EBF
Footballguy
Here's my list for this year. List assumes generic PPR league requirements that stress the RB and WR positions.
I like this class overall. There are good players available throughout. I think the top 5 is strong. I like all of those guys quite a bit and can see a case for almost any of them at #1. I think 6-12 is pretty flat, with some good values to be had in the deeper rounds.
FIRST TIER
1. RB Joe Mixon, Bengals - Probably the best all-around back in the draft. He combines many of the best elements of the others. He has size like Fournette, versatility like McCaffrey, and a smooth running style like Cook. He has the all-around three down game to be a monster in FF like Elliott, Johnson, Forte, or Bell. As long as he stays healthy and focused, he should become an elite FF asset.
2. RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars - Height/weight/speed specimen who will thrive as a north-south runner. I think he will be a multi-year 1000+ yard rusher, but I think his reputation is inflated. People say the name Peterson in the same sentence, but Fournette's creativity/footwork/elusiveness are nowhere near that level. Not very crafty or good in space. Still, the sheer speed/power combination is rare and he can do big things if the team around him can cater to his strengths.
3. RB Christian McCaffrey, Panthers - Stanford is my favorite college team, so I watched McCaffrey a lot in college. I never felt like I had a great grasp on how his game would translate to the NFL. Going into this season, I really did not see him as a first round pick. However, he went in the top 10 of the draft and offers a lot of positives. Apart from a lack of bulk, he tested well at the combine. He has good speed and versatility. He's a productive inside runner despite his lack of weight. Even if he never becomes an 300+ touch every down player, his ability to do multiple things for the offense can see him become sort of a plus version of Danny Woodhead, which will be great in PPR leagues.
4. RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings - The combine numbers are ugly and there are some injury/character red flags. He also lacks an ideal frame to take hits in the NFL. Still, there's a reason why he went in the high second round of the NFL draft despite all of those issues. He is an electric north-south runner whose effortless gliding running style reminds me of David Johnson, albeit without the height/weight and measured explosiveness (good 40 -- bad jumps). There's a lot of risk here, but he can be the type of player who wins the league for you if it clicks.
5. WR Corey Davis, Titans - From a metrics standpoint, I'd like to have a 40 time/vertical/broad to look at so I can get a better sense of who he is athletically. While he has good height and range, he isn't a particularly bulky player. However, he appears to have very good speed and vertical explosiveness. He can win with routes, is a catch-and-run threat, and can also win deep. The overall package reminds me of Amari Cooper or Torry Holt. I think he's a relatively safe bet to become a good player and in PPR leagues you can consider him anywhere in the top 5 if you have WR needs.
SECOND TIER
6. WR Mike Williams, Chargers - I've never been a big Williams fan, but he was a top 10 NFL draft pick and a productive college player, so you have to put some stock in that. He has good height and his vertical explosiveness for a taller player is noticeable. Williams is like an octopus with the ball in the air, twisting and contorting with his long frame to make difficult catches in tight coverage. If you throw it up to him, there's a good chance that he's going to make the play. That underscores one of his weaknesses though. Williams does not have great separation skills and is somewhat inefficient /messy in his lower body movement. While he seemingly has ideal size for the position, his weight is actually quite low for his height, suggesting more of a finesse/precision play style rather than being a powerhouse like the Fitzgeralds, Marshalls, and V Jacksons of the world. However, his routes are nowhere near as tight as other 26.X BMI WRs like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne. I'm not sure he's going to be able to separate in the NFL. I'm also not sure that he's going to stay healthy, as his long frame seems to get tangled up and expose him. All that said, teams spend lots of money on their personnel departments and they usually have a pretty good sense of what they're doing. The Chargers must see a lot in Williams to have made him a top 10 pick and his game isn't without its major pluses. If it works out for him, he can be something like a Mike Evans type of player. I see him as a risky pick though.
7. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers - A year ago I thought JuJu was the best prospect in this WR/RB class, but I can't quite hold to that evaluation now. For him to have fallen into the late 2nd round of the NFL draft despite a productive career at a major college program suggests that pro scouts weren't wowed by his film. I can't disregard that entirely, but I still like his skill set and feel that he was undervalued in the draft. Most people were mocking him as a first round pick a year ago and he showed the same qualities as a junior at USC, so I think maybe some of the backlash is unjust. At 6' 1 1/4" and 215 pounds, JuJu has the best frame of any WR in this draft. His 28.2 BMI puts him in the same category as other big NFL WRs like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Crabtree. His 4.54 40 time is not great in a vacuum, but for a player of his size it's right in the range of what you would expect (Dez/Jackson/Hopkins were all low-mid 4.5 guys and Crabtree is certainly no faster). JuJu is dangerous after the catch, can win jump balls, and has enough speed to be a vertical threat when needed. At just 20 years old, he may have some more physical development left in the tank. The biggest knock on him is his inability to separate, but when I watch his clips I see a guy who is very efficient in his movement, can get out of his breaks cleanly, and easily transitions to running after the catch:
https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=1m52s
https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=5m46s
https://youtu.be/6kyEA3FbTL8?t=42s
On the surface, the landing spot in Pittsburgh does not seem ideal, but I love it. The Steelers really only have one reliable target in Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant cannot be trusted and even when he's not suspended, his style as a deep threat does not overlap with JuJu's chain-moving intermediate game. Brown's presence will deflect coverage/attention and allow JuJu to do his thing as a reliable possession/RAC target. I see him as a gritty Hines Ward type for the new age, having a long career as a reliable possession target who puts up some nice FF stats without ever really dominating.
8. WR John Ross, Bengals - The NFL seems to put a premium on speed and versatility, which is why burners like Tavon Austin, Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett, and Brandin Cooks have been coveted in recent drafts. Ross is far more versatile than Fuller or Dorsett, but offers similar potential as a deep threat in conjunction with a better short-intermediate game ala Cooks/Austin. He is blazing fast with pretty good quickness and good receiving skills. However, with his short and relatively lean frame, he may not be ideally suited for a high volume workload. While he was drafted as a top 10 overall pick, his NFL value may exceed his FF value in the sense that he'll open things up for Cincy's star pass catchers (Green/Eifert/possibly Mixon) without actually being the focus of many targets. Austin is a cautionary tale of what can happen to players like this. I could see Ross being a frustrating FF proposition, but the comparisons to DeSean Jackson are apt and his skill set seems capable of yielding many good FF seasons with the right opportunity.
9. TE OJ Howard, Buccaneers - Howard has been hyped up as an elite talent for years, but never really lit up the box scores for Alabama during his four seasons with the Tide. Despite that, he still landed in the top 20 of the draft and offers a compelling set of skills for the NFL. Howard is a capable blocker and offers nice mobility as a receiving threat. He is faster and more agile than the typical TE prospect, giving him the potential to develop into a big weapon in the receiving game. Howard can work the middle of the field and take short passes to the house. Even against NFL defenses, his speed and long strides will create problems. I think he's a solid prospect who should be drafted about where his generic variables (NFL draft slot, NFL position) dictate. I've heard some rumors that he's not a hard worker and his stats were never incredible at Bama, so there's a bit of an underachiever vibe here, but when you get beyond the top RB/WR in the draft, he seems like a reasonable gamble. Njoku may end up being better in time.
10. TE David Njoku, Browns - A developing talent who is still improving, Njoku seems to have star potential and is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft. Njoku is "only" about 6'4", but has long strides that seem to chew up turf like an Olympic hurdler. He is a graceful north-south glider who also has some quickness and agility despite his height and length. Njoku has good hands and range, and was explosive on a per-catch-basis in 2016. Njoku is brimming with talent and can become a perennial Pro Bowler in the league if it clicks for him, but you need to decide for yourself how much a TE is worth in your format. Unless it's a TE premium league, you may be better off gambling on a lesser WR or RB even though Njoku is far more likely to pan out at his position. TE is simply not a premium position and it's usually not very hard to find a serviceable-to-good one for your FF team.
11. TE Evan Engram, Giants - Running a 4.42 at 6'3" and 234 pounds, Engram is a height/weight/speed specimen who would seem to present a matchup nightmare for defenses. Too big for DBs and too fast for linebackers. I was impressed with his work at the combine, where he really shined in the drills. After taking a longer look at him though, I'm not sure he's going to dominate quite as much as you might think. Despite his tangible athleticism, Engram is not necessarily a dynamic player on the field. While he is crisp and efficient in his routes, you don't see the flashes of dominance that you'd expect. He has better measurables than Jordan Reed and Aaron Hernandez, but doesn't make people miss in space like they did in college. A four year collegiate, he didn't really put up huge numbers until his senior season. He's two years older than Njoku, yet NJoku managed to get drafted almost as high despite leaving college after his third season. If Engram had left last year, he likely would've been a 2nd-3rd rounder. On paper he's going to step into the dynamic Giants offense and immediately become their mismatch chess piece as a nominal TE who will actually function more like a slot WR. It could be FF gold, but I still look at Engram as a merely "good" prospect and not necessarily a great one.
THIRD TIER
12. RB Samaje Perine, Redskins - There's not a lot of mystery to Samaje Perine's game. He's a one-gear power runner with nice balance and just enough agility. Perine is not going to win a lot of races against NFL defenses, but he's built low and compact with an extremely powerful frame. While he struggles to elude at full speed, he has nimble feet and can make east-west cuts early in the play. The overall package reminds me of Rudi Johnson or a less juiced Ricky Williams. Perine's questionable third down ability and lack of explosiveness keep him from being a top tier option, but he can be a two down thumper who amasses multiple 1000+ yard seasons if things break right for him. The lack of top upside might scare me off in 1RB leagues, but in deeper 2RB formats he becomes a solid candidate outside the elite prospects in this draft.
13. RB D'Onta Foreman, Texans - A solid power back with good north-south speed and adequate quickness. His speed really stands out for a big back and is the one thing that keeps him from being a 4th-5th round "JAG" type. He should be able to come in and compete for a spot from day one. If he wins the job, I think he can be a reasonably productive thumper. Good pick in 2RB leagues and for contenders looking for an immediate shot in the arm. Likely not an elite player in the long term.
14. RB Kareem Hunt, Chiefs - I studied Hunt extensively two years ago when he was in the midst of a huge sophomore season at Toledo. He has a compelling skill set. Hunt looks much bigger than his 216 pound listed weight, shedding tackles with lower body strength and determination. While not a burner, he has better game speed than his 4.62 40 time would indicate. Hunt was a standout regional level track athlete in high school, jumping 6'8" in the high jump and 23'3" in the broad jump. The Chiefs traded up to get him and he could end up being their starter as early as this season. Overall, Hunt is a poor man's Todd Gurley with a similar strengths/weaknesses profile. Both have power and speed with marginal avoidance skills. Hunt's cuts/footwork are not always clean and I believe he will be more injury prone than average in the NFL, but he's a three down back capable of handling a large workload in spurts.
15. RB Alvin Kamara, Saints - Kamara is a versatile back whose high draft slot reinforces the NFL's growing infatuation with hybrid mismatch players. While he is an intriguing talent as a 215 pounder with good receiving skills, he's not Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles good as a receiving weapon and is largely unproven as a ball carrier, having been used sparingly in college. His overall package of skills reminds me of CJ Prosise from the 2016 draft. Both guys combine height/weight with receiving ability, but neither really looks like an obvious starter. It could happen for Kamara, but I view him as a boom-or-bust pick and the biggest wild card of the third round backs from this draft.
16. QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs - The book on him is that he's a raw gunslinger with an elite arm and natural pocket sense. He has a big frame, but is not a great athlete. He will force throws and trusts his arm/instincts a little more than he should. People invoke Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler as frequent comparisons. The strengths/weaknesses also remind me of Ben Roethlisberger.
17. QB Mitch Trubisky, Bears - I don't know a lot about him, but wasn't impressed in the bowl game. With only one year of experience under his belt, he sprung for the money instead of staying in college and trying to improve. His deep ball accuracy is said to be spotty. My take on him isn't backed up by any thorough film study or analysis, but he has the feel of a bust to me. The Bears are a terrible team and this looks like another poor decision.
18. QB Deshaun Watson, Texans - Again, I haven't spent a lot of time studying the QBs this year and my rankings of them are not very nuanced of informed. That said, he never looked like an elite NFL QB to me at Clemson. Surely he's better than what the Texans have at the moment, but since Mahomes was the higher pick and seems the more compelling prospect despite having a lower ADP, I'm always going to draft him instead of Watson in my leagues.
FOURTH TIER
19. WR Curtis Samuel, Panthers - Samuel is an explosive athlete who should enhance Carolina's offense with his speed and versatility. The issue with him is whether or not he'll be more than a gadget player. I don't see him being able to handle a high volume of carries and I'm not sure he's going to be a complete enough WR to generate relevant FF value on receiving alone. So while you almost have to take him here based on his athleticism and high draft position, you may be getting another Tavon Austin or Dexter McCluster type of guy whose versatility never really translates into useful FF numbers. In a more optimistic scenario, Samuel could develop into a dangerous chess piece who gets 6-8 carries and another 4-5 receptions per week to be a pest in PPR formats.
20. WR Amara Darboh, Seahawks - Every year there are some lesser prospects who catch your eye and become personal favorites. Darboh is one of those this year. The best way for me to describe him is that he just looks like an NFL WR. He has a sturdy frame, excellent body control, and is a precise athlete with a good ability to separate in his routes. His body type and ability to separate with quickness remind me of Allen Robinson, though he isn't as dominant in general or as loose after the catch. He consistently improved at Michigan and his production in 2016 was deceptively good when you account for the fact that Michigan ranked 92nd out of 128 D1 programs in pass attempts. He can win on short routes and has some downfield game as well. While his game lacks the flash or dominant traits of a #1 NFL WR, he seems like a good candidate to become a productive complementary target on Sundays. The best comparison I can think of is Reggie Wayne. There are some negatives though. He lacks a bit of burst off the snap and does not necessarily play up to his 4.45 40 time. He will drop some passes here and there. At 23 years old, he will be an over-aged rookie and may have peaked physically. Seattle is a bit of a WR graveyard and is not ideal for yielding good FF stats compared with better fits for Darboh like Indianapolis or Green Bay. That being said, I'll gladly take a chance on him in deep leagues at his current rookie ADP, which seems to be well outside the top 25.
21. WR Taywan Taylor, Titans - Taylor caught my eye two years ago at Western Kentucky and has always looked like a potential NFL talent. He is a very good athlete who can separate from defenders on any type of route. His playing speed is better than his 4.50 40 time would indicate. He is a vertical threat and can also do damage in the short-intermediate game. While he lacks height, he has a solid frame to hold up in the NFL. The Titans lost Kendall Wright in the offseason and in Taylor they are getting a very similar replacement. That's both a good and bad thing. Kendall Wright was a decent player in Tennessee, but even his best season was only marginally useful for FF purposes. Taylor could end up much the same. I think he has the talent to contribute in the league, but whether or not his role will be enough to make him fantasy relevant is more questionable.
22. WR Zay Jones, Bills - The Bills just fired their whole scouting department and I can't say I'm very surprised. Their track record of identifying talent is spotty and they've been particularly wasteful at WR, where they've used a lot of draft capital on guys like Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, and Marquise Goodwin without getting great return on their investment. Unfortunately, I don't expect Zay Jones to reverse the trend. While he is tall and productive with good route skills and explosive leaping ability, Jones has a toothpick thin frame and does not look to me like a guy who will be able to thrive against NFL defenders. Supporters could point to AJ Green as an optimistic comparison of a thin WR who wins with range and route running, but my hunch is that he'll go more in the direction of Josh Doctson or Justin Hunter.
23. TE Gerald Everett, Rams - I've tried to watch clips of Everett, but there's not a wealth of video available given that he comes from a small program. From what I've seen he looks neither really good nor really bad, but merely average for a 2nd-3rd round NFL TE prospect. His combine metrics are impressive and he goes to a Rams team in desperate need of playmakers, so I'm willing to take a chance on him if the price is right. It's not easy to get picked in the top 50 out of a small school as a TE, so the Rams must really covet Everett. This feels like the right range for him in rookie drafts.
24. RB Jamaal Williams, Packers - Williams has pedestrian physical measurables, but reminds a bit of Cadillac Williams in terms of being a lighter back who runs with tenacity, authority, and determination. He has active feet and hips, and can make good cuts. Ty Montgomery is an interesting athlete, but he might not be suited to anything more than a part-time role. That could open the door for Williams to be the main ball carrier for Green Bay as early as next season. I think he has the potential to be productive. The issue with guys like this who are borderline talents is that any signing/draft pick can be a threat to their workload. While I like Williams a little bit, I don't see him as an obvious starter in the NFL, especially long-term.
WAIVER GEM:
RB Devante Mays, Packers - Mays is not an elite talent and like all late picks is more likely to fail than succeed, but Green Bay's 7th rounder was an intriguing selection who has some CJ Anderson traits as a compact power back with reasonably smooth sideways quickness and cutting ability. Everyone is focusing on Williams and Aaron Brown in this competition, but Mays has the potential to beat both of them out and is a must-add as a 4th+ round rookie pick or UDFA if you are trying to lock up this backfield. Even if you have no ownership stake in this backfield, I recommend adding him in deeper leagues and monitoring his preseason performance in case he pulls a Pierre Thomas/CJ Anderson here.
OTHERS:
RB Marlon Mack, Colts - Mack is a somewhat lean glider with borderline explosiveness. Basically a poor man's version of Dalvin Cook. He may be good enough to thrive in spurts, but if you are looking for Indy's long term RB then I think you can keep searching.
RB Wayne Gallman, Giants - The Giants don't have much at RB and that hasn't changed with the drafting of Gallman. He is competitive, but the physical tools are marginal.
WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers - He's not bad, but I don't see any special qualities either. I think he's strictly a supporting piece in the NFL. The same could probably be said for Taylor and Darboh, but they pop for me a bit more when I watch their clips.
WR Carlos Henderson, Broncos - He has vertical explosiveness and may be viewed as the eventual replacement for Emmanuel Sanders. There's a similarity there. Henderson hit a lot of big plays in college and is a reasonable gamble in the 15-25 range if you like what he does. I think he's a bit one-dimensional and prefer others to him, but I think he has a chance.
WR Ardarius Stewart, Jets - Not hopeless, but not a guy I expect to draft in many leagues. Competitive player with some decent traits, but I'll be surprised if he tops out as anything more than a 700-800 yard type of guy in the NFL. If you want an optimistic comparison, the Jets did pretty well many years ago with another speedy WR from a big college program in the South who was overshadowed by his NCAA teammates (Laveranues Coles).
WR Chad Williams, Cardinals - I don't know much about him and the clips I've seen don't really stand out to me as being exceptional. That being said, the Cardinals have a pretty decent track record with small school guys in the third round (David Johnson, John Brown) and Williams consistently falls to an ADP range in my rookie drafts where he starts to look like good value based solely on the generic traits.
WR Cooper Kupp, Rams - Disastrous athletic metrics despite his illustrious college career. I don't love his clips and I don't trust the Rams enough to value their assessment of him independent of the other variables.
TE Jonnu Smith, Titans - An above average athlete who shows some flashes after the catch. He has a chance to develop into a useful FF player, but doesn't seem ready to contribute and may not have a huge ceiling. I think if he works out he'll be a 600-800 yard TE, not a guy who ever really dominates. Do you want to wait 2-3 years for another Charles Clay? In TE premium leagues he might be worth it, but in shallower leagues I'd rather have the roster spot.
TE Jake Butt, Broncos - Solid player without exceptional athletic traits. Kind of a lesser Jason Witten. I think he has a chance to be a productive starter, but it will take patience and the Graham/Gronk ceiling isn't there.
I like this class overall. There are good players available throughout. I think the top 5 is strong. I like all of those guys quite a bit and can see a case for almost any of them at #1. I think 6-12 is pretty flat, with some good values to be had in the deeper rounds.
FIRST TIER
1. RB Joe Mixon, Bengals - Probably the best all-around back in the draft. He combines many of the best elements of the others. He has size like Fournette, versatility like McCaffrey, and a smooth running style like Cook. He has the all-around three down game to be a monster in FF like Elliott, Johnson, Forte, or Bell. As long as he stays healthy and focused, he should become an elite FF asset.
2. RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars - Height/weight/speed specimen who will thrive as a north-south runner. I think he will be a multi-year 1000+ yard rusher, but I think his reputation is inflated. People say the name Peterson in the same sentence, but Fournette's creativity/footwork/elusiveness are nowhere near that level. Not very crafty or good in space. Still, the sheer speed/power combination is rare and he can do big things if the team around him can cater to his strengths.
3. RB Christian McCaffrey, Panthers - Stanford is my favorite college team, so I watched McCaffrey a lot in college. I never felt like I had a great grasp on how his game would translate to the NFL. Going into this season, I really did not see him as a first round pick. However, he went in the top 10 of the draft and offers a lot of positives. Apart from a lack of bulk, he tested well at the combine. He has good speed and versatility. He's a productive inside runner despite his lack of weight. Even if he never becomes an 300+ touch every down player, his ability to do multiple things for the offense can see him become sort of a plus version of Danny Woodhead, which will be great in PPR leagues.
4. RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings - The combine numbers are ugly and there are some injury/character red flags. He also lacks an ideal frame to take hits in the NFL. Still, there's a reason why he went in the high second round of the NFL draft despite all of those issues. He is an electric north-south runner whose effortless gliding running style reminds me of David Johnson, albeit without the height/weight and measured explosiveness (good 40 -- bad jumps). There's a lot of risk here, but he can be the type of player who wins the league for you if it clicks.
5. WR Corey Davis, Titans - From a metrics standpoint, I'd like to have a 40 time/vertical/broad to look at so I can get a better sense of who he is athletically. While he has good height and range, he isn't a particularly bulky player. However, he appears to have very good speed and vertical explosiveness. He can win with routes, is a catch-and-run threat, and can also win deep. The overall package reminds me of Amari Cooper or Torry Holt. I think he's a relatively safe bet to become a good player and in PPR leagues you can consider him anywhere in the top 5 if you have WR needs.
SECOND TIER
6. WR Mike Williams, Chargers - I've never been a big Williams fan, but he was a top 10 NFL draft pick and a productive college player, so you have to put some stock in that. He has good height and his vertical explosiveness for a taller player is noticeable. Williams is like an octopus with the ball in the air, twisting and contorting with his long frame to make difficult catches in tight coverage. If you throw it up to him, there's a good chance that he's going to make the play. That underscores one of his weaknesses though. Williams does not have great separation skills and is somewhat inefficient /messy in his lower body movement. While he seemingly has ideal size for the position, his weight is actually quite low for his height, suggesting more of a finesse/precision play style rather than being a powerhouse like the Fitzgeralds, Marshalls, and V Jacksons of the world. However, his routes are nowhere near as tight as other 26.X BMI WRs like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne. I'm not sure he's going to be able to separate in the NFL. I'm also not sure that he's going to stay healthy, as his long frame seems to get tangled up and expose him. All that said, teams spend lots of money on their personnel departments and they usually have a pretty good sense of what they're doing. The Chargers must see a lot in Williams to have made him a top 10 pick and his game isn't without its major pluses. If it works out for him, he can be something like a Mike Evans type of player. I see him as a risky pick though.
7. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers - A year ago I thought JuJu was the best prospect in this WR/RB class, but I can't quite hold to that evaluation now. For him to have fallen into the late 2nd round of the NFL draft despite a productive career at a major college program suggests that pro scouts weren't wowed by his film. I can't disregard that entirely, but I still like his skill set and feel that he was undervalued in the draft. Most people were mocking him as a first round pick a year ago and he showed the same qualities as a junior at USC, so I think maybe some of the backlash is unjust. At 6' 1 1/4" and 215 pounds, JuJu has the best frame of any WR in this draft. His 28.2 BMI puts him in the same category as other big NFL WRs like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Crabtree. His 4.54 40 time is not great in a vacuum, but for a player of his size it's right in the range of what you would expect (Dez/Jackson/Hopkins were all low-mid 4.5 guys and Crabtree is certainly no faster). JuJu is dangerous after the catch, can win jump balls, and has enough speed to be a vertical threat when needed. At just 20 years old, he may have some more physical development left in the tank. The biggest knock on him is his inability to separate, but when I watch his clips I see a guy who is very efficient in his movement, can get out of his breaks cleanly, and easily transitions to running after the catch:
https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=1m52s
https://youtu.be/t0iwtyeyonI?t=5m46s
https://youtu.be/6kyEA3FbTL8?t=42s
On the surface, the landing spot in Pittsburgh does not seem ideal, but I love it. The Steelers really only have one reliable target in Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant cannot be trusted and even when he's not suspended, his style as a deep threat does not overlap with JuJu's chain-moving intermediate game. Brown's presence will deflect coverage/attention and allow JuJu to do his thing as a reliable possession/RAC target. I see him as a gritty Hines Ward type for the new age, having a long career as a reliable possession target who puts up some nice FF stats without ever really dominating.
8. WR John Ross, Bengals - The NFL seems to put a premium on speed and versatility, which is why burners like Tavon Austin, Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett, and Brandin Cooks have been coveted in recent drafts. Ross is far more versatile than Fuller or Dorsett, but offers similar potential as a deep threat in conjunction with a better short-intermediate game ala Cooks/Austin. He is blazing fast with pretty good quickness and good receiving skills. However, with his short and relatively lean frame, he may not be ideally suited for a high volume workload. While he was drafted as a top 10 overall pick, his NFL value may exceed his FF value in the sense that he'll open things up for Cincy's star pass catchers (Green/Eifert/possibly Mixon) without actually being the focus of many targets. Austin is a cautionary tale of what can happen to players like this. I could see Ross being a frustrating FF proposition, but the comparisons to DeSean Jackson are apt and his skill set seems capable of yielding many good FF seasons with the right opportunity.
9. TE OJ Howard, Buccaneers - Howard has been hyped up as an elite talent for years, but never really lit up the box scores for Alabama during his four seasons with the Tide. Despite that, he still landed in the top 20 of the draft and offers a compelling set of skills for the NFL. Howard is a capable blocker and offers nice mobility as a receiving threat. He is faster and more agile than the typical TE prospect, giving him the potential to develop into a big weapon in the receiving game. Howard can work the middle of the field and take short passes to the house. Even against NFL defenses, his speed and long strides will create problems. I think he's a solid prospect who should be drafted about where his generic variables (NFL draft slot, NFL position) dictate. I've heard some rumors that he's not a hard worker and his stats were never incredible at Bama, so there's a bit of an underachiever vibe here, but when you get beyond the top RB/WR in the draft, he seems like a reasonable gamble. Njoku may end up being better in time.
10. TE David Njoku, Browns - A developing talent who is still improving, Njoku seems to have star potential and is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft. Njoku is "only" about 6'4", but has long strides that seem to chew up turf like an Olympic hurdler. He is a graceful north-south glider who also has some quickness and agility despite his height and length. Njoku has good hands and range, and was explosive on a per-catch-basis in 2016. Njoku is brimming with talent and can become a perennial Pro Bowler in the league if it clicks for him, but you need to decide for yourself how much a TE is worth in your format. Unless it's a TE premium league, you may be better off gambling on a lesser WR or RB even though Njoku is far more likely to pan out at his position. TE is simply not a premium position and it's usually not very hard to find a serviceable-to-good one for your FF team.
11. TE Evan Engram, Giants - Running a 4.42 at 6'3" and 234 pounds, Engram is a height/weight/speed specimen who would seem to present a matchup nightmare for defenses. Too big for DBs and too fast for linebackers. I was impressed with his work at the combine, where he really shined in the drills. After taking a longer look at him though, I'm not sure he's going to dominate quite as much as you might think. Despite his tangible athleticism, Engram is not necessarily a dynamic player on the field. While he is crisp and efficient in his routes, you don't see the flashes of dominance that you'd expect. He has better measurables than Jordan Reed and Aaron Hernandez, but doesn't make people miss in space like they did in college. A four year collegiate, he didn't really put up huge numbers until his senior season. He's two years older than Njoku, yet NJoku managed to get drafted almost as high despite leaving college after his third season. If Engram had left last year, he likely would've been a 2nd-3rd rounder. On paper he's going to step into the dynamic Giants offense and immediately become their mismatch chess piece as a nominal TE who will actually function more like a slot WR. It could be FF gold, but I still look at Engram as a merely "good" prospect and not necessarily a great one.
THIRD TIER
12. RB Samaje Perine, Redskins - There's not a lot of mystery to Samaje Perine's game. He's a one-gear power runner with nice balance and just enough agility. Perine is not going to win a lot of races against NFL defenses, but he's built low and compact with an extremely powerful frame. While he struggles to elude at full speed, he has nimble feet and can make east-west cuts early in the play. The overall package reminds me of Rudi Johnson or a less juiced Ricky Williams. Perine's questionable third down ability and lack of explosiveness keep him from being a top tier option, but he can be a two down thumper who amasses multiple 1000+ yard seasons if things break right for him. The lack of top upside might scare me off in 1RB leagues, but in deeper 2RB formats he becomes a solid candidate outside the elite prospects in this draft.
13. RB D'Onta Foreman, Texans - A solid power back with good north-south speed and adequate quickness. His speed really stands out for a big back and is the one thing that keeps him from being a 4th-5th round "JAG" type. He should be able to come in and compete for a spot from day one. If he wins the job, I think he can be a reasonably productive thumper. Good pick in 2RB leagues and for contenders looking for an immediate shot in the arm. Likely not an elite player in the long term.
14. RB Kareem Hunt, Chiefs - I studied Hunt extensively two years ago when he was in the midst of a huge sophomore season at Toledo. He has a compelling skill set. Hunt looks much bigger than his 216 pound listed weight, shedding tackles with lower body strength and determination. While not a burner, he has better game speed than his 4.62 40 time would indicate. Hunt was a standout regional level track athlete in high school, jumping 6'8" in the high jump and 23'3" in the broad jump. The Chiefs traded up to get him and he could end up being their starter as early as this season. Overall, Hunt is a poor man's Todd Gurley with a similar strengths/weaknesses profile. Both have power and speed with marginal avoidance skills. Hunt's cuts/footwork are not always clean and I believe he will be more injury prone than average in the NFL, but he's a three down back capable of handling a large workload in spurts.
15. RB Alvin Kamara, Saints - Kamara is a versatile back whose high draft slot reinforces the NFL's growing infatuation with hybrid mismatch players. While he is an intriguing talent as a 215 pounder with good receiving skills, he's not Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles good as a receiving weapon and is largely unproven as a ball carrier, having been used sparingly in college. His overall package of skills reminds me of CJ Prosise from the 2016 draft. Both guys combine height/weight with receiving ability, but neither really looks like an obvious starter. It could happen for Kamara, but I view him as a boom-or-bust pick and the biggest wild card of the third round backs from this draft.
16. QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs - The book on him is that he's a raw gunslinger with an elite arm and natural pocket sense. He has a big frame, but is not a great athlete. He will force throws and trusts his arm/instincts a little more than he should. People invoke Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler as frequent comparisons. The strengths/weaknesses also remind me of Ben Roethlisberger.
17. QB Mitch Trubisky, Bears - I don't know a lot about him, but wasn't impressed in the bowl game. With only one year of experience under his belt, he sprung for the money instead of staying in college and trying to improve. His deep ball accuracy is said to be spotty. My take on him isn't backed up by any thorough film study or analysis, but he has the feel of a bust to me. The Bears are a terrible team and this looks like another poor decision.
18. QB Deshaun Watson, Texans - Again, I haven't spent a lot of time studying the QBs this year and my rankings of them are not very nuanced of informed. That said, he never looked like an elite NFL QB to me at Clemson. Surely he's better than what the Texans have at the moment, but since Mahomes was the higher pick and seems the more compelling prospect despite having a lower ADP, I'm always going to draft him instead of Watson in my leagues.
FOURTH TIER
19. WR Curtis Samuel, Panthers - Samuel is an explosive athlete who should enhance Carolina's offense with his speed and versatility. The issue with him is whether or not he'll be more than a gadget player. I don't see him being able to handle a high volume of carries and I'm not sure he's going to be a complete enough WR to generate relevant FF value on receiving alone. So while you almost have to take him here based on his athleticism and high draft position, you may be getting another Tavon Austin or Dexter McCluster type of guy whose versatility never really translates into useful FF numbers. In a more optimistic scenario, Samuel could develop into a dangerous chess piece who gets 6-8 carries and another 4-5 receptions per week to be a pest in PPR formats.
20. WR Amara Darboh, Seahawks - Every year there are some lesser prospects who catch your eye and become personal favorites. Darboh is one of those this year. The best way for me to describe him is that he just looks like an NFL WR. He has a sturdy frame, excellent body control, and is a precise athlete with a good ability to separate in his routes. His body type and ability to separate with quickness remind me of Allen Robinson, though he isn't as dominant in general or as loose after the catch. He consistently improved at Michigan and his production in 2016 was deceptively good when you account for the fact that Michigan ranked 92nd out of 128 D1 programs in pass attempts. He can win on short routes and has some downfield game as well. While his game lacks the flash or dominant traits of a #1 NFL WR, he seems like a good candidate to become a productive complementary target on Sundays. The best comparison I can think of is Reggie Wayne. There are some negatives though. He lacks a bit of burst off the snap and does not necessarily play up to his 4.45 40 time. He will drop some passes here and there. At 23 years old, he will be an over-aged rookie and may have peaked physically. Seattle is a bit of a WR graveyard and is not ideal for yielding good FF stats compared with better fits for Darboh like Indianapolis or Green Bay. That being said, I'll gladly take a chance on him in deep leagues at his current rookie ADP, which seems to be well outside the top 25.
21. WR Taywan Taylor, Titans - Taylor caught my eye two years ago at Western Kentucky and has always looked like a potential NFL talent. He is a very good athlete who can separate from defenders on any type of route. His playing speed is better than his 4.50 40 time would indicate. He is a vertical threat and can also do damage in the short-intermediate game. While he lacks height, he has a solid frame to hold up in the NFL. The Titans lost Kendall Wright in the offseason and in Taylor they are getting a very similar replacement. That's both a good and bad thing. Kendall Wright was a decent player in Tennessee, but even his best season was only marginally useful for FF purposes. Taylor could end up much the same. I think he has the talent to contribute in the league, but whether or not his role will be enough to make him fantasy relevant is more questionable.
22. WR Zay Jones, Bills - The Bills just fired their whole scouting department and I can't say I'm very surprised. Their track record of identifying talent is spotty and they've been particularly wasteful at WR, where they've used a lot of draft capital on guys like Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, and Marquise Goodwin without getting great return on their investment. Unfortunately, I don't expect Zay Jones to reverse the trend. While he is tall and productive with good route skills and explosive leaping ability, Jones has a toothpick thin frame and does not look to me like a guy who will be able to thrive against NFL defenders. Supporters could point to AJ Green as an optimistic comparison of a thin WR who wins with range and route running, but my hunch is that he'll go more in the direction of Josh Doctson or Justin Hunter.
23. TE Gerald Everett, Rams - I've tried to watch clips of Everett, but there's not a wealth of video available given that he comes from a small program. From what I've seen he looks neither really good nor really bad, but merely average for a 2nd-3rd round NFL TE prospect. His combine metrics are impressive and he goes to a Rams team in desperate need of playmakers, so I'm willing to take a chance on him if the price is right. It's not easy to get picked in the top 50 out of a small school as a TE, so the Rams must really covet Everett. This feels like the right range for him in rookie drafts.
24. RB Jamaal Williams, Packers - Williams has pedestrian physical measurables, but reminds a bit of Cadillac Williams in terms of being a lighter back who runs with tenacity, authority, and determination. He has active feet and hips, and can make good cuts. Ty Montgomery is an interesting athlete, but he might not be suited to anything more than a part-time role. That could open the door for Williams to be the main ball carrier for Green Bay as early as next season. I think he has the potential to be productive. The issue with guys like this who are borderline talents is that any signing/draft pick can be a threat to their workload. While I like Williams a little bit, I don't see him as an obvious starter in the NFL, especially long-term.
WAIVER GEM:
RB Devante Mays, Packers - Mays is not an elite talent and like all late picks is more likely to fail than succeed, but Green Bay's 7th rounder was an intriguing selection who has some CJ Anderson traits as a compact power back with reasonably smooth sideways quickness and cutting ability. Everyone is focusing on Williams and Aaron Brown in this competition, but Mays has the potential to beat both of them out and is a must-add as a 4th+ round rookie pick or UDFA if you are trying to lock up this backfield. Even if you have no ownership stake in this backfield, I recommend adding him in deeper leagues and monitoring his preseason performance in case he pulls a Pierre Thomas/CJ Anderson here.
OTHERS:
RB Marlon Mack, Colts - Mack is a somewhat lean glider with borderline explosiveness. Basically a poor man's version of Dalvin Cook. He may be good enough to thrive in spurts, but if you are looking for Indy's long term RB then I think you can keep searching.
RB Wayne Gallman, Giants - The Giants don't have much at RB and that hasn't changed with the drafting of Gallman. He is competitive, but the physical tools are marginal.
WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers - He's not bad, but I don't see any special qualities either. I think he's strictly a supporting piece in the NFL. The same could probably be said for Taylor and Darboh, but they pop for me a bit more when I watch their clips.
WR Carlos Henderson, Broncos - He has vertical explosiveness and may be viewed as the eventual replacement for Emmanuel Sanders. There's a similarity there. Henderson hit a lot of big plays in college and is a reasonable gamble in the 15-25 range if you like what he does. I think he's a bit one-dimensional and prefer others to him, but I think he has a chance.
WR Ardarius Stewart, Jets - Not hopeless, but not a guy I expect to draft in many leagues. Competitive player with some decent traits, but I'll be surprised if he tops out as anything more than a 700-800 yard type of guy in the NFL. If you want an optimistic comparison, the Jets did pretty well many years ago with another speedy WR from a big college program in the South who was overshadowed by his NCAA teammates (Laveranues Coles).
WR Chad Williams, Cardinals - I don't know much about him and the clips I've seen don't really stand out to me as being exceptional. That being said, the Cardinals have a pretty decent track record with small school guys in the third round (David Johnson, John Brown) and Williams consistently falls to an ADP range in my rookie drafts where he starts to look like good value based solely on the generic traits.
WR Cooper Kupp, Rams - Disastrous athletic metrics despite his illustrious college career. I don't love his clips and I don't trust the Rams enough to value their assessment of him independent of the other variables.
TE Jonnu Smith, Titans - An above average athlete who shows some flashes after the catch. He has a chance to develop into a useful FF player, but doesn't seem ready to contribute and may not have a huge ceiling. I think if he works out he'll be a 600-800 yard TE, not a guy who ever really dominates. Do you want to wait 2-3 years for another Charles Clay? In TE premium leagues he might be worth it, but in shallower leagues I'd rather have the roster spot.
TE Jake Butt, Broncos - Solid player without exceptional athletic traits. Kind of a lesser Jason Witten. I think he has a chance to be a productive starter, but it will take patience and the Graham/Gronk ceiling isn't there.
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