Tim Hightower (1 Viewer)

[TS Garp]

Posted this in another thread and thought it might be worth breaking out into a new discussion:

I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells.

Adding for this thread: I don't see Hightower taking a huge number of carries away from Wells, and if he was strictly a third down pass-catching specialist, I wouldn't be as worried, but when you add in the fact that he's a trusted goal-line runner, I think he becomes more problematic for Wells.

Any insight/projections? For those of you who are bullish on Wells, do you think there will be enough to go around for both of them or do you see Hightower's role being reduced?

 

[gianmarco]

Posted this in another thread and thought it might be worth breaking out into a new discussion:I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells. Adding for this thread: I don't see Hightower taking a huge number of carries away from Wells, and if he was strictly a third down pass-catching specialist, I wouldn't be as worried, but when you add in the fact that he's a trusted goal-line runner, I think he becomes more problematic for Wells.Any insight/projections? For those of you who are bullish on Wells, do you think there will be enough to go around for both of them or do you see Hightower's role being reduced?

2009Week 13 -- Wells 13 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 14 --Wells 15 carriesHightower 2 carriesWeek 15 --Wells 17 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 16 --Wells 17 carriesHightower 10 carriesWeek 17 -- Wells 6 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 18 --Wells 14 carriesHightower 7 carriesWeek 19 --Wells 5 carriesHightower 6 carriesWells -- 87 carries from weeks 13-19 (67%)Hightower -- 43 carries from weeks 13-19 (33%)Clear trend as the season progressed starting from week 13 onward. In that time, he had double digit carries in all but 2 games. One of those was a meaningless blowout in week 17 and the other was the Saints playoff game where they got pounded and got far behind. Hightower, on the other hand, registered single digit carries in all but 1 week where he had 10 carries (compared to 17 for Wells). It's not too difficult to figure out the trend that took place as the season carried on. I know that starting from week 13 is an arbitrary start point that makes the difference more pronounced, but even looking at the whole season, it's obvious Wells carries continued to rise and Hightower's clearly fell. Based on this, I'm not sure why someone would think that Hightower is going to have his #'s significantly eaten into by Hightower.

 

[Young 8]

:I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers.

what ?

 

[TS Garp]

Posted this in another thread and thought it might be worth breaking out into a new discussion:I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells. Adding for this thread: I don't see Hightower taking a huge number of carries away from Wells, and if he was strictly a third down pass-catching specialist, I wouldn't be as worried, but when you add in the fact that he's a trusted goal-line runner, I think he becomes more problematic for Wells.Any insight/projections? For those of you who are bullish on Wells, do you think there will be enough to go around for both of them or do you see Hightower's role being reduced?

2009Week 13 -- Wells 13 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 14 --Wells 15 carriesHightower 2 carriesWeek 15 --Wells 17 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 16 --Wells 17 carriesHightower 10 carriesWeek 17 -- Wells 6 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 18 --Wells 14 carriesHightower 7 carriesWeek 19 --Wells 5 carriesHightower 6 carriesWells -- 87 carries from weeks 13-19 (67%)Hightower -- 43 carries from weeks 13-19 (33%)Clear trend as the season progressed starting from week 13 onward. In that time, he had double digit carries in all but 2 games. One of those was a meaningless blowout in week 17 and the other was the Saints playoff game where they got pounded and got far behind. Hightower, on the other hand, registered single digit carries in all but 1 week where he had 10 carries (compared to 17 for Wells). It's not too difficult to figure out the trend that took place as the season carried on. I know that starting from week 13 is an arbitrary start point that makes the difference more pronounced, but even looking at the whole season, it's obvious Wells carries continued to rise and Hightower's clearly fell. Based on this, I'm not sure why someone would think that Hightower is going to have his #'s significantly eaten into by Hightower.

As stated above, I'm not as concerned about the number of carries -- it's the goal line carries, receptions, and just the overall number of touches.

 

[Captain Hook]

I think projectios for Hightower are based on what you think Matt Leinart will do - don't foget that the number of receptions that gave Hightower fantasy relevance were from a far better quarterback - and one who wanted to throw more than run.

One of the reasons Wizz was so happy to get Wells late in the first round of the 2009 draft was his view of the evolution of the offense run/pass percentages as the offense would change from Warner>Leinart

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

A few things that worry me about Beanie:

1) Dedication- things came out around draft time about how much he "loved" football or was dedicated to it.

2) Injuries - he has been banged up some

3) Fumbling- he put the ball on the ground too much last year

4) Recieving- he isn't great at this

I think Hightower has a nitch, but it will depend on the above factors. Most importantly, how much Beanie improves on the above factors, to how much Hightower plays moving forward.

 

[gianmarco]

Posted this in another thread and thought it might be worth breaking out into a new discussion:I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells. Adding for this thread: I don't see Hightower taking a huge number of carries away from Wells, and if he was strictly a third down pass-catching specialist, I wouldn't be as worried, but when you add in the fact that he's a trusted goal-line runner, I think he becomes more problematic for Wells.Any insight/projections? For those of you who are bullish on Wells, do you think there will be enough to go around for both of them or do you see Hightower's role being reduced?

2009Week 13 -- Wells 13 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 14 --Wells 15 carriesHightower 2 carriesWeek 15 --Wells 17 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 16 --Wells 17 carriesHightower 10 carriesWeek 17 -- Wells 6 carriesHightower 6 carriesWeek 18 --Wells 14 carriesHightower 7 carriesWeek 19 --Wells 5 carriesHightower 6 carriesWells -- 87 carries from weeks 13-19 (67%)Hightower -- 43 carries from weeks 13-19 (33%)Clear trend as the season progressed starting from week 13 onward. In that time, he had double digit carries in all but 2 games. One of those was a meaningless blowout in week 17 and the other was the Saints playoff game where they got pounded and got far behind. Hightower, on the other hand, registered single digit carries in all but 1 week where he had 10 carries (compared to 17 for Wells). It's not too difficult to figure out the trend that took place as the season carried on. I know that starting from week 13 is an arbitrary start point that makes the difference more pronounced, but even looking at the whole season, it's obvious Wells carries continued to rise and Hightower's clearly fell. Based on this, I'm not sure why someone would think that Hightower is going to have his #'s significantly eaten into by Hightower.

As stated above, I'm not as concerned about the number of carries -- it's the goal line carries, receptions, and just the overall number of touches.

Let's take those one at a time.1. Goal line carries -- You have a RB who is now considered the #1 ball carrier (see above), was a 1st round pick, and weighs 228 lbs and runs like a tank. Why would he give up carries to a 220lb #2 RB just because that RB has shown he can score as well? It would be one thing if Wells was 200 lbs and Hightower 220. Or if Wells continually failed at the goalline. Or if it was an even split. But that's not the case. I understand Hightower is a competent goal line RB. I understand he may be better than other #1 RBs in the league in that spot. But Wells is bigger and better. It's the same reason that Chester Taylor was a very competent goal line RB while in Minnesota and weighs 215 lbs himself. But you don't pull Peterson to put him in just because he can do it. Will he get some goal line looks? Sure he will. But he's not going to get the majority of them and I wouldn't be concerned whatsoever about this.2. Receptions -- Hightower is almost definitely going to have more receptions than Wells. That does lower his value somewhat in ppr leagues. But it doesn't mean he still can't have significant fantasy relevance. AP caught ~20 balls his 1st two years. Thomas Jones has 46 receptions his last 2 years. Ryan Grant had 25 receptions last year. DeAngelo Williams has had <30 receptions the last 3 years. Benson had 17 receptions last year. In other words, RBs can still score well without catching the ball a lot. It limits their total upside unless an absolutely elite talent (like AP), but still can easily do well enough to finish top 10. 3. Overall number of touches -- This is related to #2. His touches won't be out of this world because he won't get the receptions. But this has already been stated. Using this as "another" reason to be down on him is simply restating the above. Now, if you think he won't get receptions AND will have limited carries, then I can understand. But I'm pretty sure Beanie's carries will increased modestly from last year and should easily put him in the 240-250 carry range. That's more than enough that you wouldn't have to be worried about Hightower.

 

[gianmarco]

A few things that worry me about Beanie:1) Dedication- things came out around draft time about how much he "loved" football or was dedicated to it.2) Injuries - he has been banged up some3) Fumbling- he put the ball on the ground too much last year4) Recieving- he isn't great at thisI think Hightower has a nitch, but it will depend on the above factors. Most importantly, how much Beanie improves on the above factors, to how much Hightower plays moving forward.

1) Anything since then? You think he's going to quit? 2) 2009 games played -- 163) Wells -- 4 fumbles, 2 lost Hightower -- 5 fumbles, 4 lostExplain to me how I should be concerned about Wells losing time based on the above please.4) You don't have to be a great receiver to be a very good RB (both for NFL and fantasy purposes)

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

A few things that worry me about Beanie:

1) Dedication- things came out around draft time about how much he "loved" football or was dedicated to it.

2) Injuries - he has been banged up some

3) Fumbling- he put the ball on the ground too much last year

4) Recieving- he isn't great at this

I think Hightower has a nitch, but it will depend on the above factors. Most importantly, how much Beanie improves on the above factors, to how much Hightower plays moving forward.

1) Anything since then? You think he's going to quit? Not that I've read, but just like Vince Young....it is in the back of my head.

2) 2009 games played -- 16

For one year, under 200 touches.

3) Wells -- 4 fumbles, 2 lost

Hightower -- 5 fumbles, 4 lost

Wasn't aware of Hightower's fumbles....just remember watching a couple of games when Beanie fumbled or...the ball moved quite a bit during a run but he held onto it(i'm thinking the GB game here offhand)

Explain to me how I should be concerned about Wells losing time based on the above please.

If Beanie has problems with any of the 3 above...then Hightowers playing time increases.

4) You don't have to be a great receiver to be a very good RB (both for NFL and fantasy purposes)

not at all...but it creates more playing time for Hightower.

I'm on the Beanie bandwagon....don't take that wrong. However, he has had issues with all of the above issues in the past couple of seasons and it is something to take into account when trying to guage value for Hightower.If Beanie improves on the above 4 issues or continues to maintain(being healthy for instance) then I don't see a need to roster Hightower as anything more than a handcuff.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Wasn't the idea that Hightower is a gifted goaline runner debunked on these boards already? I thought someone actually looked into it and his actual success rate around the goaline was below average.

Hightower was pulled several times inside the five for Beanie last year, though it seemed more often than not they just let whomever was handling that drive do the goaline work. With Wells taking over more drives, he should get the goaline work along with it, especially since he seemed much better down there (I don't have the actual numbers, but I recall Beanie looking very good powering in for some TDs he should have never had a chance to score on, whereas Hightower the last two years has pretty much scored on the plays that the blocking allowed it and not scored on the ones that it didn't).

Also, someone else kind of pointed out the end of the year, but if you look at it even further...

Week 14

Beanie 15car 79yds

Hightower 2car 3yds

Week 15

Beanie 17-110

Hightower 6-4

Week 16

Beanie 17-68

Hightower 10-32

Week 17

Beanie 6-19

Hightower 6-24

Playoffs Week 1

Beanie 14-91

Hightower 7-19

Playoffs Week 2

Beanie 5-7

Hightower 6-87 (70 yard run)

Hightower was basically worthwhile for ONE run over the last 6 weeks of the season, everything else was Beanie. And before anyone asks, Hightower averaged 17 yards receiving over that same span to Beanie's 11, so not exactly a big difference there.

 

[footballman_696969]

Wasn't the idea that Hightower is a gifted goaline runner debunked on these boards already? I thought someone actually looked into it and his actual success rate around the goaline was below average.

I'm not sure how successful Hightower was compared to other RBs in the league, but it appears he did much better in that category than Wells last year.Data Dominator

Hightower scored 8 TDs inside the 10 on 16 attempts

Wells scored 4 TDs inside the 10 on 14 attempts

 

[TS Garp]

1. Goal line carries -- You have a RB who is now considered the #1 ball carrier (see above), was a 1st round pick, and weighs 228 lbs and runs like a tank. Why would he give up carries to a 220lb #2 RB just because that RB has shown he can score as well? It would be one thing if Wells was 200 lbs and Hightower 220. Or if Wells continually failed at the goalline. Or if it was an even split. But that's not the case. I understand Hightower is a competent goal line RB. I understand he may be better than other #1 RBs in the league in that spot. But Wells is bigger and better. It's the same reason that Chester Taylor was a very competent goal line RB while in Minnesota and weighs 215 lbs himself. But you don't pull Peterson to put him in just because he can do it. Will he get some goal line looks? Sure he will. But he's not going to get the majority of them and I wouldn't be concerned whatsoever about this.

I'm not sure why you're automatically assuming that. I think the logic of "Wells is bigger, so he'll get more goal-line work" is faulty. You might think that qualifies him, but if the coaches trust Hightower in this role, why would they switch it up? Hightower got a goal-line carry in the playoffs and in 2 of the last 3 games. I'm not saying that Wells won't get any goal-line carries, as he also get some work there at the end of the year, but assuming that he's going to take over almost completely seems flawed.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think another thing to take into account here is how much will Arizona run the football?

If they become a more running team, then that pie will be bigger for both Wells and Hightower. However, with that said....I can't see Hightower getting anything higher than 40% unless injury or other major problems happen to Beanie. He is too talented to let a Hightower take many carries away.

 

[Multiple Scores]

A few things that worry me about Beanie:1) Dedication- things came out around draft time about how much he "loved" football or was dedicated to it.2) Injuries - he has been banged up some3) Fumbling- he put the ball on the ground too much last year4) Recieving- he isn't great at thisI think Hightower has a nitch, but it will depend on the above factors. Most importantly, how much Beanie improves on the above factors, to how much Hightower plays moving forward.

1. I wouldn't worry about that at this point, there was talk of that, not sure how much validity. Either way there was nothing seen from last season to cause any concern.2. Was way overblown when he came out of college, everyone gets nicked up, Hightower could get injured causing a larger load for Wells, everyone who plays RB is at risk.3. I too worry about this, however it seemed to get better towards the later part in the year, a concern either way.4. He was never used and Ohio State never uses their RBs as receivers, a concern? I play non PPR league so it concerns me less, he looked like he improved some last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a pretty good receiver, he's already downgraded from this aspect of his game, so it shouldn't really be considered a concern, it's a fact that could change for the better and turn into a plus.

 

[gregjcross]

Posted this in another thread and thought it might be worth breaking out into a new discussion:I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells. Adding for this thread: I don't see Hightower taking a huge number of carries away from Wells, and if he was strictly a third down pass-catching specialist, I wouldn't be as worried, but when you add in the fact that he's a trusted goal-line runner, I think he becomes more problematic for Wells.Any insight/projections? For those of you who are bullish on Wells, do you think there will be enough to go around for both of them or do you see Hightower's role being reduced?

Hightower (the "trusted goal line runner") in reality has back-up skills for the NFL concerning such things as possible pro bowls, breaking records i.e. leading the NFL in YPC. And if Beanie Wells displays bad work habits or fumbling problems early in camp, the two will share time infinitely. If Wells however proves clearly superior as many suspect he is , it would be obvious that the Cardinals use him much more frequently, as the main hub of their offense where Hightower simply spells him with some carries and catches but loses the goal line work.These Summer discussions (which often morph to arguments in the Shark Pool) are good to look back on come November, who was right, wrong or in between. For the time being, we can only base things on coach speak, measurables (or lack of measurables) and past recent history as you state above with the Cardinals personnel packages from 2008/'09 and Hightower's early role. But coming in impartial, via a recent trade for Wells, I have put my money on Hightower fading to the background this year.

 

[footballsavvy]

Wells should get the majority of carries far and away. He's a far superior pure runner. That being said, Hightower had 63 receptions last season and proved to be one of the leagues best receiving backs. Whisenhunt would be a fool not to use Hightower in passing situations.

The only problem with assuming that Airzona will shift into a ball control, run-first team is their defense - or lack thereof. They seemed to fall apart as the season went on and started getting gashed by the run...and the pass. Add in that they lost Dansby and Rolle in free agency and it gets dicey in a hurry. Unfortunately, teams that have a bad defense don't typically have the luxury of pounding the ball 500 times a season.

Wells will get early down work, but I think he will lose a lot of receptions to Hightower, and put up too many games where he has less than 15 touches. His upside is nice, but I don't think 2010 is going to be there year where he has a monster break out.

The previous thread was comparing Beanie with Greene and I have to give the nod to Green. Neither back will get many receptions, but Greene will probably have no problem seeing 250+ carries and will be running behind a superior offensive line. The Jets can keep games close with their dominant defense, thus allowing them not to have to abandon the run game... ever, really.

 

[Da Guru]

Wells is a beast at the goal line..last year he ran over guys and pushed the pile.

 

[renesauz]

In a pass first offense, Hightower absolutely limits Well's ceiling, because Timmy is a solid receiver and at least a competant runner.

But will the Cards continue to be a pass-first offense? I don't think so. I see them going to a more balanced approach...and in that approach Wells should be a solid fantasy back (low end #1) while Hightower will be a good handcuff or a nice RB3/flex option (in PPR leagues). Both will have decent value, but Hightower doesn't have a significant impact on Well's value in a balanced or run first offense.

 

[heidbrink]

I don't have any stats to back this up just my general impression of last season that Hightowers receptions were somewhat of a high outlier.

Especially at the beginning of the season last year Warner dumped the ball to Hightower in the backfield a lot...I mean a ton. I seem to recall games with close to 20 passes to Timmy toward the beginning of the year.

Warner, as I recall, was nursing some sort of injury and perhaps less than eager to step up into the pocket and take a hit. I think the number of passes to Hightower is sort of an outlier considering Warner's extreme tendency to quickly dump it to Timmy last year. With Warner gone the dynamic is completely different.

 

[DoubleG]

Wells should get the majority of carries far and away. He's a far superior pure runner. That being said, Hightower had 63 receptions last season and proved to be one of the leagues best receiving backs. Whisenhunt would be a fool not to use Hightower in passing situations.

Can we please hold off on calling him "one of the best receiving backs in the league" when he doesn't even have 100 career receptions yet? At the risk of repeating myself from the other thread, yes, Hightower was 2nd in the league in receptions in 2009, but he was also 2nd in the league in targets. Hightower was also 21st in catch % and 51st in yards/reception among RBs in 2009. Some of the top 10 RBs in Y/rec were in 2009 (that had at least 10 receptions) - were AP, CJ, Sproles, Mendy and Beanie Wells. ProfootballFocus also tracks YAC/rec - Hightower was 48th, while Wells was 19th. ProFootballFocus also "grades out" RBs in various aspects of their game. Hightower graded out as the 57th best receiving RB - Wells was 18th. Hightower fullfilled his role nicely, but Wells did as well if not better in that role. There is nothing statistically speaking, save for targets, that suggests that Hightower is better than Wells receiving out of the backfield. In fact many of the numbers indicate that Wisenhunt would be wise to get Beanie the ball via pass more than he does, given his excellent YAC/rec. and Y/rec. numbers.

Also, I do find it funny that people suggest that Wells' value takes a hit because of a poor QB, but THT, the alleged "pass catching stud", his value somehow is immune - when it seems to me that at least on some level, a pass cathing RB would be more reliant on decent throws and a pass-happy offense, not less.

 

[Tanner9919]

Posted this in another thread and thought it might be worth breaking out into a new discussion:I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells. Adding for this thread: I don't see Hightower taking a huge number of carries away from Wells, and if he was strictly a third down pass-catching specialist, I wouldn't be as worried, but when you add in the fact that he's a trusted goal-line runner, I think he becomes more problematic for Wells.Any insight/projections? For those of you who are bullish on Wells, do you think there will be enough to go around for both of them or do you see Hightower's role being reduced?

a few things scare me to death about Wells...1. injury-riddled past can return at any time2. Matt Leinartand,well, 3) loss of A. Boldin