fantasyplayer
Footballguy
I'm interested in opinions on Houshmandzadeh for this season in Seattle. Until last season, he's consistently been in the Top 15 in my non PPR league. If Hasselback is healthy, could he return to Top 15 form?
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TJ Houshmandzadeh (1 Viewer)
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Banger
Footballguy
I haven't really analyzed all the different rankings/situations yet but I'd probably put Housh in the 15-20 range.
I've got Houshmandzadeh at #7 among WRs on my non-PPR board - he's in the 2nd tier of the top 12 on my non PPR WR board, which I see as ranging from #4 Randy Moss (1200/10) to #8 Roddy White (1350/7). Those guys are all within 3 fantasy points of each other IMO, so I'd be happy to draft any of them as my #1 (Moss, Jennings, A. Johnson, Houshmandzadeh, White).
Nate Burleson (if he returns from his blown out knee at 100%) and Deion Branch (if he can get back up to speed) with Houshmandzadeh makes for a nice 1-2-3 at WR and the Seahawks have John Carlson at TE, too - opposing defenses won't be able to key on Houshmandzadeh in Seattle nearly as much as they did in Cincy last season.
As long as Hasselbeck's back holds up, this passing attack could be among the top 10 in the NFL, IMO.
Nate Burleson (if he returns from his blown out knee at 100%) and Deion Branch (if he can get back up to speed) with Houshmandzadeh makes for a nice 1-2-3 at WR and the Seahawks have John Carlson at TE, too - opposing defenses won't be able to key on Houshmandzadeh in Seattle nearly as much as they did in Cincy last season.
As long as Hasselbeck's back holds up, this passing attack could be among the top 10 in the NFL, IMO.
Banger
Footballguy
Wow, that's awful lofty. He's finished top 10 once (7th), has broken 1,000 yards twice, has had double digit TD's once (only more than 7 TD's twice) in 7 seasons. I have my doubts how he will perform as a solo act as opposed to be a good #2 to Chad Johnson. I'd take Chad Johnson, Chris Henry over two huge question marks in Burleson and Branch. There's virtually no upside if you draft him there and a good bit of downside.TJ is a nice WR but I'd have no confidence to march him out there as my #1 wr each week. A lot of things have to go right for him most notably his QB with back problems need to be healthy, he needs his wr's to stay healthy and they have absolutely zero running game.
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sho nuff
Footballguy
Obviously this is the key and the risk with him. Housh's value rises and falls with Hass's health this year. Im staying away.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I am an Housh owner in a PPR and I'm not ready to put him in the top 10. In a PPR I think he can get closer to 10 than a non PPR. In a PPR, 12-15 maybe. All dependent on Hass's back....
I think that we have to take a closer look at the career numbers that you presented above. Here's why: Over the last 3 years, Houshmandzadeh has caught at least 90 balls per season. In the 2 seasons where he had competent QBing under center during that span (2006 and 2007, when Carson Palmer played a full 16 games and didn't have an elbow issue), he caught 9 and 12 TDs, respectively. Last year, with the parade of inadequacy at QB in Cincy, he still caught 92 passes, but he was unable to score TDs (as was the entire offense) with a mere 4. I'd argue that the lack of TDs was due to his QB's falling flat on their faces, not on Houshmandzadeh.Banger said:
Basically, Houshmandzadeh has been consistently catching 90+ balls for 3 years straight. He's the new #1 in Seattle, and all reports indicate he has a strong rapport with Hasselbeck already.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Houshmandzadeh with 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs by the end of the year. Thus my ranking.
Personally I have about 20 WR's ahead of Housh in a non-ppr league. He's going to miss Palmer a lot more than Palmer will miss him.
Keep in mind that Mike Holmgren is gone at Jim Mora Jr. is now coaching, so the days of Hass throwing 30+ times per game are probably gone. I don't see Matty H as a top-10 QB either.
Housh=low end WR2. I'd rather take my chances with guys like Santana Moss or DeSean Jackson.
Keep in mind that Mike Holmgren is gone at Jim Mora Jr. is now coaching, so the days of Hass throwing 30+ times per game are probably gone. I don't see Matty H as a top-10 QB either.
Housh=low end WR2. I'd rather take my chances with guys like Santana Moss or DeSean Jackson.
RockHard
Footballguy
Based on TJ's YPC the past three seasons he would have to catch well over 100 passes to reach your yardage projections. I'm not so optimistic: 64 768 5.
Banger
Footballguy
Housh hasn't reached 1200 yards once in his career and only double digit TD's once. I don't see the Seattle passing offense being better than Cincy's from a few years back, he won't have a WR to draw coverage like Chad did and Palmer was a good bit better than Hasselbeck is now so I don't see why you'd expect his numbers would exceed his best year. I wouldn't argue that it's not possible but I wouldn't say it's probable that he reaches those numbers. I think you're drafting him at his ceiling while a lot of other WR's have a higher ceiling but and a higher floor.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
Because you expect them to run the ball 30 times a game with those RB's on that squad? Their best weapon on O is Housh....
MAC_32
Footballguy
I agree that the passing game's going to be leaned on heavily because the running game is void of talent, but I really don't think there's a #1 weapon in the passing game. Hass is known to spread it around and I expect him to do it with this group too. I would be very surprised if there's a WR1 in this group, someone may end up as a solid WR2 but I think it's more likely you'll see several guys who are unspectacular and inconsistent but put up end game WR2.5 numbers (in Carlson's case, TE1.5 numbers).
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Mark,The Seattle coaches have said they want to return to more running, less passing, than under Holmgren. This has been Mora's MO since he was in Atlanta, and although most coaches not named Martz say this, I think if Seattle can stay in games they will be close to 50/50 run/pass.In Cincy they had no RBs who were effective as receivers, they were weak at the WR3 position, and had only blocking TEs, so Housh was catching way too many dump offs which inflated his catch totals and deflated his YPC. Seattle has Branch and Burleson returning (still some speculation Branch could be moved, but I think he stays) as well as a pass catching TE entering his 2nd year after a successful rookie season. Obomanu should also be involved some this year.I see more like 75 catches for Housh, and his YPC a little higher, say 12.5 or so, and therefore 900-950 yards. Maybe 5-7 TDs. WR23-25 or so.Hey LBH, good luck with your bet.
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Hey CP,I understand that Mora's desire is to run the ball more, but as TheFanatic points out - with this RB stable: Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett (SD), Justin Forsett (KR), Devin Moore, Tyler Roehl - I don't think they can do anything of the sort. I think, for this year at least, the offense will rise or fall on Hasselbeck's arm/back and Houshmandzadeh's hands. They'll be shaded more like 53-54% passing/47-46% running, IMO. 90-100 receptions/1170-1300/8-10 is where I expect to see Houshmandzadeh, given no major injuries and etc. Banger and I are just going to have to agree to disagree.Mark,The Seattle coaches have said they want to return to more running, less passing, than under Holmgren. This has been Mora's MO since he was in Atlanta, and although most coaches not named Martz say this, I think if Seattle can stay in games they will be close to 50/50 run/pass.In Cincy they had no RBs who were effective as receivers, they were weak at the WR3 position, and had only blocking TEs, so Housh was catching way too many dump offs which inflated his catch totals and deflated his YPC. Seattle has Branch and Burleson returning (still some speculation Branch could be moved, but I think he stays) as well as a pass catching TE entering his 2nd year after a successful rookie season. Obomanu should also be involved some this year.I see more like 75 catches for Housh, and his YPC a little higher, say 12.5 or so, and therefore 900-950 yards. Maybe 5-7 TDs.Hey LBH, good luck with your bet.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I guess this is where I'm an outlier, because I actually see Julius Jones having a revival. He was putting up the numbers last year early on (417 yards and a 4.63 YPC through his first 5 games, including 127 and 142 yards in weeks 2 and 3), but began having fumbling problems (the first time in his career this began happening), and Holmgren lost patience and went mostly to Morris. I think Jones can and will run the ball effectively. His 4.4 YPC on the season was certainly acceptable.
We'll see, but I don't see them passing the ball > 475 times in 2009 if they can run effectively.
We'll see, but I don't see them passing the ball > 475 times in 2009 if they can run effectively.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Focusing on two good games surrounded by dozens of bad games is a big, big mistake imho. He ran well against two teams with questionable-to-poor running defenses (San Fran and St Louis), he ran badly against better run defenses (Buffalo and New York), then he saw his touches disappear. He did not fumble until the Green Bay game (week 6) and he didn't fumble again until the Arizona game (week 11), he only had > 12 carries one time after week 5 (week 10 vs. Miami). Add this to his mediocre-to-bad performances for most of his career (2nd half of 2004 withstanding) in Dallas and I don't see how anyone could argue that he's anything better than replacement level, at best...and I don't understand where you're getting that he was benched for fumbling stuff from, unless Y!'s DB is inaccurate. It should also be noted that he has shown a tendency to start off hot and fade as the number of touches mount up over the weeks, it shows in his on-the-field performance too. I don't think he runs tough at all, especially if he's been shouldering a heavy load over several weeks.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Exactly. Saying he ran well against the Rams is like saying water is wet...
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Fool me once, fool me twice... fool me 5 NFL seasons. You see where I'm going with this. I think Julius Jones falls into the Laurencey Maroney category. The type of player that has enough talent, pedigree and has shown flashes, although few and far between, but just can't seem to put it together on the field, whether it be injury, situation or some other factor.BTW - I have drafted both of those players more than once and sadly, if they're around when I'm looking for an RB4/5, I'll probably draft them again based on that "upside".
Couch Potato
Footballguy
San Fran and St Louis is 1/4 of their schedule every year, yes? So why discount that as if it is irrelevant?New OC Knapp has had his teams in the top 10 in rushing attempts and yards each of the last 8 years: Raiders (2008 10th/10th), (2007 4th/6th), Falcons (2006 1st/1st), (2005 3rd/1st), (2004 5th/1st) (I know Vick was there, but even without him they would have been top 10), and 49ers (2003 6th/5th), (2002 5th/6th), (2001 2nd/2nd). They will run the ball, and Julius Jones will be their primary runner. His overall YPC was 4.4 last year for 150+ carries. Ignore him if you like. I won't.
millertyme1
Footballguy
If he is such come August, I won't ignore either. I won't go out of my way to acquire (not that you'd have to), but should come at decent value.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I was half right, half wrong in my first post on this. He was already splitting carries with Morris when Holmgrem lost patience with the fumbling. He had 2 fumbles against Dallas in week 13, one lost, and that was the week he landed in the dog house. Those were his 3rd and 4th of the season. He had just 6 carries over the last 4 weeks of the year.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I drafted him in the 11th round this week. He should have 250 carries and 1000 yards, and in the 11th that's good value IMO.
Ice Cream Man
Footballguy
Not sure if you were being sarcastic, but that's pretty much where I have him.
LBH
Footballguy
Thanks. Obviously I think youre way off on your projectionsMark,The Seattle coaches have said they want to return to more running, less passing, than under Holmgren. This has been Mora's MO since he was in Atlanta, and although most coaches not named Martz say this, I think if Seattle can stay in games they will be close to 50/50 run/pass.In Cincy they had no RBs who were effective as receivers, they were weak at the WR3 position, and had only blocking TEs, so Housh was catching way too many dump offs which inflated his catch totals and deflated his YPC. Seattle has Branch and Burleson returning (still some speculation Branch could be moved, but I think he stays) as well as a pass catching TE entering his 2nd year after a successful rookie season. Obomanu should also be involved some this year.I see more like 75 catches for Housh, and his YPC a little higher, say 12.5 or so, and therefore 900-950 yards. Maybe 5-7 TDs. WR23-25 or so.Hey LBH, good luck with your bet.
Houshmanzadeh might be the best talent at WR that Hasselbeck has had. I always thought that Djax was more of a product of a friendly position in a pass happy offense, and a good QB than an outright talent. Im not sure how much impact Burleson or Branch will have on Houshmanzadehs targets. The flanker spot is the place to be and Branch would have been good there had he ever been able to stay healthy. Im not sure what they will do with Branch. They made an aggressive move on draft day to trade up into the 3rd rd to grab Deon Butler who is a small speedy guy they may view as Branch's replacement depending on how quickly he adapts to the pro game. Burleson would make for a solid bet to start at split end depending on how his rehab from season ending surgery goes. Im guessing that he should be ok. I dont think Obamanu will start if Burleson is healthy. The offense has changed under the new regime but is still considered a WCO so Im guessing that those short passes he caught in Cinnci will be available in Seattle as well, especially if he moves to the slot in 3 wide like what has been reported in mini camp. If Hass and Housh both stay healthy Im going to predict 100 1100 10
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm not discounting the fact that they play San Fran and St Louis four times in total, I'm discounting the extremely small sample of solid performances...at least relative to his high number of eggs laid. In fact, the next time they played San Fran he amassed a whopping 6 carries for 9 yards.RB's with less touches have higher YPC's than those with more touches, you're not saying anything unusual with Julia's 4.4 ypc in 158 carries. Some other players with YPC's of 4.4 or greater - Michael Bush, Lamont Jordan, Sammy Morris, Tashard Choice, Derrick Ward, Kevin Faulk. His countpart (the dude he lost the job to and is now a backup in Detroit) had a 4.3 YPC in slightly less carries. Julia's 4.4 ypc really doesn't say much of anything.
I'm not saying you will be wrong in thinking Julia is relevant this year, I think you've got your blinders on though because there's several reasons to believe Julia will fail and just a handful of reasons why he might succeed.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Tell me this. How do YOU think they will allocate the 400+ carries in Seattle this year? Forsett and his 98 pounds gonna be the primary guy? UDFA Devin Moore and his 190 pounds? Duckett has had a combined 165 carries the last 3 years and has carried more than 130 times once in his 7 year career. Who is left? Julius Jones is left. He's been named starter and primary ball carrier. Are you suggesting some mystery man is going to come out of nowhere?Assuming you will at least accept Jones is the guy, go ahead and give him a lower YPC, I don't care. He's 4.0 for his career, give him that then. If he just gets 250 carries at 4.0, it's 1,000 yards. As cheaply as he can be had in drafts, that's a steal. I'm not going to get all caught up in whether I think he's the second coming of Barry Sanders or not, I'm after fantasy points, and in the 11th round he's a helluva value. I'm a lot more concerned about what his coaches plan for him than what some message board's opinion of him is.MAC_32 said:
I think the biggest failing message boarders have is that they somehow think their opinions trump the opinions of the people in organizations that make the decisions. They signed Jones to a 4 year contract last year. They let Morris walk. They added no FA of note. They drafted no one. Obviously the team wants him to be their guy. It doesn't matter if people here think Jones sucks; Ruskell, Mora, and Knapp are going with him, and if he's getting the ball 250+ times he's got value.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
By the way Mac_32, I respect the hell out of you. You know your facts. I'm having fun here. 
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't practice in the art of projections when creating my cheat sheet, I think it's an inefficient way to create a cheat sheet, so I can't accurately answer your first question. I will say this, if worse comes to worse and I have to go to waivers to find a RB week to week I would rather do that (and look for next year's Peyton Hillis, Ben Jarvus Green Ellis, Dominic Rhodes, Mewelde Moore, etc) than rely on Julia against all but the league's worst run defenses.I've been a buyer into Forsett since sometime during the 2007 season, I realize he probably won't get the opportunity over Julia (because Julia's the one being paid) unless he completely outplays him in camp and in his limited looks in-season and even then I'm not sure the staff will lean on him and if they do, how much. Still, I think he's at least got a shot of being somebody in this league whereas we know what Julia is, and that's not much.
If you don't believe a message boarder's opinion means anything then why are you posting here? You think that if Julia goes out and plays softly as he's done just about every year in the league that they're going to keep giving him the rock? I don't know where the touches will go, but I think his will be limited after he shows that he's still a mediocre/bad RB. If I had to take a guess right now I'd say it turns into a 40-40-20 split between Julia, Forsett, and Duckett with Moore used sparingly (if he makes the roster) and the passing game leaned on heavier than they plan to right now, but that's just a reasonable guess. I think it's very possible they still bring someone else in, whether it be an Edgerrin James type or a camp cut/trade.
MAC_32
Footballguy
x2, man.By the way Mac_32, I respect the hell out of you. You know your facts. I'm having fun here.
This should be interesting. I am one that thinks Houshy is overrated this season. I just think too much has to go right for him to catch 90 balls for 1100 yds and 7+ TDs. And LBH ..... it should be interesting .....Mark,The Seattle coaches have said they want to return to more running, less passing, than under Holmgren. This has been Mora's MO since he was in Atlanta, and although most coaches not named Martz say this, I think if Seattle can stay in games they will be close to 50/50 run/pass.In Cincy they had no RBs who were effective as receivers, they were weak at the WR3 position, and had only blocking TEs, so Housh was catching way too many dump offs which inflated his catch totals and deflated his YPC. Seattle has Branch and Burleson returning (still some speculation Branch could be moved, but I think he stays) as well as a pass catching TE entering his 2nd year after a successful rookie season. Obomanu should also be involved some this year.I see more like 75 catches for Housh, and his YPC a little higher, say 12.5 or so, and therefore 900-950 yards. Maybe 5-7 TDs. WR23-25 or so.Hey LBH, good luck with your bet.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I was critical of Houshmandzadeh this offseason as I felt he was going to get a payday that wasn't warranted in free agency. He's a solid NFL receiver and I don't want to pretend otherwise. But the fact is he's always played second fiddle to Chad Johnson, a truly elite receiver, and is the very definition of a possession guy. His YPC has dropped for five consecutive seasons.
That said, he is being paid to be the Seahawks #1 and while I too think Julius Jones is set to surprise a little, I still think the aggregate production of the SEA RB stable will be far less successful than the coaching staff would hope.
So net-net, I see Housh catching at least 80 catches if he plays 16 games, but I don't think we should expect much more than 10.0-11.0 yards per reception. I'll grant him the opportunity to match his 9% TD rate over the three productive years when Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna were under center in Cincy, which gives him a reasonable shot at 7-9 scores.
But I also think we all need to recognize what a high risk situation forecasting Seattle is right now. New coaches, QB coming back from injury, uncertain running game, rebuilding defense, and a complete guess as to who lines up opposite Housh. Branch was on crutches at the mini-camp, Burleson coming off a knee injury. Deon Butler could conceivably be forced into the lineup.
How will Housh handle being double teamed? How will he handle his new surroundings? Will he flourish in the YAC-driven offense that Knapp calls versus the vertical passing attach he was a part of in Cincy?
So many questions that I really can't see taking Housh unless he falls several rounds below his projected ADP.
That said, he is being paid to be the Seahawks #1 and while I too think Julius Jones is set to surprise a little, I still think the aggregate production of the SEA RB stable will be far less successful than the coaching staff would hope.
So net-net, I see Housh catching at least 80 catches if he plays 16 games, but I don't think we should expect much more than 10.0-11.0 yards per reception. I'll grant him the opportunity to match his 9% TD rate over the three productive years when Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna were under center in Cincy, which gives him a reasonable shot at 7-9 scores.
But I also think we all need to recognize what a high risk situation forecasting Seattle is right now. New coaches, QB coming back from injury, uncertain running game, rebuilding defense, and a complete guess as to who lines up opposite Housh. Branch was on crutches at the mini-camp, Burleson coming off a knee injury. Deon Butler could conceivably be forced into the lineup.
How will Housh handle being double teamed? How will he handle his new surroundings? Will he flourish in the YAC-driven offense that Knapp calls versus the vertical passing attach he was a part of in Cincy?
So many questions that I really can't see taking Housh unless he falls several rounds below his projected ADP.
One other thing not mentioned is how will the coaching change (especially loss of Holmgren) affect the offense?
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Yep...Mora is basically getting the band back together, reuniting with Greg Knapp for the 3rd time. They were both coordinators in SF and then of course Knapp came with him to the ATL; which is tough to use as a barometer because they had Michael Vick which basically made it impossible for Knapp to implement a classic WCO as is his pedigree.
'Tis true that Houshmandzadeh's YPC has dropped for 5 straight seasons, but it's also true that Chad Johnson's has dropped for 3 straight seasons. Really, does anyone think that last year's 53/540/4 (10.2 YPC) for Johnson or Houshmandzadeh's 92/904/4 (9.8 YPC) were representative of their abilities as receivers? I don't. I think it was due to awful quarterbacking. I do agree that there are a lot of unknowns around Houshmandzadeh/Seattle/Hasselbeck this year, and obviously my projections/rankings of him are subject to change once we get a better look at how the roster is shaping up and how he performs in training camp. But I truly believe he should be in the 12-13 YPC range rather than the 10 YPC range in Seattle.Jason Wood said:
