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Time to sell high on Megatron? (1 Viewer)

K

kens522

Footballguy
So Calvin Johnson had 154 yards receiving and a TD this week against a weak Houston defense. Look closer and you'll see that he only had two catches in the game:

1.) A 58-yard Hail Mary at the end of the first half that did nothing but pad stats.

2.) A broken-coverage 96-yard touchdown in the second half.

You have an awful QB situation there in Detroit with Orlovsky and Stanton. You have NO other weapons so defenses can double Megatron. So it's time to deal him.

Question is, how low do you go for him?

Clearly, you'd deal him for a Top 6 receiver (Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, S. Smith, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson). Personally, I'd hesitate to trade him for Owens or R. Moss, with their QB issues. I'd gladly trade him for Burress.

The question is, would you trade him for Boldin? He's coming back soon, into a powerful offense, and his owners may be undervaluing him because of the injury.

Do you come out on top in a Megatron for Boldin trade?

I think so. What do you think? Cecil, Bloom, rest of the Footballguys, weigh in on this...

Ken

 
Does a great QB make a great WR (e.g. Brady and Moss), or does a great WR make a great QB (e.g. Moss and Culpepper)?

I think CJ has the talent to be one of the greatest. Right now is the only time you can still get him for a reasonable price, so do it now before it's too late.

 
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kens522 said:
So Calvin Johnson had 154 yards receiving and a TD this week against a weak Houston defense. Look closer and you'll see that he only had two catches in the game:

1.) A 58-yard Hail Mary at the end of the first half that did nothing but pad stats.

2.) A broken-coverage 96-yard touchdown in the second half.

You have an awful QB situation there in Detroit with Orlovsky and Stanton. You have NO other weapons so defenses can double Megatron. So it's time to deal him.

Question is, how low do you go for him?

Clearly, you'd deal him for a Top 6 receiver (Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, S. Smith, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson). Personally, I'd hesitate to trade him for Owens or R. Moss, with their QB issues. I'd gladly trade him for Burress.

The question is, would you trade him for Boldin? He's coming back soon, into a powerful offense, and his owners may be undervaluing him because of the injury.

Do you come out on top in a Megatron for Boldin trade?

I think so. What do you think? Cecil, Bloom, rest of the Footballguys, weigh in on this...

Ken
Click to expand...
FYI.. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...0&hl=Calvin
 
CJ is as talented a WR there is in football. That being said I would sell high in a redraft league right now!

 
kens522 said:
But would you trade Calvin for Boldin in a redraft right now?
Click to expand...
I would do that in a heartbeat if I knew Boldin was healthy. I wouldn't do it today though. I'm not sure how Bolding will fare the rest of the season after that hit..
 
I didnt see the TD play, but the first catch it was obvious the defense pretty much let him have it and didnt even jump up with him so that they could be sure they made the tackle

 
Yitbos69 said:
I would buy high on Calvin right now in redraft or dynasty
Click to expand...
In redraft I'd atually sell high. When AJ was getting 8-12 balls on a crappy team, that's one thing. But 2-3 catches for Calvin? The team has quit, seems like no one cares except Calvin. He was on his way to an awful fantasy day most of the 1/2 half. He will be double and triple covered the rest of the season. Who else is there to stop?He'll be boom and bust the rest of the way. Lame duck coach, awful QB, horrible o-line. He'll still get his in the end, but I believe it will be very up and down. Obviously I'd start him, but I wouldn't feel good about what I'm going to get on a weekly basis. If you can go get a Fitz guy in a package deal, he's a huge upgrade redraft wise over Calvin. Even SS will kill Calvin the rest of the way. Dynasty, I still think he's a buy. The kid is special, and will be for 7-8-9 years. In PPR, he's money in the bank.
 
Aren't most big play TDs the result of some kind of blown coverage.

I never understood the 'if you take those plays away he had a mediocre day'. From what I see those plays counted in the box scores.

I'm just sayin.

 
blue&silver said:
Aren't most big play TDs the result of some kind of blown coverage. I never understood the 'if you take those plays away he had a mediocre day'. From what I see those plays counted in the box scores.I'm just sayin.
Click to expand...
I generally agree with this, but in some instances the argument holds water. If a guy isn't getting regular opportunities, it's tougher for him to continue putting up big numbers. If Calvin is only catching two passes a week, they HAVE to be 50+ yard receptions in order to be valuable to owners. And the likelihood of anyone catching two bombs on a week-in, week-out basis is extremely small.That said, I think with the way Furrey performed he and McDonald can take enough pressure off (and the Lions will usually be losing by enough) for Calvin to pile up garbage time yards in addition to the occasional bomb or two. I'm "buying high", with the implication there being that owners who are trading him away think they are "selling high" on him after what they perceive to be a fluke game. But I don't see him as a fluke from here on out, so it's "buying high".
 
I'm also curious where most people value Calvin in redrafts. I'm pretty sure I could get Burress for him straight up, but I think I'd actually rather keep CJ.

He is on pace for 1400 yards and 10 TDs. And the line and QB play has been awful all year, so its not like anything has changed.

 
kens522 said:
So Calvin Johnson had 154 yards receiving and a TD this week against a weak Houston defense. Look closer and you'll see that he only had two catches in the game:1.) A 58-yard Hail Mary at the end of the first half that did nothing but pad stats.2.) A broken-coverage 96-yard touchdown in the second half.You have an awful QB situation there in Detroit with Orlovsky and Stanton. You have NO other weapons so defenses can double Megatron. So it's time to deal him.Question is, how low do you go for him?Clearly, you'd deal him for a Top 6 receiver (Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, S. Smith, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson). Personally, I'd hesitate to trade him for Owens or R. Moss, with their QB issues. I'd gladly trade him for Burress.The question is, would you trade him for Boldin? He's coming back soon, into a powerful offense, and his owners may be undervaluing him because of the injury. Do you come out on top in a Megatron for Boldin trade?I think so. What do you think? Cecil, Bloom, rest of the Footballguys, weigh in on this...Ken
Click to expand...
Honestly I think there is really nowhere to go but up for Megatron. The qbs are young and are learning the system. They will improve with every week as they are going through crash courses really with Kitnas injury. But That said he has shown you when given the opportunity? He is a freak. I think he continues to get the opportunities and if the other team commits a few turnovers, or the defense actually plays well for a stretch he could have big days. You know he'll get the chances, and I think he can produce from those chances. That said. I'd trade for Boldin. Redraft or dynasty. But I don't think anyone will give you that. I think you are more likely to get offered at best greg jennings. And I wouldn't make that deal.
 
RJS113 said:
I'm also curious where most people value Calvin in redrafts. I'm pretty sure I could get Burress for him straight up, but I think I'd actually rather keep CJ. He is on pace for 1400 yards and 10 TDs. And the line and QB play has been awful all year, so its not like anything has changed.
Click to expand...
and it's not like the qb is solely due to BAD qb play, just inexperienced QB play, and that will most likely gradually improve.
 
Michael Brown said:
blue&silver said:
Aren't most big play TDs the result of some kind of blown coverage. I never understood the 'if you take those plays away he had a mediocre day'. From what I see those plays counted in the box scores.I'm just sayin.
Click to expand...
I generally agree with this, but in some instances the argument holds water. If a guy isn't getting regular opportunities, it's tougher for him to continue putting up big numbers. If Calvin is only catching two passes a week, they HAVE to be 50+ yard receptions in order to be valuable to owners. And the likelihood of anyone catching two bombs on a week-in, week-out basis is extremely small.That said, I think with the way Furrey performed he and McDonald can take enough pressure off (and the Lions will usually be losing by enough) for Calvin to pile up garbage time yards in addition to the occasional bomb or two. I'm "buying high", with the implication there being that owners who are trading him away think they are "selling high" on him after what they perceive to be a fluke game. But I don't see him as a fluke from here on out, so it's "buying high".
Click to expand...
calvin caught a ton of balls week 3. But that was with Kitna.
 
the TD wasn't a "blown" coverage. it was a mismatch exploited by CJ's speed.

 
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Im gonna suck up his low number of targets for the next month, then expect/hope Orlavsky and Stanton to be more up to speed. Im not going to trade off his megatalent. Hopefully it works out. But regardless, I enjoy owning Calvin as much or more then about any other player in the league.

 
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joffer said:
the TD wasn't a "blown" coverage. it was a mismatch exploited by CJ's speed.
Click to expand...
This is absolutely true. I saw the highlight on ESPN this afternoon and I think what Trey Wingo said was something like, "He beat the defender in the first three steps of that route. Then it was over." Then one of the other guys (I think it was Dilfer) chimed in with, "The great ones always win a route in the first three steps." He gave the DB one move and was gone!
 
Orlovsky didn't get him the ball enough. With the plays Calvin made, you can expect that to change. The beauty about the Lions is they will always be behind and throwing cause their D is so awful

 
Not only was it NOT blown coverage but DeMarcus Fagen gave him a two-hand chuck about 12-13 yards down field, could have been flagged because he knew at that point he was TOAST and Megatron still blew by him in a heartbeat and made it look easy. Orlovsky got decent blocking at his own goaline and if somehow the Lions could provide more of same, we could see a lot more plays like this one.

That said....it was clear that the Texans in no way were awake for this kind of play that deep in Lions territory, even up 17 early 4th with the Lions needing something big. But there is no reason to think it was a fluke either, and being a homer :whoosh: , I am as down on the Lions, maybe more so, than the next guy.

Redraft= mild buy low and/or hold.

Dynasty/keeper= obvious hold or buy low and reap the profits when/if the rest of the offense gets on the higher plane this guys clearly flying on.

:lmao:

 
When this guy came into the league, many thought he was as good a WR as we've seen since Randy Moss. Nothing we've seen so far has changed that. He has shown incredible talent.

Despite a ridiculous QB situation and a terrible team, he's 7th in the NFL in yardage and has 4tds...(League leaders at WR have 5 tds)

Trading him right now is just not smart whatsoever...

The only scenario that I'd trade him under is if you can get a king's ransom in a re-draft league because the possibility does exist that the Lions remain extremely inconsistent.

But even then, being on a bad team is great for a WR..they're always behind and they'll never run the clock out.

 
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