Top 20 Value Picks in PPR (1 Viewer)

[footballman_696969]

Going by PPR ADP, which 20 players do you feel offer the best value?

Here is my list:

20) Jermichael Finley - TE 5, 57 overall - I'm sure many will disagree with this, but I see Finley battling Clark for the best TE in fantasy football.

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy.

18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late.

17) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR32, 90 overall - Dissapointed for fantasy owners who drafted him last year, but is now going later and offers some value.

16) John Carlson - TE 17, 146 overall - Very consistant and solid TE.

15) David Garrard - QB 22, 151 overall - Doesn't have the most upside in the world, but he should be a very good QB2.

14) Heath Miller - TE 15, 143 overall - Losing Holmes should mean more work for Heath.

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush.

12) Brandon Jacobs - RB 29, 73 overall - I think the injury sustained in week one is the reason why Jacobs played like crap last year. I love Bradshaw, but I think people are forgetting just how awesome Jacobs is. He averaged 5.0 yards/carry on 200 rushes two years in a row. He's a big bruiser with deceptive speed. I expect the y/c and the tds to increase from last year now that he is healthy.

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

10) Santana Moss - WR 30, 84 overall - McNabb should help Moss boost his numbers.

9) Steve Smith (CAR) - WR 14, 39 overall - This is assuming that SS is ready to play by week one.

8) LaDanian Tomlinson - RB 44, 116 overall - LT2 is clearly a shell of his former self, but he's on the best rushing team in the league and should get a decent amount of catches and goaline carries.

7) Joseph Addai - RB 20, 46 overall - Once again Addai is undervalued. He should be the main guy in Indy due to his blocking and receiving skills.

6) Jahvid Best - RB 23, 52 overall - I expect Best to a be a stud in PPR leagues.

5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot.

4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year.

3) Chad Ochocinco - WR19, 53 overall - I see no reason why Ocho won't match last years numbers.

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year.

1) Michael Bush - RB 45, 121 overall - I love what I've seen from Bush and fully expect him to win the starting job this year.

I purposely left Brett Favre off my list for obvious reasons.

 

[TaxMan]

Going by PPR ADP, which 20 players do you feel offer the best value?

Here is my list:

20) Jermichael Finley - TE 5, 57 overall - I'm sure many will disagree with this, but I see Finley battling Clark for the best TE in fantasy football.

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy.

18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late.

17) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR32, 90 overall - Dissapointed for fantasy owners who drafted him last year, but is now going later and offers some value.

16) John Carlson - TE 17, 146 overall - Very consistant and solid TE.

15) David Garrard - QB 22, 151 overall - Doesn't have the most upside in the world, but he should be a very good QB2.

14) Heath Miller - TE 15, 143 overall - Losing Holmes should mean more work for Heath.

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush.

12) Brandon Jacobs - RB 29, 73 overall - I think the injury sustained in week one is the reason why Jacobs played like crap last year. I love Bradshaw, but I think people are forgetting just how awesome Jacobs is. He averaged 5.0 yards/carry on 200 rushes two years in a row. He's a big bruiser with deceptive speed. I expect the y/c and the tds to increase from last year now that he is healthy.

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

10) Santana Moss - WR 30, 84 overall - McNabb should help Moss boost his numbers.

9) Steve Smith (CAR) - WR 14, 39 overall - This is assuming that SS is ready to play by week one.

8) LaDanian Tomlinson - RB 44, 116 overall - LT2 is clearly a shell of his former self, but he's on the best rushing team in the league and should get a decent amount of catches and goaline carries.

7) Joseph Addai - RB 20, 46 overall - Once again Addai is undervalued. He should be the main guy in Indy due to his blocking and receiving skills.

6) Jahvid Best - RB 23, 52 overall - I expect Best to a be a stud in PPR leagues.

5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot.

4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year.

3) Chad Ochocinco - WR19, 53 overall - I see no reason why Ocho won't match last years numbers.

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year.

1) Michael Bush - RB 45, 121 overall - I love what I've seen from Bush and fully expect him to win the starting job this year.

I purposely left Brett Favre off my list for obvious reasons.

I like Jacoby, Schilens, Reggie Bush, Santana Moss, Steve Smith CAR, Best and Michael Bush out of your list to possibly outdo their ADP.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Jets have said LT will fill the role Leon Washington filled. If they mean that literally, Washington averaged 5 carries and 2-3 receptions a game and a TD every 3-4 games. However, I don't see LT with a 5.2 ypc like Washington had over the past 3 seasons.

 

[footballman_696969]

The Jets have said LT will fill the role Leon Washington filled. If they mean that literally, Washington averaged 5 carries and 2-3 receptions a game and a TD every 3-4 games. However, I don't see LT with a 5.2 ypc like Washington had over the past 3 seasons.

New York Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson could have a similar role to former RB Leon Washington within the team's offense, according to Rich Cimini, of ESPNNewYork.com. Although it is assumed Tomlinson will play a complimentary role to RB Shonn Greene, playing time will be determined, in large part, by game situations and matchups. 'It depends on the flow of the game,' running backs coach Anthony Lynn said. 'If we're better off in our big personnel, Shonn will get more touches. If we go little, like we did last year with Leon (Washington) in our nickel package, L.T. will get more touches. It's all situational.' Lynn compared the situation to the Washington-Thomas Jones tandem last season. If that's the case, the workloads will be fairly close to even.Last season Leon averaged about 11 carries/game and 2.5 cathes/game before getting injured. He did not score any touchdowns, but I definately expect the Jets to use LT in the redzone more than they used Leon Washington.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

QUOTE (footballman_696969 @ Jun 27 2010, 12:31 PM)

Going by PPR ADP, which 20 players do you feel offer the best value?

Here is my list:

20) Jermichael Finley - TE 5, 57 overall - I'm sure many will disagree with this, but I see Finley battling Clark for the best TE in fantasy football.

Agreed. He will be a major force this year, although his ADP is moving up into the 4/5 turn area

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy.

18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late.

17) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR32, 90 overall - Dissapointed for fantasy owners who drafted him last year, but is now going later and offers some value.

16) John Carlson - TE 17, 146 overall - Very consistant and solid TE.

15) David Garrard - QB 22, 151 overall - Doesn't have the most upside in the world, but he should be a very good QB2.

14) Heath Miller - TE 15, 143 overall - Losing Holmes should mean more work for Heath.

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush.

Definite. He is a bargain at this point. I expect his ADP to rise into the 4/5 turn at worst come August.

12) Brandon Jacobs - RB 29, 73 overall - I think the injury sustained in week one is the reason why Jacobs played like crap last year. I love Bradshaw, but I think people are forgetting just how awesome Jacobs is. He averaged 5.0 yards/carry on 200 rushes two years in a row. He's a big bruiser with deceptive speed. I expect the y/c and the tds to increase from last year now that he is healthy.

Disagree. He is a semi non factor receiving which dampens his value.

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

10) Santana Moss - WR 30, 84 overall - McNabb should help Moss boost his numbers.

His ADP reflects the expectation of a possible 4 game suspension over the HGH issue IMO.

9) Steve Smith (CAR) - WR 14, 39 overall - This is assuming that SS is ready to play by week one.

Yes. In an early draft ongoing, he fell to the 4.12 which is outrageous value. I unfortunately didnt get him which sux

8) LaDanian Tomlinson - RB 44, 116 overall - LT2 is clearly a shell of his former self, but he's on the best rushing team in the league and should get a decent amount of catches and goaline carries.

7) Joseph Addai - RB 20, 46 overall - Once again Addai is undervalued. He should be the main guy in Indy due to his blocking and receiving skills.

6) Jahvid Best - RB 23, 52 overall - I expect Best to a be a stud in PPR leagues.

Agreed. Got him at 52 right at ADP and think its a big value IMO.

5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot.

Yes. Missed out on him as well. Went mid 5th.

4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year.

Agree, BUT...current ADP projections are way off. He went at the 6/7 turn, which still represents some good value if VJAX no-shows.

3) Chad Ochocinco - WR19, 53 overall - I see no reason why Ocho won't match last years numbers.

Has moved up into the late 4th area

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year.

1) Michael Bush - RB 45, 121 overall - I love what I've seen from Bush and fully expect him to win the starting job this year.

People are dillusional if they think they are going to get him at this ADP. Is already moving upward.

Overall, nice read.

 

[Gopher State]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

 

[AngryPatriot]

Fred Jackson could be nice, A Gonzalez is one to watch, Spiller?, Maroney (yes, I said it), Keller, James Jones... to name a few...

And that is weak and pointless to predict injuries.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

Classy as always, Johnny.

come on now. Is predicting injuries and that he plays for the linons makes him overrated?

 

[gianmarco]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

Classy as always, Johnny.

Maybe Moonlight_Graham needs to head on in here to help back this up....

 

[Steed]

Anyone seen Green Apple Splatter?

 

[the spanker]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

Classy as always, Johnny.

come on now. Is predicting injuries and that he plays for the linons makes him overrated?

Predicting injuries is no different than predicting stats. Just because you choose to evaluate a player one way doesn't mean that any other type of evaluation is wrong.

Your here right?

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

In PPR, for games he was a Chief last year, Chambers was WR19 ... and Bowe played in five of those nine games. Chambers could make an impact this season at a great price. He is on my sleeper lists

 

[mrip541]

If VJax sits out Antonio Gates is going to EXPLODE. Like T1 receiver explode.

 

[SoopaCee]

MATT FORTE!!!

but i do agree with:

20) Jermichael Finley - TE 5, 57 overall - I'm sure many will disagree with this, but I see Finley battling Clark for the best TE in fantasy football.

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy.

17) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR32, 90 overall - Dissapointed for fantasy owners who drafted him last year, but is now going later and offers some value.

16) John Carlson - TE 17, 146 overall - Very consistant and solid TE.

14) Heath Miller - TE 15, 143 overall - Losing Holmes should mean more work for Heath.

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush.

9) Steve Smith (CAR) - WR 14, 39 overall - This is assuming that SS is ready to play by week one.

7) Joseph Addai - RB 20, 46 overall - Once again Addai is undervalued. He should be the main guy in Indy due to his blocking and receiving skills.

6) Jahvid Best - RB 23, 52 overall - I expect Best to a be a stud in PPR leagues.

5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot.

3) Chad Ochocinco - WR19, 53 overall - I see no reason why Ocho won't match last years numbers.

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year.

1) Michael Bush - RB 45, 121 overall - I love what I've seen from Bush and fully expect him to win the starting job this year.

 

[footballman_696969]

Fred Jackson could be nice, A Gonzalez is one to watch, Spiller?, Maroney (yes, I said it), Keller, James Jones... to name a few...And that is weak and pointless to predict injuries.

Too much competition for Gonzo.. I'm staying away from him as of right now. I love Spillers talent, but again he's got too much competition with Fred Jackson and Lynch in Buffalo. I was on the Maroney bandwagon the last few years, but I've decided to give up on him... The Patriots just don't seem to trust him to carry a full load for a full season. I like Keller, but I don't think he represents any serious value where he is going. I actually like Heath Miller and John Carlson better than Keller and they go later than he does. I've always been a fan of James Jones and I will be monitoring the Driver situation carefully.

 

[footballman_696969]

In PPR, for games he was a Chief last year, Chambers was WR19 ... and Bowe played in five of those nine games. Chambers could make an impact this season at a great price. He is on my sleeper lists

I think that Chambers has become the fogotten man because he's behind Dwayne Bowe and there is a ton of hype surrounding Jamaal Charles and the new addition of McCluster. I think he should post solid numbers and have no problem outproducing his draft position.

 

[footballman_696969]

If VJax sits out Antonio Gates is going to EXPLODE. Like T1 receiver explode.

He's already the second TE off the board so I'm not sure how much value he will be even if VJAX sits. I'm also concerned about the toe issue.. I'm keeping a close watch on that.

 

[footballman_696969]

MATT FORTE!!!

I'm a little iffy on Forte right now.. I'm still not exactly sure what role Chester Taylor will be playing and how much he will be eating into Forte's numbers. He is the 24th RB off the board and right now I have him around RB25.. I could easily see him creeping up my draft board come August though.

 

[footballman_696969]

One guy that I missed is Jabar Gaffney. He is currently at WR 63 and 175 overall on this list. I don't see any reason why he won't be great value at that spot. He's not the sexiest pick and that's probably why he is so low... Should be good value this year.

 

[footballman_696969]

I've been playing around on http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/ and I completed 6 mock drafts in the last week. Here are the players that I ended up with multiple times.

Twice

Eli Manning - He can be had in the middle rounds and should be a top ten QB. I also think he has a chance to crack the top 5 this year with the weapons he has to work with.

Ben Roethlisburger - Obviously he will miss four games, but he can be had very late, and I expect him to get back on track once he gets on the field. I think he offers good value as a backup or depth guy.

Steven Jackson - The injuries scare me, but this guy is so awesome in PPR leagues.

Javid Best - I love him, but I expect his ADP to rise after people see what he can do in preseason.

Caddilac Williams - He's a good flex player or depth guy to have.

Reggie Bush - I think he will have a bounce back year as long as he can stay healthy.

Steve Smith - Love SS... I think he will be top 10 no problem and has a chance to crack the top 5 as well.

Hines Ward - Undervalued every year..

Chad Ocho Cinco - Not sure why he doesn't go higher.. I see no reason why he won't match last years numbers.

Chris Chambers - He goes so late... He should have no problem outproducing his draft position.

Zach Miller - Always liked his talent and now he has a real QB to throw him the ball.

Heath Miller - I'm not sure why he goes so late after coming of a career season.

Three Times

Deangelo Williams - I have him ranked as the 7th best RB in PPR

Joseph Addai - Undervalued once again this year

Pierre Thomas - I think hes good value in the late 2nd/early 3rd

Michael Bush - I fully expect him to win the starting job

Santana Moss - McNabb should help Moss post nice numbers this year

Derrick Mason - The addition of Boldin has helped make Mason a very good value play this season

Jermichael Finley - I love this guy.. I expect him to battle with Clark as the top TE.

Four Times

David Garrard - I usually get him after 20 or so QBs are off the board... I think thats awesome value. I usually grab him as my back up QB very late which allows me to load up on other positions.

Chaz Schillens - I love his talent and now he has a real QB.. Just has to stay healthy

T.J. Houshmanzadeh - People are down on him after he went so high last year and didn't perform up to expectations.

Six Times

Jabar Gaffney - I got this guy in every draft I did... He is flying under the radar right now. Someone has to catch balls in Denver.

 

[KellysHeroes]

If that list is dynasty then

Matthews is a steal at 28... Greene and Grant over him? Must be Re-draft

Boldin at WR15 is a little low IMO.

Forsett at RB29 is a steal in PPR

Bradshaw at RB34 is another steal

Hester should out-produce WR38

Carlson should be a couple spots higher than TE13

Love Campbell as a QB3 and QB27

B Watson as a TE3 or 4 is a great Low risk high reward type

 

[moderated]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

2007: missed 3 games with hip injury2008: missed spring practices with hip injury, also dislocated left elbow and missed time.2009: foot and elbow surgeries in the offseason. Missed preseason time with toe injury. Concussions causing him to miss end of season.He also missed time in high school with various injuries. I'm not about predicting future injuries but his past does paint the picture of a fragile gimp.

 

[smackdaddies]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

2007: missed 3 games with hip injury2008: missed spring practices with hip injury, also dislocated left elbow and missed time.2009: foot and elbow surgeries in the offseason. Missed preseason time with toe injury. Concussions causing him to miss end of season.He also missed time in high school with various injuries. I'm not about predicting future injuries but his past does paint the picture of a fragile gimp.

I generally really hate when people "predict" injuries when prognosticating, but this is a good example of when a player is going to have to prove they can make a season

 

[Pictus Cat]

fragile gimp.

LOL, passed on Best in dynasty league. Detroit is getting better, but I think the NFC north with be golfing this year, BEST ball.

 

[footballman_696969]

If that list is dynasty thenMatthews is a steal at 28... Greene and Grant over him? Must be Re-draftBoldin at WR15 is a little low IMO.Forsett at RB29 is a steal in PPRBradshaw at RB34 is another stealHester should out-produce WR38Carlson should be a couple spots higher than TE13Love Campbell as a QB3 and QB27B Watson as a TE3 or 4 is a great Low risk high reward type

Yes I should have made it clear that this is for redraft.I'm a big Anquan Boldin fan, but I have him ranked right around where he is going in drafts. I don't think he offers too much value this year. I really like Forsett, but I'm waiting for the situation to clear up in Seattle before I decide how good of value he will be. Are they going to trade for Marshawn Lynch? Will they cut Julius Jones? Is Leon Washington going to be ready for the opener?I like Bradshaw, but I expect him to take a back seat to Jacobs who will be healthy this year.I actually forgot about Hester, and think he will be good value this year. He should definately out-produce WR38.I also like Campbell as a QB3.

 

[tazinib1]

Johnny Knox

 

[senor peso 2006]

I see Best missing many game due to injuries and it doesn't help he plays for the lions. Most overrated rookie in a L O N G TIME

I didn't know one could predict injuries so easily. You have any lottery numbers for me?

2007: missed 3 games with hip injury2008: missed spring practices with hip injury, also dislocated left elbow and missed time.2009: foot and elbow surgeries in the offseason. Missed preseason time with toe injury. Concussions causing him to miss end of season.He also missed time in high school with various injuries. I'm not about predicting future injuries but his past does paint the picture of a fragile gimp.

I generally really hate when people "predict" injuries when prognosticating, but this is a good example of when a player is going to have to prove they can make a season

I hope Best can stay healthy, but the concussion has me concerned. That was a nasty fall he took and once you start down the trail of concussions you only become more susceptible receiving more and that will move him down my draft chart based on risk/reward.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

If VJax sits out Antonio Gates is going to EXPLODE. Like T1 receiver explode.

I think this logic is flawed. Having a WR that can stretch the field like VJax does nothing but help Gates. Less weapons means more focus on Gates by the defense. It may mean that he will have a few more opportunities but I think the open space that he will be giving up will be override the extra chances in the scoring category. That being said, he is a beast and I wouldn't hesitate to draft Gates if the price were right.

 

[the spanker]

What's everyone's thoughts on Percy Harvin? With Chester gone he should be even more involved in the offense assuming Farve returns. Migraines have to be factored in but the guy gets a lot of touches.

Thoughts?

 

[socrates]

Good analysis and posting. Here are my takes on each:

20) Jermichael Finley - TE 5, 57 overall - I'm sure many will disagree with this, but I see Finley battling Clark for the best TE in fantasy football. I understand where you are coming from, and perhaps Finley will outperform a #5 ranking, but Finley is no longer a value pick. For a value pick at the TE position, I would opt for a guy like Zach Miller (the Oakland variety) or roll the dice on Jared Cook.

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy. I agree Schilens could be a good value pick, as could Heyward-Bey. Either one could step up. Schilens has to prove he can remain on the field. Heyward-Bey has to prove he can hang onto the ball.

18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late. I am not sure he will be much more than a bye week replacement-type player, but you could do worse, and at his ADP, he represents potential value.

17) T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR32, 90 overall - Dissapointed for fantasy owners who drafted him last year, but is now going later and offers some value. I can foresee an improvement in Seattle’s offense, and perhaps Housh will return to his previous form. At WR 32, he is a very good value.

16) John Carlson - TE 17, 146 overall - Very consistant and solid TE. Carlson should easily finish higher than TE 17. Good value.

15) David Garrard - QB 22, 151 overall - Doesn't have the most upside in the world, but he should be a very good QB2. Garrard is a mid fantasy QB2. Last season, he finished at QB 16 in my PPR league. I don’t see him finishing any higher than that, but 22 may be a tad low.

14) Heath Miller - TE 15, 143 overall - Losing Holmes should mean more work for Heath. I don’t see Miller finishing much lower than his TE 8 finish last season.

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush. Bush is going to get touches, regardless of who is starting. Last season, he finished RB 29. I personally think RB 25 is about right, but he has the potential to produce even more.

12) Brandon Jacobs - RB 29, 73 overall - I think the injury sustained in week one is the reason why Jacobs played like crap last year. I love Bradshaw, but I think people are forgetting just how awesome Jacobs is. He averaged 5.0 yards/carry on 200 rushes two years in a row. He's a big bruiser with deceptive speed. I expect the y/c and the tds to increase from last year now that he is healthy. Jacobs deserves to be slightly higher than RB 29, perhaps, but not too much value here in PPR format.

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot. Chris Chambers showed me way more than I expected once he landed in KC. Honestly, I am sold on neither Chambers nor Bowe, but someone has to catch the ball in KC. I don’t see Chambers as a value pick.

10) Santana Moss - WR 30, 84 overall - McNabb should help Moss boost his numbers. I will be surprised if Moss does not exceed WR 30. Good value.

9) Steve Smith (CAR) - WR 14, 39 overall - This is assuming that SS is ready to play by week one. I suspect Smith is being valued considerably lower than WR14 in most leagues now. He should be a good value pick.

8) LaDanian Tomlinson - RB 44, 116 overall - LT2 is clearly a shell of his former self, but he's on the best rushing team in the league and should get a decent amount of catches and goaline carries. I am not sold on Greene. LT2 could get more work than many are predicting.

7) Joseph Addai - RB 20, 46 overall - Once again Addai is undervalued. He should be the main guy in Indy due to his blocking and receiving skills. I also really like Addai, but Donald Brown is no slouch, and he may take over much of the goalline and short yardage work. RB 20 may be too low, but I would be hesitant to take him too much higher.

6) Jahvid Best - RB 23, 52 overall - I expect Best to a be a stud in PPR leagues. Best has the opportunity and skillset to be an uberstud. His lack of size and propensity to get injured worry me. That said, I would not rank 22 other RBs ahead of Best in a PPR format. Spiller also has the potential to outperform his draft position.

5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot. Ward has always been an overachiever, and I suspect he will once again prove to outperform his ranking.

4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year. With Jackson’s contract situation and suspension looming and Gates’ lingering foot injury, Floyd should begin the season as Rivers’ primary WR target, and like you say, even with the return of Vjax, Floyd should easily outperform his draft position. Good value pick.

3) Chad Ochocinco - WR19, 53 overall - I see no reason why Ocho won't match last years numbers. Ochocinco finished last season slightly higher than his current #19 ranking, but I am not so sure he will be much of a value at his ADP.

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year. Mason will be relegated to #2 with the addition of Boldin AND Baltimore will rely heavily on the run. Mason may exceed WR 43, but not by much in my estimation.

1) Michael Bush - RB 45, 121 overall - I love what I've seen from Bush and fully expect him to win the starting job this year. Bush is a hard one to get a read on. If he wins the RB duties outright, he is obviously tremendous value at his ADP (the same may be said of McFadden). However, I foresee a RBBC situation brewing in Oakland. Either way, he should be worth at least his draft ranking with potential to be much more.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I'd add Favre, Cutler, Eli, and McNabb at the QB position. These are all guys that can be had pretty late, after the "big 7" (Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Schaub, Romo, Rivers) and Kolb are all gone.

Agree on Michael Bush and Forsett.

I also think an extremely undervalued pair is Edelman/Welker. In PPR leagues, Welker is currently WR28 and Edelman is WR43. I don't think these guys will have value on the field at the same time together, meaning that I see Edelman pretty exclusively in the slot role early on, and then Welker similarly exclusively in the slot role when he's back to full strength. The Pats have proven that their slot WR is a top 10 PPR guy, so locking up that role at these prices is great value IMO.

 

[footballman_696969]

I'd like to add Pierre Thomas to the list as well... He is currently going as RB17 and I have him ranked at RB10. I think he'll be good value this year.. I've been getting him in the late 2nd - late 3rd of mock drafts.

I also like Cedric Benson... He's at RB18 on the list and I have him ranked at RB11, right under Pierre Thomas.

S.Moss has dropped to WR32 on the new ADP... He should beat that easily.

I'm toying with the idea of grabbing both Portis and Larry Johnson... They currently have ADPs of RB45 and RB57.

LT2 has dropped to RB46.. I like him as a RB4.

I just love Schilens (WR54), Gaffney (WR58), and Chambers (WR63) as depth guys.

I also like the idea of grabbing both Walter (WR59) and Jacoby (WR66) in the later rounds.

My super sleeper right now is Sammie Stroughter... He doesn't even appear on the ADP list.

 

[footballman_696969]

I also think an extremely undervalued pair is Edelman/Welker. In PPR leagues, Welker is currently WR28 and Edelman is WR43. I don't think these guys will have value on the field at the same time together, meaning that I see Edelman pretty exclusively in the slot role early on, and then Welker similarly exclusively in the slot role when he's back to full strength. The Pats have proven that their slot WR is a top 10 PPR guy, so locking up that role at these prices is great value IMO.

I purposely left these guys off the list because their ADPs will probably change depending on how quickly Welker recovers. I am keeping an eye on the situation though.

 

[footballman_696969]

Am I crazy to think Housh is really good value this year? I don't see him putting up worse numbers than he did last year, when he finished as WR25. He is currently at WR33 on the ADP list. I think that he went so high last year and dissapointed so many owners that he actually represents good value now.

 

[thriftyrocker]

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy. 18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late.5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot. 4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year.

I agree with all these. In a non-PPR 12-team mock I did for an article, I landed all 4 - Schilens at 13.1, Jacoby at 14.12, Ward at 6.12, and Floyd at 10.12.Other guys I thought were good value compared to ADP Foster at 11.1 (ADP 149) - Great value given he is currently the starter. In this draft, someone handcuffed Slaton and Tate using 6.4 and 7.9 but then let Foster drop.Holmes at 8.12 (ADP 101) - Best WR on the Jets. Should be a solid WR2 after his suspension is over. Pair him with Edelman or Floyd and you've got a WR2 for the cost of a WR3 and 5.

 

[footballman_696969]

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy. 18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late.5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot. 4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year.

I agree with all these. In a non-PPR 12-team mock I did for an article, I landed all 4 - Schilens at 13.1, Jacoby at 14.12, Ward at 6.12, and Floyd at 10.12.Other guys I thought were good value compared to ADP Foster at 11.1 (ADP 149) - Great value given he is currently the starter. In this draft, someone handcuffed Slaton and Tate using 6.4 and 7.9 but then let Foster drop.Holmes at 8.12 (ADP 101) - Best WR on the Jets. Should be a solid WR2 after his suspension is over. Pair him with Edelman or Floyd and you've got a WR2 for the cost of a WR3 and 5.

I'm not touching the Houston situation until I see what happens in TC/Preseason... I actually don't see Holmes as anything close to a WR2 this year... The Jets aren't going to pass the ball very much and even when they do pass the ball, their are too many mouths to feed for anyone guy to be a solid WR2.

 

[socrates]

19) Chaz Schilens - WR 56, 150 overall - Best receiving option on the Raiders... Just has to stay healthy.

18) Jacoby Jones - WR 67, 188 overall - Going to be competing for the starting job opposite AJ and can be had super late.

5) Hines Ward - WR 23, 62 overall - Hines Ward never gets any respect in fantasy football. I draft him every year and every year he outperforms his draft slot.

4) Malcolm Floyd - WR 60, 167 overall - I'm not sure why Floyd is going so low in drafts.. I expect him to be better than WR 60 even if VJAX plays 16 games this year.

I agree with all these. In a non-PPR 12-team mock I did for an article, I landed all 4 - Schilens at 13.1, Jacoby at 14.12, Ward at 6.12, and Floyd at 10.12.Other guys I thought were good value compared to ADP

Foster at 11.1 (ADP 149) - Great value given he is currently the starter. In this draft, someone handcuffed Slaton and Tate using 6.4 and 7.9 but then let Foster drop.

Holmes at 8.12 (ADP 101) - Best WR on the Jets. Should be a solid WR2 after his suspension is over. Pair him with Edelman or Floyd and you've got a WR2 for the cost of a WR3 and 5.

I'm not touching the Houston situation until I see what happens in TC/Preseason... I actually don't see Holmes as anything close to a WR2 this year... The Jets aren't going to pass the ball very much and even when they do pass the ball, their are too many mouths to feed for anyone guy to be a solid WR2.

I am with you there. There is a lot of speculation about who will emerge as the starter in Houston, and right now I don't think there is a clear-cut frontrunner. If I had to guess, I would wager on Tate getting the lion's share of the work, but a good case may be made for either Foster or Slaton.

 

[thriftyrocker]

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush.

I think Bush's role is pretty clearly defined, and that will limit his upside a lot. I think you are getting what you you pay for at that ADP - a part-time player who will mostly get points through receptions. I would rather take Spiller at that stage of the draft; similar player and similar downside but there's more of a chance Spiller gets handed the reins and becomes a full-time back. Even if Thomas goes down, Hamilton will get carries and they will try and keep Bush healthy for January.

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

I think you have to be betting on Bowe failing to take Chambers. If Bowe is better than last year, it's going to take a pretty big KC resurgence for Chambers to be worth anything. (That might be a good bet given the HGH suspension last year and "importing girls" interview this year, but it's the bet you're making.)

10) Santana Moss - WR 30, 84 overall - McNabb should help Moss boost his numbers.

I agree McNabb will help. But I don't buy into a resurgence. WR30 seems about right. I think Thomas is a bigger bargain in round 11 or 12. I trust Thomas less, but his upside is the same.

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year.

He only had 73 receptions last year. Big reason he outperformed ADP last year was he managed 7 TDs, more than he had since he was in Tennessee (2004). I don't see that happening again. If his TDs come back down to earth and his receptions even drop 10-15% due to Boldin, he becomes worthless bench fodder. There's a ton of upside guys I'd rather gamble on.

 

[socrates]

Hasselbeck at QB 29 appears to be a potential bargain. I am not buying into the Whitehurst hype. Barring injury, I foresee Hasselbeck leading the Seahawks all season.

Montario Hardesty at RB 38 is a potential value pick. Hardesty is a complete back, and while Harrison will certainly get his touches, I expect Hardesty to be the main guy in the Cleveland backfield.

Cadillac Williams is a steal at RB 36. He finished last season at RB 25, and there is no reason to think he will not repeat about the same this season.

Lee Evans has been a disappointment over the last several seasons, but I fully expect him to outperform his WR 44 ranking. With TO gone, Evans should step into the role of WR1 for the Bills, and even last season with TO present, Evans finished higher than WR 44.

 

[footballman_696969]

13) Reggie Bush - RB 25, 59 overall - I think he was slowed down by injuries last year.. I liked what I saw in the playoffs. The loss of Mike Bell should also lead to more touches for Bush.

I think Bush's role is pretty clearly defined, and that will limit his upside a lot. I think you are getting what you you pay for at that ADP - a part-time player who will mostly get points through receptions. I would rather take Spiller at that stage of the draft; similar player and similar downside but there's more of a chance Spiller gets handed the reins and becomes a full-time back. Even if Thomas goes down, Hamilton will get carries and they will try and keep Bush healthy for January.

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

I think you have to be betting on Bowe failing to take Chambers. If Bowe is better than last year, it's going to take a pretty big KC resurgence for Chambers to be worth anything. (That might be a good bet given the HGH suspension last year and "importing girls" interview this year, but it's the bet you're making.)

10) Santana Moss - WR 30, 84 overall - McNabb should help Moss boost his numbers.

I agree McNabb will help. But I don't buy into a resurgence. WR30 seems about right. I think Thomas is a bigger bargain in round 11 or 12. I trust Thomas less, but his upside is the same.

2) Derrick Mason - WR 43, 117 overall - I expect Boldin to eat into Masons numbers, but WR43 seems way too low to me. Flacco feels comfortable with Mason and should still target him a lot this year.

He only had 73 receptions last year. Big reason he outperformed ADP last year was he managed 7 TDs, more than he had since he was in Tennessee (2004). I don't see that happening again. If his TDs come back down to earth and his receptions even drop 10-15% due to Boldin, he becomes worthless bench fodder. There's a ton of upside guys I'd rather gamble on.

Bush = limited upside??? Are you saying its not possible for him to catch 80-90 balls like he was doing in his first three years? I"m not saying that its likely, but its definately a possibility... I think he was more hurt last year than he let on. The knee was bothering him and the Saints figured they could let him rest until the playoffs since they had Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell who were more than capable.Bowe would have to fail for Chambers to be better than WR58? I'd say that even if Bowe performs very well, Chambers will still be a top 40 WR. If Bowe fails, then he will be even better.Moss usually peforms around WR20-30 on a PPG basis and that was with Jason Campbell at QB. I expect him to be better with McNabb at the helm and therefore he represents good value at WR30. I also like Devin Thomas, but I don't think that its a given that he beats out Kelly for the #2 job. I will be keeping a close eye on that situation.Even if Masons receptions drop 10% and his TDs come back down to earth, then he is still putting up numbers around 65/850/5 which would still make him good value if you take him around WR43. Plus lets not forget that Mason and Flacco have great chemistry and Anquan Boldin is very injury prone.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

I think you have to be betting on Bowe failing to take Chambers. If Bowe is better than last year, it's going to take a pretty big KC resurgence for Chambers to be worth anything. (That might be a good bet given the HGH suspension last year and "importing girls" interview this year, but it's the bet you're making.)

I'm not sure it's that far off, reviewing the plus's and minus's affecting the KC passing game. Assuming a 2nd year of growth w/ Cassell, new offensive coordinator, most likely a better than average running game, rookie (or a crappy) TE, inconsistent WR1 in Bowe and a less than average defense. SOMEONE is getting the passes and there's a lot of value in the Chambers at that ADP. For the sake of discussion, I left off McCluster in the slot.

 

[footballman_696969]

Hasselbeck at QB 29 appears to be a potential bargain. I am not buying into the Whitehurst hype. Barring injury, I foresee Hasselbeck leading the Seahawks all season.Montario Hardesty at RB 38 is a potential value pick. Hardesty is a complete back, and while Harrison will certainly get his touches, I expect Hardesty to be the main guy in the Cleveland backfield.Cadillac Williams is a steal at RB 36. He finished last season at RB 25, and there is no reason to think he will not repeat about the same this season.Lee Evans has been a disappointment over the last several seasons, but I fully expect him to outperform his WR 44 ranking. With TO gone, Evans should step into the role of WR1 for the Bills, and even last season with TO present, Evans finished higher than WR 44.

I actually missed Hasselbeck... I like him as a QB3 this year.I'm staying away from the Cleveland RB situation until I see what unfolds in TC/PreseasonI actually like Caddy as well... another guy that I missed. He should be a good RB3/4 this year.Lee Evans definately represents value at WR44, but I just have a hard time getting excited about a Buffalo WR.

 

[David Yudkin]

Hasselbeck at QB 29 appears to be a potential bargain. I am not buying into the Whitehurst hype. Barring injury, I foresee Hasselbeck leading the Seahawks all season.

Hasselbeck ranked 27th over the past two seasons in terms of fantasy PPG for QB that played in at least 10 games. I'm not sure he has the upside that he did earlier in his career.

 

[the spanker]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned James Jones in this discussion. Guy is looking like the real deal, in pass happy oriented O and Driver having dual knee off-season surgeries. In all the mock drafts I've been in so far I've taken him last round.

I guess people still feel Driver, like Ward will outproduce his ADP.

 

[thriftyrocker]

11) Chris Chambers - WR 58, 164 overall - I'm not in love with Chambers by any means, but he shouldn't have any problem outproducing this draft slot.

I think you have to be betting on Bowe failing to take Chambers. If Bowe is better than last year, it's going to take a pretty big KC resurgence for Chambers to be worth anything. (That might be a good bet given the HGH suspension last year and "importing girls" interview this year, but it's the bet you're making.)

I'm not sure it's that far off, reviewing the plus's and minus's affecting the KC passing game. Assuming a 2nd year of growth w/ Cassell, new offensive coordinator, most likely a better than average running game, rookie (or a crappy) TE, inconsistent WR1 in Bowe and a less than average defense. SOMEONE is getting the passes and there's a lot of value in the Chambers at that ADP. For the sake of discussion, I left off McCluster in the slot.

I think there will be a small resurgence. Outside of Charles, they weren't good at all last year. They could be middle of the pack. I don't think they will be a top 10 offense that produces 2 top 40 WRs.If we're talking round 13/14 gamble WRs, I like McCluster more and would take him with Chambers still on the board. I think McCluster's upside for TDs and receptions is higher than Chambers. The risk is higher - maybe a lot higher - but I usually wouldn't make a low upside/safe pick at that point in the draft. If Chambers' upside is top 40, he's not worth drafting in a typical league with 3 starting WRs and 7 or 8 bench spots.I also think the Urban signing is a little under the radar. He's not going to kill it, but he's a reliable target with experience with Haley that should eat up 35-40 receptions that might have otherwise padded Chambers stats a little. A better version of Lance Long.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Bush = limited upside??? Are you saying its not possible for him to catch 80-90 balls like he was doing in his first three years? I"m not saying that its likely, but its definately a possibility... I think he was more hurt last year than he let on. The knee was bothering him and the Saints figured they could let him rest until the playoffs since they had Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell who were more than capable.

I think he's more hurt every year than he lets on.Mike Bell was actually pretty mediocre after he got hurt last year. Take out his first two games and his YPC was like 3.3. Which looks even worse considering Drew Brees is the guy behind center. But still when Pierre Thomas was hurt, they gave Bell more carries and held Reggie back. When Bell and Thomas were hurt, Lynell Hamilton got some carries. I think Payton has a strategy now - use lots of RBs, less is more with Reggie, and keep him on ice for the playoffs. Maybe I am reading it wrong or reading too much into it. Reggie certainly could have 100 catches if he's healthy and if Payton uses him in lots of plays and if Brees locks in on him even with Colston there, Lance Moore healthy, Meachem emerging, some talent at TE, and Devery still there as a deep threat. But I would bet against all 3 of those "if"s.

 

[jaybebo]

If VJax sits out Antonio Gates is going to EXPLODE. Like T1 receiver explode.

Don't see it...if Gates is the best receiver in San Diego, they will be shadowing him with a corner...last year, he benefited from defenses having to contain Jackson, LT and Sproles...two are basically gone...he should be seeing close to 2008 numbers but a slight dip in TDs.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If VJax sits out Antonio Gates is going to EXPLODE. Like T1 receiver explode.

Don't see it...if Gates is the best receiver in San Diego, they will be shadowing him with a corner...last year, he benefited from defenses having to contain Jackson, LT and Sproles...two are basically gone...he should be seeing close to 2008 numbers but a slight dip in TDs.

LT to Mathews has to be an upgrade. No one was gameplanning to contain LT in 2009.

 

[socrates]

Hasselbeck at QB 29 appears to be a potential bargain. I am not buying into the Whitehurst hype. Barring injury, I foresee Hasselbeck leading the Seahawks all season.

Montario Hardesty at RB 38 is a potential value pick. Hardesty is a complete back, and while Harrison will certainly get his touches, I expect Hardesty to be the main guy in the Cleveland backfield.

Cadillac Williams is a steal at RB 36. He finished last season at RB 25, and there is no reason to think he will not repeat about the same this season.

Lee Evans has been a disappointment over the last several seasons, but I fully expect him to outperform his WR 44 ranking. With TO gone, Evans should step into the role of WR1 for the Bills, and even last season with TO present, Evans finished higher than WR 44.

I actually missed Hasselbeck... I like him as a QB3 this year.I'm staying away from the Cleveland RB situation until I see what unfolds in TC/Preseason

I actually like Caddy as well... another guy that I missed. He should be a good RB3/4 this year.

Lee Evans definately represents value at WR44, but I just have a hard time getting excited about a Buffalo WR.

Great point. Much like the Houston situation, the Cleveland RB job is still undefined. Hardesty has some potential, but Harrison (currently listed as the starter) finished the season strong, and Peyton Hillis and James Davis will both be vying for touches. I like Hardesty's potential to outproduce his ADP . . . but this position battle deserves careful monitoring.