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David Yudkin
Footballguy
:hijack:
I keep seeing people ranking the Arizona WR duo in the Top 5, and I have to ask . . . does Edgerrin James being on the team even REMOTELY enter into your projections/rankings?
Many people have Fitz and Boldin in their Top 5 or 6 WR . . . does the threat of Edge taking away over 100 passing attempts reduce your enthusiam even a little bit? The Cardinals hoisted the ball up 670 times last year . . . how many passing attemts are you allocating for them this year?
:end hijack:
I keep seeing people ranking the Arizona WR duo in the Top 5, and I have to ask . . . does Edgerrin James being on the team even REMOTELY enter into your projections/rankings?
Many people have Fitz and Boldin in their Top 5 or 6 WR . . . does the threat of Edge taking away over 100 passing attempts reduce your enthusiam even a little bit? The Cardinals hoisted the ball up 670 times last year . . . how many passing attemts are you allocating for them this year?
:end hijack:
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I think I projected them at 571.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If that were the case, my decrease of 100 attempts would not be far off.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Yeah I was agreeing with you; just giving my exact number. The Cards led the NFL in plays last year and in passes; it seems unlikely that either will come close to happening again.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
DING! DING! DING! Thank you for in a round about way bringing up what I have been saying all along. Fitz and Boldin by some folks are getting projected at more looks than last year and more production when IMO they should be projected down instead.If the team passes 15% less this year (which is a dropoff of 100 attempts), I would look at both guys seeing close to a 10-15% reduction from last year's numbers.
That would put them more in the Top 10-12 range than the Top 5 range that many people have them slotted in.
Some will argue that one not the other will lose out and that their guy will get more looks, but I don't see it playing out that way.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Holt- I think he'll have his best season as a pro under Linnehan. Linnehan has a past track record of getting alot out of his #1 wr's.
Owens- I think pound for pound still the best wr in the game (I hate him)
R. Moss- Without an injury a no doubt top 5 guy.
R. Williams- Yes, I'm going out on a limb but I've always been a big fan of his talent and now with a qb (somewhat) and a GREAT offensive coordinator he will get the rock.
D. Driver- That limb just got alittle longer with this pick but why is it so crazy to think of Driver as a top 5 guy. He's the only wr on a pass first team and Favre probably has something this year. With not much of a running game to speak of and not much other competition for the ball I don't think it's crazy to think Driver could have about 1300 yards and 10 td's.
Sorry not to put the same as other people but I'll go out on a limb alittle
I promise I don't own Roy or Driver in any league
Owens- I think pound for pound still the best wr in the game (I hate him)
R. Moss- Without an injury a no doubt top 5 guy.
R. Williams- Yes, I'm going out on a limb but I've always been a big fan of his talent and now with a qb (somewhat) and a GREAT offensive coordinator he will get the rock.
D. Driver- That limb just got alittle longer with this pick but why is it so crazy to think of Driver as a top 5 guy. He's the only wr on a pass first team and Favre probably has something this year. With not much of a running game to speak of and not much other competition for the ball I don't think it's crazy to think Driver could have about 1300 yards and 10 td's.
Sorry not to put the same as other people but I'll go out on a limb alittle
I promise I don't own Roy or Driver in any league
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EBF
Footballguy
Holt is the most bulletproof of this year's top WRs. He's my clear pick at #1. The other contenders all have serious question marks.
Steve Smith - He's only had one elite year. With Keyshawn Johnson in town, Drew Carter healthy, and a new addition to the running game, I think we can expect a dip in his numbers. I think he's a classic "regression to the mean" case. I expect something like 1150-1350 with single digit TDs.
Randy Moss - Health is the real issue with Moss. He clearly has the talent to be the top WR in FF, but he needs to get healthy, stay healthy, and click with Brooks. He's getting to the age where he'll need to work hard to maintain his physical skills. His work ethic is underrated, but he still needs to prove that he can bounce back from adversity.
Terrell Owens - When was the last time Owens actually finished a season? He's a dominant player and will probably once again be among the league leaders in yards/game, but there's a lot of volatility given his injury history and his propensity for behavioral trouble. Also, the presence of Glenn and Witten might actually hurt his numbers (or it might help).
Larry Fitzgerald - Boldin had more targets and better numbers down the stretch last year. Fitz is a spectacular player and a great dynasty option, but it might be tough for him to be the #1 FF WR if he's not even the #1 FF WR on his team. Also, Arizona might not throw quite so much next season.
Anquan Boldin - Boldin is one of the most underappreciated players in FF. He was one of only two WRs in the NFL to average over 100 yards/game last season and has shown the ability to dominate. That said, he'll still be losing targets to Larry Fitzgerald, he has a history of knee injuries, and there have been some situation changes in Arizona that might adversely affect his numbers.
Chad Johnson - Johnson is consistently productive, but he has never been the #1 WR in FF and I don't see any reason to expect that to change this season. Carson Palmer is a question mark and TJ Houshmandzadeh is a pesky vulture.
I think when you really look at it, there are genuine reasons for skepticism about all of the above players. Holt, on the other hand, has averaged 1450 receiving yards over the past six years, has only missed two games in that entire period, and still figures to be the clear #1 WR on a high-scoring team. He's the safest bet to give you top 3-5 numbers at the end of the season. That makes him the clear choice as the #1 WR, IMO.
Steve Smith - He's only had one elite year. With Keyshawn Johnson in town, Drew Carter healthy, and a new addition to the running game, I think we can expect a dip in his numbers. I think he's a classic "regression to the mean" case. I expect something like 1150-1350 with single digit TDs.
Randy Moss - Health is the real issue with Moss. He clearly has the talent to be the top WR in FF, but he needs to get healthy, stay healthy, and click with Brooks. He's getting to the age where he'll need to work hard to maintain his physical skills. His work ethic is underrated, but he still needs to prove that he can bounce back from adversity.
Terrell Owens - When was the last time Owens actually finished a season? He's a dominant player and will probably once again be among the league leaders in yards/game, but there's a lot of volatility given his injury history and his propensity for behavioral trouble. Also, the presence of Glenn and Witten might actually hurt his numbers (or it might help).
Larry Fitzgerald - Boldin had more targets and better numbers down the stretch last year. Fitz is a spectacular player and a great dynasty option, but it might be tough for him to be the #1 FF WR if he's not even the #1 FF WR on his team. Also, Arizona might not throw quite so much next season.
Anquan Boldin - Boldin is one of the most underappreciated players in FF. He was one of only two WRs in the NFL to average over 100 yards/game last season and has shown the ability to dominate. That said, he'll still be losing targets to Larry Fitzgerald, he has a history of knee injuries, and there have been some situation changes in Arizona that might adversely affect his numbers.
Chad Johnson - Johnson is consistently productive, but he has never been the #1 WR in FF and I don't see any reason to expect that to change this season. Carson Palmer is a question mark and TJ Houshmandzadeh is a pesky vulture.
I think when you really look at it, there are genuine reasons for skepticism about all of the above players. Holt, on the other hand, has averaged 1450 receiving yards over the past six years, has only missed two games in that entire period, and still figures to be the clear #1 WR on a high-scoring team. He's the safest bet to give you top 3-5 numbers at the end of the season. That makes him the clear choice as the #1 WR, IMO.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
It is refreshing to me.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Rev
Footballguy
You're right on here David. Combine your argument with 3 other points and you have a recipe for decreased production: 1) the Cards will soon be working with a rookie QB
2) they should be far more competitive this season. Thus, they will play more conservatively and throw less.
3. Both Edge AND Pope will eat into the WR targets. With so many talented players on the field, the Cards could resemble the Patriots in how they spread the ball around.
It isn't unreasonable to expect low 80s from both Boldin and Fitz, one of whom may even dip into the 70s! I'm waiting to buy Fitz until week 4, when his owners are lamenting that he's only getting 5 receptions a game instead of 8 or 10.
Aabye
Footballguy
OK, but Boldin missed 3 games last year too. So while Arizona's pass attempts pretty much have to go down (and so Boldin's ppg will probably decrease), is there good reason to think that Boldin's overall numbers don't decrease all that much? It looks like if he stays healthy, he could match last year's reception, yardage, and TD numbers despite the dip in per game production.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
Holt
Smith
Owens
C. Johnson
D. Jackson
Moss
Driver
Boldin/Fitz
Harrison
Looks good to me.
*edit - holy crap, how did I forget about Djax
Smith
Owens
C. Johnson
D. Jackson
Moss
Driver
Boldin/Fitz
Harrison
Looks good to me.
*edit - holy crap, how did I forget about Djax
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
I dig the D-Jax call. Missed out of my top 5 but definetly in my top 10.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
Does Owens @ 2 + 4 = 1?
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BlueDredSo
Footballguy
what is the point of this last post? 
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Just giving you ****.Blackjacks
Footballguy
Why? You take out one year (2003) and he's avg. 80 catches a year, close to 1200 yards and 8 td's a year. Add intot he fact that Walker is gone now and someone is going to be getting those balls. GB was also a very good running team during those years as well (when they had an o-line). I'm not saying I guarantee Driver will be there but I think he has a good chance. Let me guess, you think Holt, Smith, R. Moss, Owens and C. Johnson will be there right?sorry, the message was blended in with the rest of a prior message, the point is Driver is no where near a top 5what is the point of this last post?
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sheerterror
Footballguy
I'm liking the Donald Driver love (I just drafted him as my WR2 in a new dynasty league). Despite the fact that he's 31 this season, does anyone think it's possible he's just going to be hitting his stride with a few years of top 10-15 left in the the tank? Obviously the shelf life for most decent WRs is into the mid 30s so I took him in the 6th banking on the possibility of maybe 3-4 more solid seasons.
I'm not too big on Darrell Jackson, like other people are. Last year Seattle was in the weakest division in the league. This year they will have some contention to deal with. Hasselbecks last season was somewhat of a fluke. Look at his number evey other season. The only reason the passing ame was opened up was b/c of how much Alexander was doing. They lost a significant player on their left side. And if you know anything about their rungame, the left side is the key to them winning. Tell me you disagree with me on this
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I would have to disagree. I don't see Hass as a top 5 qb this year but he is Mr. consistantcy (sp). In the last three years he has been around 3400 yards and 22, 24 and 26 td's. These #'s put him in the top ten every year. I do however agree that losing Hutchinson will be huge for them but I actually think it could help D-JAX's #'s alittle. Guards are more important for running the ball as where you tackles give you the better protection in the passing game. If Alexander isn't as dominating on the ground than D-JAX should get more attempts. If they aren't blowing people out in the second half, like last year, D-JAX might see some more love. I had both last year, Hass and D-JAX and I got so sick and tired of great first halves and nothing in the second I had to get rid of both of them this offseason.
Super King
Footballguy
i have 3 of your top ten on my dynasty squad (Holt, DJax, Driver)Holt
Smith
Owens
C. Johnson
D. Jackson
Moss
Driver
Boldin/Fitz
Harrison
Looks good to me.
*edit - holy crap, how did I forget about Djax
houndirish
Footballguy
1 Owens
2 Smith
3 Holt
4 CJ
5 D Jax
Outside looking in, Chambers, Fitz, Moss, and Plax.
Javon Walker would make my list if he were healthy.
2 Smith
3 Holt
4 CJ
5 D Jax
Outside looking in, Chambers, Fitz, Moss, and Plax.
Javon Walker would make my list if he were healthy.
nygiants56
Footballguy
JayMan
Footballguy
Last three years WR ranking ('03-'04-'05) in parentheses:
Projected '06 rankings:
1. Torry Holt (2-6-6) - simply the steadiest WR of late - no risk whatsoever;
2. Terrell Owens (12-4-32) - besides from Randy, the most upside of any player - first year is always a charm;
3. Steve Smith (15-144-1) - KJohnson will keep defenses honest;
4. Randy Moss (1-19-15) - first healthy season in Oakland - will grab a few TD jump balls;
5. Chad Johnson (3-9-4) - only Palmer's knee keep him from the top3;
6. Marvin Harrison (5-5-9) - another dull top7 season to come;
7. Larry Fitzgerald (x-30-2) - Edge will take some FF points away - the better part of the duo;
8. Reggie Wayne (21-8-21) - top air attack - no double team - no more elite RB;
9. Darrell Jackson (9-14-63) - if the knee holds up and not too many drop ones - he has alot of upside;
10. Anquan Boldin (4-59-8) - see 7. - back to earth, relatively
11. Andre Johnson (23-22-47) - finally getting it together with Kubiak, Carr, Moulds and an improved OLine;
12. Hines Ward (6-28-10) - steady dose of FF points coming through - nothing too fancy here;
13. Chris Chambers (10-25-7) - been doing it with Fielder and Frerotte - should be ok with the Walmart guy;
14. Donald Driver (51-10-13) - defenses will key on him - but that won't stop Favre from tossing it up - we know that;
15. Santana Moss (8-33-3) - rollercoaster time - downward we go;
16. Roy Williams (x-29-30) - moving up 10 spots since buying a Treadmill;
17. Plaxico Burress (28-42-11) - too inconsistent to be moving up;
18. Deion Branch (34-58-22) - better Pats WR - enough said;
19. Derrick Mason (7-18-24) - Hi Steve, I'm Derrick - let me grab 8 balls a game once more;
20. TJ. Houshmandzadeh (x-31-14) - meet Mr. Wayne II - less grabs though.
My two cents...
Projected '06 rankings:
1. Torry Holt (2-6-6) - simply the steadiest WR of late - no risk whatsoever;
2. Terrell Owens (12-4-32) - besides from Randy, the most upside of any player - first year is always a charm;
3. Steve Smith (15-144-1) - KJohnson will keep defenses honest;
4. Randy Moss (1-19-15) - first healthy season in Oakland - will grab a few TD jump balls;
5. Chad Johnson (3-9-4) - only Palmer's knee keep him from the top3;
6. Marvin Harrison (5-5-9) - another dull top7 season to come;
7. Larry Fitzgerald (x-30-2) - Edge will take some FF points away - the better part of the duo;
8. Reggie Wayne (21-8-21) - top air attack - no double team - no more elite RB;
9. Darrell Jackson (9-14-63) - if the knee holds up and not too many drop ones - he has alot of upside;
10. Anquan Boldin (4-59-8) - see 7. - back to earth, relatively
11. Andre Johnson (23-22-47) - finally getting it together with Kubiak, Carr, Moulds and an improved OLine;
12. Hines Ward (6-28-10) - steady dose of FF points coming through - nothing too fancy here;
13. Chris Chambers (10-25-7) - been doing it with Fielder and Frerotte - should be ok with the Walmart guy;
14. Donald Driver (51-10-13) - defenses will key on him - but that won't stop Favre from tossing it up - we know that;
15. Santana Moss (8-33-3) - rollercoaster time - downward we go;
16. Roy Williams (x-29-30) - moving up 10 spots since buying a Treadmill;
17. Plaxico Burress (28-42-11) - too inconsistent to be moving up;
18. Deion Branch (34-58-22) - better Pats WR - enough said;
19. Derrick Mason (7-18-24) - Hi Steve, I'm Derrick - let me grab 8 balls a game once more;
20. TJ. Houshmandzadeh (x-31-14) - meet Mr. Wayne II - less grabs though.
My two cents...
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If nothing else, JayMan's post illustrates how all over the map the WR rankings have been in recent years.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
History is on your side that says the passing game numbers should diminish with the addition of an Edge caliber back.That's one of the reasons I'm not buying into the Kurt Warner with 4,000 yards and 30 TDs club.
However even with 530ish passing attempts, that should be enough yards and TDs to produce a top8ish and top15ish WR... which is about where I have Boldin and Fitz ranked this year.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
It's strange that you see that.When I look at Hass, I see a guy who's yards/TD per game put him at 3800/26 in a 16 game season.
He was clearly on pace for that in 2004, but missed two games.
He was clearly on pace for that in 2005, but sat week 17.
When I look at Matt Hasselbeck, I see a guy who has averaged 237 passing yards and 1.6 passing TD per game (3800/26) the last three years. And he's only missed two games due to injury the last three years.
He's just about Marc Bulger with less injuries and less INTs.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I think you took my post in the wrong way. I think Hass is a very good qb option. I think he is a guy that will get you solid points week in and out. The thing I don't care is his oppurtunity to score in all four quarters of the game. That 3800/26 should be attainable IF and only IF they are in some closer games next year, which could be possible. However until I see see him airing it out in the second half I will keep him at 7 thru 9 in my rankings.
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
Why no love for D-JAX ?!!! He could have been top 5 last year pending injury and he has a great relationship with a solid QB. I dare someone to say Nate Burleson either 
EBF
Footballguy
His career highs are 1199 yards and 9 TDs. It's hard to lump him into the same category as guys like Holt, Moss, Boldin, Smith, Johnson, and Owens.Why no love for D-JAX ?!!! He could have been top 5 last year pending injury and he has a great relationship with a solid QB. I dare someone to say Nate Burleson either
DocNiner52
Footballguy
My thoughts exactly. Many may not agree with Harrison being top 5 but he'll finish in the top 5,mark my words.6. Larry Fitzgerald
7.Randy Moss
8.Chris Chambers
9. Darrel Jackson
10. Anquan Boldin
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If never having been in the Top 5 precludes you from being able to, no one would ever break into the Top 5. The past few years have had several new entries into the Gold Circle of WRs (whether they stayed there or not): Boldin, Fitzgerald, Muhammad, Smith, the little Moss, Galloway, etc. There will be other guys int he mix here, and figuring out who they are will get you way ahead of the game fantasy wise.I've mentioned several times in other threads that the top WR this year all have question marks involving new teammates, new teams, new coaches, injuries to QB, etc. that make all of them risky picks. Some may have negative impacts, so leabing the status quo as the vanguard may not be the best thing to do (and recent WR rankings reflect this).His career highs are 1199 yards and 9 TDs. It's hard to lump him into the same category as guys like Holt, Moss, Boldin, Smith, Johnson, and Owens.Why no love for D-JAX ?!!! He could have been top 5 last year pending injury and he has a great relationship with a solid QB. I dare someone to say Nate Burleson either
PackerNation
Footballguy
Here's the story on Donald Driver:
1) He's been a pretty good receiver over the past couple of years despite being the #2 guy behind Walker in 2004 and being hurt quite a bit of the time in 2003.
2) He really doesn't have anything opposite him this year. I'd bet that Driver is the only WR on that team to catch over 40 balls this year.
3) Brett Favre likes to throw it to him, covered or not. He's going to get the hog's share of attempts.
4) The Packer running game is very suspect this year and they may be in quite a few "must pass" situations.
For fantasy purposes, I wouldn't put Driver in the top 5 but I think he's at least a 50/50 bet to be top 10 guy this year.
1) He's been a pretty good receiver over the past couple of years despite being the #2 guy behind Walker in 2004 and being hurt quite a bit of the time in 2003.
2) He really doesn't have anything opposite him this year. I'd bet that Driver is the only WR on that team to catch over 40 balls this year.
3) Brett Favre likes to throw it to him, covered or not. He's going to get the hog's share of attempts.
4) The Packer running game is very suspect this year and they may be in quite a few "must pass" situations.
For fantasy purposes, I wouldn't put Driver in the top 5 but I think he's at least a 50/50 bet to be top 10 guy this year.
