Top Ten Fantasy Runningbacks For 2010 (1 Viewer)

[Beau Tocks]

1. Chris Johnson

2. Ray Rice

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Stephen Jackson

5. Adrian Peterson

6. Jamal Charles

7. Frank Gore

8. Matt Forte

9. Knowshon Moreno

10. Ryan Grant

Honorable mentions:

Justin Forsett

Rashard Mendenhall

Steve Slaton

DeAngelo Williams

Just an early year wish list

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Why so high on S-Jax?

 

[Joe T]

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB

2 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

3 Rice, Ray BAL RB

4 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

5 Gore, Frank SFO RB

6 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

7 Jackson, Steven STL RB

8 Turner, Michael ATL RB

9 Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

10 Smith, Kevin DET RB

 

[LHUCKS]

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB2 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB3 Rice, Ray BAL RB4 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB5 Gore, Frank SFO RB6 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB7 Jackson, Steven STL RB8 Turner, Michael ATL RB10 Smith, Kevin DET RB

This will be my top 10 although I may swap Moreno for Smith.

 

[Beau Tocks]

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB2 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB3 Rice, Ray BAL RB4 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB5 Gore, Frank SFO RB6 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB7 Jackson, Steven STL RB8 Turner, Michael ATL RB10 Smith, Kevin DET RB

This will be my top 10 although I may swap Moreno for Smith.

M.Turner- 22 recpts. (not as desirable in ppr format)IMOK. Smith- health for 2010 cloudy at the moment.

 

[Faust]

Kevin Smith in the top 10 is too much of a risk with the injury he sustained, and it feels like it is a bit early to place Shonn Greene in the top 10 in PPR formats

 

[Domination]

I find it surprising that everyone has CJ3 and ADP that different. CJ3 only caught 7 more passes.

 

[FUBAR]

1. Chris Johnson

2. Ray Rice

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Adrian Peterson

5. Stephen Jackson

6. Frank Gore

7. Chris Wells

8. Knowshon Moreno

9. Jamal Charles

10. Michael Turner

Might be early to put Wells up at 7 but I like the chances. I'd like to put DWill or JStew in the top 10 but just can't with both there.

 

[ATC1]

I find it surprising that everyone has CJ3 and ADP that different. CJ3 only caught 7 more passes.

It really depends on Favre and if they resign C. Taylor. the Vikings have gotten away from pounding the ball with the success they have through the passing game.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

Matt Forte doesn't belong on that list, Also, Slaton and Forsett doesn't belong on the honerable mention list

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Matt Forte doesn't belong on that list,

In a PPR, I disagree. Bounceback in 2010.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

Matt Forte doesn't belong on that list, Also, Slaton and Forsett doesn't belong on the honerable mention list

In a ppr, yes he does!

 

[Moniker]

Kind of surprised at how many have CJ3 at #1

1. Maurice Jones-Drew

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Chris Johnson

4. Ray Rice

5. Steven Jackson

6. Frank Gore

7. Jamal Charles

8. Ryan Grant

9. Knowshon Moreno

10. Michael Turner

Was torn between Moreno, Turner, Kevin Smith, DeAngelo Williams and Fred Jackson (assuming he keeps the job) for the 9-10 slots, but the situations of both Turner and Moreno put them ahead of the others, in my opinion.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

1. CJ

2. ADP

3. Rice

4. MJD

5. SJax

6. Turner

7. Gore

8. Forte

9. Charles

10. DLo

 

[FUBAR]

Kind of surprised at how many have CJ3 at #11. Maurice Jones-Drew2. Adrian Peterson3. Chris Johnson4. Ray Rice

it's not that hard to believe that we'd put the most talented player on a team that likes and needs to run on top. He won't get 2,000 yards again and probably won't lead the league in rushing but he'll be among the leaders barring injury, and I don't predict injuries. IMO the top 4 could go in any order.

 

[Spike]

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB2 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB3 Rice, Ray BAL RB4 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB5 Gore, Frank SFO RB6 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB7 Jackson, Steven STL RB8 Turner, Michael ATL RB9 Greene, Shonn NYJ RB10 Smith, Kevin DET RB

Kevin Smith? Doesn't he now have zero attached ligaments in one of his knees?

 

[LOCO]

1. MJD

2. Rice

3. Gore

4. Chris Johnson

5. Peterson

6. Pierre Thomas

7. Sjax

8. Moreno

9. Felix Jones

10. Charles

 

[ATC1]

right now my value plays are

Forte

F. Jones

M. Bush

R. Bush

I'll go with WR/QB the first two rounds more than likely.

 

[Blackjacks]

1. MJD2. Rice3. Gore4. Chris Johnson5. Peterson6. Pierre Thomas7. Sjax8. Moreno9. Felix Jones10. Charles

Finally, someone put P. Thomas in here.If Bush gets released I got to think Thomas would be in the discussion for top 10 in ppr., right?

 

[H.K.]

Slaton ...doesn't belong on the honerable mention list

He does if PPR = Points Per being Replaced

 

[awesomeness]

1. Chris Johnson

2. Maurice Jones-Drew

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Frank Gore

6. Jamaal Charles

7. Stephen Jackson

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Cedric Benson

10. Ryan Mathews

 

[karmarooster]

2009:

CJ
Rice
MJD
Peterson
Gore
R.Williams
Addai
Sjax
TJones
GrantFalling out: Ricky, Addai, Jones, Grant

New Additions: JCharles, Felix Jones, LeSean McCoy, Turner

2010:

MJD
CJ
Peterson
Rice
Sjax
Gore
Charles
Turner
Felix
McCoyFelix and McCoy are the not-so-surprising surprise picks. There have to be a few of those. 1000+ yards rushing and 40+ receptions.

Turner doesn't get receptions, but if he has 1200+ yards and 12+ TDs it won't matter.

Honorable mentions: Stewart/DWill, Forte

 

[Joe T]

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB2 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB3 Rice, Ray BAL RB4 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB5 Gore, Frank SFO RB6 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB7 Jackson, Steven STL RB8 Turner, Michael ATL RB9 Greene, Shonn NYJ RB10 Smith, Kevin DET RB

Kevin Smith? Doesn't he now have zero attached ligaments in one of his knees?

I think its too late to edit. I'll let it stand, but if a new thread starts tomorrow I'll adjust.

 

[comfortably numb]

:sendingoutADPoffers:

 

[Bayhawks]

Kind of surprised at how many have CJ3 at #11. Maurice Jones-Drew2. Adrian Peterson3. Chris Johnson4. Ray Rice

it's not that hard to believe that we'd put the most talented player on a team that likes and needs to run on top. He won't get 2,000 yards again and probably won't lead the league in rushing but he'll be among the leaders barring injury, and I don't predict injuries. IMO the top 4 could go in any order.

It's not that hard to believe, but it is a classic case of "chasing last year's numbers." Johnson tallied 397 points in FBG scoring (PPG). That was obviously first amongst RBS, by a good margin (63 points).However, I think it's safe to say this will be Johnson's career year. He rushed for over 2000 yards, and set the yards from scrimmage mark. To expect him to put up numbers like that again is unrealistic.He had 358 carries (almost 23 carries/game) for 2006 rushing yards (5.6 YPC), 14 rush TDs, 50 receptions for 503 yards, and 2 receiving TDs.Let's assume he drops down to 320 carries (still a lot, @ 20/game) with a 5.1 YPC. That's 1632 yards. Assuming his same TD to carry ratio, he should get 12 rushing TDs. He scored 1 rush TD for every 26 carries in 09 (1 for every 28 in 08, so that's been pretty consistent). He had 50 catches in 09 for a 10.0 yards/reception average. That's pretty high. If we drop that down to 8.0 YPR, and keep the 50 catches, that is 400 yards receiving. Let's give him another 2 receiving TDs.So, with these assumptions, he gets 1632 rush yards, 12 TDs, 50 receptions, 400 rec yards, 2 TDs.That's 327 FF points. That would have put him in the exact same area as Peterson, Rice, MJD, and Gore (on a PPG basis). And those are still GREAT numbers. Maybe his average drops to 4.5 YPC. Maybe he only gets 17 carries/game instead of 20, etc. People are putting him #1, based on 1 GREAT year.I don't see him as a lock for the #1 spot next year, and depending on what happens in Baltimore, Minny, and Jax this off-season, I think putting ADP, Rice, or MJD ahead of him would be the right call.

 

[Black]

Kevin Smith in the top 10 is too much of a risk with the injury he sustained, and it feels like it is a bit early to place Shonn Greene in the top 10 in PPR formats

I'd be surprised to see Kevin Smith back...period. Shonn will be top 10 in non-PPR, but alot more like M. Turner in PPR. He won't be used to catch passes.

 

[Moniker]

Kevin Smith in the top 10 is too much of a risk with the injury he sustained, and it feels like it is a bit early to place Shonn Greene in the top 10 in PPR formats

I'd be surprised to see Kevin Smith back...period. Shonn will be top 10 in non-PPR, but alot more like M. Turner in PPR. He won't be used to catch passes.

I'd actually be surprised to not see Kevin Smith back. He had successful surgery back in December and, although he won't be ready for OTAs, he should be ready for training camp - although he still has a minor shoulder surgery soon.

 

[Kai's Hero]

I find it surprising that everyone has CJ3 and ADP that different. CJ3 only caught 7 more passes.

The difference is that he goes the distance with em!

 

[finito]

Kevin Smith in the top 10 is too much of a risk with the injury he sustained, and it feels like it is a bit early to place Shonn Greene in the top 10 in PPR formats

I'd be surprised to see Kevin Smith back...period. Shonn will be top 10 in non-PPR, but alot more like M. Turner in PPR. He won't be used to catch passes.

I'd actually be surprised to not see Kevin Smith back. He had successful surgery back in December and, although he won't be ready for OTAs, he should be ready for training camp - although he still has a minor shoulder surgery soon.

Problem I have is that Smith wasn't that great to begin with. He works hard and isn't bad, but he's not a transcendent talent by any stretch. So now the Lions *have* to make other plans in case he isn't healthy to start the season, which means they'll either draft a RB or sign a FA. Since Smith may or may not be at full strength he could lose his job outright or be forced into a RBBC. The Lions can't count on him and they will bring someone in. I'm wary of guys coming off a major injury when I don't think are that good.

 

[Chaka]

No top 10 votes for Mendenhall but five for Moreno?

 

[Cookiemonster]

I figured nobody would mention Benson, but I think he's an absolute lock to be in the 8-13 range, and like Rudi before him will usually be drafted around 15+.

PPR

1 Peterson

2 Rice

3 Drew

4 CJ4.24

5 SJax

6 Gore

7 Turner

8 Mendenhall

9 Benson

10 Harrison

fringe

Ronnie

Reggie (if he leaves N.O.)

Dwyer (SD? Sea?)

Grant

Charles

DWill

JStew

 

[finito]

I figured nobody would mention Benson, but I think he's an absolute lock to be in the 8-13 range, and like Rudi before him will usually be drafted around 15+.PPR1 Peterson2 Rice3 Drew4 CJ4.245 SJax6 Gore7 Turner8 Mendenhall9 Benson10 HarrisonfringeRonnieReggie (if he leaves N.O.)Dwyer (SD? Sea?)GrantCharlesDWillJStew

Benson never gets any respect but he is in a great spot and should see a lot of touches. I agree he could easily crack the top 10.Like the Harrison pick, it will be interesting to see how he fares.

 

[Joe T]

I figured nobody would mention Benson, but I think he's an absolute lock to be in the 8-13 range, and like Rudi before him will usually be drafted around 15+.PPR1 Peterson2 Rice3 Drew4 CJ4.245 SJax6 Gore7 Turner8 Mendenhall9 Benson10 HarrisonfringeRonnieReggie (if he leaves N.O.)Dwyer (SD? Sea?)GrantCharlesDWillJStew

Good point on Benson. I think I will slide him in to my 10 spot.I also like your Mendenhall pick.

 

[grapeape]

No one thinks Shanny will have a good RB next year?

 

[awesomeness]

I figured nobody would mention Benson, but I think he's an absolute lock to be in the 8-13 range, and like Rudi before him will usually be drafted around 15+.PPR1 Peterson2 Rice3 Drew4 CJ4.245 SJax6 Gore7 Turner8 Mendenhall9 Benson10 HarrisonfringeRonnieReggie (if he leaves N.O.)Dwyer (SD? Sea?)GrantCharlesDWillJStew

I mentioned him at the top of the range you mentioned, #8.

 

[Splicer]

No top 10 votes for Mendenhall but five for Moreno?

That's exactly what I was thinking...

 

[mikel2014]

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Chris Johnson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Ray Rice

5. Steven Jackson

6. Frank Gore

7. Jamaal Charles

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Felix Jones

If Bush is gone, Pierre Thomas gets a bump into the top 10. If DeAngelo Williams is traded, Jonathan Stewart will be around 7. Michael Turner is my 11th, but in a non-PPR league he'd be easily in the top 10.

 

[djmich]

1. MJD2. Rice3. Gore4. Chris Johnson5. Peterson6. Pierre Thomas7. Sjax8. Moreno9. Felix Jones10. Charles

Finally, someone put P. Thomas in here.If Bush gets released I got to think Thomas would be in the discussion for top 10 in ppr., right?

Will they release Bell and Hamilton too, and not get anyone to replace Bush?

 

[wiersface]

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Ray Rice

5. Frank Gore

6. Jamaal Charles

7. Stephen Jackson

8. Rashard Mendenhall

9. Deangelo Williams

10. Michael Turner

We are talking ppr so forte could slip in at the 8-10 hole, but i'm hating on the bears right now and decided to deny him. A guy like Moreno or Jstew mite slip in as well, yea and prolly benson too, but i hate him so #### it

 

[FUBAR]

It's not that hard to believe, but it is a classic case of "chasing last year's numbers."

Johnson tallied 397 points in FBG scoring (PPG). That was obviously first amongst RBS, by a good margin (63 points).

However, I think it's safe to say this will be Johnson's career year. He rushed for over 2000 yards, and set the yards from scrimmage mark. To expect him to put up numbers like that again is unrealistic.

To expect anyone to put up those numbers is unrealistic, but he did it.

He had 358 carries (almost 23 carries/game) for 2006 rushing yards (5.6 YPC), 14 rush TDs, 50 receptions for 503 yards, and 2 receiving TDs.

Let's assume he drops down to 320 carries (still a lot, @ 20/game) with a 5.1 YPC. That's 1632 yards. Assuming his same TD to carry ratio, he should get 12 rushing TDs. He scored 1 rush TD for every 26 carries in 09 (1 for every 28 in 08, so that's been pretty consistent). He had 50 catches in 09 for a 10.0 yards/reception average. That's pretty high. If we drop that down to 8.0 YPR, and keep the 50 catches, that is 400 yards receiving. Let's give him another 2 receiving TDs.

So, with these assumptions, he gets 1632 rush yards, 12 TDs, 50 receptions, 400 rec yards, 2 TDs.

That's 327 FF points. That would have put him in the exact same area as Peterson, Rice, MJD, and Gore (on a PPG basis). And those are still GREAT numbers. Maybe his average drops to 4.5 YPC. Maybe he only gets 17 carries/game instead of 20, etc. People are putting him #1, based on 1 GREAT year.

I don't see him as a lock for the #1 spot next year, and depending on what happens in Baltimore, Minny, and Jax this off-season, I think putting ADP, Rice, or MJD ahead of him would be the right call.

Nobody is a lock to be #1, but there's little reason to believe any of those on an individual basis would be better than CJ next year.

 

[Bayhawks]

It's not that hard to believe, but it is a classic case of "chasing last year's numbers."

Johnson tallied 397 points in FBG scoring (PPG). That was obviously first amongst RBS, by a good margin (63 points).

However, I think it's safe to say this will be Johnson's career year. He rushed for over 2000 yards, and set the yards from scrimmage mark. To expect him to put up numbers like that again is unrealistic.

To expect anyone to put up those numbers is unrealistic, but he did it.

He had 358 carries (almost 23 carries/game) for 2006 rushing yards (5.6 YPC), 14 rush TDs, 50 receptions for 503 yards, and 2 receiving TDs.

Let's assume he drops down to 320 carries (still a lot, @ 20/game) with a 5.1 YPC. That's 1632 yards. Assuming his same TD to carry ratio, he should get 12 rushing TDs. He scored 1 rush TD for every 26 carries in 09 (1 for every 28 in 08, so that's been pretty consistent). He had 50 catches in 09 for a 10.0 yards/reception average. That's pretty high. If we drop that down to 8.0 YPR, and keep the 50 catches, that is 400 yards receiving. Let's give him another 2 receiving TDs.

So, with these assumptions, he gets 1632 rush yards, 12 TDs, 50 receptions, 400 rec yards, 2 TDs.

That's 327 FF points. That would have put him in the exact same area as Peterson, Rice, MJD, and Gore (on a PPG basis). And those are still GREAT numbers. Maybe his average drops to 4.5 YPC. Maybe he only gets 17 carries/game instead of 20, etc. People are putting him #1, based on 1 GREAT year.

I don't see him as a lock for the #1 spot next year, and depending on what happens in Baltimore, Minny, and Jax this off-season, I think putting ADP, Rice, or MJD ahead of him would be the right call.

Nobody is a lock to be #1, but there's little reason to believe any of those on an individual basis would be better than CJ next year.

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. I threw out some GREAT projections for Chris Johnson next year. 1600 rush yards, 400 receiving yards, 14 TDs are GREAT numbers. And those numbers would still represent a huge drop from his numbers this year. And those numbers still wouldn't have made him the #1 RB this year.So, there are actually some very good reasons to believe that someone else will be better than CJ next year.

1) He just had his career year, and it's not going to happen again.

2) He's not going to get 360 carries again.

3) Tennessee isn't going to have 5 games left in the regular season, no shot at the playoffs, and decide "let's give Johnson 30 carries a game over the last 5 games so he can break 2000 yards."

4) Fisher has already said that he is going to cut down on CJ's carries next year, and that he wants to have another RB to rotate with Johnson

That's 4 reasons right there. Johnson will still be a great RB (NFL and FF), but he's not the best choice to finish as the #1 FF RB. Peterson is still probably the best choice. If Favre retires (and stays retired), we know Peterson can put up #s without Favre, and if Favre comes back, we saw this year, he can put up numbers with him, too.

 

[travdogg]

1. MJD2. Rice3. Gore4. Chris Johnson5. Peterson6. Pierre Thomas7. Sjax8. Moreno9. Felix Jones10. Charles

Finally, someone put P. Thomas in here.If Bush gets released I got to think Thomas would be in the discussion for top 10 in ppr., right?

Will they release Bell and Hamilton too, and not get anyone to replace Bush?

Thomas finished around 15th this year and he missed 3 games. He might have been top-10 if he played those games, and that was with Bush around. I'm of the belief that this season is pretty close to Thomas' floor.6th may be a little high(I wouldn't even consider him over Jackson) but he's definitely worthy of being in the top-10 conversation.

 

[travdogg]

So, there are actually some very good reasons to believe that someone else will be better than CJ next year.

1) He just had his career year, and it's not going to happen again.

That's kind of a risky statement. I don't really feel that's a fact at all. I agree with you that getting 360 carries is unlikely, but that doesn't mean he's had his career year. I don't think its unrealistic he could put up another 20-25 catches and not lose many total yards from what he did this year getting about 300 carries, plus its possible and perhaps likely that he'll put up even more TD's in the coming years. A 2,200 total yard(let's say 1,600 rushing and 600 receiving) and 20 TD season would be a better fantasy season than what he had this year.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

So, there are actually some very good reasons to believe that someone else will be better than CJ next year.

1) He just had his career year, and it's not going to happen again.

That's kind of a risky statement. I don't really feel that's a fact at all. I agree with you that getting 360 carries is unlikely, but that doesn't mean he's had his career year. I don't think its unrealistic he could put up another 20-25 catches and not lose many total yards from what he did this year getting about 300 carries, plus its possible and perhaps likely that he'll put up even more TD's in the coming years. A 2,200 total yard(let's say 1,600 rushing and 600 receiving) and 20 TD season would be a better fantasy season than what he had this year.

The thing about Johnson is that, even if he's not the #1 RB at the end of the year, barring injury he'll be good enough that you'll go "He was a good choice at that spot." You can't predict who will definitely be #1, but he's going to get carries, he's going to get carries in the red zone, he's going to catch the ball, he's young and he plays for a pretty good team. Anyone can get hurt but if you think he'll play 16 games I'd take him and be happy with top three numbers. He's got plenty of ways to get them. The guy I think could be a sleeper is Charles, and by sleeper I mean a guy who could finish #1 that people are thinking is maybe top 10 and others expect a drop off. That team looks like they're putting some special pieces together. They have the championship Patriots coordinators and they don't play in a tough division. They have just enough talent to stay in games and Charles can run and catch the ball. He's a guy who could slip to the end of the 2nd if people stock up on QBs and WRs and give the Johnson owner an almost unfair RB backfield in a PPR league.

 

[MrSoup]

1. Chris Johnson2. Adrian Peterson3. Maurice Jones-Drew4. Ray Rice5. Frank Gore6. Jamaal Charles7. Stephen Jackson8. Rashard Mendenhall9. Deangelo Williams10. Michael TurnerWe are talking ppr so forte could slip in at the 8-10 hole, but i'm hating on the bears right now and decided to deny him. A guy like Moreno or Jstew mite slip in as well, yea and prolly benson too, but i hate him so #### it

Jerk off Charles a little more why don't cha!!?!?!

 

[wiersface]

1. Chris Johnson2. Adrian Peterson3. Maurice Jones-Drew4. Ray Rice5. Frank Gore6. Jamaal Charles7. Stephen Jackson8. Rashard Mendenhall9. Deangelo Williams10. Michael TurnerWe are talking ppr so forte could slip in at the 8-10 hole, but i'm hating on the bears right now and decided to deny him. A guy like Moreno or Jstew mite slip in as well, yea and prolly benson too, but i hate him so #### it

Jerk off Charles a little more why don't cha!!?!?!

You just wait when I bury ya with 100 points outta my backs son. BOOMSHOCKADAY! Too far gone for you. I thought I hooked Mendenhall up more than Charles, but ur just following me around hating

 

[Bayhawks]

So, there are actually some very good reasons to believe that someone else will be better than CJ next year.

1) He just had his career year, and it's not going to happen again.

That's kind of a risky statement. I don't really feel that's a fact at all. I agree with you that getting 360 carries is unlikely, but that doesn't mean he's had his career year. I don't think its unrealistic he could put up another 20-25 catches and not lose many total yards from what he did this year getting about 300 carries, plus its possible and perhaps likely that he'll put up even more TD's in the coming years. A 2,200 total yard(let's say 1,600 rushing and 600 receiving) and 20 TD season would be a better fantasy season than what he had this year.

It's not a risky statement at all. It's much more of a risky statement to say that this wasn't Johnson's career year, and he will improve on it (either in NFL terms, or FF terms).1) It is much more likely that Johnson will never break his yards from scrimmage record again than that he will break that record again.

2) It is much more likely that Johnson will never rush for 2000 yards again than that he will break 2000 rushing again. (No NFL RB has ever rushed for more than 2000 yards more than once)

3) It is possible that Johnson will not rush for even 1600 yards in a season again. (23 NFL RBs have managed to rush for over 1600 yards in 1 season, only 10 of them were able to duplicate that feat; to be fair, though, 4 of the other 5 RBs who rushed for over 2000, rushed for 1600 at least one other time in their career).

4) It is very unlikely to assume that Johnson will break 20 TDs. It's a rare feat (RBs have accrued 20+ TDs only 22 times in the NFL). Johnson isn't the typical RB who you would expect to score 20 TDs. Most RBs who hit that mark not only have homerun potential, but also get a lot of short yardage TDs. Johnson scored 7 TDs from over 50 yards in 2009, but he only scored 5 TDs from inside of 5 yards. It's more likely for the long TD #s to come down than for the short TD #s to go up. That makes getting 20 TDs very difficult.

I'm not saying Johnson isn't a top 5 (or even top 3) FF RB, but Peterson should be the #1 ranked back for next year. He easily has the potential to get over 1500 rush yards, plus several hundred more through the air (as we saw in 09, he can be more of an asset in the passing game). He gets his team's short yardage carries, and he has homerun ability, as well (7 TDs of over 50 yards in his 3 year career), he doesn't really have a back to take carries away (Taylor took some ADP's rookie year, but the last 2 years, Peterson has been the lead RB).

If you disagree, explain why Peterson shouldn't be the top back, even in a PPR (where Johnson had only 7 more catches in 09).

 

[Bandite]

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB2 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB3 Rice, Ray BAL RB4 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB5 Gore, Frank SFO RB6 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB7 Jackson, Steven STL RB8 Turner, Michael ATL RB9 Greene, Shonn NYJ RB10 Smith, Kevin DET RB

Smith will not be top 10 after his injury he suffered so late in the season. Not going to be surprised if he starts on the PUP. Shonn Green #9? Yikes. 1st off, Im not going to be surprised if TJ comes back, he had a great season. And lets not forget Leon Washington. He was their pass catching back before he was injured. I would put Moreno in there above Green, Turner and Smith at # 8. What does everyone think about McFadden? Kind of a make or Break yr for him huh

 

[Bandite]

1. MJD

2. CJ3

3. Rice

4. Charles

5. ADP

6. S-jaxk

7. D-Will

8. Gore

9. Moreno

10. Benson

 

[ericttspikes]

So, there are actually some very good reasons to believe that someone else will be better than CJ next year.

1) He just had his career year, and it's not going to happen again.

That's kind of a risky statement. I don't really feel that's a fact at all. I agree with you that getting 360 carries is unlikely, but that doesn't mean he's had his career year. I don't think its unrealistic he could put up another 20-25 catches and not lose many total yards from what he did this year getting about 300 carries, plus its possible and perhaps likely that he'll put up even more TD's in the coming years. A 2,200 total yard(let's say 1,600 rushing and 600 receiving) and 20 TD season would be a better fantasy season than what he had this year.

It's not a risky statement at all. It's much more of a risky statement to say that this wasn't Johnson's career year, and he will improve on it (either in NFL terms, or FF terms).1) It is much more likely that Johnson will never break his yards from scrimmage record again than that he will break that record again.

2) It is much more likely that Johnson will never rush for 2000 yards again than that he will break 2000 rushing again. (No NFL RB has ever rushed for more than 2000 yards more than once)

3) It is possible that Johnson will not rush for even 1600 yards in a season again. (23 NFL RBs have managed to rush for over 1600 yards in 1 season, only 10 of them were able to duplicate that feat; to be fair, though, 4 of the other 5 RBs who rushed for over 2000, rushed for 1600 at least one other time in their career).

4) It is very unlikely to assume that Johnson will break 20 TDs. It's a rare feat (RBs have accrued 20+ TDs only 22 times in the NFL). Johnson isn't the typical RB who you would expect to score 20 TDs. Most RBs who hit that mark not only have homerun potential, but also get a lot of short yardage TDs. Johnson scored 7 TDs from over 50 yards in 2009, but he only scored 5 TDs from inside of 5 yards. It's more likely for the long TD #s to come down than for the short TD #s to go up. That makes getting 20 TDs very difficult.

I'm not saying Johnson isn't a top 5 (or even top 3) FF RB, but Peterson should be the #1 ranked back for next year. He easily has the potential to get over 1500 rush yards, plus several hundred more through the air (as we saw in 09, he can be more of an asset in the passing game). He gets his team's short yardage carries, and he has homerun ability, as well (7 TDs of over 50 yards in his 3 year career), he doesn't really have a back to take carries away (Taylor took some ADP's rookie year, but the last 2 years, Peterson has been the lead RB).

If you disagree, explain why Peterson shouldn't be the top back, even in a PPR (where Johnson had only 7 more catches in 09).

I'm not on board with saying Johnson just had his career season. The guy has some sick skills and speed like no other back in the league. Probably as close as I've seen to Barry since he retired. Barry put up his career year 9 years in and after some fairly sick statistical years before that. I'd be happy to take Johnson on talent alone, and that should put him at #1. I tend to pick players on talent and skill over things like the odds of repeating year over year or guessing how many carries he might get. Skill trumps all that IMO.