Over the past few decades, no position has evolved more than that of the wide receiver. It wasn't until 1986 that the NFL had its first ever 750-catch receiver (Charlie Joiner). Today, 28 players have hit that benchmark, with over half of them having begun their careers in the '90s or '00s. Wes Welker is now the fifth player with 330 receptions over a three-year span (joining Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Cris Carter and Herman Moore), and he's not even the best receiver on his own team. The average first-team All-Pro WR, as selected by the Associated Press, averaged 53 receptions, 961 yards and 9.5 touchdowns in the '70s; this decade, those averages are up to 97 receptions, 1439 yards and 12.5 scores. Wide receiver records are constantly being broken, and numbers that looked terrific in the '70s looked mediocre in the '90s and are underwhelming today.
With that backdrop, it makes sense to analyze Tim Brown, Cris Carter and Andre Reed together. Each player's HOF case largely depends on how he compared to his peers during his playing days and how he now stacks up against others already in Canton. Brown's and Carter's career perfectly overlapped; both were drafted in the late '80s, were elite for most of the '90s, and were still productive at the beginning of this decade. Reed was a couple of years older, but was still a contemporary of Brown and Carter, and peaked during roughly the same time. All three made the Pro Bowl in 1993 and 1994. All had long careers and then chose to play one final season in a new uniform over retiring. Reed played for 15 seasons with the Bills and then one with the Redskins; Carter played 12 years with the Eagles and Vikings, before finishing up with the Dolphins; Brown played for Al Davis Raiders for 16 seasons before reuniting with Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay. Ultimately, at least one but not all of them will make the Hall of Fame. So who gets inducted?
Analyzing each player's Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections gets us nowhere; all have equally strong performances in those categories.
About a year ago, I came up with a formula to grade all WRs independent of era. I plan on tweaking that formula in the off-season, but it serves as a good starting point for discussion. I ranked Brown at #11, Carter at #17 and Reed at #35. That formula excluded post-season data, which we'll revisit in a few paragraphs. The table below shows how many times each receiver ranked among the top X receivers in the league, according to the metric used from the Greatest WRs ever formula referenced above.
Top 3 Top 5 Top 8 Top 12 Top 20
Brown 2 4 5 6 9
Carter 0 1 6 9 10
Reed 1 3 4 5 9
Carter had a bunch of very good seasons but no top-three ones; Reed had a few elite seasons but had a big drop-off after that; Brown had the best combination of quantity and quality, and that's why he ranked first among these receivers when I ranked them last February. Reed and Brown both played in offenses that passed a bit less frequently than the average team; Carter played on offenses that passed a bit more frequently than the average team. We'll keep that in mind as we move on to the analysis.
The problem for Reed is the lack of dominant seasons. In two years where he ranked in the top five in my WR-grading metric, they were just down years for the league where Reed wasn't great. Reed only had one excellent season, one very good one and a bunch of solid years. His best statistical year was '89, where he ranked second in receptions, fifth in receiving yards and tied with six others for sixth in receiving touchdowns. In '94 he again ranked 5th in receiving yards, and in the top ten in both receptions and receiving touchdowns. But as far as standout seasons, that was it. Only five times did Reed rank in the top five in any category whatsoever. The most damning statistic: 1989 and 1994 were the only two years where Reed topped 70 receiving yards per game. Over 120 players in NFL history have as many or more seasons like that.
Reed has great career numbers because he entered the league at age 21, left at age 36, and was at least solid for most of those years. In nine different seasons, Reed finished with between 33 and 63 receiving yards per game (I'm using yards per game so we can compare Reed to players from pre-1978). That's second in NFL history, behind Muhsin Muhammad. Art Monk also has nine such seasons and he's in Canton, but I think he had a stronger case: he was a superior blocker, he has multiple rings, and he put up his numbers with inferior QB play to Reed. You could argue that Reed was unfairly penalized by playing in Buffalo, where it was harder to catch passes than in a dome (Carter) or in California (Brown). On the other hand, Reed played with a HOF QB for most of his career. Reed caught 75% of his touchdowns from Kelly, and surely benefited from playing in the Buffalo K-Gun offense.
Reed was a solid playoff performer, but not a great one. While he had an amazing 8/136/3 against the Oilers in that famous comeback in 1993, Reed also had some playoff duds. In eight of his 19 playoff games -- all during the prime seasons of his career -- he had fewer than 50 yards and no TDs. The Bills already have six Hall of Famers from their famous teams of the '90s; Bruce Smith, Jim Kelly, James Lofton, Thurman Thomas, Marv Levy and Ralph Wilson, Jr., have been memorialized in Canton. And while I like Reed's case a lot better than Steve Tasker's, I see no overwhelming need to induct a player like Reed who did not dominate the game at a position where that should be the requirement.
Let's get to the juicier question -- Brown or Carter? I think the average fan remembers Carter as the better receiver than Brown. Is that correct? Let's start by looking at who was throwing these guys the ball. The tables below show how many receiving yards each player caught in games started by all of the below QBs. I've also listed the average age for the WR and QB in those starts.
CC should have been in on the first try.
CC should have been in on the first try.
CC should have been in on the first try.
There were a couple seasons where Reed had a more yards, but Carter had more receptions, more targets, and more touchdowns.
This. If Carter doesn't go into HOF then it is a complete joke.
