Torry Holt vs. Randy Moss vs. Terrell Owens (1 Viewer)

[Da Flyin Lion]

I'm starting to think my 2nd round pick would better be used on a top WR instead of a risky RB like Julius Jones or Domanick Davis. With a mid 2nd round pick it looks like the choices will be Holt, Moss or Owens.

There's been a lot of threads ranking the top tier of WRs at 7 deep but I'd like to narrow that down a little further. I'm bumping Smith, Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Harrison from this discussion for a few reasons. Smith will probalby be gone by the mid 2nd round pick. Johnson will need a healthy Palmer witch is still up in the air. Fitzgerald's stats could drop with the acquisition of Edge, and Harrison seems to have had slows starts the last few years and is just getting old.

So between Holt, Owens and Moss who will be the man this year.

Holt's biggest negative is the loss of Mike Martz and the greatest show on turf offense. However Linehan is now slouch. Chris Chambers had some huge games last year with Miami so it's not like this new offense won't throw the ball. Maybe just run more then last year. But still a top WR like Holt with a top QB, and an aging Isaac Bruce should still be up for the typicall 1300 yards 10 TDs.

TO should be a good boy this year since he's got a brand new contract. But even if he doesn't leave the field for disciplinary reasons, he still hasn't finished a season in 3 years. In '04 he missed the end of the season in Philly and missed the end of '03 in San Fran with a shoulder injury if I remember correctly. He seems to get groin injuries every year as well. If he stays healthy I think he's could get around 1500, 12 TD (higher then Holt) but with all of his other distractions no one seems to be talking about his injury record.

Moss in Minnesota was alway the #1 WR. I don't think Aaron Brooks should hurt his #s too much but I'm more concerned about what will happen if Brooks isn't in there at the end of the season. Still I think his ceiling is higher then Holts.

So basically, although Moss and Owens have a higher ceiling, Holt might be the safer pick in the 2nd round and maybe the most likely to get you the points during playoffs.

I'd like to hear what you guys think.

 

[mlball77]

I think you could really make a case for any of those three. But like you mentioned, the one thing that sort of separates Holt from the other two, is that he is the safest bet. Both Moss and Owens may have bigger upsides, but they both are a bit riskier as well.

 

[creeps1313]

This is the same thing im trying to figure out...and I dont have an answer. I think we need wait and see what happens during pre-season.

One question...what about Fitz, and Harrison, shouldnt they be included in the discussion?

 

[Cleat Spike]

I draft in the 6th spot this year and I'm really thinking of using this same strategy in round 2 and going RB-WR. It's a standard performance scoring system with .5 per reception. In that 2nd round, I pick 7th in a 12 teamer and have been landing Chad Johnson almots every time and I like it. Palmer is key, but right now I'm going off him coming back full go for week 1.

The only thing you may want to watch is if you take someone like Steven Jackson, Lamont, Rudi, Edge in the mid 1st round (depending on your slot) you could potentially end up with 2 guys from the same team early in your draft if you want one of the Big 5WR's for your mid 2nd round pick.

It doesn't really bother me having a Jackson/Holt but it's something to watch depending on your "eggs in one basket" preference.

I've been going S. Jackson, then Chad Johnson in a lot in mocks...then really leaving the 3rd open to taking a RB, or in some cases another WR in the 3rd. When I tried a second WR in the 3rd following Gold Tooth Johnson I was closing my eyes on who was going to be there at RB in the fourth, but Jamal Lewis dropped all the way to 4.07!!! I know he has some questions this year, but at that point it was worth it and you just make sure to cuff him!

You can almost guarantee The Big 5-6 won't be around when it comes back to you in the 3rd, pull the trigger in the 2nd, because just about every team behind you (and some in front) will take a WR in round 2...just start it and take the best RB in 3 as 8 WR's are likely to go in R2.

I just know that come draft day the guys I draft with may let a prime RB slip to me in the second so I have to be flexible and willing to take a lesser WR if that happens, but right now it's hard to take a ? RB over one of those top WR's, especially at .5 per reception. If you have ppr, then I'd look WR maybe, unless Westbrook somehow slips down?

 

[netnalp]

In my PPR league I have Holt as the #2 WR and might bump him to #1. I like that he gets a ton of receptions and that Gus Ferrotte is backing up Bulger, and knows the system from being in Miami is a really big plus for me as Holt shouldn't suffer if Bulger goes down. In my scoring Holt's scoring fell in these tiers.

Holt Games:14

Elite (6)

WR1 (10)

WR2 (13)

Subpar (1)

Steve Smith Games:16

Elite (9)

WR1 (11)

WR2 (11)

Subpar (5)

Comparing the two WR, Smith gives 3 more elite games but even if you add in Holt's injury games he'd only have 3 subpar games to Smith's 5. Not certain, but my gut says Smith's 5 subpar may have contributed to 2-3 losses, while Holt's 3 subpar 1-2 losses perhaps only one if Curtis was picked up on waivers.

Not certain on Chad Johnson, his percentage of targets has been steadily declining as the Bengals become more balanced on offense. There's concerns with Palmer, but there is the upside that Chris Perry will likley be cut to send a message to the team, once he is no longer injured.

TO is great for TD's but doesn't seem to get much more than the low 80's in catches and Parcells isn't known for passing teams.

With Randy Moss, he doesn't seem to happy with the Raiders, and has a rep for slacking off if he isn't happy. Plus, if Walters eventually takes the QB job from Brooks, will it hurt Moss's stats? Dunno

So to make a long post longer, take Holt =)

 

[Da Flyin Lion]

This is the same thing im trying to figure out...and I dont have an answer. I think we need wait and see what happens during pre-season.

One question...what about Fitz, and Harrison, shouldnt they be included in the discussion?

I didn't include Fitz and Harrison in this discussion for the reasons I mentioned above and also because I thought the discussion would be more productive and focused if we looked at only 3 WRs instead of 5. So is there anyone out there who is taking Moss or Owens over Holt?

It really looks like Holt is the way to go this year.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

So is there anyone out there who is taking Moss or Owens over Holt?

It really looks like Holt is the way to go this year.

Holt has been the way to go the last two years and will be this year too.If it's a choice of these three, for me it's Holt every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

[(HULK)]

If you play in a TE required league, I would recommend taking Gates.

He's got less questions, and his value is through the roof.

 

[Adam Sommer]

Ironically, I have all three of these guys in my big league

I agree though, Holt is the safest. TO 2nd, and Moss 3rd.

I believe that TO will behave this year (and then hold out next year for big $$)....Moss is dependent on a QB and his health.

 

[jurb26]

I'm not seeing what makes Holt such a safe pick this year. Sure he was in years past, but not this year IMO. He lost his pass happy coach, has a QB who can't stay healthy and his new coach is far more run based with a talented RB to go with him. I smell disapointment for Holt this year. If you want safe, go with Harrison. If you want top potential go with Moss or TO, whoever you like more.

Maybe some of you guys saying Holt is so safe (and theres LOTS of you) can elaborate for me. I'm really just not seeing it this year. What are you using to define safe?

 

[harrycarey]

Ironically, I have all three of these guys in my big league

I agree though, Holt is the safest. TO 2nd, and Moss 3rd.

I believe that TO will behave this year (and then hold out next year for big $$)....Moss is dependent on a QB and his health.

Leagues with more than 4 owners down?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Maybe some of you guys saying Holt is so safe (and theres LOTS of you) can elaborate for me. I'm really just not seeing it this year. What are you using to define safe?

Perhaps safer is a better term here. I question Randy Moss' physical health. I think he has a permanently bad back and his ankle always seems a question mark. Plus, he too has a new QB that may be as brainless a quarterback as I've ever seen.

Speaking of brainless, that's why I consider TO a riskier pick. I question his MENTAL health. He could obviously implode at any moment.

And Harrison has question marks too. I love the guy, but he's no spring chicken. And how much more will Wayne cut into his numbers?

 

[(HULK)]

Maybe some of you guys saying Holt is so safe (and theres LOTS of you) can elaborate for me.  I'm really just not seeing it this year. What are you using to define safe?

Perhaps safer is a better term here. I question Randy Moss' physical health. I think he has a permanently bad back and his ankle always seems a question mark. Plus, he too has a new QB that may be as brainless a quarterback as I've ever seen.

Speaking of brainless, that's why I consider TO a riskier pick. I question his MENTAL health. He could obviously implode at any moment.

And Harrison has question marks too. I love the guy, but he's no spring chicken. And how much more will Wayne cut into his numbers?

Again, more reasons why Gates is the correct choice here.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Maybe some of you guys saying Holt is so safe (and theres LOTS of you) can elaborate for me.  I'm really just not seeing it this year. What are you using to define safe?

Perhaps safer is a better term here. I question Randy Moss' physical health. I think he has a permanently bad back and his ankle always seems a question mark. Plus, he too has a new QB that may be as brainless a quarterback as I've ever seen.

Speaking of brainless, that's why I consider TO a riskier pick. I question his MENTAL health. He could obviously implode at any moment.

And Harrison has question marks too. I love the guy, but he's no spring chicken. And how much more will Wayne cut into his numbers?

Again, more reasons why Gates is the correct choice here.

Even if TE is not required? You're not concerned about Rivers not focusing on Gates like Brees did?

 

[(HULK)]

Maybe some of you guys saying Holt is so safe (and theres LOTS of you) can elaborate for me.  I'm really just not seeing it this year. What are you using to define safe?

Perhaps safer is a better term here. I question Randy Moss' physical health. I think he has a permanently bad back and his ankle always seems a question mark. Plus, he too has a new QB that may be as brainless a quarterback as I've ever seen.

Speaking of brainless, that's why I consider TO a riskier pick. I question his MENTAL health. He could obviously implode at any moment.

And Harrison has question marks too. I love the guy, but he's no spring chicken. And how much more will Wayne cut into his numbers?

Again, more reasons why Gates is the correct choice here.

Even if TE is not required? You're not concerned about Rivers not focusing on Gates like Brees did?

If TE is not required, disregard my Gates comment.I'm not concerned about Rivers... he knows Gates is his best and first option. I don't think Gates will skip a beat at all this year. I think all 3 of the WRs mentioned in this thread have larger questions looming than Gates. I see less risk with Gates, and plenty more value as Tony Gonzalez continues to decline.

 

[Bankerguy]

I like Holt from that group.

 

[Tau837]

As much as I don't like him, I'm surprised TO hasn't gotten more votes here.

In the past two years:

Holt averaged 12.8 ppg (FBG scoring) in 30 games

Owens averaged 15.1 ppg (FBG scoring) in 21 games

Moss averaged 10.5 ppg (FBG scoring) in 29 games

Owens has clearly been the best performer on the field. So the only reason not to take him over the others is because you are less comfortable he will remain on the field. But I have a hard time predicting injuries, and I expect him to be on best behavior in year 1 in Dallas.

I like Holt better, but I'd probably grudingly take Owens. No chance I'd consider Moss over the other two.

 

[goonsquad]

Holt

Owens

R. Moss

 

[Real Man of Genius]

Holt

Owens

R. Moss

 

[Brunswick]

As much as I don't like him, I'm surprised TO hasn't gotten more votes here.

In the past two years:

Holt averaged 12.8 ppg (FBG scoring) in 30 games

Owens averaged 15.1 ppg (FBG scoring) in 21 games

Moss averaged 10.5 ppg (FBG scoring) in 29 games

Owens has clearly been the best performer on the field. So the only reason not to take him over the others is because you are less comfortable he will remain on the field. But I have a hard time predicting injuries, and I expect him to be on best behavior in year 1 in Dallas.

I like Holt better, but I'd probably grudingly take Owens. No chance I'd consider Moss over the other two.

Last 2 yearsOwens= only wr on the team

Holt = #1 choice but plenty of other quality wr targets

Moss = played hurt the last 2 years in several games which lowered his ppg

That said I take Holt this year, safer pick plus not much chance he impodes this year mentally

 

[Leroy's Aces]

I would take Owens, then Moss, then Holt.

Owens and Moss each have a shot at 1500 yards and 15 TDs each this year, or any year they are healthy. Holt is not a red zone guy and never has been. Holt has little chance of getting more than 10 or 11 TDs each and every year.

Holt is supposed to be the safe play, but as others have said, he has a new offense, a bad o-line, he is getting dinged here and there, and he is at the point that WRs can sometimes break down. I do not think he will, but he could start a decline this year. (See the Herman article - Holt is in year 8 I think - and yes, Owens and Moss have those issues, too.)

As others have said, Owens is a freak, and he looks to be in fantastic shape as usual. I have not seen Moss lately, but he usually stays in top condition. He was averaging 24.5 yards per catch last year prior to his injury.

To me, it is your drafting philosophy. If you want to put together a solid team with solid players and a solid shot at the playoffs, then take Holt. If you want to put together a team that he a good chance to be championship caliber, but that is very explosive, drafting players like Owens and Moss will get you there. It is boom or bust, but who cares if you are the 3rd or 4th best team in your 12 team league. People say you cannot win your league in the first few rounds. That is true, but if you draft a potential 1500 yard, 15 TD wide receiver with a few risks, you can screw up other parts of your team and still make a playoff run with a couple of free agents.

There is a reason you are asking about those 3 players in the same draft area, when Owens and Moss had crappy years in 2005, and Holt had a very good year last year. If you look to the future and not at last year and you should see that Owens and Moss are both strong plays that can lead you to the promised land. Next year, they could both be drafted in round 1 (again) after they go off this year.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

You've got the wrong Moss