Top 5 Players you are avoiding (1 Viewer)

[Buckeyedawgs]

Here is a list of my top 5 valued guys won't be drafted on any of my teams because there DRAFT value far exceeds actual value.

Randy Moss... check his playoff stats last year and I need to say nothing more.

Reggie Bush.... never owned him and never will. as explained above by others.

LJ.... I got smart and traded him near the deadline 2006 both Dynasty teams I owned him when his value had hit a max hi IMO. Many owners called me nuts at that time! Still looking like genious on that one especially considering what I got out of him. He will be retired or damaged goods by time KC gets rebuilt if he's not already.

Chad... If he falls real bad I'd might gamble as WR-2 OR 3 but the dude has never won me championships the few times in past I did own him as a WR 1 and I doubt very much he will fall low enough even with the current situation. AJ falls in this catergory too but I won't list him here for two reasons. 1. I've always avoided him and 2. Isn't his fault. It's the offence he plays in and previous Carr-a-sack factored in. Scaub did his best to try to change my opinion of him but still injuries and consistency I desire has never been there and probably never will be there with this dude to be worthy of his current draft value!

FWP- HE LEAD LEAGUE IN Rushing YARDS when he got hurt last year. Though lead league in loseing fantasy games for us I bet. Told myself I would never own him again even before they drafted Mendenhall. 2 TD'S a year just doesn't get it done from a Fantasy standpoint for a RB-1. Even with him falling to his current 4th round value I am avoiding him regardless how low he falls.

I left out qb's for several reasons. 1. so many factors from year to year flucorate them if your not named Peyton. 2. RB's and the hi end WR'S are so overvalued anymore you can always find decent deals on qb's mid rounds. 3. The top qb's current value might even be understated. I am not afraid to grab a top tier qb fast. I also am not afraid to forget about qb's until much later in draft. Like to keep my competition guessing! hehe

 

[switz]

Well, I already stated it in the OP and above in another post, but........I will try and mention it again.

While any discussion is good, this wasn't meant to be an "overvalued" thread.

Someone like Chad Johnson, on the other hand, is someone that you may choose to avoid even if available far lower than his ADP if you fear he might hold out. Javon Walker might be someone you choose to avoid because you don't trust his knee at all and would much prefer a much lesser but safer WR. McNabb may be someone you are avoiding because you just don't want to deal with the headache of his injuries.

Not trying to be difficult here, but this was meant to find a few guys that have some red flags so that we can possibly discuss some of those red flags, not guys that are going to be solid players but just taken earlier than you'd take them.

Problem is that at the right price, I think everyone is draftable. So you can't take ADP out of the equation.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I left out qb's for several reasons. 1. so many factors from year to year flucorate them if your not named Peyton. 2. RB's and the hi end WR'S are so overvalued anymore you can always find decent deals on qb's mid rounds. 3. The top qb's current value might even be understated. I am not afraid to grab a top tier qb fast. I also am not afraid to forget about qb's until much later in draft. Like to keep my competition guessing! hehe

I am with this, this year. If I don't get Brady, Manning, Brees, Romo, or Ben, I will be picking a couple after 13 or 14 are taken.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Well, I already stated it in the OP and above in another post, but........I will try and mention it again.

While any discussion is good, this wasn't meant to be an "overvalued" thread.

Someone like Chad Johnson, on the other hand, is someone that you may choose to avoid even if available far lower than his ADP if you fear he might hold out. Javon Walker might be someone you choose to avoid because you don't trust his knee at all and would much prefer a much lesser but safer WR. McNabb may be someone you are avoiding because you just don't want to deal with the headache of his injuries.

Not trying to be difficult here, but this was meant to find a few guys that have some red flags so that we can possibly discuss some of those red flags, not guys that are going to be solid players but just taken earlier than you'd take them.

Problem is that at the right price, I think everyone is draftable. So you can't take ADP out of the equation.

Exactly. Unless you feel that a guy doesn't even belong on a single team's roster, it just seems to be parsing words when trying to distinguish between guys that you think are overvalued and guys that you will avoid drafting. I don't care how much you hate Chad Johnson. If he's there in the 8th round, you're going to take him. Period. If it's the last round of the draft and you have to choose between Donovan McNabb or Brady Quinn, you're going to take McNabb.

 

[gianmarco]

Well, I already stated it in the OP and above in another post, but........I will try and mention it again.

While any discussion is good, this wasn't meant to be an "overvalued" thread.

Someone like Chad Johnson, on the other hand, is someone that you may choose to avoid even if available far lower than his ADP if you fear he might hold out. Javon Walker might be someone you choose to avoid because you don't trust his knee at all and would much prefer a much lesser but safer WR. McNabb may be someone you are avoiding because you just don't want to deal with the headache of his injuries.

Not trying to be difficult here, but this was meant to find a few guys that have some red flags so that we can possibly discuss some of those red flags, not guys that are going to be solid players but just taken earlier than you'd take them.

Problem is that at the right price, I think everyone is draftable. So you can't take ADP out of the equation.

Exactly. Unless you feel that a guy doesn't even belong on a single team's roster, it just seems to be parsing words when trying to distinguish between guys that you think are overvalued and guys that you will avoid drafting. I don't care how much you hate Chad Johnson. If he's there in the 8th round, you're going to take him. Period. If it's the last round of the draft and you have to choose between Donovan McNabb or Brady Quinn, you're going to take McNabb.

Ok, again, I understand what you're trying to say here, so let me explain it another way. This is NOT meant to be who is overvalued. So, if this helps, try to think of it this way.Which 5 players have to fall the farthest below their ADP for you to draft them?

I mean, I don't understand why this has to be a difficult concept to get. We can argue semantics, but the point of what I was trying to stir up for discussion should be obvious. Use the above question phrased that way to help. Therefore, while you think Brady in the 1st is too early, but Brady in the 3rd is ok vs. Chad Johnson in the 3rd is too high and he'd have to be around in the 6th or 7th to consider him. Does that help visualize what I'm trying to get at? I hope it does. I mean, it's obvious that some of these guys are draftable at some point.

 

[ThePittbully]

1. Chad Johnson - not a tenth as good as he thinks he is.

Thats a pretty big exaggeration. He thinks he's better than he really is, and he's definitely a headcase, but he's one hell of a WR and an elite talent when his head is on straight

5. Frank Gore/MJD/Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham - one year wonders

Gore and MJD have both finished top 15 or better two years in a row...so one year wonder already doesnt apply. Gore did it in an absolutely terrible offense this year, and both players missed at least 1 game this past season. MYTH BUSTED

Speaking of Gore, what is with all the people listing him as an avoid at all cost, citing that he'll be on a bad offense. Did you see that offense last year??? How could it possibly be worse than that, and he still posted decent stats. His ADP could possibly be higher than where he finishes, but avoid at all cost is ridiculous.

And I'm pretty surprised NO ONE believes in Ryan Grant, I have a feeling alot of people will be eating those words come end of next season

 

[gianmarco]

1. Chad Johnson - not a tenth as good as he thinks he is.

Thats a pretty big exaggeration. He thinks he's better than he really is, and he's definitely a headcase, but he's one hell of a WR and an elite talent when his head is on straight

5. Frank Gore/MJD/Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham - one year wonders

Gore and MJD have both finished top 15 or better two years in a row...so one year wonder already doesnt apply. Gore did it in an absolutely terrible offense this year, and both players missed at least 1 game this past season. MYTH BUSTED

Speaking of Gore, what is with all the people listing him as an avoid at all cost, citing that he'll be on a bad offense. Did you see that offense last year??? How could it possibly be worse than that, and he still posted decent stats. His ADP could possibly be higher than where he finishes, but avoid at all cost is ridiculous.

And I'm pretty surprised NO ONE believes in Ryan Grant, I have a feeling alot of people will be eating those words come end of next season

Umm, I believe in Ryan Grant. In fact, he easily gets my vote for a player that's been ranked outside of the top 10 as the best chance of cracking the top 5. Every year we see RB's come out of nowhere and put up nice stats and most of them aren't able to sustain it. They just don't look that talented/good on the field. Graham comes to mind. But Grant looked fantastic running the ball, IMO, and I have a feeling he's going to have an extraordinary 2008.

 

[Liquid Tension]

i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen.

And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?

You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.

You seemed smarter than this. The leagues I'm in allow for 6 or more teams to make the playoffs, I suspect it's the same with yours (otherwise, week 14 and maybe 15 would be the regular season). If Portis, who was a top 5 player for the 2007 season, and #6 in the last 6 weeks (I don't have a good way to check how a player scored weeks 1-13, and don't care), ruined your season, you might want to try drafting better after the 1st round. Someone once said you won't win the league in your first round, but you can lose it - and Portis is one of the safest bets you can make after pick 1.05.

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

 

[teamroc]

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Manning has only beent he #1 FF QB in the NFL once in his career. Now that's not a knock on him. But he's not a lock to be #1, in fact he rarely is. But it does show that you can get lots of upside at QB later in the draft. I got Brady in the midrounds last year, and it worked out okay. I also did draft Manning at 1.10 in one league. And he was great. Like the guy said, once your stud RBs run out, you look QB or WR. I'm not sure I'd take Manning at 1.06. I'd probably let people jump on Manning/Brady, then grab a Brees/Romo a little later. One thing I did enjoy about drafting Manning, was only drafting 1 QB. I got to take another sleeper with the pick. I did the same with TE. I had a ton of WRs which really helped me on the bye weeks.

 

[teamroc]

One of the most entertaining posts I have ever read...please don't go into cardiac arrest over something I posted...I think the problem is you know its true. So now th eproblem isn't Portis but Joe Gibbs...OK, but is Jim Zorn going to turn heads as the HC? Portis also has over 1,700 carries...it's not the age with him but the mileage. I just am not excited about Portis but if guys want to take him in the top5 in redrafts, go for it. And to respond to what you wrote about Stewart...DeAngelo was putting together seasons at Memphis the way LT was whipping them up at TCU and I still believe if DeAngelo were actually the starter and was used as the 1st round RB he was drafted as that he would be able to show what he can really do. You talk about Gibbs being a failure, I think FOx has really been a poor HC over the past couple of seasons as well.Good Luck to you in the Fall

Thanks.I never said Portis was a victim of anything. I said he's been great despite Gibbs (when he fell to RB11). Without Gibbs, he was top 6 every year (take away Gibbs year and injury year). You can argue the Fox thing all day. If Stewart is the real deal, Fox won't do much to slow him down. As for Portis, being top 5. I didn't even argue that. I just found it hilarious you were knocking Portis LAST YEAR. He had a great year. You were cherry picking all these laughable stats trying to show he didn't have a good year. And as I read on, you're pretty much geting killed in this thread. David slapped you around 3-4 times, so I'm not going to kick you when you're down.I agree Portis comes with some risk this year, but he's very consistant, and when you look at flaws of the RB5-10 range, Portis holds up very well. As David said, sure you can knock his 2008 outlook. But you talk about how he didn't have a great year last year? 3rd round RB puts up 1,600 and 11 tds? RB 4? Come on. It was a great year. You seem to spew some decent opinions overall, but man every 2-3 weeks you just totally #### the bed.

 

[Liquid Tension]

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Manning has only beent he #1 FF QB in the NFL once in his career. Now that's not a knock on him. But he's not a lock to be #1, in fact he rarely is. But it does show that you can get lots of upside at QB later in the draft. I got Brady in the midrounds last year, and it worked out okay. I also did draft Manning at 1.10 in one league. And he was great. Like the guy said, once your stud RBs run out, you look QB or WR. I'm not sure I'd take Manning at 1.06. I'd probably let people jump on Manning/Brady, then grab a Brees/Romo a little later. One thing I did enjoy about drafting Manning, was only drafting 1 QB. I got to take another sleeper with the pick. I did the same with TE. I had a ton of WRs which really helped me on the bye weeks.

LT2 doesn't finish number 1 all the time but he is the #1 pick...point is that every year the draft dominator tells you Manning should be taken in the mid 1st round (scoring rules may vary) and every year Manning justifies that spot and he has NEVER been a bust when year after year about half the RB's end up busting.

 

[ThePittbully]

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Manning has only beent he #1 FF QB in the NFL once in his career. Now that's not a knock on him. But he's not a lock to be #1, in fact he rarely is. But it does show that you can get lots of upside at QB later in the draft. I got Brady in the midrounds last year, and it worked out okay. I also did draft Manning at 1.10 in one league. And he was great. Like the guy said, once your stud RBs run out, you look QB or WR. I'm not sure I'd take Manning at 1.06. I'd probably let people jump on Manning/Brady, then grab a Brees/Romo a little later. One thing I did enjoy about drafting Manning, was only drafting 1 QB. I got to take another sleeper with the pick. I did the same with TE. I had a ton of WRs which really helped me on the bye weeks.

FBG scoring he's been the #1 three times since 2002. He's been in the top 5 since 1999...1999. He's finished top 3 every year since 2002. Since 2000 he's averaged 33.5 TD's a year and 4219 passing yards a year. Who's a safer pick than that? Personally I dont know if I would select him at 1.6, but I could certainly understand it if someone did.

 

[switz]

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Manning has only beent he #1 FF QB in the NFL once in his career. Now that's not a knock on him. But he's not a lock to be #1, in fact he rarely is. But it does show that you can get lots of upside at QB later in the draft. I got Brady in the midrounds last year, and it worked out okay. I also did draft Manning at 1.10 in one league. And he was great. Like the guy said, once your stud RBs run out, you look QB or WR. I'm not sure I'd take Manning at 1.06. I'd probably let people jump on Manning/Brady, then grab a Brees/Romo a little later. One thing I did enjoy about drafting Manning, was only drafting 1 QB. I got to take another sleeper with the pick. I did the same with TE. I had a ton of WRs which really helped me on the bye weeks.

FBG scoring he's been the #1 three times since 2002. He's been in the top 5 since 1999...1999. He's finished top 3 every year since 2002. Since 2000 he's averaged 33.5 TD's a year and 4219 passing yards a year. Who's a safer pick than that? Personally I dont know if I would select him at 1.6, but I could certainly understand it if someone did.

Don't bother... Manning is a guy people love to hate... jealousy I think.

 

[Riffraff]

Carson Palmer is another guy that goes too early. He is #5 on FBG ranking.

I was comparing his stats to a guy you can get 5 rounds later: Rivers.

I know I'm cherry picking the weeks here, but I wanted to see how Rivers did after Chambers settled into the offense and learned the playbook.

Weeks 11 through 17, Carson outscored Rivers by a little over 4 points (decimal scoring, all yards count).

Carson had all his WRs (Henry was back from suspension), but Rivers played without Gates for a few games.

I left the "meaningless" week 17 in since the Chargers were playing for play-off position. Rivers played 3 quarters. Palmer played all 4.

Palmer had a field day (316 and 3) against the mighty Dolphins that week. Rivers played the totally awesome Raiders.

So, take this week out if you choose to. If you do, Rivers then outscored Carson by 6 points during weeks 11 thru 16.

Either way, Palmer wasn't all that impressive to be drafted with such high regard (#5 FBG ranking, finished the #9 QB over-all, and #12 over the last 6 weeks).

Rivers (#14 FBG ranking, finished the #15 QB, and was #14 over the last 6 weeks) is set about right.

Looks like #5 thru #15 are all about equal. Seems better to wait a few rounds if you don't get Brady, Manning, Romo, or Brees.

 

[jurb26]

I'll be avoiding:

1. Car RBs

2. Chad Johnson

3. Arz QBs

4. Earnest Graham

5. Ryan Grant

 

[-OZ-]

i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen.

And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?

You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.

You seemed smarter than this. The leagues I'm in allow for 6 or more teams to make the playoffs, I suspect it's the same with yours (otherwise, week 14 and maybe 15 would be the regular season). If Portis, who was a top 5 player for the 2007 season, and #6 in the last 6 weeks (I don't have a good way to check how a player scored weeks 1-13, and don't care), ruined your season, you might want to try drafting better after the 1st round. Someone once said you won't win the league in your first round, but you can lose it - and Portis is one of the safest bets you can make after pick 1.05.

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Did you even read what you bolded?

 

[Donnybrook]

The guys I am avoiding in Dynasty mostly due to their inflated ADPs.

Steven Jackson

Aaron Rodgers

Willis McGahee

Anthony Gonzales

Roddy White

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll be avoiding:3. Arz QBs

I might not be so quick to ignore this one. Warner ranked 10th last year and didn't play at all (or played like a series) in 3 games. A Leinart/Warner combo would be pretty cheap and could approach Top 5 numbers. I don't think Leianrt will be as good as Warner was, but I think there is potential for a decent ROI on this situation. I know the mantra was run the ball a lot, but that never really materialized. Maybe that will happen this year instead, but ARI QB will be pretty cheap to acquire/draft.

 

[jurb26]

I'll be avoiding:3. Arz QBs

I might not be so quick to ignore this one. Warner ranked 10th last year and didn't play at all (or played like a series) in 3 games. A Leinart/Warner combo would be pretty cheap and could approach Top 5 numbers. I don't think Leianrt will be as good as Warner was, but I think there is potential for a decent ROI on this situation. I know the matra was run the ball a lot, but that never really materialized. Maybe that will happen this year instead, but ARI QB will be pretty cheap to acquire/draft.

One of the main reasons I am going to be avoiding them is because I don't want to tie up 2 roster spots on just the Arz QB.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I'll be avoiding:3. Arz QBs

I might not be so quick to ignore this one. Warner ranked 10th last year and didn't play at all (or played like a series) in 3 games. A Leinart/Warner combo would be pretty cheap and could approach Top 5 numbers. I don't think Leianrt will be as good as Warner was, but I think there is potential for a decent ROI on this situation. I know the matra was run the ball a lot, but that never really materialized. Maybe that will happen this year instead, but ARI QB will be pretty cheap to acquire/draft.

I mean this as a serious question, did you see Leinart last year? Warner looked great the 2nd half, but still didn't lead them to the playoffs with a Mickey Mouse 2nd half schedule. That said, Leinart's definitely the guy here (sink or swim). However, there was absolutely nothing in 2008 to say he even belongs in the league. He looked like David Carr/Rob Johnson wrapped into one. (Slow decision making, bad footwork, unecessarily coming out of the pocket). Leinart isn't the guy in 2008 because he deserves to be. He's the guy here because he was drafted to be the face of the franchise.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll be avoiding:3. Arz QBs

I might not be so quick to ignore this one. Warner ranked 10th last year and didn't play at all (or played like a series) in 3 games. A Leinart/Warner combo would be pretty cheap and could approach Top 5 numbers. I don't think Leianrt will be as good as Warner was, but I think there is potential for a decent ROI on this situation. I know the matra was run the ball a lot, but that never really materialized. Maybe that will happen this year instead, but ARI QB will be pretty cheap to acquire/draft.

I mean this as a serious question, did you see Leinart last year? Warner looked great the 2nd half, but still didn't lead them to the playoffs with a Mickey Mouse 2nd half schedule. That said, Leinart's definitely the guy here (sink or swim). However, there was absolutely nothing in 2008 to say he even belongs in the league. He looked like David Carr/Rob Johnson wrapped into one. (Slow decision making, bad footwork, unecessarily coming out of the pocket). Leinart isn't the guy in 2008 because he deserves to be. He's the guy here because he was drafted to be the face of the franchise.

Are you referring to watching Leinart in 2007 or 2006? IIRC, I saw the Cards/Seahawks game where Leinart had 300 passing yards last year and he looked ok. Other than two other starts, he barely played and was hurt. If you mean 2006, he didn't look great when I watched him play.I suspect either of two things will happen. 1) Leinart does well enough to stay QB for the season or 2) Leinart doesn't play so well and the team hangs around long enough in the playoff hunt that they have to play Warner to justify making a playoff push.Not everyone plays in the same type of leagues. For example, I play in several 16-team leagues and the ARI QB tandem would actually be a good option. I also play in leagues that start two QBs, so obviously any QB depth is a good thing. Similarly, I play in a lot of large roster Survivor leagues, and that's another way to get some QB insurance on the cheap if you invested in other positions.Overall, I'm not saying having Leinart/Warner is an ideal situation or one to seek out and pursue. But IMO they are at least a consideration and IMO not one to totally discount and list as a situation to 100% ignore.

 

[teamramrod]

Here is the dealio...

I am taking some crap in SSL IV because i don't post in the SP. Well I have a job and don't live in my mom's basement so my time here is limited. But here is my contribution.

1. Craig Nall..... I hear he is a FA and unsigned. This is a shout out to my boy, Construx-Boy. So '06 baby.

2. Joey Harrington. Never, ever and I mean EVAH, draft Jo Jo. [lifelong Lions fan here] IF it is round 32 adn you still need a QB, draft Testeverde before Jo Jo, he will probably come back for some team somewhere and still do better than Jo Jo.

3. TJ Duckett. Last year he stood on the sidelines, carried a clipboard and did squat....wait, WHAT!!! Seattle did WHAT, for HOW long, for HOW MUCH?? Gawd, you just made Matt Millen look good.

4. John Beck. The organization is behind me. The coach is behind me. The GM is behind me. By the way Mr. Henne, where would you like me to carry your gear?

:RUM ROLL PLEASE::

5. Any Lions player. I know it has been said before, but for criss sakes, what we roll out onto the awesome rubber grass at Ford Field is enough to make us shout, THANK YOU SIR MAY I HAVE ANOTHER. It makes us drink in the first quarter, not beer, not shots, but passing the half gallon of Old Granddad around and taking long, painful pulls from it. It reminds us that one year we went 2-14. One of the 2 was against the transvestites from Tampa Bay. THEY HAVE BEEN TO THE PROMISED LAND SINCE!!!! We have not. The team that Millen built leaves us wanting for the days of....please if you have a heart condition or are pregnant, close your browser and don't scroll down........

Wayne Fontes and Scott Mitchell. ::Insert picture of Macauly Caulkin with hands on his cheeks:: The ones on his face perv.

Those are my five to avoid.

Just my two cents.

Peace.

 

[teamramrod]

Here is the dealio...I am taking some crap in SSL IV because i don't post in the SP. Well I have a job and don't live in my mom's basement so my time here is limited. But here is my contribution.Peace.

Actually, here are my real 5.1. McNabb. I have heard that Joe Thighsman is not going to cover any Eagles game because he is afraid to hear that sound again.2. McFadden. Blockers!!! Blockers!! We are talking about BLOCKERS!!!! 3. Shockey. You pull out the stick that stirs the drink and what happens? RINGS ALL AROUND!!!! I know that FF is all about individual performance, but those are created with a little help from teammates. I just don't think that Shockey can do it. He called his coach stupid, but who won the last game of the year? That idiot. I don't think what ever team that picks him up will give him the touches to make him a stud. Too many better, young, hungry and team focused TEs out there. Think TO in Philly.4. SJax. Ok. so last year the Oline was hurt etc etc etc. But this year, Bulger is older, the WRs are slower, and the Oline is recovering. Oh yea, and a year older. Now I may not be a defensive genius, but 2 guys on SJax, 2 on Bulger and the Rams O will die. I see a lot of touches for SJax, but I see just as many 2 yard gain, 1 yard gain, -1 yard gain, punt. See Shaun Alexander in '07.Now here is the real scoop.5. Roy Williams. I would not pick him with 20.16 in a 16 team, 20 round league. Contact is ending. Lions are run focused. Kitna prays after a concussion. Matt Millen does not know what an Oline is. Calvin and Furry will be sucking up touches. Kevin Smith ( can we freakin get a RB NOT named Kevin?) will get some as well. Roy = Decoy. And he will accept that role. He will not lay his precious body on the line when some crazy GM like the one in Seattle is willing to sell the state to pick him up soon.My two cents.Peace.

 

[BusterTBronco]

1. Marvin Harrison

2. Tory Holt

3. Roy Williams

4. Jeremy Shockey

5. Donald Driver

 

[munchkin]

In my Dynasty League I would not want to trade for these players:

Javon Walker; bad attitude and health concerens

Chris Chambers; admittedly his upside is higher in SD but I just never liked his inconsistent game

Denver RB's; very unsettled situation which may sort itself out by the end of camp

Vince Young; no one on that team can catch a pass

Santana Moss; effort, what effort

 

[dmac37]

1. Marvin Harrison

2. Tory Holt

3. Roy Williams

4. Jeremy Shockey

5. Donald Driver

For what you pay I think Driver will be a major bargin this year. Yes Jennings is the future but I think for at least this year it is more like 1 & 1A for Driver and Jennings. Driver still has been getting the most looks/receptions and should still be the first read for a young QB to go to. His 2 TD's last year have people scared off but this does not tell the whole picture. He was still getting red zone targets, TD's can be very random.

 

[Liquid Tension]

i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen.

And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?

You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.

You seemed smarter than this. The leagues I'm in allow for 6 or more teams to make the playoffs, I suspect it's the same with yours (otherwise, week 14 and maybe 15 would be the regular season). If Portis, who was a top 5 player for the 2007 season, and #6 in the last 6 weeks (I don't have a good way to check how a player scored weeks 1-13, and don't care), ruined your season, you might want to try drafting better after the 1st round. Someone once said you won't win the league in your first round, but you can lose it - and Portis is one of the safest bets you can make after pick 1.05.

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Did you even read what you bolded?

Uh, yeah...and your point is what? Did I say I disagreed with you about Portis? No, I was just pointing out that if you want a safe pick that will get you a lot of points (and actually more in differential), Manning is way overlooked in these circles even though the draft dominator ranks him in the mid 1st round AND you don't have even close the injury issues you have with a RB.I take Manning every year and I always make the final 4. It is really surprising to me that taking manning isn't more mainstream; but it is good for me. Yes, occasionally you grab Brees later, but if you are stuck piecing QB's together it is much more costly than piecing RB's together. there are plenty of middle of the road RBBC guys that give you less point differential than a QB to Manning, plus, there are always the Grants and Grahams that pop up every year.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I'll be avoiding:3. Arz QBs

I might not be so quick to ignore this one. Warner ranked 10th last year and didn't play at all (or played like a series) in 3 games. A Leinart/Warner combo would be pretty cheap and could approach Top 5 numbers. I don't think Leianrt will be as good as Warner was, but I think there is potential for a decent ROI on this situation. I know the matra was run the ball a lot, but that never really materialized. Maybe that will happen this year instead, but ARI QB will be pretty cheap to acquire/draft.

Take a look at who was the highest scoring QB for the last 8 weeks of the year? Warner was in my league!

 

[ThePittbully]

Here is the dealio...3. TJ Duckett. Last year he stood on the sidelines, carried a clipboard and did squat....wait, WHAT!!! Seattle did WHAT, for HOW long, for HOW MUCH?? Gawd, you just made Matt Millen look good.Just my two cents.Peace.

I actually think TJ will be a value this year. He should get most of the goal line work and rack up a some TD's, and he also averaged 5.2 yards a carry last year with the Lions, albeit on only 65 carries

 

[Andy Dufresne]

1. Chad Johnson - not a tenth as good as he thinks he is.

Thats a pretty big exaggeration. He thinks he's better than he really is, and he's definitely a headcase, but he's one hell of a WR and an elite talent when his head is on straight

5. Frank Gore/MJD/Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham - one year wonders

Gore and MJD have both finished top 15 or better two years in a row...so one year wonder already doesnt apply. Gore did it in an absolutely terrible offense this year, and both players missed at least 1 game this past season. MYTH BUSTED

Speaking of Gore, what is with all the people listing him as an avoid at all cost, citing that he'll be on a bad offense. Did you see that offense last year??? How could it possibly be worse than that, and he still posted decent stats. His ADP could possibly be higher than where he finishes, but avoid at all cost is ridiculous.

And I'm pretty surprised NO ONE believes in Ryan Grant, I have a feeling alot of people will be eating those words come end of next season

1. I just think CJ has a REALLY inflated opinion of himself. Before last year I liked rooting for the guy. Since then, however, I've done a 180 and wouldn't want him no matter what the stats. 2. I already ate crow on Gore and MJD and admitted I was wrong about them.

 

[TheFanatic]

Here is the dealio...I am taking some crap in SSL IV because i don't post in the SP. Well I have a job and don't live in my mom's basement so my time here is limited. But here is my contribution.1. Craig Nall..... I hear he is a FA and unsigned. This is a shout out to my boy, Construx-Boy. So '06 baby.2. Joey Harrington. Never, ever and I mean EVAH, draft Jo Jo. [lifelong Lions fan here] IF it is round 32 adn you still need a QB, draft Testeverde before Jo Jo, he will probably come back for some team somewhere and still do better than Jo Jo.3. TJ Duckett. Last year he stood on the sidelines, carried a clipboard and did squat....wait, WHAT!!! Seattle did WHAT, for HOW long, for HOW MUCH?? Gawd, you just made Matt Millen look good.4. John Beck. The organization is behind me. The coach is behind me. The GM is behind me. By the way Mr. Henne, where would you like me to carry your gear?:RUM ROLL PLEASE::5. Any Lions player. I know it has been said before, but for criss sakes, what we roll out onto the awesome rubber grass at Ford Field is enough to make us shout, THANK YOU SIR MAY I HAVE ANOTHER. It makes us drink in the first quarter, not beer, not shots, but passing the half gallon of Old Granddad around and taking long, painful pulls from it. It reminds us that one year we went 2-14. One of the 2 was against the transvestites from Tampa Bay. THEY HAVE BEEN TO THE PROMISED LAND SINCE!!!! We have not. The team that Millen built leaves us wanting for the days of....please if you have a heart condition or are pregnant, close your browser and don't scroll down........

Thanks for sharing. Sure you don't want to add Boston, Sanders, Carruth, and Favre to this list?There's 10 seconds of my life I will never get back...

 

[FUBAR]

i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen.

And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?

You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.

You seemed smarter than this. The leagues I'm in allow for 6 or more teams to make the playoffs, I suspect it's the same with yours (otherwise, week 14 and maybe 15 would be the regular season). If Portis, who was a top 5 player for the 2007 season, and #6 in the last 6 weeks (I don't have a good way to check how a player scored weeks 1-13, and don't care), ruined your season, you might want to try drafting better after the 1st round. Someone once said you won't win the league in your first round, but you can lose it - and Portis is one of the safest bets you can make after pick 1.05.

cough...Manning...coughPeyton has been an extremely productive and safe pick after 5 for every year...maybe Brady belongs here as well

Did you even read what you bolded?

Uh, yeah...and your point is what? Did I say I disagreed with you about Portis? No, I was just pointing out that if you want a safe pick that will get you a lot of points (and actually more in differential), Manning is way overlooked in these circles even though the draft dominator ranks him in the mid 1st round AND you don't have even close the injury issues you have with a RB.I take Manning every year and I always make the final 4. It is really surprising to me that taking manning isn't more mainstream; but it is good for me. Yes, occasionally you grab Brees later, but if you are stuck piecing QB's together it is much more costly than piecing RB's together. there are plenty of middle of the road RBBC guys that give you less point differential than a QB to Manning, plus, there are always the Grants and Grahams that pop up every year.

Usually when people do the "cough" bit, it's to show the statement as wrong.Nobody was discussing Peyton or picks you should make, we were discussing Portis and who to avoid. If your point is to avoid everyone except Peyton, great.

So why even bring Peyton into the conversation?

 

[ThePittbully]

1. Chad Johnson - not a tenth as good as he thinks he is.

Thats a pretty big exaggeration. He thinks he's better than he really is, and he's definitely a headcase, but he's one hell of a WR and an elite talent when his head is on straight

5. Frank Gore/MJD/Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham - one year wonders

Gore and MJD have both finished top 15 or better two years in a row...so one year wonder already doesnt apply. Gore did it in an absolutely terrible offense this year, and both players missed at least 1 game this past season. MYTH BUSTED

Speaking of Gore, what is with all the people listing him as an avoid at all cost, citing that he'll be on a bad offense. Did you see that offense last year??? How could it possibly be worse than that, and he still posted decent stats. His ADP could possibly be higher than where he finishes, but avoid at all cost is ridiculous.

And I'm pretty surprised NO ONE believes in Ryan Grant, I have a feeling alot of people will be eating those words come end of next season

1. I just think CJ has a REALLY inflated opinion of himself. Before last year I liked rooting for the guy. Since then, however, I've done a 180 and wouldn't want him no matter what the stats. 2. I already ate crow on Gore and MJD and admitted I was wrong about them.

Yea I agree he has an inflated opinion of himself, and I wont be targeting him, but as low as he has been going in drafts I think he does present some value.I must have missed the MJD/Gore post

What about Ryan Grant, what makes you think he's a one year wonder?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

What about Ryan Grant, what makes you think he's a one year wonder?

I dunno. Just a gut feeling.He was an iffy talent in college and was cut once and claimed off the scrap heap by the Packers.And while I do like Aaron Rodgers, he's not Brett Favre.

 

[gianmarco]

What about Ryan Grant, what makes you think he's a one year wonder?

I dunno. Just a gut feeling.He was an iffy talent in college and was cut once and claimed off the scrap heap by the Packers.And while I do like Aaron Rodgers, he's not Brett Favre.

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the Pack gave up a 6th round pick for him and they RARELY give up draft picks for players from what I understand. They wanted him pretty badly....

 

[Banger]

What about Ryan Grant, what makes you think he's a one year wonder?

I dunno. Just a gut feeling.He was an iffy talent in college and was cut once and claimed off the scrap heap by the Packers.And while I do like Aaron Rodgers, he's not Brett Favre.

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the Pack gave up a 6th round pick for him and they RARELY give up draft picks for players from what I understand. They wanted him pretty badly....

you're correct...Grant was a Giant and due to their logjam he needed to be moved.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

What about Ryan Grant, what makes you think he's a one year wonder?

I dunno. Just a gut feeling.He was an iffy talent in college and was cut once and claimed off the scrap heap by the Packers.And while I do like Aaron Rodgers, he's not Brett Favre.

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the Pack gave up a 6th round pick for him and they RARELY give up draft picks for players from what I understand. They wanted him pretty badly....

you're correct...Grant was a Giant and due to their logjam he needed to be moved.

Not that much of a difference. But point taken. I can see where guys would like him. Hard not to get excited about what he did in the 2nd half of the season.I'm just not one of them.

 

[Banger]

What about Ryan Grant, what makes you think he's a one year wonder?

I dunno. Just a gut feeling.He was an iffy talent in college and was cut once and claimed off the scrap heap by the Packers.And while I do like Aaron Rodgers, he's not Brett Favre.

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the Pack gave up a 6th round pick for him and they RARELY give up draft picks for players from what I understand. They wanted him pretty badly....

you're correct...Grant was a Giant and due to their logjam he needed to be moved.

Not that much of a difference. But point taken. I can see where guys would like him. Hard not to get excited about what he did in the 2nd half of the season.I'm just not one of them.

I own him in a league and while I like the situation the Favre hit is big and will end up being bigger than I think a lot of people realize. I think they have a good line (but I think Favre made it look better than it really was), he's got a good opportunity, I think his skillset fits better than his competition, the team didn't pick a back, so there are some things to like. Grant's schedule was cake though going down the stretch and I think he'd be hard pressed to replicate those numbers WITH Favre this year.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Carson Palmer is another guy that goes too early. He is #5 on FBG ranking.I was comparing his stats to a guy you can get 5 rounds later: Rivers.I know I'm cherry picking the weeks here, but I wanted to see how Rivers did after Chambers settled into the offense and learned the playbook.Weeks 11 through 17, Carson outscored Rivers by a little over 4 points (decimal scoring, all yards count). Carson had all his WRs (Henry was back from suspension), but Rivers played without Gates for a few games.I left the "meaningless" week 17 in since the Chargers were playing for play-off position. Rivers played 3 quarters. Palmer played all 4.Palmer had a field day (316 and 3) against the mighty Dolphins that week. Rivers played the totally awesome Raiders.So, take this week out if you choose to. If you do, Rivers then outscored Carson by 6 points during weeks 11 thru 16.Either way, Palmer wasn't all that impressive to be drafted with such high regard (#5 FBG ranking, finished the #9 QB over-all, and #12 over the last 6 weeks). Rivers (#14 FBG ranking, finished the #15 QB, and was #14 over the last 6 weeks) is set about right.Looks like #5 thru #15 are all about equal. Seems better to wait a few rounds if you don't get Brady, Manning, Romo, or Brees.

Palmer played is some really crappy weather between those weeks (12-14 IIRC). He wasn't stellar last year, but the bigger point is that in December, look @ the weather report. You may be better off starting lesser QBs when it's too windy/rainy/cold, in that order.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

1. Brian Westbrook- Westbrook =

This is MILES beyond Westbrook is the first player you're avoiding? Seriously? Since 2004, one season outside the top 10 in standard scoring alone. Even better in PPR.

As for being glass, yeah, he gets knicked up a bit. When he actually starts missing serious time, I'll worry about that. One game each of the past two years. Never missed more than 4 games in a season. 10 games in 6 seasons (and in reality 9 because, IIRC, reid benched all his starters in week 16 a few years ago).

Listing Westbrook as the #1 player to avoid is a monster fishing trip

Here were Portis' weekly scoring totals from last year 0 PPR:

15.8, 13.6, 15.7, 9.1, 8.9, 17.7, 8.1, 25.6, 15.7, 4.5, 10.1, 12.0, 12.2, 18.6, 25.2, 25.1, 8.0

As for MOP's assertion that he will be overvalue, he's ranked 4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 over his career. The year where he ranked 36th he missed have the season.

Total points wise, he's scored 289, 275, 204, 246, 111, and 238 points. If you double his 111 points from 2006 to account for only playing in 8 games, that would have been 222.

So I ask MOP, which RBs out there have produced at a 200+ point level for 6 straight years? I'll save you the trouble . . . Tomlinson and no one else.

Those are nice stats David.How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.

A poster put down Portis' stats in a non PPR league last season and they really are not that impressive. You also said RB had a down year last year...correct and I wonder how Portis '07 would stack up in 2002-2006...I doubt he cracks the top 5, maybe even have a hard time cracking the top 10 with his '07 stats.

The fact is he has never looked like he did in Denver, rarely rips off those long TD we saw early in his career, and he has a lot of mileage on him.

#4 in standard scoring is good enough for me.

 

[mdog1967]

Jackson? Are you serious?I can see not drafting him in the first, but Jackson?For me anyone playing for NE not named Brady or MossAny RB under Shanahan.

In pre season and the beginning of the year the GB offense had more problems than just RB. Not taking anything away from Grant, but part of his success was timing. The o-line came together along with the whole offensive scheme, Grant was geat but there was more to the picture. They knew Jackson was a little raw coming in and he also looked a lot better later in the year, don't be surprised if he is a factor this year.

Two good posts Dmac, but we completely disagree on Jackson. There were some serious flaws in his game in college and he goes down with a finger tip. I dubbed him all last year as "Finger Tip Tackle Jackson". He is not nearly as bad as JJ Arrington but he is still bad. I know folks drafted him too high in Dynasty Leagues and that happens. RB's are different than WR's in that if they don't come out of the gate looking like a true NFL player they probably never will. In a sense Running Backs are born not made. Jackson had some nice statistical games late in the year, but he still looked pedestrian at best. But your other point on Grant is great.My five to avoid in non PPR or draft late.1. Westbrook - Non PPR overvalued2. Evans - Not falling for that again3. LT - too much risk to take him in the top three this year and he wont be available any later.4. Bowe - Great Talent - Sophomore slump coming?5. Harrison - Someone will draft him on name alone way, way too early.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

1.Cedric Benson because he sucks.

2.Reggie Bush because he sucks.

3. Eli Manning because he sucks

4. Vince Young because he sucks.

5. Donte Stallworth because he sucks.