Tim Tebow going forward? Where does he rank among QBs? (1 Viewer)

[Summer Wheat]

Hard to believe but Tim Tebow is putting up Mike Vick type of FF numbers. If Tebow plays a full season this guy will be a FF beast next year.

Any given day is at least 50 yards rushing and up to 100, 150 yards passing, a rushing TD and a passing TD and possibly more. The thing about Tebow is that inside the 5 he wants to run it in. I loved on the NFL Network when Tebow was miked. The ball was on the 7 and Tebow said "Only one person is carrying the ball" and ran it in.

WWTTD

 

[mquinnjr]

I definitely take him late round 2 if he's available still. Don't want to compromise my RB1, and he's a cheaper Vick. Take him in a heartbeat, if he doesn't work out, work the WW.

 

[lod01]

Lower end of middle tier. Needs paired with another QB that is better and play the matchups. Start him against poor run D's. Bench him against any team with good D coaching. A couple of times he was inches away from being destroyed yesterday while running around in circles. One of these days he will go one way turn around and a D-lineman or LB will plant him.

 

[todisco1]

Top 12ish? Not sure where to place him right now -- the guy was pretty impressive and if he improves his passing game his ceiling is top 3. Seems crazy to think that, and if I drafted him I'd want a solid backup in case he doesn't pan out, but the guy puts up points.

 

[Summer Wheat]

Lower end of middle tier. Needs paired with another QB that is better and play the matchups. Start him against poor run D's. Bench him against any team with good D coaching. A couple of times he was inches away from being destroyed yesterday while running around in circles. One of these days he will go one way turn around and a D-lineman or LB will plant him.

That happens to all the QBs who play this style. Vick has missed games twice this year already from being planted. Just need a decent backup with QBs like Tebow and Vick. The reward is well worth it.

 

[atl3695]

I definitely take him late round 2 if he's available still. Don't want to compromise my RB1, and he's a cheaper Vick. Take him in a heartbeat, if he doesn't work out, work the WW.

No way you take Tebow over Manning, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Brees, or Rodgers. I think QB's will go earlier than ever next year, but you should be able to get 1 of these guys in Round 2 or early 3. You gotta think Romo goes before him also. So earliest I see him going is qb #8.A lot of that depends of who is coach is next year. If they bring in an offensive minded coach (Gruden?), the Tebow hype train will put the Finley and Jahvid Best fanboys to shame. Still dont see him cracking top 6. After the top 6 you have solid options Romo, Schaub, Flacco, Freeman, Eli, Ryan, Big Ben who you could make an argument for taking ahead of Tebow. So I see him going between 7 to 14 in most leagues. I think he is a good option as a QBBC guy to pair with someone like Flacco, Ryan, or Big Ben with back to back picks around rounds 8-11.He definitely has the upside but can he keep up the rushing numbers? He is not an explosive runner like Vick so those yards may get harder to come by if his passing doesnt continue to develop. But he is a great option as a high upside qb#2.

 

[Zed Zero]

He only played 3 full games on the downhill side of a miserable season, and none of the opponents he faced made the playoffs (ie they weren't dominant teams). Add the coaching change and an inconsistent WR corps (with the exception of Lloyd) and I can't see taking him any higher than round ~5.

 

[Goldalene]

He's an interesting backup in a 12 teamer.

 

[az_prof]

It is hard to see him not getting the starting gig next season after what he has done. And if he is healthy, it is hard to not see him in top 5. So, I would say he will go somewhere in the QB5-8 range.

 

[Summer Wheat]

He's an interesting backup in a 12 teamer.

Do you have any openings in your league?

 

[atl3695]

He's an interesting backup in a 12 teamer.

Do you have any openings in your league?

Seems like you started this with your mind already made up about Tebow. Where would you take him (qb rank and round)?

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

He only played 3 full games on the downhill side of a miserable season, and none of the opponents he faced made the playoffs (ie they weren't dominant teams).

The Chargers had the #1 defense in football and he had a decent fantasy day against them.

 

[Summer Wheat]

He's an interesting backup in a 12 teamer.

Do you have any openings in your league?

Seems like you started this with your mind already made up about Tebow. Where would you take him (qb rank and round)?

High risk, but very high reward type of player. Still have not made my mind up but looking in the 7-8 QB range right now. Four straight weeks of production is tough to overlook. Tebow is like Vick, even his bad NFL games are good FF games.

 

[Sinn Fein]

He is definitely ahead of Finley now.

 

[JuniorNB]

He only played 3 full games on the downhill side of a miserable season, and none of the opponents he faced made the playoffs (ie they weren't dominant teams). Add the coaching change and an inconsistent WR corps (with the exception of Lloyd) and I can't see taking him any higher than round ~5.

Tha Chargers are very good 'non-playoff' team. Certainly head and shoulders above a team like Seattle.I agree that he wouldn't have put those numbers up against a Pittsburgh or Baltimore, but either do the other quarterbacks you'd be considering at that point. For fantasy owners, getting those red zome running touchdowns is gold. Tebow has fullback size and strength and will score goalline TDs even when he has off days passing. I don't think he'll be more valuable than P. Manning, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers, or Vick, but he has as good of a chance at being next on that list as anyone else I can think of.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just for the heck of it, Tebow's 3 games this year project out to...

3500 yards passing, 26 pass TDs

1000 yards rushing, 16 rush TDs

If I'm not mistaken, that would be the best fantasy season of all-time.

Of course, projecting out stats from 3 games means absolutely nothing (even though people have no problem doing the same thing when talking about "clutchness"), but it's still pretty impressive given that those 3 games were the first 3 starts of his career, in an awful situation (look at Orton's stats after McDaniels left...yikes), and with the highest scoring of those games coming against the top YA defense in the league.

Can anyone sit here and tell me that if someone this board loved ahead of time, like Matt Stafford, had started his career that way that he wouldn't be the consensus #2 dynasty QB on these forums right now?

 

[leggman01]

first off, i tried the search function to see if this topic had been covered, and the search function doesn't seem to be working...if this has been covered, please feel free to delete this post

second - does tim tebow have low level fantasy starter value going into next season?

in our league (scoring in signature), he went for 24 pts, 22 pts, and 27 pts over the last three weeks...that's averaging 24.3 ppg - to put that in perspective, vick averaged 26.2 ppg in the 12 games he played and rodgers was the 2nd leading scorer in our league at 19.3 ppg in 15 games - i know it's just a really small 3 game sample, but could tebow be a guy that averages 15 to 17 ppg?

If so, he's a low-end starter in a 12 team league

share your thoughts...

 

[Summer Wheat]

Just for the heck of it, Tebow's 3 games this year project out to...3500 yards passing, 26 pass TDs1000 yards rushing, 16 rush TDsIf I'm not mistaken, that would be the best fantasy season of all-time.Of course, projecting out stats from 3 games means absolutely nothing (even though people have no problem doing the same thing when talking about "clutchness"), but it's still pretty impressive given that those 3 games were the first 3 starts of his career, in an awful situation (look at Orton's stats after McDaniels left...yikes), and with the highest scoring of those games coming against the top YA defense in the league.

The rushing TDs are pure gold.

 

[steelcityman]

after all the big names go next year he will be on my radar, Big Ben and Tebow and I'll win the damn league.

 

[twistd]

I'm very curious to see how he performs when teams start game planning for him. He has played well so far, but I'm not a believer. I doubt he will be on any of my fantasy teams. Just as Vick probably won't either. I believe in Vick, but I suspect he easily goes first round in a lot of leagues. I don't think I'm prepared to make that investment.

 

[faulkfan]

We don't know if he is a starter and we don't know who his coach will be. It seems pretty difficult to start to assign a value to him until those things are cleared up.

That said, if he is a starter I would put him inside the top 15 on his running ability alone.

 

[atl3695]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=579565

 

[The Moz]

Tebow will likley get you maybe 3300 yards passing and maybe 18-22 TD's in the air and likely 500 - 600 yds rush and 8-12 rush TD's as I venture to guess he will vulture many shorties.

Depending on your scoring he is anywhere from a top 15 to a top 6.

IMO Tebow is a slower Vince Young but with 100X the heart and drive to improve and lead.

 

[charlatan]

The sense I get here in Denver is this;

Whoever we hire on as coach(es), Defense looks to be the target for much of the draft and beyond. We might even wind up with a defensive coach. That said, with the exception of possibly an O lineman or two, you're seeing what's going to be in place next year.

The running game, no matter who comes in, will become much more important next year. Elway (new VP of football Ops) won with a fullback and Terrell Davis, so I can guarantee you he's going to try to go that route. I don't think the run game is going to improve a lot next year because of the defensive woes, which means it's going to be Tebow reading defenses... and that is going to lead to trouble.

Honestly, he's competitive enough to probably get you 8 or so rushing TD's, but I bet he's in the middle of the pack interception wise, maybe lower. Accuracy is going to be the focus in the off season, so maybe he does better than I think.

I hope he does well, but I think next year is going to be less than stellar.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards, 1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

 

[thehornet]

and then he got benched

 

[Concept Coop]

and then he got benched

I don't know how much risk there is for that. Tebow has looked good and the Broncos aren't going anywhere right away. I think he will be allowed to grow and make mistakes.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards,1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

225 ypg x 16 games = 3600 yards, enough to put him in the top ten of the NFL for the 2010 season. That's more than Sam Bradford, and only 100 yards short of Tom Brady.1.6 TDpg x 16 games = 25.6 TDs, again in the top ten. That's only 2.4 less than Aaron Rodgers had this season.

Given that he is, at the moment, one of the least accurate passers I've ever seen start a game in the NFL, you should probably adjust those projections way, way down for your analysis.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Given that he is, at the moment, one of the least accurate passers I've ever seen start a game in the NFL, you should probably adjust those projections way, way down for your analysis.

This isn't a Skelton thread.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards,1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

225 ypg x 16 games = 3600 yards, enough to put him in the top ten of the NFL for the 2010 season. That's more than Sam Bradford, and only 100 yards short of Tom Brady.1.6 TDpg x 16 games = 25.6 TDs, again in the top ten. That's only 2.4 less than Aaron Rodgers had this season.

Given that he is, at the moment, one of the least accurate passers I've ever seen start a game in the NFL, you should probably adjust those projections way, way down for your analysis.

Those are his passing stats over his 3 games. I see you are impressed. 225 YPG is not top 10. You are using total, which does not take into account injury or suspension.

Also, you are asking me to lower is passing totals, without acknowledging that the rushing totals are very conservative. Regardless of how you want to allocate the points, he has a very good potential to be putting up fantasy points at a top 5 rate.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards,1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

225 ypg x 16 games = 3600 yards, enough to put him in the top ten of the NFL for the 2010 season. That's more than Sam Bradford, and only 100 yards short of Tom Brady.1.6 TDpg x 16 games = 25.6 TDs, again in the top ten. That's only 2.4 less than Aaron Rodgers had this season.

Given that he is, at the moment, one of the least accurate passers I've ever seen start a game in the NFL, you should probably adjust those projections way, way down for your analysis.

Those are his passing stats over his 3 games. I see you are impressed. 225 YPG is not top 10. You are using total, which does not take into account injury or suspension.

Also, you are asking me to lower is passing totals, without acknowledging that the rushing totals are very conservative. Regardless of how you want to allocate the points, he has a very good potential to be putting up fantasy points at a top 5 rate.

Extrapolating three-game totals to predict performance over an entire season is not a good fantasy football strategy, nor is it a good way to predict performance generally. Especially if it's the last three games of the season. Unless you expect Rex Grossman to throw for 5000 yards and 38 TDs next season?By the way, I agree with you that he has potential to put up fantasy points at a top 5 rate because of his rushing potential. But he's a truly awful passer, and predicting consistent passing numbers like that from a guy as inaccurate as he is seems like a bit much to me..

 

[az_prof]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards,1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

225 ypg x 16 games = 3600 yards, enough to put him in the top ten of the NFL for the 2010 season. That's more than Sam Bradford, and only 100 yards short of Tom Brady.1.6 TDpg x 16 games = 25.6 TDs, again in the top ten. That's only 2.4 less than Aaron Rodgers had this season.

Given that he is, at the moment, one of the least accurate passers I've ever seen start a game in the NFL, you should probably adjust those projections way, way down for your analysis.

Those are his passing stats over his 3 games. I see you are impressed. 225 YPG is not top 10. You are using total, which does not take into account injury or suspension.

Also, you are asking me to lower is passing totals, without acknowledging that the rushing totals are very conservative. Regardless of how you want to allocate the points, he has a very good potential to be putting up fantasy points at a top 5 rate.

Extrapolating three-game totals to predict performance over an entire season is not a good fantasy football strategy, nor is it a good way to predict performance generally. Especially if it's the last three games of the season. Unless you expect Rex Grossman to throw for 5000 yards and 38 TDs next season?By the way, I agree with you that he has potential to put up fantasy points at a top 5 rate because of his rushing potential. But he's a truly awful passer, and predicting consistent passing numbers like that from a guy as inaccurate as he is seems like a bit much to me..

Extrapolating from three games generally is not a good idea, but in this case, it is justified. First, do you think he won't continue to run and be effective running? Why? He has shown that he can run on NFL defenses and I don't see why that will change. If he is an average or even less than average NFL passing QB, but he runs the way he has, then he will be a top 6 fantasy QB.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards,1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

225 ypg x 16 games = 3600 yards, enough to put him in the top ten of the NFL for the 2010 season. That's more than Sam Bradford, and only 100 yards short of Tom Brady.1.6 TDpg x 16 games = 25.6 TDs, again in the top ten. That's only 2.4 less than Aaron Rodgers had this season.

Given that he is, at the moment, one of the least accurate passers I've ever seen start a game in the NFL, you should probably adjust those projections way, way down for your analysis.

Those are his passing stats over his 3 games. I see you are impressed. 225 YPG is not top 10. You are using total, which does not take into account injury or suspension.

Also, you are asking me to lower is passing totals, without acknowledging that the rushing totals are very conservative. Regardless of how you want to allocate the points, he has a very good potential to be putting up fantasy points at a top 5 rate.

Extrapolating three-game totals to predict performance over an entire season is not a good fantasy football strategy, nor is it a good way to predict performance generally. Especially if it's the last three games of the season. Unless you expect Rex Grossman to throw for 5000 yards and 38 TDs next season?By the way, I agree with you that he has potential to put up fantasy points at a top 5 rate because of his rushing potential. But he's a truly awful passer, and predicting consistent passing numbers like that from a guy as inaccurate as he is seems like a bit much to me..

Extrapolating from three games generally is not a good idea, but in this case, it is justified. First, do you think he won't continue to run and be effective running? Why? He has shown that he can run on NFL defenses and I don't see why that will change. If he is an average or even less than average NFL passing QB, but he runs the way he has, then he will be a top 6 fantasy QB.

If you read the last half of my post, you'll see that I totally agree with you regarding his fantasy value. I only disagreed- strongly- with the passing projections. You can't simply say extrapolating was "justified" without explaining yourself. Why is it OK to project Tebow to continue to throw for 225 yds and 1.6 TDs, but not to expect Grossman to go for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs? You're looking at the same data set over the same time frame. You say "if he is an average of even less than average NFL passing QB ..." what evidence do we really have to suggest that he'd be anywhere close to average? He completed 50% of his passes. I didn't watch every play he made, but I don't remember seeing a single impressive throw. And virtually all NFL personnel executives agree wit h me on that.

In time he might be a below average to average passing QB, in which case he'd be a fantasy superstar. Heck, even now he's a potential fantasy star simply for his two-way value, much like Vick early in his career. But projecting him as a top ten passer is absurd.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

You guys do realize that Peyton Manning, who will go down as one of the greatest pocket passers of all time, threw for 3700 yards in his first year right? Now you are suggesting to me that Tebow is going to throw for 3600 yards next year?

You also realize that Micheal Vick, who will go down as one of the greatest rushing QBs of all time, rushed for 777 yards and 8 TDs his first year of starting. You are projecting Tebow to get 2/3's of those numbers?

So in summation, next year Tebow is going to nearly match Mannings first year as a passing QB, and get 2/3 of Vick's numbers as a rushing QB. Got it.

I think 2400/14 passing and 375/4 rushing is much more likely, and that's if he starts all year. He'd better start completing more than 50% of his passes too, or he won't have a job for long in the NFL.

 

[Summer Wheat]

You guys do realize that Peyton Manning, who will go down as one of the greatest pocket passers of all time, threw for 3700 yards in his first year right? Now you are suggesting to me that Tebow is going to throw for 3600 yards next year? You also realize that Micheal Vick, who will go down as one of the greatest rushing QBs of all time, rushed for 777 yards and 8 TDs his first year of starting. You are projecting Tebow to get 2/3's of those numbers?So in summation, next year Tebow is going to nearly match Mannings first year as a passing QB, and get 2/3 of Vick's numbers as a rushing QB. Got it.I think 2400/14 passing and 375/4 rushing is much more likely, and that's if he starts all year. He'd better start completing more than 50% of his passes too, or he won't have a job for long in the NFL.

If Tebow plays 16 games there is no way he only rushes for 375 yards. Tebow is a running QB and always will be..he loves to run and has stated that on a number of occasions. 6-700 rushing and at least 6-7 rushing TDs. The rushing numbers are a lock, it is the passing numbers that I am not sure of.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

You guys do realize that Peyton Manning, who will go down as one of the greatest pocket passers of all time, threw for 3700 yards in his first year right? Now you are suggesting to me that Tebow is going to throw for 3600 yards next year? You also realize that Micheal Vick, who will go down as one of the greatest rushing QBs of all time, rushed for 777 yards and 8 TDs his first year of starting. You are projecting Tebow to get 2/3's of those numbers?So in summation, next year Tebow is going to nearly match Mannings first year as a passing QB, and get 2/3 of Vick's numbers as a rushing QB. Got it.I think 2400/14 passing and 375/4 rushing is much more likely, and that's if he starts all year. He'd better start completing more than 50% of his passes too, or he won't have a job for long in the NFL.

If Tebow plays 16 games there is no way he only rushes for 375 yards. Tebow is a running QB and always will be..he loves to run and has stated that on a number of occasions. 6-700 rushing and at least 6-7 rushing TDs. The rushing numbers are a lock, it is the passing numbers that I am not sure of.

Its one thing to run over defenses that have gone through a season's worth of attrition. Tebow came in with fresh legs against defenses that had already played nearly a full season's worth of snaps. No defense is going to respect the pass until he starts completing more than 50%, (and really over 60%) of his passes. Now place him vs any defense week 1 set to stop him from running it. Good luck. This isn't college ball.Here's the QBs that have rushed for over 600 yards in a season and the number of times.Mike Vick 4 (1039, 902, 777, 676)Randall Cunningham 3. (624, 621, 924)Donovan McNabb 1 (679)Steve McNair 1 (674)Some of the greatest rushing QBs of all time that never accomplished 600 yards.Steve YoungFran TarkentonJim ZornDoug FlutieVince Young

 

[Concept Coop]

Its one thing to run over defenses that have gone through a season's worth of attrition. Tebow came in with fresh legs against defenses that had already played nearly a full season's worth of snaps. No defense is going to respect the pass until he starts completing more than 50%, (and really over 60%) of his passes. Now place him vs any defense week 1 set to stop him from running it. Good luck. This isn't college ball.Here's the QBs that have rushed for over 600 yards in a season and the number of times.Mike Vick 4 (1039, 902, 777, 676)Randall Cunningham 3. (624, 621, 924)Donovan McNabb 1 (679)Steve McNair 1 (674)Some of the greatest rushing QBs of all time that never accomplished 600 yards.Steve YoungFran TarkentonJim ZornDoug FlutieVince Young

Steve Young? Fran Tarkenton? Jim Zorn? Doug Flutie...WHAT?!Tim Tebow is a different beast. He offers the potential to be a teams red zone/short yardage back, AS WELL as do the things that the guys on the bottom of the list did: scrambling for first downs when the pocket breaks. Tebow is clearly on another level than the McNabbs and McNairs (running the ball). They are not guys whose teams called on them to run the ball 10+ times a game. There is a difference between a guy being able to escape pressure and another who is built to take hits and move the pile on a regular basis. Granted, we don't know if Tebow can keep this up. We don't know if he can take the hits for complete seasons, let alone year after year. But he offers more potential to do so than any QB I recall seeing in the NFL. Also, we know this isn't college ball and teams didn't respect his ability to pass and look what happened. Granted, it is only 3 games, but lets not pretend like teams didn't know what Tebow was about when they took the field.

 

[Summer Wheat]

Its one thing to run over defenses that have gone through a season's worth of attrition. Tebow came in with fresh legs against defenses that had already played nearly a full season's worth of snaps. No defense is going to respect the pass until he starts completing more than 50%, (and really over 60%) of his passes. Now place him vs any defense week 1 set to stop him from running it. Good luck. This isn't college ball.Here's the QBs that have rushed for over 600 yards in a season and the number of times.Mike Vick 4 (1039, 902, 777, 676)Randall Cunningham 3. (624, 621, 924)Donovan McNabb 1 (679)Steve McNair 1 (674)Some of the greatest rushing QBs of all time that never accomplished 600 yards.Steve YoungFran TarkentonJim ZornDoug FlutieVince Young

Steve Young? Fran Tarkenton? Jim Zorn? Doug Flutie...WHAT?!Tim Tebow is a different beast. He offers the potential to be a teams red zone/short yardage back, AS WELL as do the things that the guys on the bottom of the list did: scrambling for first downs when the pocket breaks. Tebow is clearly on another level than the McNabbs and McNairs (running the ball). They are not guys whose teams called on them to run the ball 10+ times a game. There is a difference between a guy being able to escape pressure and another who is built to take hits and move the pile on a regular basis. Granted, we don't know if Tebow can keep this up. We don't know if he can take the hits for complete seasons, let alone year after year. But he offers more potential to do so than any QB I recall seeing in the NFL. Also, we know this isn't college ball and teams didn't respect his ability to pass and look what happened. Granted, it is only 10 games, but lets not pretend like teams didn't know what Tebow was about when they took the field.

Plus 600 yards is only 37.5 yards a game. It is much easier for running QBs to gain big chunks of yards than RBs. All the WRs going deep and Tebow can pick up big chunks of yardage.

 

[David Yudkin]

DEN needs a new coach. Whoever the coach will be did not draft Tebow. Until we know whether Tebow is going to be the new coach's guy, this is premature.

THE LAST THING I would be doing right not is extrapolating what Tebow's numbers might be based on a few games this year. Whatever people come up with from that will be greatly inflating his value. A QB is not going to project out to 40+ TDs and then hit that.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

If you project Jerome Simpson's two games without Ochocinco & Owens, then he's going to go for 144-1,976-24 next year. Definitely the WR1.

 

[az_prof]

If you read the last half of my post, you'll see that I totally agree with you regarding his fantasy value. I only disagreed- strongly- with the passing projections. You can't simply say extrapolating was "justified" without explaining yourself. Why is it OK to project Tebow to continue to throw for 225 yds and 1.6 TDs, but not to expect Grossman to go for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs? You're looking at the same data set over the same time frame.

You say "if he is an average of even less than average NFL passing QB ..." what evidence do we really have to suggest that he'd be anywhere close to average? He completed 50% of his passes. I didn't watch every play he made, but I don't remember seeing a single impressive throw. And virtually all NFL personnel executives agree wit h me on that.

In time he might be a below average to average passing QB, in which case he'd be a fantasy superstar. Heck, even now he's a potential fantasy star simply for his two-way value, much like Vick early in his career. But projecting him as a top ten passer is absurd.

You ask what evidence that he is "anywhere close to average" as a passer? But you didn't watch him play? Well, you could start by watching the film of his three games. I did and based on what I saw he is at this time an average NFL passer. The preseason talk is at this time--way out of date and discredited. You say "virtually all NFL personnel executives agree with me on that." What evidence do you have that virtually "all" agree? There are 32 teams so you are saying that 29 or 30 active NFL GMs are on record saying Tebow can't throw? I remember hearing some talking heads who aren't good enough to be NFL GMs say that, but not too many active ones.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0900...fney-50-yd-pass

 

[Summer Wheat]

DEN needs a new coach. Whoever the coach will be did not draft Tebow. Until we know whether Tebow is going to be the new coach's guy, this is premature.THE LAST THING I would be doing right not is extrapolating what Tebow's numbers might be based on a few games this year. Whatever people come up with from that will be greatly inflating his value. A QB is not going to project out to 40+ TDs and then hit that.

I don`t think anyone is projecting those kinds of numbers. With Tebows style of play though he like Mike Vick racks up FF points even when he is not playing well team wise.Of course we are also assuming the new coach is in Tebows corner as well.

 

[Concept Coop]

If you project Jerome Simpson's two games without Ochocinco & Owens, then he's going to go for 144-1,976-24 next year. Definitely the WR1.

I am confused as to whom you are mocking. I don't recall anyone claiming Tebow would keep those numbers up. If he did, he would the best fantasy QB since Brady in 07, and I don't see anyone suggesting that.Edit: Also, you suggest Tim looked uncharacteristically good, as Simpson did. Tebow left plenty of room for improvement and put up great numbers while simply looking like a competant NFL QB.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

If you project Jerome Simpson's two games without Ochocinco & Owens, then he's going to go for 144-1,976-24 next year. Definitely the WR1.

I am confused as to whom you are mocking. I don't recall anyone claiming Tebow would keep those numbers up. If he did, he would the best fantasy QB since Brady in 07, and I don't see anyone suggesting that.Edit: Also, you suggest Tim looked uncharacteristically good, as Simpson did. Tebow left plenty of room for improvement and put up great numbers while simply looking like a competant NFL QB.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=579565

 

[Concept Coop]

If you project Jerome Simpson's two games without Ochocinco & Owens, then he's going to go for 144-1,976-24 next year. Definitely the WR1.

I am confused as to whom you are mocking. I don't recall anyone claiming Tebow would keep those numbers up. If he did, he would the best fantasy QB since Brady in 07, and I don't see anyone suggesting that.Edit: Also, you suggest Tim looked uncharacteristically good, as Simpson did. Tebow left plenty of room for improvement and put up great numbers while simply looking like a competant NFL QB.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=579565

This is all I found:

Just for the heck of it, Tebow's 3 games this year project out to...

3500 yards passing, 26 pass TDs

1000 yards rushing, 16 rush TDs

If I'm not mistaken, that would be the best fantasy season of all-time.

Of course, projecting out stats from 3 games means absolutely nothing (even though people have no problem doing the same thing when talking about "clutchness").

 

[TobiasFunke]

If you read the last half of my post, you'll see that I totally agree with you regarding his fantasy value. I only disagreed- strongly- with the passing projections. You can't simply say extrapolating was "justified" without explaining yourself. Why is it OK to project Tebow to continue to throw for 225 yds and 1.6 TDs, but not to expect Grossman to go for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs? You're looking at the same data set over the same time frame.

You say "if he is an average of even less than average NFL passing QB ..." what evidence do we really have to suggest that he'd be anywhere close to average? He completed 50% of his passes. I didn't watch every play he made, but I don't remember seeing a single impressive throw. And virtually all NFL personnel executives agree wit h me on that.

In time he might be a below average to average passing QB, in which case he'd be a fantasy superstar. Heck, even now he's a potential fantasy star simply for his two-way value, much like Vick early in his career. But projecting him as a top ten passer is absurd.

You ask what evidence that he is "anywhere close to average" as a passer? But you didn't watch him play? Well, you could start by watching the film of his three games. I did and based on what I saw he is at this time an average NFL passer. The preseason talk is at this time--way out of date and discredited. You say "virtually all NFL personnel executives agree with me on that." What evidence do you have that virtually "all" agree? There are 32 teams so you are saying that 29 or 30 active NFL GMs are on record saying Tebow can't throw? I remember hearing some talking heads who aren't good enough to be NFL GMs say that, but not too many active ones.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0900...fney-50-yd-pass

I watched him play. I just didn't watch every snap, and thought I should admit as much.You watched every play and you saw an average NFL passer? You do realize that he completed only 50% of his passes, right? Or do you think that's average?

You gave us one link- one from three games- and it's far from a great pass. Gaffney beat the defenders deep- a good pass there results in a TD. Tebow forced him to slow up and drift right and off-balance. It's a fine pass- certainly nothing "bad" about it it- but it's hardly spectacular. If that's your best evidence of his passing ability from over 80 pass attempts, he may be even worse than I'm giving him credit for.

 

[Two Deep]

He'll be ok for about 8 games and then he will be nursing his battered rib cage. Oh yeah and he'll have more passing Int's than Td's

 

[Concept Coop]

He'll be ok for about 8 games and then he will be nursing his battered rib cage. Oh yeah and he'll have more passing Int's than Td's

Just like Florida couldn't keep putting the ball in his hands in the SEC after Leak left? People didn't think he could be the main back and QB in the SEC and he was, brilliantly.I am not saying he won't get hurt, but I am not confident in saying he will. He is built unlike any QB I can remember. I would gladly take the over on number of games played in a row if it is 8.5 for 2011.Edit: I would also gladly take the over on number of TDs thrown more than INTs if it is 0.5.

 

[atl3695]

I am making this thread to point out the un-real potential Tim Tebow has in fantasy football. Please know that I am not suggesting that Tebow is the best QB ever, or even that he will be an above average NFL QB. Fantasy purposes only.

But, Tim Tebow, in 3 games averaged more points per game than a hypothetical "best season ever".

Tim Tebow averaged about 25 points, depending on the scoring system, in three games.

300 yards 3 TDs/0 INTs = 24 points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but even if we assume teams "figure out" Tebow and we lower his rushing points per game to 6 (30 yards, 0.5 TDs), that is still enough to keep Tebow among the elite with very pedestrian passing stats. And I would gladly take the over on 480 rushing yards next season.

Hypothetical Tebow PPG Stats:

Passing: 225 yards, 1.6 TDs, 1.0 INTs = 16.6

Rushing: 30 yards, 0.5 TDs = 6

Total = 22.6 (more than Phillip Rivers)

This is startling and not talked about nearly enough in the Shark Pool. Not only should Tebow be a QB1, I think he should be top 5 in re-draft formats next season.

A lot of that depends of who is coach is next year. If they bring in an offensive minded coach (Gruden?), the Tebow hype train will put the Finley and Jahvid Best fanboys to shame.

And so it begins! Doubt I will have Tebow on any of my teams next year as someone will probably pull the trigger in the first 5 rounds.

 

[todisco1]

If you read the last half of my post, you'll see that I totally agree with you regarding his fantasy value. I only disagreed- strongly- with the passing projections. You can't simply say extrapolating was "justified" without explaining yourself. Why is it OK to project Tebow to continue to throw for 225 yds and 1.6 TDs, but not to expect Grossman to go for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs? You're looking at the same data set over the same time frame.

You say "if he is an average of even less than average NFL passing QB ..." what evidence do we really have to suggest that he'd be anywhere close to average? He completed 50% of his passes. I didn't watch every play he made, but I don't remember seeing a single impressive throw. And virtually all NFL personnel executives agree wit h me on that.

In time he might be a below average to average passing QB, in which case he'd be a fantasy superstar. Heck, even now he's a potential fantasy star simply for his two-way value, much like Vick early in his career. But projecting him as a top ten passer is absurd.

You ask what evidence that he is "anywhere close to average" as a passer? But you didn't watch him play? Well, you could start by watching the film of his three games. I did and based on what I saw he is at this time an average NFL passer. The preseason talk is at this time--way out of date and discredited. You say "virtually all NFL personnel executives agree with me on that." What evidence do you have that virtually "all" agree? There are 32 teams so you are saying that 29 or 30 active NFL GMs are on record saying Tebow can't throw? I remember hearing some talking heads who aren't good enough to be NFL GMs say that, but not too many active ones.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0900...fney-50-yd-pass

I watched him play. I just didn't watch every snap, and thought I should admit as much.You watched every play and you saw an average NFL passer? You do realize that he completed only 50% of his passes, right? Or do you think that's average?

You gave us one link- one from three games- and it's far from a great pass. Gaffney beat the defenders deep- a good pass there results in a TD. Tebow forced him to slow up and drift right and off-balance. It's a fine pass- certainly nothing "bad" about it it- but it's hardly spectacular. If that's your best evidence of his passing ability from over 80 pass attempts, he may be even worse than I'm giving him credit for.

He's also a rookie who has started 3 games. Not sure how anyone can dismiss him as below average after 3 games. I think for being considered so raw he did extremely well in his first action. And he should improve.