Time of Possession: Offensive Unit (1 Viewer)

[texasbirdfan]

I am convinced I could gain more insight if I knew what a players time of possession was each season or even each week without having to go back and look in the dusty files of NFL stats.

How many times have you guys sat up late on a Sunday Night Football game or Monday Night Football and calculated how many points you needed to win a game by the guys playing or worse what your opponent needed to beat you by the number of possessions left in the game?

To me the amount of chances a team has to operate increases the chance for fantasy points. To get more specific let's take a team like the offense of the Bills. Were they just out on the field less last year? I know my Falcons defense had the worst 3rd down breakdowns of all 32 teams last year and had trouble getting other teams off the field. That translated into less yards for Gonzo, Turner, Snelling, White, Ryan, etc. just by having less chances to play before the clock ran to zero in the 4th. With an accepted theory of Atlanta's probable 2010 improvement on defense, does that not give the Falcon players a bump up in chances at yards? Wasn't the Saints offense last year prolific in numbers of points not just by the D, but also because they had more chances because of the D?.

I am just looking for that stat to help explain or confound my suspicions. How about it Football Guys, any math geeks out their with a worthy equation?

 

[kutta]

Here's the time of possession rankings from last year.

1 Minnesota (0-0) 32:47:002 Green Bay (0-0) 32:46:003 New England (0-0) 32:45:004 Dallas (0-0) 32:26:005 Pittsburgh (0-0) 31:58:006 Miami (0-0) 31:55:007 Houston (0-0) 31:53:008 Cincinnati (0-0) 31:38:009 NY Jets (0-0) 31:36:0010 NY Giants (0-0) 31:25:0011 New Orleans (0-0) 31:03:0012 Carolina (0-0) 30:12:0013 Jacksonville (0-0) 29:54:0014 Atlanta (0-0) 29:53:0015 Denver (0-0) 29:53:0016 San Diego (0-0) 29:52:0017 San Francisco (0-0) 29:46:0018 Arizona (0-0) 29:36:0019 Baltimore (0-0) 29:18:0020 St Louis (0-0) 29:10:0021 Detroit (0-0) 28:56:0022 Washington (0-0) 28:56:0023 Tennessee (0-0) 28:33:0024 Cleveland (0-0) 28:31:0025 Chicago (0-0) 28:22:0026 Indianapolis (0-0) 28:18:0027 Tampa Bay (0-0) 28:17:0028 Oakland (0-0) 28:17:0029 Buffalo (0-0) 27:49:0030 Philadelphia (0-0) 27:46:0031 Kansas City (0-0) 27:41:0032 Seattle (0-0) 27:30:00

It does look like, in general, good teams have higher times of possession. But there were some very good fantasy producers out of the bottom part of the scale too. But given the choice of drafting players from the top half or the bottom half, give me the top half any day. One kind of weird thing popping out at me is that the teams in the bottom half appear to only have one very good fantasy producer, while teams in the top half seem to have more than one.It would be interesting to do a more in-depth study, but I'm lazy and not super bright.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I'm surprised Baltimore is in the bottom half of the league and Indy in the bottom 1/3.

A lot of times these explosive players like Chris Johnson score on a long play and they don't use up the clock. Chris Johnson had over 2000 yards and he was in the bottom 1/3 of possessions too.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It seems like you want to look at # of possessions, not time of possession.

 

[LittlePhatty]

It seems like you want to look at # of possessions, not time of possession.

I don't know. Seems like you could rack up a lot of 3-and-punts if both your offense and defense sucks.I bet time of possession says more about having a good defense plus a balanced run/pass offense. Indy is low because they pass the most.

 

[Genghis Khan]

It seems like you want to look at # of possessions, not time of possession.

I don't know. Seems like you could rack up a lot of 3-and-punts if both your offense and defense sucks.I bet time of possession says more about having a good defense plus a balanced run/pass offense. Indy is low because they pass the most.

Actually, both team get an equal number of possessions in a game (+ or -1). Over the season, I am not sure there is too much differentiation, or what it really means.Time of possession seems to me one of those relatively meaningless statistics; generally, more a result of a team winning than a cause of it.

 

[Bob Henry]

It seems like you want to look at # of possessions, not time of possession.

It would be interesting to look at a few different metrics around offensive possessions. I think you may be onto something, Chase. I wonder if there is more of a correlation to any of the following:Average yards per possessionAverage plays per possessionAverage points per possessionOr, using standard FBG scoring, fantasy points per possession.

 

[Faust]

Also, how much does last year's time of possession translate over to the following season? Looking at last year's numbers is fine, but past performance may not guarantee future results, correct?

How much variance is there from year to year?

 

[renesauz]

TOP is interesting, but ultimately, it MISLEADS you almost as often as it answers questions. FOr instance, sometimes your defense is so bad the other team scores quickly, or you turn the ball over repeatedly on your own side of the field. Both of those things lead to "good" TOP...but meaningless TOP.

Meaningless stat for fantasy purposes.