wannabee
Footballguy
I wrote this in an ACF thread, but would like some discussion. What do you think? Am I way off base?
For redraft leagues only, I am planning on staying away from all Tennessee Titan players, at their projected ADPs, with the exception of either LenDale White or Chris Brown. One will emerge as the guy in preseason. If it is White, I will look for Brown in the late rounds. I think the perceived backup RB will have a good deal of upside and a much lower price tag. If White, for some reason, holds out, I will be happy to take Brown earlier since I think rookie RBs have such a steep learning curve anyway and the loss of training camp impairs the upside of the rookie season (a post above details this thought) .
If White comes into preseason as the starter, I would love Brown as a RB4 in the 10-12 round.
The reason (s) I am opposed to the other Titan skill players in redraft leagues. I read a quote by Jeff Fisher saying he wants to run the ball alot. With the Titan defense what it is, I expect the Titan offense to want to try to control the games with a ball control running game. Even with the probable high amount of passing, it is difficult now to predict several things:
Who will be the QB, and for how long? Volek looks to be opening game starter. But, Fisher has said Young will see action this year. In addition, there has been rumor that Collins might sign in Tennessee thus muddying the QB waters even more.
The Titans signed Givens in the offseason and Drew Bennett seems to be almost healthy. But, which will be the go to guy? Too early to tell. I think we infer too much from the great streak Volek and Bennett put together in 2004. Plus, the Titans have 3 fairly talented WRs entering their 2 year (even though Jones is injured), as well as Bobby Wade (who has impressed some in OTAs). Add on top of this the talented group of TEs. Mainly due to lack of talented and healthy WRs, the Titan TEs were targeted over 200 times in 2005. That is huge. Those targets were mainly evenly split between Troupe and Kinney, with Scaife getting some, too.
To me, these Titan receivers (WR and TE) will be overvalued for my risk tolerance. At present, White is gaining on Brown in ADP. Brown is down 5 spots in the recent ADP (to 72 overall and RB35) and White is up 7 spots overall (to 78 overall and RB 38). I expect this trend to continue if White gets signed before camp. At this time, White is a 7th rounder and Brown the last pick of the 6th round. I expect one, by late August, to be a 5th round pick and the other a 10 rounder.
Bennett is up 8 spots overall in the recent ADP and I do expect this to continue as well. He is valued (by ADP) over: Stallworth, Matt Jones, and even Kennison. Bennett is WR31 and Givens is WR47 in the recent ADP. Givens is dropping and Bennett is gaining.
Even still, I think the situation is filled with uncertainty. The only happy fantasy owners will be the ones that take one Tennessee WR and guess right or guess which QB will start the games they need them to (assuming any Titan QB will be a fantasy backup anyway). We still do not know how Troupe and Kinney will be used in the passing game, either, assuming the Titan WRs are healthy.
Seems muddy to me, with not a ton of upside, so I will stay away with the exception of the backup RB.
ADPs: http://www.footballguys.com/06dodds_adp.php
For redraft leagues only, I am planning on staying away from all Tennessee Titan players, at their projected ADPs, with the exception of either LenDale White or Chris Brown. One will emerge as the guy in preseason. If it is White, I will look for Brown in the late rounds. I think the perceived backup RB will have a good deal of upside and a much lower price tag. If White, for some reason, holds out, I will be happy to take Brown earlier since I think rookie RBs have such a steep learning curve anyway and the loss of training camp impairs the upside of the rookie season (a post above details this thought) .
If White comes into preseason as the starter, I would love Brown as a RB4 in the 10-12 round.
The reason (s) I am opposed to the other Titan skill players in redraft leagues. I read a quote by Jeff Fisher saying he wants to run the ball alot. With the Titan defense what it is, I expect the Titan offense to want to try to control the games with a ball control running game. Even with the probable high amount of passing, it is difficult now to predict several things:
Who will be the QB, and for how long? Volek looks to be opening game starter. But, Fisher has said Young will see action this year. In addition, there has been rumor that Collins might sign in Tennessee thus muddying the QB waters even more.
The Titans signed Givens in the offseason and Drew Bennett seems to be almost healthy. But, which will be the go to guy? Too early to tell. I think we infer too much from the great streak Volek and Bennett put together in 2004. Plus, the Titans have 3 fairly talented WRs entering their 2 year (even though Jones is injured), as well as Bobby Wade (who has impressed some in OTAs). Add on top of this the talented group of TEs. Mainly due to lack of talented and healthy WRs, the Titan TEs were targeted over 200 times in 2005. That is huge. Those targets were mainly evenly split between Troupe and Kinney, with Scaife getting some, too.
To me, these Titan receivers (WR and TE) will be overvalued for my risk tolerance. At present, White is gaining on Brown in ADP. Brown is down 5 spots in the recent ADP (to 72 overall and RB35) and White is up 7 spots overall (to 78 overall and RB 38). I expect this trend to continue if White gets signed before camp. At this time, White is a 7th rounder and Brown the last pick of the 6th round. I expect one, by late August, to be a 5th round pick and the other a 10 rounder.
Bennett is up 8 spots overall in the recent ADP and I do expect this to continue as well. He is valued (by ADP) over: Stallworth, Matt Jones, and even Kennison. Bennett is WR31 and Givens is WR47 in the recent ADP. Givens is dropping and Bennett is gaining.
Even still, I think the situation is filled with uncertainty. The only happy fantasy owners will be the ones that take one Tennessee WR and guess right or guess which QB will start the games they need them to (assuming any Titan QB will be a fantasy backup anyway). We still do not know how Troupe and Kinney will be used in the passing game, either, assuming the Titan WRs are healthy.
Seems muddy to me, with not a ton of upside, so I will stay away with the exception of the backup RB.
ADPs: http://www.footballguys.com/06dodds_adp.php
