Historically there's about a 50% turnover in the top 10 RBs from season to season. So who do you think will be out this season?
My league's top 10 scoring RBs last season were:
Alexander
Johnson
Tomlinson
Barber
James
Portis
Jordan
R. Johnson
T. Jones
M. Anderson
Here are the guys that I don't think will be in the top 10 next season:
R. Johnson, T. Jones, M. Anderson, Barber and James
Out:Edgerrin James - O-Line trumps all.
M. Anderson - There's a reason why you've never heard of the "Baltimore Ravens" system. (Note: I think he has a good, but not great, shot at winning the starting job eventually. If Lewis plays as poorly as last year, Anderson will end the season getting the bulk of the carries.)
Lamont Jordan - Come on, this Oakland team is BAD. If it weren't for the receiving numbers as the TDs, Jordan would be a scrub. Meanwhile, in comes Art Shell. No Art Shell RB has ever topped 50 catches, and only one has ever topped 30 (1994, Harvey Williams, 47/391/3). Heck, only two other times did a back break *20* catches. And as for the TDs... Oakland has better weapons in the red zone, if they only start playing like it (*cough cough RANDYMOSS cough*).
Thomas Jones - I waver on this pick a lot. On the one hand, it's hard to see him staying productive in such an anemic offense. On the other hand, it's hard to see the offense staying so anemic with Orton off the field. In the end, I added him since he was so near the bottom of the top-10 anyway.
Alexander - I remember all the criticisms of him, and find it very suspicious that they just disappeared during a contract year. Add to this the touches factor and I'm very nervous about him. (Note: I'd still take him with a top-5 pick, though). (Note #2: I'm equally concerned about LT next year, but I'd take him in the top-5, too. I'd just be more likely to try to trade either player after they started hot and before they got injured/cooled down).
In:
Ron Dayne - I suppose it would be more accurate to steal a page from Tecmo Superbowl and say "RB - Broncos". As of right now, it looks to me like that's going to be Dayne.
Chester Taylor - Minnesota was one of the best running teams in the league a couple of years ago. What happened last year? A shaky RB corps and the loss of Burke/Moss. Childress has shown he's inventive in creating a passing game when playing with less than a full deck, which should keep opposing defenses at least a little bit honest, but on the other hand, he has no McNabb or Culpepper, which should (hopefully) lead to more carries. And if Hutchinson comes to town... forget about it.
Fast Willie Parker - You might notice a trend by now. I'm not only looking at the quality of the player... I'm looking at the franchise's pedigree. Few franchises have as solid of a pedigree running the ball as Pittsburgh, and with the Bus out of town, that's 11 more 1-yard TD plunges to go around (Bettis had 13 and 9 TDs the past 2 seasons- averaged equals 11. Get it?)
Cadillac Williams - I know the final 3 spots are going to be filled by Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Steven "Action" Jackson. In the end, I think Caddy's probably got the worst upside of the 3, and has the least natural talent (both by himself, and in his O-line)... but he also has the most favorable coaching situation. We know Gruden possesses a willingness to pound Williams to a pulp repeatedly throwing him directly into the teeth of the defense until he makes something happen. That's a willingness that I really like to see from the coach of my fantasy RB.
Ronnie Brown - Brown earns the final nod over Jackson because... well, I just don't trust Jackson. He's put up too many headscratchers over the last 2 years, and I'm beginning to grow wary of him. Brown was very impressive, in my opinion, behind a horrible Miami line last season, and with Ricky (likely) out of the picture, hopefully he gets enough touches to be impressive from a fantasy standpoint, too.
Just missing the cut: Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook.
I was strongly debating with myself trying to get Jackson on the list, because I like Linehan and I think he'll mean good things for the Rams ground game, but I'm a little bit gunshy after getting burned twice now by Jackson. I love Westbrook, but hate Andy Reid. If Reid showed a Gruden-like willingness to throw his back to the wolves, I'd think Westy would be a top-5 back, easy.
I like James and Barber to remain in the top 10.
Denver always has a good running game, their blocking style compliments Dayne very well and he looked pretty good in limited action last season.
That is unheard of. For guys to have close to 400 touches more than 2 years in a row is pretty rare. I think the wheels come off that buss this year.....There is more to this prediction than luck should it come true....
Edge? Nah, I see him squeaking into the Top 10 again this year, but barely. His numbers will drop off, but I don't think he'll drop off as much as many think (fear).
