Tom Brady (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Brady still had a spectacular year with 4400 yds and 28 TDs despite coming back from injury. And he's still only 32 years old.

However, there are rumors Moss doesn't return to NE. Welker is coming off a major knee injury. If Brady is without these guys, either short term or long term, could this be the last we see of Brady as an elite QB for fantasy purposes? He's still commanding a high price. So, is now the time to sell?

 

[mlball77]

In my dynasty league, the Brady owner basically traded him straight across for Big Ben. He said he was concerned about the impact of the Welker injury on Brady's future production as well as Brady starting to get a bit older. -For me, I'd still rather have Brady, but I think there is reason for concern. However, I would note that Brady was a very productive QB with limited talent at WR in years past.

 

[David Yudkin]

Moss isn't going anywhere this year, but beyond that is up in the air. Of course, there probably won't be football past 2010 anyway, so that poses a problem for all the players.

 

[FGITLOTR]

I had Brady under contract next season in an auction, dynasty league and was shocked someone took his monster contract off my hands--I gave up a little cash to offset his huge salary, but received Marshall and Bradshaw in return (both have cheap cap hits). IMO, Welker's injury was too serious for my liking and Moss' play down the stretch just left a bad taste in my mouth--also, we have no clue what Brandon Tate will do next year and that line is old and very average.

I can't imagine in most dynasty leagues he will be worth the draft position/cap hit it will take to get him.

 

[Couch Potato]

Brady turns 33 just before the 2010 season. His numbers in 2009 were less than owners hoped but that was due to rib and finger injuries. He has expressed a desire to play a long time, like Warner, Favre, and others have done. Top QBs do not have to fall off the productivity map the way other positions do. While run-of-the-mill QBs get replaced sooner, there is no reason to think that an elite talent like Brady won't continue to be highly productive for another 5 years. I would not be a seller at this time unless getting a helluva player in return.

 

[Workhorse]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Patriots return to a more balanced offense in 2010 by running the ball more and using more play-action to keep Brady from taking a pounding. If that's the case, then I'd expect Brady's numbers to drop off. Nothing more than a hunch on this though.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Brady turns 33 just before the 2010 season. His numbers in 2009 were less than owners hoped but that was due to rib and finger injuries. He has expressed a desire to play a long time, like Warner, Favre, and others have done. Top QBs do not have to fall off the productivity map the way other positions do. While run-of-the-mill QBs get replaced sooner, there is no reason to think that an elite talent like Brady won't continue to be highly productive for another 5 years. I would not be a seller at this time unless getting a helluva player in return.

Add in the fact that it was his first year removed from ACL surgery and the subsequent infection. Welker may not be as good in 2010, but the combination of him and 2nd year WR Edelman could be very productive.There are only a handful of guys in the entire league that can carry you to a title. Brady is one of them.

 

[kaa]

The problem with this line of thinking is that perhaps they find a way to acquire a deep threat to replace Moss.

 

[Ariakis]

No player on your dynasty team should be untradeable but for Brady I would explore options but certainly not sell low.

 

[Raider Nation]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?

I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

 

[SpineDoc]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

With an option to start 2 QBs in my league, I decided to upgrade and traded Sanchez and a 2011 first rounder for Brady. It may have been too high of a price but I wanted two solid options at QB every week. Hopefully I can get 3-5 good years from him.

 

[Raider Nation]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

With an option to start 2 QBs in my league, I decided to upgrade and traded Sanchez and a 2011 first rounder for Brady. It may have been too high of a price but I wanted two solid options at QB every week. Hopefully I can get 3-5 good years from him.

Man, if Martz does what he always does for an offense, I'd feel good going to battle with Cutler and Brady every week.

 

[David Yudkin]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

With an option to start 2 QBs in my league, I decided to upgrade and traded Sanchez and a 2011 first rounder for Brady. It may have been too high of a price but I wanted two solid options at QB every week. Hopefully I can get 3-5 good years from him.

Man, if Martz does what he always does for an offense, I'd feel good going to battle with Cutler and Brady every week.

A lot of the Martz effect has come from really upping a team's number of passing attempts. Chicago already threw the ball 563 times last year. They should become more efficient under Martz, but they may not see the same Martz impact as they can only throw the ball so many times.

 

[Donsmith753]

If I was going to trade Brady I'd probably wait until the first game that he really goes off and look to move him after that.

 

[JPeso]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

Dealt Brady for Cutler, Forsett, and what looks to be a mid-to-late 2nd in 2011. Other QBs are Rodgers, Kolb, Favre, and Freeman, so felt I could take the risk here. Brady was fetching nothing in a straight up deal for 1st, RB, or WR.

 

[Cassius]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Patriots return to a more balanced offense in 2010 by running the ball more and using more play-action to keep Brady from taking a pounding. If that's the case, then I'd expect Brady's numbers to drop off. Nothing more than a hunch on this though.

What makes you say this? The three receivers they drafted or the fact that they didn't add a RB?Read the tea leaves people - 5 wide all year.

 

[AngryPatriot]

If I was going to trade Brady I'd probably wait until the first game that he really goes off and look to move him after that.

? Why not wait till he goes off for the first 7 games and then trade him. lol... and lose your league! Brady owned in my 3 leagues and I feel confident going forward, QB not an issue.Agree with the above poster, they added more weapons, Edelman is good, Holt looks servicable, Tate is a deep threat, new TE... AD NAUSEUM.

 

[Donsmith753]

If I was going to trade Brady I'd probably wait until the first game that he really goes off and look to move him after that.

? Why not wait till he goes off for the first 7 games and then trade him. lol... and lose your league! Brady owned in my 3 leagues and I feel confident going forward, QB not an issue.Agree with the above poster, they added more weapons, Edelman is good, Holt looks servicable, Tate is a deep threat, new TE... AD NAUSEUM.

IF.

 

[AngryPatriot]

touche! Duly noted, lol

 

[Donsmith753]

touche! Duly noted, lol

I wouldn't trade Brady yet. I'd be exploring young options who I could slot in should he decide to pack it in at the end of this year. I don't think people will pay what he's worth and so I'd hold him.If I was trading though I see no point doing it now. Expectations are pretty low for him this year and his value can only go up

 

[MDSkinner]

In a Dynasty league that I am in the Brady owner traded Brady for Ahmad Bradshaw and the 1.07 Rookie (which the owner then took Hardesty with).

To me that seems like not great value but I suppose that depends on your feelings of both Bradshaw and Hardesty.

 

[finito]

In a Dynasty league that I am in the Brady owner traded Brady for Ahmad Bradshaw and the 1.07 Rookie (which the owner then took Hardesty with). To me that seems like not great value but I suppose that depends on your feelings of both Bradshaw and Hardesty.

If my backup QB was good I would trade Brady for that, though I'm bullish on both those RBs.

 

[Lab]

I was all fired up to argue that Brady still has lots of life left, and that NE has managed for years to get Brady plenty of opportunities even with weaker WRs. But when I started gathering evidence to make my argument, I began to have second thoughts. He is getting oldish -- at 33 years, he's the third-oldest of the top 20 QBs. Only Manning (34.6) and McNabb (33.11) are older. Even a mature vet like Brees is 2 years younger than Brady. Also, although Brady was a monster in 2007 (4800/50) and very solid in 2009 (4400/28), his pre-Moss years were definitely a step below what people expect now from a stud QB: 3500/24 in 2006, 4100/26 in 2005, 3700/28 in 2004, 3600/23 in 2003, etc.

I do think Brady has a 2-4 more years of top-15 production left. But I also think we've seen the high-water mark already, and he's going to start sliding. I don't have him on any teams, but if I did, I'd start to look to grab value now while I can.

Interesting stuff.

 

[firstseason1988]

I traded Tom Brady prior to last season for:

Mark Sanchez

Bryant Westbrook

Lesean McCoy

Robert Meachem

Felt and feeling pretty good about it. Just missed playoffs but am looking better this year and beyond.

 

[Cassius]

I traded Tom Brady prior to last season for:Mark SanchezBryant WestbrookLesean McCoyRobert MeachemFelt and feeling pretty good about it. Just missed playoffs but am looking better this year and beyond.

Bad.

 

[David Yudkin]

I was all fired up to argue that Brady still has lots of life left, and that NE has managed for years to get Brady plenty of opportunities even with weaker WRs. But when I started gathering evidence to make my argument, I began to have second thoughts. He is getting oldish -- at 33 years, he's the third-oldest of the top 20 QBs. Only Manning (34.6) and McNabb (33.11) are older. Even a mature vet like Brees is 2 years younger than Brady. Also, although Brady was a monster in 2007 (4800/50) and very solid in 2009 (4400/28), his pre-Moss years were definitely a step below what people expect now from a stud QB: 3500/24 in 2006, 4100/26 in 2005, 3700/28 in 2004, 3600/23 in 2003, etc. I do think Brady has a 2-4 more years of top-15 production left. But I also think we've seen the high-water mark already, and he's going to start sliding. I don't have him on any teams, but if I did, I'd start to look to grab value now while I can.Interesting stuff.

There are a lot of things embedded in here that are just a bit askew. For starters, all other QBs also had years prior to the recent explosion in terms of yearly totals that pale in comparison. So to single out Brady for having years that weren't as good as the elite guys now is apples and oranges.In terms of total fantasy points scored from 2003 - 2006 (the years cited as being below par), Brady ranked 2nd behind only Manning. He's been a fantasy QB1 (12 team leagues) in the 7 full seasons he's played and ranked in the Top 10 four times before Moss came to town.Brady had his second best fantasy scoring year last year and it's not his fault that QB scoring was way out of whack. Things will correct themselves this year (they always do), and if he puts up the same line as last year he likely will rank much higher than 8th.I would hope we have seen the high water mark for Brady, as he's not going to throw for 50 TD and won't score almost 500 fantasy points in a season again. I don't see any real reason to expect him to start "sliding" as you indicated, as there have been plenty of QBs in their mid to late 30s that have done very well from a fantasy perspective.The only concern I would have is that there is Moss could leave town after this year and Welker's status is a but of a mystery. If there's no football in 2011, Welker could also be gone depending upon how they view contracts. Projected a 35 year old Brady without Moss or Welker would be a challenge.

 

[Lab]

I was all fired up to argue that Brady still has lots of life left, and that NE has managed for years to get Brady plenty of opportunities even with weaker WRs. But when I started gathering evidence to make my argument, I began to have second thoughts. He is getting oldish -- at 33 years, he's the third-oldest of the top 20 QBs. Only Manning (34.6) and McNabb (33.11) are older. Even a mature vet like Brees is 2 years younger than Brady. Also, although Brady was a monster in 2007 (4800/50) and very solid in 2009 (4400/28), his pre-Moss years were definitely a step below what people expect now from a stud QB: 3500/24 in 2006, 4100/26 in 2005, 3700/28 in 2004, 3600/23 in 2003, etc. I do think Brady has a 2-4 more years of top-15 production left. But I also think we've seen the high-water mark already, and he's going to start sliding. I don't have him on any teams, but if I did, I'd start to look to grab value now while I can.

There are a lot of things embedded in here that are just a bit askew. For starters, all other QBs also had years prior to the recent explosion in terms of yearly totals that pale in comparison. So to single out Brady for having years that weren't as good as the elite guys now is apples and oranges. In terms of total fantasy points scored from 2003 - 2006 (the years cited as being below par), Brady ranked 2nd behind only Manning. He's been a fantasy QB1 (12 team leagues) in the 7 full seasons he's played and ranked in the Top 10 four times before Moss came to town. Brady had his second best fantasy scoring year last year and it's not his fault that QB scoring was way out of whack. Things will correct themselves this year (they always do), and if he puts up the same line as last year he likely will rank much higher than 8th. I would hope we have seen the high water mark for Brady, as he's not going to throw for 50 TD and won't score almost 500 fantasy points in a season again. I don't see any real reason to expect him to start "sliding" as you indicated, as there have been plenty of QBs in their mid to late 30s that have done very well from a fantasy perspective.

I hope I didn't suggest that Brady hadn't been great, or that he won't be solid for a few more years. That's not what I intended. I just think that Brady's trade value is inflated some right now, and could begin to decline substantially soon, so now's a good time to move him. I agree with you that yardage/TD totals have increased across the board in recent years. But even if you look at Brady's numbers relative to other QBs, it seems his equilibrium point has been about QB#8-10 (which assumes no drop-off with age). Here is where he scored versus other QBs in the past several years:2009: 7th2008: n/a2007: 1st2006: 7th2005: 2nd2004: 10th2003: 11th2002: 8thI think he's ranked at about QB#4-6 right now, based largely on the strength of 2007 & 2009. Assuming there is football in 2011, I am thinking his value may decline to the QB#8-10 range, with further declines to follow. I guess the question to ask is whether you think the next 2-4 years will look like 2007 & 2005 (1st & 2nd), or instead like 2009, 2006, 2004, etc. (7th-11th). For contrast, here are Manning's points for a similar range of years: 2009: 4th2008: 6th2007: 4th2006: 1st2005: 3rd2004: 2nd2003: 2nd2002: 3rd2001: 3rd2000: 3rdHe's Peyton Manning, and these numbers are incredibly consistent. While it's inevitable that Manning will eventually decline, his equilibrium point seems to be in the 2nd-4th range, which is about where he's currently ranked. With Brady, his finishes have been inconsistent enough that it's tough to tell which Brady we're going to see going forward, IMO.

 

[wolfie]

End of May, trraded for Brady. Only had Flacco as a qb, with Vick and Russell, 12 team, dynasty, ppr, standard scoring league. Traded Desean Jackson and rookie pick 3.03 for Brady, Breaston, and Josh Morgan. Thin at wr now, but loved the value.

 

[sholditch]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

Dealt Brady for Cutler, Forsett, and what looks to be a mid-to-late 2nd in 2011. Other QBs are Rodgers, Kolb, Favre, and Freeman, so felt I could take the risk here. Brady was fetching nothing in a straight up deal for 1st, RB, or WR.

you got completely hosed

 

[Dope]

I recently traded Brady and Leon Washington for Joe Flacco and Felix Jones.

Now my 2 main QB's are Kolb and Flacco.

They are both off the same week, so I may swing Flacco for Sanchez.

I like that I got younger at QB and while I realize that I am totally rolling the dice on Kolb being a superstar, I think it was a calculated risk.

Plus I think Felix Jones is going to be the man in Big D.

I

 

[mozzy84]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?

I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

Dealt Brady for Cutler, Forsett, and what looks to be a mid-to-late 2nd in 2011. Other QBs are Rodgers, Kolb, Favre, and Freeman, so felt I could take the risk here. Brady was fetching nothing in a straight up deal for 1st, RB, or WR.

so just hold onto him then it really shouldn't matter who your backups are. cutler and forsett seems awful at the moment to me.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Brady had his second best fantasy scoring year last year and it's not his fault that QB scoring was way out of whack. Things will correct themselves this year (they always do), and if he puts up the same line as last year he likely will rank much higher than 8th.

This looks like a regress to the mean thing. Which of these guys do you expect to fall?

1 QB  Rodgers, Aaron			   GB  16  350  541 4434   30	7   59   304	 5	 4 395.1 24.69  2 QB  Brees, Drew				  NO  15  363  514 4388   34   11   22	33	 2	 6 359.3 23.95  3 QB  Roethlisberger, Ben		  PIT 15  337  506 4328   26   12   40	80	 2	 3 328.4 21.89  4 QB  Schaub, Matt				 HOU 16  396  583 4770   29   15   48	57	 0	 2 345.2 21.58  5 QB  Manning, Peyton			  IND 16  393  571 4500   33   16   19   -13	 0	 0 339.7 21.23  6 QB  Romo, Tony				   DAL 16  347  550 4483   26	9   35   105	 1	 4 335.7 20.98  7 QB  Favre, Brett				 MIN 16  363  531 4202   33	7	9	 7	 0	 2 335.6 20.97  8 QB  Brady, Tom				   NE  16  371  565 4398   28   13   29	44	 1	 2 329.3 20.58

 

[David Yudkin]

Brady had his second best fantasy scoring year last year and it's not his fault that QB scoring was way out of whack. Things will correct themselves this year (they always do), and if he puts up the same line as last year he likely will rank much higher than 8th.

This looks like a regress to the mean thing. Which of these guys do you expect to fall?

1 QB  Rodgers, Aaron			   GB  16  350  541 4434   30	7   59   304	 5	 4 395.1 24.69  2 QB  Brees, Drew				  NO  15  363  514 4388   34   11   22	33	 2	 6 359.3 23.95  3 QB  Roethlisberger, Ben		  PIT 15  337  506 4328   26   12   40	80	 2	 3 328.4 21.89  4 QB  Schaub, Matt				 HOU 16  396  583 4770   29   15   48	57	 0	 2 345.2 21.58  5 QB  Manning, Peyton			  IND 16  393  571 4500   33   16   19   -13	 0	 0 339.7 21.23  6 QB  Romo, Tony				   DAL 16  347  550 4483   26	9   35   105	 1	 4 335.7 20.98  7 QB  Favre, Brett				 MIN 16  363  531 4202   33	7	9	 7	 0	 2 335.6 20.97  8 QB  Brady, Tom				   NE  16  371  565 4398   28   13   29	44	 1	 2 329.3 20.58

Here's how Brady would have ranked in the past few years had he scored the same amount of points as he did in 2009:08 6th07 4th06 2nd05 1stAs for your question, clearly Big Ben won't be ranking as high this year. I would suggest that Favre won't match the total he put up last year, Peytom may not have to score as much if the defense and Bob Sanders improves, and Schaub also strikes me as a guy that could see his totals slip some.I probably wouldn't draft Brady where he's been getting drafted (well, at least in the leagues I've been involved with) as to me he's been going a little too early. I still think that an NFL team with Brady and Moss on it won't be slipping too much in the scoring department.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The problem with this line of thinking is that perhaps they find a way to acquire a deep threat to replace Moss.

THANK YOU. You might not get a repeat of the 50 TD season without Moss, but Brady will be Brady after Moss, as opposed to, say, Daunte Culpepper.The big question is does married life change his perspective on wanting to play another 5+ years. I've heard nothing to suggest that, and until I do, trading him for a drunken moron like Ben is ridiculous.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

He is getting oldish -- at 33 years, he's the third-oldest of the top 20 QBs. Only Manning (34.6) and McNabb (33.11) are older.

I'm pretty sure he's the 4th-oldest top-20 QB. I'll give you a hint - the oldest starts with "Brett Favr"

 

[mggoilers]

Picked up Brady this offseason. I traded Ben Roethlisberger(pre-rape)/Roddy White for Brady. The other owner needed a WR, and he was way down on Brady after the Brady playoff game.

I quickly replaced Roddy with Fitz. I had the Carolina backs and traded them for Fitz, peace of mind deal knowing I had good young backs already. I finished the season last year with Cutler, and couldn't play him during the playoff weeks. He was gone in my mind week 13 last year, couldn't trust him.

Brady should be at worst if he plays all 16 games, around the 10th QB with a high ceiling.

I'm rolling with this team in a 12 team PPR, keep 6 format.

Tom Brady

Rashard Mendenhall

Beanie Wells

Andre Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Reggie Wayne

 

[SuperFreaks]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

In my 12 Team Dynasty .5 PPR a trade involving Brady went down todayBikini Waxers gave up: Brady, Tom NEP QB;Jones, Thomas KCC RB;Welker, Wes NEP WR;Watson, Ben CLE TEThe Blood Farts gave up: Palmer, Carson CIN QB;Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Harvin, Percy MIN WR;Olsen, Greg CHI TE

 

[Raider Nation]

Anyone move or acquire Brady lately? What did he fetch?I have an offer on the table from someone who wants him, but I'd rather not post details yet since my league reads the board.

In my 12 Team Dynasty .5 PPR a trade involving Brady went down todayBikini Waxers gave up: Brady, Tom NEP QB;Jones, Thomas KCC RB;Welker, Wes NEP WR;Watson, Ben CLE TEThe Blood Farts gave up: Palmer, Carson CIN QB;Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB;Harvin, Percy MIN WR;Olsen, Greg CHI TE

Blood Farts is an appropriate team name. He just got plunger-raped.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Brady had his second best fantasy scoring year last year and it's not his fault that QB scoring was way out of whack. Things will correct themselves this year (they always do), and if he puts up the same line as last year he likely will rank much higher than 8th.

This looks like a regress to the mean thing. Which of these guys do you expect to fall?

1 QB  Rodgers, Aaron			   GB  16  350  541 4434   30	7   59   304	 5	 4 395.1 24.69  2 QB  Brees, Drew				  NO  15  363  514 4388   34   11   22	33	 2	 6 359.3 23.95  3 QB  Roethlisberger, Ben		  PIT 15  337  506 4328   26   12   40	80	 2	 3 328.4 21.89  4 QB  Schaub, Matt				 HOU 16  396  583 4770   29   15   48	57	 0	 2 345.2 21.58  5 QB  Manning, Peyton			  IND 16  393  571 4500   33   16   19   -13	 0	 0 339.7 21.23  6 QB  Romo, Tony				   DAL 16  347  550 4483   26	9   35   105	 1	 4 335.7 20.98  7 QB  Favre, Brett				 MIN 16  363  531 4202   33	7	9	 7	 0	 2 335.6 20.97  8 QB  Brady, Tom				   NE  16  371  565 4398   28   13   29	44	 1	 2 329.3 20.58

I could make an argument for most of these guys falling in 2010.Rodgers - will he get 5 rushing TDs again? Doubtful. Chase (or someone else?) posted stats on rushing TDs for QBs.....odds aren't good he gets more than 2Brees - 34 passing TDs + 2 rushing. That's the most combined TDs in his career. Prior to 2008, 24-28 TDs was his norm.Roethlisberger - 'nuff saidSchaub - Houston won't win if they continue chucking it all game. They need better offensive balanceManning - might be the most likely to repeat...though 4500 yds is 2nd most in his career, ditto for 33 passing TDsRomo - likely to repeatFavre - one of his best seasons ever. At some point, his body will fail him.

 

[*****]

He is getting oldish -- at 33 years, he's the third-oldest of the top 20 QBs. Only Manning (34.6) and McNabb (33.11) are older.

I'm pretty sure he's the 4th-oldest top-20 QB. I'll give you a hint - the oldest starts with "Brett Favr"

I am shocked that the four oldest QBs are among the most successful. Shocked. It must be that good QBs are allowed to grow in to old QBs.I own Brady in a dynasty league and am trying not to over think it. Top QBs can be productive into their mid to late 30s. I figure it's best to let him continue to deliver for another two to three seasons and groom someone behind him.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Once QBs hit 32-33, RBs hit 28ish, and WRs hit 30-31, the typical player's perceived value or trade value seems to drop off a cliff (see Steven Jackson, Brady, Steve Smith, 85, Randy Moss), even though I think most people would agree that these guys still have anywhere from 2-5 years of top 10 production left. If I own any of these guys at this point, I'd rather just assume ride them into the ground than trade them away at fire-sale prices. Brady's value is much higher to my team in the lineup than to my team in terms of what he could bring in with a trade.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

My recent trade was

Brady

Edelman

Welker

for

Cutler

Steve Smith (NYG)

Aromashodu