Magaw turned me onto Tatupu and I had come around on him (pre-staff days) by August.
Top 25 potential
Rivers, Dizon, Greenway, Crowder, Timmons
This is the tough group for me. Relatively big fan of Greenway and Timmons. Jury remains out on both, but it's not in my favor so far. I'm a little off the consensus on Dizon and Rivers, and that'll be interesting to follow.
Top 36 potential
Connor, Harris, Jackson, Johnson
Harris is the big miss here. After watching him play and considering the scheme, he should have been at least a tier higher. My dynasty rankings note what I think of him now. Connor may make me look equally silly.
For this season, I'd add Gooden into the top 25 group and strongly consider Bell among the top 36.
____________________
Dizon is likely to move up in my redraft rankings with the news that Millen/Marinelli are already going back on their "our rookie will start out as a SLB" talk. Lofton and Rivers (and Connor) have room to move up if they win every down starting MLB roles. Mayo is probably stuck in the 30-40 range for me unless he looks very impressive on the field during the preseason and projects to 60 snaps/game.
I think this is a good exercise for everyone to do. I was planning to post a thread discussing these guys after June minicamps gave us enough information to go on with this year's newbies, but it might be even more important to do now.
