Top 250 Forward observation (1 Viewer)

[Third]

I know it's a pasttime to nitpick the Top 250 forward and most don't really consider it to be all that definitive in determining true value of players.

Having said that, I was a bit puzzled to see Holt drop from WR1 to WR2 this week after his huge 3-TD game on Sunday.

Steve Smith had a nice game this weekend, but still.

 

[Ilov80s]

Torry Holt is a bum. The last 6 years have been a mirage...a mere statistical abberation. His numbers will balance back out. I wouldn't expect another TD from him untill 2011.

 

[my man otis]

it's all so close anyway. nitpick.

 

[Sea Bass]

I look forward to the Dodds report each week. I use it as a valuable resource instead of a source of debate.

Thanks again David!

 

[Dino]

S Smith has an easier schedule that may be why, but Torry Holt is more consistent and less injury prone, so personally I would pick Holt first.

One thing I noticed is that the top 250 does not always match the upgrades/downgrades. Also the line-up dominator is a different story, I have a pretty basic scoring system 6 points per Rec/Rush td, 4 pts for pass tds, 1pt/10yards rus/rec and 1pt/25yards passing, but there is quite a difference in the rankings, I believe that is because the LD seems to be more driven by the SOS.

Good examples are:

Denver Def, had a good game this week, they where an upgraded, but they are rated lower this week in the rankings.

SD Def, were upgraded, has looked solid all season long, but ATL is rated higher.

D Mason- has had 1 good game so far, has sucked most of the season, was downgraded, and has only fallen one spot in the rankings. Mason also seems to always be rated higher in the LD 20s vs 30s (guessing because of his SOS).

With that said I believe Dodds has done a better job with his weekly projections so far.

 

[The Jerk]

Don't forget the FORWARD part when trying to understand movement within the Top 250 Forward.

It is likely that Steve Smith moved past Holt because he is now on the other side of the Ravens, hence his average ppg ticks up slightly now that a lower weekly number has been removed from his projections.

Denver moves down a notch because they are now on the other side of a very favorable matchup vs. the Raiders, thus removing a higher weekly number from their remaining projections.

 

[SSOG]

Having said that, I was a bit puzzled to see Holt drop from WR1 to WR2 this week after his huge 3-TD game on Sunday. Steve Smith had a nice game this weekend, but still.

A "nice game"? Smith's game was probably better than Holt's. He didn't get the TDs, but those are so random, anyway. Yardage is the far more consistant measuring stick.

 

[cracKer]

Don't forget the FORWARD part when trying to understand movement within the Top 250 Forward.It is likely that Steve Smith moved past Holt because he is now on the other side of the Ravens, hence his average ppg ticks up slightly now that a lower weekly number has been removed from his projections.Denver moves down a notch because they are now on the other side of a very favorable matchup vs. the Raiders, thus removing a higher weekly number from their remaining projections.

bingo

 

[SSOG]

Having said that, I was a bit puzzled to see Holt drop from WR1 to WR2 this week after his huge 3-TD game on Sunday. Steve Smith had a nice game this weekend, but still.

A "nice game"? Smith's game was probably better than Holt's. He didn't get the TDs, but those are so random, anyway. Yardage is the far more consistant measuring stick.

Going further with this...Steve Smith = 8 catches on 11 targetsTorry Holt = 8 catches on 14 targetsSteve Smith = 189 yards (23.6 ypc, 17.2 yards per target)Torry Holt = 154 yards (19.3 ypc, 11.0 yards per target)Again, the three touchdowns were very nice from a fantasy standpoint, but in terms of which receiver was more impressive and looks better going forward, my money's on Smiff.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

We're picking nits here. Holt and Smith are obviously #1 and #2 this season, in fact I consider them 1a and 1b.

 

[Islander]

The trade values are puzzling. Are these based on a formula?

The main one I am questioning is the Bears D. They are obviously ranked #1 defense, but the trade value is only 191.

I would not trade them straight up for any of these:

DeAngelo Williams (261)

LenDale White (276)

Benson (284)

MBIII (308)

Leon Washington (341)

Desmond Clark (253)

etc. etc.

Of course pre-draft, we wait for the latter part of the draft before taking a defense because they are not as predictable as QBs, RBs, WRs, which is why the trade value of defenses is lower in general. But after 6 weeks, we can say defenses are a lot more predictable going forward than they were pre-season. Same for other positions you might say, but this is why whoever is ranked #1 at each position is more valuable now than in the preseason because some of the uncertainty has been removed (LT is now clearly ahead of LJ, S Alex, CJ is clearly not as valuable as Holt, etc.). If we were to draft today, the Bears would be picked a lot earlier than where the #1 defense was taken in our drafts.

In the leagues where I have the Bears, they are probably one of my five most valuable players because they dominate other defenses so much (high VBD).

Is someone having the Bears D hurt more by their bye week this week and having to start a team like the Dolphins, Patriots, etc., or is someone hurt more by having someone like Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson as RB1 on bye, and then having to start his RB3 like D Foster or F Taylor? Depends on scoring system, but not as obvious an answer as we would have thought in the preseason, huh?

 

[Banger]

The trade values are puzzling. Are these based on a formula? The main one I am questioning is the Bears D. They are obviously ranked #1 defense, but the trade value is only 191. I would not trade them straight up for any of theseeAngelo Williams (261)LenDale White (276)Benson (284)MBIII (308)Leon Washington (341)Desmond Clark (253)etc. etc.Of course pre-draft, we wait for the latter part of the draft before taking a defense because they are not as predictable as QBs, RBs, WRs, which is why the trade value of defenses is lower in general. But after 6 weeks, we can say defenses are a lot more predictable going forward than they were pre-season. Same for other positions you might say, but this is why whoever is ranked #1 at each position is more valuable now than in the preseason because some of the uncertainty has been removed (LT is now clearly ahead of LJ, S Alex, CJ is clearly not as valuable as Holt, etc.). If we were to draft today, the Bears would be picked a lot earlier than where the #1 defense was taken in our drafts. In the leagues where I have the Bears, they are probably one of my five most valuable players because they dominate other defenses so much (high VBD). Is someone having the Bears D hurt more by their bye week this week and having to start a team like the Dolphins, Patriots, etc., or is someone hurt more by having someone like Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson as RB1 on bye, and then having to start his RB3 like D Foster or F Taylor? Depends on scoring system, but not as obvious an answer as we would have thought in the preseason, huh?

It's funny because I had the same exact thought last night. I never paid much attention to the trade value column so I just assumed that I was missing something. The Bears in my mind are worth a WR1 right now, like DJax/Driver, they are scary good.

 

[meanjoegreen]

S Smith has an easier schedule that may be why, but Torry Holt is more consistent and less injury prone, so personally I would pick Holt first.

I don't think Smith has an easier schedule than Holt.Holt

Chargers

Chiefs

Seahawks

Panthers

49ers

Cardinals

Bears

Raiders

Washington

Vikings

Smith

Bengals

Dallas

Tampa Bay

Rams

Washington

Philadelphia

Giants

Steelers

Falcons

Saints

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

When you're dealing with the TOP wide receivers, I don't even look at upcoming schedules. Again, this is with the TOP receivers. They will get theirs regardless and I wouldn't rank them based on schedule.

Boldin had a decent game against the scary Bears on Monday night, no?

I think upcoming schedules have more of an impact on RB rankings than WR rankings.

 

[ukshane]

How did Chester Taylor drop from 10th to 15th after his bye week. Did 5 other RB's leapfrog him or is their an injury I wasn't aware of?

 

[One]

We're picking nits here. Holt and Smith are obviously #1 and #2 this season, in fact I consider them 1a and 1b.

no kidding. I didn't even want to step into this one since it sounds too much like the whole "LJ isn't gonna be the #1 RB this year so he's a BUST" threads. Both recievers are amazing fantasy players.. who cares who comes out on top by a sliver.Me? I'd rather have Holt. Smith and his hammy problems give me the creeps.

 

[One]

When you're dealing with the TOP wide receivers, I don't even look at upcoming schedules. Again, this is with the TOP receivers. They will get theirs regardless and I wouldn't rank them based on schedule. Boldin had a decent game against the scary Bears on Monday night, no? I think upcoming schedules have more of an impact on RB rankings than WR rankings.

 

[videoguy505]

The trade values are puzzling. Are these based on a formula? The main one I am questioning is the Bears D. They are obviously ranked #1 defense, but the trade value is only 191. I would not trade them straight up for any of theseeAngelo Williams (261)LenDale White (276)Benson (284)MBIII (308)Leon Washington (341)Desmond Clark (253)etc. etc.Of course pre-draft, we wait for the latter part of the draft before taking a defense because they are not as predictable as QBs, RBs, WRs, which is why the trade value of defenses is lower in general. But after 6 weeks, we can say defenses are a lot more predictable going forward than they were pre-season. Same for other positions you might say, but this is why whoever is ranked #1 at each position is more valuable now than in the preseason because some of the uncertainty has been removed (LT is now clearly ahead of LJ, S Alex, CJ is clearly not as valuable as Holt, etc.). If we were to draft today, the Bears would be picked a lot earlier than where the #1 defense was taken in our drafts. In the leagues where I have the Bears, they are probably one of my five most valuable players because they dominate other defenses so much (high VBD). Is someone having the Bears D hurt more by their bye week this week and having to start a team like the Dolphins, Patriots, etc., or is someone hurt more by having someone like Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson as RB1 on bye, and then having to start his RB3 like D Foster or F Taylor? Depends on scoring system, but not as obvious an answer as we would have thought in the preseason, huh?

It's funny because I had the same exact thought last night. I never paid much attention to the trade value column so I just assumed that I was missing something. The Bears in my mind are worth a WR1 right now, like DJax/Driver, they are scary good.

Bears D is the 2nd highest scoring player in my leauge, behind only McNabb, just ahead of Bulger, and ahead of Manning 126 to 110. The next highest D has 110, the third, 77... they have outscored the third-best team in the position by 60%, and their upcoming schedule isn't anything to be concerned about... SF, Mia, Jets, Vikings, Bucs, Lions, Packers all on the horizon.