top WR consensus? (1 Viewer)

[Verbal Kint]

In looking at the top 10 WRs, it seems that there are questions pertaining to each of them.

Fitz/Boldin (more balanced offense),

Steve Smith (% of total targets regress toward the mean/impact of Keyshawn),

Holt (no Martz)

Moss (injury, motivation, new QB) &

Harrison (age).

Owens (character)

CJ (Palmer rehab)

While I think any of these guys could be top 3, I wouldn't be suprised if any one of them dropped out of the top 10. Personally, I see Owens & Moss back on top, as I see their situation are dramatically improved fro last year, but I think either Boldin or Fitz will be 8-9, and the other will be ~ #15.

One of the maxims of the FBG is that you can't win with your top pick, but you can lose with it. So if you are faced with picking on of these who are you avoiding? Who's downside is the greatest?

Also in the drafts/mocks you are seeing, has there been wide deviation in the draft order, or has it conformed closely to the ADPs (from FBG)

12 13 1 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9

17 17 0 WR2 Chad Johnson Cin/5

18 18 0 WR3 Terrell Owens Dal/3

19 19 0 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9

20 20 0 WR5 Torry Holt StL/7

22 22 0 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3

23 23 0 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6

24 24 0 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9

29 29 0 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8

32 34 2 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6

 

[jurb26]

I don't really care all that much who the top WR is this year. Both Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison are offering some insane value IMO. Those are the guys I"m looking to get.

 

[Musesboy]

Every one of the top eight has a great chance to make the top ten this season if they play 16 games.

Chad Johnson looks almost certain to be there and I think he would manage it even if Wright had to start a few games.

Steve Smith has only been there once and has Keyshawn Johnson around this year, but I think he will still be top five.

Owens will make it if he doesn't self-destruct. As he is on his last life, I think he will behave. He has a tendency to miss a game or two, but I can't see him failing to make the ten.

Fitzgerald and Boldin are two I would be wary of. Fitzgerald has only made the top ten once and Boldin has had knee problems. I believe that Boldin is the main target but that both should make the top ten. Edge should make the Cardinals a lot more run oriented, but he should also give them more first downs and better overall success. It's possible that the likely reduced targets may be balanced by increased TDs. But the main reason I question these two guys is the QB situation. Warner was effective last year but he has only played 27 of the last 64 games. A few were due to demotion but most were injuries. If that happens again, Navarre is the most experienced QB on the roster. If they go with Leinart, despite two great receiving options I would be worried that he would encounter the usual rookie struggles.

Holt looks rock solid to me. If he plays anywhere near 16 games he will be in the top ten easily.

Moss hasn't been there since 2003 and will be adjusting to another new QB. Although Moss has massive talent, it's possible he will miss out, although I expect him to bounce back this year. There is a slight chance that Brooks could be benched if the Raiders fall out of contention too.

I am not worried about Harrison's age. He probably would have been 2nd or 3rd last year if the Colts had needed him to play all of the final two games. He doesn't look to be fading very fast from where I sit.

Chambers made the ten for the first time and he may start the season with Harrington. Even if Culpepper is ready, the two will probably take time to fully develop chemistry.

If two or three do miss out for some reason, who might appear in the top ten for the first time? Burress, now that he has played a season with Manning? Might Ward see increased targets with Randle El and Bettis gone? Is Darrell Jackson a candidate with 16 full games? Will the Colts rely on the pass more and end up with two top ten receivers?

 

[Verbal Kint]

I don't really care all that much who the top WR is this year. Both Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison are offering some insane value IMO. Those are the guys I"m looking to get.

I agree completely. I don't see any of these guys falling off too far. Whichever is available in round 3 are gonna be money. Anything above the end of round 2 is a wasted pick.

 

[MLBrandow]

In looking at the top 10 WRs, it seems that there are questions pertaining to each of them.

Fitz/Boldin (more balanced offense),

While I think any of these guys could be top 3, I wouldn't be suprised if any one of them dropped out of the top 10.  I think either Boldin or Fitz will be 8-9, and the other will be ~ #15. 

12   13   1   WR1   Steve Smith   Car/917  17  0  WR2  Chad Johnson  Cin/518  18  0  WR3  Terrell Owens  Dal/319  19  0  WR4  Larry Fitzgerald  Ari/920  20  0  WR5  Torry Holt  StL/722  22  0  WR6  Randy Moss  Oak/323  23  0  WR7  Marvin Harrison  Ind/624  24  0  WR8  Anquan Boldin  Ari/929  29  0  WR9  Chris Chambers  Mia/832  34  2  WR10  Reggie Wayne  Ind/6

*edited for clarity.I think Boldin might be a bit undervalued . I certainly don't understand why he's going later than Fitz.

Games where Warner/Boldin/Fitz were all healthy and starting a full game:

Boldin

4/62/0

8/119/0

8/105/1

10/115/0

11/156/1

9/114/0

=50/671/3

scales to: 133/1789/8

Fitz

13/155/1

4/70/0

9/104/1

4/41/1

8/129/0

4/23/0

=42/522/3

scales to: 112/1392/8

certainly the addition of Edge changes things. I put about an 80% cap on their numbers for this season because of it. (I expect about 550 attempts versus 670, which would also factor in running the ball about 28 times a game, versus the 22.5 they averaged last year)

Therefore, I come up with:

Boldin 2006 - 106/1431/6

Fitz 2006 - 90/1114/6

Call me crazy, but I think one of these guys looks like your "8-9", and the other looks like your "~15".

It doesn't look so mysterious to me.

 

[The Jacket]

I don't really care all that much who the top WR is this year. Both Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison are offering some insane value IMO. Those are the guys I"m looking to get.

If Harrison's value is insane as WR7, I don't even know how to describe Wayne's value.

 

[jurb26]

I don't really care all that much who the top WR is this year. Both Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison are offering some insane value IMO. Those are the guys I"m looking to get.

If Harrison's value is insane as WR7, I don't even know how to describe Wayne's value.

Harrison is going as WR7 at pick 2.10 on average.Wayne is going as WR10 at pick 3.6 on average.

I still see Harrison as the better value.

Side note, Moss has the same ADP as Harrison right now.

 

[EBF]

Holt is the safest pick and the best option as WR1 this season.

 

[Musesboy]

Holt is the safest pick and the best option as WR1 this season.

 

[The Jerk]

Therefore, I come up with:

Boldin 2006 - 106/1431/6

Fitz 2006 - 90/1114/6

Call me crazy, but I think one of these guys looks like your "8-9", and the other looks like your "~15".

It doesn't look so mysterious to me.

You're crazy. Well, maybe. I expect Fitzgerald to improve more than Boldin. Remember that Fitzgerald left college after his sophomore season. So even though he has two years under his belt with the Cardinals, he's the same age as many incoming rookies. He's nearly three years younger than Boldin.Fitzgerald has the desire and work ethic to be the best WR in the game. He nearly (and probably should have) won the Heisman Trophy his final year at Pitt. I fully expect him to keep progressing, more even than the typical third year WR. So I don't think Boldin is the clear choice at all. In fact, I would prefer Fitz.

 

[jurb26]

He nearly (and probably should have) won the Heisman Trophy his final year at Pitt.

Don't remind me.

 

[KCC]

The fact that there are so many WRs who could reasonably finish as #1 this season has me seriously considering drafting Gates before my first WR. (Assuming, of course, it's a TE required league.) Barring injury, he's a lock to finish as the top TE and most predict that he will do so by a wide enough margin to make him a decent value pick.

 

[Musesboy]

You're crazy. Well, maybe. I expect Fitzgerald to improve more than Boldin. Remember that Fitzgerald left college after his sophomore season. So even though he has two years under his belt with the Cardinals, he's the same age as many incoming rookies. He's nearly three years younger than Boldin.

Fitzgerald has the desire and work ethic to be the best WR in the game. He nearly (and probably should have) won the Heisman Trophy his final year at Pitt. I fully expect him to keep progressing, more even than the typical third year WR. So I don't think Boldin is the clear choice at all. In fact, I would prefer Fitz.

I am curious. How many games do you think Warner will start this year? If he does go down again, how effective do you think his replacement would be? Is there any chance he would get replaced without getting injured if the Cardinals miss the playoffs?

 

[MLBrandow]

You're crazy. Well, maybe. I expect Fitzgerald to improve more than Boldin. Remember that Fitzgerald left college after his sophomore season. So even though he has two years under his belt with the Cardinals, he's the same age as many incoming rookies. He's nearly three years younger than Boldin.

Fitzgerald has the desire and work ethic to be the best WR in the game. He nearly (and probably should have) won the Heisman Trophy his final year at Pitt. I fully expect him to keep progressing, more even than the typical third year WR. So I don't think Boldin is the clear choice at all. In fact, I would prefer Fitz.

Even so, it is pretty obvious who Warner's target of choice is when given both to choose from.I think both are overvalued anyway since Warner avoids the endzone whenever possible.

I've been flipping between Holt and Steve Smith as the first WR I target in mocks.

I also prefer Holt as the lowest risk lock for #1 WR this year, but if I'm targeting Bulger I don't like to have QB/WR combos.

 

[The Jerk]

The fact that there are so many WRs who could reasonably finish as #1 this season has me seriously considering drafting Gates before my first WR. (Assuming, of course, it's a TE required league.) Barring injury, he's a lock to finish as the top TE and most predict that he will do so by a wide enough margin to make him a decent value pick.

I think that's a reasonable strategy, especially if you're drafting later in the 3rd round at the time you take Gates. But in the spirit of this thread, the question mark on Gates is how effective Rivers will be in replacing Brees. Conventional wisdom suggests that inexperienced QBs rely more on their TE than WRs, almost like a security blanket. However, Gates is not your typical TE. He runs different routes and he demands more attention from secondaries -- or at least he should.Another thought on the WR position is that even though it's not clear who might emerge as the #1 receiver, there is still a good likelihood that the #1 WR comes out of the group listed at the start of this thread. There will be a dropoff once you get down to WR 10 or so. Maybe the strategy actually is to try to land two of this elite group rather than get none of them.

 

[BigRed]

Every one of the top eight has a great chance to make the top ten this season if they play 16 games.

Chad Johnson looks almost certain to be there and I think he would manage it even if Wright had to start a few games.

Steve Smith has only been there once and has Keyshawn Johnson around this year, but I think he will still be top five.

Owens will make it if he doesn't self-destruct. As he is on his last life, I think he will behave. He has a tendency to miss a game or two, but I can't see him failing to make the ten.

Fitzgerald and Boldin are two I would be wary of. Fitzgerald has only made the top ten once and Boldin has had knee problems. I believe that Boldin is the main target but that both should make the top ten. Edge should make the Cardinals a lot more run oriented, but he should also give them more first downs and better overall success. It's possible that the likely reduced targets may be balanced by increased TDs. But the main reason I question these two guys is the QB situation. Warner was effective last year but he has only played 27 of the last 64 games. A few were due to demotion but most were injuries. If that happens again, Navarre is the most experienced QB on the roster. If they go with Leinart, despite two great receiving options I would be worried that he would encounter the usual rookie struggles.

Holt looks rock solid to me. If he plays anywhere near 16 games he will be in the top ten easily.

Moss hasn't been there since 2003 and will be adjusting to another new QB. Although Moss has massive talent, it's possible he will miss out, although I expect him to bounce back this year. There is a slight chance that Brooks could be benched if the Raiders fall out of contention too.

I am not worried about Harrison's age. He probably would have been 2nd or 3rd last year if the Colts had needed him to play all of the final two games. He doesn't look to be fading very fast from where I sit.

Chambers made the ten for the first time and he may start the season with Harrington. Even if Culpepper is ready, the two will probably take time to fully develop chemistry.

If two or three do miss out for some reason, who might appear in the top ten for the first time? Burress, now that he has played a season with Manning? Might Ward see increased targets with Randle El and Bettis gone? Is Darrell Jackson a candidate with 16 full games? Will the Colts rely on the pass more and end up with two top ten receivers?

Not much to add, just wanted to say nice recap.IMO Owens is money this year and will be the top WR. The only thing stopping him are the many rocks in his head, but I think at least for this year he doesn't go "too far."

 

[Musesboy]

Not much to add, just wanted to say nice recap.

IMO Owens is money this year and will be the top WR. The only thing stopping him are the many rocks in his head, but I think at least for this year he doesn't go "too far."

Thanks

 

[BigRed]

The fact that there are so many WRs who could reasonably finish as #1 this season has me seriously considering drafting Gates before my first WR. (Assuming, of course, it's a TE required league.) Barring injury, he's a lock to finish as the top TE and most predict that he will do so by a wide enough margin to make him a decent value pick.

I think.

 

[Tom Servo]

Fitzgerald and Boldin are two I would be wary of. Fitzgerald has only made the top ten once and Boldin has had knee problems. I believe that Boldin is the main target but that both should make the top ten. Edge should make the Cardinals a lot more run oriented, but he should also give them more first downs and better overall success. It's possible that the likely reduced targets may be balanced by increased TDs. But the main reason I question these two guys is the QB situation. Warner was effective last year but he has only played 27 of the last 64 games. A few were due to demotion but most were injuries. If that happens again, Navarre is the most experienced QB on the roster. If they go with Leinart, despite two great receiving options I would be worried that he would encounter the usual rookie struggles.

I couldn't have said it better myself.