EBF
Footballguy
All of my drafts are over and I thought I'd share some of my thoughts on this group of players. Overall, this is probably the weakest rookie crop that I can remember. I think a top 4 pick guarantees you a relatively strong prospect, but everything after that is a crapshoot. Here is how I see things for the average RB/WR heavy PPR league.
First Tier
1. RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys - No surprises here. Elliott looks like a safe bet to become a three down starter. I would feel good about picking him here, but don't be surprised if he ends up being merely good rather than incredible. He has good speed for a bigger back, but is otherwise average in terms of explosiveness. He was not a huge big play threat in college, ranking average to slightly below average in terms of his ability to break off long runs. Basically, he may end up being more Mark Ingram than Adrian Peterson, but his high draft slot is extremely impressive and his big name recognition ensures that he'll have enduring trade value even if he stumbles out of the blocks. I like him enough to take him with the #1 pick and feel good about it. I would not look to trade him despite the concerns I outlined.
Second Tier
2. WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings - Ugly combine numbers, but the tape tells a somewhat different story. Treadwell is actually very fast off the snap and has quick feet in his routes for a big/tall guy. He will not be a home run hitter in the NFL, but he can make a living all day as a reliable possession target on the short-intermediate stuff. I think he will be a solid #1 WR at the next level, albeit without the home run threat that other top receivers provide. More of a chain mover. He's still very young, which is an added plus. There may be more development left in the tank.
3. WR Corey Coleman, Browns - He has the production and athleticism you want in a WR. Some will question his situation and his size, but he's a good weight for his height and being the best receiver on a bad team can lead to a huge amount of targets. He fits the Antonio Brown mold as a waterbug type of receiver who is too explosive and athletic for corners to hang with. I don't view him as a lock, but he was the first WR drafted, his game clips are impressive, and he fits the bill in terms of measurables.
4. WR Josh Doctson, Redskins - He's an explosive leaper with great ball skills, height, and production. In terms of body type and style, AJ Green and Reggie Wayne are solid comparisons. Like those two, Docston has merely average speed and will not overwhelm people after the catch with quickness, explosiveness, or power. I found his tape less convincing than that of the two WRs ranked ahead of him here. I don't know if he'll be able to separate consistently against pro corners, but you have to respect the draft process and there's enough talent here to justify a top 4 pick in this class.
Third Tier
This is where things get ugly. While I'd generally feel okay about rostering any of my top 4 at his ADP, I can't say the same for the next tier. There's not a single player in this next group that I feel great about. In my opinion the difference in value between picks 4 and 5 is big whereas the difference in value between picks 5 and 14 is negligible. This is the worst I've ever felt about picks in the 1.06-1.12 range. There's just nothing there that excites me and I've generally sought to trade down (to no avail). With that out of the way...
5. RB Derrick Henry, Titans - For better or worse, this is one of the most unique backs to come along in a while. He is unusually tall with very long legs and a high-cut frame. The consequence of this is that he struggles to operate in small windows. That's typically a problem in the NFL, but Henry has nice lateral quickness in the open field and is a runaway locomotive when he hits his stride. Assuming that his team can give him a clean running lane, he could potentially do some great things. If the blocking breaks down, he will struggle to create on his own. He's not very proven as a receiver, which could limit his upside if he's unable to learn that facet of the game. Overall, he looks like a two down pounder with above average long speed and a boom-or-bust running style that will be heavily reliant on his team's ability to block for him. He has value, but carries considerable bust risk as well.
6. WR Will Fuller, Texans - Fuller's game is all about vertical explosiveness. He uses his low 4.3 speed to terrorize defenders deep. It only takes one lapse in coverage for Fuller to break a 40+ yard touchdown. This rare big play threat was likely the reason that the Texans selected Fuller. His other traits are average at best. He is very small and is not a reliable possession WR. Optimists will compare him to other slight speedsters like T.Y Hilton and DeSean Jackson. If he pans out, that's the type of receiver he might become. Naysayers will recognize similarities with Tedd Ginn, another first round pick with blazing speed who has failed to convert those traits into consistent receiving production. I find Fuller to be a limited player, but I also respect the draft slot enough not to bump him down too far below where the generic odds dictate he be.
7. WR Sterling Shepard, Giants - I like the production, workout numbers, and draft slot. I'm not wowed by his game clips though. He looks just okay to me. Nothing special. I'm not a fan of judging players by their school, but it may be worth mentioning that the Bob Stoops era of OU football has yielded a few of these undersized stat monsters who didn't thrive in the NFL (Mark Clayon, Ryan Broyles, etc). Although he's short, Shepard has a good weight for his height and can separate on a variety of routes. When I look at the total package, the player I'm most reminded of is Golden Tate. Tate has carved out a niche as a productive NFL player and Shepard could do the same. He can run every type of route and will be useful right away. He has a nice immediate opportunity as Beckham's sidekick.
8. WR Michael Thomas, Saints - Solid is the word that comes to mind when I think of Thomas. There's nothing I love about him. There's nothing I hate. He has above average height and decent strength. His agility is pretty good for a bigger guy. Overall, he looks like a solid #2 NFL WR without any single elite trait. His speed is just average and while he moves pretty well after the catch for a bigger WR, he's not truly dynamic in my estimation. I think he is a quality player with a modest upside that may depend on his supporting cast and usage to achieve strong statistical production. He reminds me of Arizona's Michael Floyd, but is more agile with less speed. I don't see him as a #1 NFL WR in a vacuum. More of a complementary piece. .
9. WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals - Boyd is one of those classic overachiever "football player" type of guys that scouts love. By NFL standards, he's a pedestrian athlete in terms of measurables. He has a slight frame, average speed, and no quantifiable explosiveness to speak of. However, he's a "gamer' type of guy like Randall Cobb or Keenan Allen whose on-field performance is greater than the sum of his athletic parts. He has excellent ball skills and body control. He will come down with tough catches in traffic. He was a jack-of-all-trades for Pittsburgh and they leaned on him heavilty. Still, I'm not very high on the overall package. I think his lack of standout physical traits will likely relegate him to a supporting role. His lack of explosion/strength will make it much harder for him to find separation against the superior DBs in the NFL. He has a chance to become a plus version of Marvin Jones if it works out, but he is lacking some of the ingredients of a #1 pro receiver.
10. QB Jared Goff, Rams - I've gone back-and-forth on the Wentz/Goff debate throughout the last week or two. Wentz has better size and athletic ability. Goff is the more refined and instinctive passer. Neither guy appears to be the total package, but history has shown us that the NFL is prone to overrating "tools" quarterbacks who lack great passing production and instincts (i.e. Kyle Boller, Vince Young, Jake Locker). Wentz seems better than those guys and may ultimately develop into a Bortles/Roethlisberger, but most people seem to agree that Goff is more proven and developed as a passer. That gives him the edge for me right now.
11. QB Carson Wentz, Eagles - Although there are some risk factors (production, age, level of competition), he seems to have a high ceiling and could become a top 5 dynasty QB if he can achieve his full potential. I like him here instead of the remaining second tier RBs and WRs, who seem quite mediocre.
12. TE Hunter Henry, Chargers - Henry isn't quite the athlete that recent TE prospects like Tyler Eifert and Eric Ebron were, and that's likely why he slid out of the first round of the NFL draft. He doesn't quite have the same explosiveness or precision of movement. On the other hand, he's still very mobile for his size and offers strong receiving skills to go along with his other attributes. While I don't see him dominating in the NFL, he strikes me as the type of guy who can yield years of solid mid-low level TE1 production. I think his floor is Kyle Rudolph while his ceiling is Jason Witten. Owners looking to hit a solid single or double instead of swinging for the fences on a mediocre RB/WR here should look towards Henry for a safe selection.
13. RB Kenyan Drake, Dolphins - Drake is a very unconventional back who offers some clear strengths and weaknesses. On the plus side, he possesses excellent speed and is a fluid and springy runner on the edges. Despite having long and gangly legs, he shows quick feet and good lateral agility. With his height and speed, he offers a unique dimension as a pass catcher. He can flex out wide and be used as a moving chess piece by his offensive coordinator. On the downside, Drake has a tall and lean frame with very long legs that make it hard for him to generate power in tight quarters. Most of his big plays in college came around the edge. When asked to do the dirty work up the middle, Drake seems like more of a feast-or-famine proposition. He suffered some injuries in college and may not have the right body type or durability to be an every-down guy. I think he is more likely to be a committee back than a real workhorse, but there's enough compelling traits here to justify a pick at or even above his rookie draft ADP. He was the third RB chosen and goes to a team with no proven starter. A David Johnson type of rookie year is possible, albeit far from guaranteed.
14. RB CJ Prosise, Seahawks - Prosise is a lot like Drake. Both look more like WRs than RBs at times. While Drake offers more "wow" factor and is a more elastic runner, Prosise is more compact and powerful, and may ultimately have a higher ceiling if he can hone the rough edges of his game. While he flashes good quickness at times, Prosise is not consistently decisive or elusive with his movements. He can be a hesitant runner. Despite weighing 220+ pounds, Prosise is not a particularly authoritative or powerful back. I've seen him compared to Matt Forte and David Johnson, but both backs were more consistent in demonstrating loose hips and elusiveness in college. The Seahawks are a good organization and they claim to have a clear plan for Prosise, which is very intriguing. There's a lot of upside here, but when I watch his highlights I am not yet convinced that he's more than a gadget player. I would draft him, but I wouldn't reach much higher than this to do so.
15. WR Leonte Carroo, Dolphins - An efficiency stats monster who physically looks the part of an NFL WR, Carroo offers a solid blend of size and explosiveness. While he only ran a 4.50 at the combine, his game speed seems much better and he was one of the best deep threats in college football last season. A whopping 30.8% of his catches in 2015 went for 20 or more yards. On the down side, he lacks height and length. He has short arms and a somewhat small catch radius. While explosive in a straight line, his east-west quickness is just average. Overall, Carroo's game is reminiscent of someone like Pierre Garcon. I think he can be a productive pro and he may have a higher FF ceiling than Shepard or Thomas. Has some character issues.
Fourth Tier
This is what you might call the "flawed, but worth a punt tier". All of these guys have issues, but they're all players that I harbor at least some interest in and would be interested in owning for the right price.
16. RB Kenneth Dixon, Ravens - Dixon is a solid back with no glaring weaknesses and no exceptional traits. He was a productive four year player at Louisiana Tech and offers enough power and mobility to step in and produce serviceable numbers as a rookie. For better or worse, he could be the Zac Stacy of this class. I think he has all the talent needed to be competent if thrust into duty. The issue with backs like this is that they have nothing to differentiate them from competition, so they struggle to win and keep starting roles. I could see taking Dixon higher than this if you were desperate for immediate production and/or if you had the mindset to flip him the minute his stock pops like Stacy's did, but his market price is a bit too rich for my taste. He usually goes between 6-10 in my drafts, which seems too high. I don't believe that he has starter talent in a vacuum, so what you're really buying is the opportunity, and opportunity in the NFL tends not to last very long for mediocre players. What happened in St. Louis with Stacy (and later Mason) is a great example.
17. QB Paxton Lynch, Denver - I didn't spend much time evaluating QBs this year and don't have much to say about Lynch besides the obvious. Big guy with NFL caliber athletic tools and solid college production in a gimmicky system. He is regarded as a raw prospect with a high ceiling who may need years to reach a decent level. Overall, he comes across as a slightly better version of the QB Denver let walk in the offseason: Brock Osweiler. Most people think Lynch has the talent to develop into a starter and the Broncos (and Cowboys) liked him enough to spend a first round pick on him, so I feel fine taking him off the board here after all the quality RB/WR prospects are spoken for.
18. WR Moritz Boehringer, Vikings - Most of the prospects in this range are mediocre talents with low ceilings. For those seeking boom-or-bust upside, Boehringer is an intriguing proposition. The German import has never played football against high level competition and his story comes across as a bit of a publicity stunt, but the athletic parts are intriguing and his 6th round draft slot is relatively impressive given his total lack of experience. This is a big target with rare speed who shows some signs of potentially becoming a capable route runner in the future. He'll be extremely raw out of the box and may struggle to even make the roster, but...the upside here is tremendous if he happens to achieve his full potential. A 5-10% chance of a top 15 dynasty WR is worth the price of admission here to me. One way or another, we'll look back on this ranking and laugh, because he'll probably either hit big or crash out entirely.
19. RB Jonathan Williams, Bills - Williams is my favorite of this year's day three backs. He has good size at 220 pounds and shows rare foot quickness for a big back, effortlessly evading would-be tacklers with quick lateral movement. He was drafted in the same general range as players like Booker, Perkins, Washington, and Howard despite sitting out the entire college season, which says something about his talent level compared with those other players. Although he didn't catch the ball often in college, I think he has a skill set that will make him a good receiving back. So what's the catch? Well Williams is a one speed runner who struggles to break big plays. He can make people miss in a phone booth, but he lacks the north-south explosiveness to fully exploit this talent. He ran in the 4.6 range at his pro day and did not break a lot of long runs at Arkansas. He would be natural replacement for LeSean McCoy given the considerable overlap in their skill sets, but a future starting spot is far from guaranteed.
20. WR Pharoh Cooper, Rams - I love him as a football player, but I don't know if his skill set will translate into pro success. He's athletic in the same sense that guys like Jeremy Hill and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are athletic, which is to say that he has very fluid and agile lower body movement despite being a "soft body" overall. There's minimal exlosiveness here and he seems to run heavy. He's probably just a slot guy in the NFL, which limits his upside unless he gets lots and lots of looks. That being said, he's another one of those classic "football player" types that you can't completely write off. You can point to Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry for optimistic comparisons, but those guys were 2nd round picks despite their warts whereas pro teams let Cooper slide all the way to the late 4th. I like his game, but he has to be viewed as a longshot with a modest ceiling.
Fifth Tier
The next few players tend to get picked ahead of other prospects that I like more, which is the main reason why none of them have ended up on any of my rosters. I feel that several players in this tier are among the most overrated in rookie drafts based on their ADP.
21. WR Braxton Miller, Texans - In theory he should be higher because the Texans spent a day two pick on him despite his limited experience at the position. Optimists may see a bit of Hines Ward in his build, skill set, and background. Miller is a very athletic player who can do fun things with the ball in space. However, his speed is just average and I don't know that he has the special athletic qualities required to thrive as an outside WR. I see his destiny as being in the slot, and slot WRs typically aren't premium FF assets. These factors have led me to believe that Miller's rookie draft ADP should be quite a bit lower than where his NFL draft slot and position would dictate alone.
22. RB Wendell Smallwood, Eagles - Smallwood is a graceful slasher with good quickness and agility. I think he's a better athlete than comparable NFL picks like Booker, Howard, and Perkins. He shows some nice flashes in terms of his footwork and cuts. At the same time, he lacks power and bulk. He tends to go down pretty easily on contact and will struggle to finish runs in the NFL. There are things I like about him, but I ultimately expect him to plateau as a backup at the next level.
23. RB DeAndre Washington, Raiders - I wrote a lot about this guy throughout his college career and am generally a fan of his game. He has very good cutting ability and elusiveness, which is one of the most important traits for a back trying to make the jump to the NFL. On the other hand, he's not very big or fast. The track record of sub 210 pound backs with ordinary speed and explosiveness is not great. When I look at Washington, my hunch is that he'll end up being a third down/committee back in the NFL. So while I like him and think he can produce in spurts, I'm inclined to believe that he'll end up as a complementary player in the NFL and not a long-term starter.
24. RB Paul Perkins, Giants - Perkins is the dime store Marshawn Lynch and even wears the same number as the former Cal/Seahawk great. Like Lynch, Perkins runs with springy east-west quickness. However, Perkins doesn't have Lynch's power or speed. At 5'10" and 208 pounds with 4.54 speed in the 40, Perkins falls into a "dead zone" of NFL backs, being too small to win with power and too slow to win with speed. His 5th round draft slot and lack of explosive plays in college are further testament to his mediocrity. I don't think he's a starter in the NFL, but Andre Williams has been a bust and Rashad Jennings is not an exceptional player. There's some opportunity in New York for Perkins if he can step in and surprise people. I do not think he is likely to hold much long-term FF value though.
25. RB Devontae Booker, Broncos - Booker is kind of like the poor man's version of Arian Foster. He's a versatile back who offers some quickness, power, and receiving ability. Booker was not healthy enough to work out for scouts at the combine or his pro day, but the results likely wouldn't have been amazing. Booker offers very little explosiveness and is a marginal fast-twitch athlete. Booker is similar to previous Broncos RB draft busts Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman in the sense of being a statistical overachiever who lacks elite physical traits for the pro game. I think he's strictly a backup in the NFL, but if CJ Anderson departs Denver then he may get a chance to fill that gap and prove himself.
OTHER PLAYERS:
QB Christian Hackenberg, Jets - Dreadful college stats seem to cancel out high draft slot. Seemingly has no instincts.
QB Jacoby Brissett, Patriots - Playing the New England QB roulette hasn't worked for me in the past (Kevin O'Connell, Ryan Mallett, and Jimmy Garopollo). We're still waiting for the "next Brady" and we might be waiting forever, but Brissett comes really cheap in rookie drafts and has good character/athletic traits. Worth a shot in deep leagues where you can get him for nothing. Not worth holding in shallow leagues.
RB Alex Collins, Seahawks - Overrated in college and may struggle to make the roster.
RB Jordan Howard, Bears - Big back with sloppy movement. He's a poor man's Rashard Mendenhall, which basically makes him the same player as Jonas Gray. Gray hasn't made it as a starter in the NFL and I don't think Howard will either. I was not surprised to see Howard slip in the draft because his clips were unimpressive.
RB Darius Jackson, Cowboys - Combine freak who tests athletic, but doesn't show fluidity on the field. I'm not expecting much from him, but if you can get him for a waiver spot then there's no harm in it.
RB Daniel Lasco, Saints - I don't like his clips that much, but he doesn't look bad necessarily and the workout numbers are interesting. He's an athletic guy. Worth a last round flyer or waiver pickup.
WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs - Peanut brain with suspect character and a tweener skill set. He's probably just a return man in the NFL if he sticks, but his speed and explosiveness are otherworldly. He may not be the same caliber of football player, but in purely athletic terms he's a better version of Tavon Austin or Brandin Cooks.
WR Kenny Lawler, Seahawks - He has great agility and his ability to adjust with the ball in the air might be the best in this WR class. He reminds me of Tyler Boyd in terms of ball skills and body control. However, he has a lean frame with just average explosiveness. He will need to battle for every reception, but there's Stevie Johnson potential if it clicks right. I don't expect him to make the team though. He should've stayed in school and tried to get bigger/faster.
WR Kolby Listenbee, Bills - Listenbee is a player with a pretty clear set of positives and negatives. On the plus side, he's one of the fastest receivers you will ever see, with times in the 10.0x range in the 100m. That speed translated into great per-target stats at the college level. Listenbee only caught 30 passes last year for TCU, but 9 of them went for 25+ yards. In 2014 he caught 41 passes, with 13 gains of 25+ yards. To put those numbers into perspective, his "big play percentage" of 31.0% over the past two seasons compares favorably to what elite deep threat Will Fuller did for Notre Dame in 2015 (Fuller had a big play % of 27.4%). Listenbee's per-target production is reminiscent of the player he most reminds me of: Mike Wallace. In his final season at Ole Miss, Wallace had 39 receptions with 10 long gains for a big play percentage of 25.6%. Wallace at Ole Miss caught 101 passes for 1910 yards (18.9 YPR) with a TD every 6.7 receptions. Listenbee at TCU caught 74 passes for 1432 yards (19.4 YPR) and a TD every 8.2 receptions. One thing that separates him from a lot of pure sprinter types is his aggressiveness with the ball in the air. Unlike past Bills track guys like Marquise Goodwin and TJ Graham, Listenbee has real ball skills and can win in a crowd. So what's the catch? Well, Mike Wallace was a third round pick whereas Listenbee slid all the way to the sixth. Neither player is a fluid athlete or a good route runner. Listenbee has poor lateral movement, balance, and change-of-direction. His movement is flat out ugly at times. Like Wallace, he needs the right system to hide his flaws and accentuate his strengths. He will never be a complete #1 WR, but he has a skill set that could lead to FF relevance if things break right for him.
TE Thomas Duarte, Dolphins - A poor man's Jordan Reed who is nominally a TE, but will really function more like a WR. He was productive in college and has adequate athletic ability to produce good stats if the team commits to him.
TE Austin Hooper, Falcons - I'm a Stanford fan and I don't like him very much. IMO not a very good athlete. Good ball skills, but marginal size and mobility. I think he can have value in deep leagues, but I'm not very high on him.
First Tier
1. RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys - No surprises here. Elliott looks like a safe bet to become a three down starter. I would feel good about picking him here, but don't be surprised if he ends up being merely good rather than incredible. He has good speed for a bigger back, but is otherwise average in terms of explosiveness. He was not a huge big play threat in college, ranking average to slightly below average in terms of his ability to break off long runs. Basically, he may end up being more Mark Ingram than Adrian Peterson, but his high draft slot is extremely impressive and his big name recognition ensures that he'll have enduring trade value even if he stumbles out of the blocks. I like him enough to take him with the #1 pick and feel good about it. I would not look to trade him despite the concerns I outlined.
Second Tier
2. WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings - Ugly combine numbers, but the tape tells a somewhat different story. Treadwell is actually very fast off the snap and has quick feet in his routes for a big/tall guy. He will not be a home run hitter in the NFL, but he can make a living all day as a reliable possession target on the short-intermediate stuff. I think he will be a solid #1 WR at the next level, albeit without the home run threat that other top receivers provide. More of a chain mover. He's still very young, which is an added plus. There may be more development left in the tank.
3. WR Corey Coleman, Browns - He has the production and athleticism you want in a WR. Some will question his situation and his size, but he's a good weight for his height and being the best receiver on a bad team can lead to a huge amount of targets. He fits the Antonio Brown mold as a waterbug type of receiver who is too explosive and athletic for corners to hang with. I don't view him as a lock, but he was the first WR drafted, his game clips are impressive, and he fits the bill in terms of measurables.
4. WR Josh Doctson, Redskins - He's an explosive leaper with great ball skills, height, and production. In terms of body type and style, AJ Green and Reggie Wayne are solid comparisons. Like those two, Docston has merely average speed and will not overwhelm people after the catch with quickness, explosiveness, or power. I found his tape less convincing than that of the two WRs ranked ahead of him here. I don't know if he'll be able to separate consistently against pro corners, but you have to respect the draft process and there's enough talent here to justify a top 4 pick in this class.
Third Tier
This is where things get ugly. While I'd generally feel okay about rostering any of my top 4 at his ADP, I can't say the same for the next tier. There's not a single player in this next group that I feel great about. In my opinion the difference in value between picks 4 and 5 is big whereas the difference in value between picks 5 and 14 is negligible. This is the worst I've ever felt about picks in the 1.06-1.12 range. There's just nothing there that excites me and I've generally sought to trade down (to no avail). With that out of the way...
5. RB Derrick Henry, Titans - For better or worse, this is one of the most unique backs to come along in a while. He is unusually tall with very long legs and a high-cut frame. The consequence of this is that he struggles to operate in small windows. That's typically a problem in the NFL, but Henry has nice lateral quickness in the open field and is a runaway locomotive when he hits his stride. Assuming that his team can give him a clean running lane, he could potentially do some great things. If the blocking breaks down, he will struggle to create on his own. He's not very proven as a receiver, which could limit his upside if he's unable to learn that facet of the game. Overall, he looks like a two down pounder with above average long speed and a boom-or-bust running style that will be heavily reliant on his team's ability to block for him. He has value, but carries considerable bust risk as well.
6. WR Will Fuller, Texans - Fuller's game is all about vertical explosiveness. He uses his low 4.3 speed to terrorize defenders deep. It only takes one lapse in coverage for Fuller to break a 40+ yard touchdown. This rare big play threat was likely the reason that the Texans selected Fuller. His other traits are average at best. He is very small and is not a reliable possession WR. Optimists will compare him to other slight speedsters like T.Y Hilton and DeSean Jackson. If he pans out, that's the type of receiver he might become. Naysayers will recognize similarities with Tedd Ginn, another first round pick with blazing speed who has failed to convert those traits into consistent receiving production. I find Fuller to be a limited player, but I also respect the draft slot enough not to bump him down too far below where the generic odds dictate he be.
7. WR Sterling Shepard, Giants - I like the production, workout numbers, and draft slot. I'm not wowed by his game clips though. He looks just okay to me. Nothing special. I'm not a fan of judging players by their school, but it may be worth mentioning that the Bob Stoops era of OU football has yielded a few of these undersized stat monsters who didn't thrive in the NFL (Mark Clayon, Ryan Broyles, etc). Although he's short, Shepard has a good weight for his height and can separate on a variety of routes. When I look at the total package, the player I'm most reminded of is Golden Tate. Tate has carved out a niche as a productive NFL player and Shepard could do the same. He can run every type of route and will be useful right away. He has a nice immediate opportunity as Beckham's sidekick.
8. WR Michael Thomas, Saints - Solid is the word that comes to mind when I think of Thomas. There's nothing I love about him. There's nothing I hate. He has above average height and decent strength. His agility is pretty good for a bigger guy. Overall, he looks like a solid #2 NFL WR without any single elite trait. His speed is just average and while he moves pretty well after the catch for a bigger WR, he's not truly dynamic in my estimation. I think he is a quality player with a modest upside that may depend on his supporting cast and usage to achieve strong statistical production. He reminds me of Arizona's Michael Floyd, but is more agile with less speed. I don't see him as a #1 NFL WR in a vacuum. More of a complementary piece. .
9. WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals - Boyd is one of those classic overachiever "football player" type of guys that scouts love. By NFL standards, he's a pedestrian athlete in terms of measurables. He has a slight frame, average speed, and no quantifiable explosiveness to speak of. However, he's a "gamer' type of guy like Randall Cobb or Keenan Allen whose on-field performance is greater than the sum of his athletic parts. He has excellent ball skills and body control. He will come down with tough catches in traffic. He was a jack-of-all-trades for Pittsburgh and they leaned on him heavilty. Still, I'm not very high on the overall package. I think his lack of standout physical traits will likely relegate him to a supporting role. His lack of explosion/strength will make it much harder for him to find separation against the superior DBs in the NFL. He has a chance to become a plus version of Marvin Jones if it works out, but he is lacking some of the ingredients of a #1 pro receiver.
10. QB Jared Goff, Rams - I've gone back-and-forth on the Wentz/Goff debate throughout the last week or two. Wentz has better size and athletic ability. Goff is the more refined and instinctive passer. Neither guy appears to be the total package, but history has shown us that the NFL is prone to overrating "tools" quarterbacks who lack great passing production and instincts (i.e. Kyle Boller, Vince Young, Jake Locker). Wentz seems better than those guys and may ultimately develop into a Bortles/Roethlisberger, but most people seem to agree that Goff is more proven and developed as a passer. That gives him the edge for me right now.
11. QB Carson Wentz, Eagles - Although there are some risk factors (production, age, level of competition), he seems to have a high ceiling and could become a top 5 dynasty QB if he can achieve his full potential. I like him here instead of the remaining second tier RBs and WRs, who seem quite mediocre.
12. TE Hunter Henry, Chargers - Henry isn't quite the athlete that recent TE prospects like Tyler Eifert and Eric Ebron were, and that's likely why he slid out of the first round of the NFL draft. He doesn't quite have the same explosiveness or precision of movement. On the other hand, he's still very mobile for his size and offers strong receiving skills to go along with his other attributes. While I don't see him dominating in the NFL, he strikes me as the type of guy who can yield years of solid mid-low level TE1 production. I think his floor is Kyle Rudolph while his ceiling is Jason Witten. Owners looking to hit a solid single or double instead of swinging for the fences on a mediocre RB/WR here should look towards Henry for a safe selection.
13. RB Kenyan Drake, Dolphins - Drake is a very unconventional back who offers some clear strengths and weaknesses. On the plus side, he possesses excellent speed and is a fluid and springy runner on the edges. Despite having long and gangly legs, he shows quick feet and good lateral agility. With his height and speed, he offers a unique dimension as a pass catcher. He can flex out wide and be used as a moving chess piece by his offensive coordinator. On the downside, Drake has a tall and lean frame with very long legs that make it hard for him to generate power in tight quarters. Most of his big plays in college came around the edge. When asked to do the dirty work up the middle, Drake seems like more of a feast-or-famine proposition. He suffered some injuries in college and may not have the right body type or durability to be an every-down guy. I think he is more likely to be a committee back than a real workhorse, but there's enough compelling traits here to justify a pick at or even above his rookie draft ADP. He was the third RB chosen and goes to a team with no proven starter. A David Johnson type of rookie year is possible, albeit far from guaranteed.
14. RB CJ Prosise, Seahawks - Prosise is a lot like Drake. Both look more like WRs than RBs at times. While Drake offers more "wow" factor and is a more elastic runner, Prosise is more compact and powerful, and may ultimately have a higher ceiling if he can hone the rough edges of his game. While he flashes good quickness at times, Prosise is not consistently decisive or elusive with his movements. He can be a hesitant runner. Despite weighing 220+ pounds, Prosise is not a particularly authoritative or powerful back. I've seen him compared to Matt Forte and David Johnson, but both backs were more consistent in demonstrating loose hips and elusiveness in college. The Seahawks are a good organization and they claim to have a clear plan for Prosise, which is very intriguing. There's a lot of upside here, but when I watch his highlights I am not yet convinced that he's more than a gadget player. I would draft him, but I wouldn't reach much higher than this to do so.
15. WR Leonte Carroo, Dolphins - An efficiency stats monster who physically looks the part of an NFL WR, Carroo offers a solid blend of size and explosiveness. While he only ran a 4.50 at the combine, his game speed seems much better and he was one of the best deep threats in college football last season. A whopping 30.8% of his catches in 2015 went for 20 or more yards. On the down side, he lacks height and length. He has short arms and a somewhat small catch radius. While explosive in a straight line, his east-west quickness is just average. Overall, Carroo's game is reminiscent of someone like Pierre Garcon. I think he can be a productive pro and he may have a higher FF ceiling than Shepard or Thomas. Has some character issues.
Fourth Tier
This is what you might call the "flawed, but worth a punt tier". All of these guys have issues, but they're all players that I harbor at least some interest in and would be interested in owning for the right price.
16. RB Kenneth Dixon, Ravens - Dixon is a solid back with no glaring weaknesses and no exceptional traits. He was a productive four year player at Louisiana Tech and offers enough power and mobility to step in and produce serviceable numbers as a rookie. For better or worse, he could be the Zac Stacy of this class. I think he has all the talent needed to be competent if thrust into duty. The issue with backs like this is that they have nothing to differentiate them from competition, so they struggle to win and keep starting roles. I could see taking Dixon higher than this if you were desperate for immediate production and/or if you had the mindset to flip him the minute his stock pops like Stacy's did, but his market price is a bit too rich for my taste. He usually goes between 6-10 in my drafts, which seems too high. I don't believe that he has starter talent in a vacuum, so what you're really buying is the opportunity, and opportunity in the NFL tends not to last very long for mediocre players. What happened in St. Louis with Stacy (and later Mason) is a great example.
17. QB Paxton Lynch, Denver - I didn't spend much time evaluating QBs this year and don't have much to say about Lynch besides the obvious. Big guy with NFL caliber athletic tools and solid college production in a gimmicky system. He is regarded as a raw prospect with a high ceiling who may need years to reach a decent level. Overall, he comes across as a slightly better version of the QB Denver let walk in the offseason: Brock Osweiler. Most people think Lynch has the talent to develop into a starter and the Broncos (and Cowboys) liked him enough to spend a first round pick on him, so I feel fine taking him off the board here after all the quality RB/WR prospects are spoken for.
18. WR Moritz Boehringer, Vikings - Most of the prospects in this range are mediocre talents with low ceilings. For those seeking boom-or-bust upside, Boehringer is an intriguing proposition. The German import has never played football against high level competition and his story comes across as a bit of a publicity stunt, but the athletic parts are intriguing and his 6th round draft slot is relatively impressive given his total lack of experience. This is a big target with rare speed who shows some signs of potentially becoming a capable route runner in the future. He'll be extremely raw out of the box and may struggle to even make the roster, but...the upside here is tremendous if he happens to achieve his full potential. A 5-10% chance of a top 15 dynasty WR is worth the price of admission here to me. One way or another, we'll look back on this ranking and laugh, because he'll probably either hit big or crash out entirely.
19. RB Jonathan Williams, Bills - Williams is my favorite of this year's day three backs. He has good size at 220 pounds and shows rare foot quickness for a big back, effortlessly evading would-be tacklers with quick lateral movement. He was drafted in the same general range as players like Booker, Perkins, Washington, and Howard despite sitting out the entire college season, which says something about his talent level compared with those other players. Although he didn't catch the ball often in college, I think he has a skill set that will make him a good receiving back. So what's the catch? Well Williams is a one speed runner who struggles to break big plays. He can make people miss in a phone booth, but he lacks the north-south explosiveness to fully exploit this talent. He ran in the 4.6 range at his pro day and did not break a lot of long runs at Arkansas. He would be natural replacement for LeSean McCoy given the considerable overlap in their skill sets, but a future starting spot is far from guaranteed.
20. WR Pharoh Cooper, Rams - I love him as a football player, but I don't know if his skill set will translate into pro success. He's athletic in the same sense that guys like Jeremy Hill and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are athletic, which is to say that he has very fluid and agile lower body movement despite being a "soft body" overall. There's minimal exlosiveness here and he seems to run heavy. He's probably just a slot guy in the NFL, which limits his upside unless he gets lots and lots of looks. That being said, he's another one of those classic "football player" types that you can't completely write off. You can point to Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry for optimistic comparisons, but those guys were 2nd round picks despite their warts whereas pro teams let Cooper slide all the way to the late 4th. I like his game, but he has to be viewed as a longshot with a modest ceiling.
Fifth Tier
The next few players tend to get picked ahead of other prospects that I like more, which is the main reason why none of them have ended up on any of my rosters. I feel that several players in this tier are among the most overrated in rookie drafts based on their ADP.
21. WR Braxton Miller, Texans - In theory he should be higher because the Texans spent a day two pick on him despite his limited experience at the position. Optimists may see a bit of Hines Ward in his build, skill set, and background. Miller is a very athletic player who can do fun things with the ball in space. However, his speed is just average and I don't know that he has the special athletic qualities required to thrive as an outside WR. I see his destiny as being in the slot, and slot WRs typically aren't premium FF assets. These factors have led me to believe that Miller's rookie draft ADP should be quite a bit lower than where his NFL draft slot and position would dictate alone.
22. RB Wendell Smallwood, Eagles - Smallwood is a graceful slasher with good quickness and agility. I think he's a better athlete than comparable NFL picks like Booker, Howard, and Perkins. He shows some nice flashes in terms of his footwork and cuts. At the same time, he lacks power and bulk. He tends to go down pretty easily on contact and will struggle to finish runs in the NFL. There are things I like about him, but I ultimately expect him to plateau as a backup at the next level.
23. RB DeAndre Washington, Raiders - I wrote a lot about this guy throughout his college career and am generally a fan of his game. He has very good cutting ability and elusiveness, which is one of the most important traits for a back trying to make the jump to the NFL. On the other hand, he's not very big or fast. The track record of sub 210 pound backs with ordinary speed and explosiveness is not great. When I look at Washington, my hunch is that he'll end up being a third down/committee back in the NFL. So while I like him and think he can produce in spurts, I'm inclined to believe that he'll end up as a complementary player in the NFL and not a long-term starter.
24. RB Paul Perkins, Giants - Perkins is the dime store Marshawn Lynch and even wears the same number as the former Cal/Seahawk great. Like Lynch, Perkins runs with springy east-west quickness. However, Perkins doesn't have Lynch's power or speed. At 5'10" and 208 pounds with 4.54 speed in the 40, Perkins falls into a "dead zone" of NFL backs, being too small to win with power and too slow to win with speed. His 5th round draft slot and lack of explosive plays in college are further testament to his mediocrity. I don't think he's a starter in the NFL, but Andre Williams has been a bust and Rashad Jennings is not an exceptional player. There's some opportunity in New York for Perkins if he can step in and surprise people. I do not think he is likely to hold much long-term FF value though.
25. RB Devontae Booker, Broncos - Booker is kind of like the poor man's version of Arian Foster. He's a versatile back who offers some quickness, power, and receiving ability. Booker was not healthy enough to work out for scouts at the combine or his pro day, but the results likely wouldn't have been amazing. Booker offers very little explosiveness and is a marginal fast-twitch athlete. Booker is similar to previous Broncos RB draft busts Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman in the sense of being a statistical overachiever who lacks elite physical traits for the pro game. I think he's strictly a backup in the NFL, but if CJ Anderson departs Denver then he may get a chance to fill that gap and prove himself.
OTHER PLAYERS:
QB Christian Hackenberg, Jets - Dreadful college stats seem to cancel out high draft slot. Seemingly has no instincts.
QB Jacoby Brissett, Patriots - Playing the New England QB roulette hasn't worked for me in the past (Kevin O'Connell, Ryan Mallett, and Jimmy Garopollo). We're still waiting for the "next Brady" and we might be waiting forever, but Brissett comes really cheap in rookie drafts and has good character/athletic traits. Worth a shot in deep leagues where you can get him for nothing. Not worth holding in shallow leagues.
RB Alex Collins, Seahawks - Overrated in college and may struggle to make the roster.
RB Jordan Howard, Bears - Big back with sloppy movement. He's a poor man's Rashard Mendenhall, which basically makes him the same player as Jonas Gray. Gray hasn't made it as a starter in the NFL and I don't think Howard will either. I was not surprised to see Howard slip in the draft because his clips were unimpressive.
RB Darius Jackson, Cowboys - Combine freak who tests athletic, but doesn't show fluidity on the field. I'm not expecting much from him, but if you can get him for a waiver spot then there's no harm in it.
RB Daniel Lasco, Saints - I don't like his clips that much, but he doesn't look bad necessarily and the workout numbers are interesting. He's an athletic guy. Worth a last round flyer or waiver pickup.
WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs - Peanut brain with suspect character and a tweener skill set. He's probably just a return man in the NFL if he sticks, but his speed and explosiveness are otherworldly. He may not be the same caliber of football player, but in purely athletic terms he's a better version of Tavon Austin or Brandin Cooks.
WR Kenny Lawler, Seahawks - He has great agility and his ability to adjust with the ball in the air might be the best in this WR class. He reminds me of Tyler Boyd in terms of ball skills and body control. However, he has a lean frame with just average explosiveness. He will need to battle for every reception, but there's Stevie Johnson potential if it clicks right. I don't expect him to make the team though. He should've stayed in school and tried to get bigger/faster.
WR Kolby Listenbee, Bills - Listenbee is a player with a pretty clear set of positives and negatives. On the plus side, he's one of the fastest receivers you will ever see, with times in the 10.0x range in the 100m. That speed translated into great per-target stats at the college level. Listenbee only caught 30 passes last year for TCU, but 9 of them went for 25+ yards. In 2014 he caught 41 passes, with 13 gains of 25+ yards. To put those numbers into perspective, his "big play percentage" of 31.0% over the past two seasons compares favorably to what elite deep threat Will Fuller did for Notre Dame in 2015 (Fuller had a big play % of 27.4%). Listenbee's per-target production is reminiscent of the player he most reminds me of: Mike Wallace. In his final season at Ole Miss, Wallace had 39 receptions with 10 long gains for a big play percentage of 25.6%. Wallace at Ole Miss caught 101 passes for 1910 yards (18.9 YPR) with a TD every 6.7 receptions. Listenbee at TCU caught 74 passes for 1432 yards (19.4 YPR) and a TD every 8.2 receptions. One thing that separates him from a lot of pure sprinter types is his aggressiveness with the ball in the air. Unlike past Bills track guys like Marquise Goodwin and TJ Graham, Listenbee has real ball skills and can win in a crowd. So what's the catch? Well, Mike Wallace was a third round pick whereas Listenbee slid all the way to the sixth. Neither player is a fluid athlete or a good route runner. Listenbee has poor lateral movement, balance, and change-of-direction. His movement is flat out ugly at times. Like Wallace, he needs the right system to hide his flaws and accentuate his strengths. He will never be a complete #1 WR, but he has a skill set that could lead to FF relevance if things break right for him.
TE Thomas Duarte, Dolphins - A poor man's Jordan Reed who is nominally a TE, but will really function more like a WR. He was productive in college and has adequate athletic ability to produce good stats if the team commits to him.
TE Austin Hooper, Falcons - I'm a Stanford fan and I don't like him very much. IMO not a very good athlete. Good ball skills, but marginal size and mobility. I think he can have value in deep leagues, but I'm not very high on him.
